Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 5

hivue · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting Deanger (Reply 93):
can you imagine a situation where you would have not altered course at all as part of whatever you were dealing with? Is there any reason why you wouldn't initiate a turn away from the alps?

I'm not a pilot, but if the crew were incapacitated I can imagine it.

Quoting Deanger (Reply 93):
So isn't the answer to why not communicate -- Because they didn't even get to "Aviate."

That could be correct, which would suggest a catastrophic failure of some sort.

anfromme · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 89):
The "fix" is a procedure to turn off ADRUs, which means pressing two buttons......
As usual far less interesting than what the media made you believe.....

I know that that was the fix in the case of the LH flight. But I was referring to the Germanwings statement made during yesterday's press conference that a permanent fix for the AoA issue had been put in place on the crashed plane.

The actual statement, from Germanwings' chief pilot Stefan-Kenan Scheib, when asked about the LH AoA incident was:
"Dieses Computerproblem, was der 321 jawohl gehabt hat, da kann man aktuell bei unseren Fliegern sagen, dass diese Computer ausgetauscht wurden. Die hatten jetzt die neueste Version von Airbus verbaut, so dass dieser Fehler dort eigentlich nicht hätte vorkommen dürfen."
Quick translation:
"Regarding the computer issue that the 321 encountered, we can tell you at the moment that the affected computers have been in our planes. They have the very latest version from Airbus installed which means that this particular issue should not have occurred here."

Source (in German):
http://www1.wdr.de/mediathek/video/s...onferenzzumflugzeugabsturz100.html
Statement regarding the A321 incident starts at ~10:50min.

In other news, it is now being reported that the FDR has also been found and recovered, but that it was severely damaged and its data unit/memory card had not been found yet.

FlyingSicilian · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 83):
My comment: It is very interesting that there was an official comment on a lot of Turkish on board yet not one single passport.
This total only adds up to 125 what are the other 25 nationalities.
May they all rest in PEACE!

Intra-Schengen passports are not needed which was the initial challenge.
AFAIK they were just going off of names/surnames and if they "sounded" or looked to be from those countries and after investigation found out they were in fact citizens of other countries.

flyingturtle · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting Norlander (Reply 98):

Now I'm right again about the windscreen... o.O

Quoting Deanger (Reply 93):
Specifically, can you imagine a situation where you would have not altered course at all as part of whatever you were dealing with? Is there any reason why you wouldn't initiate a turn away from the alps? Or maybe that's too open-ended. Given that you were losing altitude for some reason (commanded, un-commanded) and assuming you were able to trouble-shoot, is there a reason you would continue into the Alps?

The huge problem is that the descent wasn't *that* steep, not indicative of a real emergency. Nevertheless, the pilots decided to descend, but did not follow up (for whatever reason) with a plan on how to continue after descending to a safe altitude (for whatever reason).

One tiny reason for heading towards the alps would be flying to GVA. Germanwings flies there, and there the passengers could be more easily be catered because company staff is already there. (Other Germanwing bases are in NCE and MRS, though. But if needed, the passengers could be sent forward by train much more easily if they landed in GVA - about 2 hours 45 by train to BSL (another Germanwings base), and from BSL to DUS by train is 4 hours 20.

I would really hate it if the pilots were discussing to troubleshoot something in AF447 style, descending all the way until a big mass of rock appears in front of the plane.

David

MadameConcorde · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:41 pm

Quoting 777way (Reply 100):
Surprised at the number of non-European nationalities onboard this intra-europe flight, two Iranians also listed no

15:29 GMT:

Germanwings cannot confirm the information that no Russian citizens were on board its crashed plane, company spokesman Andreas Engel told RIA Novosti. He added that not all the passengers’ nationalities have been established yet.

RT link
http://rt.com/news/243533-plane-crash-german-wings/

MadameConcorde · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:48 pm

President Hollande is speaking.

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/faits-div...cherches-est-imminente_858171.html

The sound is bad.

[Edited 2015-03-25 08:50:23]

motif1 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:51 pm

Press conference started
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-32046257 in English

InsideMan · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 104):
I would really hate it if the pilots were discussing to troubleshoot something in AF447 style, descending all the way until a big mass of rock appears in front of the plane.

I would wager that pilots in the Lufthansa Group are among the best trained in the world. That doesn't mean they can't make mistakes, but not like this.....

gbrazil · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
1. Front windscreen fails, perhaps even breaks.

Makes sense when you consider the acft was 20-odd years old.

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Hollande confirms CVR recovered but not yet analyzed, FDR not found yet.

Delta777Jet · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 104):
One tiny reason for heading towards the alps would be flying to GVA.

Believe me, if they had chance to think this, they would have had chance to talk to ATC first.
They just gone down enroute without any plan and for whatever reason. Looking on the debris and the state everything is in, it will be impossible to find out what happened to this flight if the recorders can't be read. Very disturbing.

sebolino · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:57 pm

L'enveloppe de la deuxième boîte noire a été repérée, mais pas son contenu. Les recherches se poursuivent, selon M. Hollande.

-> the second "black box" has been found empty !

Or more accurately: only the envelop has been found.

[Edited 2015-03-25 08:59:34]

CALTECH · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:58 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
Try holding your breath for 30 seconds, see if you die.

Sea level pressure is not the same. At 38,000ft, loss of consciousness is less then a minute, and depending on the individual, loss of reason and clarity is much quicker then that.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 43):
Quoting bgm (Reply 11):You're missing the point he was trying to make, and that is the body can survive without oxygen for 30 seconds.

Not at altitude.

First one becomes befuddled, the ability to think clearly is lost rapidly at that altitude, like you are getting progressively drunk with each passing second. And it just gets worse till unconsciousness hits, unless oxygen is provided. When I went through altitude chamber training at Beale AFB, you could see who were the violent drunks, and those who you would party with.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 43):
Quoting Rara (Reply 29):His assertion was that all passengers and crew were dead within 30 seconds from asphyxation. Living room or not, that's just medically non-sensical.

Dead, no. But the essence of his point was correct.

30-60 seconds window to get things sorted before it is too late. Yes, death takes longer then loss of consciousness which in turn is much later then the onset of clouded reasoning and judgement. And each person has a different threshold, but it will still get you.

Had a 10 question quiz we were to answer after taking off our O2 masks in the altitude chamber. The last question, was how far could a person run into a forest before that person started to run out of that forest. Tried to write 'halfway', but it came out as 'middle of the trees', and my pencil trailed off towards the bottom of the form as I lost consciousness.

At 30 seconds, you should still be alive, but unconscious. Not a good thing in a aircraft.

DALCE · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:59 pm

Quoting gbrazil (Reply 109):
Makes sense when you consider the acft was 20-odd years old.

NO, it does not! Those windows don't last 20 years and have probably been replaced many times during all those years.

TheSonntag · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:59 pm

Obviously we now know the limits of black boxes. There have not been many crashes where airplanes impacted hard rock with such a high velocity.

Merkel seems to be really touched and it seems very honest what she is saying.

r2rho · Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:59 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 33):
The plane was untertaken a smaller check the day before the accident. In this, it has for example been disclosed, that there might have been a smaller problem with a door in the nose of the place. The door opens to a compartment, where the computers of the plane are placed and need cooling during the flight. When the airplane is on the ground, this door is opend. The danish sources clame, that if that door fell open during the flight, it could mean that cabin pressure has disappeared".

That sounds like the avionics ventilation extraction. It's a small opening. Nice try, but the Packs can handle that, potentially without decompression, and certainly not a major one.

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 110):
Hollande confirms CVR recovered but not yet analyzed, FDR not found yet.

There seems to be confusion here.

How many boxes have been found? One? Both? Where are they? What is the condition of each?

flyingturtle · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 108):
make mistakes, but not like this.....

I really hope so. Such abominable examples of pilot error and Crew Resource Mismanagement happen so rare with paid pilots that's it is not possible to establish a sound statistical relationship between such "mistakes" and specific airlines.

Who could have thought of AF447 before it happened?

David

JJJ · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 105):
He added that not all the passengers’ nationalities have been established yet.

A woman with a very Russian name (and accent to match) was interviewed on Spanish TV saying a relative was travelling on the A/C.

Might be a Spanish relative or Russian-born Spanish citizen, though.

aircatalonia · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:01 pm

I heard from an "expert" on TV that the standard procedure in case of depressurization is to initiate an emergency descent and to deviate 15º from the flight path, which coincides with course of the flight.

4U9525 Tracklog

Can someone confirm that this procedure exists?

My apologies if this has been explained in the previous threads.

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 115):
Obviously we now know the limits of black boxes. There have not been many crashes where airplanes impacted hard rock with such a high velocity.

I bet if we look at the testing parameters into the construction of black boxes, flying them at a nose dive into a mountain (or the equivalent thereof) is one of them. In fact, it would seem to be an obvious one for me.

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:02 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 117):
How many boxes have been found? One? Both? Where are they? What is the condition of each?

CVR was found but is damaged, FDR has not been found, only the outer casing, but without the actual FDR (the device that actually records the data).

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:03:06]

sebolino · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:02 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 117):
How many boxes have been found? One? Both? Where are they? What is the condition of each?

The "envelop" of the FDR has been found, according to F. Hollande

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting sebolino (Reply 123):
The "envelop" of the FDR has been found, according to F. Hollande

Is this the orange casing we see in photos?

hivue · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 117):
How many boxes have been found? One? Both?

Both.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 117):
Where are they?

With the BEA.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 117):
What is the condition of each?

CVR still being analyzed. Apparently nothing yet. DFDR missing the chip where the data is stored.

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:06 pm

BEA press conference starting...

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:06 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 125):
CVR still being analyzed. Apparently nothing yet. DFDR missing the chip where the data is stored.

Then we can put that on the list of being unrecoverable. No way it survived and if it did it would be buried in the rock face by now.

sebolino · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:07 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 124):
Is this the orange casing we see in photos?

No, I don't think so. The FDR envelop (and also the content which is still searched) is still on the crash site if I understand well.

A342 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:07 pm

In no way I want to fuel speculation or anything, but this issue got me interested.

Let's try to approximate if the windshield would have blown outwards or inwards using this tool:

http://www.aerospaceweb.org/design/scripts/atmosphere/

Internal cabin pressure (equivalent to 8000 feet): approx. 752 hPa
Total pressure (static pressure + compressible dynamic pressure) at FL380, Mach 0.78, ISA conditions: approx. 309 hPa

(For you guys arguing oxygen starvation, static pressure at FL380 is approx. 207 hPa compared to 1013.5 hPa at sea level.)

Thus if it had fragmented, I reckon it would have blown outwards. However, if fragments could find their way back through the hole I don't know.

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:07 pm

BEA lead investigator, assisted by BFU and Spanish equivalent

- Technical advisors from Airbus, Germanwings, Lufthansa

- more organization details

- difficult site for an investigation

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:09:04]

motif1 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 126):
BEA press conference starting...

Could you post the link?

sebolino · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting Motif1 (Reply 131):
Could you post the link?

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/live/20...e-haute-provence_4600165_3214.html

mila · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:08 pm

I think there has been a missing chip before also but later found. Was that the GOL crash perhaps?

D L X · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 127):

Quoting hivue (Reply 125):
CVR still being analyzed. Apparently nothing yet. DFDR missing the chip where the data is stored.

Then we can put that on the list of being unrecoverable. No way it survived and if it did it would be buried in the rock face by now.

If the chip still exists, and was not consumed by fire, based on my knowledge of solid state storage, it can still likely be read. It just needs to be found.

motif1 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:11 pm

Aparently the press conference is available on the BBC web site with translation:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-32046257

sebolino · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:11 pm

"Des données utilisables ont été extraites de la première boîte noire."

Usable data extracted from the CVR.

richierich · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:14 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 104):
I would really hate it if the pilots were discussing to troubleshoot something in AF447 style, descending all the way until a big mass of rock appears in front of the plane.

I find it much more likely that the pilots were unable to communicate.

Eight minutes is quite a long time to have not released a single mayday or attempt to contact LH maintenance for some sort of troubleshooting. Of course it is possible that the pilots were dealing with a myriad of other issues but the controlled, uniform descent of the flight path leads me to think that this might not be the case.

I know sabotage is not off the table but it is somewhat unlikely, unless new information comes to light anyway. I think that whatever event triggered the descent was quick; this crew was likely not conscious in the minutes just prior to impact. Hopefully the CVR can yield enough information to point the investigators to the right place.

In a somewhat morbid question, have the search teams started recovering remains and/or debris from the crash site? How are they planning to bring these off the mountain? Will it all be done by helicopter? Or will a path or road have to be forged to the scene to bring some sort of equipment there? (This has been done with crashes in remote areas in the past.)

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:17 pm

BEA director unwilling to say whether the pilots were speaking during the descent yet.

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:17:40]

aircatalonia · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:18 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 138):
BEA director unwilling to say whether the pilots were speaking during the descent.

Unbelievable. They come out to say the have the voices and they don't say anything else!

JmeDubya · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:19 pm

If the plane did depressurize and the pilots were able to mask, how long does the pilot O2 supply last in an A320? Ive seen the bottles for pilots in other aircraft and know they aren't overly large, maybe 15 minutes? Does anyone know the maintenance routine on this system? Would it have been a check item in the recent A check preformed? Am I correct in thinking crew O2 is an actual bottle on the A320, not an oxygen generator?

IIRC during previous decompression incidents there have been times the O2 didn't work do to damage. (UA811) And would the flight crew be considering O2 time for PAX? (Ive heard its considerably less, like maybe less than 5 min) At 2-3000fpm decent it would take a very long time to come down to breathable air from 38000, correct?

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:29:04]

motif1 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:20 pm

They have not found the FDR yet!

wjcandee · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 15):
Just saying, what if the pilot's first reaction was to adjust to FL10 and NOT to don his O2 mask?

Riiight. Because they don't train on this scenario over and over and over and over and over. You guys act as if a major airline's training department and a major world government's regulatory agency haven't thought of things obvious enough for you to know about them.

THIS was the best post so far in this thread:

Quoting moo (Reply 17):
Edit: apparently I was talking out of my rear end, so edited to remove bad info

SYDSpotter · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 139):
Unbelievable. They come out to say the have the voices and they don't say anything else!

It would be irresponsible to release information in piecemeal (and hence start rampant speculation) before the full picture is determined. Whilst a fast resolution is desirable, releasing incomplete findings or findings which turn out to be incorrect would be unfair to the families involved and would be counterproductive.

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:25 pm

This press conference is not going well. I think the director just wants to say "I'm not saying anything", but you can guess how the press is going to spin "I can't confirm that the voices are the pilots" into hijacking scenarios etc..

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:25:24]

Unflug · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 138):
BEA director unwilling to say whether the pilots were speaking during the descent yet.

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 139):
Unbelievable. They come out to say the have the voices and they don't say anything else!

I understood that they have NOT yet been able to read any data from the CVR, which means that they cannot have the voices.

Edit: This is what I understood listening to the live conference, the written information on the BBC site says something different.

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:28:58]

racko · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:27 pm

Quoting Unflug (Reply 145):
I understood that they have NOT yet been able to read any data from the CVR, which means that they cannot have the voices.

Then you understood it wrong.

They have the audio file from the voice recorder and have listened to it, they are just not willing to discuss the content at the moment.

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:27:43]

LTU330 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:27 pm

Crew O2 is indeed a bottle. The quantity is checked on every daily check and the Flight Crew themselves have a check to perform on the masks as part of their pre-flight checks. The minimum quantity permitted for dispatch varies depending on the number of crew, so if you had a check pilot for example, the minimum required crew O2 would be higher.

LTC8K6 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:29 pm

Quoting Motif1 (Reply 141):
They have not found the FDR yet!

Correct.

They have found parts of the FDR, but not the part that contains the memory modules.

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:31:59]

SYDSpotter · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:30 pm

Quoting racko (Reply 144):
This press conference is not going well. I think the director just wants to say "I'm not saying anything", but you can guess how the press is going to spin "I can't confirm that the voices are the pilots" into hijacking scenarios etc..

The press keep asking him the same question, and he has rightly so responded by saying he will make no further comment.

Another member of the press asked the question of whether there were lithium batteries in the cargo hold. The BEA director was unable to confirm the contents of the cargo.

flyingturtle · Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 137):
I find it much more likely that the pilots were unable to communicate.

But stranger things have happened (remember AF447). As far as I remember the pilots didn't call Mayday either over the Southern Atlantic.

Quoting richierich (Reply 137):
In a somewhat morbid question, have the search teams started recovering remains and/or debris from the crash site? How are they planning to bring these off the mountain? Will it all be done by helicopter? Or will a path or road have to be forged to the scene to bring some sort of equipment there? (This has been done with crashes in remote areas in the past.)

As an avid and longtime reader of a funeral director's blog I'm pretty sure they will collect the remains in plastic bags, on which the exact location of the place of discovery will be noted. The remains can be very small (speak of 2 to 5 inches long), and anatomical knowledge won't help you to determine if it's a human remain or not. You just go for the color...

I suppose they will bring up a diesel-electric generator up there to power some freezers, and as soon as one cooled box is full, fly it down to the village for transportation to a medical institute (DNA analysis, perhaps identification by tooth).

They will probably bring up a bulldozer to build a platform on where to work (think of the freezers). It will probably look like this... a little tent/container village: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Riesending-zeltstadt2.jpg

The image above is, by the way, of the Riesending cave rescue last year in Germany: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riesending_cave

David

[Edited 2015-03-25 09:34:38]

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