|Quoting DDR (Reply 59):|
So it seems that decompression can be ruled out according to the statement released today. This makes it almost more mysterious.
I also read that decompression now seems unlikely, at least 'explosive' decompression, and that's the only type of decompression that could have occurred between the final (apparently normal) ATC transmission by the crew and things going awry.
I personally believe that the crew were incapacitated fairly quickly by 'something' and were not in a position to transmit anything on radio during the 8 minute (approx) descent.
Regardless of the protocol of 'flying the plane' taking precedence over radio calls, I simply refuse to accept that, over an eight minute period, the crew did not have time to say a short phrase on the radio. German precision alone would ensure that even in a critical situation, at least a short transmission would have been made at some point over the eight minutes. Listen to the SWR111 ATC recording and you will hear a number of (very professional) transmissions made even when things were becoming quite critical. I think that their excellent emergency progress communication with ATC only stopped when cables were burned through and systems were quickly failing. Even with smoke hoods on and the instruments virtually unreadable, they were still trying their best to continue a dialogue with ATC.
This then leads to some other form of incapacitation in the case of GWI 9525. We are therefore in the realms of speculation to suggest; fire/fumes/other poisonous gas/malicious incident on board, etc etc.
Within an hour of hearing about the crash and seeing the last eight minutes of ADSB data (which I saw within an hour of the crash), I immediately thought that the crew had found themselves dealing quite suddenly with an emergency, had set an emergency descent on the MCP
but had entered a wrong level off altitude, then got so engrossed with addressing the emergency situation that they failed to check the descent progress in low visibility or cloud until it was too late. It wouldn't be the first time that type of scenario has occurred. I then discovered that there wasn't much cloud around at the time. When I heard that there were no radio transmissions, this scenario quickly fell apart for me.
The authorities have been very quiet about the fighter jet(s) which was/were scrambled to intercept GWI 9525 after communication stopped. It appears that at least one fighter did catch up with the doomed plane but we have not heard what was observed by the intercepting jet's crew. I don't want to start any needless speculation but the possibility crossed my mind that GWI9525 could even have been 'taken out' at low altitude by a military jet to ensure that it wasn't a terrorist on board attempting to crash into a town or building, albeit there aren't many such places in the crash area. That would explain there being no evidence of a fuel fire on the ground, ie. fuel burned up in the air. Anyway, don't get carried away with those thoughts, they have no source other than in my mind and the debris field is quite concentrated.
Until we get a few more pieces in the jigsaw, we can only speculate. I just hope we get something quicker than in the case of MH370 or Air Asia 8501.
For those who have said that recent airline accidents have dented their confidence in flying, consider the very true statement made today by the CEO of Lufthansa. Lufthansa or its subsidiaries have NEVER lost a plane during cruise until yesterday. Think about it, this is a truly amazing feat. The hours of cruise flying over the history of the airline are uncountable!