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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:24 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 99):
've no idea as to how you can look at the totality of the event and possibly remain open to a truly tragic and inadvertent accident. Zaharie, the timing of the diversion, the ensuing flight path, Hishammuddin, Anwar, Malaysia, MAS ops room etc, etc...But I understand your wanting very much to appear 'open-minded', I suppose.

It's not about wanting to appear 'open-minded'. It's about actually being 'open-minded' and not being 'close-minded'.

I have no idea how anybody can say with 100% certainty that they know what happend without a doubt at all.
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AIRWALK
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:27 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 34):
I think that if the circumstance of a FO on his first flight without training wheels, and a senior training pilot occurred in any American (or whatever) airline, the junior guy would do as he was told. No argument at all

I agree. Even if a request to leave by a senior pilot did arouse suspicion in the younger, many pilots would still do it, training flight or not. Most likely the request would be met with uncertainty but would still be followed through.
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:42 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 100):
I have no idea how anybody can say with 100% certainty that they know what happend without a doubt at all.

I have no doubt that Zaharie was the actor responsible for this tragedy. In fact, I'd bet my life on it.

As to how everything transpired, well, of course, I have many doubts and unanswered questions. My only hope is that one day the truth will be revealed, and the families can have some degree of closure. Freaking awful that they have had to endure this unfathomable pain. When people at the highest levels of govt. know exactly what occurred that morning, well, it must be maddening for the NOK.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:05 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 102):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 100):
I have no idea how anybody can say with 100% certainty that they know what happend without a doubt at all.

I have no doubt that Zaharie was the actor responsible for this tragedy. In fact, I'd bet my life on it.

That's a big call!

I wish I was so certain what happened to MH370 because then I wouldn't be thinking about MH370 everyday or be in this thread / on the internet so often still searching for answers - searching for something, anything - trying to make sense out of this unprecedented mystery...

I'm happy for you that in your mind you are 100% certain what happened.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 102):
My only hope is that one day the truth will be revealed, and the families can have some degree of closure.

  

Agreed 100%
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oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:33 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 103):
That's a big call!

It is, and I stand by it.

Not only does it all add up (for me, I understand where others may see it quite differently. Fair enough.), but all other scenarios (that I can possibly dream up) fail to even approach plausibility. There are so many holes in any other scenario that I have ruled them out. They just make NO sense.

Fariq would be the only possibility, and I would bet my life (for a whole host of reasons) that he was nothing other than a victim of Z's heinous act.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 103):
I'm happy for you that in your mind you are 100% certain what happened.

I'm just sad for the NOK, tbh. But thanks. Don't be a hater (I'm a good guy...just frustrated at the seeming lack of consensus, for the families sake).

[Edited 2015-03-30 20:34:19]
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:53 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 99):

I've no idea as to how you can look at the totality of the event and possibly remain open to a truly tragic and inadvertent accident. Zaharie, the timing of the diversion, the ensuing flight path, Hishammuddin, Anwar, Malaysia, MAS ops room etc, etc...But I understand your wanting very much to appear 'open-minded', I suppose.

No way in hell this was an accident.

And yet stranger things have happened before. The case against Captain Zaharie is just as circumstantial as all the other theories that have been put forward. No way in hell anyone can be absolutely certain of another person's guilt based on an 8 month old Facebook post.

Many in my social circle who have actually FLOWN with the Captain and knew him better than any of us here feel the same way.
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WingedMigrator
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:06 am

Quoting awthompson (Reply 92):
Would an extremely high speed impact into remote ocean produce very much floating debris?

Quite literally tons of floating debris. None of which would be likely to go near any shore for several years, assuming it could even float for that long.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 102):
I have no doubt that Zaharie was the actor responsible for this tragedy. In fact, I'd bet my life on it.

Duly noted.

I sure look forward to the wreckage being found and the FDR being recovered. That will tell the full story.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:06 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 102):
I have no doubt that Zaharie was the actor responsible for this tragedy. In fact, I'd bet my life on it.

Really? Oh man the levels of passion this thread are getting to unthinkable levels...arent you willing at least consider the Plane was highjacked and landed somewhere else..I mean stranger things have happened before...

TRB
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oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:21 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 107):
Really? Oh man the levels of passion this thread are getting to unthinkable levels...arent you willing at least consider the Plane was highjacked and landed somewhere else..I mean stranger things have happened before...

Consider? Of course. Rule out? Unquestionably. You do realize that 238/9 people have disappeared, and that no intel agencies the world over seem to believe there is a damn thing to be done about it. Not to mention a missing 777.

If this were anything nefarious other than a rogue Zaharie, rest assured a full 12 months out we would know about it, IMHO.

I won't even bother with all the other holes in regard to this scenario that make it laughable.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:24 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
Not only does it all add up (for me, I understand where others may see it quite differently. Fair enough.), but all other scenarios (that I can possibly dream up) fail to even approach plausibility. There are so many holes in any other scenario that I have ruled them out.

I have said for some time now that at this stage, given what we know, the 'Captain did it' scenario ticks the most boxes IMHO. However, for me, it does not tick all of the boxes and there are some other scenarios that cannot be ruled out which therefore still makes them possible.

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 105):
The case against Captain Zaharie is just as circumstantial as all the other theories that have been put forward. No way in hell anyone can be absolutely certain of another person's guilt based on an 8 month old Facebook post.

Many in my social circle who have actually FLOWN with the Captain and knew him better than any of us here feel the same way.

In the last thread tailskid posted a link to the following article which mentioned some things that the Captain wrote / said:

Quoting tailskid (Reply 174):
‘‘There is a rebel in each and everyone of us...let it out!’’ he wrote more than two weeks after the May 2013 vote. http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/worl.../L9SysfTgmlfsklq7TbKQgK/story.html

However, at the end of the very same article, it says:


"""Friends of Zaharie do not buy the theory he is behind the missing plane. The pilot was the type who would take care of his passengers, Mohd Nasir said, citing discussions with acquaintances.

‘‘No matter what his beliefs may be, he is still a professional,’’ Mohd Nasir said. ‘‘He may have his own political views, but to bring down an airplane? That is out of the question. Not Zaharie.’’"""

[Edited 2015-03-30 22:25:26]
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oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:34 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 105):
The case against Captain Zaharie is just as circumstantial as all the other theories that have been put forward.

LOL. Straight from the guy living 25km from Hishammuddin's place of business. And just what theories are you referring to?

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 105):
No way in hell anyone can be absolutely certain of another person's guilt based on an 8 month old Facebook post.

My certainty hardly comes from his voracious facebook postings, as you disingenuously attempt to frame it.

Perp knew how to fly the bleep out of the 777. Perp was last voice heard. Perp was perfectly positioned at the hand over to HCM ATC. Perp failed to read back frequency (despite it being his habit). Perp was intimately familiar with regional FIR's and radar installations. Perp clearly had a vendetta against H, BN, UMNO, MAS etc...Perp was flying with jr FO. Ticks off all the boxes of motive, opportunity and CAPABILITY. And flawless execution.

Unless you believe in the most elaborate and flawless hijacking one could dream up, by occupants of M9-MRO heretofore unknown and still undiscovered, ah, I THINK NOT.   
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:35 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
I'm just sad for the NOK, tbh. But thanks. Don't be a hater (I'm a good guy...just frustrated at the seeming lack of consensus, for the families sake).

There is no evidence against Zaharie, how could there be a consensus? And what good is it for the families to tell them blatant lies?
 
tomlee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:25 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
This was a quicker and much cheaper solution to implement than something that is still just an idea...

This assumes it fixes the problem. The door design was last updated just a few years ago so the door design isn't exactly a finished subject. Two people in the cockpit doesn't stop a planned attack and there is nothing stopping them after they take over. Three people in the cockpit at all times would make the odds of failure low (But that does cost a lot of money).

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 97):
The door on GW failed to allow authorized access.

MH370 has not even been found yet. If MH370 is ever found and it turns out to be an accident, which most people including myself still think is a possibility, the cockpit door might have played no part at all in what happened to MH370.

MH370 is very unlikely to have been a normal accident. Even if it does turn out that something non-malicious happened why people could not get into the cockpit could still be explained by the door being locked out by either an accident caused (fire/decompression/chemical) delusional/disorientated captain/first officer pushing the switch in the wrong direction and then the others who may have had portable O2 units run out of air and where incapacitated the same

It very well could have played a part in explaining why no one could get into the cockpit. In a fume/decompression scenario if the pilots became disorientated or confused due to some O2 supplemental failure they could accidentally push the switch to lockdown and the cabin crew wouldn't be able to operate the door until their portable O2 units also ran out and everyone was incapacitated and then the flight just flew itself for hours with everyone already dead.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 99):
Suicide bombers (with a statistical few outliers) are not by any clinical definition insane. They are driven to act by a cause they view as greater than themselves, and worth sacrificing for. The slaughter of innocents (and sometimes enemy combatants) is an means to an end, and a justifiable means from the perpetrators pov. Zaharie made reference to this 'concept' (of sacrifice, not of mass murder) often, imploring Malaysians to rebel and not sit idle in the face of repression.

The only absurdity is in your poorly chosen analogy.

Suicide bombers, terrorists, ... are all considered to be insane to me as the definition of being insane is to act in a manner which your perception, behaviour and social interaction are seriously compromised (blowing people up because your an extremist would qualify for all three)

I'm no doctor so I'm not giving clinical diagnostic information.

Not really concerned with the motive or anything, I think it is clear I just want the door to be improved because it doesn't make logical sense in light of MH370 and GW. There are two sides of the coin one is understanding why it happened and the other is fixing it so that it doesn't happen again. Even if it turns out MH370 isn't due to the door the security vulnerability still exists and this case demonstrates the potential for an hours long mission to anywhere basically and GW demonstrates with certainty that the security hole exists.

Saying the fix is to quell/rid of all rebellious thoughts/people it is not within the scope of the aerospace industry. Also ( http://mh370.mot.gov.my/download/FactualInformation.pdf ) I'm not seeing any officially reported red flags for the captain. I never really understood why in the theory of a takeover it is the captain only and not some other actor or the FO.
 
oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:33 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 109):
"""Friends of Zaharie do not buy the theory he is behind the missing plane. The pilot was the type who would take care of his passengers, Mohd Nasir said, citing discussions with acquaintances.

Funny then that Nic Huzlan, former MAS chief pilot, who knew Zaharie well, all but points a finger at him.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 113):
I never really understood why in the theory of a takeover it is the captain only and not some other actor or the FO.

Then you understand almost nothing about the event, with respect.

On another note, I agree with you about the issue of the door and view your solution favorably. It NEEDS to be addressed sooner rather than after more deaths result because of the flaw. Keep at it!

[Edited 2015-03-30 23:34:16]
 
tomlee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:10 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 114):
Then you understand almost nothing about the event

Is there any hard evidence which exonerates the FO?
 
FlyDeltaJetsATL
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:35 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 87):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 78):
How do we know that? Have we found a blackbox to confirm?
Because of the pings / satellite handshakes.

The Inmarsat data confirmed how long the plane flew for.

No, the Inmarsat data did not 'Confirm' such thing. We must be precise here ....
The Inmarsat data is assumed and generally believed to be true and correct; otherwise they wouldn't be using it for doing the searches out there on the ocean. And it is likely to a fairly high degree that the data may be correct ....
But.., unless we have absolute certainty on this, the data does not (yet) confirm anything!
Ultimately this is nit-picking, but we must be precise.

YoungMans, I agree with 777jet that the Inmarsat data at least confirms that the plane was still flying at the time of the pings (handshakes). In my opinion the data is good enough to confirm that the plane was still flying.

To require exact precisensee or absolute certainty on this almost borders on being a conspiracy theorist.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 109):
Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
Not only does it all add up (for me, I understand where others may see it quite differently. Fair enough.), but all other scenarios (that I can possibly dream up) fail to even approach plausibility. There are so many holes in any other scenario that I have ruled them out.

I have said for some time now that at this stage, given what we know, the 'Captain did it' scenario ticks the most boxes IMHO. However, for me, it does not tick all of the boxes and there are some other scenarios that cannot be ruled out which therefore still makes them possible.

777jet, thank you for having a voice of reason.

I also can not see how some people can be totally sure that the Captain is to blame.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 113):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
This was a quicker and much cheaper solution to implement than something that is still just an idea...

This assumes it fixes the problem. The door design was last updated just a few years ago so the door design isn't exactly a finished subject. Two people in the cockpit doesn't stop a planned attack and there is nothing stopping them after they take over. Three people in the cockpit at all times would make the odds of failure low (But that does cost a lot of money).

Tomlee, I can assure you that your idea does not entirely fix the problem.

If I was alone in my post 9/11 cockpit and I was on a suicide mission I can assure you that your FA pool key idea would be useless if I put the plane into a nose dive and the FAs were all thrown around the cabin for however long the airframe remained intact before impacting the ground. There is no perfect solution to the cockpit door issue. It would be very difficult to stop a suicidal pilot who knows his stuff and is left alone in the cockpit, especially if the tries to take the plane down as quickly as possible.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 113):
It very well could have played a part in explaining why no one could get into the cockpit.

How do you know that no one could get into the cockpit in the case of MH370?

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 114):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 109):
"""Friends of Zaharie do not buy the theory he is behind the missing plane. The pilot was the type who would take care of his passengers, Mohd Nasir said, citing discussions with acquaintances.

Funny then that Nic Huzlan, former MAS chief pilot, who knew Zaharie well, all but points a finger at him.

Funny then how you just listed only one person.
FLY DELTA JETS
 
tomlee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:06 am

Quoting FlyDeltaJetsATL (Reply 116):
Tomlee, I can assure you that your idea does not entirely fix the problem.

If I was alone in my post 9/11 cockpit and I was on a suicide mission I can assure you that your FA pool key idea would be useless if I put the plane into a nose dive and the FAs were all thrown around the cabin for however long the airframe remained intact before impacting the ground. There is no perfect solution to the cockpit door issue. It would be very difficult to stop a suicidal pilot who knows his stuff and is left alone in the cockpit, especially if the tries to take the plane down as quickly as possible.

I believe you haven't read my responses to 777jet where he already asks this same question. The main point of fixing the door control logic is to close the security vulnerability in allowing a malicious actor in control of the cockpit the time and freedom to choose their target. (This is in the range of minutes to hours instead of seconds)

This allows for a 9/11, MH370, GW situations to occur which happens on the scale of minutes to hours. This is a very large security oversight.

Entirely fix the problem is not the point, the point of the key pool is to make improve the design to at minimum prevent future cases of the same known vulnerability.

Quoting FlyDeltaJetsATL (Reply 116):
How do you know that no one could get into the cockpit in the case of MH370?

Because the plane never turned around for hours and there was no further communication so no one who did not want to die could get into the cockpit to change that situation. It is very likely the door was locked out. The decompression incapacitation scenario basically depends on the door being lock out capable as the cabin crew have portable O2 units that would last long enough to fight back but not long enough outlast the fixed O2 system for the cockpit.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:12 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 110):

LOL. Straight from the guy living 25km from Hishammuddin's place of business.

Which means I have more insight about the dynamics of Malaysian politics and the Malaysian way of life than anyone here, even Mandala. Those insights aren't readily available through news reports & articles.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 110):

Perp knew how to fly the bleep out of the 777. Perp was last voice heard. Perp was perfectly positioned at the hand over to HCM ATC. Perp failed to read back frequency (despite it being his habit). Perp was intimately familiar with regional FIR's and radar installations. Perp clearly had a vendetta against H, BN, UMNO, MAS etc...Perp was flying with jr FO. Ticks off all the boxes of motive, opportunity and CAPABILITY. And flawless execution.

Unless you believe in the most elaborate and flawless hijacking one could dream up, by occupants of M9-MRO heretofore unknown and still undiscovered, ah, I THINK NOT.

Again, it is circumstantial evidence because:
1) "Perp was last voice heard" - it could be that the FO was busy having his supper, or is occupied with documentation, or is just relaxing & monitoring things. With the plane on autopilot at cruise I would assume it's not that hard to to toggle the radio call button on the headset to reply so it may not be anything much.
2) "Perp clearly had a vendetta against H, BN, UMNO, MAS etc..." - if only you knew how many MH pilots who harbour similar sentiments & have voiced out in a similar manner on the social realm. It's hardly facts that you can take to court for a slam dunk conviction!

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 114):

Funny then that Nic Huzlan, former MAS chief pilot, who knew Zaharie well, all but points a finger at him.

This is what Capt. Nik said - quoting directly from NYT

Quote:
For his part, Mr. Huzlan is reluctant to definitively blame his old friend.

“Despite the trail of logic,” he said he could not assume that his old friend “would, on his own accord, for whatever reason, lead 238 others whose lives he was entrusted to hold in his hand to their doom in the depths of the world’s loneliest place, the South Indian Ocean.”

In all honesty I wished that we can say for certain that he did it. I'm not a big fan of Anwar Ibrahim (he makes George W. Bush look like George Washington) and if it's proven with incontrovertible proof that Zaharie knowingly murdered 238 people just to satisfy the ego of a power hungry, useless politician I will leave it be. But I will not throw someone, especially a dead person, under a bus without factual certainty which we do not have at the moment. How many accidents have been blamed on one thing & ended up being caused by another thing entirely incuding technical issues that we probably haven't thought of before? Plenty!

Until Romeo Oscar is found whether in one or a thousand pieces, NOTHING IS CERTAIN.

[Edited 2015-03-31 01:22:25]

[Edited 2015-03-31 01:26:05]
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lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:34 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 115):
Is there any hard evidence which exonerates the FO?

No, there is not. On the other hand, there is no evidence against him, too.
Iirc, Mandala mentioned that the FO was well connected but might have a problem with his ambitious mother.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 114):
Funny then that Nic Huzlan, former MAS chief pilot, who knew Zaharie well, all but points a finger at him.

"Zaharie did it" is certainly by far the most comfortable explanation for MAS, the government, and Boeing - but still in more than one year they could not present any evidence beyond circumstantial gossip.

In contrast, it took only a few days until substantial evidence against A.L. in the GW-case turned up, and i don't mean the CVR.
 
oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:53 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 118):
Funny then that Nic Huzlan, former MAS chief pilot, who knew Zaharie well, all but points a finger at him.

This is what Capt. Nik said - quoting directly from NYT

Quote:
For his part, Mr. Huzlan is reluctant to definitively blame his old friend.

“Despite the trail of logic,” he said he could not assume that his old friend “would, on his own accord, for whatever reason, lead 238 others whose lives he was entrusted to hold in his hand to their doom in the depths of the world’s loneliest place, the South Indian Ocean.”

I guess we differ on what 'all but points a finger at him' constitutes... 'Is RELUCTANT to DEFINITIVELY blame his old friend. 'He could not ASSUME'...

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 118):
Which means I have more insight about the dynamics of Malaysian politics and the Malaysian way of life than anyone here, even Mandala. Those insights aren't readily available through news reports & articles.
Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 118):
In all honesty I wished that we can say for certain that he did it. I'm not a big fan of Anwar Ibrahim (he makes George W. Bush look like George Washington) and if it's proven with incontrovertible proof that Zaharie knowingly murdered 238 people just to satisfy the ego of a power hungry, useless politician I will leave it be.

Which means that you should know very well that Zaharie had an interest in a bringing an end to 60years of nepotistic BN rule. Anwar was merely the best worst alternative, as Zaharie said himself.

Remember, "Democracy was Dead"???? Or, maybe you'd forgotten this. LOL.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:56 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 120):
Remember, "Democracy was Dead"???? Or, maybe you'd forgotten this. LOL.

so what ? If this is your best point, then please forget your crusade against a dead man.
 
tomlee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:59 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 119):

Basically we have no idea who it might be if it is a suicide. Given the level of evidence we have on people onboard the no evidence doesn't really mean anything. Hiding a deliberate attack is certainty possible and given how well the plane is lost if it were not for the sat-com pings the search area would be completely wrong.

[Edited 2015-03-31 02:01:14]
 
oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:02 am

Quoting FlyDeltaJetsATL (Reply 116):
Funny then how you just listed only one person.

Didn't realize we were tallying up numbers. Sigh.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:27 am

I wonder if it possible to have autopilot programing software that would require a 'deadmans' throttle like on a train, that is requiring some input on the controls to make sure the pilots are in control, are awake and if not, putting out an special signal that could not be disabled. Related to that would be programming of autopilots or overrides to limit intentional acts or damaging maneuvers (ie: like rudder controls) or major deviations from routes unless a true mechanical problem. My reasoning on both suggestions is that it could help if pilots become incapacitated as well as limit the actions of a rogue pilot or even terrorists from taking over an aircraft to do a terrible act.
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:42 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
No, the Inmarsat data did not 'Confirm' such thing. We must be precise here ....
Then what do you think the usual hourly pings followed by the final ping at a time consistent with when fuel exhaustion would have occurred actually mean?
I know you question the data and the direction the plane supposedly went as that fits in with your pet theory, but are you actually now saying that the pings are not even enough evidence to confirm that the plane flew for X hours???

The ‘usual hourly pings’ you are referring to are no more than just line items in a computer; ... somewhere.
Interestingly, after IGARI, according to the Factual Information Report, there are only ten such lines.

That being the case, there is a distinct possibility that the original record after IGARI was deleted and replaced with changed data. It could even be, and nobody from the public would know anything different, that there may have been a lot more entries (after IGARI), phone calls and whatever else.
All those records were then deleted and replaced with only the (Edit: fabricated) handshake data.

If you want to put it this way, it could have been a case similar to reverse engineering; except that in this case, the reverse part was up-front. In other words, once it happened that flight MH370 disappeared, those responsible for that action would have drawn the circles on a map, do the necessary reverse calculations (up-front) and then present the lines (we now know as the ‘handshakes’ after 18:25) as having been received from MH370.
They would have had ample time to do this.

The experts, then, for whom I have a very high regard, worked with the data and, as we all know, came to the conclusion that the aircraft must have ended up over the SIO, as mysterious and inexplicable that seemed; it had to be because the data told them so.

If we consider the above as a possibility, however slight it may be, then, by definition, we cannot say that the Inmarsat data ‘confirms’ how long the plane flew for or, indeed, ‘what its final destination was’.

It riles a fair few people here on A.net if the satellite data is questioned or, worse, not believed; why?
Why, and this is an important question.., why should the satellite data be accepted blindly as true and correct?
Put the same question differently ....
How can we judge the veracity of the satellite data for ourselves?
What is the path and/or the procedure of verification, letting us (the public) know that the data is true and correct?
If there is none, then we can only half-believe what the authorities are telling us.
(I should think, these are not light hearted or frivolous questions ..!)

Unless there are good and solid answers to these questions, i.e. until it has been confirmed as fact that those lines in the computer are the original log of the actual communications to and from the aircraft, the data cannot be deemed to 'confirm' anything.
It can only serve as a basis for assumptions. And much of life is based on assumptions ...

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
If you need "absolute certainty" on things before you accept them as fact then there must be many, many more things than just the MH370 Inmarsat data that you question, correct?

“Absolute Certainty” is not the issue.
The point is, the Inmarsat data cannot be accepted as ‘confirming something, anything’ when we (the public, A,netters, anyone) have no way of verifying whether the data is in fact true and correct or not.
In science this would be a big No-No ....
I really don’t know how much clearer I can make this point.
I can only repeat the question:
What exactly tells any of us that the satellite data is true and correct? *)
On what exact grounds can one believe it is?

*) We won't know the answer to this, I reckon, unless either the authorities are much more forthcoming with the real truth or a variety of items are found which are then confirmed, verifiably, to be off 9M-MRO.

[Edited 2015-03-31 03:45:38]
 
SoJo
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:16 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 120):
Which means that you should know very well that Zaharie had an interest in a bringing an end to 60years of nepotistic BN rule. Anwar was merely the best worst alternative, as Zaharie said himself.

Remember, "Democracy was Dead"???? Or, maybe you'd forgotten this. LOL.
Quoting oxymorph (Reply 123):
Didn't realize we were tallying up numbers. Sigh.

You are starting to sound snidey. Just listen to other people and what they think. You nor tailskid have any PROOF that the Captain did it. Until the A/C is found, there is no answer to this mystery. By the way, I hate the way some on here are hanging Captain Zaharie out to dry. Terrible
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markalot
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:44 pm

If the pilot wanted to be a terrorist, in other words he was doing it not due to a mental issue but for a political issue, why in the world would he make the plane vanish? He terrorized no one and he did not affect any political change.
M a r k
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:48 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
Why, and this is an important question.., why should the satellite data be accepted blindly as true and correct?

it comes from a party not otherwise involved in the case and from a foreign country. Inmarsat has no goose to cook here, they are impartial witnesses.

And authorities were given the full data set and backtested with other flights, reportedly successfully.

[Edited 2015-03-31 12:52:29]
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:50 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 124):

now then give us your best point !
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:46 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 129):

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
Why, and this is an important question.., why should the satellite data be accepted blindly as true and correct?

it comes from a party not otherwise involved in the case and from a foreign country. Inmarsat has no goose to cook here, they are impartial witnesses.

Your reply does not really answer the question.
We know that the data has come from Inmarsat; it has the computers that log the data and it has the access to them.
What are the grounds on which you make the statements that they are impartial witnesses?
You are assuming that ....

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 129):
And authorities were given the full data set and backtested with other flights, reportedly successfully.

Yes, correct, Inmarsat made the data available and, yes, as far as we know it tallied with other, similar data.
But that is no guarantee for the veracity of those ten lines of critical data on which everything hinges.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 131):
What are the grounds on which you make the statements that they are impartial witnesses?
You are assuming that ....

Inmarsat as a provider for communication clearly has no interest in the outcome of the investigation. Whatever happend to 9m-MRO, it was not their fault. They have nothing to hide, nothing to cover up.
They might be able to fake the data, but why on earth would they do it ?

The parties involved may have or actually do have reasons to cover their 6, e.g. the Malaysian government and military that let other countries search for a week in the wrong ocean. MAS may have reasons for a cover up, and so does Boeing, though they are not known for such a thing.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:27 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
Not only does it all add up (for me, I understand where others may see it quite differently. Fair enough.), but all other scenarios (that I can possibly dream up) fail to even approach plausibility. There are so many holes in any other scenario that I have ruled them out. They just make NO sense.

I respect your stance on your belief that "the captain did it", however, in doing so you should also respect others' stance on their beliefs in other theories. There is no hard evidence to conclusively point either way, what we have is partial evidence. And I do suggest that you do not repeat your ad-hominem attack and calling other member(s) of this forum "fraud/fraudulent".

Now can someone explain to me how "the captain" switches off the Mode S and keep Mode A on, in a Mode S transponder whose manuals state that Mode S cannot be turned off if Modes A and/or C are on?

[Edited 2015-03-31 22:28:31]
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 6:11 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 110):
Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 105):
The case against Captain Zaharie is just as circumstantial as all the other theories that have been put forward.

LOL. Straight from the guy living 25km from Hishammuddin's place of business. And just what theories are you referring to?

Geez, imagine the credibilty given to those living just 25km from Obama's place of business  
Quoting tomlee (Reply 117):
The main point of fixing the door control logic is to close the security vulnerability in allowing a malicious actor in control of the cockpit the time and freedom to choose their target. (This is in the range of minutes to hours instead of seconds)

This allows for a 9/11, MH370, GW situations to occur which happens on the scale of minutes to hours. This is a very large security oversight.

Terrorists / hi-jackers are the one's who have a history of targeting specific targets and the current closed / locked cockpit door keeps them out.

Suicidal pilots just seem to crash their plane where ever they are at the time they are left alone.

So unless suicidal pilots want to start flying into specific targets like the 9/11 hi-jackers / terrorists did -(I can't think of a precedent for this)- your cabin crew key pool idea is kind of overkill IMHO.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 122):
given how well the plane is lost if it were not for the sat-com pings the search area would be completely wrong.

Be careful saying that in here given that some people question the accuracy of the SatCom pings / Inmarsat data which implies that the search area could very well be completely wrong.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
I can only repeat the question:
What exactly tells any of us that the satellite data is true and correct?

What exactly tells us that anything is true and correct?

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
On what exact grounds can one believe it is?

On what grounds can one believe that anything is true and correct?

I'm still waiting for an answer to the following question:

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
Do you at least accept that MH370 took off at all that night, given the lack of CCTV footage actually showing the same plane that Zaharie, his crew and passengers boarded actually lifting off of the ground?

Do you believe that MH370 even took off at all given what proof there is?

If so, based on what?

If so, how is there enough to confirm that the plane took off but not enough to confirm that the Inmarsat data is good?

I'm just curious as to how you work out what to accept and what not to accept as being true / correct / real...

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
“Absolute Certainty” is not the issue.

I only used that term because you used it. See below:

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 87):
But.., unless we have absolute certainty on this, the data does not (yet) confirm anything!

Is there anything about MH370 that you are absolutely certain about?

Quoting markalot (Reply 128):
If the pilot wanted to be a terrorist, in other words he was doing it not due to a mental issue but for a political issue, why in the world would he make the plane vanish? He terrorized no one and he did not affect any political change.

He didn't really like the Malaysian ruling party to put it in a nice way and they have come out looking quite bad and very useless / incompetent as a result of the way they dealt with MH370.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 133):
Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
Not only does it all add up (for me, I understand where others may see it quite differently. Fair enough.), but all other scenarios (that I can possibly dream up) fail to even approach plausibility. There are so many holes in any other scenario that I have ruled them out. They just make NO sense.

I respect your stance on your belief that "the captain did it", however, in doing so you should also respect others' stance on their beliefs in other theories.

Well said.
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YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 10:46 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 134):
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 126):
On what exact grounds can one believe it is?

On what grounds can one believe that anything is true and correct?

Answering a question with another question is not an answer!
I take it, then, that you yourself have no answer to these questions:
How can we judge the veracity of the satellite data for ourselves?
What is the path and/or the procedure of verification, letting us (the public) know that the data is true and correct?

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 134):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 94):
Do you at least accept that MH370 took off at all that night, given the lack of CCTV footage actually showing the same plane that Zaharie, his crew and passengers boarded actually lifting off of the ground?
Do you believe that MH370 even took off at all given what proof there is?
If so, based on what?
If so, how is there enough to confirm that the plane took off but not enough to confirm that the Inmarsat data is good?

On the one hand, these are silly questions and you know it!
On the other hand, you have caught me out. I'm insisting on precision with terms that are specific and important ("confirmation" versus "assumption" for example) and here I am not being precise enough myself.

'Absolute Certainty' is of course a philosophical concept. One could write books on that; these threads are 'certainly' not the place for a debate on it. Neither is absolute certainty possible in the matters we are discussing here.
Ultimately we can never be absolutely certain on just about anything, because we rely ever more on other people that they tell us the truth. Ultimately we can accept the concept of certainty only as it is generally understood.
Likewise, wherever we can not be certain, because of lack evidence or verification, we must concede that we can only make assumptions.

The challenge then, in these discussions, is to make a clear distinction between what we accept as certainty versus what we can only assume, believe. Certainty comes from evidence, facts that can be verified. Assumptions are based on .., how can I put this, on a multitude of inputs; and there would be many, gut feeling, experience, tell tale indicators, an alternative not being plausible, ... on and on the list would go.

So it seems a silly question when you ask this:

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 134):
Is there anything about MH370 that you are absolutely certain about?

Except for the few who have actually witnessed the take-off themselves, everyone else here on A.net (and anyone else, anywhere) has heard about the disappearance of MH370 only through their usual channels.
Can we trust those channels..??
To the extent that MH370 has disappeared, yes; that is certain.
In that regard, though, everyone here should ask themselves the same question, to what extent can they trust what they are being told.

But I don't think that is what you were asking; so here goes a bit more ....
That part of the flight, to IGARI, as covered in the Factual Information Report, I personally consider that as certain.
After all, the aircraft took off and it never arrived at it's planned destination.

That part of the flight across the Malaysian Peninsula, up the Strait of Malacca and to the point of last radar contact is dubious but likely. There are issues of uncertainty and, I believe, possible obfuscation.

Any supposed part of the flight after the last radar contact is, in my opinion, questionable; there is no certainty.
For that part of the flight, we can only make assumptions as to where the aircraft went and how long for it was airborne.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:22 pm

Another of Zaharie's rants:

Politics of fear.. This is what it’s boiled down to… Questioning the qualification of the individuals who dare to standup.
(Anuar or Hadi .) These are our only hope to restore democracy. 50 years in power by a single party (coalition) does not say much about democracy in the country. If these leaders willing to stand in the line of fire the least we could do is support them. They might not be perceived to be the best candidate but sacrifice is necessary to achieve the goal of free democracy. When you renovate a house you have to suffer all the consequences. From dust, to the contractor that run off with the money, Aliens workers keeping an eyes on your family. WHY DO YOU RISK THAT? Because at the end after all the loss of extra ringgit for overprice items the contractor billed you and you elude the alien predators from robbing your house and harming your family you know it will be worthwhile.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:46 pm

Quoting markalot (Reply 126):
If the pilot wanted to be a terrorist, in other words he was doing it not due to a mental issue but for a political issue, why in the world would he make the plane vanish? He terrorized no one and he did not affect any political change.

If it was a pilot induced event, then I would say he terrorized quite a large number of the public. And, no, he did not affect any political change, but how successful are terrorists at affecting political change? I would even say that terrorists know they will not effect change; their purpose to to garner attention to their cause, or to exact revenge.

With regards to making the plane vanish, and again assuming it was a pilot induced event, perhaps his plot worked all too well...at least for now and only until the plane is eventually found. Kind of like the terrorist that buries an IED deep to avoid detection, but when it finally goes off it has little impact because it was buried too deep and the blast was absorbed by the earth.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 134):

He did not like the malaysian government - so what ? About half the world population does the same, including pilots of all countries.
And judging by the miserable performance of the malaysian government and civil services in this matter strongly suggests he was right!
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:32 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 134):

Another of Zaharie's rants:

Since we're calling spades spades, let me just say, you must lead a very sheltered life if you think that counts as a rant. Goodness knows what you'd make of my twitter, especially as it regards Cameron and Osborne or the Royal Family.

Quoting markalot (Reply 126):

If the pilot wanted to be a terrorist, in other words he was doing it not due to a mental issue but for a political issue, why in the world would he make the plane vanish? He terrorized no one and he did not affect any political change.

This is spot on - we've really got 2 hypothesis here. A rational Zaharie attempting to harm the political system he hates so much, or a mentally ill man wanting to end it all without bringing any stigma on his family. Given their posts it seems oxymorph and tailskid have been arguing the former, which is just as well, as that point of view is at least defensible (there is no evidence of mental illness whatsoever).

But as you said, there's complete vagueness on how what he was attempting to achieve. It would be interesting if one of those guys could supply a similar example where someone has resorted to direct action to harm a regime they despised, by committing an heinous act, yet going to great lengths to conceal it's deliberate nature. I mean, let's say Aum didn't claim responsibility for the subway attack in 95 (can't remember if they did). That's one thing. But could you imagine them attempting to make it look like it wasn't sarin? It makes no sense. I would also like to see those who are so adamant that Zaharie was responsible talk in more concrete terms about what his goal might have been, and how his actions might have acheived them - wishy washy nonsense like "embarrassing the government" doesn't cut it.

It's not the only thing that doesn't square, aside from the technical question Gerry posed. The big one for me is why choose a flight where you will have to backtrack over Malaysia, when you are frequently on the Melbourne route which offers a clear path to open ocean? The great circle route takes you well to the west of Bali - if he topped his co-pilot at the handoff between Australian and Indonesian ATC there would be nothing between him and Mauritius. I struggle to believe that someone otherwise so seemingly methodical would add that level of unnecessary risk to his plan.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 104):
Don't be a hater (I'm a good guy...just frustrated at the seeming lack of consensus, for the families sake)

We all have our own moral code. I'm a believer in benefit of the doubt, and I personally think to condemn Zaharie as a mass murderer with such scant evidence is pretty out of order. The man in question is survived by a wife and kids, who must be aware he's been tried by public opinion in the basis of slander and innuendo, and I can't begin to imagine how that must compound their pain. But, hey, we're all different.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:48 am



Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
Answering a question with another question is not an answer!
I take it, then, that you yourself have no answer to these questions:
How can we judge the veracity of the satellite data for ourselves?
What is the path and/or the procedure of verification, letting us (the public) know that the data is true and correct?

I only answered your question with questions to try to understand how you can accept 'this' but not 'that' given that in the case of MH370, both 'this' and 'that' lack the "preciseness" or "absolute certainty" that you said is needed before the data can be confirmed. See below:

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 87):
We must be precise here ....
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 87):
unless we have absolute certainty on this, the data does not (yet) confirm anything!

Now, to answer your questions...

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
How can we judge the veracity of the satellite data for ourselves?

That is for each of us to decide for ourselves. Simple. Those who accept the accuracy of the data have had their own requirements met. Those who do not accept the data, such as yourself, obviously have not had their own requirements met. I personally believe that the data is not accidently wrong (maybe because of a system error) and I also believe that the data is not fake (falisified - intentionally wrong). Therefore, I accept the data. The following publication is what ultimately made me personally believe that the data is accurate and therefore at least good enough to confirm how long the plane was powered / flying with fuel for:

http://journals.cambridge.org/downlo...e=75d608b434b278d228e851f47f408cbf

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
What is the path and/or the procedure of verification, letting us (the public) know that the data is true and correct?

There is no answer for this question; no set guidelines.

The authorities determine what is released or said and when.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
On the one hand, these are silly questions and you know it!
On the other hand, you have caught me out.
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
So it seems a silly question when you ask this:

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 134):
Is there anything about MH370 that you are absolutely certain about?

It was not my intention to ask silly questions or catch you out.

Like I said above, I was only trying to understand how you can accept 'this' but not 'that' as fact / truth given that in the case of MH370, both 'this' and 'that' lack the level of evidence required for the "preciseness" or "absolute certainty" that you said is needed before the data can be confirmed.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 133):
That part of the flight, to IGARI, as covered in the Factual Information Report, I personally consider that as certain.
After all, the aircraft took off and it never arrived at it's planned destination.

That part of the flight across the Malaysian Peninsula, up the Strait of Malacca and to the point of last radar contact is dubious but likely. There are issues of uncertainty and, I believe, possible obfuscation.

Any supposed part of the flight after the last radar contact is, in my opinion, questionable; there is no certainty.
For that part of the flight, we can only make assumptions as to where the aircraft went and how long for it was airborne.

Thank you for sharing that.

777Jet

[Edited 2015-04-01 17:48:45]
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tomlee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:55 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 137):
The big one for me is why choose a flight where you will have to backtrack over Malaysia, when you are frequently on the Melbourne route which offers a clear path to open ocean? The great circle route takes you well to the west of Bali - if he topped his co-pilot at the handoff between Australian and Indonesian ATC there would be nothing between him and Mauritius. I struggle to believe that someone otherwise so seemingly methodical would add that level of unnecessary risk to his plan.

The backtrack makes sense because no one would expect you to fly that far without the sat-com link pings you would naturally look in the nearby area and intended flight path due to the initial confusion over the radar data from military and civil sources. If you used a route that already headed in the direction of an open ocean and your radar data would not be available normally due to you being out of range normally the search into the ocean would be 100% certain. The sat-com pings prevented the search area from being completely off basically.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 117):
Until Romeo Oscar is found whether in one or a thousand pieces, NOTHING IS CERTAIN.

100% correct, we still have a lot of plot holes.

Quoting SoJo (Reply 125):
I hate the way some on here are hanging Captain Zaharie out to dry. Terrible

I understand that is easier to have closure and certainty but in this case its not possible with the data we have...so I my view the jury is still out on this one, and I really don't think the crew did it...

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 131):
There is no hard evidence to conclusively point either way, what we have is partial evidence. And I do suggest that you do not repeat your ad-hominem attack and calling other member(s) of this forum "fraud/fraudulent".

Amen, and after 70+ threads we are still in square one, if the Ac crashed in the SIO at 88 knots in calm seas and sank, there is no way Something (ANYTHING) should not have floated and found by now....

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 7:01 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 139):
The backtrack makes sense because

I get all that. But nontheless, flying back over Malaysia adds an element of risk that could have been avoided by simply executing the "plan" on a different sector - one he flew regularly. Of course, we know in hindsight that the Malaysian air force were scarfing doughnuts.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 7:57 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 141):
I get all that. But nontheless, flying back over Malaysia adds an element of risk that could have been avoided by simply executing the "plan" on a different sector - one he flew regularly. Of course, we know in hindsight that the Malaysian air force were scarfing doughnuts.

I don't really see what difference it makes, by turning off the transponder and other data-links (aside from the probably overlooked sat-com ping) you can make a passenger plane disappear (especially at near any hand off point). The fact a military radar is required to even slightly track the plane doesn't increase risk as military radars typically don't care about civilian appearing traffic.

Doubling back is what people would least expect basically and without the sat-com pings even after the military radar was cross correlated with civil data in the absence of the pings we would have never known how long the flight was going for and thus would look in the totally wrong place. If this case was planned it was very well planned aside from overlooking the sat-com modem still operating even when not enabled.

I don't see any additional risk in doubling back as civil radar systems need the transponder returns to operate normally and while primary radar can pick up a plane without a transponder it can be hard to see something your not expecting to be happening. Whatever the reason about (why) is we don't know anything about that, but whatever the case it clearly still achieved the end result of the plane being basically totally lost with very little information to go on.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 11:49 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 137):
The big one for me is why choose a flight where you will have to backtrack over Malaysia, when you are frequently on the Melbourne route which offers a clear path to open ocean?

The backtrack would not be expected and trick investigators / authorities (for a while at least). Also, the KUL-MEL flight has 3 pilots, so Z would have had an additional pilot onboard to deal with. It was discussed very early on that KUL-PEK is one of the longest MH sectors with just 2 pilots. Any sector longer would have had a third pilot onboard to deal with. Any sector shorter would have meant less fuel / flying time duration. With the PEK flight being among the longest 2 pilot MH sectors it gave Z the greatest fuel load possible whilst only have one other pilot to deal with. Also, given that PEK is almost the exact oppostie direction to that the plane is believed to have ended up in makes PEK seems like the perfect flight for pulling of a vanishing act, especially being the night flight too  
Quoting BaconButty (Reply 141):
flying back over Malaysia adds an element of risk that could have been avoided by simply executing the "plan" on a different sector - one he flew regularly.
Quoting BaconButty (Reply 141):
we know in hindsight that the Malaysian air force were scarfing doughnuts.

Being from Malaysia Z probably knew the laid back Malaysian attitude very well and probably expected the air force to not be much of a threat. As for other risks: Collision - very low probability of a collision happening at that time of night if flying between commonly used altitudes and not much other traffic anyway. Intercepted / found by air force jets - even if they were sent to look for the plane I think they would have had a difficult time finding it. I believe the risk to fly back across the peninsula were very low.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 142):
Doubling back is what people would least expect

  

It basically worked too. Over a year later and not a single shred of the plane has been found.

Whether or not MH370 was planned, the Anwar guilt verdict could have been the tipping point for Z. All the other conditions might have seemed perfect when he got the call to come to work. He could not have been placed with a more inexperienced 777 pilot. The flight is the longest flight in terms of fuel load possible for only having one other pilot to fly with / deal with. And, the route to PEK means that if he wanted to make the plane vanish in the SIO he could turn back and fly pretty much in the opposite direction to trick everybody. Finally, the night flight aspect - it would be around sunrise just when fuel was running out and he would have had visibility to attempt the ditching. The conditions seemed as close to perfect as possible IMHO.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
AIRWALK
Posts: 241
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 9:33 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:13 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 131):
And I do suggest that you do not repeat your ad-hominem attack and calling other member(s) of this forum "fraud/fraudulent".

Especially seeing how ironic it is, coming from a guy that joined and promised that he had developed a theory about the disappearance which turned out to be a lie, and now he is calling others fraud.
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:31 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:25 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 138):
The following publication is what ultimately made me personally believe that the data is accurate and therefore at least good enough to confirm how long the plane was powered / flying with fuel for:

The paper you are referring to (see URL below) is well written and I remember it from the time when it became available last year. The paper serves an important purpose in that it ....
- Describes the satellite system and how that works
- Explains the message exchange between the AES and GES
- Explains the difference between the BTO and BFO
- It shows that the calculations were done by experts
- It shows how intricate those calculations were
It does all that and more; it also includes this statement in the conclusions ...
... and I quote:
"The analysis presented in this paper indicates that MH370 changed course shortly after it passed the Northern tip of Sumatra and travelled in a southerly direction until it ran out of fuel in the southern Indian Ocean west of Australia."
End of quote.

One thing the paper does not do, unfortunately, is provide us with guarantees for the following ....
a) That the tabled data is all that was received off flight MH370 (as automatically logged)
b) That there were no additions to or deletions from the received data (after automatic logging)
c) That there was no manipulation of the data prior to the analysis described in the paper
There are no guarantees on any one of those three items.

It would be interesting to know whether such guarantees ought to have been given in a paper of this importance.
The paper provides no information as to when exactly work on the analysis was started.

The paper is important and from it we can surmise that flight MH370 has ended over the Southern Indian Ocean. However, in the absence of guarantees, it does not automatically follow that the paper 'confirms' airborne time.
Nor does it 'confirm' that the flight has ended where it is said to have done so; and as it is generally assumed.


http://journals.cambridge.org/downlo...e=89f64007ba44a3411339879b90c07d0c
 
oxymorph
Posts: 177
Joined: Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:57 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:36 pm

[/quote]

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 131):
Now can someone explain to me how "the captain" switches off the Mode S and keep Mode A on, in a Mode S transponder whose manuals state that Mode S cannot be turned off if Modes A and/or C are on?

Before I tackle this conundrum, could you be so kind as to explain how a non-nefarious scenario might result in the above? Thanks.

Quoting AIRWALK (Reply 144):
And I do suggest that you do not repeat your ad-hominem attack and calling other member(s) of this forum "fraud/fraudulent".

Especially seeing how ironic it is, coming from a guy that joined and promised that he had developed a theory about the disappearance which turned out to be a lie, and now he is calling others fraud.

I tried mightily to come up with anything other than Zaharie. I failed miserably. I am sorry.

Mandala, I just find it unbelievable that a full year later you SUDDENLY remembered discussions about BFO spoofing. That your memory about these discussions was JUST NOW 'jogged' (how you put it).

You have offered no explanation on this matter, as though it is beneath you. IDK, but your refusal to address the issue in a straightforward and DIRECT manner is problematic.
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:45 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 145):
One thing the paper does not do, unfortunately, is provide us with guarantees for the following ....

What do you mean by "guarantees" ?
 
mandala499
Posts: 6600
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:58 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
Before I tackle this conundrum, could you be so kind as to explain how a non-nefarious scenario might result in the above?

An error or problem could result in that, depends on the faults and/or failures causing it, which could result in other problems.
So now, how could the pilot the go onto mode A (and C) without Mode S on the transponder whose manuals state it couldn't be selected to operate mode A (and/or C) without Mode S?

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
You have offered no explanation on this matter, as though it is beneath you. IDK, but your refusal to address the issue in a straightforward and DIRECT manner is problematic.

Whilst I think the doppler correction spoofing (not BFO spoofing by the way) it is not relevant to the serious discussions on what happened to MH370, I've said it before and I'll say it again. I simply forgot and failed to make the connection until recently. That simple.  
Why didn't I make the connection until recently? In addition to what (if I remember correctly) David L explained, because the idea whilst possible, is ridiculously outrageous and doesn't fit the most probable scenarios (both "it was a mishap" and "the captain did it" theories), and was written only to raise security concerns about the set up of the current satcom systems installed on many of the world's wide bodied airliners. And I'll say it again, it is not meant to be put as a serious alternative theory to what happened to MH370. If you think I take that doppler spoofing theory as serious then you got a problem, and if you don't think I take that theory seriously, why does that irk you so much that you and your mate has to ask this again and again? (despite having been answered but maybe someone forgot to notice the answer, or maybe got deleted due to 'reference post deleted' before you read it).
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
AIRWALK
Posts: 241
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 9:33 am

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 78

Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:05 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
Before I tackle this conundrum, could you be so kind as to explain how a non-nefarious scenario might result in the above? Thanks

He doesn't have to. If he had said that there is no way there was any kind of foul play then he would have to explain this. As it stands he is undecided on the cause of this disappearance. You on the other hand have come to a conclusion on what has happened. Therefore you have to make sure all the facts fit in with your story. For example, I can say I think the captain did it because I see no other logical explanation. However I cannot say the captain definitely did it because there is no other logical explanation. For me to come to a definitive conclusion I have to make sure there are no holes in the theory.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
I tried mightily to come up with anything other than Zaharie. I failed miserably. I am sorry.

That's no problem, if we had an answer that fitted everything these threads would have finished long ago. We should keep the discussions constructive however for all our sakes, that's the point he was making.
I'm sure this thread will take off soon

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