Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 8

rolfen · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:07 am

Quoting aw70 (Reply 15):
I don't understand why so many people here seem to be focused on foul play having occurred. All it would have taken for this to happen is for the remaining pilot in the cockpit to suffer a massive stroke or aneurysm while the other one was in the lavatory. When suffering the stroke, the pilot accidentally pressed some buttons, or pushed the stick forward.

No.
The flight path is too controlled to be "accidental" (as in accidentally pushing some buttons). The odds are totally against it.
It doesn't have to be intentional though. God knows what happened in there.
The info that are filtering through are chilling. I think it's best not to speculate.
They seem to be on the good track with the investigation.

hofimax · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:08 am

According to German tabloid BILD, the pilot's name was Patrick S., first officer's name was Andreas L.
Pilot was father of two kids. First officer in his mid-twenties.
Pilot with 6000 flight hours of experience, first officer 630 hours.

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:23:02]

aw70 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:08 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 49):
As pilots are far more subject to medical scrutiny than the general population, they are particularly unlikely to suffer those types of events. As I posted earlier, the American Heart Association estimates individuals under 50 who have passed rigorous examination are extremely unlikely to suffer any cardiac events for a minimum of 7 years.

Indeed. But having worked as an ambulance attendant for some years, I can tell you that "statistically very unlikely" does not equal "impossible". Unfortunately. Once in a blue moon you end up doing (unsuccessful) CPR on some young, fit person who just happened to keel over for no sane reason whatsoever. In fact, the first CPR I ever witnessed (as a bystander, while still in high school) was on a student pilot of Austrian Airlines. Who simply fell over and died while he was out with friends. Heart attack.

Also, please bear in mind that we are talking about an accident that is a freak event to begin with. Whatever this was, it was not one of the more common failure modes in aviation.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 49):
Add in other factors, like whether a slumped body would contact flight controls, and what sequence of doing so would be required to get an A320 to deviate from altitude,...

I readily admit that this is a weak point of the "sudden massive stroke" scenario. However, there is one point you should consider: not all strokes cause instantaneous incapacitation. Not even all massive ones. In quite a number of cases, complete incapacitation is preceded by seconds or even minutes of disorientation, confusion, and progressively worsening neurological symptoms, such as (partial) paralysis. It would not be unthinkable that a PIC who became a stroke victim was under the impression (!) that he was not getting enough oxygen due to some form slow decompression. And that with his remaining brain capacity, he would dial in a descent, put on the oxygen mask, and then pass out.

This scenario is of course now pure speculation. But from a neurological standpoint, this would not even be a very unusual stroke case. Just one with particularly horrible consequences.

milan320 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:10 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 54):
Still, it kind of feels this switch should be on the overhead console.

If I recall correctly from the YouTube video that was posted previously with regards to the door switch procedures, I think it is mentioned that the door switch can also be located on the over-head panel ... so this can be customized. Where 4U's A320s have this switch, I don't know.

anfromme · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:13 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 26):
Tell me, what exactly in my reasoning is wrong?

That you're assuming that there is some underlying issue common to a number of cherry-picked incidents (which have already been investigated and no such common issue found). That you're furthermore assuming that the same underlying issue is also behind this crash (for which, dare one remind you, no cause has been established yet).
For starters. One could also point to your use of language and tone, with which you're implying that you are the purveyor of truth while people with vastly more expertise than you who dare to contradict you just want to silence you, speaker of inconvenient truth.

It's fine to voice opinions, and not everybody has to agree on everything - but Carl Sagan's rule still holds: Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. The "evidence" you present for your hypothesis is just a bunch of cherry-picked disconnected incidents. What you're presenting is not conclusive enough for basic troubleshooting in level 1 iTunes support, never mind technically sound enough to make any sort of claim about the safety of a whole airplane series with 6500+ examples in operation today.
In light of that, please don't expect to be taken seriously, and also please don't be surprised if people take offense at the ignorance you display.

Quoting Mastropiero (Reply 39):
What is wrong in your reasoning is that you jump to conclusions without knowing what actually happened, your argument being "it looks like blablabla"? Seriously, based on what looks like that?

You don't know the facts beyond what is known, neither do I, nor does Wilco, who is in a much better position than us anyway to do so. And with posts like yours you manage to turn away people who actually CAN offer valuable input. Thank you for that.

SCQ83 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:13 am

I find very interesting that US airlines require at least two members of the crew to be on the cockpit at any time, while LH doesn't apparently, according to what I have read here.

IMO there is something very cultural about such requirements. German culture is way more hierarchical than anglosaxon, so such requirements have something to do with the view of the role of pilot in the plane.

If this proves the reason, it would be another 'cultural' issue that ended up wrong, like in many other cases (Air France, Korean Air for instance).

HALtheAI · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:17 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 9):
In the US that's the rule, but not elsewhere.

Another 'safety' feature of the American airline industry that you won't find in many other parts of the world is that their pilots can carry guns on board. No doubt this is a source of great comfort to all those who fly regularly in the US.

SEPilot · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:18 am

Quoting racko (Reply 2):
The descent was not necessarily alarming enough to run to the flight deck with your pants still around your ankles, so to speak.

On the contrary, if I were captain and felt the plane suddenly start a relatively steep descent when it should be staying at cruising altitude (and only about a minute after I had left the cockpit, from what I gather) I would want to know RIGHT NOW what is going on. And any captain would feel and hear the start of such a descent IMMEDIATELY.

Quoting aw70 (Reply 15):
I don't understand why so many people here seem to be focused on foul play having occurred. All it would have taken for this to happen is for the remaining pilot in the cockpit to suffer a massive stroke or aneurysm while the other one was in the lavatory. When suffering the stroke, the pilot accidentally pressed some buttons, or pushed the stick forward.

And the remaining pilot simply took too long to get back into the cockpit.

That would be an extremely sad but not totally far-fetched chain of events.

That does not explain the captain being unable to use the emergency access code, unless Germanwings had an unusually long time delay set in their doors.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 24):
That the NY Times, considered to be leading and respected newspaper in the USA,

Quoting aw70 (Reply 34):

- sole pilot in the cockpit suffers massive stroke, somehow sends the plane into a moderately steep descent via some uncoordinated movements
Respected in some circles, considered not worthy of lining birdcages in others. They are very partisan, and will not cover news that does not fit their narrative.
- pilot outside wastes too much time knocking, only resorts to using the emergency code too late

As I have said before, were I captain I would consider this a situation requiring my IMMEDIATE presence, if only to know what is going on. After all, I am responsible for everything that happens. Of course, if it was the copilot who was locked out the situation is murkier, especially his having only 600 hours. Earlier I said that I had less experience than any airline pilot; I am startled to find out that I have almost twice what this pilot had.

Andy33 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:21 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 62):
I find very interesting that US airlines require at least two members of the crew to be on the cockpit at any time, while LH doesn't apparently, according to what I have read here.

In fact I don't know any European airlines that require another crew member to enter the cockpit if one of the pilots leaves it. No doubt if there are any someone will correct me. However it is certainly very far from being just an LH thing.

scbriml · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:22 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 54):
And an FA should enter cockpit if a pilot goes out.

If a pilot is determined to crash the plane, having an FA in the cockpit isn't going to prevent it (given that most pilots are men and most FAs female). It would be fairly easy for the pilot to incapacitate the FA.

DIRECTFLT · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:26 am

Pilots 'involved in violent struggle before crash'

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...s-plane-crash-live-updates-5401806

The investigation has now turned into a full-blown criminal enquiry today following revelations of a violent struggle on board, reports from France suggest.

Four specialists from Interpol have joined senior French detectives trying to work out why one of the pilots on the plane locked himself into the cockpit on Tuesday morning.

There were two airmen on board and they are said to have been fighting to open and close the cockpit door.

A chair is at one stage used to block the door, as the pilots shouted at each other in German, before the one outside ‘tried to smash the door down’.

Cockpit recordings recovered from the crash site indicated one of the seats was pushed back and the door opened and closed, followed by the sound of knocking on the flight, which had been on its way from Barcelona in Spain to Dusseldorf in Germany.

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:30:42]

flyingturtle · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:27 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 48):
Provided you can find them in this moutainous area. It isnt exactly flat.

I'm sure they now frantically recover everything that looks like a non-rock, and build multiple dams in the ravine to catch anything that might be washed down by rain water. In that regard, the terrain is your friend. The worst difficulty here IMHO is rock fall from the cliff above.

It's not like the two Air India crashes on same glacier, where you'll find debris after 30 and 40 and 50 years: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_India_Flight_101

I think there are more difficult places to do crash investigations, like a rain forest or a real rock cliff. But luckily, the plane seems to be crashed where one can still walk, if one is accustomed to mountain hiking and is wearing mountaineering boots with a stiff sole.

David

HALtheAI · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:28 am

The Mirror is on par with the Daily Mail in terms of reliability.

sebolino · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:30 am

http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/articl...-acte-volontaire_4601792_3224.html

(hypothesis of an intended action)

Selon les experts, si le pilote avait eu un malaise, la porte se serait ouverte au bout de trente secondes.

-> According to experts, if the pilot had a seizure (right word ?), the door would have been open after 30 seconds [after the other pilot entered the security code].

frostyj · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:31 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 63):

Tbh not me.. You never know waht crazy thing the pilot could do. We would have nothing to fight with.

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:39:10]

abba · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:33 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
It's psychological, mankind tend to look for the negative things in life.

... and then it is simple and can explain almost anything. Technical chains of events leading to accidents in modern airplanes are highly complex and need experts with in-depth knowledge to speculate. Not something ordinary people (myself included) can contribute much to.

I just read the other day that if safety i present day airplanes were to be the same as in 1973 then we would see - due to the increase in traffic - a fatal crash every 41 hour. Even if it is terrible every time it happens, it is nevertheless impressive how far safety in aviation has actually come.

My thoughts and prayers to those who have now lost loved ones..

Aaron747 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:35 am

Quoting aw70 (Reply 58):

Again that is not the same situation though to bring up a young student pilot. There are all sorts of things that don't show up easily that can off young people - ARVD, Long QT syndrome, congenital heart valve defects, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, pulmonary embolism, and still more. That said, it is quite unlikely a professional pilot who has undergone numerous exams would not have been red flagged at some point. That's all I'm trying to point out.

christopherwoo · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:37 am

It is of course possible that the pilot remaining in the cockpit did become incapacitated, and in panic the pilot locked out of the cockpit could not recall the specifics of the override procedure (don't want to discuss on a public forum).

That being said... as I said at the start... it feel a little too coincidental not to be foul play when combined with the steady descent.

TheSonntag · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:37 am

German tv stations are now citing the german prosecutor in charge who confirmed that only one pilot was in the cockpit.

This is just shocking.

s5daw · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:38 am

Some local media here now reporting german public prosecution confirmed only one pilot in cockpit... no clue what their source might be though...

Ah ok, apparently it is on german tv... wow... i sure hope it was health problem or sth.. anything else seems just too surreal

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:39:26]

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:40:33]

gpbcroppers63 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:41 am

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 65):
In fact I don't know any European airlines that require another crew member to enter the cockpit if one of the pilots leaves it. No doubt if there are any someone will correct me. However it is certainly very far from being just an LH thing.

I stand to be corrected but I believe it is SOP on FR that one of the FAs goes into the cockpit if one of the pilots has to leave it. The fasten seatbelt sign is also switched on and the pilot doesn't leave the cockpit until the FAs confirm cabin secure from what I have observed as a passenger on a number of FR flights.

SCQ83 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:41 am

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 65):

But that is some red light IMO, and a very cultural thing.

From an European perspective, Americans are 'over the top' in many ways in the workplace, and somehow anyone is suspicious until it proves right (the lawsuit culture that usually Europeans make fun of, or the tedious regulations in the American workplace and companies)

Maybe noone at Lufthansa has ever thought that a pilot would commit suicide. That wouldn't even be in their books. But it could be an option now.

Which at the very end, to me it comes to the very hierarchical nature of civil aviation. There are probably not many industries left with such military hierarchy. Some major accidents have happened lately in airlines or countries with a very hierarchical view of the workplace (France, Malaysia and of course the famous Korean Air accidents). Maybe it is time for a change.

anfromme · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:41 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 76):
Some local media here now reporting german public prosecution confirmed only one pilot in cockpit... no clue what their source might be though...

They cite the results of BEA's investigations so far.

DIRECTFLT · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:42 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 69):
The Mirror is on par with the Daily Mail in terms of reliability.

Sorry about that. I followed the Google News Link, without first going to the main page site of the The Mirror, where It would have been obvious it was more tabloid than NY Times style of journalism. I'll try and remember who's who when I click on a Google News Link.

trex8 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:43 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 49):
That is actually more unlikely than foul play given the available information and certain scientific realities. As pilots are far more subject to medical scrutiny than the general population, they are particularly unlikely to suffer those types of events. As I posted earlier, the American Heart Association estimates individuals under 50 who have passed rigorous examination are extremely unlikely to suffer any cardiac events for a minimum of 7 years. Add in other factors, like whether a slumped body would contact flight controls, and what sequence of doing so would be required to get an A320 to deviate from altitude, and the probability becomes even more unlikely.

Extremely unlikely does not mean zero, even its a 1% risk or less its a risk just as planes are extremely unlikely to fall out of the sky, its not zero %. Certain conditions such as heart rhythm problems (remember those professional athletes who just keel over and are dead on the field) or burst brain aneurysms may be essentially unpredictable on normal testing. Someone who has had a cardiac event can end up with oxygen deprivation as badly as someone who experiences depressurization, someone who had a brain aneurysm burst or stroke can be totally confused but still able to fumble at instruments.

daryl1866 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:45 am

Just to clear up some confusion I've been reading..

Once emergency access code has been entered and the flight crew does not operate the toggle switch within 15 secs and 2 mins:

-the control unit de-energises the three solenoids which holds the door in place. The cockpit door is unlocked for 5 SECS.

The pilot must operate the toggle switch to 'LOCK' to prevent door from opening. Therefore the crew member in the cockpit was not incapacitated.

racko · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:48 am

BEA currently confirming the NYT report. The FO was in the seat, Captain outside the cockpit.

Buyantukhaa · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:48 am

http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2015/03/26/...ot-in-cockpit-toestel-germanwings/ (Dutch only)

Prosecutor Brice Robin stated that the co-pilot stayed in the cockpit, manipulated the flight controls. His breathing was audible till the end of the recording, so he did not die previously. Foul play suspected.

BubbleFrog · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:49 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 75):
German tv stations are now citing the german prosecutor in charge who confirmed that only one pilot was in the cockpit.

This is just shocking.

Please, no.

anfromme · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:49 am

Some additional news - German media are now reporting that it was the co-pilot alone in the cockpit at the time the descent was initiated, and it was him that did initiate the descent.
This was confirmed by the public prosecutor's office in Marseille.
Source (German):
http://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/2015...-leitete-sinkflug-vorsaetzlich-ein

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:51:45]

So it's officially regarded as foul play by the co-pilot now.

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:52:47]

rfields5421 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:51 am

Quoting speedbirdegjj (Reply 30):
I agree, but in light of whats been alleged wouldn't a simple statement from the BEA helped to quash the rumors and inevitable hysteria that has followed?

The BEA (or NTSB or AIB) does not comment on media rumors or stories. it simply isn't their job to correct mistakes or outright lies by the media. If there is a question and answer session in a briefing, the BEA spokesman might respond with something like 'we have no information to confirm that report' or 'the CVR indicates some issue occurred but we have not yet determined exactly what happened.'

However, the NYT has some very strict editorial controls in place for making such serious accusations. The reporter who originated the story would have had to name his source, and his source's connection with the investigation. Also a second person with the paper would have verified the named source's position and likely access to such information.

Quoting peterk (Reply 36):
Are the mobile phones of the passengers examined? Maybe they took pictures or videos of what happened?

Of course any intact mobile phones will be examined. However given the nature of the crash - few of the cell phones would have survived intact. Also, recovery of human remains is the priority, mobile phones recovered would go into a group of debris to be sorted and examined later. Not in the first couple days.

Quoting capri (Reply 37):
We haven't heard from military what the interceptive fighter jet saw or witnessed, or did I miss it?

I saw an early story that the fighter did not get close to the aircraft at all. Before it could be in intercept range, the aircraft had crashed. But I can't find a direct link right now.

racko · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:51 am

FO deliberately initiated the descent and deliberately locked the captain out of the cockpit.

BubbleFrog · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:51 am

'Robin says most plausible interpretation is that co-pilot refused to open the door to the pilot and he took the plane down. “The intention was to destroy this plane”.'

Live coverage from the Guardian.

Speechless.

PanHAM · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:52 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 63):
Another 'safety' feature of the American airline industry that you won't find in many other parts of the world is that their pilots can carry guns on board. No doubt this is a source of great comfort to all those who fly regularly in the US.

it is a culture matter, Europeans think exactly the opposite. An unsealed gun on an aircraft would make me feel uncomfortable and not only me.

Edit
I wrote this before the message about the FO locking the Captain out came in. I know what it takes to become even admitted to LH Pilot Training, including psychological tests. This is hard to believe.
Can't say anymore right now

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:57:45]

JimJupiter · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:53 am

Shocking, just shocking.

hofimax · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:54 am

Information from press conference from Marseille (prosecutor M. Robin.)

- Victim identification starts today
- Second black box not yet found
- Co-pilot was alone in cockpit when he started descent, pilot went to toilet
- Pilot wanted to enter cockpit but co-pilot did not answer
- Co-pilot deliberately refused to open cockpit door
- Breathing in the cockpit was heard until crash
- Air traffic control requested pilots to declare 1700 emergency but no answer from cockpit
- No mayday or other emergency declared
- Current investigation makes it very likely that co-pilot deliberately crashed plane
- More information on co-pilot background to be provided later

[Edited 2015-03-26 04:55:36]

s5daw · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:55 am

As a parent... I'm not sure how i could handle this.. if at all... Poor families.

EL-AL · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:57 am

It's official: "MARSEILLE PROSECUTOR - GERMAN CO-PILOT APPEARS TO HAVE CRASHED PLANE DELIBERATELY", says reuters.

EI320 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:59 am

Very chilling stuff. I cannot the imagine the sheer horror that those onboard must have been experienced in the final minutes. A truly horrific act of mankind.

Gazdon121 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:00 pm

How safe are we in the pilots hands

flyingturtle · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:00 pm

Quoting hofimax (Reply 86):

WOW.

Shocking, shocking, but it might come as a relief to the friends and relatives of those killed. They might have a reason now, and don't have to doubt anymore.

Does the BEA still investigate in that case?

David

mika · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:00 pm

This is very tragic news to hear, for sure, if its correct. Taking 150 other people with you as you go is...twisted for lack of a better word.

What still baffles me is the slow and stable descent though. Why not just slam the plane in the ground if you've decided to go. Prolonging the process only increases the chance that someone will get in. Come to think of it, who knows if he in fact didn't want that...suicides at times are as much a means of grabbing attention as they are a method of ending ones life.

curlyheadboy · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:02 pm

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 88):

It's official: "MARSEILLE PROSECUTOR - GERMAN CO-PILOT APPEARS TO HAVE CRASHED PLANE DELIBERATELY", says reuters.

I can now see why the investigators were so reluctant to comment on the CVR findings. Good Lord...

seahawk · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:02 pm

That will change the industry.

14ccKemiskt · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:02 pm

Brings a lot of attension to checking mental health of pilots AND questioning the cockpit security doors.

scbriml · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 57):
Another 'safety' feature of the American airline industry that you won't find in many other parts of the world is that their pilots can carry guns on board. No doubt this is a source of great comfort to all those who fly regularly in the US.

It's a comfort that there's a small chance one of the pilots might have a gun? Some are easily comforted, I guess.

Even if the captain had been armed, how would that have prevented what is now starting to look like mass murder? If the FO had been armed, his task would have been even easier.

mika · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Possible of course also that he in fact somehow managed to end his own life right after the captain exited and was locked out.

casinterest · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 93):
That will change the industry.

Three pilot rule? or a Flight Attendant always required in the cockpit?

Andy33 · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting gpbcroppers63 (Reply 71):
I stand to be corrected but I believe it is SOP on FR that one of the FAs goes into the cockpit if one of the pilots has to leave it. The fasten seatbelt sign is also switched on and the pilot doesn't leave the cockpit until the FAs confirm cabin secure from what I have observed as a passenger on a number of FR flights.

That's a sensible system, but it wasn't the one used on my last Ryanair flight (admittedly last year) when while they did put the fasten seatbelts light on, two FAs formed a human blockade at the front of the cabin instead of one of them entering it. On a previous flight they used two trolleys to physically block access to the cockpit door. Maybe they have a policy that allows the exact method to vary from flight to flight. This would be quite effective since it would make it much harder for would-be hijackers to devise a way of beating the system.

flyingturtle · Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting hofimax (Reply 86):
- Co-pilot deliberately refused to open cockpit door

I know that professional investigators only say something when they really know it.

But is there still a way to make entry to cockpit impossible (looking like willful refusal to let somebody enter) while being unconscious, or suffering a stroke?

David

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