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LAXintl
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ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:38 pm

Well the rumors turned out to be true.


ICAO says following a January audit it has declared Thailand’s Aviation Industry as ‘Significant Safety Concern’.

Immediate fall out from the revised assessment which covers issues of personnel licensing and training, airworthiness assessment and certification, accident investigation and airline operations oversight is that Thai carriers are seeing restrictions placed on their international operations.

Allegedly Thai authorities only passed 21 out of near 100 areas reviewed by auditors.

So far, Japan Civil Aviation Bureau instituted a ban on new services between the nations while Korea was considering the same and was unlikely to approve additional services between the nations forcing TG to cancel series of upcoming holiday charters to Japan, while NokScoot had to freeze plans for a May 10th launch of Seoul.

Thai ministry of transportation say it will seek to “find the solutions to fix the faults that were found in the inspection as soon as possible.”

Thailand’s Aviation Industry Is a ‘Significant Safety Concern
http://skift.com/2015/03/27/u-n-agen...y-is-a-significant-safety-concern/

Japan, Korea clip Thai flyers' wings
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...japan-korea-clip-thai-flyers-wings

=

Bad news for Thailand's aviation and tourism industry.

If EU and US regulators follow the ICAO findings, besides airline route restrictions there would be ticket sale limitations as well which could hurt tourism further.

[Edited 2015-03-27 08:19:42]
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deltaffindfw
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RE: Icao Says Thailand 'Safety Concern' Face Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:12 pm

Do individual airline policies fall under this concern? For example, I recently flew Thai Air Asia domestically. On both flights, as soon as the last person boarded, they shut the door and started backing up the plane. People were still trying to walk down the aisle to find their seat and put bags up. On one flight, they started the recorded safety video right away, since the plane was taxiing to the runway. It was odd.
 
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mercure1
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RE: Icao Says Thailand 'Safety Concern' Face Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:18 pm

If EU follows will definite have problems for TG and other Thai airlines.

Many travel agents and tour operators wont be able to book Thai carriers due to insurance restrictions.
Similar happened few years ago with Indonesia and Garuda.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Allegedly Thai authorities only passed 21 out of near 100 areas reviewed by auditors.

 Wow!

That seems really bad.
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roseflyer
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:22 pm

Quoting deltaffindfw (Reply 1):
Do individual airline policies fall under this concern?

Usually ICAO is looking at the government of Thailand's regulatory authority. With all the political turmoil in Thailand recently, there may be some deficiencies with the oversight of airlines. There has been significant expansion of new Airlines in Thailand. Many of them don't have robust processes and procedures in place to ensure that their are meeting safety and airworthiness standards. The government regulators are responsible for ensuring the ICAO standards are followed. When ICAO, FAA, or EASA audit the Thailand regulators, they can observe deficiencies in the monitoring of airlines. This can result in FAA category drop or EASA blacklisting which can restrict operations. It looks like JCAB in Japan and the authorities in Korea are already enforcing some policies.
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seabosdca
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:30 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Allegedly Thai authorities only passed 21 out of near 100 areas reviewed by auditors.

Is anyone familiar enough with the ICAO audit process to put this in context? Would a place like the US or Germany likely score 100 out of 100, 90 out of 100, or 50 out of 100?
 
HPRamper
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:33 pm

At FedEx, recently (past couple weeks) some new restrictions on Dangerous Goods relating to Thailand have come out. I wonder if these are related.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:44 pm

Quoting deltaffindfw (Reply 1):
Do individual airline policies fall under this concern?

Indirectly. ICAO audit covered the Thai government and its regulatory practices.

If the government was found deficient in managing its aviation sector, there certainly is more room for the airlines which it is supposed to oversee to potentially be sloppy or not in full compliance with standards.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 2):
Many travel agents and tour operators wont be able to book Thai carriers due to insurance restrictions.

Yes could be quite painful for TG in particular if European companies must avoid the carrier.

Also would hurt all the domestic LCCs as it would be impossible to come up with domestic itineraries which might take Thailand off the map for some travelers/companies.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 5):
At FedEx, recently (past couple weeks) some new restrictions on Dangerous Goods relating to Thailand have come out. I wonder if these are related.

Probably. I've been hearing rumors of this since February, and as one of the articles states Thailand was given a 90-day grace period before ICAO publicly announced its assessment. So Thai authorities have known about the findings.
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zeke
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:55 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 4):
Is anyone familiar enough with the ICAO audit process to put this in context? Would a place like the US or Germany likely score 100 out of 100, 90 out of 100, or 50 out of 100?

No, the highest ever was the UAE, that was earlier this year at 98.86. The US and Germany is most cases is below South Korea in world rankings.

Here is a comparison, with the world average. Thailand is not that bad, unless things have changed significantly.

ICAO safety ranking comparison
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dtw2hyd
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:49 pm

ICAO is one useless organization which should be dissolved and its budget should be reallocated to UNICEF or UNHCR. There are lot of needy kids and refugees in the world.

Their audits are pretty much useless. Their reports and actions never match. They cannot mandate anything.
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mercure1
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:03 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 8):

Their audits are pretty much useless. Their reports and actions never match. They cannot mandate anything.

No but member states can act.

After all it was ICAO which uncovered many of the deficiencies with India and Philippines for example which were followed up by parties like the FAA which downgraded them following its own confirmation.

While maybe not perfect, its good there is an international body that can go take a look and warn the world when nations are deficient.
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seabosdca
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:03 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
Here is a comparison, with the world average. Thailand is not that bad, unless things have changed significantly.

Is the "world average" here weighted by population, ASMs, or number of flight operations? If not, it's probably being pulled down significantly by the high number of small developing countries in the world.

In any case, that graph makes it look like there is a meaningful difference between Thailand and any of the other three countries pictured, and the survey results seem to suggest the situation there has deteriorated further.
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
Here is a comparison, with the world average. Thailand is not that bad, unless things have changed significantly.

That data was from an audit in 2005. I think roseflyer's response in reply 3 brings up a good point. The Thai aviation market has seen a huge amount of growth in the past ten years. There are airports whose passenger levels have increased four fold in that time, and there are far more aircraft movements than there ever were previously. The department of civil aviation really doesn't seem to have been able to keep up (with respect to hiring for enforcement, surveillance, certification, etc.) I doubt very many government entities around the world could handle that sudden percentage growth. Even airports were caught by surprise. HKT had moderate growth during the 2000s and then suddenly doubled to over 11 million within a four year time frame. And there are a few lingering structural issues at the department that cause more concern now that the size of the operations is so much more significant.

Whether or not this affects tourism is another story.It certainly hurts the ever expanding Thai carriers. But more and more foreign carriers are adding direct flights to secondary Thai cities like HKT, CNX, HDY, KBV, and CEI. And tourism for whatever reason seems to ignore civil strife and military coups after a couple months, despite safety warnings by many foreign governments. This is one of those issues that is highly embarrassing and will just get fixed, but many foreign carriers will continue to do pretty good business into Thailand during the process, assuming they've been performing well already.
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:23 pm

ICAO might not be perfect, but it does provide a baseline standard to comply with.

Individual nations (FAA, EASA) are free to set their own higher compliance standards, but the ICAO findings do provide a good baseline to start the conversation with imo.
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dtw2hyd
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:53 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 9):
While maybe not perfect, its good there is an international body that can go take a look and warn the world when nations are deficient.

They cannot even audit against a common minimum standard consistently. Their audits are all over the map and seems to be far from reality.

Malaysia: Even kids know its CAA has no organizational structure, accident investigation and air nav capabilities with MH370. It is rated higher.

China couldn't prove its accident investigation capabilities during MH370

Indonesia proved they have good organizational structure and reasonable accident investigation capability. Yet they score lower and lot of SSCs.

Qatar scored low in three categories. No SSCs.

India's ICAO scores are good but FAA downgraded. Fine with major CAAs like EASA, JCAB, UK CAA, CASA, CAAS and TC. EU SAFA reiterating its confidence every six months. Most confusing scenario.

Thai, latest scores are not released and JCAB is blocking traffic rights.

You don't need an organization to create such confusion through out the industry. May be software vendors can develop solutions every country can follow.
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lightsaber
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 6:00 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Allegedly Thai authorities only passed 21 out of near 100 areas reviewed by auditors.

Wow...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
ICAO might not be perfect, but it does provide a baseline standard to comply with.

Individual nations (FAA, EASA) are free to set their own higher compliance standards, but the ICAO findings do provide a good baseline to start the conversation with imo.

  

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 13):
India's ICAO scores are good but FAA downgraded.

Huh? The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), of which India is a member, completed an audit of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in 2012 and placed the country in its list of 13 worst-performing nations.

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/vYv...ety-again.html?utm_source=copy


India did not do well on the ICAO, Japanes, or FAA audits. ICAO isn't perfect. But there is also a standard on willingness to bring into compliance. Most nations, when they are found deficient, quickly fix issues even if they disagree just to show they will fix issues. Since that is a major part of the audits to show an adaptable auditing structure, ICAO serves a valuable role.

I would like to see a link saying ICAO gave good scores to India.

Let's get the timeline correct:
US regulator, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) launched its own audit after the findings of ICAO were released, and effected its own downgrade.
http://www.travelbizmonitor.com/Top-...indias-aviation-safety-again-26648


ICAO serves a valuable role. One role is to audit the FAA and other regulatory authorities.

But a good score? India was complaining ICAO wouldn't re-audit and was stuck with the 2012 ranking:
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...tional-civil-aviation-organisation

There must be auditing or standards fall to hell.

The only positive things I saw on ICAO is they performed an audit before the FAA and what they said in words was much more optimistic than how they scored India.


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debonair
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:18 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Immediate fall out from the revised assessment which covers issues of personnel licensing and training, airworthiness assessment and certification, accident investigation and airline operations oversight is that Thai carriers are seeing restrictions placed on their international operations. ...
If EU and US regulators follow the ICAO findings, besides airline route restrictions there would be ticket sale limitations as well which could hurt tourism further.

Last year the Thai Civil Aviation suspended already the AOC's of 2 airlines for quite some period: CityAirways and BusinessAir - so some sort of airline operations oversight seems to work...

Will be interesting to see, if AsianAir will start their International debut to FRA and MUC as planned!

Will this outcome also affect the start-ups, like Skylar Airways, Small Planet Airlines Thailand, ThaiExpress and SiamJet?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:14 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):

As always you are using outdated Indian tabloids as source and there is no need to rehash whole story. Last audit was in 2013. Its scores are above world average in all sections except organization.

http://www.icao.int/safety/Pages/USOAP-Results.aspx

Why can't ICAO flag India red if there are SSCs. Would be simple for every one.


JCAB cannot audit DGCA because there is no audit agreement.

Issue related to B787 battery fire and refit.

NTSB blames GS Yuasa, Boeing, JCAB and FAA.
JCAB blames Boeing and FAA.

http://newscience.ul.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/NTSB_AIR_1401.pdf
http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001064275.pdf

FAA and JCAB did a sloppy job certifying B787 battery and blaming customers for their own fault.

FAA blaming India for buying B787s but couldn't answer why certification was sloppy. This hypocrisy explained in their own words. See the excuse at 2 minute mark.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000244893

Finally, what is the hurry to join Cat-I club with Malaysia.
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zeke
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 2:57 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 16):
As always you are using outdated Indian tabloids as source and there is no need to rehash whole story. Last audit was in 2013. Its scores are above world average in all sections except organization.


India has significant issues with training, maintenance (eg lack of parts to keep 777s and 787s flying), many pilots have been caught with fake logbook hours, over staffed government airlines, a regulator that regulates by the weight of paper work, airports that lack capacity and infrastructure, an air traffic control system that makes is impossible to contact ATC due to frequency congestion....the list goes on.

Dont even get me started on the local habit of transmitting over stations that are already transmitting.

As a regular end user of Indian and Thai civil aviation (oversight, airports, ATC, maintenance), I rank Thailand much higher than India.
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:19 pm

I just so happens that IACO scores India badly and the UAE highly. No wonder DTW2HYD has gone off on a rant again.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 16):
As always you are using outdated Indian tabloids as source and there is no need to rehash whole story

As ever, you fail to show any objectivity, and slam everything and everyone who dares to be critical of India or Air India.


I recommend that people read the last thread on the Indian ICAO / FAA downgrades to see the comical reaction of DTW2HYD. In this thread I have demonstrated with actual facts and statistics (rather than DTWlogic) why India scores badly.


RE: FAA Downgrades India Part 2 (by mandala499 Feb 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 2):
If EU follows will definite have problems for TG and other Thai airlines.

Japan followed - hence the delays to route launches by the stupid idea that is NOKSCOOT.
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dtw2hyd
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 17):
India has significant issues with training, maintenance (eg lack of parts to keep 777s and 787s flying), many pilots have been caught with fake logbook hours, over staffed government airlines, a regulator that regulates by the weight of paper work, airports that lack capacity and infrastructure, an air traffic control system that makes is impossible to contact ATC due to frequency congestion....the list goes on.

None of those were listed in ICAO or FAA audits.

AI 787s go daily to UK, Japan, Germany, France, Australia, Italy, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Russia, Dubai and South Korea. How many times AI 787s were grounded by foreign CAA?

There are 3 x 777 coming to US every day. How many of those are grounded by FAA?

Looking at EU SAFA ramp inspection data from 48 countries reveals a totally different picture. Countries preaching have more issues than other countries.

Back to topic. ICAO is useless and will remain useless for foreseeable future.

Interestingly IAEA can conduct audits with multinational teams which are acceptable to all countries on much security sensitive issue, but ICAO cannot do it.
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jbflyguy84
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:53 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 18):
Japan followed - hence the delays to route launches by the stupid idea that is NOKSCOOT.

Finally a post was made that forced me to buy the membership... Can I ask what your thought process is that leaves you with the result that NokScoot is a stupid idea?

Do you realise NokScoot is the ONLY Thai airline who have charters scheduled in NS15 who have found a way to protect around 15000 passengers from having their plans cancelled (of course there is some disruption, but a large proportion of flights will be operated and passengers being protected)? Even TG's charters have been canned and they don't have enough capacity to reprotect the pax onto their own services schedules. They aren't even allowed to upgauge. I think you are forgetting who the owners of XW are and what they have access to, in particular the relationship one of the partners' CEO has with one of the 2 biggest airlines in Japan's CEO.

As a summary:
TG - charters cancelled, most pax disrupted, some pax moved to scheduled flights
HB - Cancelled altogether
JF - Charters cancelled, no space to reprotect onto their own scheduled services
XJ - Songkran charters cancelled, no space on their scheduled flights. CTS most likely to be cancelled.
XW - 90% of planned flights to be flown by utilising partnerships.

At the end of this debacle, there are likely to be only a handful of international carriers left in Thailand that have an size of relevance - TG, FD, XJ and... XW.

Sorry for going off topic slightly but I just feel it beneficial to put some facts agains such comments.

Cheers!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 18):
I just so happens that IACO scores India badly and the UAE highly. No wonder DTW2HYD has gone off on a rant again.

   There was no good score from ICAO for India.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 18):
In this thread I have demonstrated with actual facts and statistics

Thank you.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 16):
JCAB cannot audit DGCA because there is no audit agreement.

Actually, they did an audit. They're not allowed to do the detailed audits, but they were trying to get maintenance records and failed.

I thank you for the link. The results for India were not good. Organization and Air Navigation services were not acceptable. India wasn't 'red flagged' because that is one hell of a black mark. Would you want Indian airlines to be unable to get insurance? An ICAO red flag is *far worse* than the FAA CAT 2. The issue is ICAO doesn't have a "CAT 2" equivalent. They have everyone except those who shouldn't be flying internationally 'red flagged.'

India has a regulatory problem that the DGCA has yet to address. You implied India had a good score and yet your link shows otherwise. In the ICAO surveys the *only* category the US doesn't do noticeably better is legislation which... Well I happen to agree with the ICAO audit of the USA, we have issues to fix. Take your link and compare Thailand vs. India vs. United states vs. UAE.

If India's organization drops below 50%, they will get red flagged. From an insurance availability standpoint, that would be disastrous for Indian airlines. As I noted before, part of an ICAO audit is for a nation's regulatory authority to show it is willing to adapt and change per the recommendations of the audit to meet international standards. We don't have to agree the changes are 100% necessary, what we can agree on is that any organization that will not adapt is in trouble and heading toward a downgrade. I would like to see Thailand and India improve their rankings. It is up to their regulatory authorities to do so.

Both Thailand and India need to start publishing their aviation statistics and show how they are working on continuous improvement. The same is true of the FAA.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 19):
Back to topic. ICAO is useless and will remain useless for foreseeable future.

Quite the opposite. It is imperfect, but it serves a significant role in the continuous improvement of aviation safety. Thanks in part to ICAO, aviation safety has improved dramatically over the last 50 years. I'm quite willing to discuss how ICAO could be improved, but overall it has been an effective organization since WW2 (yes, formed in 1947, but there was a predecessor organization that started meeting in 1942 that really set the regulatory framework) in rationalizing global aviation standards.


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dtw2hyd
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:28 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
There was no good score from ICAO for India.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
The results for India were not good. Organization and Air Navigation services were not acceptable

If you spend more than 10 seconds, you would notice there are lot of Cat-I countries with lower score than India.

Airline ratings did a detailed study on this topic. It is mind blogging to see the discrepancies between various audits.

http://www.airlineratings.com/safety_rating_per_airline.php

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
India has a regulatory problem that the DGCA has yet to address.

India is not going to do anything to fix its issues. If FAA wants to upgrade it can or leave it.

UAE scores are irrelevant. Copying UK CAA pdfs and changing logos doesn't make GCAA a great regulatory body. I will leave at that.

We can have another thread about India. But my point about ICAO still stands. This is the worst UN organization.
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:36 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 22):
India is not going to do anything to fix its issues.

So, safety isn't an issue in India???? That's why India is one of two countries in the top 70 aviation markets globally which according to the US FAA does not comply with ICAO standards.


India is Category II - which means that (and I quote from the FAA):

Category 2, Does Not Comply with ICAO Standards: The Federal Aviation Administration assessed this country's civil aviation authority (CAA) and determined that it does not provide safety oversight of its air carrier operators in accordance with the minimum safety oversight standards established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).


http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa/definitions/

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 22):
UAE scores are irrelevant. Copying UK CAA pdfs and changing logos doesn't make GCAA a great regulatory body. I will leave at that.

Yet they scored higher than the UK.

The list of unsafe countries, according to the FAA is here:

http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa/media/IASAWS.xlsx



Please note - All links are from source, just so DTW2HYD cannot accuse me of linking to tabloid newspapers.
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lightsaber
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:19 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 22):

India won't do anything to earn an upgrade?!? Even the FAA submits to ICAO audits to improve the process.

You are missing a fundamental point of the audits which is continuous improvement. Aviation is safe due to continuous improvement. Are they really ignoring the options?

If India wants to play by their own rules, that will eventually force a roll back in the bilater. There is pressure to roll back bilateral and air service is such a trivial part.

India won't ever be a superpower if they roll back bilateral in their favor.


Quoting BestWestern (Reply 23):

Nice links.
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christao17
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:46 am

Somehow this thread has been hijacked and the conversation is now about India!

Anyhow, I am not surprised by this report on Thai civil aviation authorities. As lawair pointed out in reply 11, there has been massive growth over the past few years in the Thai aviation sector. It seems that not a month goes by that another charter carrier hasn't launched. A number of scheduled carriers have started in the past few years, too.

A friend who worked here for Boeing was telling me of one airline he visited, a newer charter carrier, that had never purchased the proper manuals from Boeing. Instead, they were operating from photocopied versions they had acquired from another carrier.

With such rapid growth, it isn't surprising that Thai aviation authorities have struggled to keep up!
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777Jet
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:11 am

Quoting christao17 (Reply 25):
With such rapid growth, it isn't surprising that Thai aviation authorities have struggled to keep up!

Agreed.

Something was bound to give with all of the recent rapid growth. That's what make this no surprise at all...

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Thai ministry of transportation say it will seek to “find the solutions to fix the faults that were found in the inspection as soon as possible.”

I really hope that this is what happens - that the authorities there fix the faults with the system both soon and properly.

[Edited 2015-03-28 20:12:43]
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StuckInCA
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:18 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 8):
UNICEF

Meh. You should do more research. Useless might be better than what you suggest in some cases.
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:48 am

Quoting christao17 (Reply 25):
A friend who worked here for Boeing was telling me of one airline he visited, a newer charter carrier, that had never purchased the proper manuals from Boeing. Instead, they were operating from photocopied versions they had acquired from another carrier.

Wow! That is amazing. That shows the need for audits to verify such practices are not common. For photocopied manuals would never be kept up to date with NOTAM or other updates. The aviation authorities should be catching such behavior as it is indicative of improper training and maintenance compliance. That, if true, is a shocking example.

Quoting christao17 (Reply 25):

Somehow this thread has been hijacked and the conversation is now about India!

Mea culpa. I shall keep on thread.

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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:25 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 23):
India is Category II - which means that (and I quote from the FAA):

Category 2, Does Not Comply with ICAO Standards: The Federal Aviation Administration assessed this country's civil aviation authority (CAA) and determined that it does not provide safety oversight of its air carrier operators in accordance with the minimum safety oversight standards established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

Take Cat-II definition and ICAO audit data to nearest Elementary School Second Graders and ask them to use "English Comprehension" and "Comparing Numbers".
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:44 pm

Oh dear, this isn't a good sign... I really hope that somehow, they can avoid ending up like India with that nasty Category, or worse. Not that they exactly have much to the USA to lose anymore.
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:11 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 29):
Take Cat-II definition and ICAO audit data to nearest Elementary School Second Graders and ask them to use "English Comprehension" and "Comparing Numbers".

Let's focus on organization.

Thailand is in danger of Cat 2 (or possibly worse).

Samoa is trying to adapt.

Why is Russia on your list? For a still high legislation?

Others I found they were cooperating with ICAO recommendations. India's issue was not reforming at an observable pace. Thailand... Is in worse shape. It will take ICAO time, but there in for worse than Indonesia. The meaningful impact will be insurance rates and requirements.


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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:23 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
There was no good score from ICAO for India.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
The results for India were not good.

False. India has good scores than lot of CAT-I countries.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
If India's organization drops below 50%, they will get red flagged.

False. There are lot countries with score less than 50. No stated SSCs. No audits or downgrades for years.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
India's issue was not reforming at an observable pace.

False. Only agency continuously monitors aviation safety for real is EASA. EU SAFA ramp inspections (at 48 countries) show no issues with maintenance or log keeping.

EU officially stated two times since downgrade it is fully satisfied with India's progress. Of course EASA is not A.Net authorized inspection agency. They have lower standards than a.nutters.
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:00 pm

I know, it is all a big conspiracy against India by the United States. For those that don't believe in conspiracy theories, there is a rationale behind the results that isn't contained in the averaging of averages that a certain poster is using as his argument.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...t-jet-airways-most-affected-150822

Centre for aviation, a quality research outfit (although our esteemed friend will disagree no doubt) in the report above states why. Again, I will state that this is not a dodgy tabloid, less I be blamed for that.


And I quote

insufficient attention was given to strengthening safety oversight. The DGCA was neglected and was not equipped with the resources to handle the demands placed upon it. Without the requisite manpower, and more importantly without the technical skills and expertise, the regulator became weak and over-burdened. The business and general aviation sector had particularly poor safety and security oversight.

It continues

In 2009 the FAA, concerned by what it considered to be gross under-staffing, particularly in the Directorate of Airworthiness, threatened to downgrade India to Category II status. There was a brief flurry of activity and following the implementation of several remedial measures and after the Indian Cabinet committed to recruiting more than 500 additional staff India passed the next FAA audit and retained its Category 1 status.

However, with the threat of a downgrade averted complacency returned and the momentum was lost.

At the time the DGCA estimated that it required 928 positions to adequately oversee the level of activity in the sector compared with its actual workforce of 400. The shortage was particularly acute in the Directorates of Air Worthiness and Air Safety where there were just 79 ‘A’ grade directors and officers relative to a sanctioned strength of 330.



So, in 2009 the Indian Govermnet promised to hire 500 Staff.... So what did it to.....

Since 2009 the DGCA has recruited just 67 full-time employees and 62 consultants or secondees.

And traffic in the meantime has increased by more than 50%.


The article continues


The decision to recruit 75 inspectors in Jan-2014 was again done under the threat of a downgrade. The concern is that there is a lack of commitment to safety with an approach that involves reacting to threats in order to scrape through and meet minimum requirements – and in this case not even that – rather than pro-actively seeking to achieve a best practice safety culture which requires leadership, talent, investment and execution.


And that is the nub of the issue. India wants to, and fails at scraping through, rather than "pro-actively seeking to achieve a best practice safety culture which requires leadership, talent, investment and execution"


Finally the article ends by saying

Solving the problem will not be easy; finding and/or training adequately qualified bureaucrats is a challenging task. The first step along the route to improvement is however to confront the reality of the situation and its awesomely negative impact on India's aviation resource.

The downgrade is a matter which rests solely at the government's door; at least the FAA's action will force a recognition of India's regulatory shortcomings. The next step is to do something about it, but few will be holding their breath in anticipation.



And there we find the attitude matches with a certain poster here. India compared with the worst, not the best, failure to see there is an issue in a blame the standards, not the failure to meet them way.

At least our Indonesian colleagues here recognise there is a problem, and agree that it needs to be fixed. Just like the Philippines did.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:26 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 33):

Switched back to tabloids after posting definitions without even reading or understanding the definition.

Is 57 bigger or smaller than 33?
Is 55 bigger or smaller than 25?

Simple math comparison. You don't need a PhD in Math from Université de Montréal or Georgetown.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:29 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 8):
ICAO is one useless organization which should be dissolved and its budget should be reallocated

How do you propose setting and maintaining consistent international standards then? Or would you prefer each nation to make their own rules up, and the resulting hodge podge?
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:50 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 34):
Switched back to tabloids after posting definitions without even reading or understanding the definition.

I know, its just a big conspiracy against India. terrible. isn't it.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:57 pm

Colleagues - lets remain focused on tread topic Thailand and forget the Indian distractions.

In news from today China says it will ban new services from Thailand, while both China and Singapore will begun conducting inspections of Thai registered aircraft and crews.

Additionally unnamed airline executive says its quite possible Thailand will end up on EU and US blacklist, while multiple airline heads state they are disappointed at the poor showing of Thai authorities and see corrective action as "too late and too slow."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/tran...korea-in-restricting-thai-carriers
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 37):
Colleagues - lets remain focused on tread topic Thailand and forget the Indian distractions.

Interesting suggestion. See Reply #9.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 9):
After all it was ICAO which uncovered many of the deficiencies with India and Philippines for example which were followed up by parties like the FAA which downgraded them following its own confirmation.
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LAXintl
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:21 pm

Yes indeed the thread of this topic is Thailand, and it looks like the nation might indeed follow others like India, Philippines or Indonesia down onto the downgrade/blacklist.

Though for those that enjoy debating India and merits surrounding its safety status, please start your own thread.
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lightsaber
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 37):

China is apparently interested in ICAO's findings.

I wonder if China will have issues with obtaining records as Japan did with another nations airliners...

Records prove compliance with audits to match actual versus paper.

Anyone with an aerospace "stamp" knows the weight. There is nothing like defending a stamp to make you respect the process.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 39):

Many nations have proven the will only respond to a downgrade. Some still argue rather than reform.

So far I haven't seen any nation downgraded that didn't deserve it. If anything, political interference is keeping nations from being downgraded that should be.

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lawair
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:16 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 39):
Yes indeed the thread of this topic is Thailand, and it looks like the nation might indeed follow others like India, Philippines or Indonesia down onto the downgrade/blacklist.

At the current rate, this will absolutely happen. The effect it will have on Thailand may be particular to Thailand, however, in both good and bad ways. There are a couple issues unique to Thailand that I can discuss to the best of my knowledge. I could easily be wrong on some things--I'm only in Thailand for a part of each year.

-Current Government - The Thai government has given this issue a very high priority, and since it basically has a rubber-stamp government at the moment, it can push things through in favor of what the PM wants a lot more easily than in normal circumstances. ("The head of Thailand's ruling junta may use extraordinary constitutional powers to expedite safety improvements in the aviation sector, which is facing international sanctions, the country's transport minister said Monday." - AP) The government has also shown that it is very reactive (and perhaps sensitive) to media reports and international actions against the country, so this won't be one of those issues that has been tucked under the rug as in the past several governments. (Both major parties are at fault in this, and the current PM has admitted that "Thailand has no one to blame but itself.")

-Labor Shortage - With unemployment at or under 1% and an influx of low-skilled foreign labor over the past several years, recruitment due to staff shortages will likely be an issue. It probably won't be a matter of just raising compensation rates to stimulate the local market for inspectors; there will need to be a significant push to hire foreign knowledgeable labor at a fairly high cost. The good news is that the government can legislate this fairly quickly compared to previous governments, but the bad news is, I really don't see a way for the actual recruitment to take place within a time frame that will satisfy ICAO and foreign governments. I believe the Philippines had similar issues regarding compensation, and based on our conversation, India has had a problem with recruitment.

-Strong Air Carriers - Thailand has five significantly sized carriers that have a major international/regional presence or international expansion ambitions. The major players, as far as I can tell, include two full service carriers and three low fare carriers. All are dealing with different circumstances, but the ICAO findings hurt them the most out of anyone else in Thailand. They have no interest in sitting around waiting more than a month for the government response on this, so they will be meeting to discuss their strategic plans this week.

- - - TG/WE - As we all know they have been in a terrible financial situation for the past two years. In the worst case scenario in which TG is banned from Europe, that would mean a loss of 12-13 routes and over 60 weekly flights (with current restructuring already taken into account). TG would need to accelerate the sale and separation of aircraft, staff, equipment, property, etc. An inability to codeshare could cause European and Middle Eastern carriers to pick up the slack with their own equipment. Part of TG's restructuring was to expand in Asia where demand has picked back up; it won't be able to do this and loses out on an opportunity for additional revenue as a result.

- - - PG - The carrier went public with an IPO late last year and has been in expansion mode, with additional frequencies approved out of its home base of USM. It makes heavy use of codeshares with European, Asian, and Australian carriers. It was profitable last year (but less so than in previous years), but with less feed and new aircraft coming online (with nowhere to put them), they could go into the red this year.

- - - Nok/NokScoot - NokScoot has had several delays in getting off the ground, partly due to the certification process. It had hoped to launch Japan (later switching to South Korea) and couldn't do either as a result of both countries' responses to the ICAO findings. It, at least, has a big brother in Singapore's Scoot that it is attempting to use to provide services for the time being.

- - - Thai AirAsia/Thai AirAsia X - Thai AirAsia X will be most hurt by this. They do operate to Japan and South Korea, but they had hopes of expanding to cities like Sapporo. I'm not sure if that will get off the ground now. The good news for them is that NokScoot couldn't get started in time, so it gets to fly to its current routes without extra competition. It also has a sibling to look to for help--AirAsia X.

- - - Thai Lion Air - Thai Lion Air is getting a lot of new aircraft and definitely has ambitions to expand really rapidly. Its domestic expansion is ongoing, but it also has been wanting to start services to China and Singapore this year. It does not look like that will happen. It already had to discontinue its focus city operations in Hat Yai, so I'm not quite sure how sustainable they will be long term.

- - - Others - Thai Vietjet has barely gotten off the ground. It wants to start services to China and Singapore as well, among other places. I think this one needs to go away.

-Other Issues?

- - - ICAO presence - Bangkok is the site of ICAO's regional office for the Asia/Pacific region. What role does ICAO have in Thailand's audit, and what role will they have in following up on Thailand's action plan? I really have no idea. Is it better, worse, or does it not matter that ICAO is already stationed there?

- - - Tourism - I'm going to say there will be very little impact on tourism here. If TG kills a major route, some foreign carrier will take over; the demand is there. February tourist arrivals are up nearly 30% over last year. I doubt that inbound tourism will be more influenced by an ICAO audit compared to a military coup, and we've already shown that a military coup did not destroy visitor numbers long-term. If there are concerns about flying a Thai carrier, then they will just fly with someone else to get to Thailand.
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:51 pm

Thank you lawair for your synopsis.

Quoting lawair (Reply 41):
- - - Tourism - I'm going to say there will be very little impact on tourism here. If TG kills a major route, some foreign carrier will take over; the demand is there. February tourist arrivals are up nearly 30% over last year. I doubt that inbound tourism will be more influenced by an ICAO audit compared to a military coup, and we've already shown that a military coup did not destroy visitor numbers long-term. If there are concerns about flying a Thai carrier, then they will just fly with someone else to get to Thailand.

Remember if there is blacklist in EU, it would likely restrict travel agents and tour operators from selling tickets on Thai carriers due insurance coverage issue.
This same effect occurred on Indonesian carrier had during black list and hurt ability of travel agents from selling domestic tickets within Indonesia. I know some agents had to sell XXX-SIN-XXX to move people across archipelago.
So such restriction could hurt movement of European customers within Thailand negatively.
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:17 am

Since BKK is at best marginal for Europeam carriers, I can see most going the yield route and perhaps incrrasing aircraft size.

If Thai is banned from Europe it will do a lot to relieve over capacity in South east Asian markets.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:25 pm

TG issued a statement to travel agents.


Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI) issues the following statement regarding ICAO USOAP (International Civil Aviation Organization Universal Safety Oversight Audit Program) audit findings on the Thai Department of Civil Aviation (DCA).

Mr. Charamporn Jotikasthira, THAI President, firmly stated that “THAI places safety first before finances.” No matter the outcome of the ICAO USOAP audits on Thai Department of Civil Aviation (Thai DCA), Thai Airways International (THAI) is committed to delivering the highest safety practices for the flying public.

Regarding the ICAO USOAP findings, while the Thai DCA passed the last ICAO USOAP audit in 2005 with no Significant Safety Concerns (SSC) being issued, the recent audit resulted in findings that attributed to ICAO issuing an SCC. Though the findings are most undesirable, it can be viewed as a positive potential for Thailand in that the USOAP audit results will trigger a leap in improvements in aviation safety monitoring standards. The Royal Thai government is committed to bringing Thai DCA abreast to meet all requirements of aviation industry.

THAI continuously takes an active role in various international governmental and non-governmental safety-related activities, meetings and conferences. THAI also participates in many of the industry's programs alongside manufacturers and other airline experts. These conferences serve to keep THAI’s human expertise updated on the latest developments and practices, which in turn are incorporated into THAI operations. THAI continuously reviews and implements safety technologies to operate our flights safely and efficiently, meeting required standards as well as exceeding standards that are required by external authorities.

Regarding the additional safety checks around the world, aviation authorities have been conducting regular safety checks on Thailand airlines, including THAI. Today, as a result of the ICAO USOAP findings on Thai DCA, THAI (and other Thai carriers) are being inspected more frequently. But this is normal practice by the aviation authorities and THAI welcomes it, as the results allow THAI to prove our dedication to safety practices.

Through all THAI’s efforts in the past and currently, THAI would like the travelling public and partner airlines to have confidence in the safety and efficiency of THAI operations. THAI is doing all we can to assure authorities, customers, employees, business alliance and partners, and stakeholders that THAI is deeply committed to meeting compliance above and beyond the required standards and to conform to safety regulations, standards and best practices around the world.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:40 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 44):
TG issued a statement to travel agents.

Thank you for sharing that.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 44):
THAI would like the travelling public and partner airlines to have confidence in the safety and efficiency of THAI operations.

I have 100% confidence in TG and I am looking forward to my 7 flights on TG coming up in a few months  
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BestWestern
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Apr 04, 2015 3:04 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 44):
“THAI places safety first before finances.”

Wow, just wow....

They have their excuse for losing hundreds of millions...

Such wonderfully written PR.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 45):
I have 100% confidence in TG and I am looking forward to my 7 flights on TG coming up in a few months

It seems that a number of CAA's and ICAO dont have the same confidence levels.
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lawair
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Apr 04, 2015 3:58 am

Japan is relaxing restrictions for two months: http://bangkokpost.com/news/transpor...ontinue-chartered-flights-to-japan
(Japan had an interest in allowing Thai tourist traffic to continue into Japan during the peak Thai travel season. I thought about this as a potential consideration, but didn't think it would actually make much of a difference if concerns over safety were trumping everything else. Thais accounted for the 6th highest tourist traffic into Japan in 2014, growing at 45%. But Japan relies far less on tourism, even if they are very interested in increasing it.)

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 46):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 45):
I have 100% confidence in TG and I am looking forward to my 7 flights on TG coming up in a few months

It seems that a number of CAA's and ICAO dont have the same confidence levels.

The lack of confidence is really in the Thai Department of Civil Aviation, which I think even the PM might agree he lacks confidence in, in the department's current state. But if you ask Thais, many of them probably have lost a lot of confidence in their airlines too, though they're misinterpreting the reported findings as meaning their airlines are all now unsafe.

This was also informative, but there are parts of the article that are incorrect:

Quote:
The agency is indeed understaffed with the same number of employees since over a decade ago. In a decade’s time, air traffic doubled in Thailand jumping from 300,000 to 600,000 movements a year. ICAO warnings to the Thai civil aviation agency go back to 2009 without any effect.
http://www.eturbonews.com/57262/thai...t-avoid-humiliating-ban-thai-airli

Tidbits of information have been coming out about the Thai government response:

Quote:
"I can affirm that our safety standards are still high, but have to admit that new equipment is needed. We have been using the same system for approximately 10 years now without any renovation.

"We will address this problem swiftly and will comply with the ICAO. The current administration is adamant to resolve this issue within 30 days, which is the first phase.

"A new committee will be set up to replace the old one, which consists of 11-12 members. The plan should take approximately 90 days. The ICAO is giving Thailand three months to overhaul the system, but I want it fixed within the next 30 days.

"I have instructed the Civil Aviation Department to add more specialists and will utilize Article 44 in order to make the new system work.

"We will hire experts from foreign countries to help us fix these glitches. Everything must be finished within a month. The next phase, which will run for 90 days, is about establishing a 'National Institute of Civil Aviation'," Prayut said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busi...boost-civil-aviation-30257418.html

(Article 44 is effectively what is replacing martial law in Thailand and has been heavily criticized by foreign governments and watchdog groups...but it does give the Thai government the ability to act a lot more swiftly to make changes, provide funding, and fundamentally restructure the aviation department. Whether any of it happens, of course, remains to be seen. My skepticism is based on the track record of prior civilian governments, however.)
 
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:18 am

Transport Minister Prajin Juntong said on Friday that Thai aviation authorities had to improve their air transport certification to meet the ICAO's standards within its 90-day deadline; otherwise, Thai-registered airlines could not operate in the countries that were members of the ICAO.

link:http://bangkokpost.com/news/transport/517671/deal-signed-to-continue-chartered-flights-to-japan.


The deadline will fall on June 2.
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RE: ICAO: Thailand 'Safety Concern'; Faces Intl Bans

Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:41 pm

Quoting lawair (Reply 41):

Your list of airlines has only positive ones. By looking at your list, there seems nothing wrong esp. average age of fleets. There are several airlines that concerns ICAO in many aspects, and they are:

Orient Thai
Jet Asia Airlines
Air Atlantic Airways

Averaged fleet ages are between 24 and 27 for these airlines. You might have unheard of them but they are running by bargain travel agencies from Japan, Korea, and China. Not sure Thai government would do anything on these airlines.

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