Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 12

jetblueguy22 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:11 pm

As the previous thread got quite long Part 12 has been created to continue the conversation.

The Moderators ask that you remain respectful of everybody. This is a hot topic and things easily get heated.

Regards,
Pat

orbital · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:20 pm

The bbc is reporting that the recent medical issues were due to a physical condition, and not a mental health issue:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32087203

Duesseldorf's University Hospital issued a statement (in German) saying Mr Lubitz had attended the hospital on 10 March and last month.
Adding that it had handed his medical records over to prosecutors, it said reports the co-pilot had been treated there for depression were incorrect.
Germany's Rheinischer Post newspaper, which spoke to the hospital, quoted its own unnamed sources as saying Mr Lubitz had been suffering from a physical, rather than a mental, illness.

LTC8K6 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:21 pm

Kaiarahi:

'Which would be illegal in many jurisdictions, including the U.S. Pilots are, however, subject to regular medical examinations to maintain their ATPL or equivalent. "

Now it might be illegal.

It is time to put certain people, with lots of lives in their hands, into a special category, imo.

Where it is less likely that a medical/mental problem can be concealed from their employer.

LTC8K6 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting orbital (Reply 1):

The bbc is reporting that the recent medical issues were due to a physical condition, and not a mental health issue:

So he is not mentally ill then.

Back to square one.

Why does he crash the plane?

26point2 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:31 pm

Decades ago we learned not to trust the luggage. Then we learned not to trust the passengers either. Eventually we stopped trusting cabin crew and now this development....we don't trust the pilots? What's next, an Air Marshal goes berserk?

Another sad era for commercial aviation. It's probably been said before in this long thread but the terrorists win...again.

orbital · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):
So he is not mentally ill then.

Back to square one.

Why does he crash the plane?

I certainly wouldn't say he wasn't mentally ill. Not yet. But it is another zigzag trying to understand this tragedy, for sure.

TheSonntag · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:32 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):

Why does he crash the plane?

We don't know. Focus says he bought 2 Audi cars last week, one for him, one for his girlfriend.

I think it is time to let the people do their work and wait.

bjorn14 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:33 pm

Then why did his doctor tell him he was unfit to fly the day he crashed the plane? Inner ear infection?

osiris30 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):
So he is not mentally ill then.

Well maybe not from a liability perspective for the carrier. Mental illness can be difficult to diagnose and nearly impossible to PROVE. Everyone here talking about forcing doctors to disclose has no idea what they are talking about, especially on this subject. They will just make the problem worse.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):
Back to square one.

Not really.. would love to hear what the physical issue was...

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):
Why does he crash the plane?

I'm done speculating. Every piece of news that's come out people have jumped to conclusions about his mental state, depression, suicide, etc.. and it's all be assumptions at best. How about we wait and see what a proper investigation turns up.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 2):
It is time to put certain people, with lots of lives in their hands, into a special category, imo.

Where it is less likely that a medical/mental problem can be concealed from their employer.

Yes... Of course. Let's create a situation where a false diagnosis can end someone's career. Or even a legitimate one. Let's take away the rights and freedoms (and responsibilities) of individuals to be more 'safe'. Except guess what? It doesn't work that way. I'm appalled by how often I see people from what is supposed to be the land of the free and home of the brave wanting to hide behind false senses of security.

Depression can be a sudden onset thing. Unless you're also suggesting that employers would have the right to monitor the employees personal life to the finest detail (oh you broke up with your significant other, well you can't fly till you talk to our staff shrink). Where do you draw the line so that is ACTUALLY has a benefit.

Also let's not forget putting people under that level of scrutiny may CAUSE more/different problems.

A far better way to deal with this is have companies that give a $hit about their employees and staff and create an environment where people feel supported, and comfortable that if they have an issue, they can take the time to deal with it and not end their career in the process.

flymia · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:53 pm

Quoting 26point2 (Reply 4):
..we don't trust the pilots?

Its not like this is a new thing. This has happened before.

PanHAM · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:55 pm

Quote from part 11
I'm sorry to say but with all the information about this guy popping up left and right (in case they are right), heads must roll at Lufthansa, and the first head is the one of the CEO.

A guy with a medical record at Lufthansa saying "needs regular psychological tests", with little flight hours in 18 months time and regular professional timeouts for psychological treatment, you're not putting that guy in full responsibility of a 70 tons airplane with 150 souls in the back, flying at 38000 feets at 850km/h, ALONE.

I know that airline employees here won't agree to me but I don't care, I seriously think about not letting my family take any airplane in the next 18 months until all airlines optimized their pilot assessments, which will for sure happen now.

Lufthansa made some very very big mistakes here.

Alfons

unquote

I'd say that LH did it by the book. The guy passed all physical, medical and Simulator tests, h had a valid license, so how could LH have suspended him? He woulld have taken LH to court and won.
He had a contract with LH which puts rights and liabilities on both sides. If he had been acting funny or in any other way suspicious, the captaoin would have had the right to refuse flying with him., even if it had mant to delay the flight until a new FO had been flown in. It does not necessarily take a psychological test to come to the conclusion that there is something wrong with the guy.

Not LH , only the LBA can revoke his license. LH has to observe the rules and regulations set by the law makers. The law makers did not give the companies the right to get Information of the sort of illness their employees have. That should be reconsidered, in view of what can result. At least the LBA should receive such Information. Not sure of doctors are allowed or even required to do that.

richierich · Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:58 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 6):
We don't know. Focus says he bought 2 Audi cars last week, one for him, one for his girlfriend.

This could be taken a number of ways.
While it could imply a desire for a future, it could also be seen as spending money he doesn't have and perhaps even setting the motion of a planned suicide into action . Could he afford two new Audis on his 4U salary? I don't know but that seems a bit excessive considering what we know happened this week...

[Edited 2015-03-27 09:59:47]

scbriml · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:04 pm

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 8):
Yes... Of course. Let's create a situation where a false diagnosis can end someone's career. Or even a legitimate one. Let's take away the rights and freedoms (and responsibilities) of individuals to be more 'safe'. Except guess what? It doesn't work that way.

So you'd be perfectly happy for a pilot to conceal a mental or physical issue that has an impact on his ability to perform his job, from his employer? Just to remind you, his job is to safely transport hundreds of people from A to B, possibly multiple times a day.

You reduce the chances of a false diagnosis by always having a second, independent opinion. If two doctors agree that a pilot is unfit for work (for whatever reason), then there must be a compulsion for the employer to be advised - a pilot cannot be allowed to simply ignore the medical situation as Lubitz did.

Delta777Jet · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:11 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 10):
He woulld have taken LH to court and won.

That would be significantly better than the result we have now. Sometimes you need to get rid of bad and dangerous employees (people) before they destroy your business or will cost you more on the long run. To fire someone who is with the company for just 1.5 years would not be that expensive, even if LH loose in court.

I'm sure now they will scroll through their files, who else could be such candidate.

[Edited 2015-03-27 10:12:35]

qf789 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:13 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 6):
We don't know. Focus says he bought 2 Audi cars last week, one for him, one for his girlfriend.

That's interesting. There have been reports today that he and his girlfriend have recently broken up.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...iatric-treatment-article-1.2164228

Dreadnought · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting QF789 (Reply 14):
That's interesting. There have been reports today that he and his girlfriend have recently broken up.

Even more interesting. German reports are coming out that the co-pilot may have recently converted to Islam.

http://speisa.com/modules/articles/i...airbus-was-a-convert-to-islam.html

The source is not prime material, but let's see where that goes.

CF-CPI · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:19 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
a pilot cannot be allowed to simply ignore the medical situation as Lubitz did.

Perhaps I can get clarification on this. It is said now that 1) Lubitz was recently being treated for physical conditions (non-mental health) and that 2) Lubitz had an 'unfit to fly note' day of his BCN trip, which was torn up and left in his home.

Can we really assume the 'unfit to fly' was directly related to the physical conditions requiring recent treatment, or to something else (mental) that is not being revealed? Lubitz was deemed unfit to fly, but flew anyway, and that in and of itself is serious, regardless of the reason on that day.

I am reading that he was under psychological treatment during a period of 18 months circa 2009, which may have included the 6 month period when he took a break from training. I hope that we get to the bottom of what his treatment entailed. Was he put on meds? If so, were they discontinued? I assume the physical declaring him '100% fit' to be licensed included a urinalysis. Did Lubitz discontinue his meds so as to hide his condition?

Mir · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:20 pm

Quoting 26point2 (Reply 4):
It's probably been said before in this long thread but the terrorists win...again.

Can't really say it's terrorists this time. Human stupidity, perhaps.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 6):
I think it is time to let the people do their work and wait.

This story isn't even a week old, and the misinformation that has been going around is not only ridiculous, but harmful as well. We will, in due course, find out what happened. We will know the FO's medical history, and we'll know what he was treated for, mental or not, and when. Until then, the knee-jerk reactions about how to deal with mentally unstable pilots aren't helpful at all.

-Mir

PHLBOS · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:26 pm

I did a quick search and didn't find anything mentioned in any Germanwigs thread but NYC Aviation's Phil Derner (A.net's BigPhilNYC) discusses the crash on New York City's News 4 broadcast.

"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981

seahawk · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:31 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 15):
Even more interesting. German reports are coming out that the co-pilot may have recently converted to Islam.

http://speisa.com/modules/articles/i...airbus-was-a-convert-to-islam.html

The source is not prime material, but let's see where that goes.

Fake. All reports were bad fakes.

SOBHI51 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:36 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 15):
Even more interesting. German reports are coming out that the co-pilot may have recently converted to Islam.

http://speisa.com/modules/articles/i...airbus-was-a-convert-to-islam.html

The source is not prime material, but let's see where that goes.

Well you should have waited then before posting
And here it is

Quoting seahawk (Reply 19):
Fake. All reports were bad fakes.

Dreadnought, you are smarter than to fall for such fake reports

ikramerica · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:38 pm

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 15):
Even more interesting. German reports are coming out that the co-pilot may have recently converted to Islam.

That's garbage reporting there. True or not, recent is 2009? That's when he took his "break" from training. If he had converted 6 years ago, people would have known.

I would wait for a more reputable source before posting this kind of garbage.

osiris30 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
So you'd be perfectly happy for a pilot to conceal a mental or physical issue that has an impact on his ability to perform his job, from his employer?

No. I don't think I said anything remotely like that. I said I don't think changing laws to make it mandatory for doctors to report on patients' condition is a good idea and will cause more problems then it will solve.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
Just to remind you, his job is to safely transport hundreds of people from A to B, possibly multiple times a day.

Clearly I had forgotten that

My entire point of the post was that making it more forced will lead to MORE issues as people will avoid getting help all together and also not self-report thereby making a bad problem worse.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
You reduce the chances of a false diagnosis by always having a second, independent opinion. If two doctors agree that a pilot is unfit for work (for whatever reason), then there must be a compulsion for the employer to be advised - a pilot cannot be allowed to simply ignore the medical situation as Lubitz did.

All fine and dandy in places like Canada and the UK and most of Europe where health care is paid for, but getting a second opinion in other parts of the world can be very expensive or even impossible. (Even in Canada it's very difficult, and you cannot force someone to go to the Dr.)

As for a compulsion for an employer to be advised, you're treading on some very delicate legal ground, that when crossed sets a bad precedent and would only result in people with issues not seeking medical help. This is not how to handle the problem.

If you read the rest of my post I went on to say:

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 8):
Also let's not forget putting people under that level of scrutiny may CAUSE more/different problems.

A far better way to deal with this is have companies that give a $hit about their employees and staff and create an environment where people feel supported, and comfortable that if they have an issue, they can take the time to deal with it and not end their career in the process.

aerobus12 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:47 pm

Is there a possibility that the pilots could have departed with the door in "locked" position for extra safety, the door is unlocked when the captain leaves, Lubitz re-locks the door, yet again for safety, he then suffers some sort of incapacitation and changes the ALT setting in panic before becoming unable to move or unconscious. The captain, who expected Lubitz to open the door when he knocks on, is locked out.

This is a scenario that must be investigated. It could be nothing more that some pilots feel that this gives some extra cockpit security, without thinking of the hazards.

hivue · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:52 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 3):
So he is not mentally ill then.

Say what? He apparently murdered 149 people and killed himself.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 15):
The source is not prime material, but let's see where that goes.

I can hear the flushing sound now.

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 22):
Quoting osiris30 (Reply 8):Also let's not forget putting people under that level of scrutiny may CAUSE more/different problems.

A far better way to deal with this is have companies that give a $hit about their employees and staff and create an environment where people feel supported, and comfortable that if they have an issue, they can take the time to deal with it and not end their career in the process.

Significant clinical depression for an airline pilot will be career ending. No way giving a $hit about employees will sugarcoat that.

rolfen · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:52 pm

Whatever the case, there is, in most cases, "warning signs" that one can dig up when looking at someone's past. People will say they should have heeded the warning, they should've known, but you know what they say, hindsight is 100/100.
Strange though, in this case there seems to be any such thing, or maybe it just hasn't been publicized yet. But with all the info getting through, you'd think that such a thing would hit the press quickly.

planemaker · Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:56 pm

Aviation Week just published this:

Pilot-Proofing Cockpits Takes Center Stage

Quote:
According to data from Flightradar24, a crowd-sourced provider of automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B) tracking, the Germanwings co-pilot likely changed the altitude command for the Airbus’s autopilot system shortly after arriving at cruise altitude. After the captain left the cockpit, the co-pilot presumably dialed the autopilot system hold altitude down to 100 ft. Flightradar24 officials say it took two days to decode the ADS-B data, which is included in the transponder stream and had been sent to investigators in addition to being published online.

strfyr51 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 10):
A guy with a medical record at Lufthansa saying "needs regular psychological tests", with little flight hours in 18 months time and regular professional timeouts for psychological treatment, you're not putting that guy in full responsibility of a 70 tons airplane with 150 souls in the back, flying at 38000 feets at 850km/h, ALONE.

I know that airline employees here won't agree to me but I don't care, I seriously think about not letting my family take any airplane in the next 18 months until all airlines optimized their pilot assessments, which will for sure happen now.

Lufthansa made some very very big mistakes here.

Alfons

What airline guys won't agree with you?? That Guy needed HELP!! Germanwings doesn't do PYSC tests. Well?
I'll bet they MIGHT in the Future!! This looks BAD for the Home team.

osiris30 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:02 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 24):
Significant clinical depression for an airline pilot will be career ending. No way giving a $hit about employees will sugarcoat that.

If you're saying untreatable/managable/'curable' then sure, I agree. But where is the line and when does it cross that threshold. If you give people the hope they can deal with issues and then return to work eventually many more will actually get help. I think many people would be shocked by the number of ticking time bombs we have in key positions in the world because they can't do just that.

A lot of depression can be managed. There is also situation-ally induced depression. Lots of different things. There is severe depression that can be brought on by anxiety, which can be treated very effectively given time and effort.

I agree that someone (edit) UNfit shouldn't be flying at the moment they are unfit, but the way things are handled now, being unfit to fly in any major way for any length of time, results in pretty much never being able to fly again... that causes people to not get treatment and report. Even if you can't fly anymore, maybe there is still a place for you within the organization. There are things that can be done to make getting help safer for ALL involved. The individual, the company and the general public at large.

[Edited 2015-03-27 11:11:19]

s5daw · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:07 pm

I'm still puzzled on how wrong the initial report was. Remember the Av herald story AFTER the CVR has been listened to?

"CVR data has been read. It seems structural failure (windshield? not determined yet)..It was quick... sound of cracks,but crew initiated emergency descent by autopilot and then they weren't heard anymore. Autopilot was on during whole descent, but disconnected automatically shortly before impact when GPWS alerts appeared."

We went from there to suicide... How?

hivue · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:09 pm

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 28):
If you're saying untreatable/managable/'curable' then sure, I agree. But where is the line and when does it cross that threshold. If you give people the hope they can deal with issues and then return to work eventually many more will actually get help.

Agreed.

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 28):
A lot of depression can be managed.

Agreed.

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 28):
but the way things are handled now, being unfit to fly in any major way for any length of time, results in pretty much never being able to fly again... that causes people to not get treatment and report.

My point is that things will stay that way. I'm not saying it's right -- it's just the way things are.

hivue · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:13 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 27):
Germanwings doesn't do PYSC tests.

Any documentation for the claim that LH and 4U don't do psych testing?

osiris30 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:14 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 30):
My point is that things will stay that way. I'm not saying it's right -- it's just the way things are.

Which is why I bring it up. Before CRM was common there was no CRM. People had to look at the problem and suggest changes to make aviation safer. This is no different.

I could say what you said above to everyone who is screaming for mandated disclosure to employers of health issues for pilots by doctors. Or to people who are arguing for different door systems. Aviation is as safe as it is today because when a problem is identified it IS changed, regardless of the way it was before.

My thoughts/comments/suggestions are just that. Thoughts and suggestions. I don't have the power to change anything, nor (really) do (m)any of us here.

Finally, for the record, I agree with:

Quoting hivue (Reply 30):
it's just the way things are.

It's just sad that it is.

pvjin · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:15 pm

Quoting s5daw (Reply 29):

I guess some random person posted bunch of made up junk and the media took it for real, that's all.

Lizzie · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:17 pm

Quoting AR385:
Quoting Lizzie (Reply 128):
I'm just warning that making depression trigger a lifetime ban on flying is going increase the risk of pilots with undiagnosed and untreated depression flying, not reduce it.

There are certain jobs that people diagnosed with Clinical Depression, that are taking medication and receiving professional counseling should not be engaged in. Pilot is one of them. Sorry to disagree. A pilot with CD, and meds for it cannot be flying unless total disclosure is made mandatory and the airline has a program to accommodate such a pilot.

And I don't disagree. What I said was that making depression trigger a lifetime ban on flying is going increase the risk of pilots with undiagnosed and untreated depression flying, not reduce it.

Quoting AR385:

15% of those diagnosed with Clinical Depression will commit suicide. Of those diagnosed with their first episode of CD, their chances of having a second episode are 50% and once a second episode has ocurred, the chances of having a third episode are 70%. If this person already had what appears to be a major episode while in training, LH really screwed up here as regular monitoring should have been required and questions asked about wether he was fit to continue in their program. Somebody decided he was, today we see the results. And while yes, this is not typical, it´s a known risk. So the question may be, how much risk is the flying public willing to take when a person with a clearly, diagnosed mental illness is sitting up front? A condition that is known to have a suicide as one of its consequences in not a small percentage of those diagnosed with it.

That figure is incorrect. It always was incorrect, and it is extremely misleading. For a start, it was based on people with severe depression necessitating hospital treatment. For a second, it was a misleading figure. The risk is time-dependent : someone who has recently had hospital treatment for depression has a relatively high risk of suicide, but this reduces over time. And people who have just had outpatient treatment (the majority of people with depression) have a much much lower risk.

Yes, if this pilot had a diagnosis of depression he should have been carefully monitored. But that is quite different from saying, as some people were, that anyone who has had a diagnosis of depression should be barred from flying. That would, in my view, be a dangerous policy.

Quote:
Now, maybe people here are confusing being a bit sad or going over a rough patch with Clinical Depression and that is a common mistake but they are not the same at all. I am talking about major, severe, clinical depression.

Moderate and mild depression are also clinical mental illnesses. And both are associated with increased suicide risk. All are potentially curable. And once a person is not depressed, their risk of committing suicide is much much lower.

Quoting AR385:

Quoting Lizzie (Reply 184):
and a blanket ban on anyone with a diagnosis of depression from flying a commercial aircraft would be a strong incentive to secrecy, as well as being ineffective.

Again, I disagree. Piloting is not a profession where you want someone diagnosed with Clinical Depression to be in the cockpit, unless special provisions are in place. Such as constant monitoring, periodic and constant evaluations, flying simple routes during non-stressful hrs.

I'm not quite sure why you are saying "I disagree" and then you state a position I do not hold. I completely agree that someone with a current diagnosis of depression should not be in the cockpit, and that with a history of depression should be carefully monitored and supported. But if a clinical diagnosis of depression resulted in a blanket lifetime ban on piloting an aircraft, then that is likely to increase the risk of people with untreated depression flying aircraft.

Quoting AR385:

The Captain of tha AF A340 that went off the runway at Toronto was under a similar regime by AF due to a "mental" situation and he was limited to flying only the "short" daytime transcons. CDG-ATL, CDG-ORD-, CDG-NYC were his normal routes. The mere fact that most depressed pilots are not going to crash their airplanes, while true, it´s no guarantee they won´t. As we´ve just seen.

And I am sorry if this is not politically correct.

It's not a question of what is "politically correct". It's a question of what is safe. And making an episode clinical depression, as some have suggested, enough to end a pilot's career would not IMO be safe. It would increase the risk, not reduce it.

vr-hkg · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:19 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
If two doctors agree that a pilot is unfit for work (for whatever reason), then there must be a compulsion for the employer to be advised - a pilot cannot be allowed to simply ignore the medical situation as Lubitz did.

The gaping hole in this theory is that if the unfit person knows that going to the doctor will result in the doctor tattling to his employer, they simply won't seek help in the first place.

If help is available to them without repercussion, there's a good chance the problem may be solved. Persuade them not to seek help, and you increase the risks, not decrease them.

hivue · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:20 pm

Quoting osiris30 (Reply 28):
Even if you can't fly anymore, maybe there is still a place for you within the organization.

If it turns out the FO was suffering significant clinical depression, he may have seen the handwriting on the wall regarding his flying career, which might simply have exacerbated the situation.

s5daw · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:22 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 33):
I guess some random person posted bunch of made up junk and the media took it for real, that's all.

Yeah... only that it was posted on AV herald.

Anyway, how about the new medical info? Not grounded due to depression. What if he had diabetes. That could change everything again... Could possibly fit even the slowed down talking at the end of the checklist and slow breathing.

Italianflyer · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:22 pm

Am I correct in assuming this was a turn and not a BCN overnight?
I am wondering if bad health news + lack of sleep + early report time led to fatigue and dysphoria that would be contributing factors to this tragedy.

speedbird707 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:28 pm

I have investigated many sudden deaths that have been "unforeseen". There are many common factors in a lot of them that seem to be a good overlay here as well. Suggested relationship crisis..many men have done silly rash things when faced with those circumstances...and, perhaps having a medical condition that would take away your livelihood...people have been known to commit foolish acts here too. The common thread is emotional distress that prevent one from seeing beyond the present, and because of that the choose to end their life.

After 30 years of investigations, some of these details may sway a bit, but ultimately I would bet money that something very close to the scenario above is what will have happened.

Lizzie · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:30 pm

Quoting rolfen (Reply 25):
Whatever the case, there is, in most cases, "warning signs" that one can dig up when looking at someone's past. People will say they should have heeded the warning, they should've known, but you know what they say, hindsight is 100/100.

We can be even more specific than that. If you have a someone who commits suicide, there is a very high probability that s/he will have exhibited "warning signs" beforehand. If have someone exhibiting "warning signs" there is a much lower probability that s/he will commit suicide.

Although some people here have claimed otherwise, suicide is notoriously hard to predict, even by skilled clinicians dealing with someone with a known depressive illness. I read a paper recently that said that something like three quarters of suicides had seen a clinician in the last three days. Had those clinicians been able to predict that a suicide attempt would take place, preventive action could have been taken. But you can't take protective action (essentially enforced treatement) whenever you have a hunch that someone might commit suicide, because there would be far too many false alarms.

This is why there is ongoing research into the predictors of suicide - not just who might commit suicide one day, which is pretty useless, but who is at risk of suicide within the next few hours.

highflier92660 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:32 pm

Beyond the continuing psychological debate, I'm still dumfounded that one of the most admired airlines of the world (Lufthansa) has new hires in the right seat of an A320 with 630 hours total time, and 100 hours in-type.

Performing climbs, stalls and touch-and-goes in a Beechcraft F33A Bonanza in Phoenix, Arizona followed by a few hours of turbine time in a Cessna CJ1 makes a pilot an eligible candidate for vaunted Lufthansa? Simply amazing. In the U.S. you'd need 1,500 hours to read checklists in the right seat of a regional turboprop.

I want CNN's Erin Burnett and her cadre of aviation "experts" (especially Richard Quest with his giant teeth and saliva flying) to investigate Lufthansa pilot training.

meristem · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting from previous thread:
[Reply from LIPH, comment 234 in Part 11]

As far as I know 90% of all accidents has been caused by fatal "human factors". This one makes no exception. Keep away any human from the cockpit or any mean of controlling the aircraft and the problem is solved.
----------------------------------------------------
"Human factors" is not the same as human error.

Human factors actually looks at all human cognitive and perceptual capacity and how those interplay with all other parts of a 'system'--from the software and hardware to physical and social environment. And accidents are chains of events that normally have little impact on their own, but happen in a way that causes unexpected results. So...removing humans from cockpit and controls actually involves a whole lot of other 'removals'.

Here's a small, not at all exhaustive list of humans you'll have to deal with to "keep away any human from the cockpit or any means of controlling the aircraft", from a human factors perspective:
--What will you do with the humans controlling the system that allows the craft to be automated?
--The humans that must manage air space?
--The humans who deal with airports?
--The humans that must refuel the plane or maintain it?
-- What about the pesky humans who design, tend, machine, assemble the planes?
--Or the peskier humans who created and programmed the AI needed for the tasks involved in flight and the non-normative decision making?

PhB95 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:34 pm

Don't know if it was posted before : AF/KLM group now also to implement "2 people in cockpit at all times" rule :

http://www.europe1.fr/faits-divers/l...-etre-deux-dans-le-cockpit-2412077

No details for now.

[Edited 2015-03-27 11:35:29]

quote : Selon une source interne contactée par Europe 1, Air France va rendre obligatoire la présence de deux pilotes dans le cockpit tout au long des vols de ses avions. Une décision qui intervient afin d'éviter qu'un tel drame - certes rarissime - ne se reproduise.

English : According to an internal source contacted by Europe1, AF will make the presence of 2 pilots in the cockpit mandatory for the full duration of its plane's flights. That decision was made to insure such an event, altough very rare, can happen again

Sorry if my translation is not perfect

[Edited 2015-03-27 11:43:33]

TheRedBaron · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:34 pm

If killing 150 innocent people, is not being mentally ill I don't know then what mentally ill means...

I still get chills of the poor pax and crew trying to open that door...

TRB

sunstar · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:35 pm

Isn't there a hard lock system on the door. So if the aircraft lost power the door could still be locked by a deadbolt style lock..So if the co pilot used the secondary lock the keypad or anything else wouldn't matter..?

hivue · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:41 pm

Quoting Highflier92660 (Reply 41):
I'm still dumfounded that one of the most admired airlines of the world (Lufthansa) has new hires in the right seat of an A320 with 630 hours total time, and 100 hours in-type.

Does LH have an ab initio program? If so, was this guy a graduate? I heard CNBC's pilot/expert say good things about the European ab initio model.

aviationaware · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:41 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 24):
Significant clinical depression for an airline pilot will be career ending. No way giving a $hit about employees will sugarcoat that.

There is no ground on which to assume a depression. He had a depression years ago but was considered healed by not only his psychologist but several other people (again encompassing psychologists) in a re-assessment.

I don't know why everyone assumes he had another depression. He had medical problems, but his doctor in charge has said that while he could not disclose details of his problems due to confidentiality, they were not of psychological nature.

Maybe we should just accept that he was an evil nut? I mean, we sure can dig for psychological issues until you find something, but you probably could also diagnose Hitler with some psychological problem. That does not exculpate him.

This boy killed not only 149 innocent people, he also ruined the lifework of thousands of people who have worked their asses off at Lufthansa over the past decades to achieve the immaculate safety reputation. That reputation is now stained.
I am not even speaking of the hundreds of millions of costs and lost revenue this will cause at LH.

There is no other word for that than evil.

FltAdmiralRitt · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:50 pm

Maybe the moderator shoudl think about locking this thread until the official report is released.

We know what happened
We know where the A/C is.
We know it is criminal matter.
Due to Possible lawsuits no more verified information will be released on the
personal life of the co-pilot.

I don't see even idle speculation being usefull here, and actually the amount of
postings are way down compared to a few days ago.

osiris30 · Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:52 pm

Quoting Lizzie (Reply 34):
that making depression trigger a lifetime ban on flying is going increase the risk of pilots with undiagnosed and untreated depression flying, not reduce it.

As will forced disclosure by doctors.

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