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JoeCanuck
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:58 pm

Quoting exfss (Reply 149):

Here's an old joke;

What's the difference between a pilot and God?

God doesn't think he's a pilot.

Pilots, by nature, must be confident, and from there, it's only one more step to becoming over confident. They are in charge of a lot of lives every time they get into the cockpit. They have to be right, every single time...no mistakes, ever...or people can die, including themselves.

Pilots go through hell to get to the mainline; not enough sleep, working far from home, not only crappy pay but they usually are seriously in debt, often doing some of the most dangerous flying...when they have the least experience.

They go through a lot to be a pilot...and that they feel special, isn't a surprise. Differentiating between confidence and arrogance can be very difficult at the best of times.

The clinically depressed have been covering up their conditions their entire lives...often, they can outwardly seem the most normal of all...normal enough to fool even mental health professionals. They know what the interviewers want to hear, and know that they only have so much time to spend on every pilot...they just give the expected answers.
What the...?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:04 pm

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 134):
The base problem is "human relations" based; and technical solutions have proven to be horrendous in their ability to solve human based problems. It is precisely because engineers and scientist tried to apply technical solutions to human based issues that the respect for engineers and scientist declined so much from 50-75 years ago.

I'm a physician and I also work in an environment where we can kill people with mistakes. There are both technical and human solutions to human problems.

Cross-checks in the OR (taken from the aviation industry) and instrument counts ensure that patients are not left with instruments left inside them. There is a specific way that you hand an an instrument across the operative field to ensure that it is not dropped. Those are human solutions to problems. But also, it is physically very difficult (I would say impossible, but it's been done) to connect an IV line to an air or oxygen port. You simply cannot fit a ventilator tube to the irrigation waste line. Things are color coded and alarms go off when things go outside designated parameters. (No, I'm not a surgeon but I've participated in surgical operations as part of my training).

So sometimes there are technical solutions to human problems. Sometimes there are human solutions to human problems. Having two people in the cockpit is a good solution and will help prevent these events. Having a multi-crew override to the cockpit lock-out is also a very good idea and will also help prevent these events. The two are not mutually exclusive.
-Doc Lightning-

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namezero111111
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:29 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 150):
First, the important thing. There are so many ways in which pilot can cause structural problems, unrecoverable flight envelope, quick attitude changes near the ground, etc that I doubt the door designs themselves will have an effect. If you can't sit idle pondering what you have done for 8 minutes or 7 hours... you will perhaps crash the plane on take-off. Or hit the other pilot in the head when he is not suspecting it. And many other things.

     

This accident started long before the caption got locked out of the cockpit. While I think the 2 people in the cockpit at all times is a sound idea for reasons other than suicide, I'd be very surprised to see door design changes resulting from this accident given what we know now. This accident chain is more easily and effectively broken beforehand.

Changes to medical certification / psych tests are more likely - possibly anonymous counseling programs for depression. (not sure if LH or other airlines have that for depression; they normally for for alcoholism).

Another possibility would be that a psych test is mandatory should a crew member be "reported" by other crew members for erratic behavior, say, 3 times in a year. This lends itself to abuse though, and hence may be a bad idea to begin with.
 
Backseater
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:38 pm

The cockpit door lock system works as it does today because that is what was first mandated by the FAA soon after 9/11. The stated requirements included:

Quote:
Requires strengthening of cockpit doors. The doors will be designed to resist intrusion by a person who attempts to enter using physical force. This includes the door, its means of attachment to the surrounding structure, and the attachment structure on the bulkhead itself.

Requires cockpit doors to remain locked. The door will be designed to prevent passengers from opening it without the pilot's permission. An internal locking device will be designed so that it can only be unlocked from inside the cockpit.

Prohibits possession of keys to the cockpit by crew members not assigned to the cockpit.

Clearly the FAA did not entertain protection against a rogue pilot. The above requirements preclude the obvious technical solution of allowing a collective secret vote by enough members of the crew to override the “lock from inside the cockpit” in essence creating a higher authority onboard with precedence over the pilot.

What Tomlee has proposed is one of several straight forward solutions to a problem that was neither mandated nor allowed to be solved before. I say straightforward solution because while I was watching live the press conference of the Prosecutor of Marseille and before even reading Tomlee’s first post, I had already formulated a straightforward solution whereby crew members would vote with their permanently assigned secret PINs for (or against with a bogus entry) overriding the lock (which by the way gives terrorists an incentive not to start decimating the FAs).

No doubt many more engineers must have come up with similar approaches without flooding this thread. I have also no doubt that aircraft manufacturers can develop a strong technical solution to this new problem, once they are mandated to do so.

I am convinced that such a collective override system will be developed soon and should be fielded.

Of course, that will unfortunately not protect against all scenarios that a determined rogue pilot might conjure to achieve the unthinkable.
 
holzmann
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:39 pm

Quoting ual777 (Reply 12):
I've been lurking on this thread waiting to chime in, so here it goes. He never should have been hired in the first place. The fact that he completely drops out of training for a year due to depression is a HUGE red flag and frankly I think it's bordering on gross negligence for Lufthansa to have even hired this looney toon.

Been thinking the same. The extended break during training should have been a red flag.

Saddens me because I have a good Dutch friend who spent lots of good money on training, even in Phoenix AZ, learned a good bit of German, etc...just to apply for a Lufthansa job. If it's proven that Lufthansa said "nein" to a bunch of qualified EU citizens (but who were not Germans) and then hired Andreas Lubitz, a German, instead...then it should indeed hit the fan for them in more ways than one.
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:48 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 151):
Here's an old joke;

What's the difference between a pilot and God?

God doesn't think he's a pilot.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
I'm a physician and I also work in an environment where we can kill people with mistakes. There are both technical and human solutions to human problems.

I knew that Joke but with: God doesn't think he's a Doctor....

In one thing the murderer was right..He will change a lot of things.

TRB
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holzmann
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:02 pm

Multiple (tabloid-like) sources reporting that Lubitz' girlfriend, Kathrin Goldbach, is pregnant with his child.

That kind of announcement could do all sorts of things to a guy...
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exfss
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:06 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 157):
That kind of announcement could do all sorts of things to a guy...

Well then should we sterilize all pilot just in case?
No question is stupid.Only answers can be.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:16 pm

Appears 4U hasn't yet changed the 9525 flight number, as airlines usually do after a major accident, often within the first 2 or 3 days. I expect some people may be reluctant to book that flight now.

MH370 and MH17 were changed very quickly. I remember Swissair changed SR111 (the MD-11 that crashed near YHZ in 1998) to SR115 about 2 days later.
 
awthompson
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:20 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 155):
Saddens me because I have a good Dutch friend who spent lots of good money on training, even in Phoenix AZ, learned a good bit of German, etc...just to apply for a Lufthansa job. If it's proven that Lufthansa said "nein" to a bunch of qualified EU citizens (but who were not Germans) and then hired Andreas Lubitz, a German, instead...then it should indeed hit the fan for them in more ways than one.

That's sad, but again its the way of the world. No human system is perfectly fair, and that includes recruitment, justice, government etc. systems as we all know.
 
A332DTW
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:25 pm

I have seen many people on here and on the news media continue to mention the break in flight training, and that this should have been a major red flag. Based on my personal experience going through a vigorous training program at a Part 141 flight school, this is not too uncommon. Flight students get burned out and a hiatus is usually recommended when a student struggles on their training. Granted breaks are usually no onger than a couple months, but the general premise that breaks in trainig should raise red flags I think is overblown.
 
DDR
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:27 pm

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 145):

Sorry, Jim Jupiter, it was on the Mirrors website. They seem to have a lot of sensationalists type stuff on there. Also says that the co-pilot "scoured the Internet for gay porn."

Now I wish I hadn't posted because this looks to be a tabloid site. Is that true?

[Edited 2015-03-29 14:29:09]
 
tomlee
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:11 pm

Quoting zanl188 (Reply 133):
Denying a pilot planning suicide by plane those extra minutes accomplishes what exactly? He/she will simply crash the plane in another manner which precludes any action by other crew members

To preclude any malicious actor from having any more than a minute or two to act is a pretty good improvement over not doing anything to stop them short of shooting the plane out of the sky if detected by the ground with all ending up dead. Every minute counts planes can hit a ton of targets within a few minutes of their cruising position let alone the hours they could have if not detected in time.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 134):
The base problem is "human relations" based; and technical solutions have proven to be horrendous in their ability to solve human based problems. It is precisely because engineers and scientist tried to apply technical solutions to human based issues that the respect for engineers and scientist declined so much from 50-75 years ago.

One of the defining factor of human life is the mediation and use of technology throughout our lives. Planes themselves are a perfect example of the fusion of technical expertise and human interaction to connect the planet together. Could you imagine human society without any technology because I don't think it is possible to separate human factors from technologies it is bi-directional.

Doors are also part of the "human relation" and were invented ages ago to control access and are too a system of technologies and inventions refined over the ages. We close a door when we want privacy, security, isolation, protection. And we open a door when we want to welcome people and so on. People who abuse a secure door to lock out others to perform nefarious actions to the severe detriment of those people don't deserve a use case.

The base problem is not just a human relations problem there is 0% chance you can both predict and stop someone from snapping. Improving screening processes and addressing pilot stress factors is all good but doesn't stop someone from snapping one day due to a completely random reason which we cannot control for because we are all human. (People are not computers)

The assumption behind the combined door override is that we can trust people as a group which accepts the possibility for bad actors and mitigates attacks from within. In essence it is still very much a human solution as you can't just have a pile of keycards thinking for themselves.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 134):
In reality, the 2nd person in the cockpit - regardless of qualifications - is a human based solution; which is the right approach in how you solve human based problems.

It gives the person with a human based problem another human to talk to. That in itself forces a change. As for the concept that the other person needs to be able to win a fight. Extremely unlikely there would be a fight. If it even looked like a fight might develop all the 2nd person has to do is open the door and if needed scream for help. I assure you that there are people in the front of the aircraft who would jump to help.

The two people in the cockpit solution is a procedural solution not a pure hearted noble "human solution" anything that involves a human would qualify door override included since it involves the trust in the entire human crew after all.

It is a flawed solution because it knows that one of the two could be the attacker but just hopes no one person would attack the other but if a person is willing to kill 149 people at minimum knocking out a person is not unheard of. The only cases it will stop are borderline pure moment of opportunity cases, the moment any degree of planning occurs then it breaks instantly. In the GW case if the captain did not goto the wash room as the FO suggested it would have been very likely the FO would have "gone to the wash room" and then upon return knock the Captain out cold, under 2 person rule the second person would have already left and the door closed and automatically locked. From what was stated this crash was premeditated, how much planning he did in his head or somewhere yet uncovered is not known.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 134):
In the end there are no perfect solutions for every problem. Humans are ultimately fallible and so are technical systems and parts. But, I suspect that just having a 2nd person in the cockpit eliminates at least 80% of these kinds of crashes; without creating any other risks (and your technical solution has other risks that have to be accounted for).

By the way; I am an engineer who works in the nuclear power industry. The biggest problem in nuclear power is human based and not technical. Just like aircraft there have been many decades of technical improvements. Most of the biggest events in the last 40 years have been traced to human factors (even if the decisions were made decades earlier not to design for a known on average 90 year event); and the biggest gains in event response have come from dealing with and addressing human factors.

Throwing random percentages when it is obvious any malicious actor who pre-planned the act would just ignore random number and break the 2 person solution in any case. If you want random numbers the 2 person solution at best would stop 1% of attacks which have zero planning and occur as a moment of insanity of which the second person could snap the other out of it.

You are open to say what these "risks" are for the updated door logic. I openly say a 2 person system doesn't solve the element of surprise issue nor the pre-meditated act issue it at best helps people feel better but doesn't stop the problem from happening again.

No the biggest problem in nuclear power is that you can just make a reactor that cools itself without any intervention. (Passive safety) Human factors are part of the design process a human error can be amplified or enabled through a mistake in design sometimes even just the user interface. (In this case the door)

Unfortunately for humans and planes you can't just passively let it figure out what to do as it isn't as simple as perfectly random nuclear decay generating heat which needs to go somewhere.

The human brain is many orders of magnitude more complex than any nuclear reactor. (A nuclear reactor is just a giant kettle albeit much more complex than the one in your kitchen) And a plane can't just sit underground as that wouldn't be very useful. (While a nuclear reactor could just sit around generating heat, heck you can have natural nuclear reactors no human no technology even needed that is how simple it really is)

Quoting morsecoder (Reply 146):
The IP addresses of websites you visit are usually stored in your computer log files and router memory as well. Sometimes on a rolling basis (i.e. some number of most recent sites) or sometimes until the logs are deleted. Your ISP will also have a record of the connections made to your IP address. In the U.S., I think the standard is to keep that data for 90 days. I don't know how it works in Germany, but here, if the police have a search warrant from a judge, it's all accessible.

More important details would be held by the big data folks Google, Facebook, Bing, ... will store all the website you visit, the search terms you enter, the referral headers, where you accessed it from, your account information, targeted ad profile, for technically forever (after a while it gets mixed into the great big data pool for the automatic algorithms to munch on) Once you have his ISP account info and get a court order every company he touched is just going to turn over the entire data trove of information they have. (Many websites, ads, social media links, comment middleware also keep track of your website activities down to the click/scroll/dwell level to estimate gaze and focus on parts of the webpage) This information is much more fine grained than just what sites he visited or frequented. You can build a persons online persona(s) just by looking at those records. (AOL learned that the hard way when they released "anonymized search inputs" which was quickly broken when people figured out the identities of a few in the dataset)

An online advertising company has a much better picture of your life than say any government or ISP because they are paid to create targeted ads specific to your tastes/searches/habits which form an automatically generated advertising profile.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 148):
In Germany, the provider can only store data that is necessary for technical troubleshooting, and to calculate and send out the bills.

Google, doubleclick (the ad company google bought long ago), and websites mostly operate outside of Germany so they still collect information like crazy. His IP history is probably already with them as well (even if he connected with from a public hotspot)

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 150):
First, the important thing. There are so many ways in which pilot can cause structural problems, unrecoverable flight envelope, quick attitude changes near the ground, etc that I doubt the door designs themselves will have an effect. If you can't sit idle pondering what you have done for 8 minutes or 7 hours... you will perhaps crash the plane on take-off. Or hit the other pilot in the head when he is not suspecting it. And many other things.

We can improve the system, but we are close to as good as it is going to get. Without an ability to see inside people's heads... you will be relying on the skills and professionalism of the pilots and the organisation that hired them. Just the way it is.

P.S. I agree that specific new door designs deserve their own thread.

I don't think I've been posting specifics in reply to any of these calls for the specifics to go elsewhere. The design has been fleshed out and now it is just relevant replies to people saying they don't think anything could be done.

First the important thing is this GW case did not end with an in flight breakup nor did it happen at takeoff or landing. The door concept is designed to make malicious acts harder and give them no time to act other than instantly. This puts a big dampener on planned attacks with specific timings and targets. I would rather the only plan be to instantly crash on near the ground which is at least remotely survivable than allow for hours and minutes of flight towards some other target of choice with means certain death with long foreknowledge of all on board of impending doom and total helplessness.

Allowing for the possibility of specific timings and targets without any risk of the plane being retaken is allowing for another 9/11 at worst and at best having military pilots shoot a passenger jet out of the sky. (Not something I find particularly ideal or even remotely close to good enough)

We don't need to see into people's individual heads is the entire point there isn't any realistic way to do so and it is totally invasive even if you could do it. We rely on the skills and professionalism of the crew and company as a group just the way it always was.

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 153):
This accident started long before the caption got locked out of the cockpit. While I think the 2 people in the cockpit at all times is a sound idea for reasons other than suicide, I'd be very surprised to see door design changes resulting from this accident given what we know now. This accident chain is more easily and effectively broken beforehand.

Changes to medical certification / psych tests are more likely - possibly anonymous counseling programs for depression. (not sure if LH or other airlines have that for depression; they normally for for alcoholism).

Another possibility would be that a psych test is mandatory should a crew member be "reported" by other crew members for erratic behavior, say, 3 times in a year. This lends itself to abuse though, and hence may be a bad idea to begin with.

Enhanced medical testing won't fix anything, people will just hide symptoms and lie in an interview or eval you just can't force people to tell the truth nor can you detect lies with certainty. This accident started long ago and was enabled, amplified by the door not opening for the captain or cabin crew.

Why would anyone go to an anonymous counselling program with the simulations desire for increased doctor reporting. Regular clinic visits are already confidential and anonymous counselling in that way already in place.

Psych tests cannot detect someone who is planning an attack and wishes to hid those plans, they can't even tell if a person is lying about whatever they are saying. And a three strikes your out system means instant abuse as you recognize yourself. (Also no other pilots or co-workers actually thought he was unstable and he had no reported problem from the existing reporting structure that allows for anonymous reports on other members of the company, hence this safety net already failed because people are not so simple)

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 154):
solution whereby crew members would vote with their permanently assigned secret PINs for (or against with a bogus entry) overriding the lock

I would strongly advise against any static pin code which crew know in their memory as there would be cases where the pin code leaks or the database you use to load the pin pad with the unique pins gets compromised and updating the per crew code list would create logistical nightmares. The existing door lock-down covers the pass code database leak by allowing for forced lock-down so in the crew override case you have to make sure the pins can't leak out. My concept covers pin protection with an alternate but as effective means.

Quoting A332DTW (Reply 161):
Granted breaks are usually no onger than a couple months, but the general premise that breaks in trainig should raise red flags I think is overblown.

It is beyond overblown it is probably dangerous to even suggest. Saying any deviation from the norm is a red flag is not going to help at all. Are we going to have pilots refuse to take a break and just double down on their training rather than risk being perceived as "unstable" (stress, burnout risk would sky-rocket). Even having a bad dream or not being happy with your company or work should not cause people to report them as unfit then they will just stop talking to people all together and bottle it all up (we all know where that is going to end). What this case shows is that detecting psychological instabilities is inherently a very difficult task in which the measurement/process itself (the testing, rules, regulations) can alter the outcome in any number of ways some of which may be good, neutral, bad. There is no easy fix on the mental health side of things because humans don't work like a two state system of off/on, locked/unlocked, sane/insane.

[Edited 2015-03-29 15:37:14]
 
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cjg225
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:41 pm

Quoting capri (Reply 121):
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/...ript/ar-AAa9YJu?ocid=mailsignoutmd


Some chilling transcript was revealed

Jesus...

That is unbelievable... That a co-pilot for a major airline could do something like that seemingly so nonchalantly... "Disturbing" is not even near enough.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:13 pm

I enjoyed reading that...thanks.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 163):
From what was stated this crash was premeditated, how much planning he did in his head or somewhere yet uncovered is not known.

One thing having another person in the cockpit does, is even in the case of premeditation, is that extra variable will make the planning more complex, perhaps complex enough to make the act seem too difficult to accomplish, and is abandoned.

So the second person in the cockpit policy may go beyond just being able to prevent an emergency by reacting to it, but merely by existing, prevent an emergency.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 163):
It is a flawed solution because it knows that one of the two could be the attacker but just hopes no one person would attack the other but if a person is willing to kill 149 people at minimum knocking out a person is not unheard of.

To expand on this; what having another person in the cockpit does, is to decrease the probability that one person will be able to take over the cockpit, not eliminate the possibility.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 163):
Saying any deviation from the norm is a red flag is not going to help at all.

Deviation from the norm might only not be a red flag, one might argue that it is normal. We humans are erratic creatures.
What the...?
 
tomlee
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:08 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 165):

The best number of extra variables is all/most of the crew in this manner no amount of pre-meditated planning or surprise attacking a person would work as it would be difficult to fight a 1v5 compared to a 1v1. With 3 people at all times your theory works but then one person is going to be sitting/standing around in the cockpit for the sole purpose of fighting their co-workers. (This would create a very awkward culture of fear to say the least and look very strange) Allowing the door to be opened allows the crew to act without looming over their co-workers in the fear they will go nuts suddenly.

The amount of planning required to overcome an entire crew as one person would greatly minimize the number of possibilities and make it look unpalatable enough to prevent future incidents. Knocking out one person by surprising them is not remotely difficult. The decrease in probability only works if the person is not dead set on carrying out their act because if they are then having just one person doesn't do a very good job at reducing the risk. (For a person to even plan such a thing is probably going to be quite the mental nosedive which would probably make recovery very difficult, it can easily become a positive feedback cycle all inside their head)

If say you had the two person system and the second person gets knocked out and the remaining one locks out the rest of the crew if they could still open the door then the person could not fend off that many people and still fly the plane as desired. At worst the plane crashes because no one is flying it and the fight results in an unrecoverable state but the alternative of allowing someone to just keep the door locked and fly the plane into whatever they want is extremely undesirable.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 165):
Deviation from the norm might only not be a red flag, one might argue that it is normal. We humans are erratic creatures.

This is one of the biggest problems with psychology people all act in so many wildly different ways it is almost certain if anyone was carefully studied would come up with a whole laundry list of noticeable and potential psychological issues and quirks. (Assuming they are not lying of course which could lead to a false list of conditions and conclusions depending on the lies) I believe it is because people have something called a personality which tends to vary a lot. Almost all tests rely on trusting the subject is answering the questions truthfully. At best you can get a rough feel for what a person mental state is but you can't say unless they admit it openly that they are going to commit a serious crime for certain.

The reason people don't do constant psychological tests isn't because it is too expensive it is just because they don't really mean much and only those who overtly fail will get caught and internal reports from co-workers would easily catch such people as they don't hid anything and openly act in a reportable manner.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 114):
Quoting scbriml (Reply 112):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 97):
Can we please have you create a new thread on this? I don't have to read it if I don't want to, but I have no choice here while I wade through looking for details of the Germanwings tragedy.

x 2

x 3

x 4

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 135):
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 125):
If your point is that you want to have a good technical discussion on the aspects of tomlee's ideas, I would support that.

If you are trying to shut down that part of this discussion - then I disagree.

I really want such a thing have discussed in a separate thread,

Agreed that tomlee's idea should have its own thread, instead of being discussed in multiple threads such as this one, MH370, and who knows where else...
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DDR
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:54 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 167):

I agree.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:33 am

It was just announced in Australia that it will become mandatory for 2 people to always be in the cockpit as a result of this tragedy...
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rj777
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:37 am

Starting to sound like the whole industry is going to be mandating it.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:36 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 166):
Agreed that tomlee's idea should have its own thread, instead of being discussed in multiple threads such as this one, MH370, and who knows where else...

I no longer am posting about the technical aspects of the proposed change to the door locking logic as requested. Since both MH370 and GW share a common thread of pilot hijack with door lockout, discussing in either topic is relevant.

Why do you think the door isn't involved in the GW case?

This is no longer about the proposed change but just that you do not find the existing door at fault in any way even with the captain and crew failing to breach the door with tools and minutes to spare.
 
smolt
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:44 am

This accident reminds me of two accidents occured here in Japan.

1. JAL350 Crash 1982.Feb.9 JA8061 DC-8 61 24 killed

The captain applied thrust reverser very short before touch down to RJTT, Tokyo International Airport (Haneda).
DC-8 crashed to sea surface. The fore part of the fuselage folded and broken from which victims were thrown out
to the cold water. The captain had been caught by Schizophrenia but it had slipped through health inspection
chances. Before the accident his fellow crews had often encountered his abnormal behavior up on duty
(ie, looking half of the conscious lost and took bank as deep as to 50 degrees) but no one took positive action for fear of the captain be grounded and lose job.


2. ANA61 Hi Jack 1999 July 23 JA8966 B747-400D

The aircraft was hi jacked and co-pilot was forced to out of the cockpit. The hijacker locked the cockpit door then
killed the captain and took control of the aircraft. Very close to the crash onto the ground but co-pilot and other crew
on board dead-head succeeded in breaking out the cockpit door and into the cockpit. While fighting against the hijacker
dead-head pilot took the control and landed the aircraft to Haneda airport safely.
Had the cockpit door been so rigid that no one in the cabin can break, like those in today, the aircraft must have hit
the ground, killed 500 passengers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Nippon_Airways_Flight_61

[Edited 2015-03-29 19:53:41]
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:55 am

Quoting smolt (Reply 171):
2. ANA61 Hi Jack 1999 July 23 JA8966 B747-400D

The crew can fight back with success. If any bad actor ever gains control of the cockpit side today there is no fighting back. (And GW proves it can happen)

Quoting smolt (Reply 171):
1. JAL350 Crash 1982.Feb.9 JA8061 DC-8 61 24 killed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_350

This is one of those cases which the crew only has seconds to act and did end with the plane crashing even with them regaining control but people survived because it was so close to the ground and so slow already. (also shows why you need 2 people to effectively fight 1 assailant, 3 total)(150 survived or 86% of the people lived vs. GW high speed into the mountain with 0%)
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:57 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 170):
Why do you think the door isn't involved in the GW case?

Let me chime in...

The door is an enabler for this tragedy, but its not the cause, the cause is an insane, sick, and unfit to fly individual. Maybe he would do it next flight, maybe he would kill the captain, maybe he would destroy the controls, who knows? He was fixed on killing himself and another 149 innocent individuals, the doors gave him the chance to make his plans work, but he wanted to die.

Lets say the captain for some weird event could open the door before the crash, do you honestly believe the Copilot would have met him with a smile and asking for forgiveness?....

The best action to take is to make a more proactive approach to stress and mental illness on crews and Pilots...

TRB
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:57 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 170):
but just that you do not find the existing door at fault in any way even with the captain and crew failing to breach the door with tools and minutes to spare.

I will admit that this event would make a good Marx Brothers sketch if it weren't such a profound and utter tragedy. However, we should bear in mind that the door's task was to protect the airplane from the bad guys. Protecting the airplane from the good guys was nowhere in its job description -- nor should it have been.
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:20 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 173):
The best action to take is to make a more proactive approach to stress and mental illness on crews and Pilots...

except that in certain countries like Germany it will never work. Where privacy laws are so tight that doctors can refuse to inform their patients of their diagnosis or divulge the medical records to anyone without a court order. Good luck, it will never work. You're left to collect the pieces that fall out of the sky.
Look at Google Street Views, it was initially illegal in Germany, Switzerland and Austria because someone on the internet could use it to spy on your front lawn and porch.

And then think about that door. A thief would buy a copy of the safe he wants to crack. Set it up in his workshop and go at it until he finds the right tool/methods to crack open the safe. Theoretically he could do the same with this cockpit door. Go to some airport maybe in a desert like Mojave where they store old airplanes, brake into one of them cut out the entire door and door frame, shlep it to his hideout and workout how to defeat it. Nothing is safe.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:29 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 175):
except that in certain countries like Germany it will never work.

Thanks I did not know that, but I think that maybe MAYBE that will change or some countries will value more the privacy than their security...

TRB
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777Jet
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:50 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 170):
Why do you think the door isn't involved in the GW case?

I don't think that. Moreover, I never said that...

Clearly the Captain not being able to re-enter the cockpit makes the door an issue with GW.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 170):
Since both MH370 and GW share a common thread of pilot hijack with door lockout, discussing in either topic is relevant.

The topic is relevant to both incidents among others, but starting a new thread on the cockpit door issue / your ideas would have been better given the "technical aspects" / detail you wanted to discuss.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 170):
I no longer am posting about the technical aspects of the proposed change to the door locking logic as requested.

Your idea is worthy of a thread for itself, in which you can discuss your ideas in as great a depth as you like without taking over these threads.
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:04 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 173):
The door is an enabler for this tragedy

If you agree it is an enabler then we really should disable that enabler in a proper manner of course.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 173):
Lets say the captain for some weird event could open the door before the crash, do you honestly believe the Copilot would have met him with a smile and asking for forgiveness?....

Assuming they broke the door open quickly (as they would have been able to with an override) the captain as described in the audio transcript would likely have killed or otherwise massively injured the FO with the same metal object he was using on the door. And other cabin crew would have removed his body and restrained him for good measure.

Given the gradual descent they would have had plenty of time to correct the approach or at least crash in a more survivable manner.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 173):
The best action to take is to make a more proactive approach to stress and mental illness on crews and Pilots...

It is just one of the actions to take managing stress and mental illness is a general problem not isolated to one line of work. The problem is that even though it is a massive problem in general there is no way stress management and mental health controls will magically make this problem go away. People will still slip mental health screening isn't like a normal medical test it requires the doctor trust the patient for the results to make any sense. In other areas of medicine even if the patient is a pathological liar you can still just rely on hard science testing to figure out what is going on.

Quoting hivue (Reply 174):
However, we should bear in mind that the door's task was to protect the airplane from the bad guys. Protecting the airplane from the good guys was nowhere in its job description -- nor should it have been.

Anyone who crashes a plane with everyone on board into the side of a mountain is not a "good guy" in any way shape or form.

The door's task was to protect the cockpit from unauthorized access and allow authorized access and it failed in this simple task of being a door.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 175):
Theoretically he could do the same with this cockpit door. Go to some airport maybe in a desert like Mojave where they store old airplanes, brake into one of them cut out the entire door and door frame, shlep it to his hideout and workout how to defeat it. Nothing is safe.

Yes technically speaking the "secure" cockpit door is not 100% secure against any form of attack. Compared to secured doors on the ground it is flimsy paper tissue.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 176):
Thanks I did not know that, but I think that maybe MAYBE that will change or some countries will value more the privacy than their security...

I think you mean you hope countries will value their security more than privacy, correct? (I think some balance needs to be struck otherwise you risk losing everything society stands for)

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 177):

I respect your opinion but do not agree with it.

[Edited 2015-03-29 21:15:26]
 
Backseater
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:32 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 175):
except that in certain countries like Germany it will never work. Where privacy laws are so tight that doctors can refuse to inform their patients of their diagnosis or divulge the medical records to anyone without a court order. Good luck, it will never work. You're left to collect the pieces that fall out of the sky.

If access to needed information is blocked by medical privacy laws and a possible cover up by the patient himself, maybe it is worth looking at other access routes towards identifying risks.

In the US, private sector employees who need a security clearance to work in critical positions regulated by the Government are subjected to background checks every so many years. In the case of a Single Scope Background Investigation for instance, trained investigators interview neighbors, employers, educators, spouses, cohabitants, references, .... Lubitz's lady friend observed many events that raised a red flag and caused her to make some personnel decisions regarding her relationship. Had she had an opportunity to share her observations with a trained investigator, the outcome might have been different.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:01 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 179):
Lubitz's lady friend observed many events that raised a red flag and caused her to make some personnel decisions regarding her relationship. Had she had an opportunity to share her observations with a trained investigator, the outcome might have been different.

I'm not sure if someone has nightmares about plane crashes means a red flag, at best it is a yellow green flag that the person thinks a lot about work.

You play too much Tetris you'll have nightmare scenarios of that doesn't mean your going to go off the wall the next day.

Same for everything else it is mostly just in hindsight it appears to be so profoundly obvious. Do we have a waiting time and retesting period when any pilot's has any sign of a relationship problem, seems odd maybe it would work still not certain how you can even get that info if privacy protection laws exist.

The red flag I would say that was valid albeit hard to pick out was the opportunity the pilot had to detect very unusual responses. If someone shifts from normal conversation and gets as the news puts it laconic when you say something to the effect of prepare for the landing and you get responses like "hopefully" and "we'll see". ( http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03...germanwings-jet-recording-reveals/ )

However it is understandable that the captain was not able to detect it as he likely never expected it to be possible.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:15 am

Hindsight is something nice to have. I think we need to accept that one can not look into the head of a person. The rest is to make sure that a suicidal person can not lock himself in inside the cockpit.
 
OMP777X
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:45 am

FFS. Reuters is now reporting that the vision problem Lubitz was having was due to him having a detached retina.

http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINKBN0MP0GB20150329?irpc=932

I know from talking to a guy within my union who was on disability for having detached retinas that it took him seven years and some surgery to recover from it. That would've severely derailed Lubitz on his track to becoming a captain of an A380 on long haul routes like he had dreamed of.

I saw another worthwhile article that cautioned against using the term "depression" to describe the first officers' condition. Depression doesn't usually result in a person committing mass murder.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health...e_is_linked_to_depression_but.html

These articles and others lead me to believe that he had potentially severe vision issues, and some sort of a personality disorder that may have been undiagnosed before this tragedy.

Best,

OMP777X
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Backseater
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:50 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 162):
I would strongly advise against any static pin code ...

When there is a thread devoted to proposing changes to the secure door requirements, I'll explain how that can actually work.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 180):
I'm not sure if someone has nightmares about plane crashes means a red flag ...

It was not just about nightmares. If I recall, he made megalomaniac statements such as "Some day everybody is going to know my name" and "I am going to change the system". Nothing by itself is a red flag. It is the convergence of many indicators during background investigations, personal subject interview and other intrusive tests that may call for more scrutiny before clearing the subject as worthy of the Public Trust.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:02 am

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 182):
FFS. Reuters is now reporting that the vision problem Lubitz was having was due to him having a detached retina.

That's a career-killer for a pilot, AFAIK. That's the information I've been waiting to hear.

Detached retinas in young people are very rare, but I remember a 22yo college classmate of mine having one.
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:14 am

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 182):
the vision problem Lubitz was having was due to him having a detached retina.

As it happens I've had one of those, thankfully only in one eye. Once you've got one, the surgeons can only practise 'damage limitation' - basically 'stabilising' the retina by putting a band round the eye so that the retina stays in place. But that entails some 'cost' in that the affected eyeball ends up a bit 'longer,' thus causing it to be a bit short-sighted; and you also lose some 'field of vision' in the affected eye.

No problem for me - just gave me an excuse for playing even worse cricket than usual! But my guess is that one short-sighted (and slightly distorted) eye might well end the flying career of a commercial airline pilot? Perhaps that's what happened, the guy was in despair?
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:20 am

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 182):

About the depression, that's what I said. Either it's a part of a broader diagnosis or a misdiagnosis. But his actions were psychotic or psychopathic, not depressive. He he were suffering from depression he would have hoped up in his apartment following all this news. If anything, he would have researched stealing a plane and crashing it. But researching and planning a mass murder is not the action of a depressive and it further stigmatizes those suffering depression to be lumped in with this guy.
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:38 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 183):
"Some day everybody is going to know my name" and "I am going to change the system"
Nothing by itself is a red flag. It is the convergence of many indicators during background investigations, personal subject interview and other intrusive tests that may call for more scrutiny before clearing the subject as worthy of the Public Trust.

Those are extremely vague statements. You could be talking about Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, An Athlete, An Aid worker, A doctor, A pilot, A factory worker, anyone it could mean anything without knowing exactly what he meant with hindsight. What exactly is a "intrusive test" entail is it going to involve enhanced interrogation techniques because the person could still just lie even with that or actually believe what they are telling you is true even when it is a lie.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 183):
When there is a thread devoted to proposing changes to the secure door requirements, I'll explain how that can actually work.

When I've collected the bits together I'll link it in.

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 182):
FFS. Reuters is now reporting that the vision problem Lubitz was having was due to him having a detached retina.
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 185):
As it happens I've had one of those, thankfully only in one eye. Once you've got one, the surgeons can only practise 'damage limitation' - basically 'stabilising' the retina by putting a band round the eye so that the retina stays in place.

It all hinges on how quickly the surgery is performed it can be if he didn't notice in time however the damage can be extensive and permanent. If it was the macula (the high resolution bit) that is the worst place for your retina to detach and has poorer outcomes in general due to its importance. There are many options for treatment the band just squeezes the eye to close the gap that formed while with laser treatment it burns a small hole in your retina to stop it from detaching any further.

I bet some media groups are working real hard get at his medical info rules or not. From the article it doesn't sound like they are sure that he actually physically had problems or just thought he had problems (psychosomatic) and if the visits were treatments or diagnostic in nature.

[Edited 2015-03-29 23:53:41]
 
AR385
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:59 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 173):
The best action to take is to make a more proactive approach to stress and mental illness on crews and Pilots...

I agree with you. However, in this particular case, this individual seems so far one gone, taking so many medications, they are now talking about anti-psychotics, anti-depressants plus sleeping pills, all prescribed, that probably his issues would not have been detected with a normal screening. Even an agressive one, in the context of a labor environment.

Seems to me only the most stringent battery of tests, given to individuals with known, serious psychiatric disorders would have detected the serious issue this person had.
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:05 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 187):
Those are extremely vague statements.

Well if you know of any pilot who bragged that some day everybody is going to know his name, please let me know what airline he flies for. I'll definitely try to stay clear of any of his routes!
 
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:10 am

Quoting smolt (Reply 171):
This accident

I think, in this specific case, we should stop calling it an "accident". This was clearly a deliberate act.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 175):
except that in certain countries like Germany it will never work. Where privacy laws are so tight that doctors can refuse to inform their patients of their diagnosis or divulge the medical records to anyone without a court order. Good luck, it will never work. You're left to collect the pieces that fall out of the sky.

Laws can be changed and even repealed.

Now, I'm not proposing to throw away all privacy in the slightest, but maybe certain professions need to have less restrictions around them. There should be an automatic process whereby the authorities are notified automatically if a pilot, for example, becomes unfit for work for whatever reason. The decision whether to fly or not, when certified as unfit by a doctor, should not be the pilot's.
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mika
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:12 am

I see references to the CVR transcript from BILD; has the transcript been officially released?
 
JimJupiter
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:27 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 161):

Tahnks. It was a bit suspicious that even Bild did not have those stories on their website. They certainly wouldn't want to miss this stuff...  
Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 175):
except that in certain countries like Germany it will never work. Where privacy laws are so tight

Privacy laws aren't sooo tight (any more). But if 99.9 % security would mean 100 % surveillance, most people here would decline. And I can understand that very well.
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OMP777X
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:45 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 185):
As it happens I've had one of those, thankfully only in one eye. Once you've got one, the surgeons can only practise 'damage limitation' - basically 'stabilising' the retina by putting a band round the eye so that the retina stays in place. But that entails some 'cost' in that the affected eyeball ends up a bit 'longer,' thus causing it to be a bit short-sighted; and you also lose some 'field of vision' in the affected eye.

No problem for me - just gave me an excuse for playing even worse cricket than usual! But my guess is that one short-sighted (and slightly distorted) eye might well end the flying career of a commercial airline pilot? Perhaps that's what happened, the guy was in despair?

I'd say so. That coupled with the report of his ex-girlfriend being pregnant with his child, and possibly him being on disability for months if not years to come in conjunction with being mentally ill? Like I said, the guy I knew of was out for seven years before having his retina fixed and becoming licensed as a journeyman wireman.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world...-become-a-father-reports-1.2158497

I won't even touch the accusations of him possibly being homosexual... for someone mentally disturbed enough to put a plane load of people into the side of a mountain, a detached retina, mental instability, a potentially failed dream career, along with a failed potential marraige and a child on the way could put a man of his psyche in a place where he'd be on the verge of committing mass murder. This story only becomes more tragic with each additional detail that unfolds. May the innocent victims and their families somehow be able to find peace in the midst of all of this madness.

Best,

OMP777X
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tomlee
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:50 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 189):
Well if you know of any pilot who bragged that some day everybody is going to know his name, please let me know what airline he flies for. I'll definitely try to stay clear of any of his routes!

What happens when said hypothetical pilot breaks flying related world records, becomes an astronaut, lands on the moon the mars, re-invigorates the industry, inspires people with his actions and so on and so forth. That is how vague the statement is. Of course after the person crashes into the mountain it is obvious his vague statements were not positive in any way.

(This is called hindsight the vague statement become crystal clear after the fact)

Now if someone who was having a work conversation with you suddenly stopped responding with sentences and switched to single/few words that have nothing to do with what your asking/talking about coupled with a odd face expression and change of tone (all while still talking to you not working on a computer/cellphone or anything) then you should be worried and call your HR department that your co-worker zoned out and was acting oddly mid conversation. That is a legitimate red flag.
 
AR385
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:27 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 194):
What happens when said hypothetical pilot breaks flying related world records, becomes an astronaut, lands on the moon the mars, re-invigorates the industry, inspires people with his actions and so on and so forth. That is how vague the statement is. Of course after the person crashes into the mountain it is obvious his vague statements were not positive in any way.

If you live with someone or spend time with someone and you know such person takes serious psychiatric medication because the person told you or you have seen them, and one day that person makes those "vague" statements, the minimum someone with common sense will do is call a relative of that person and let them know about the "vague" statements. The minimum.

Moreover if that person wakes up at night screaming things about planes crashing, and you know because you sleep next to the person, well, the statements are not so "vague."

It´s no hindsight bias. It´s just one more hole in the proverbial swiss cheese that in this case aligned. It´s also one more way in how the ball was dropped multiple times by multiple people with this person.

[Edited 2015-03-30 01:29:48]
 
Lizzie
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:30 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 186):
About the depression, that's what I said. Either it's a part of a broader diagnosis or a misdiagnosis. But his actions were psychotic or psychopathic, not depressive. He he were suffering from depression he would have hoped up in his apartment following all this news. If anything, he would have researched stealing a plane and crashing it. But researching and planning a mass murder is not the action of a depressive and it further stigmatizes those suffering depression to be lumped in with this guy.

The issue of stigma is important, but the fact is that just as most people with depression do not commit mass murder, nor do most people with psychosis. "Lumping in" anyone with this guy, whether people with depression, people with suicidal ideation, people with psychosis, or people with girlfriend problems, or people with eyesight problems, is indeed absurd. But that does not mean that those features, in this person, did not contribute to his actions.

Where the stigma issue becomes important is that it prevents people with such problems from seeking help when they need it - and that is when things start to become a little dangerous.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:55 am

Medical confidentiality is in the discussion right now. For certain professions like pilots, doctors should be allowed to call the Airline, or at least the LBA and identify a potential threat diagnosed.

That sounds good, but what if a Pilot does not notify a doctor, or lies to a doctor about his profession? This guywould have taken all means to avoid that Germanwings would get notified about his mental health Status.

As to the Girl friend, I doubt that she can become aq happy woman ever again, she knows herself that she has made a mistake in not reporting to the Company
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RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:25 am

Quoting smolt (Reply 171):
2. ANA61 Hi Jack 1999 July 23 JA8966 B747-400D

Ugh. One could argue from this incident that crew have saved more than 500 people by breaking through a cockpit door, and a reinforced one has made it impossible for the crew to save 150 people just last week.

Newspapers (e.g. the German ZEIT) have written that there is yet *no* official statement about the FO being depressive, or having other psychological troubles. All they have is evidence of hiding non-psychological medical problems from his employer, and circumstantial evidence pointing to psychological issues (the break during the training in Arizona, the statements of his girlfriend...).

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 197):
As to the Girl friend, I doubt that she can become aq happy woman ever again, she knows herself that she has made a mistake in not reporting to the Company

Was that a mistake? Note that we tend to look at history through the ending, not through the beginning. Now it is terribly clear that many doctors, the girlfriend, possibly friends should have informed the LBA or LH in order to save many lives. But did something actually point to any future wrongdoing? Perhaps the girlfriend thought that being a pilot helps him not to be a control freak anymore, as he can do something he thoroughly enjoys.

And "Prohibits possession of keys to the cockpit by crewmembers not assigned to the cockpit." on http://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=5470 - so, any FA knowing the access code the cockpit was already in breach of a FAA regulation for the past ~14 years?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
tomlee
Posts: 610
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:01 am

RE: Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 13

Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:31 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 195):
If you live with someone or spend time with someone and you know such person takes serious psychiatric medication because the person told you or you have seen them, and one day that person makes those "vague" statements, the minimum someone with common sense will do is call a relative of that person and let them know about the "vague" statements. The minimum.

Ok and the relative is going to forsee the future and call the police? Having a bad dream, complaining about work, saying vague statements are not remotely enough to tell with certainty that they are going to do something horribly like kill 149 people.

How is a person supposed to tell the difference between what is a "serious" medication and a "regular" medication and a "harmless" medication. Even if someone knew they were taking drugs for a mental problem(s) they are not pharmacists and they might even be sugar pills (You can prescribe that as a doctor and it works very well in many cases, especially ones related to the mind). (Doctors typically don't tell the patient they are getting a placebo but studies where they do tell but advocate how effective they are seem to maintain the very real placebo effect)

Quoting AR385 (Reply 195):
Moreover if that person wakes up at night screaming things about planes crashing, and you know because you sleep next to the person, well, the statements are not so "vague."

See interpreting dreams/nightmares is a completely incorrect thing to do especially if your asking people to take any vague statement and fill the blanks in with whatever the person says while sleeping or during a nightmare. I'm sure people dream of many things and have many nightmares of various events, what a person says when they are sleeping leading to suspicion of plotting a mass murder would fail so quick in court it wouldn't even be funny. As it stands now research into what dreams indicate about future actions is very shaky at best.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 195):
It´s no hindsight bias. It´s just one more hole in the proverbial swiss cheese that in this case aligned. It´s also one more way in how the ball was dropped multiple times by multiple people with this person.
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 197):
As to the Girl friend, I doubt that she can become aq happy woman ever again, she knows herself that she has made a mistake in not reporting to the Company

It is exactly hindsight bias because the person telling us this information didn't realize it herself yet you claim that she should have been able to (your brain is saying it is so crystal clear because you have access to post-event information and that is called in hindsight)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ex-girl...ndreas-lubitz-speaks-out-1.3013485
"I never knew what he meant, but now it makes sense," she told Bild.

(She lived with him didn't she and in all that time all she could determine is that he had some general problem and left him, she never thought that he was a mass murderer in waiting to crash his plane at a moments notice.)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/andreas...ot-called-100-fit-to-fly-1.3010191
"gave off a good feeling", "I can't remember anything where something wasn't right.", ...

People around him did not appear to believe even after the event that he could have done it. Basically he hid it in a manner which his co-workers, girlfriend, family, friends couldn't have known that he would go and intentionally crash into the mountainside.

Maybe if everyone he knew had secret meetings where they compared notes and planted a bug on him to watch and listen to his every move and utterance they would have been able to figure it out but that is a bit extreme to expect of a group of unrelated people. Sure the doctors could have done a bit more but they only break the patient privacy on an immediate and actionable threat which never existed to them as he never made any overt signs. An eye doctor typically doesn't ask mental state questions to see if a patient is going to go nuts.

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