BA And The 787-8

MrHMSH · Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:12 am

I've done one on SQ and the A330 and BA and the A380, and found both to be full of informative facts and debates, so here's to my hat-trick:

BA have taken delivery of all 8 788s, and they fly to:
Austin,
Calgary,
Chengdu,
Chennai,
Hyderabad,
Toronto,
Seoul,
Philadelphia,
Montreal.

I'm wondering what the future will be, the 788 seems absolutely perfect as a 'test the water' aircraft to launch new routes, many on here have said that (for example) the 'test route' of AUS has been very successful for them.

BUT

not all of the 788 routes are really test routes, so I would like your thoughts as to what may happen when the 789 reaches BA's fleet, whether the 789 will take over some of these routes, freeing up the 788 to be a test route aircraft or whether they'll take over any 772 routes instead. If the 789 replaces the 788 on these routes, where do you see the 788 opening up new routes?

Regards,
Martin

LAX772LR · Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:16 am

Quoting MrHMSH (Thread starter):
not all of the 788 routes are really test routes

PHL immediately springs to mind; that one's hub-hub.

One would also think BA could sling some bigger metal/plastic into YYZ, despite how competitive it is.

Quoting MrHMSH (Thread starter):
whether the 789 will take over some of these routes, freeing up the 788 to be a test route aircraft or whether they'll take over any 772 routes instead. If the 789 replaces the 788 on these routes, where do you see the 788 opening up new routes?

IINM, won't the 789s all have F? If so, that may prove a little much for some 788 routes.

MrHMSH · Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:29 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
IINM, won't the 789s all have F? If so, that may prove a little much for some 788 routes.

I'd forgotten that, it would seem to suggest a different set of routes, you see different configurations on different routes e.g. 772s with more premium seats going to places like JFK and lower ones going from LGW to the Caribbean, I think.

I imagine that at least *some* of the 788 routes will be upguaged, whether to a 789 or 772 (or a 4x daily A380 serice to Auston... who knows?), so there may be a few 788s spare to launch new long haul routes.

rta · Sat Apr 04, 2015 6:13 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
One would also think BA could sling some bigger metal/plastic into YYZ, despite how competitive it is.

They will in the summer. BA92 is changing from the 787 to 777.
edit: except on Fridays?

[Edited 2015-04-03 23:44:58]

kaitak · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:11 am

I wonder if, in time, BA has the option to "roll over" its 788 fleet and replace them with 789s?

That said, I think there is a place for a small widebody in the fleet, perhaps as supplementary capacity on certain routes.

Alternatively, they could restrict them to a lower MTOW and perform the role currently being done by the 763, on high density short haul routes, such as FRA, MAD, ATH, DME etc.

TedToToe · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:23 am

Quoting MrHMSH (Thread starter):

Under 'testing the water', my money is on SCL. Then, of course, there is the 'which US city will BA operate to next?' debate, which has been covered at length in a number of other threads. I'm hoping for CMH but expecting MSY.

SQ773 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:25 am

In near future, BA ( like some other operators I guess ) can use the 788 for second or third frequencies. Makes sense to me.

You open a destination with a 788, then upgauge to 789 ot 772...
And then you add a second frequency to a well stablished destination ( i.e. YYZ, DFW,etc ) with the 788 while keeping the 380, 77W or 359 as main metal on that route

vv701 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:26 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
IINM, won't the 789s all have F?

Yes. An eight-seat F Class cabin.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 4):
I think there is a place for a small widebody in the fleet, perhaps as supplementary capacity on certain routes.

BA currently operate a small fleet of seven 3-class 763s configured for up to 192 passengers (J24 / W24 / Y144) that are reaching the end of their useful life.

BA have a small fleet of eight new 3-class 787-8s configured for up to 214 passengers (J35 / W25 / Y154).

BA have and are apparently not planning to operate any other 3-class aircraft.

Coincidence? Perhaps. But BA certainly sees a current market for a small, twin-aisle, 3-class long-haul aircraft, Whether that market is changing . . . I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens later this and next year when the -9s start to arrive.

jfk777 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:50 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 4):
I wonder if, in time, BA has the option to "roll over" its 788 fleet and replace them with 789s?

The small 787-8 fleet is useful to BA for the smaller cities, its not "another plane" adding to fleet complexity. Its the smaller member of the 787 family, BA will have many 787 of all types.

MrHMSH · Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:19 pm

Quoting TedToToe (Reply 5):
Under 'testing the water', my money is on SCL.

I think SCL is the right type of destination as a 'test route', but I don't think it will happen as it eats too much into IB's bread and butter market. Having said that I think it could be good for BA.

Quoting SQ773 (Reply 6):
You open a destination with a 788, then upgauge to 789 ot 772...
And then you add a second frequency to a well stablished destination ( i.e. YYZ, DFW,etc ) with the 788 while keeping the 380, 77W or 359 as main metal on that route

Seems sensible. Although BA seem to prefer the A380 and 77W mix if they do that, SIN and HKG prime examples.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
The small 787-8 fleet is useful to BA for the smaller cities, its not "another plane" adding to fleet complexity. Its the smaller member of the 787 family, BA will have many 787 of all types.

This is what I was thinking of, but a lot of the 787 routes aren't small cities, which is a little strange, and why I was wondering whether a 772 or 789 would eventuall be substituted.

AWACSooner · Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:32 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Thread starter):

BA have taken delivery of all 8 788s, and they fly to:
Austin,
Calgary,
Chengdu,
Chennai,
Hyderabad,
Toronto,
Seoul,
Philadelphia,
Montreal.

Don't forget EWR

rtfm · Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:44 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 7):
BA have and are apparently not planning to operate any other 3-class aircraft.

You are forgetting the 15 (I think it's 15...) three class 777-200ERs....

Speedbird2155 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:11 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 7):
BA currently operate a small fleet of seven 3-class 763s configured for up to 192 passengers (J24 / W24 / Y144) that are reaching the end of their useful life.

While these aircraft are configured for up to 192, BA sells these as 189 max (J24/W24/Y141) with 3 Y seats blocked for crew rest. On some longer flights, they are sold as J23 with one J seat blocked for flight crew rest.

INFINITI329 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:26 pm

Quoting Speedbird2155 (Reply 12):
3 Y seats blocked for crew rest.

I thought the 787 had dedicated crew rest areas

speedbored · Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 13):
I thought the 787 had dedicated crew rest areas

You might want to check the quote that Speedbird2155 was replying to

steve6666 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:42 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 9):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
The small 787-8 fleet is useful to BA for the smaller cities, its not "another plane" adding to fleet complexity. Its the smaller member of the 787 family, BA will have many 787 of all types.

This is what I was thinking of, but a lot of the 787 routes aren't small cities, which is a little strange, and why I was wondering whether a 772 or 789 would eventuall be substituted.

I think this is inevitable - and you just have to do the maths. There *were* 14 long haul B763s, and there will be only 8 B787-8s, so the aircraft to replace the remaining 6 B763s will have to be a mixture of B787-9s/B772s. In reality, I think it's more likely there will be a re-jigging of the routes that are currently B787-8 when the B787-9s start arriving.

It's interesting because just going from B763 to B787-8 is a pretty substantial increase in capacity (10% or so) so going to a B787-9 or B772 is even more ballsy. I suspect that, for example, the LHR-NAS-GCM (which iirc, is rumoured to be going to the B772), will see a reduction in frequency from 4x per week and the slots gained used to try new routes.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 13):
Quoting Speedbird2155 (Reply 12):
3 Y seats blocked for crew rest.

I thought the 787 had dedicated crew rest areas

The original post was referring to the B763.

pnwtraveler · Sat Apr 04, 2015 2:40 pm

Quoting rta (Reply 3):
Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
One would also think BA could sling some bigger metal/plastic into YYZ, despite how competitive it is.

They will in the summer. BA92 is changing from the 787 to 777.
edit: except on Fridays?

[Edited 2015-04-03 23:44:58]

You see a variety of aircraft into YYZ. One or two 788, one 777, and sometimes the 744. There are three flights. Does anyone know if a fourth is being added this year? In the past there has been a 763 or 757 that has flown via a NYC airport as well.

burnsie28 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 2:45 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
PHL immediately springs to mind; that one's hub-hub.

Well considering BA flies it 2x a day, the first flight is a 777, the late night arrival is a 787.

Planeflyer · Sat Apr 04, 2015 2:47 pm

How about other secondary cities in China and India?

sunrisevalley · Sat Apr 04, 2015 3:04 pm

Quoting steve6666 (Reply 15):
It's interesting because just going from B763 to B787-8 is a pretty substantial increase in capacity (10% or so)

and in the belly from 4 pallet plus 14 LD2 to ( in BA's seating layout) 6 pallet plus 8LD3 for bags.

vv701 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 3:04 pm

Quoting RTFM (Reply 11):
You are forgetting the 15 (I think it's 15...) three class 777-200ERs....

Yes. Thanks. It is 15. Ten are configured for 275 passengers (J48 / W24 / Y203). Then there is the LGW based Caribbean / Florida fleet of five. They are configured for 283 passengers (J40 / W24 / Y219). Completely overlooked them as they are in a different capacity class to the 787-8s and 763s.

ams747757 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 17):

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
PHL immediately springs to mind; that one's hub-hub.

Well considering BA flies it 2x a day, the first flight is a 777, the late night arrival is a 787.

Sometimes PHL sees the 767 instead of the 787 sometimes don't we? the 787 does have more capacity that just isn't needed year round if I'm not mistaken. Although those 767s are going away soon aren't they?

phillyramp270 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting ams747757 (Reply 21):

Majority of the time.. It is the 767 that we see more of

N415XJ · Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:49 pm

I remember that a while ago there was talk of them starting CMH with the 788. Any more news on that front?

caleb1 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:44 pm

I am still surprised that the 787 does not serve SAN. I think that the 777 is too much aircraft for the route, but I am obviously wrong. BTW, my money on the next 787 city would be PDX.

vv701 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Quoting Planeflyer (Reply 18):
How about other secondary cities in China and India?

BA flies to BGR, BOM, DEL, HYD and MAA and relatively recently suspended CCU. It also looks to me that for the PRC their relatively recent addition of CTU has not lived up to expectations. To an extent the CCU / CTU situation may be due to the location of the BA hub at the edge of North West Europe. This reduces the amount of transfer traffic if obtains to eastern destinations.

On the other hand AUS seems to have been very successful. To an extent this may be due to the location of the BA hub at the edge of North West Europe, ideal for picking up trans-Atlantic transfer traffic originating in Continental Europe, Africa, the Middle East and even Southern Asia.

So I think the emphasis on Asian expansion that BA touted a little while ago may now be on the back burner

eastern023 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:13 pm

SCL is in dire need of access to London. Rumors have been on for years of either LA or BA opening the route. My money is on BA LHR-SCL, this route was served (as a GRU then EZE tag on) during the 90's by BA 744. Maybe LA would venture on LIM-LHR. Now the real questions is: where are all these slots coming from?

rta · Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:16 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 10):
Don't forget EWR

Not anymore. It stopped just recently.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 16):
You see a variety of aircraft into YYZ. One or two 788, one 777, and sometimes the 744. There are three flights. Does anyone know if a fourth is being added this year? In the past there has been a 763 or 757 that has flown via a NYC airport as well.

I only saw three for the summer. All three operated on a 777, except for BA92 on Fridays.

Viscount724 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:45 pm

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 26):
SCL is in dire need of access to London

Why? The fact that there is no direct service is a good indication that it's not a big market.

sethwiddowson · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:28 pm

What are your thoughts on seeing BA at CLT / Would it be a 787?

tomcat · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:45 pm

Quoting steve6666 (Reply 15):
It's interesting because just going from B763 to B787-8 is a pretty substantial increase in capacity (10% or so) so going to a B787-9 or B772 is even more ballsy.

Well, 10% increase in capacity over about 20 years is pretty much negligible. Especially for flights operated to rapidly growing cities from a slot constrained airport like LHR.

SCL767 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:47 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 9):
I think SCL is the right type of destination as a 'test route', but I don't think it will happen as it eats too much into IB's bread and butter market. Having said that I think it could be good for BA.

The two most visited cities in Europe by Chileans are Madrid followed by London. IAG routes pax traveling between SCL and LHR on flights connecting via the MAD hub; as well as GRU via codeshare flights operated by LAN on the SCL-GRU route. Similarly, LATAM routes pax traveling between SCL and LHR onto flights operated by TAM via the GRU hub; as well as codeshare flights operated by both IB and BA via MAD.

eadc8 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:52 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 10):
Don't forget EWR

EWR went back to 2X 777

rikkus67 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:52 pm

YYC (Calgary) is currently back to a 763, last time I checked. I believe it will go back to the 788 later this year.

loonytoon44 · Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:54 pm

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 33):

October 23rd it returns I think.

hkcanadaexpat · Sun Apr 05, 2015 2:59 am

Over the course of time, the 788 will be used for thin long haul routes with little/no demand for first class. There are only two types that have no first class out of LHR, the 788 and some 772. The 772 will be used on more heavy routes whereas the 788 on thin routes. So coming to mind, the 788 should (long-term) be on EBB, YYC, YUL, BWI, CTU, MAA and HYD. PHL/NAS-GCM may swap with CTU/YUL and others on a seasonal basis but that's about it.
Remember there are only 8x 788s so it can't go onto 25 different routes. 7 or 8 max.

So by Jan 1, 2016, i would bet on the 788s being semi-permantly on BWI, CTU, EBB, HYD, MAA, YYC and YUL.

A

yellowtail · Sun Apr 05, 2015 3:27 am

Under test the waters, LHR PTY would be a perfect 788 route.

Beatyair · Sun Apr 05, 2015 3:47 am

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 33):

It will have to go back to the 787 something as the 767's retire or stop flying to YYC. I think you are right as the 789 is about to come on stream in July and as they take there place some of the 788's will revert back to the less dense routes.

divemaster08 · Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:35 am

Quoting steve6666 (Reply 15):
It's interesting because just going from B763 to B787-8 is a pretty substantial increase in capacity (10% or so) so going to a B787-9 or B772 is even more ballsy. I suspect that, for example, the LHR-NAS-GCM (which iirc, is rumoured to be going to the B772), will see a reduction in frequency from 4x per week and the slots gained used to try new routes.

We have rumours that this route will go to a 772, and from LGW.... sad times...

RyanairGuru · Sun Apr 05, 2015 5:31 am

Long term EBB and BWI are practically guaranteed to be 788 routes so long as they remain in the BA system.

YYC, HYD and MAA are highly likely to stay with 788s, but I guess 777s are completely beyond the realm of possibility.

The real "unknowns" are AUS, YUL and the odd-ball late night services to YYZ, PHL and EWR. Realistically those ones will change between 788s, 789s and 777s by season/day of week.

Quoting MrHMSH (Thread starter):
not all of the 788 routes are really test routes

But they are ex-767 routes, and more than anything else the 788 is the long haul 763 replacement for BA. That said, I feel that BA is one of the few airlines that could actually benefit from more 788s, to replace the 767s and have spares to try some fun things with the BD slots.

hoons90 · Sun Apr 05, 2015 5:41 am

Are the mixed-fleet cabin crew trained on the 787 now? If not, did LHR-ICN go to the Worldwide crew group?

MrHMSH · Sun Apr 05, 2015 8:04 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 39):
But they are ex-767 routes, and more than anything else the 788 is the long haul 763 replacement for BA. That said, I feel that BA is one of the few airlines that could actually benefit from more 788s, to replace the 767s and have spares to try some fun things with the BD slots.

The Far East/India routes aren't though, and as we see they're using them to expand new routes rather than just be 1-1 767 replacement.

rikkus67 · Sun Apr 05, 2015 8:05 pm

Quoting beatyair (Reply 37):
the 788's will revert back to the less dense routes.

If memory stand correct, this was more an issue of not enough 788's yet in the fleet. By reverting back to the 763 on the YYC run for a while, it gives BA a chance to test other markets with the type.

vv701 · Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:26 pm

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 42):
If memory stand correct, this was more an issue of not enough 788's yet in the fleet.

All eight of the 787-8s that BA have ordered are already operational.

Delivery of the 16 787-9s that BA have ordered are scheduled to start this coming September. Five are slated for delivery by the year end, a futher six in 2016 and the last five the following year.

BA also have ordered 12 787-10s, Deliveries of these aircraft are scheduled to be between 2019 and 2021.

There is also a BA order for a further six 787s. However they have yet to specify the type(s) that this part of their order will cover. (Origionally an order for 18 787s of an unspecified type was placed but the order for 12 of these aircraft was converted to -10s when BA became a launch customer for thie type.)

Finally BA have purchase rights on a further 10 787 frames.

So it is possible if unlikely that the all or part of the order for an unspecified type could be converted to 787-8s.

MrHMSH · Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:34 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 43):
All eight of the 787-8s that BA have ordered are already operational.

Delivery of the 16 787-9s that BA have ordered are scheduled to start this coming September. Five are slated for delivery by the year end, a futher six in 2016 and the last five the following year.

BA also have ordered 12 787-10s, Deliveries of these aircraft are scheduled to be between 2019 and 2021.

There is also a BA order for a further six 787s. However they have yet to specify the type(s) that this part of their order will cover. (Origionally an order for 18 787s of an unspecified type was placed but the order for 12 of these aircraft was converted to -10s when BA became a launch customer for thie type.)

Finally BA have purchase rights on a further 10 787 frames.

So it is possible if unlikely that the all or part of the order for an unspecified type could be converted to 787-8s.

You seem to be 'in the know', can you explain or speculate what the 789s will replace? Will they be a replacement for early 772s? They are about the right size, but I don't recall what they were replacing. The 78Js were indicated at one point to be the 'lower' 744 replacement, the 788s are 767 replacements, so what about the 789?

vv701 · Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 44):
can you explain or speculate what the 789s will replace?

What they could replace is anything in the BA fleet except their 318s but including some 319s. 319s? Yes. Look at it this way. BA does not have to offer a service tomorrow to every destination that it serves today. And the destinations it currently serves could be served in the future by a reduced daily frequency. I

n the past BA has flown to destinations like BOG. More recently it suspended its CCU flights. So it could replace one 319 with three 787-9s . Three? Yes. A BA 319 typically operates three daily rotations out of LHR using three daily slot pairs. Their 787-9s likely will operate only one rotation a day, So suspend a three daily short-haul 319 flights, retire a 319, take delivery of three new 787-9s and use them to launch three new once-daily long-haul rotations. Unlikely? Perhaps. But certainly not impossible.

However even with no change in services recognise that the limited choices BA had when it ordered its first 16 744s back in August 1986 almost meant that one size (of aircraft) had to fit all (routes). Indeed BA cancelled orders for several 744s in 1997 and ordered more 772s, a type not announced until 1992, instead.

Today BA has orders in hand for five different sizes of twin-aisle aircraft. By better fitting aircraft size to route size BA should be able to improve yields without putting up prices, This could be achieved by reducing the number of discounted tickets that it sells by reducing the number of passengers flying routings like CDG-LHR-JFK and CPH-LHR-LAX who could have booked to fly direct if at a higher cost.

I suppose this is a long-winded way of saying I have no idea what the 787-9s BA has on order will replace!

sunrisevalley · Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:14 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 45):
I have no idea what the 787-9s BA has on order will replace!

do you have idea's on their seating configuration ?

TedToToe · Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:22 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 45):

By better fitting aircraft size to route size BA should be able to improve yields without putting up prices, This could be achieved by reducing the number of discounted tickets that it sells....

If BA continue to fly to NRT as well as HND, and I think they will, then NRT is a prime candidate for the 789. A smaller F cabin suits the market: there are always plenty of Avios redemption opportunities to NRT. Keep the 77W at HND where there is more premium demand.

FlyCaledonian · Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 45):
However even with no change in services recognise that the limited choices BA had when it ordered its first 16 744s back in August 1986 almost meant that one size (of aircraft) had to fit all (routes). Indeed BA cancelled orders for several 744s in 1997 and ordered more 772s, a type not announced until 1992, instead.

BA did add 767-300ERs though, as a mixed shorthaul/longhaul fleet to replace the TriStar fleet. In the early 1990s you saw BA operating a 747-100/-200 to certain North American routes with a 763 operating a second flight to add capacity. These, however, were largely "medum haul" flights. (IIRC the longest BA 767 flight was the shortlived MAN-LAX)

What BA was really stuck with was something for the true "long haul" flights. The 744 was that aircraft really until the RR powered 777s came at the turn of the century, as the GE powered 777s weren't operating into South America, the Far East or Southern Africa for BA (where the 744 remained king). If BA had kept the BCal MD-11 order, or ordered the A340, it would have had an aircraft it could have used on long/thin routes. Indeed, if BA had either of these aircraft I wonder if the likes of NGO, KIX, ICN would have survived the Asian Economic crisis?

But back top topic, with the longhaul aircraft on order BA is really building the ability to optimise its longhaul operations by matching aircraft to demand by season, etc.

vv701 · Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:36 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 46):
do you have idea's on their seating configuration ?

I think the only information on the -9s cabin configuration is the (smaller) eight seat F Class cabin.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 48):
BA did add 767-300ERs though, as a mixed shorthaul/longhaul fleet to replace the TriStar fleet.

I totally agree. Nevertheless all the initial deliveries starting in 1990 were configured as short-haul L-1011 TriStar replacements for operation on routes like LHR-CDG.

Several of the later 763s that were configured for long-haul operations when delivered were soon reconfigured for short-haul operations. As a result the BA 763 became BA's short-haul flagship for the 'FLY NEW CLUB EUROPE' campaign of 1995 as illustrated here:

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