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FlyASAGuy2005
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Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:29 pm

Hi all, I'm new to the CLT area. There seems to be a lot going on in and around the airport and I was just wondering if anyone had any insight into CLT's "master plan" and what we can expect over the next 10+ years. From what i've seen already:

-Roadwork being done to alter inbound traffic for better flow to the parking decks.
-Several new parking decks up and about to be open.
-Car rental companies relocating (is this temporary? are they planning on building a consolidated facility?)
-New in-line baggage sortation system almost complete.
-Breaking ground for a new express transfer point for E-con sometime this year or early next year.

What i've heard but can't confirm:

-Checkin and baggae claim to be build out further and have a similar setup on the checkin side like ATL (curbside check-in etc.)
-Extension of A-con
-Extension of B-con
What gets measured gets done.
 
IAHflyer97
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:36 pm

In terms of carriers. I'm sure AA will lower CLT to about 400-500 daily departures. CLt is killer for connections to really anywhere on the coasts. Plus they've got decent European service and a really good Carribbean network. So they've got that going for them. However, South America I'm assuming is out of the question considering US just axed GRU and GIG.

Along with keeping a good AA presence, LH will stay how they are and I can see BA and QR landing there at some point. A 788 on BA and 77L on QR should be fine! And maybe... Maybe CLT-NRT. But that's a stretch.
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting IAHflyer97 (Reply 1):
In terms of carriers. I'm sure AA will lower CLT to about 400-500 daily departures.

What gives you this idea?
What gets measured gets done.
 
IAHflyer97
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:08 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 2):

What gives you this idea?

Well, you have JFK, PHL, DCA, CLT and MIA all within a couple hundred miles from another. CLT as busy as it is a little redundant. Similar to IAH during the UA/CO merger. Just more places to route pax rather than having 800 departures at a singular hub.
A man is only as big as the amount of strings on his guitar.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:13 pm

Quoting IAHflyer97 (Reply 3):
Well, you have JFK, PHL, DCA, CLT and MIA all within a couple hundred miles from another. CLT as busy as it is a little redundant. Similar to IAH during the UA/CO merger. Just more places to route pax rather than having 800 departures at a singular hub.

Wouldn't you agree that they all serve a unique purpose? And saying all within a couple hundread miles is reaching a bit no. Take JFK and MIA out of the equation for a second. PHL, DCA, CLT co-exhisted for a very long time prior to AA. MIA is no doubt THE transfer point going south. JFK serves its own purpose and does not see the connection flows that CLT sees today. DCA is imbedded in it's O/D power. To single out CLT as the redudant hub is what I don't get. Just FYI, it's AA that's knocking on CLT's door for more gates. You don't want to see this place on a busy day. Every single US gate is occupied on just about every bank. Throw in a flight or two running late and they're playing musical chairs with gates and flights.
What gets measured gets done.
 
sharktail
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:31 am

These are the current projects:

http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/Airport/Pages/CLT2015.aspx

These are a couple articles on the changes coming in the next 20 years:

http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte...rs-big-plans-for-clt.html?page=all

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/incoming/article10418474.html

Forecasts call for an increase from 545,000 aircraft movements in 2014 to 930,000 in 2033.

Would go from 93 gates to 164 gates if forecasts are correct.
 
sharktail
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:37 am

This is what the airport "could" look like in 10-15 years:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9f1IX7CYAEft6m.jpg
 
IAHflyer97
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:26 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):

Of course all hubs hold their own. The same can be said about any of the US 3. And yes, PHL, CLT and DCA coexisted for a long time. But now you can't take MIA and JFK out of the question (especially MIA if you're going South). To be fair, CLT on its own isn't redundant ,even though I may have accidentally put it that way. It's all 5 hubs that I feel are redundant due to each hub being very large as it is. And they are all very close to another. MIA being the farthest away from any others. And look at some of their busiest routes. Let's say I'm coming from Somewhere West of Texas. What can CLT do that DFW, JFK, MIA and PHL can't?

Again, It's like Houston during the UA/CO merger. IAH was CO's go-to for everything. But then DEN and ORD came around and it was no longer needed to the extent that it was.

Using IAH as a comparison again, UA lowered IAH to around 550 departures but they're still building gates. Gates that UA wanted.

And I have seen CLT during peak times. Personally it's one my favorite places to connect. Very nice Terminals and facilities and large planes going all over the country. What's not to love?
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Cubsrule
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:43 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 4):
Just FYI, it's AA that's knocking on CLT's door for more gates. You don't want to see this place on a busy day. Every single US gate is occupied on just about every bank. Throw in a flight or two running late and they're playing musical chairs with gates and flights.

To me, it's the location of the gates more so than the number that is the issue. E is a bottleneck, and short of moving (or burying) the railroad tracks, there's no way to fix it. They need to move some of those parking positions to some vacant real estate elsewhere.
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MesaFlyGuy
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:10 pm

Quoting IAHflyer97 (Reply 7):
Let's say I'm coming from Somewhere West of Texas. What can CLT do that DFW, JFK, MIA and PHL can't?

Couldn't the same argument be made about any of the other hubs? For instance, if I'm looking to go SMF-MCO, the only easier connection point than CLT is DFW (Based off of total distance traveled), with MIA being close, at under 100 miles longer than through CLT.

When looking at DFW, JFK, MIA, PHL, and CLT, we have to consider the following:

1. JFK has to be taken out of the equation, as it is set up to be an O&D-focused operation. Sure you can connect through there, but it isn't convenient unless you're going to a handful of places.
2. CLT is in the perfect spot to offer good frequency to many markets throughout the east coast (much like Atlanta). For instance, CLT-JAX today (4/6/2015) has 8 flights, with a mean interval between flights of about 124 minutes. That's basically I flight every two hours. PHL-JAX, on the other hand, has 3 flights, averaging 205 minutes between flights (about 3 hours and 25 minutes between flights). That also doesn't take into account the fact that the departures from PHL for JAX look like this: 7:55AM, 4:15PM, 6:20PM. There's an 8.5 hour period during the day with no flights to JAX. DFW, with 4 pretty evenly spaced out flights over the course of the day, is again the only comparable option. And this is just one example. There are so many more communities in the southeast that either have way more flights to CLT, or only flights to CLT.

So, while I do agree that CLT will most likely see some right-sizing, I just don't see it as redundant like you do.

   
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CIDFlyer
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:22 pm

I dont really see that CLT competes with any of those hubs especially with domestic traffic, at least not in the way how CVG competed with DTW and MEM with ATL for Delta as they competed with the same traffic flows. CLT is in a prime spot in the southeast to capture the same traffic flows that DL does at ATL. Now yes come Caribbean traffic will be shifted to MIA. MIA is really a juggernaut for O&D traffic as well as Caribbean/and Central and South American connections flows but as far as domestic unless you are going to Florida like JAX/PNS/TPA (even even those would require you to fly all the way south to MIA and then back north) its definitely not the optimal hub for that purpose.

I wouldnt really say CLT and PHL compete either.. can you use both to connect in? sure. But it would be like comparing DL's ATL and LGA/JFK hubs. Different flows.

DCA is primarily used for O&D for the DC area, yes it does offer connections as well but nothing on the scale of of what CLT does.

JFK doesnt even have over 100 flights a day for AA so bringing it into the equation is a mute point. It doesn't really compete with PHL either, its more strictly O&D based with minimal connections.

If anything DFW & CLT can complement each other as a southern hub duopoly like Delta uses MSP & DTW in the northern midwest successfully. MIA/DCA are just like icing on the cake.

I think 400 daily flights is too low of a number. I see the point of of what happened to IAH in an extent, but at the same time IAH was used as an east/west hub like ORD/DEN so it competed with them in a sense. If anything I could see it level out to about 550-600 a day due to aircraft size increasing.

I read an article where Charlotte could be poised to become the next capital of the southeast much like Atlanta is today. Further population and corporate growth in the Charlotte area will increase O&D numbers in the years to come and AA would not want to walk away from that.

[Edited 2015-04-06 09:24:58]

[Edited 2015-04-06 09:33:57]
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:32 pm

Quoting Sharktail (Reply 5):
Forecasts call for an increase from 545,000 aircraft movements in 2014 to 930,000 in 2033

That's not going to happen. Airlines are using larger equipment and getting rid of 50 seaters which clog the sky with aircraft movements and provide little towards the passenger count. Look at the largest US airports by movements in the last 10 years, and they have all remained stagnant movement wise.
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Flighty
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting IAHflyer97 (Reply 3):
Similar to IAH during the UA/CO merger. Just more places to route pax rather than having 800 departures at a singular hub.

I agree that CLT is analogous to IAH. Both are growing southern cities with hubs that are prized jewels.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 10):
If anything DFW & CLT can complement each other as a southern hub duopoly like Delta uses MSP & DTW in the northern midwest successfully. MIA/DCA are just like icing on the cake.

This is correct.

CLT is a smaller ATL, except its economy is healthier. The pan-national market that CLT serves is immeasurably larger and richer than a.net gives credit for. It is fairly close to the population and travel-weighted center of the USA/Caribbean. North Carolina is growing and healthy, and so is Texas. Nothing stands in the way of continued growth and health of the CLT hub and urban area.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:04 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
I agree that CLT is analogous to IAH. Both are growing southern cities with hubs that are prized jewels.

Analogous, but only about a third as large.
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USAirALB
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:19 pm

I have been living in Asia for the last several months, but I will add what I know.

A new connector between Concourse A and B will open within the next several weeks, if it hasn’t already opened. I don’t really know what this will accomplish however, seeing as that not many passengers connect between A and B.

AA recently moved to Concourse B last week. Renovations to Concourse B/C will begin soon as well, and I here new lighting, seating, and carpet will be installed. I believe the work will be done under AA’s watch, who will also add new GIDS systems throughout Concourses B/C/E. I don’t believe D will get them seeing as the gates are common use. B6 will be moving to AA’s vacated gates in A soon. CDIA will roll out renovations to the other concourses as well.

The rental car companies will soon leave their satellite offices and move into the new consolidated rental car center. Once that is complete, demolition will begin on their old offices, and work can begin for the new satellite concourse, Concourse F. I don’t know what they plan to do with F. Originally it was supposed to be new International Concourse replacing D, but I honestly don’t know at this point. I know the facility can hold up to 25 gates.

The airport will also refurbish the Main Terminal Lobby, making it in line to look like the Terminal West project with glass, open space, and natural lighting.

A people mover project connecting the terminals is in the works as well. I think they realized it’s quite a haul for connecting passengers to connect from gate B16 to E38 and vice-versa.

Also, a new Admirals Club is in the works for E, and showers will supposedly be added to the C club soon.
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:28 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):

Sums it up nicely!

Just have one note on A ops post AA. DL is taking over A9/11. Equipment is already in place. Signage should be up very soon. There will be a shuffle on the even side of A to accomodate F9. Additionally, another gare will be added to the odd side adjacent to A9 and the parking spot for current 9 will shift over.
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USAirALB
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:14 pm

Quoting flyASAGuy2005 (Reply 15):

How many gates does DL have now? I'd willing to bet if there was room DL would open a SkyClub in CLT.
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JetBlueCLT
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:19 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):

No, B6 is moving to A4 and United will be moving the rest of there ops to A8 A10 A11 & A12.

DL, supposedly, is picking up A9.

WN, A6

A2, F9, vacation express flights etc.

Update^^ Is DL really getting A11 too? I was under the impression UAX is taking that end. I've been informed by a friend who works for DL at CLT, that DL want to expand a little more.

[Edited 2015-04-06 11:21:53]
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8):
To me, it's the location of the gates more so than the number that is the issue. E is a bottleneck, and short of moving (or burying) the railroad tracks, there's no way to fix it. They need to move some of those parking positions to some vacant real estate elsewhere.

In an ideal world, I wish they'd rebuild E entirely. It almost seems like an afterthought in how it continued to be expanded well past the main body of the terminal.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:04 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 17):

Confirmed they are taking 9 and 11. They will hsve the enitre odd side. And the city is installing an additionaly jetway by their rewuest. The additional jetway will be coming out of storage from ATL. It will be placed between 7 and 9.
What gets measured gets done.
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:15 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):
Once that is complete, demolition will begin on their old offices, and work can begin for the new satellite concourse, Concourse F. I don’t know what they plan to do with F. Originally it was supposed to be new International Concourse replacing D, but I honestly don’t know at this point. I know the facility can hold up to 25 gates.

Wow. I didn't realize there were plans for a new concourse. All things considered, it's probably not the best timing with the AA/US merger. Hopefully it doesn't end up as a ghost terminal like STL/PIT (some wings) and CVG (Conc C) went through after mergers. Or maybe they can move all the non AA/US carriers over to F one day...one can dream.  
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afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:14 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 17):
No, B6 is moving to A4 and United will be moving the rest of there ops to A8 A10 A11 & A12.

Doesn't UA still have A2 which they have had since concourse A opened in 1986? At the time it was their only gate. It seems odd their gates would be separated by JetBlue having A4. JetBlue should go to A12, not A4.
 
JetBlueCLT
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:20 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 21):

Yes, they have A2. What I said was, is UA is moving from A2, A4 and there gates will be allocated together at A8 A10 A11 A12

Quoting flyASAGuy2005 (Reply 19):

Now that's really interesting, first I've heard of such thing. So DL is picking up 3 gates in this including the new one there adding. Really interesting.
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:26 pm

Only need to take a walk down A. Proprietary equipment already installed. This is straight from the DL station manager.
What gets measured gets done.
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:27 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 22):
JetBlueCLT

I missed the part about Frontier and Vacation Express getting A2. F9 looked like a gate in that context (even though there is no concourse F), so does B6 why I spelled out JetBlue lol. A2 seems like a prime gate, especially to be used for charters and Frontiers. IMO Delta would be better offer taking A2 and leaving A9 for them.
 
JetBlueCLT
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:31 pm

Quoting flyASAGuy2005 (Reply 23):

Took a walk through there yesterday!
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UsAir737
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:41 pm

I could see CLT becoming a mainly 738, 321 and low CASM RJ's operation with a sprinkleing of 319's. I thing Doug Parker and AA AAre committed to CLT. The biggest loser will undoubtly be PHX.
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commavia
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:48 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):
Renovations to Concourse B/C will begin soon as well, and I here new lighting, seating, and carpet will be installed. I believe the work will be done under AA’s watch, who will also add new GIDS systems throughout Concourses B/C/E.

That's good to hear. Personally, I've found CLT to be an overall relatively good hub experience and haven't had any complaints about my connections there (other than, as I've said, how the farthest ends of B/C can get insane when multiple flights are boarding from those gates simultaneously). That being said, CLT - like ORD - could use some relatively cheap/minor cosmetic improvement. I think a lot of the things highlighted - just fresh decor, etc. - will go a long way in improving the appearance, along with new gate displays that don't look like they're three decades old.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):
Once that is complete, demolition will begin on their old offices, and work can begin for the new satellite concourse, Concourse F. I don’t know what they plan to do with F. Originally it was supposed to be new International Concourse replacing D, but I honestly don’t know at this point. I know the facility can hold up to 25 gates.
Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 20):
Wow. I didn't realize there were plans for a new concourse. All things considered, it's probably not the best timing with the AA/US merger. Hopefully it doesn't end up as a ghost terminal like STL/PIT (some wings) and CVG (Conc C) went through after mergers.

While I don't think CLT is in any danger of becoming another "ghost terminal" like STL, PIT or CVG, I do think the airport should be relatively cautious about investing major money in substantially expanding international terminal capacity at the airport. Put another way, if CLT is going to invest money in new terminals and more gates, the airport should be very cautious about spending too much incrementally on international capability versus simply more incremental domestic gates.
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:14 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 2):

Quoting IAHflyer97 (Reply 1):
In terms of carriers. I'm sure AA will lower CLT to about 400-500 daily departures.

What gives you this idea?

Because traffic coming in from the Caribbean can now transit via MIA to US interior points.

Or SE US traffic can transit DFW instead of CLT.

Or Europe traffic over PHL/JFK/MIA/ORD.

There's still a place for CLT, primarily N/S directional travel. But there are really no markets outside a few EAS cities and smaller communities in the Carolinas that can't be augmented with ORD/DFW connections.

CLT will shrink once network synergies are maximized.
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:35 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 14):
The rental car companies will soon leave their satellite offices and move into the new consolidated rental car center. Once that is complete, demolition will begin on their old offices, and work can begin for the new satellite concourse, Concourse F. I don’t know what they plan to do with F

When they did start calling it concourse F? I have always it referred to "A Annex" which sounded awful, yet F is out of sequence.

What they originally planned to call this proposed approximately 25 gate concourse where the car rentals are now was a "Caribbean Terminal", which sounds cool, but of course made no sense. Most Caribbean destinations from CLT are one daily flight which usually departed around 11am, though they have added more frequencies to the more popular destinations, especially on weekends. While they could possibly get close filling this terminal one day during that bank, for most of the day it would be unused or host domestic flights. Now they are more appropriately planning on calling it an international terminal.
 
CV880
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting airzim (Reply 28):
Because traffic coming in from the Caribbean can now transit via MIA to US interior points.

Or SE US traffic can transit DFW instead of CLT.

Or Europe traffic over PHL/JFK/MIA/ORD.

Same old rebuttals that don't make sense as many of the smaller cities served via CLT are not served via MIA or DFW. Why would people from the SE USA want to transit over any of the northern hubs or backtrack over MIA to go to the larger European Cities already served from CLT?

See addt'l buildout plans for 2025 presented in 2013

http://charlottechamber.com/clientup...ntations/CLT_Presentation_3-13.pdf

[Edited 2015-04-06 17:59:50]

No Runway 5-23, Linear Concourses, 5 Parallels Just like another Airport to the South.


[Edited 2015-04-06 18:03:19]
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:03 am

Quoting CV880 (Reply 30):
Same old rebuttals that don't make sense as many of the smaller cities served via CLT are not served via MIA or DFW. Why would people from the SE USA want to transit over any of the northern hubs or backtrack over MIA to go to the larger European Cities already served from CLT?

I fly into MYR and CHS quite often from NYC and I'll tell you right now that NYC-ORD-MYR and NYC-DFW-MYR are things that I am NOT doing. And PHL isn't a suitable alternative for connections as they only have one flight a day (expect on weekends when it grows to 3 or 4) from PHL to MYR, and it leaves a 7:30am, too early for me to realistically get there to catch it.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:14 am

Quoting afcjets (Reply 21):
Doesn't UA still have A2 which they have had since concourse A opened in 1986?

You must be thinking of what is currently A4. Current A2 is fairly new, installed around 2004. Formerly, that space was a stairwell labeled A that UA used to board RJs.
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afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:58 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
You must be thinking of what is currently A4. Current A2 is fairly new, installed around 2004. Formerly, that space was a stairwell labeled A that UA used to board RJs.

Oh yes, I must be. Back in the day, both of the first hold rooms on either side of concourse A were singular gates, A1 was Delta and A2 was United. I believe Delta eventually added a second jetway and it was named A3. I did not realize UA had done the same.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:27 am

Quoting airzim (Reply 28):

Are you familiar with US geography? I'm not trying to sound like an ass but to say DFW can do the same thing as CLT is beyond anything I've ever heard on here.
What gets measured gets done.
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:16 pm

Quoting CV880 (Reply 30):

Same old rebuttals that don't make sense as many of the smaller cities served via CLT are not served via MIA or DFW. Why would people from the SE USA want to transit over any of the northern hubs or backtrack over MIA to go to the larger European Cities already served from CLT?

Did you fail to actually read what I wrote? I'll quote again. "There's still a place for CLT, primarily N/S directional travel. But there are really no markets outside a few EAS cities and smaller communities in the Carolinas that can't be augmented with ORD/DFW connections."

Tell me, is ATL-PHL-EU really any better or appreciably longer than ATL-CLT-EU? Or JAX-PHL-EU, BNA-ORD-EU, or BHM-DFW-EU?

With history and precedent on my side, I fairly certain that my 'rebuttal' has been proven and played out fairly consistency and continuously through industry consolidation. I don't think I have to repeat the DL/NW, UA/CO and WN/FL rehash again.

I never said that CLT will lose service to certain markets or be shut down. And CLT does play a crucial role in certain specific markets that otherwise can't be served from other hubs. But there aren't that many, outside the Carolina's

Quoting flyASAGuy2005 (Reply 34):

Quoting airzim (Reply 28):

Are you familiar with US geography? I'm not trying to sound like an ass but to say DFW can do the same thing as CLT is beyond anything I've ever heard on here.

Lack of objective critical thinking. I never said CLT was in danger of shutting down, nor being irrelevant. Nor did I say that DFW or ORD could do the same thing as CLT in ALL markets. But back of the envelope it's close to 80%.

It is without question that CLT is a cornerstone of the new AA. I never said otherwise.

However, can it continues to support 800 flights a day. Very likely not. It's not necessary and highly redundant. The same passenger today can transit SXM-CLT-CLE can also go via MIA. The same passenger going TPA-CLT-DEN, can now go via DFW. American can now maximize traffic flows which benefits network optimization. This is exactly what's happened in previous mergers and will happen again at AA,

CLT is well placed N/S hub, something that AA didn't really have on the East Coast. This is a valuable asset to the combined company.

By definition, hubs have an insatiable appetite for being fed. In order to have the breath and depth that CLT has today, you have to keep feeding it passengers. 800 flights/day at CLT not only made sense at US, it was required to keep the operation running (same with DL @ATL). There's not enough O&D alone to justify the size of the operations. But if you want to run 15 flights a day to NYC from CLT, you've got to get the passenger feed from somewhere other than CLT.

That operation doesn't make a ton of sense in the new merged company. Simply because you run the risk of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Sending everyone over CLT from the Caribbean, risks your hub MIA operations. Same is true from South Florida, Europe, etc.

It's all about tradeoffs. I happen to think that CLT will shrink to about 1/2 it's current size (still a very large hub), DFW, MIA, and ORD will remain about the same. PHL and LAX will see an increase and PHX is destined for a large spoke.
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:03 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
However, can it continues to support 800 flights a day. Very likely not. It's not necessary and highly redundant. The same passenger today can transit SXM-CLT-CLE can also go via MIA. The same passenger going TPA-CLT-DEN, can now go via DFW. American can now maximize traffic flows which benefits network optimization. This is exactly what's happened in previous mergers and will happen again at AA,

CLT is well placed N/S hub, something that AA didn't really have on the East Coast. This is a valuable asset to the combined company.

By definition, hubs have an insatiable appetite for being fed. In order to have the breath and depth that CLT has today, you have to keep feeding it passengers. 800 flights/day at CLT not only made sense at US, it was required to keep the operation running (same with DL @ATL). There's not enough O&D alone to justify the size of the operations. But if you want to run 15 flights a day to NYC from CLT, you've got to get the passenger feed from somewhere other than CLT.

That operation doesn't make a ton of sense in the new merged company. Simply because you run the risk of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Sending everyone over CLT from the Caribbean, risks your hub MIA operations. Same is true from South Florida, Europe, etc.

It's all about tradeoffs. I happen to think that CLT will shrink to about 1/2 it's current size (still a very large hub), DFW, MIA, and ORD will remain about the same. PHL and LAX will see an increase and PHX is destined for a large spoke.


The LDFs system-wide are almost 90% and CLT is profitable. AA has no interest slashing their most profitable and second largest hub in half, and then keeping all other hubs the same size, with only increasing LAX and PHL.
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 36):
The LDFs system-wide are almost 90% and CLT is profitable. AA has no interest slashing their most profitable and second largest hub in half, and then keeping all other hubs the same size, with only increasing LAX and PHL.

Failing to see the forest for the trees
 
commavia
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
Nor did I say that DFW or ORD could do the same thing as CLT in ALL markets. But back of the envelope it's close to 80%.

I get - and generally agree with - the point, but I think that number is lower than 80%.

Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
However, can it continues to support 800 flights a day.

I don't think CLT has 800 flights per day now - I don't even think it's up to 700. I believe DFW is the only AA hub over 800 (and the only hub of that scale overall other than ATL).

Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
I happen to think that CLT will shrink to about 1/2 it's current size (still a very large hub), DFW, MIA, and ORD will remain about the same. PHL and LAX will see an increase and PHX is destined for a large spoke.

I'm not quite that pessimistic. Again, I agree in general with the assessment that some level of CLT's capacity is likely to be pared long-term just driven by the economics of the combined airline, let alone the interaction among the hubs as they're integrated. But I don't think CLT is going to be cut anywhere close to 50% - in terms of flights or seats. And even with PHX, the hub I have personally long been the most pessimistic about, I don't think it will be relegated to merely a "large spoke." PHX is a relatively lower-yielding and less business-oriented market than AA's other hubs, and it's also quite competitive with the Southwest hub also there, but I think the sheer size of the market and still-not-insignificant corporate traffic there, let alone some level of connecting flows arguably better served than other places, will lead to some form of "hub" operation, albeit a smaller one.

Quoting afcjets (Reply 36):
AA has no interest slashing their most profitable and second largest hub in half

Any basis for the assertion that CLT is AA's "most profitable" hub? On what basis? In total? Per flight?
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 37):
Failing to see the forest for the trees

Perhaps you are.

Just curious, in your opinion, where are these 20 million passengers per year that AA would no longer route through CLT when they eliminate half their schedule there go? If you haven't been to Philly recently, they are not equipped to handle it, even if it made sense, which it doesn't. I don't think LAX would work either, and you said AA would keep DFW, MIA, and ORD, at the same size, not that they would work either. Do you think AA is not pleased with their overall yields and wants to turn most of those 20 million passengers via CLT which PHL is not equipped to handle over to Southwest or Spirit? It would take awhile for the aircraft orders required to meet this new demand arrive too. Or do you think they will just increase fares even more?

[Edited 2015-04-07 09:44:11]
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 38):
Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
However, can it continues to support 800 flights a day.

I don't think CLT has 800 flights per day now - I don't even think it's up to 700. I believe DFW is the only AA hub over 800 (and the only hub of that scale overall other than ATL).

Honestly I didn't know the exact number. Upon further research, it looks like 700 total for all airlines. Arbitrarily we could remove 100 non US flights, maybe we say 600 for US. I tend to think AA will shrink to about 400 flights/day or by 33%. Again a still sizable operation.

Quoting commavia (Reply 38):
And even with PHX, the hub I have personally long been the most pessimistic about, I don't think it will be relegated to merely a "large spoke." PHX is a relatively lower-yielding and less business-oriented market than AA's other hubs, and it's also quite competitive with the Southwest hub also there, but I think the sheer size of the market and still-not-insignificant corporate traffic there, let alone some level of connecting flows arguably better served than other places, will lead to some form of "hub" operation, albeit a smaller one.

My challenge with PHX is once you cut down the operation, due to overlap from existing assets (LAX, DFW) you run the real risk of a death spiral. If you shrink the number of daily flights, you run the risk of increasing your overhead costs. If you can't cover the marginal costs and boost your yields with the smaller network, you cut again to trim the expenses. Repeat and repeat until there's really nothing left except hub city flying and O&D pairs with large corporate traffic.

I just can't see AA beating the economics that other majors before it had also faced. The one area of uniqueness is both DL and UA already had pre-existing Western hubs (SLC, DEN respectively) and AA does not. And PHX is not an overlap with a large East Coast operation which is where I'm drawing my parallels (MEM, CVG, CLE).

I guess we'll see.
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:47 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 39):

Just curious, in your opinion, where are these 20 million passengers per year that AA would no longer route through CLT when they eliminate half their schedule there go? If you haven't been to Philly recently, they are not equipped to handle it, even if it made sense, which it doesn't. I don't think LAX would work either, and you said AA would keep DFW, MIA, and ORD, at the same size, not that they would work either. Do you think AA is not pleased with their overall yields and wants to turn it most of those 20 million passengers which PHL is not equipped to handle to Southwest or Spirit? Or do you think they will just increase fares even more?

1) US is a volume driven carrier. Not something AA needs to be in order to survive.

2) The new AA doesn't need to satisfy all passengers in past years. In fact I would postulate that AA would rather dump the traditional lower yielding US traffic and focus on higher revenue business. If you take away all the FL and Caribbean flying from US, and see what's left of the network.

3) You can always upgauge capacity and drop mid day flying.

4) Again for the third time, CLT is not going way and will still be a sizable operation. It will just be smaller and re-focused.
 
CV880
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:16 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 35):
It's all about tradeoffs. I happen to think that CLT will shrink to about 1/2 it's current size (still a very large hub), DFW, MIA, and ORD will remain about the same. PHL and LAX will see an increase and PHX is destined for a large spoke.

Yes and Delta/ATL will continue to rule the SE USA if You are AA's director of flight planning. Good for my pension stability.

Btw, are You in Harare, Zimbabwe or Salisbury NC?
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:19 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 41):
3) You can always upgauge capacity and drop mid day flying.

4) Again for the third time, CLT is not going way and will still be a sizable operation. It will just be smaller and re-focused.

It would be difficult for AA to upgauge CLT significantly based on what they are already flying there, their current fleet, and aircraft on order.

You predicted AA would cut their schedule in half (which you later revised to 1/3), which is what I was responding to. Currently they fly almost 40 million passengers into or via CLT with average load factors around 90%. That is why I specifically addressed 20 million passengers. If you had mentioned AA abandoning CLT as a hub altogether, I would have addressed a number closer to 40 million.
 
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airzim
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:58 pm

Quoting CV880 (Reply 42):
Yes and Delta/ATL will continue to rule the SE USA if You are AA's director of flight planning. Good for my pension stability.

DL already rules the SE.

Quoting afcjets (Reply 43):
It would be difficult for AA to upgauge CLT significantly based on what they are already flying there, their current fleet, and aircraft on order.

You predicted AA would cut their schedule in half (which you later revised to 1/3), which is what I was responding to. Currently they fly almost 40 million passengers into or via CLT with average load factors around 90%. That is why I specifically addressed 20 million passengers. If you had mentioned AA abandoning CLT as a hub altogether, I would have addressed a number closer to 40 million.

Do you talk in circles in your current line of business? I admitted my numbers were off, but the end argument or the final numbers haven't changed.

I haven't seen a rebuttal to any of my arguments that I've laid out several times. CLT at US is not the same CLT at AA. I really can't put it any simpler
 
CV880
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:17 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 44):
DL already rules the SE.

My Point exactly.....and You think that AA doesn't want some of the pie? (MIA isn't it for several reasons)

UA already lost out years ago when DOJ axed the UA/US merger plans, which IMHO would have been a better, more balanced option than AA.
 
afcjets
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:59 pm

Quoting airzim (Reply 44):
Do you talk in circles in your current line of business? I admitted my numbers were off, but the end argument or the final numbers haven't changed.

No. Your numbers and final numbers are still way off IMO. There have been several rebuttals to your argument which you reject which is fine, but if you are now saying that AA CLT and US CLT are not going to be the same, we can agree on that.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:55 pm

I think someone said it well here CLT will be smaller and refocused
,but a MAJOR connection hub for AA.

CLT is so large right now because US needs it to be, but AA wants it to be a full hub its location is excellent and fills a huge gap in the AA network
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:11 am

Quoting airzim (Reply 44):
DL already rules the SE.

I think that may change. For most, or perhaps all, of the southeast, AA offers a superior set of hubs to DL. CLT (domestic) and MIA (southbound international) are roughly equivalent to ATL for most of us in the southeast. DFW and ORD are a far more useful set of west- and northbound hubs than DTW and MSP. NYC and LAX are washes, DL doesn't really have an analog to PHL for trips to Europe and the "interior" northeast, and having nonstop access to DCA is a nice bonus.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Flighty
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RE: Expansion Plans - Present/Future For CLT?

Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:47 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 48):
I think that may change. For most, or perhaps all, of the southeast, AA offers a superior set of hubs to DL. CLT (domestic) and MIA (southbound international) are roughly equivalent to ATL for most of us in the southeast. DFW and ORD are a far more useful set of west- and northbound hubs than DTW and MSP. NYC and LAX are washes, DL doesn't really have an analog to PHL for trips to Europe and the "interior" northeast, and having nonstop access to DCA is a nice bonus.

Both airlines have jaw dropping route networks. You make it sound like AA has a stronger set of hubs than DL. Remains to be seen. ORD is a split hub, not necessarily "better," or even as good as, DL's northern hubs. AA also isn't the strongest in the West. And DL is awfully strong in the East, even if AA ultimately wins. Tie break? PHL? True but DL makes do with competition at NYC and serves the NE, just as AA does at ORD to serve that region. DL has SEA; AA has DCA. They really are evenly matched.

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