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Wayfarer515
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Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:20 pm

In what seems to be another nail in the coffin for the Antonov Design Bureau, today Rossiya announced it was suspending the operations of its six An-148. The official version is talking about poor CASM for this aircraft type, but others are mentioning they'd started to have issues related to spare parts and components because the Antonov plant in Kiev is pretty much at a standstill.

Sad news for Antonov.

Link in Russian via ATO.RU:
http://www.ato.ru/content/aviakompan...novila-ekspluataciyu-samoletov-148
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:34 pm

This is a company that really could have used some proper western encouragement and support after the Russian debacle.

It sucks that Ukraine has been caught in the middle of yet another global p!ssing contest. It would be very crappy to lose Antonov.

The An-148 looked like a pretty cool design...and I've always had a soft spot for high winged aircraft.
What the...?
 
MH017
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:22 pm

Flew it last Summer on a LED-KBP flight: it was pretty comfortable and far less noisy than the 146/RJ  

Sad to see them disappearing from the sky  
don't throw away tomorrow !
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:06 am

Wiki tells the following about the An-148:

"The An-148 is manufactured by the Ukrainian Kiev AVIANT plant (now "Antonov Serial Production Plant") and Russia's Voronezh Aircraft Production Association (VASO). Although numerous companies are involved in the project, at least 70% of the aircraft's hardware is made by Russian manufacturers."

So in the current situation it is hard to imagine that Ukraine and Antonov can benefit much from the 148 program. There are nine planes outside Russia, two in Ukraine, two in North Korea, and five in Cuba. And then a couple of dozen in Russia, more than half with state run agencies such as border guard etc.

Either VASO takes over 100%, or it may likely be "148 game over".
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:31 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 3):

They could really use a western partner...or an Iranian partner. Wiki says that Iran was planning on building their own -148's from knockdown kits.

Perhaps they could do a bit more. They wouldn't even have to reverse engineer anything, (though they probably could if they had to).

After all, Antonov owns the plans. If sanctions get lifted, they could source western parts and engines...heck, CF-34's would probably work a treat and they can probably had for cheap.

It's a long shot, but I still think there is a market for a cheap, rugged sub 100 seater...especially one which could probably be stretched a bit...past the 100 seat An-158 stage.
What the...?
 
HughesH4Ca60
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:51 am

Problem is.... the engine is already Ukrainian (Ivchenko-Progress) so by going with western engines they would also harm Ukrainian aerospace. The Russian engine maker is Aviadvigatel, they make larger engines for the TU204 while to a lesser extent NPO Saturn makes smaller ones such as the joint venture on the SSJ.

I think to a larger extent the problem may possibly be that Antonov is so intertwined in Russian Aerospance, being that the company originated in Russia and maintained strong ties with Russia until recently. Comparatively Ivchenko-Progress seem to be more detached from Russia and may have an easier time if it wanted to partner with western companies as long as it has something to offer them, perhaps the Progress D-27 propfan.....
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:06 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
...I still think there is a market for a cheap, rugged sub 100 seater...

Sure there is a market, already - or at least soon to be - a very crowded market:
ARJ21
CRJ
E-Jets
MRJ
SSJ
...with CS100 soon to hover slightly above the sub 100 seats category.

We would soon have needed an extended alphabet for new prefixes to "RJ", if BAe, Dornier, Fokker and Tupolev hadn't quit.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:27 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 6):

By virtue of its high wings, it will probably do better than most on austere runways. The Superjet and ARJ-21, will probably be at low production numbers for quite some time...the ARJ -21 still isn't in service.

Quoting HughesH4Ca60 (Reply 5):

I didn't know the IP engines were Ukrainian. I wonder how much of it is sourced from Russia. Maybe all they need is an infusion of cash.

Regardless, I'd like to see more of these aircraft being made...if for no other reason than to add some variety to the world's fleets.

We have all of the tube with low wings and engines on wings form factor we need...no matter how efficient it is.
What the...?
 
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Devilfish
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:52 am

A pity if those would just sit in a lonely, snow covered airfield and rot...maybe they could use those as military transports.


Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 3):
two in North Korea, and five in Cuba.

Would be much better if those found their way into Air Koryo's or Cubana's fleet so they won't go to waste...  ...

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mandala499
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:55 am

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Thread starter):
The official version is talking about poor CASM for this aircraft type, but others are mentioning they'd started to have issues related to spare parts and components because the Antonov plant in Kiev is pretty much at a standstill.

I think the poor CASM is the issue. The Antonov issue is a non-issue as as under the Antonov-UAC deal, VASO cam make all the spare parts... except the engine! (Not sure about the avionics)... That's a real problem.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
It's a long shot, but I still think there is a market for a cheap, rugged sub 100 seater...especially one which could probably be stretched a bit...past the 100 seat An-158 stage.

The CASM isn't good and SSJ is set to clobber the Russian 100 seater market. The market for the 148/158 would be the likes of North Korea and Cuba... unfortunately.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:24 am

I didn't think the CASM would be so much worse than the Superjet. According to Wiki, (I know, I know), the progress engine on the An-148 has slightly lower SFC than the Powerjet Sam-146...and the 148 has about the same MTOW as the Superjet.

I have no doubt you are right...it just such a darned nice looking aircraft. Besides, I believe spares are an issue and that issue isn't likely to get better soon.
What the...?
 
Wayfarer515
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:59 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 10):
I didn't think the CASM would be so much worse than the Superjet. According to Wiki, (I know, I know), the progress engine on the An-148 has slightly lower SFC than the Powerjet Sam-146...and the 148 has about the same MTOW as the Superjet.

But the An-148 only seats 75 pax. versus the 90+ that the SSJ100 can accomodate, the An-158 should be much closer to the SSJ100 but only Cubana has it.

I also read in the Russian forums that the spare parts for the An-148 were even more expensive than those of the A319, so that seems another major issue against it.
 
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Loran
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:45 am

Struggling to translate the article. Any info when the ops will be suspended?

Thanks,
Loran
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Wayfarer515
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:40 pm

Quoting Loran (Reply 12):
Struggling to translate the article. Any info when the ops will be suspended?

Thanks,
Loran

It began from Apr.9, if you check FR24 you won't see any A148's from Rossiya anymore.
 
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larshjort
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:57 pm

Too bad, it is the best looking small aircraft out there.

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 13):

It began from Apr.9, if you check FR24 you won't see any A148's from Rossiya anymore.


I'm glad I got a Picture of one in HAM just 3 weeks ago.
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Aesma
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Sat Apr 11, 2015 1:56 pm

CASM can't explain grounding a fleet, unless they got the airplanes for free ! They'll lose more money if they don't fly. Now if they lack spare parts and can't fly, that's more logical.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Loran
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:54 pm

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 13):

Thanks, does Angara still fly the An-148? Any plans to retire it, too?
Hope the Rossiya ones will find a new owner.

Regards,
Loran
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:07 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 15):

I think there are a lot of reasons. CASM might not be as good as the Superjet, but it would be better than most planes flying around Russia and its ilk.

I think the lack of spares and support is an issue. This in itself probably has more than one cause; Ukraine's economy, (or lack thereof), hurt by a number of things....

-the Russian military taking an extended 'vacation' there, (which not only hurts Ukraine's economy indirectly by making Ukraine more unstable and less attractive for investors, and directly by siphoning off funds, which otherwise could be used for industry, and the barriers on trade which directly affect Antonov by limiting supplies),

-the systemic corruption, (which basically steals money from everybody except the few in power. The Oligarchs would rather put their stolen money into foreign banks and projects, than invest in their own country...they believe in big cash now, as opposed to a little cash over a longer time.), They also have a nasty habit of changing contract terms mid project to try and squeeze more money out of foreign companies...which leaves half built factories and a poisonous atmosphere for investors.

-The poor support Ukraine gives to its industries, (Ukraine has amazing potential and it often is its own worse enemy...you can point another finger at the Oligarchs for this one...the aircraft industry is too slow to make a profit, (and steal from).

What Antonov needs is a large investment of foreign capital...(again, if you can keep the thieves away from it), or to be bought out and moved away from Ukraine altogether. I like Iran or India for this. Both countries have a slowly growing domestic aircraft industry, (ironically, I think Iran's is more advanced), and could shorten the learning curve by building upon a product that already exists.

LIke the ARJ-21, it wouldn't have to be the best thing out there, but it would still be pretty good, certainly good enough to serve domestic markets and probably cheap enough for some small sales to Africa and other places for which the An-148/158's high wing would be uniquely suited. It would probably be a government showcase product so really wouldn't have the same pressure on it to make a profit.

Again...pet theories based on the fact that I just like the darned plane. I am unabashedly a fan.
What the...?
 
Wayfarer515
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:42 am

Ok, now the plot thickens. It seems the SSJ100 will take the place of the AN-148 in Rossiya's fleet. SN95030 has already been painted in Rossiya's colors.

Definitely this is a major split between Antonov and its Russian market, and very likely the death of the Antonov Design Bureau and its plants as we happened to know them.

It also seems the Antonov employees have been on strike recently, due to non-payment for quite a few months. Right now everything is just snowballing. What a shame.
 
mandala499
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:21 am

If we want Antonov to last, Ukraine needs to sell Antonov to Russia... Most of the production is done in Russia anyways.
And yeah, the engine manufacturers too as well!

Signed,
Clueless Russian Propaganda

On a serious note, I'd love to see An-70 program take off but I know that's not going to happen without Russia.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Severnaya
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:24 am

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 18):
SN95030 has already been painted in Rossiya's colors.

Do you have a source please for this?
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r2rho
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:36 am

I don't think the An-148/158 is a bad design per se. But it has too much going against it. The overcrowded 100-seat market. The fact that Russia, even back when relations were good, was promoting the SSJ100. Let alone now. All this only further limits its already limited market, since I see little chances of it selling in the West.
The rumored spare parts issue is merely a manifestation of much deeper underlying problems, having to do more with the geopolitical background than the design itself.
 
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Ty134A
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:18 pm

the A81 was the first plane i was able to witness since it's first flight. i happened to be on the maiden flight of rossiya from LED to SVO, this was a really unique experience. and after this had the chance to fly three more times on one, the last time three weeks ago!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbLjVwpaCDw

i also had the "peasure" of working with those odd birds of FV many times in VIE and got to love them. there are many unique features on this aircraft, but most of them are of no use to airlines nowadays, except maybe for angara  .

for those who never had the chance of flying on it or seeing it from close: to me it was the real last "russian" airliner. the smell, the finishing, how it was operated, the crews operating it, and the mentality on board... all a real classic. the sound and feeling on it is comparable to any western design such as a 320, with little differences noticeable to somebody outside the industry, but in detail it was fully russian. the T20 doesn't give this anymore, let alone the SU9!

concerning efficiency and economics, per trip it is a bit better than a F70, with the fokker being a superior acft. crews loved the A81, since it became better and better during the first years of ops...

having had the chance to fly on the superjet as well (SU, WZ), i understand that russia is pushing this design. while i could perfectly imagine LH to operate the SU9 and pay money for it, there is no chance that LH would put an A81 even onto a scrapyard, the differences are extreme (but i only know VASO ones, not the ones of Aviant).

considering the markets, to me it shows how the factual ties between UA/USA/EU/RU are. on the one hand russia always supported antonov (or exploited them, depending on the view), on the other hand the new economic, political and moral partners of ukraine don't even think of supporting ukraine's aeronautic industry. remember the AN-70 being offered as an alternative to the A-400M to airforces all over EU? nobody took it. and i really don't see any other EU airline ordering Antonovs any time. with russia they lost all their markets, and with sanctions lifted in IR and CU, we might not even see the SU9 there, but CRJs and so on. and if all the industries in ukraine are treated by EU like the aeronautic one, i wouldn't want to live in ukraine, that's for sure!

but maybe EU and USA don't fake their support of ukraine after all and stop placing loans upon this poor country and instead order 200 A81 for DL, 150 for BA and another 150 for LH and it's subsidiaries.

by the way, how about the An-178 freighter, does it have any orders so far? the prototype is being completed (more or less) currently!

unfortunately this nice bird faces the same faith as the AN-140, only a bit later. a shame actually!
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Scipio
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:19 pm

The future of Antonov actually deserves a dedicated thread. It has a unique and (uniquely) diversified product portfolio, a very broad range of capabilities, and a lot of underutilized/underdeveloped potential...

With the ongoing violent divorce between Ukraine and Russia, Antonov will need to find a new way forward.

Just a week or so ago, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers decided to include Antonov in Ukraine's state defense holding company, UkrOboronProm.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 15):
CASM can't explain grounding a fleet, unless they got the airplanes for free ! They'll lose more money if they don't fly. Now if they lack spare parts and can't fly, that's more logical.

Rossiya is state-owned. I think both the original purchase and the grounding of the An-148 should be seen as political.

Part of Russia's overall political message to Ukraine: "Either you're with us (and dominated by us), or you're against us (and we'll make you suffer for it)".

Angara is indirectly also state-owned, but it cannot easily ground the An-148. Its entire fixed-wing fleet consists of Antonovs only ...

I flew on an An-148 once (Ukraine International Airlines), and I must say I enjoyed it. It was a smooth and comfortable flight, and I loved the unobstructed view of the landscape below even though I was seated in the middle of the aircraft (an underappreciated advantage of high-wing aircraft...).

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 22):
by the way, how about the An-178 freighter, does it have any orders so far? the prototype is being completed (more or less) currently!

The roll-out should happen later this month.

As far as I am aware, there are no orders yet. However, I would expect the Ukrainian Air Force to order it. There should also be a market for it in developing countries that cannot afford the more expensive western equipment.

Ukraine is very cost-competitive at the moment...

Btw, the Ukrainian Air Force has taken the An-70 into service, and Antonov has offered to build 2 more for them... They seem to think they can do so without Russia's cooperation.
 
Wayfarer515
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:38 am

Quoting Severnaya (Reply 20):
Do you have a source please for this?

Just the VK.COM page of the SSJ100, no picture yet, as soon as it is released I will share the link.

Sorry.
 
Scipio
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:45 pm

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 22):
by the way, how about the An-178 freighter, does it have any orders so far? the prototype is being completed (more or less) currently!

Rolled out today:

http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/3...n178_presented_in_kyiv_photosvideo
 
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lollomz
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:15 am

Is there Any order for the AN-178? It's a sad moment in Antonov's history.....
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RayChuang
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Sun Apr 19, 2015 11:26 am

In the end, the wide availability of the Sukhoi SSJ100 has pretty much doomed further prospects for the An-148. With the earlier teething troubles on the SSJ100 now out of the way, the SSJ100 is well on its way to replace most Soviet-era airliners for Russian-based airlines.
 
r2rho
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RE: Rossiya Suspends AN-148 Ops.

Mon Apr 20, 2015 11:58 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 25):
by the way, how about the An-178 freighter, does it have any orders so far? the prototype is being completed (more or less) currently!

Rolled out today:

http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/3...n178_presented_in_kyiv_photosvideo

Looks great. Could likely garner quite a few orders in the Russian economic sphere of influence, replacing older types - oh wait, but Ukraine doesn't have any more support from Russia to commercialize their planes. Well, surely, the EU will jump in on this subject and help the economy of Ukraine, right?  

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