United Airline
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Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 10:55 am

I would say: CX, SQ, EK, QR, QF, TG, MH, BA, LH, AF, VS...........

Maybe CI?

Is CX interested in the A380-900 still?

[Edited 2015-05-06 04:12:27]
 
rta
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 10:59 am

Honestly, I'm pretty doubtful of some of the carriers on your list. Namely CX, TG, MH (they are trying to get rid of their 800s as is), and VS. Maybe BA, LH, and AF will order a few, but not a substantial amount IMO.
 
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Loran
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:13 am

Quoting rta (Reply 1):
Namely CX, TG, MH (they are trying to get rid of their 800s as is)

CX never ordered or operated any A380s.
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United Airline
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:13 am

Quoting rta (Reply 1):
Namely CX, TG, MH (they are trying to get rid of their 800s as is), and VS. Maybe BA, LH, and AF will order a few, but not a substantial amount IMO.

Will VS take delivery of the A380-800s? Takes forever for them to take delivery.

CX has expressed interest before.

I don't think TG has plans to get rid of the A380-800s

There are rumours saying that MH will sell the A380-800s but not yet confirmed.

[Edited 2015-05-06 04:18:01]
 
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MrHMSH
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:14 am

Emirates
Emirates
Emirates
Emirates
Emirates

 

I remember discussion about CX making the leap to the A389 because it was so big that it justified its purchase.
BA would definitely replace their A388s with it, expacially if NEO'd. But not a large order since they feel they don't need a large A380 fleet.

QR yes, but only if NEO'd
QF yes, the size of the A388 is not an issue for them
TG probably not, A388 is quite large given Thailand's political troubles
MH NO. Absolutely not. A388 is too big
SQ yes, they justify A388s very easily.
LH and AF in small numbers maybe, but only as replacements, and while they like the A380, there aren't many routes that justify it.
VS no, the current A380 is iffy for them at best. I doubt they'll take any, if they order new aircraft it will be 78Js, A35Js or 779s.
 
SR4ever
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:16 am

Id say:

EK, QR for sure
EY, also probable once AUH is full
TK, IB, SQ, TG, CX, CA, MU, CZ as well
 
rta
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:17 am

Quoting Loran (Reply 2):
CX never ordered or operated any A380s.

MH is trying to get rid of their A388s, not CX.
 
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Loran
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:29 am

Quoting rta (Reply 6):
MH is trying to get rid of their A388s, not CX.

Apologies I misinterpreted that your comment was referring to all three airlines. I heard that TG was also considering dumping their A380s.
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United Airline
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:41 am

Don't think MH and TG will get rid of the A380-800s.

When Thailand stablizes its politics and when MH gets out of the woods and get good management and expand again I suppose the A380 will work well with TG and MH
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:47 am

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 5):
TK, IB, SQ, TG, CX, CA, MU, CZ as well

IB????
Highly unlikely!
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 12:22 pm

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 5):
CA, MU, CZ as well

CZ is 'struggling' with their A380s.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...estricted-to-domestic-routes-97464

I don't see the CAAC purchasing more until they are confident they can make money with what they have.

tortugamon
 
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Stitch
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 12:58 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
CZ is 'struggling' with their A380s.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
I don't see the CAAC purchasing more until they are confident they can make money with what they have.

Well first CAAC needs to let CZ operate the plane on the long-haul routes it was designed for and not restrict it to mostly domestic missions.  
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 1:07 pm

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):

I would say: CX, SQ, EK, QR, QF, TG, MH, BA, LH, AF, VS...........

CX - maybe - I think one day they will operate some sort of version
SQ - maybe
EK - a cert if it was launched
QR - maybe
QF - doubt it, airline having issues
TG - no way
MH - no way
BA - highly doubt it
LH - doubt it
AF - have already stated they have economic issues with existing fleet, so no
VS - no way
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TruemanQLD
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 1:41 pm

Quoting LX138 (Reply 12):
QF - doubt it, airline having issues

I think you would see QF operate an A380-900 on their SYD/MEL-LAX routes and use the A380NEO on LHR/HKG/DFW and potentially BNE-LAX routes in the future.
 
SelseyBill
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting LX138 (Reply 12):
would say: CX, SQ, EK, QR, QF, TG, MH, BA, LH, AF, VS...........
CX - maybe - I think one day they will operate some sort of version
SQ - maybe
EK - a cert if it was launched
QR - maybe
QF - doubt it, airline having issues
TG - no way
MH - no way
BA - highly doubt it
LH - doubt it
AF - have already stated they have economic issues with existing fleet, so no
VS - no way

Local word here is that RR have been working on potential 'A380-900combi' design.

Now that would be an interesting machine with 400+ pax space and huge '777x-busting' cargo uplift. Potential target customers believed to be the likes of KL/ CX.
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 2:45 pm

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 14):
Local word here is that RR have been working on potential 'A380-900combi' design.

There has been so much talk of reinforced floors and inefficient floor spacing and what not that makes me think it will not happen. The headwinds in terms of new regulations on combis don't help either.

Certainly a premature death of the 748F would certainly help.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 2:49 pm

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 14):
Local word here is that RR have been working on potential 'A380-900combi'

What would that look like - 2 floors' freight plus pax on top only?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 2:50 pm

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 14):
Local word here is that RR have been working on potential 'A380-900combi' design.

Airbus did study an A380-800 combi, but I really don't think it will happen. The new rules for a single-deck combi have pretty much killed the market, so considering the ones for a dual-deck combi would be even more onerous...
 
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Richard28
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting rta (Reply 1):
Honestly, I'm pretty doubtful of some of the carriers on your list. Namely CX
Quoting Loran (Reply 2):
CX never ordered or operated any A380s.

CX have wanted more cargo capacity than the A388 can accommodate... so the A389 would fit that bill, however with a third runway now underway at HKG, whether they go down the A380 route remains to be seen....
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 3:53 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 3):
I don't think TG has plans to get rid of the A380-800s

Yes they have.
Financially, TG is almost as back as MH

[Edited 2015-05-06 08:54:35]

[Edited 2015-05-06 08:56:27]
 
United Airline
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 4:33 pm

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 13):
I think you would see QF operate an A380-900 on their SYD/MEL-LAX routes and use the A380NEO on LHR/HKG/DFW and potentially BNE-LAX routes in the future.

What's the difference between the A380-900 and the A380 NEO

Quoting LX138 (Reply 12):
CX - maybe - I think one day they will operate some sort of version
SQ - maybe
EK - a cert if it was launched
QR - maybe
QF - doubt it, airline having issues
TG - no way
MH - no way
BA - highly doubt it
LH - doubt it
AF - have already stated they have economic issues with existing fleet, so no
VS - no way

Eventually they will need more capacity and they will need to replace the A380-800. Even MH and TG!

Quoting hongkongflyer (Reply 19):
Yes they have.
Financially, TG is almost as back as MH

I am surprised. Any source?
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 20):
What's the difference between the A380-900 and the A380 NEO

In its current speculated form the A380neo will not have a stretch to the fuselage while the A389 does.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 4:50 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
The new rules for a single-deck combi have pretty much killed the market, so considering the ones for a dual-deck combi would be even more onerous

Well once one has solved the problem of the single deck Combi, the A380's second (pax) deck is no different to the pax deck/under-floor cargo deck of a 77W  
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Stitch
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 5:04 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 20):
What's the difference between the A380-900 and the A380 NEO

The A380-900 would be a stretch of the current A380-800 fuselage, generally believed to be to 79-80m total in length.



Quoting PW100 (Reply 22):
Well once one has solved the problem of the single deck Combi, the A380's second (pax) deck is no different to the pax deck/under-floor cargo deck of a 77W.  

In general, that is true, though the complexity and capacity of the smoke evacuation and fire suppression systems would be a fair bit greater due to the fair bit greater volume of the main deck of the A380 compared to the cargo holds of the 777-300ER.
 
SR4ever
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 6:34 pm

380 Combi would be great, and would probably boost the market for this VLA.
 
Rara
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 6:50 pm

Well, in theory it should just be a function of growth. Demand for air journeys growth by about 5% annually. If the A389 is some 20% larger than the A388, and an airline can sustain a fleet of A388s today, the same airline, all things being equal, should be able to sustain the A389 in about four years' time. That's basically the idea on which the A380 business model was founded. Since historically, all aircraft models have grown in capacity over time rather than shrunk, there seems to be some merit to it.
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tortugamon
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 25):
Demand for air journeys growth by about 5% annually. If the A389 is some 20% larger than the A388, and an airline can sustain a fleet of A388s today, the same airline, all things being equal, should be able to sustain the A389 in about four years' time.

5% per year for four years is not 20% growth. I think 11-abreast A380 may be enough growth for most A380 operators. Not sure they will all need the A389 growth. The 747 largely did not change size over many decades.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:45 pm

The A389 will not happen because the A388 is at the top of the market. Any and all A389 orders will add one to the A389 ledger and subtract one from the A388 ledger.

Given that AF, LH, SQ, and pretty much everyone except EK has said that they have all the A380s they need, the only remaining A389 customer is EK. I'm sure they'll cheerfully order 100-150 of them...but then they wont order more A388s.
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masi1157
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:59 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 26):
5% per year for four years is not 20% growth

True, it is 21.55%. What a difference!


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speedbored
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 8:02 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 26):
5% per year for four years is not 20% growth

Well if we are being nit-picky, it is 21.55% which supports his point even more.
 
flyAUA
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 9:14 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 20):
What's the difference between the A380-900 and the A380 NEO

To be honest, if they make an A380-900 I am pretty damn sure it will not be a CEO. A stretch would be much more commercially viable if NEO'd and fine-tuned aerodynamics wise. The extra effort that would go into making a stretch also a NEO is in my opinion "relatively" small compared to the benefit. But this is just my opinion, only time will tell  
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JakeNorton
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 10:27 pm

I would cut QF out, they never order the aircraft that would be good for them... 777 *cough*....
 
Gemuser
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 10:44 pm

Quoting LX138 (Reply 12):
QF - doubt it, airline having issues

Which they are addressing and successfully too! Not out of the woods, but on the way back.
They still have 12 A380 on order/option. My GUESS is that the the next four will arrive in 2018/2020 time frame and be HGW, CEOs the remaining 8 will be A380-900NEOs (or A380-800NEO if the _900 is not launched) in the 2021/2026 time frame.

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SelseyBill
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:14 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 16):
What would that look like - 2 floors' freight plus pax on top only?

Obviously, the wing will be pretty much an 800-wing, as it was designed with 900 in mind.

From what I've heard, most of the work is adding a freight-door to the aft-wing plug-in section at main-floor level only, the top-deck will remain passenger only, with the aft section of the main deck being a freight hold.

I'm sure a design for a 'A380-900c' has been done for assessment, but whether it will be any more than a paper-plane is speculative, and subject to all the regulatory hurdles others have mentioned.

Nonetheless, it is easy to see how a 400+ pax combi variant might be potentially attractive to a wider customer base. This sort of flexibility may even point to some airlines not requiring a dedicated freighter service ?
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:20 pm

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 5):
EK, QR for sure

Both EK and QR have said they want an improved A380, basically meaning new more efficient engines, not a larger A380. There's another current thread on that subject.
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LAX772LR
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 12:28 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
CZ is 'struggling' with their A380s.

Keep in mind that that article is several years old.

But that said, while not determinative, it does sorta poke holes in the vaunted "people prefer widebodies" and "A380s are the solution for crowded shorthaul" mantras, when an airline can't make it work between metro areas with 25million and 7million people (PEK and HKG respectively).... but then replace it with narrowbodies and it does just fine.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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777Jet
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 12:34 am

I'd say EK for sure.

There might be a few 'maybes' but I don't think that any carrier other than EK is even close to being a certainty.
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Ab345
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 12:49 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 35):

A better and more up-to-date point of view on CZ and the A380 is the interview their CEO gave to flightglobal in September 2014. Characteristic quote:

Being the largest player in China is no guarantee that the carrier always gets its way. One of the most embarrassing setbacks for China Southern is its failure to use the Airbus A380 on long-haul routes out of Beijing since taking delivery of the type in 2011. This is due to regulatory resistance that prevents Chinese carriers from competing directly on international routes

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...southern-airlines-chairman-403690/

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 35):
"A380s are the solution for crowded shorthaul" mantras, when an airline can't make it work between metro areas with 25million and 7million people (PEK and HKG respectively).... but then replace it with narrowbodies and it does just fine.

I don't think the A388 was envisioned as a next gen 744 Domestic (as in Japan) or for flights between CDG and LHR . Now of course CAN and PEK are not that close but again it is a frame that does not work well for short haul (alone) since there is no real profit margin for short to medium domestic flights.
 
qf002
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 2:40 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 32):
My GUESS is that the the next four will arrive in 2018/2020 time frame and be HGW, CEOs the remaining 8 will be A380-900NEOs (or A380-800NEO if the _900 is not launched) in the 2021/2026 time frame.

It will depend on the timing at Airbus's end. If they are looking to launch the NEO in the early-2020s then I think QF would prefer to wait for that rather than take 575t frames and be stuck with them for 20 years. There is also the replacement of the existing fleet to consider toward the end of the 2020s, which is when I think the -900 is more likely to come into play for QF.

And an extra 12 frames seems extremely ambitious. That said, many of these decisions will probably be made by a new management team so who knows what might happen.
 
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 4:13 am

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
I would say: CX, SQ, EK, QR, QF, TG, MH, BA, LH, AF, VS...........

CX - I wouldn't count on it. 777-9s, 777-300ERs, A350s, looks pretty solid to me.
SQ - Maybe. They are the only reliable A380 buyer outside of ME3.
EK - Absolutely. I'm sure they'd be the ones pushing for it. Airbus should be wise to make sure the aircraft is not "Emirate-tized."
QR - Maybe. They'd perhaps order only a handful
QF - Not entirely sure, not optimistic. They seem happy with the current A380s, and while they aren't likely to order the 777X soon, I can't see the A380-900 at QF
TG - I think TG would want a VLA that fits their fleet, and can be added quickly. I think the 777-9 is a greater possibility.
MH - No No NO! They aren't going to be in any financial position to buy an aircraft of this size, and certainly not anytime soon! Not only that, but that statement is also backed up with the recent announcement of MH's intentions to sell their A380s. Too bad, the whale, however ugly it may be, looks really nice in MH's livery.
BA - Absolutely not! Until further notice, IAG as a whole is done with the A380.
LH - Is done as well. They recently canceled 3, and with new 747-8i's and 777-9s arriving in a few years, I don't see that need.
AF - I hear is having issues with their current A380s? In any case, no.
VS - The biggest "NO" on this list. I'm sure those orders are going to be, at least, converted to an A350 model, perhaps maybe 10 of either the -900 or -1000. I can also see a small order for 777-9s as well, depending on how the company is.
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parapente
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 4:42 am

Above is a fair list.So no they won't IMHO be stretching it right now.But they might NEO for the minimum possible investment.It will become by some way the most economical aircraft flying - if you can fill her up.Right now this is the issue.It may be that RR wants to 'Advance' the XWB in anycase to future proof the A350 in the mid 2020's.
 
DeltaXNA
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 6:20 am

I hear WN is interested in ordering them.....jk


Seriously, Emirates will order them, that is probably the only airline I think it definite.
 
Unflug
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 6:59 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 39):
LH - Is done as well. They recently canceled 3, and with new 747-8i's and 777-9s arriving in a few years, I don't see that need.

No more 747-8s will be arriving and the 777-9s will replace the 747-8s, not the 380s. It is correct that LH will not currently order any 380s, but if time comes for replacement they most probably will order them again.
 
chrisp390
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 7:37 am

It seems like if they want to get it competitive again they will need to upsize to a -900 to bring unit costs down again since the 777x will be almost on par with A380 seat costs. Question is will a much larger airplane be appealing to airlines if it has extremely low per seat costs?
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 7:58 am

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 37):

I don't think the A388 was envisioned as a next gen 744 Domestic (as in Japan) or for flights between CDG and LHR .

Of course it wasn't, but anyone in the industry or with even a remote understanding of it.

I'm kind more about in the aviation community, with the "why don't we have A380s doing JFK-LAX instead of xyz number of narrowbodies every day?" type questions.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Rara
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 8:03 am

LH is one of the airlines that could definitely make an A389 work if they wanted to. They have such enormous leverage with their several subsidiaries and several hubs, they could easily route enough people through FRA to make the aircraft work for them. The question is really whether they want to. They seem to be quite happy with the ZRH hub (777s incoming), they'll base the A359 at MUC, and then there's VIE... On the other hand, FRA has more growth potential than either of the other hubs at the moment (I think), so who knows.
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bunumuring
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 8:09 am

I actually can see Qantas convert their deferred order for A380-800s to a neo or -900, with delivery waaaaaay out in the future. Allows airbus to keep the order, rather than a cancellation, and allows Qantas a viable A380-800 replacement program. I have no doubt Qantas will be a long term A380 operator, predominantly into LHR and LAX, as the type is a natural fit for these routes, and therefore any new model A380 entering service at the end of the decade (or further out) would be of considerable interest for replacement and expansion.
Other mainline trunk routes, including DFW and South America? I see Dreamliners definitely and possibly a smaller number of A350s OR 777Xs...
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Ab345
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Thu May 07, 2015 12:21 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 44):
why don't we have A380s doing JFK-LAX instead of xyz number of narrowbodies every day?

First of all let me just say that i find no harm or wrong with xyz and w number of narrows doing the specific run and if I m not mistaken that was the primary use of the 757 back in the days? But I also think that given the size of the country and the size of the above mentioned cities the route could in theory use the A380. Let's say in theory all US3 tomorrow buy let's say 20 A380s each and throw them on the route instead of narrows; pax would adapt and life would go on as usual. The route is long enough and the demand high enough to excuse the frame, it's just that up to now it's been done in narrows and since it ain't broken there is no need to fix it.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Fri May 08, 2015 8:04 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 25):

Well, in theory it should just be a function of growth. Demand for air journeys growth by about 5% annually. If the A389 is some 20% larger than the A388, and an airline can sustain a fleet of A388s today, the same airline, all things being equal, should be able to sustain the A389 in about four years' time. That's basically the idea on which the A380 business model was founded. Since historically, all aircraft models have grown in capacity over time rather than shrunk, there seems to be some merit to it.

And how did that business model's predictions work out? There are a bunch of problems with this rationale.

-if traffic increases, as does range of smaller planes, then it seems at least as likely that the 50 people flying CTU-PEK-LHR on an a380 become 100 people flying CTU-LHR on a 787/a350.
-outside of insanely slot-constrained places where wide bodies occupy most slots, why not add frequency instead of upgauging?

The only responses to the foregoing anti-VLA trends are economies of scale. But a380 just isn't that much more efficient than smaller planes, especially with the 777-9 on the horizon. An A380-900 wouldn't fundamentally alter that equation. It would reduce CASM by maybe 10% while increasing capacity by 20%.
 
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EK413
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RE: Potential Customers For The A380-900?

Fri May 08, 2015 8:31 am

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
I would say: CX, SQ, EK, QR, QF, TG, MH, BA, LH, AF, VS...........

Maybe CI?

Is CX interested in the A380-900 still?

CX - Doubtful
SQ - Possible A388 replacement
EK - 110% launch carrier
QR - Possible
QF - Probably not QF is more than likely going to order A350's
TG - Doubtful
MH - Definietly not in the process offloading current fleet of 6 x A380's
BA - Possible
LH - 50/50 with B779 on order probably not.
AF - 50/50
VS - Doubtful considering they continue to defer their current order.

Quoting LX138 (Reply 12):
Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
QF - doubt it, airline having issues

What issues? Care to elaborate?

EK413
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