gilesdavies
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UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Sun May 10, 2015 9:46 pm

With the number of flights from the UK regional airports to New York again increasing this summer, for example the opening of AA's BHX-JFK, UA's NCL-EWR and TCX MAN-JFK, I was interested to know where most this business is being generated from (geographically) and market types these routes are attracting.

I will probably be shot at by my fellow countrymen for saying it, but I can't imagine much of the business is coming from Stateside, as the tourism to many of these UK cities is going to be quite limited. While cities like Manchester, Newcastle and Birmingham have a lot to offer the tourist in there own right and the surrounding areas, many of these attractions are more aimed at and renowned domestically and not so much internationally. Also most US tourists would integrate any visits in the UK regions with their visits to London.

The UK regional airports are also renowned for not generating a huge amount of business traffic and I can't imagine this is a huge pull for the airlines.

As NYC is very much a destination in it's own right, is the primary source of traffic on these routes the UK tourist visiting the Big Apple?

While I can imagine UA's also attracts some onward connecting traffic through EWR, AA on the other hand at JFK offers only limited connections, with their main hubs being DFW, ORD and the new AA hubs of CLT and PHL.

Do you think AA will be able to make BHX to JFK work? As UA have been plying the route for a number of years and has seen the route change from daily DC-10's, down to 2x daily 757 services, then daily and now only operating 5x weekly. I can't imagine either airline want to get into a price war and run the route at a loss.

I can't imagine OneWorld partner BA being too happy with AA, as it diverts further traffic away from LHR.
 
ab486
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Sun May 10, 2015 10:40 pm

BHX is great for those wishing to visit Stratford-upon-Avon and the surrounding cotswolds, which are very popular with US tourists, and also Chinese tourists it seems with Hainan having already started seasonal ops to BHX from PEK, too. The city itself has appeal. Do I think AA can make BHX work? I certainly hope so! Only time will tell.

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
As NYC is very much a destination in it's own right, is the primary source of traffic on these routes the UK tourist visiting the Big Apple?

Whether it's the primary souce, then I'm not sure, but I would imagine the UK tourist is a significant contributor.
 
David_itl
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Sun May 10, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
The UK regional airports are also renowned for not generating a huge amount of business traffic

Don't believe the hype. Just because 1 particular airline couldn't see opportunities parading naked in front of them preferring the easy option instead doesn't mean that the other airlines have difficulty picking up the regional J/F class passenger. Having said that, excess capacity ex-LHR leads to cheaper fares there than from the regions. Though one of the more surprising things is that some loadings on the TCX services are in the public domain and show the expected quite full loads from MAN but the 3rd service in saw almost as many passengers coming to MAN, which is remarkable for an airline that would not be recognised in the States. The other thing of note is an encouraging number of transfer passengers mainly on the BE services (both domestic and European) but also some on LH services as well.

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
can't imagine OneWorld partner BA being too happy with AA, as it diverts further traffic away from LHR

Contrarily, with the 3rd LHR runway being as far away as ever, they would welcome the idea that the regional passenger is being flown from regional airports as it would ease up capacity on the existing services for the local demand whilst at the same time see them generating a profit through the AA joint venture.
 
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lesfalls
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Sun May 10, 2015 10:41 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):

I think that AA could work on the route but there will still be many passengers going through LHR to get a better service on BA.
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frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 1:41 am

Well United in particular has served most UK airports for at least 10 years so they have built up a loyalty and brand awareness here. Remember that for alot of the airports United is also the only airline to offer a transatlantic service year round, so for many people this is the only option.

The demand isn't just for New York, its also for other places, many people will go for the cheapest option and in my experience the tour operators tend to increase the price mark up well above what it should be. I think you have to remember that the UK also has quite a high population at almost 65 million.

I don't know what the figures are but I would suggest that most people use the flights for connections, last summer I was on EWR-MCO and there were about 20 people on there from Belfast, also from other regions. There were hardly any Americans, on the way back there were more Americans but I could hear people ranting about connections as we were delayed. At least the well known areas you will find alot of connections.

People also goto NYC for shopping etc. IDK why you are shocked tbh.
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luftaom
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 3:14 am

As for BHX - I think that it is the size of the geographic catchment area rather than the tourist attractions - and the VFR traffic that comes with all those people.

Basically for anyone North of Milton Keynes and South of ~Nottingham/Stoke - it is just as easy (or in the case of the Midlands, far easier) to get to BHX than it is to LHR or MAN.

I know for me personally - getting from Australia to Leicester (a trip done every 9 to 10 months) is a damn site easier through BHX than it is through LHR or MAN (which is a nightmare in comparison to even LHR).

I'm just hoping that EK will upgrade one of their 77W DXB-BHX flights to an A380 so as that I can avoid the 10 abreast 777 (which is horrible).
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jc2354
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 5:24 am

2-3 times per year, business/pleasure combined, from Las Vegas to the Cambridge, Peterborough, Leicester, and Northampton area. Sometimes I luck out and can find a charter on Monarch to BHX, but usually take Virgin non-stop to MAN. I spend the first day/night at airport Crowne Plaza, then the next day take the trains (2 stopovers) to Cambridge. When RAF Alconbury closed, I was hoping it would be turned into a commercial airport. Oh well.
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richcandy
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:11 am

Hi

I don't think there is one simple answer to this.

From the UK.

You will have passengers travelling just to NYC. For business or leisure, Brits love to shop and NYC used to be really good value.

New York is also a bit like London in that many people who live there don't originate from the city. So you have lots of expats. (If you have ever lived overseas you will know that in the first couple of years of moving you can feel like you are running a B&B with family and friends desperate to come visit)

Plus you have connecting traffic, were the destination from BFS/GLA/BHX etc isn't NYC but another city in the USA, Canada or the Caribbean.

Alex
 
Damian
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:46 am

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I will probably be shot at by my fellow countrymen for saying it, but I can't imagine much of the business is coming from Stateside, as the tourism to many of these UK cities is going to be quite limited.

That certainly isn't true on the likes of UA's EWR-EDI and the newly started AA JFK-EDI, where US visitors to the UK's second most visited city is a major consideration.
 
factsonly
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:48 am

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
The UK regional airports are also renowned for not generating a huge amount of business traffic and I can't imagine this is a huge pull for the airlines.

You'll be surprised how much business traffic is generated by regional airports. Airlines, however need to adjust capacity to the the volume of demand.

Both FlyBe and KLM are great examples of airlines serving the UK business community at regional airports successfully.

Very few tourists fly MAN-ABZ or NCL-SOU, while FlyBe operates these routes 5x and 3x daily respectively. It is UK domestic business that makes these flights possible.

The same is true for MME-AMS (3x/day), HUY-AMS (3x/day) and NWI-AMS (4x/day), typical examples of local business routes connecting the UK regions with the rest of the world. These KL flights are certainly not filled with UK tourists visiting the tulips or Amsterdam.

So some of the larger UK regional airports are able to maintain links with the USA.
 
gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:53 am

EK have been successfully operating First class service to MAN and GLA for a couple of years also
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RyanairGuru
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 7:51 am

Regarding business travel, take a look at the J loads on MAN-EWR and MAN-PHL (in particular). Either there is business traffic or a lot of very wealthy tourists! MAN-PHL was notorious at US for being 100% full in J day in, day out, largely thanks to AstraZeneca
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CXA330300
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 7:59 am

A lot of it also seems to be people from XYZ part of the UK connecting onwards to the West Coast or Midwest of the United States.

FWIW, a lot of folks in Oxford and Warwick use BHX for international travel because they are fed up with LHR. So at least on ex-BHX flights you get a small but constant flow of academics, researchers, and tech folks based in the area.
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frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 11:19 am

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 12):

The midwest? Er, think you'll find its more like Florida lol. Infact probably most of it is to Florida.
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GSTBA
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I can't imagine OneWorld partner BA being too happy with AA, as it diverts further traffic away from LHR.

This might not actually be true. AA's UK regional services are covered by the joint business agreement. Which means BA shares the revenue made or lost on all AA's routes from the UK to the US
 
frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:10 pm

BA shouldn't really be getting any of the revenue when they can't be bothered to invest outside Heathrow.
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gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:40 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 15):
BA shouldn't really be getting any of the revenue when they can't be bothered to invest outside Heathrow.

They invest and employ people in Newcastle (call centre), Cardiff (engineering) and Glasgow (engineering), as well as operating domestic flights to ABZ, GLA, EDI, NCL, LBA, MAN and BHD. Their model is based on hub and spoke. Whilst it would be good to see BA fly internationally from somewhere other than London, it just isn't going to happen.
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willd
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 6:59 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 15):
BA shouldn't really be getting any of the revenue when they can't be bothered to invest outside Heathrow.

Oh please. BA is not a charity nor is it run by the state. It can do what the heck it pleases, it operates to make money for the shareholders of IAG (of which you could be one).

If it has agreed with AA that on all routes ex UK to the USA they can share profits I do not see an issue with it. BA did not force AA into the agreement, AA decided of its own free will.

I do not see why, just because they, in your eyes, have no investment outside of London they can't be allowed to benefit from a private arrangement with another company. And as other posters have shown BA does have investment outside London.

[Edited 2015-05-11 12:01:06]
 
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STT757
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 7:20 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 4):
I don't know what the figures are but I would suggest that most people use the flights for connections, last summer I was on EWR-MCO and there were about 20 people on there from Belfast

I fly frequently EWR-MCO and can attest a good number of folks are connecting from UK flights. Not all families heading to the theme parks, I see a good number of business folks heading to conventions. Orlando is a huge convention destination.
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bobnwa
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 7:27 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
While I can imagine UA's also attracts some onward connecting traffic through EWR, AA on the other hand at JFK offers only limited connections

Are you forgetting the DL and VS connections out of JFK to much of the US?
 
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STT757
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 7:51 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 19):
Are you forgetting the DL and VS connections out of JFK to much of the US?

Besides London and Manchester where else could you connect from JFK?

UA has:

London, Newcastle, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Birmingham, Belfast, Manchester etc.. to EWR.
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frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 8:34 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):

I was quite shocked to see 20 people from Belfast. I guess a lot of people in the small airports use the United flight to connect instead of flying via heathrow.
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MAH4546
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 12):
A lot of it also seems to be people from XYZ part of the UK connecting onwards to the West Coast or Midwest of the United States.

It's going to be a lot of connecting traffic to Florida. If I were to guess, Florida connections will probably represent something like 70%+ of the connecting traffic that AA has on it's JFKBHX route, no doubt. The biggest connections after Orlando and Miami will probably be LA, San Francisco and Toronto.
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rtfm
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 9:29 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 15):
BA shouldn't really be getting any of the revenue when they can't be bothered to invest outside Heathrow.

Yeah and AA clearly shouldn't be getting any of the revenue BA make flying LHR-SFO/PHX/SEA/DEN/AUS/IAH/MCO/TPA/IAD/EWR, etc, etc because AA clealy can't be bothered to invest in transatlantic flying from any of those airports....  
 
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airzim
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 3):
I think that AA could work on the route but there will still be many passengers going through LHR to get a better service on BA.

You obviously haven't flown BA.

I just flew CW on BA from LHR to DXB last week and with the mediocre food offerings, absolutely terrible IFE, dated J cabin, and crews that are largely indistinguishable from American carriers, BA is not a carrier you'd go out of your way to fly, especially if have to transit T5. I was really shocked how lackluster T5 is.
 
hibtastic
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 10:30 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 20):

Aa fly to EDI and BHX from JFK now. Incidentally, the 757 in The new AA livery is a stunning looking aircraft.
 
by738
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 11:11 pm

... and I'm led to believe more JFK from regional UK next summer also.
 
frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Mon May 11, 2015 11:42 pm

Er where else could they offer? They've already done Glasgow, Manchester and Birmingham. I can't see room for anywhere else with demand.
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BD338
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 1:09 am

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
With the number of flights from the UK regional airports to New York again increasing this summer, for example the opening of AA's BHX-JFK, UA's NCL-EWR and TCX MAN-JFK, I was interested to know where most this business is being generated from (geographically) and market types these routes are attracting.

As a reasonably frequent user of TATL flights out of BHX over the past nearly 20 years I can say that anecdotal evidence suggests a very wide range of users. I've seen full flights on many occasions, including J, sat next to business folks, expats visiting the homeland (me!), families heading to Florida on vacation, retirees, backpackers, students, weekenders going to NYC, people visiting places as diverse as Atlanta, Seattle and even Sioux Falls, SD (I remember that lady, not quite sure what she figured she'd find there but was going there as part of a vacation tour) Plenty of Americans as well as Brits. In short CO/UA found a little pot of gold to feed their network with the UK regionals.

Glad to see AA back at BHX, though I was hoping for ORD to be reinstated, took that flight on several occasions. Very handy, and better connections to the West for me. Is it too much to hope DL will add a DTW flight (BHX doesn't need yet another NYC flight).
 
gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 6:50 am

Quoting by738 (Reply 26):
... and I'm led to believe more JFK from regional UK next summer also.

It wouldn't surprise me...GLA-JFK on DL with a VS codeshare would probably do well given how popular the EWR service.
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starrymarkb
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 8:16 am

I believe UAL is interested in Bristol again subject to runway works to give a bit more margin for the 757
 
gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 8:20 am

NCL-EWR starts a week on saturday, economy has 2 seats free, biz first almost full, still about 10 or so seats available in premium economy. Hopefully the route will do well enough to return next summer, it's not as if there has been a lack of advertising this time round, something which probably helped with the poor sales on the proposed AA JFK service
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 8:22 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 22):
It's going to be a lot of connecting traffic to Florida. If I were to guess, Florida connections will probably represent something like 70%+ of the connecting traffic that AA has on it's JFKBHX route, no doubt. The biggest connections after Orlando and Miami will probably be LA, San Francisco and Toronto.

I tend to agree. It amazes me how poorly served, for a UK airport, Florida is served by BHX.

What is it, 1 TOM to SFB a week..?

For that reason alone, both UA and AA out of BHX should be rammed, at least in Y.

Rgds
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gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 8:24 am

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 32):
What is it, 1 TOM to SFB a week..?

Yup, hugely surprising given that it is England's second largest city.
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 8:58 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 33):

Yup, hugely surprising given that it is England's second largest city.


The diaspora of the city, I'm surmising, could be a contributory factor.

Or perhaps there's a preference to travel from England's second largest city to the airport at England's second city  

It is, one must admit, crazy that just 80 miles away from BHX, you can on occasion have double daily Virgin B744s, TCX A332s (and to MIA also now) and TOM B788s to the Orlando area all on one day in addition to those connecting on all the transatlantic scheduled services MAN is lucky to have.

BHX have the same problem to Canada with, I think, just one weekly TSC to Toronto.

Perhaps AA will pick up a few connections going that way also.
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oly720man
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 9:11 am

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I will probably be shot at by my fellow countrymen for saying it, but I can't imagine much of the business is coming from Stateside, as the tourism to many of these UK cities is going to be quite limited. While cities like Manchester, Newcastle and Birmingham have a lot to offer the tourist in there own right and the surrounding areas, many of these attractions are more aimed at and renowned domestically and not so much internationally. Also most US tourists would integrate any visits in the UK regions with their visits to London.

A couple of years ago I was sat next to an American woman on the AA MAN-JFK flight and she'd been in the UK for a dancing competition in Blackpool, something akin to the dancing world cup. I can't remember what style it was, but Blackpool was the place to be for it. There are lots of things that go on under the radar that you may not consider in terms of "sightseeing tourism" that take people all over the place. Conferences, trade fairs and the like will also bring people in.
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skipness1E
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting gkirk (Reply 33):
Yup, hugely surprising given that it is England's second largest city.

It's not surprising given how the market is swamped by LHR in terms of long haul offering.

Quoting starrymarkb (Reply 30):
I believe UAL is interested in Bristol again subject to runway works to give a bit more margin for the 757

The issue was not runway length but the higher yield in simply flying the same asset ten more minutes down the M4 into Bristol-East, Heathrow.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 29):
It wouldn't surprise me...GLA-JFK on DL with a VS codeshare would probably do well given how popular the EWR service.

It would surpirse me given how they couldn't manage to make a go of EDI-ATL or even EDI-JFK. They just couldn't crack the market, a Virgin codeshare is not really relevant here IMHO.

Quoting by738 (Reply 26):
... and I'm led to believe more JFK from regional UK next summer also.

Go on.......?

Quoting airzim (Reply 24):
I was really shocked how lackluster T5 is.

I felt much the same about Harare  
Quoting frostyj (Reply 15):
BA shouldn't really be getting any of the revenue when they can't be bothered to invest outside Heathrow.

You clearly don't work in a commercial environment do you?
 
gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 5:50 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 36):
It's not surprising given how the market is swamped by LHR in terms of long haul offering.

Because LHR has a huge number of flights to Orlando???
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skipness1E
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 9:50 pm

It has very cheap one stop flights to loads of places in the US. United's flights out of the regions are predicated on a load of customers changing at EWR for the House of Mouse, BHX is close enough to be swamped by LHR where the effect is magnified.
 
frostyj
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 9:57 pm

I wonder what % of passengers on EWR-MCO are British??
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by738
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 10:04 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 36):

Let's revisit this post in around 8 months time and we'll see how relevant VS code shares are....
 
gkirk
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RE: UK Regions To NYC - Where Does Traffic Origin?

Tue May 12, 2015 10:55 pm

Quoting by738 (Reply 40):

I agree...
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