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American 767
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Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Fri May 15, 2015 2:26 pm

Part 79 was getting too long with over 200 replies so I made a new thread to continue the discussion:

Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing KUL-PEK - Part 79 (by American 767 Apr 6 2015 in Civil Aviation)

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YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 17, 2015 12:46 pm

The day might come (sooner rather than later) when we, as a broad society, have to face realities which we are unfamiliar with at this stage; things we simply don't know about or don't (yet) want to know. The strange and total disappearance of MH370 may turn out to be one of those phenomenon which defy all rational explanations of our familiar world; instead the causes may have to do with exactly those unfamiliar realities.

But people prefer to stick with what they know and feel comfortable with; that's why they are looking for 'down to Earth' explanations. That's why, anyone who dares to only mention anything that deviates just the slightest from the world we know, is laughed at, labelled as conspiracy theorist and the message, possibly valid, is drowned out in ridicule.

This is understandable, if a tad narrow minded. After all, the flight deck and cabin crews have to stay firmly on the grounds of reality; or the floor of their aircraft as the case may be. There is no room for airy-fairy stuff because the demands and requirements in today's aviation industry are full-on; there is no room for the proverbial BS.

However, that does not change the fact that science moves on.
Not only that, we are also living in a world of serious and profound change; a world where (in the words of Paul Young)
"... during the twenty-first century, physics and metaphysics will unite, revealing one common truth". It may well be that the 'old hands' of the aviation industry (however young they are) may yet have to get familiar with some of these 'new realities'. One such door to that other, unfamiliar world may be Quantum Physics / Mechanics.

To cut to the chase and make the same point again but a little more considered:
Is it possible that the disappearance of MH370 is the result of an experiment gone wrong?
In other words, is it possible that 9M-MRO does no longer exist in the reality of our world but, as the result of an experiment gone seriously wrong, is it now in another reality? Wherever or however that reality may exist, if it does.

At this point I should mention again that much of this is based on a 'New Dawn' magazine article which I mentioned already in Reply 79/177.

The article examines the possibility whether the twenty technicians from the Freescale Semiconductor company may have conducted an experiment, not unlike the Philadelphia Experiment, one that went terribly wrong.
Ask yourself, why would a company like that send twenty of its people on the one aircraft?

According to the 'New Dawn' article, Freescale's best customer is the US military; the same as it is for Boeing.
Militaries all over the world have long sought total (radar) invisibility for their aircraft and ships; nothing new there.
Was Freescale working on just such a technology and it was time to try it for real? Who knows ....
And even if they did, they certainly wouldn't tell us at A.net!

Who would have to be "in the know' about such an experiment?
Probably only a very few people in some specific organisations ....
- Selected personnel in a few governments
- Maybe one or two people in Malaysian Airlines
- US Military
- Boeing
- Maybe Rolls Royce
- and of course Inmarsat

If something of this nature did happen, what about the facts that we do know? They would fit perfectly! Everything to IGARI is real, everything from there on is just one concocted story where everybody sings from the same song sheet.
And who knows, maybe 9M-MRO disappeared in a blinding flash, perhaps the one that the oil rig bloke saw.

Are there precedents for anything like this? There certainly are ....
Governments and their agencies have come up with all sorts of stories for their particular (gullible) society.
No doubt, we also had plenty of total disappearances of aircraft and even ships; the Bermuda Triangle comes to mind there, as well as other places.

So, is it possible that Freescale Semiconductors tinkered with technologies that worked perfectly well in all their computer models but .... when it came to reality, it turned out a different story - the experiment went horribly wrong?

And if something like that did happen, we can probably be sure that governments do not want the public to know!
The 'New Dawn' article reckons that China or Vietnam wouldn't know; not even Australia:
"... Australia may be acting in good faith, serving the wishes of overseas governments, as they have done in various conflicts and exercises over the past century."
Just go and look and do as you are told ....

http://www.griffith.edu.au/science-aviation/centre-quantum-dynamics
https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.4.041013
http://paulyoungbooks.com/philosophy/philosophy.html
http://www.newdawnmagazine.com/latest-issue/new-dawn-150-may-june-2015
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 17, 2015 1:41 pm

Why do an experiment on an airliner with pax and crew, jeopardizing them without consult, fully exposed to daily operations for everyone to notice when, indeed, things went wrong? If this kind of experiment would exist, wouldn't it be logical to use an aircraft from the military (if they are involved) or another covert source and perform such an experiment in some remote area away from plain view?

Apart from quantum physics an string theories, the execution in the way suggested does not sound logical to me.


Referring to my79/200 reply: With the deferred defect still in place at the time of the mishap and an unattended fuel spread due to incapacitated crew (hypoxia?) not being able to cross feed and compensate for the 1.5 Tons/hour of fuel consumed more by the right engine compared to the left engine, who knows where the aircraft ended up flying for a considerable time on the left engine only (flaming out approx. 10.000 kg later than the right engine). Probably nowhere near where the search is being executed at this time.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 17, 2015 2:54 pm

To me the only explanation that makes any senses is the pilot suicide theory. What possible mechanical failures could be serious enough to knock out the crew, disable the radios and transponders yet allow the plane to stay in the air flying for several more hours ?
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abba
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 17, 2015 4:03 pm

Quoting alberchico (Reply 3):

To me the only explanation that makes any senses is the pilot suicide theory.

Perhaps because you are not (as me in fact) in a position to construct a plausible technical senario that could explain what had happened. The "pilot did it" class of theories have the undeniable logical strength - which is in fact also their weakness - that they can explain absolutely ANYTHING - what so ever ANYTHING - that happened to ANY plane. At least it can be claimed that the pilot wanted it to look like natural causes..... The problem in this case is that there has been given no really credible explanation as to what might have caused the pilot (any of the two) to do it. What we have seen so far is nothing but highly questionable theories about certain mental conditions that should attack only Malaysian (and Indonesian) people suggested by people with equally questionable professional backgrounds...

Now the latest German Wings incident is in this context rather enlightening. We needed not wait very long to actually have credible indications based on facts as to why the poor soul did what he did.

Quoting alberchico (Reply 3):
What possible mechanical failures could be serious enough to knock out the crew, disable the radios and transponders yet allow the plane to stay in the air flying for several more hours ?

The above mentioned crowd managed to drive most serious professionals - save for one or two - out of this forum rather fast. I for one would not subscribe to any "the pilot did it" theory before any technical reason has been put to rest or there are some convincing data put forth in support of such a theory.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 1:57 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
But people prefer to stick with what they know and feel comfortable with; that's why they are looking for 'down to Earth' explanations.

Funny you should say that, because usually the opposite happens. People looking for more complex explanations to things are usually told to KISS - "Keep it simple, stupid". However, people favouring KISS scenarios when it comes to MH370 are just called lazy. Go figure!

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
Everything to IGARI is real, everything from there on is just one concocted story where everybody sings from the same song sheet.

I think it's time you presented a detailed scenario from beginning to end. One chain of events. What is the one chain of events, right to the end, that you think happened to MH370? Where did it land? Who took it? Why? Etc.

Quoting alberchico (Reply 3):
To me the only explanation that makes any senses is the pilot suicide theory.

To me it is the scenario that 'ticks the most boxes'.

There are other possible scenarios. They just don't tick as many boxes as the Captain did it scenario IMHO.

Quoting alberchico (Reply 3):
What possible mechanical failures could be serious enough to knock out the crew, disable the radios and transponders yet allow the plane to stay in the air flying for several more hours ?

Something that hasn't happened to the 777 before or since, or to any other plane is this day and age  
Quoting abba (Reply 4):
I for one would not subscribe to any "the pilot did it" theory before any technical reason has been put to rest or there are some convincing data put forth in support of such a theory.

So what theory do you subscribe to? What theory do you think ticks the most boxes at this stage? Or, are you just going to conveniently sit on the fence?  
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 2:08 am

Quoting abba (Reply 4):
Now the latest German Wings incident is in this context rather enlightening. We needed not wait very long to actually have credible indications based on facts as to why the poor soul did what he did.

The "poor soul"?

I prefer to use the term 'mass murderer'.

I just wonder how long we would have had to have waited to find out what happened without the CVR recording in which the Captain could clearly be heard trying to break his way back into the cockpit he was locked out of, or, without the FDR data confirming the FO, who was in the cockpit, intentionally set the auto pilot to crash the plane, or..... wait for it..... without the plane itself!

Do you still think we would have known so quickly what happened to GermanWings if the plane was still missing more than a year later??? Seriously...  

Without the plane, the working CVR, the working FDR, I really doubt they would have narrowed it down to pilot suicide and pinned that on depression suffered by the FO so quickly... They'd still probably be looking for a mechanical / technical cause  
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 6:34 am

Quoting abba (Reply 4):
I for one would not subscribe to any "the pilot did it" theory before any technical reason has been put to rest

Do you know just how UTTERLY ridiculous an 'accident' scenario is? You have the flight path, the timing at hand off, the behavior of Malaysia, the incomplete hand off frequency read back, the deviation from flight path at the optimal time, no squak, the virtually simultaneous loss of comms etc...

It's not implausible...it's flat out laughable. Some of us have put this to rest with the utmost certainty. With absolutely zero doubt. Accused time and again of 'not keeping an open mind' as though this is some great shortcoming and egregious error. No SERIOUS pilots believe this to be an accident...or, if I'm incorrect about this, please present a semi-cogent argument as to why?
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 12:38 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 5):
I think it's time you presented a detailed scenario from beginning to end.

Yeah, no worries ... Which one would you like today?
Shoot down ...
Parallel realities ...
The Captain did it ...
The weirdest chain of mechanical failures ...
I can think up and flesh out any scenario you like; all I have to do is go back to some of the earlier threads here on A.net. But that wouldn't get us any further; it hasn't so far.
I might have to copyright some of those, though; they may turn out to be the next movie scripts.

Serious now ....
With the disappearance of MH370, most people have tried to explain what happened in terms of what they are familiar and comfortable with, i.e straight forward occurrences (if one can call them that). And so far it got us nowhere ...

Is it so unreasonable, then, to look a bit further, passed the 'normal' possibilities that have been discussed ad nauseam.
Should we look towards science, for example? What could they offer? Or maybe super-duper technology ....
What (little) do we know in those areas that might fit with the MH370 saga?

If we can assume that some of today's science and technology (especially military) may easily be twenty to forty years ahead of anything that the general public knows about, or is aware of, is it so unrealistic to assume that, by now, some such technology might exist and could have been used on or with MH370. It could be a completely unknown weapons system, for example, or, indeed, some fancy invisibility-technology, which they were sure of that it would work.
Would governments around the world tell the greater public of the world? NO; at least I reckon they wouldn't ...

Consider this ...
It is certain that in a few weeks or months time an asteroid is going to hit Earth, with guaranteed total destruction.
General opinion has it, at least in some quarters, that the powers-that-be would not tell the public; keep it secret.
The reason would be, however futile, to prevent utter panic and mayhem as long as possible.

In the case of MH370, is it possible that something so frightening and so worrying happened, that governments are not prepared to make the details, the full truth available to the public? Instead they may have agreed amongst themselves to come up with a half-plausible (invented) story.
It may well be a genuine attempt to 'protect' the general public, as they see it.

Taking the point into a slightly different direction, it may also be the view of governments, that the public has simply 'no-need-to-know' about many of the things that go on behind closed doors, including MH370.

So ... In the case of MH370, the question is still whether we are dealing with some straight-forward occurrence or are we dealing with something way beyond that..??
If the former is the case, we more or less have blind faith in our governments and fully trust their actions.
If the latter is the case, something might have happened to MH370 that governments simply don't want us to know.
Edit: It is this latter one that I consider an equal possibility.

If parallel universes or anything similarly outlandish has anything to do with the disappearance of MH370, would our governments tell us the truth?
You be the judge of that ....

[Edited 2015-05-18 05:44:57]
 
markalot
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 12:49 pm

So how does hacking a plane through the entertainment system fit into this discussion, if at all? Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

edit: it appears these are just claims so far, I see no actual evidence he accomplished what he said he did.

[Edited 2015-05-18 05:53:10]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/17/us/fbi...flight-computer-systems/index.html


[Edited 2015-05-18 05:53:59]
M a r k
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 1:03 pm

Quoting markalot (Reply 9):
Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

There's a thread on a.net. The claim has been thoroughly discredited.
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 1:13 pm

Quoting markalot (Reply 9):
? Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via
some in flight entertainment connection.

Do we really? Engineer Kicked Off UA Flight Hacked & Flew Plane. (by fxramper May 16 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 10):
There's a thread on a.net

There are several threads actually:

Hacker Says Phone App Could Hijack Plane (by concentriq Apr 11 2013 in Civil Aviation)
Computer Security Guy Pulled Off Flight By FBI (by nitepilot79 Apr 17 2015 in Civil Aviation)
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 6:59 pm

Quoting American 767 (Thread starter):

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those on board MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

And right after this post... explaining one of the first requests... we get this:

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
Who would have to be "in the know' about such an experiment?

Find a new hobby, may I suggest infowars forums?
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 18, 2015 7:02 pm

Quoting markalot (Reply 9):
Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

It is not possible, the security "expert" is someone making outlandish claims for media attention.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 2:08 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 8):
Which one would you like today?
Shoot down ...
Parallel realities ...
The Captain did it ...
The weirdest chain of mechanical failures ...
I can think up and flesh out any scenario you like;

Your chain of events. Your scenario.

The following was a simple question: "What is the one chain of events, right to the end, that you think happened to MH370? Where did it land? Who took it? Why? Etc."

It is clear that there is no 'most likely' scenario / chain of events (which there can only be one) in your mind  
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 8):
In the case of MH370, is it possible that something so frightening and so worrying happened, that governments are not prepared to make the details, the full truth available to the public?

Like Aliens took it?

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 8):
If parallel universes or anything similarly outlandish has anything to do with the disappearance of MH370, would our governments tell us the truth?

Only if E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial was a senior cabinet minister. It seemed pretty trustworthy 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 4:34 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
The day might come (sooner rather than later) when we, as a broad society, have to face realities which we are unfamiliar with at this stage; things we simply don't know about or don't (yet) want to know. The strange and total disappearance of MH370 may turn out to be one of those phenomenon which defy all rational explanations of our familiar world; instead the causes may have to do with exactly those unfamiliar realities.

But people prefer to stick with what they know and feel comfortable with; that's why they are looking for 'down to Earth' explanations

Because of the very universal and unavoidable law of gravity, "down to Earth" is where and only where we should be looking at. Now, unfortunately, most of the Earth is covered by a very deep water ocean opaque to all light waves, therefore we just haven't located the wreckage yet.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
That's why, anyone who dares to only mention anything that deviates just the slightest from the world we know, is laughed at, labelled as conspiracy theorist and the message, possibly valid, is drowned out in ridicule.

Why don't you just tell us straight that you believe that MH370 has fallen in alien 'hands' and has now left the Earth? Because, you know, gravity is a lie.

The MH370 disappearance can only ever get as strange as the human mind can get. And what happens in a brain can be really really strange. We all saw what can happen in a human brain with the German Wings crash. In my opinion nothing else besides pilot suicide/mass murder can explain MH370 with logical thinking. Evil pilot action also is an extremely strong Occam razor.
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 4:49 am

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 17):
In my opinion nothing else besides pilot suicide/mass murder can explain MH370 with logical thinking. Evil pilot action also is an extremely strong Occam razor.

Refreshing to see some fresh opinions on this thread, and ones rooted in sound logic. I appreciate your courage (whether you see it as such or not) in stating this belief...as it is the only plausible scenario.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 10:16 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 18):
Refreshing to see some fresh opinions on this thread, and ones rooted in sound logic. I appreciate your courage (whether you see it as such or not) in stating this belief...as it is the only plausible scenario.

Why does this need to be explained to every new poster claiming he knows the pilot did it. No one is denying this is a possibility, most are waiting for more information, facts, before claiming that this is what happened.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 10:25 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

Just. Make. It. Stop.

Quoting markalot (Reply 9):
Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

Yes, and fly the plane sideways!   
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 11:16 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 7):
Do you know just how UTTERLY ridiculous an 'accident' scenario is?

So what is you background to come up with such strong statements - truck driver??

I have seen competent people coming up with a technical scenario that was possible and other qualified people pointing out some major technical problems with the pilot did it theory. I know that I am not in a position to judge this matter. However, I have seen a little too many equally unqualified people on here believing that they are  
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 6):
Do you still think we would have known so quickly what happened to GermanWings if the plane was still missing more than a year later???

Quite a few, actually. Including medical history of mental illness, medical reports torn apart etc. I still need to see anything similar in this case. The best is still the idea of some particular mental illness hitting only Malaysian people - in this case an atheist - caused by the problems of an extremist Muslim politician who are working against the secular state. That is so far still the best motive for the pilot did it theory I have seen (even though I haven't read all posts....).

The pilot did it - as long as there are no strong indications pointing in this direction - is (if I may point to the most basic of scientific logic) difficult to handle as it is almost impossible to disprove. There is in fact extremely few things that cannot be explained in this way. The pilot did it theory is on the border of being "indisproveable". There seems to be only few things that could disprove it. And some of these things has been pointed out by competent people. I will leave it to you to go back and find these things.
 
oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 21):
So what is you background to come up with such strong statements - truck driver??

The elitism implicit in this comment is disgusting. And you are a professor, if my memory serves me correctly, which makes it all the more despicable and condescending.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 19):
Why does this need to be explained to every new poster claiming he knows the pilot did it. No one is denying this is a possibility, most are waiting for more information, facts, before claiming that this is what happened.

Where did I 'explain' anything. I applauded the courage to put forward a POV that had been widely derided and attacked on this forum DESPITE it being the only plausible scenario.

You can wait until hell freezes over to reach whatever conclusion you happen to arrive at. The NOK, however, would like answers sooner rather than later, and don't have the luxury of existing in a relatively 'painless' state, per MH370.

That you choose to deliberately frame the pilot did it as a 'possibility' speaks directly to your disinterest in the actual truth.      
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 22):
Where did I 'explain' anything. I applauded the courage to put forward a POV that had been widely derided and attacked on this forum DESPITE it being the only plausible scenario.

You can wait until hell freezes over to reach whatever conclusion you happen to arrive at. The NOK, however, would like answers sooner rather than later, and don't have the luxury of existing in a relatively 'painless' state, per MH370.

That you choose to deliberately frame the pilot did it as a 'possibility' speaks directly to your disinterest in the actual truth.      

Well anyone stating with 100% certainty that the pilot did it needs to have it explained to them. The only posters that seem to be closed to a new idea are those that are certain they know it was the pilot. You cannot improve safety by making recommendations when you are not certain of the facts. We can see this with the interim report, they did not rule out anything, but they did not point fingers either.
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 22):
The elitism implicit in this comment is disgusting. And you are a professor, if my memory serves me correctly, which makes it all the more despicable and condescending.


You and all the other people who want to keep this thread going are just pathetic. No news but, yet, you have to
go on and on. For what reason? Nothing new, just the same people without a life reiterating the same bile as in numerous posts before. Just go outside and look at real life. Time to stop the utterances of inane people that just want to make this topic reach the 100+ threads. Disgusting that this topic has been allowed to carry on for so long. Still, maybe some of you will become famous for being right. So sad and worthless like your lives IMHO.
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oxymorph
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Tue May 19, 2015 10:47 pm

Quoting SoJo (Reply 24):
You and all the other people who want to keep this thread going are just pathetic.

So we are. What concern is it of yours?

Quoting SoJo (Reply 24):
Still, maybe some of you will become famous for being right.

That is the objective of no one on this thread

Quoting SoJo (Reply 24):
ust go outside and look at real life.

I wingsuit, so I've got that part covered. LOL.

Oh, and you were the poster that said "I hate how some people are hanging Zaharie out to dry". It's important that your agenda be transparent. Cheers

[Edited 2015-05-19 16:26:08]
 
pliersinsight
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 2:20 am

Now that this discussion has sufficiently slowed, I'm putting my $5 on the table:

When they find the CVR it will end before anything interesting happens, sans maybe the sound of breakers being pulled. If they find the FDR, there will be no useful data.

If there are any sounds on the CVR, it will just be the drone of engines, wind noise, and nothing more until fuel exhaustion and impact.

And the beat to all the theories on 80+ threads will continue to go on.

To loosely apply Hunter S. Thompson, The scenario is too rare to comprehend and the speculation is too weird to die.
 
abba
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 6:04 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 22):
The elitism implicit in this comment is disgusting. And you are a professor, if my memory serves me correctly, which makes it all the more despicable and condescending.

I am not a professor. But that fact does not prevent me from highly appreciate and admire people who really know their field well. To come up with scenarios that explain what could had happened of a technical nature and to see indications in what we know for sure that at least are indicating that it is not likely that "the pilot did it" presupposes deep knowledge and understating of the systems and the design of the 777 - knowledge and understanding I readily admit not possessing.

Now, for you to claim with something approaching 100% certainty that any other theory than "the pilot did it" can be ruled out - without there being even the slightest of on ground evidence of suicidal tendencies from the investigations into the background of the pilots (save for the political - mental illness one, that to the best of my knowledge (and that field I do know something about) is nothing but speculative and plain nonsense and at its core deeply racist) - is either stupidity or hubris unless, of cause, you actually do have the qualifications to credibly evaluate the posts written by the true experts on this forum. However, that you have yet to demonstrate.
 
mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 6:40 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 6):
Do you still think we would have known so quickly what happened to GermanWings if the plane was still missing more than a year later??? Seriously.

Well, if that aircraft is still missing, based on the data we have, deliberate action would be very high on the list as the data we had while the aircraft was still covered showed something which made deliberate action extremely likely.
However, that is because we have data before it went missing, including vertical data... below 10,000ft. If the data disappeared before it reached 10,000, then decompression would also be high on the list.
MH370 is a tad harder on the evidence front. We don't have anything to indicate what may have happened, instead, people are trying to construct probable chain of events based on the fact that certain information is missing.

Quoting markalot (Reply 9):
So how does hacking a plane through the entertainment system fit into this discussion, if at all? Now we know it's possible to somehow control the engines via some in flight entertainment connection.

No need to hack through the IFE. You can go to the satcom directly, and create the impression if went south... It is theoretically possible (some work on the calculations still being done)... but then, some will just say this is trying to protect the captain's reputation... well, who's to say the Captain's not in the game too if it went elsewhere?   

Quoting abba (Reply 21):
The pilot did it - as long as there are no strong indications pointing in this direction - is (if I may point to the most basic of scientific logic) difficult to handle as it is almost impossible to disprove.

It cannot be disproved. However, there are questions that need to be answered, but some advocates of the theory have so far failed to come up with answers to some questions based on evidence, therefore it cannot be proved, but cannot be disproved either (although attacking and ridiculing others who have a differing opinion is despicable behaviour). The accident theorists have data to back up the possibility, but also cannot explain what happened after the plane finally disappeared. Both theories have equal weight. To question the other theory is logical, and each theory should be refined... however, calling the other names, deragotary terms and remarks, etc, is simply breaking the rules of this place. I question the other theory and showing weaknesses that need to be worked on has been called as "strawman" and stonewalling... they need to show better ability in a discussion otherwise we're just talking to stone walls with insulting graffiti aimed at us.

Quoting abba (Reply 21):
I still need to see anything similar in this case.

Oh the "pilot did it" theorists will gladly point you to and endless list of facebook posts...   
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 7:22 am

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 17):
Evil pilot action also is an extremely strong Occam razor.

It is actually important to be aware where the Occam's razor principle (that is not proving anything but only indicating what the most likely explanation might be) is strong and where that principle weakens. The Occam's razor principle is strong when we are dealing with common occurrences taking place in simple systems. The reason for that is what the principle says, namely that the most simple explanation is usually the correct one. The first problem is that the very term "usually" do not make much sense in relation to occurrences which are not "usual".

To quote an example: The tire on the car is flat. Of possible explanations a) It has a screw in it and b) A serial tire-flattener came through the neighbor and sliced the tire open, explanation "a" is more likely.

The reason why it makes sense to use the Occam's razor principle in this case is that the event "a flat tire on a car" is a common occurrence in relation to which it makes sense to use the "most likely" predication. The principle does not exclude that scenario b) might - even if only very rarely - be true. And the principle says nothing more than that.

Secondly, when you are dealing with complex systems - and an airplane qualifies as such - things become much more complicated. In such a situation we might well say that the most simple explanation is the most common one. But that is not to say that it is the most likely one relative to all other possible explanations. That is so because in complex systems there are so many - each on its own perhaps extremely unlikely - explanations that they combined outweigh the most - on its own - common and simple one.

We see this well illustrated in aviation. "The pilot did it intentionally" is in most cases the most simple explanation of an accident (in particular if we limit the amount of data to what we have in this case). However, we know as a fact that this - the most simple - explanation is not usually the case. On its own it might be the most common reason for aviation disasters. But usually air plans do not fall out of the sky as a result of a pilot's intentional action. In most aviation disasters it prove to be one or another extremely rare and highly unlikely explanation that is true: One that is never seen before - nor later. In aviation (and in other similar complex systems) the most likely explanation is actually NOT the most simple one - relative to all other explanations. Rather it is one extremely complex and unlikely one.

To put it simply: The Occam's razor principle works well in relation to common events that takes place in simple systems. Dealing we rare events that takes place in complex systems the principle looses its value.  

[Edited 2015-05-20 00:46:27]
 
abba
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 7:59 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 28):
Oh the "pilot did it" theorists will gladly point you to and endless list of facebook posts..

Sure. I have seen that. Usually in combination with certain psychological and cultural speculations.....  
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 12:38 pm

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 17):
Why don't you just tell us straight that you believe that MH370 has fallen in alien 'hands' and has now left the Earth?

Why do I get the feeling that this question is oozing with sarcasm?
Let me give you a genuine answer anyway ....
I would if I could, if only I had facts and evidence to make statements of that nature.
Unfortunately, just like you, the only information on MH370 I have access to is what we, the general public, are allowed to know; as decided by those who know more, possibly a great deal more.

And speaking of statements, here is one for all ....
I am sorry if I may have offended anyone with my Replies #1 and #8.
Please accept my apologies.
If you read those replies carefully, though, you may have noticed that I posed questions; I didn’t make statements.
I also don’t think that I came up with airy-fairy theories or statements to that effect.
If my asking questions has offended anyone, I’m sorry for that.

The underlying reasons for my questions are probably altogether different then what may have been assumed here.
I was pondering Mandala499’s Reply 79/705, especially two or three of his lines.
And I quote selectively:
The "Pilot did it" theorists cannot explain the logon at 1825, or why the satcom was switched off... Some, decided to ignore it completely.
The "it's an accident" theorists, cannot explain why the airplane went towards where it did for so long.
Discussions aimed at bringing up the various theories into a more coherent and presentable chain of events, in order for both to get somewhere, has been booed down by extremists of both theories (as they do not want the other theory from gaining any ground)... which is, utterly sad... or disgusting...
End of quote.

For one thing, it illustrates again the frustration with all this. Unless 9M-MRO is found or we have something else more tangible, the disappearance of MH370 will soon be forgotten; and that would be a shame.

Looking at it from that perspective, I asked myself if one should not consider other possibilities. That’s when I came across the article I was referring to and, to me personally, it sounded unlikely but by no means totally unbelievable.
After all, science & technology are working on all sorts of projects now that were science fiction only a few years back; and that is what we know about. With that in mind I asked my questions.
If people like B747400ERF were so seriously offended by that, then, I’m sorry.

In a last, small stand of defiance, let me ask you this:
Whilst some theories seem to tick a few more boxes than others, none of them are sound enough to be acceptable; and certainly not acceptable as the only likely chain of events that led to the disappearance of MH370.
Is it so outrageous, then, to pose the question (not make a statement) whether we should broaden the discussion?
Who knows what some might be thinking here but dare not mentioning it, lest they offend someone.
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 12:54 pm

[quote=abba,reply=29]
Your thoughts on Occam's Razor are very interesting and definitely apply to matters involving MH370.
To quote one of our radio personalities:
You deserve a Koala-Stamp for that!
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 12:54 pm

Sad to see the thread about MH370 is now a sort of battlefield where the craziest science fiction theories fight with the most logical explanations to this terrible loss of many souls. After several months not reading this threads I had the hope of new useful information, the development of a consolidated theory about the most probable scenario with the bcak up of the best known members who usually enlighted us with technical background.... but I see that's not the case...  
Just sad...

Rgds.

G.
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YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 1:32 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 33):
the craziest science fiction theories

What exactly are you referring to, here?

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 33):
the most logical explanations

Which ones are they?
 
markalot
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 2:14 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 1):
To cut to the chase and make the same point again but a little more considered:
Is it possible that the disappearance of MH370 is the result of an experiment gone wrong?
In other words, is it possible that 9M-MRO does no longer exist in the reality of our world but, as the result of an experiment gone seriously wrong, is it now in another reality? Wherever or however that reality may exist, if it does.

Just in case you don't understand the hubbub. The quote above pretty much disqualifies your viewpoint from the discussion. Entertaining, but not grounded in reality. It makes you appear to be in a fantasy land of some sort. My opinion, sorry if it offends you, just making it clear.

If MH370 vanished without a trace, with no pings, with no radar contact, just poof, then something like that would seem ever so slightly less insane, but still insane. The plane is not in some alternate dimension. it wasn't abducted by aliens, and Elvis's brain is not being held for ransom on planet Zort.

This is why I insist my son take physics in high school. You need to be grounded in reality and go from there. The best explanation, and one that still has problems, is that the pilot flew the plane somewhere where he knew it would be very difficult to find. I don't understand why, and I'm not 100% convinced in the theory, but it's the best one going.
M a r k
 
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Wed May 20, 2015 4:38 pm

Seems the authorities are giving serious consideration to expanding the search area since they are over 3/4 of the way through searching the area designated as the "most probable" where the plane came down.

Investigators hunting for missing Flight MH370 have widened their ocean floor search to a larger zone and don’t know where else to focus if the jet can’t be found there, authorities announced Wednesday.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/missing-m...-not-possible-know-where-look-next

I'm thinking if they don't find it in the original 23k square mile "probable" area then they need to go back and start anew by re-analyzing all of the evidence, and maybe even with a fresh set of eyes. For all the expert opinions as to what the Inmarsat signals indicated it's obvious that the "experts" may have been wrong, or at least not quite right.
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Thu May 21, 2015 6:47 am

Quoting pliersinsight (Reply 26):

When they find the CVR it will end before anything interesting happens, sans maybe the sound of breakers being pulled. If they find the FDR, there will be no useful data.

wishful thinking to find the boxes, since it went down somewhere in the middle of the vast ocean, even finding a piece of wreckage would be a miracle. But if they do find the boxes, wouldn't they be too damaged to have readable information by now? this tragedy should have forced airlines to fit satellite tracking on every long haul airplane so something like this does not happen again.
 
pliersinsight
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Thu May 21, 2015 12:56 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 37):

Quoting pliersinsight (Reply 26):

When they find the CVR it will end before anything interesting happens, sans maybe the sound of breakers being pulled. If they find the FDR, there will be no useful data.

wishful thinking to find the boxes, since it went down somewhere in the middle of the vast ocean, even finding a piece of wreckage would be a miracle. But if they do find the boxes, wouldn't they be too damaged to have readable information by now? this tragedy should have forced airlines to fit satellite tracking on every long haul airplane so something like this does not happen again.

My money is that it is all at the bottom of the Diamantina Fracture Zone...interesting how all the tracks lead to one of the deepest trenches in the Indian ocean. Of course, anything beyond that interesting fact would be speculation I suppose.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Thu May 21, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 37):
But if they do find the boxes, wouldn't they be too damaged to have readable information by now?

AF447's recorders were perfectly readable after 2 years submersion.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sat May 23, 2015 1:13 am

Quoting pliersinsight (Reply 38):
My money is that it is all at the bottom of the Diamantina Fracture Zone...interesting how all the tracks lead to one of the deepest trenches in the Indian ocean. Of course, anything beyond that interesting fact would be speculation I suppose.

You may very well be correct.

For some time I have considered the idea that if it was somebody's intention to make the plane difficult to find then it would not take much effort at all to learn where the deepest parts of the ocean in the area you intend to take the plane are and then ditch the plane there.

Such information can easily be found in a matter of just seconds on the internet, including exact coordinates:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamantina_Deep

""It is located about 1,125 km west-southwest of Perth at 35°S and 104°E and has been measured at 8,047 m (26,401 ft) deep.""


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamantina_Fracture_Zone

""On the western side of the Diamantina Fracture Zone at 33°30′S 101°20′E is another, larger pit, named Dordrecht Hole,[2] with a north-south extent of 50 km. Its maximum depth is 7079 m at 33.42°S 101.48°E.""



I really hope that the plane did not ditch there and is in one of the locations in which recovery would be the 'least difficult' if even possible at all.
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kurtjeter
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 1:17 am

I don't have any theories, just a question--about a crash long ago. KAL 007 . . . . my understanding is that it was determined pretty accurately where the A/C ended up. Also my understanding that little, if any, wreckage was found, and few bodies were found? I ask simply to raie the issue about the total absence of any debris found yet from MH 370. If it could--and did--happen with KAL 007, what does this imply about MH?
Again, I'm not theorizing, and I'm certainly not a KAL 007 conspiracy buff. Just wondering about "lack of debris."
Thanks.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 1:43 am

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 41):
KAL 007
Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 41):
Also my understanding that little, if any, wreckage was found, and few bodies were found?
Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 41):
Just wondering about "lack of debris."

Perhaps our Russian members are the most qualified to answer that?   
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ltbewr
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 2:28 am

I am concerned, like many, that at some point the Australians, PRC, Malaysia, insurers and others in the search will make a decision to end it. With no evidence in the search areas and limits on costs by insurers and governments, after a while it may be the most reasonable decision to end the search, just declare the loss, pay out compensation. Even the PRC, who lost many lives in this loss, will agree that there are financial and practical limits on the search.
Yes, we do want to find the answers of what happened if possible, recover the bodies for proper burial but there have been a few 100 aircraft crashes/losses, especially over the oceans that were never searched for or ever could be due to limited ability to do so at the time it happened. Since in part the likely locations are so deep and isolated, the lack of detail as the most likely location where this flight ended up, and after a huge search has yielded nothing so far, one as to make decisions. Yes, like many, I want this plane found, but I also recognize at some point without any signs of it, there may be the need to end the search.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 2:40 am

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 41):
I don't have any theories, just a question--about a crash long ago. KAL 007 . . . . my understanding is that it was determined pretty accurately where the A/C ended up. Also my understanding that little, if any, wreckage was found, and few bodies were found? I ask simply to raie the issue about the total absence of any debris found yet from MH 370. If it could--and did--happen with KAL 007, what does this imply about MH?
Again, I'm not theorizing, and I'm certainly not a KAL 007 conspiracy buff. Just wondering about "lack of debris."
Thanks.

Actually the best comparison would be the disappearance of PP-VLU, a Varig Cargo 707 which was lost in 1979 on a flight from NRT-LAX-GIG & has not been found to this day. Not even a single piece of wreckage.

Just goes to show how the big ocean can hide many secrets and the fact that the moment ACARS system shut down was the moment the plane got transported back to 1979 technologically in terms of tracking.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 2:44 am

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 43):
I am concerned, like many, that at some point the Australians, PRC, Malaysia, insurers and others in the search will make a decision to end it.
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 43):
Yes, like many, I want this plane found, but I also recognize at some point without any signs of it, there may be the need to end the search.

I fully agree with you.

I too am concerned that the search will be called off and consequently the greatest aviation mystery ever will remain an unsolved mystery.

Having said that, it would not surprise me one bit if the search was called off - I'm guessing after the search of the extended priority area. Since the authorities have already announced that they will double the search area if the plane has not been found after the search of the initial priority area has been completed, I have a feeling they will keep their word on that. However, I have a feeling that will be the end of the search if nothing is found as that will put the search beyond 2 years since the plane went missing. Australia has the least interest in MH370 between Australia, Malaysia and China and has more important things to throw money at.

However, given that Chinese nationals made up a majority of the pax, and the way the Chinese economy is strengthening, I can see China being the last nation to pull out - I mean - If Australia and Malaysia cut funding and pull out I see a slight possibility of China going it alone, but who knows for how long.

Let's hope it doesn't get to that stage and 9M-MRO is found soon. In reality, as long as the search is continuing, good news could come at any time.
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mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 4:55 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 44):
Just goes to show how the big ocean can hide many secrets and the fact that the moment ACARS system shut down was the moment the plane got transported back to 1979 technologically in terms of tracking.

This MH370 should be a wake up call to the industry. It's a shame that smaller aircraft has satellite tracking system that's on all the time using the DC system (it's always ON, low power, no CB, powers off the DC than the AC)... and many big planes don't have these systems...
The free tracking service offered by Inmarsat using "existing systems" won't help in another case of MH370. And the industry prefer the big glamorous gadgets... which needs the AC system to power it, and again, won't help with MH370 coz the power set up would be identical.

And people need to realize this and also that on current systems, as you said, once ACARS gets shut down, we are back to 1979 or even pre-1979... where planes CAN and DO go missing.

People who cannot accept planes these days can still go missing need to pressure the industry for basic tracking for the purpose of never losing another plane for hours, and nothing more. Keep it simple.
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rwessel
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 4:57 am

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 41):

I don't have any theories, just a question--about a crash long ago. KAL 007 . . . . my understanding is that it was determined pretty accurately where the A/C ended up. Also my understanding that little, if any, wreckage was found, and few bodies were found? I ask simply to raie the issue about the total absence of any debris found yet from MH 370. If it could--and did--happen with KAL 007, what does this imply about MH?

The wreckage of the aircraft was found about four days after the crash, by the Soviets. They had divers on the wreck a couple of weeks later. Small pieces were recovered on the surface, and a large debris field (largely of small pieces) was found on the seafloor. The Soviets promptly retrieved the black boxes, and then engaged in a deliberate operation to misdirect SAR by other nations.

And before some of that side's partisans jump on me, Boris Yeltsin release a fair number of internal documents from the event.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 8:08 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 40):
For some time I have considered the idea that if it was somebody's intention to make the plane difficult to find then it would not take much effort at all to learn where the deepest parts of the ocean in the area you intend to take the plane are and then ditch the plane there.

  

If the crash was foul play (which is not proven but perhaps the most likely scenario) I also believe that the intent was to take it to the hardest-to-find place. All evidence points that way, turning of tracking, flying long and not crashing immediately, etc.

Also, if the perpetrator wanted to make the plane hard to find and thought about the topic logically, he or she would not place it exactly on the deepest coordinates as found from the Internet. But rather somewhere in the area.

What's the location of the most fractured but deep part of the Indian Ocean? Deep isn't necessarily the only goal here.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 40):
I really hope that the plane did not ditch there and is in one of the locations in which recovery would be the 'least difficult' if even possible at all.

I'm not optimistic about your hope. Is the current search area covering the deepest places?
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Sun May 24, 2015 1:41 pm

Where is the Aircraft...wouldn't debris be visible at sometime if it was destroyed or is it on land someplace.
That would be question 1, thereafter what caused it .
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 25, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 48):
Is the current search area covering the deepest places?

Not really.

After comparing a depth chart to the current / extended search area, it looks as if only the most Northern / Eastern part of the search arc (when then extends South / West) is close to some of the very deep spots.
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 KUL-PEK Missing - Part 80

Mon May 25, 2015 4:00 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 48):
If the crash was foul play (which is not proven but perhaps the most likely scenario) I also believe that the intent was to take it to the hardest-to-find place.

If it was foul play, then the plane landed somewhere else, and everyone and its dog has been taken for a ride. The best way to make it "disappear" is to lead everyone to false places on false data.

I for one don't believe for a second that the Aircraft was lost by radar.... that T7 is a REALLY BIG SUCKER.... and if t went down on a very treacheous ocean, I can't also believe there are no debris at all....

We are still going circles, my money is on agencias with some letters (THEY MUST KNOW)...why? I don't even want to know...

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.

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