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zeke
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 9:30 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 31):
I actually see the 78J winning this. It is, as mentioned in other threads, a CASM killer, and I am shocked at how few orders it has.

So is the 737............apparently.

The old adage.....if something is too good to be true, it probably is.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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EPA001
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 10:27 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 43):
Except perhaps that all 140 on order are due to be delivered before their first example's 12th birthday

And TC has made several statements about him wanting more A380's for EK if the airports in de Dubai could accommodate them.  .

As for this topic, this statement regarding the status of the B77W in EK's fleet is no news at all. Except maybe for NAV30 who always maintained that the B777-9X was to replace the A380's, which of course was never true.
 
parapente
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 10:39 am

Reply 45
I agree but I think there is more there. Right now I count two non-stop destinations for EK in Latin America a region with 580 Million people where nearly two dozen countries are growing in population greater than the world average. These destinations are long and low-yielding from DXB but its really their last tapped region. In 10-years time is it that hard to believe they will have 8-10 destinations in the region with the help of the 778?

Was thinking exactly the same thing.Mexico,Central america and of course South America (particularly the latter).There is some real low hanging fruit there and such an aircraft would be perfect.
This is where IAG may become less 'pleased' as I imagine this is what they want Madrid to become. Mind you Madrid will service Europe,Russia,Med basin perfectly well.But can't really see it competing further South and East against Dubai.
Re the 778's.Would New Zealand's 2 major cities be a good place for them too?
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 1:47 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 31):
I actually see the 78J winning this. It is, as mentioned in other threads, a CASM killer, and I am shocked at how few orders it has.
Quoting zeke (Reply 50):
So is the 737............apparently.
The old adage.....if something is too good to be true, it probably is.

Two years in, it has almost as many orders as the A350-1000 does nine years in and nobody (serious) is doubting how good the A350-1000 is going to be.

As astuteman observed in Reply 43, "It's a marathon, not a sprint" and I fully expect that the 787-10 and A350-1000 will become very successful members of their respective families as availability improves.
 
jacobin777
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 2:10 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 50):
Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 31):
I actually see the 78J winning this. It is, as mentioned in other threads, a CASM killer, and I am shocked at how few orders it has.

So is the 737............apparently.

The old adage.....if something is too good to be true, it probably is

"“If it’s identically configured, the -10 has a little bit of an edge on the -900,” Udvar-Hazy, 67, chief executive officer of Air Lease Corp., told reporters today at the Paris Air Show after the company agreed to buy 30 of the planes. “The -900 has a little more range, but this has lower fuel burn.” "

"“I think they are both (B787-10 & A359XWB) going to be very successful because they bring down the economic cost to the airlines significantly on a per-seat basis,” Udvar-Hazy said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...boeing-787-10-beats-airbus-on-fuel
"Up the Irons!"
 
tortugamon
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 2:13 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 43):
Only 3 orders for ANA since the launch commitments were firmed up.

If the large order for EK comes in I think that will pretty much sell out the 787-10 line until the second half of 2022. I don't know many airlines that are willing to wait that long. If the EK order does not come in then I am also sem-surprised that we have not had a few more orders at this point.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 47):
In 10-years time is it that hard to believe they will have 8-10 destinations in the region with the help of the 778?
That depends on how you define the region. If it is Mexico on south... 8-10 is possible. If you exclude Mexico/central America... I would say 8-10 is unlikely. I expect a few more flights to South America though. If you mean 8 to 10 flights per day, that is certain if Brazil would allow.

Yes, I mean 8-10 daily flights. Right now I believe they serve only GIG and GRU non-stop. I could envision EK service to MEX, CUN, BOG, SCL, LIM, EZE (non-stop), PTY and maybe BSB, SJU, CCS, CNF and SSA. Through the extra destinations and adding an additional frequencies to A380 destinations like GIG and GRU and high cargo routes / new routes in the Western USA I could see the 778 being very helpful in the Americas.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 48):
They are taking 16 A380 this year and similar numbers the next years. It will perhaps not be all 140 frames by mid 2020 but there will not be many left undelivered.

It will be very impressive if they can keep up that delivery schedule. I was under the assumption they were taking 12/year in recent years.

Quoting parapente (Reply 52):
Was thinking exactly the same thing.Mexico,Central america and of course South America (particularly the latter).There is some real low hanging fruit there and such an aircraft would be perfect.

And I imagine their name recognition isn't too bad down there with all of their soccer/football sponsorships.

tortugamon

[Edited 2015-05-19 07:23:32]
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 2:14 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 54):
"“If it’s identically configured, the -10 has a little bit of an edge on the -900,”

However, the -10 and -900 will not be identically configured in real life.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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neutrino
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 2:51 pm

Quoting chrisnh (Reply 3):

I would like one of the old 777-300ERs as a lawn ornament, please.

Is your lawn only that big for just one?
Maybe you will need a couple...or a bunch of 'em lovelies.

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 36):
Or better yet. The GE - 90 - 115B engines.

Since its going to be just ornamental, how about slapping on another two of those monsters?
A four-holer 77W will certainly be a sight to orgas....airplane porn at its climax!
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 2:57 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 46):
I don't recall there being a minimum number requirement...

There's a big difference between one route that sort of works because of unique circumstances and 8+ routes that are planned as though they are just additional spokes.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 46):
You're saying that as if it somehow makes the logistics any less difficult relative to typical (i.e. shorter) longhauls.

Well, it means you can use a mainstream aircraft like the 77W, 359, or 789 without difficulty. These days, I think of "ULH" as any route that routinely challenges those aircraft.
 
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zeke
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:01 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 54):

My observations is simply you cannot believe anything that points to an excessive advantage for one airframe over another of the same vintage, they are built with very similar performace. The 737 example I described Boeing claims to have an 8 % advantage over the A320 neo, the market does not seem to agree with that.

Where is the 787-10 and its engine ? During the 787 development did the performance at entry reflect what was claimed at launch ? Not being critical, just a realistic observation.

I would submit that performance is a factor in the decision, however it may not be the deciding factor. For example, this is the same good ole USA that is sending some very mixed messages to Middle East airlines, purchase our products, but you are not welcome to use those products to compete with our domestic carriers.

On the flip side, if the Middle East carriers were able to convince policy makers they are good for competition, good for consumers, good for domestic manufacturers, they might just associate a large order with a green light to open another 30 citiy pairs which may have an intedmidate stops in Asia, Pacific, and Europe.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:19 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
Where is the 787-10 and its engine ? During the 787 development did the performance at entry reflect what was claimed at launch ? Not being critical, just a realistic observation.

The first 787-10 will be built and flown in 2017. The Trent TEN (which would be EK's engine) is doing very well in ground tests and will fly on RR's testbed soon. The 787-10 is a simple stretch of the 787-9, which (very much unlike its smaller sibling) exceeded its performance targets from the start. Based on the 787-9's actual performance in testing, Boeing slightly increased the 787-10's nominal range. At this point there is very little risk for the 787-10.

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
For example, this is the same good ole USA that is sending some very mixed messages to Middle East airlines, purchase our products, but you are not welcome to use those products to compete with our domestic carriers.

That tends to argue in favor of a Boeing order -- the ME3's large Boeing order book serves as a very effective political counterweight to the US3 agitation. That said, I still think the decision will be based on the merits. These aircraft don't need the extra range of the A350-900, but they could use the extra capacity of the 787-10. Thus I think Boeing comes in with an advantage and Airbus would need very good pricing to win the order.
 
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 55):
It will be very impressive if they can keep up that delivery schedule. I was under the assumption they were taking 12/year in recent years.

They took 12 frames in 2013 and 2014. In 2015 12 frames were planed, but Emirates took 4 slots assigned to Amedeo in 2015. I think for 2016 17 frames are planned.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:39 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 54):
"“If it’s identically configured, the -10 has a little bit of an edge on the -900,” Udvar-Hazy, 67, chief executive officer of Air Lease Corp., told reporters...
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 56):
However, the -10 and -900 will not be identically configured in real life.

True, as the 787-10 can accommodate more passengers and cargo (by volume).
 
jacobin777
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:41 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 56):
Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 54):
"“If it’s identically configured, the -10 has a little bit of an edge on the -900,”

However, the -10 and -900 will not be identically configured in real life.

I would think the B787-10 is going to have a higher seat count (semi-random guess). Of course, it will depend on the various carriers and I don't have the floor area so I may indeed be off as to which plane could have a higher theoretical seat count.



Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
My observations is simply you cannot believe anything that points to an excessive advantage for one airframe over another of the same vintage, they are built with very similar performace. The 737 example I described Boeing claims to have an 8 % advantage over the A320 neo, the market does not seem to agree with that.

To be honest, I wasn't comparing the B73X to the A32X..both have their strong and weak points and the sale of either depends on a number of factors which you know about.

I was simply providing Hazy's quote. Of course, both planes will be excellent for their respective carriers.

The reasoning of my quote was based on "all things being equal" which many times they aren't.

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
I would submit that performance is a factor in the decision, however it may not be the deciding factor.

Agree, mentioned it above.

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
. For example, this is the same good ole USA that is sending some very mixed messages to Middle East airlines, purchase our products, but you are not welcome to use those products to compete with our domestic carriers.

I agree here as well but this does favor Boeing. I've been quite vocal against the U.S.-3's attempt at trying to stop the ME3.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 60):
That tends to argue in favor of a Boeing order --

  
"Up the Irons!"
 
tortugamon
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:46 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
My observations is simply you cannot believe anything that points to an excessive advantage for one airframe over another of the same vintage, they are built with very similar performace.

Its not an excessive advantage. The A330 and the 777 aren't too different in age but the A333 is lighter and operators did not need all of the capability of the 77E and as a result the A333 sold well. I see this situation as similar.

The A359s empennage, fuse, wing, and engines are all larger and heavier on the A359 vs the 787 but the 787 will seat more in most configurations. A more efficient engine cannot make up for all of that additional weight.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 61):
They took 12 frames in 2013 and 2014. In 2015 12 frames were planed, but Emirates took 4 slots assigned to Amedeo in 2015. I think for 2016 17 frames are planned.

Gotcha, thanks. It will be interesting to see if they are able to absorb that much capacity in one year without loads dropping through the floor. If any airline can....

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 63):
I would think the B787-10 is going to have a higher seat count (semi-random guess).

As both aircraft tend to be 9-abreast in Y the 787-10s longer cabin should result in a higher seat count vs the A359 if similarly configured.

tortugamon
 
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neutrino
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 3:58 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 61):
but Emirates took 4 slots assigned to Amedeo in 2015

So what's happening to Amedeo's order? Will it be adios amigo?
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 4:07 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 61):
They took 12 frames in 2013 and 2014. In 2015 12 frames were planed, but Emirates took 4 slots assigned to Amedeo in 2015. I think for 2016 17 frames are planned.

Based on this list, Emirates took delivery of 13 A380s in 2013 and 2014 and will take 16 this year.

For 2016, the reliable non-EK deliveries are: 2 OZ, 3 EY, 2 QR, and 1 BA. Unless QF or Amedeo agree to take some that year, Timmy is going to have 22 whales dumped on his front porch.

Quoting neutrino (Reply 65):
So what's happening to Amedeo's order? Will it be adios amigo?
Looking increasingly that way, since they can't seem to be find any lessees for their frames.
 
tortugamon
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 4:28 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 66):
Timmy is going to have 22 whales dumped on his front porch.

If you count the individual planes that have notes indicating they are planned for delivery in 2016 there are actually 23 (including #234 but #232 says 2017 so there could be an error).

38 A380s in two years really is unfathomable to me. That is more A380s than currently in operation in any other continent accept Asia.

tortugamon
 
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zeke
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 4:55 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
The A330 and the 777 aren't too different in age but the A333 is lighter and operators did not need all of the capability of the 77E and as a result the A333 sold well. I see this situation as similar.

The A330 is the best part of 1 tonne per hour less fuel to a 77E, real airlines dont fly around 100% LFs either.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
The A359s empennage, fuse, wing, and engines are all larger and heavier on the A359 vs the 787 but the 787 will seat more in most configurations. A more efficient engine cannot make up for all of that additional weight.

As you pointed out on the thread the other day, the A359 burns less block fuel and less fuel per area than the 787-10. Why is it all of a sudden burning more fuel ?

As I keep reminding people, if the 787-10 even allows 2-3 extra rows (which I dont subscribe to), at normal load factors even by EK standards, they will be empty most of the time.

If the seats are full most of the time, the aircraft is too small, then the A350-1000 is the answer.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 68):
As I keep reminding people, if the 787-10 even allows 2-3 extra rows (which I dont subscribe to), at normal load factors even by EK standards, they will be empty most of the time.

If the seats are full most of the time, the aircraft is too small, then the A350-1000 is the answer.

In other words... if the A350-900 would be full all the time, there's no need to upgrade to the 787-10, but if the 787-10 would be full all the time, the airline should upgrade to the A350-1000.   

I also don't know why you "don't subscribe" to the idea that the 787-10 will allow 2 more rows of Economy (or 1 of business) than the A350-1000... the cabin is a bit more than 2 rows of Economy longer.

[Edited 2015-05-19 09:59:20]
 
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zeke
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 5:07 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 69):
I also don't know why you "don't subscribe" to the idea that the 787-10 will allow 2 more rows of Economy (or 1 of business) than the A350-1000... the cabin is a bit more than 2 rows of Economy longer.

The realistic seat configuration I would see an airline adopting will have the seats in the premium classes placed relative to the door positions and galleys as a divider, so I would expect both additional premium and economy, not just economy relative to the 787-9.

That is why I do not subscribe to the idea of 3 more rows of economy when there is effectively plugs either side of the wing.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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neutrino
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 5:09 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 69):
In other words... if the A350-900 would be full all the time, there's no need to upgrade to the 787-10, but if the 787-10 would be full all the time, the airline should upgrade to the A350-1000.   

I also don't know why you "don't subscribe" to the idea that the 787-10 will allow 2 more rows of Economy (or 1 of business) than the A350-1000... the cabin is a bit more than 2 rows of Economy longer.

Does the word biased ring a bell?
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 5:12 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 70):
The realistic seat configuration I would see an airline adopting will have the seats in the premium classes placed relative to the door positions and galleys as a divider, so I would expect both additional premium and economy, not just economy relative to the 787-9.

Some airlines do that, some don't. There are plenty of widebody operators out there who divide the business and economy cabins at a place other than a door, whether by putting in a mid-cabin galley or just putting in a bulkhead. The key point is that there is extra longitudinal space in the 787-10 (which comes partly at the cost of narrower Economy seats, but EK has never cared about that) that can be used however the airline sees fit.
 
tortugamon
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 5:29 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 68):
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
The A359s empennage, fuse, wing, and engines are all larger and heavier on the A359 vs the 787 but the 787 will seat more in most configurations. A more efficient engine cannot make up for all of that additional weight.
As you pointed out on the thread the other day, the A359 burns less block fuel and less fuel per area than the 787-10. Why is it all of a sudden burning more fuel ?

That was for a 6knm mission. The average A333 mission is 2knm and on the shorter legs is where the A359 weight plays a larger (negative) role.

Also, that fuel burn I quoted was per m2 of cabin area. The 787-10 will have more seats per m2 of cabin area as a function of the narrower cabin and identical Y configuration (9-abreast).

SUH has been quoted above saying that they 781 has lower fuel burn and he is slightly better informed than me  

tortugamon
 
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Tue May 19, 2015 5:35 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 72):
There are plenty of widebody operators out there who divide the business and economy cabins at a place other than a door,

I should also mention that EK is among this group. All four of their long-range 777 configurations have the Economy/Business divide in between doors 2 and 3. In all four cases the divider is just a bulkhead.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 4:51 am

Quoting na (Reply 49):
Nope. EMD was 18 1/2 when retired for good.

What exactly are you even trying to argue? Re-read the post you're referring to, I'm saying those aircraft will be that age by 2020, as would the one you're talking about have been had it lasted to that point.


Quoting neutrino (Reply 57):
A four-holer 77W

*gasp!* Blasphemy!  Wow!



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 58):
There's a big difference between one route that sort of works because of unique circumstances and 8+ routes that are planned as though they are just additional spokes.

What exactly is this "big difference"....? Explain.

A 16hr+ route is a 16hr+ route, and is in no way dependent on how many others you operate, save for the remote relevance of giving your aircraft something else to do.



Quoting tortugamon (Reply 67):
That is more A380s than currently in operation in any other continent accept Asia.

To be fair, these would also still be based in Asia, technically.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 5:38 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 75):
What exactly is this "big difference"....? Explain.

One is an oddity, the other is a business model. Tim Clark is trying to run the first airline that makes a hub-to-point ULH flight just another flight to be run the same as all the rest. He's trying to overcome physics, and he just may succeed.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 5:52 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 76):
One is an oddity, the other is a business model.

Come on, that's just ridiculous.

In part because, as mentioned, the success of a route can't be judged against the success/failure of another that's completely unrelated to it (i.e. not a feeder)

In part because of geography: the UAE is in a location where multiple 16hr+ flights make sense, most of the rest of the world is not. Especially the whole of Europe, which has no market for such at all.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 5:59 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 77):
Come on, that's just ridiculous.

No, it really isn't. Delta is a good example. Right now it has the one-off ATL-JNB as its sole ULH flight (despite having a fleet of 10 ULH aircraft). ATL-JNB works partly because the European competition incurs very high operating costs at JNB (thanks to having to operate both directions at night) and partly because Europe happens to be far out of the way for a trip from JNB to most of the U.S. It's a unique route with unique circumstances. What EK is doing by ordering 35 777-8s and a shedload of ULH-capable A380s is as if Delta decided to order 25 more 777-200LRs and fly nonstop from DFW or SEA to every first-, second-, and third-tier city in Southeast Asia, and just as improbable. But so far EK is doing OK against all odds. That is apparently what the sheer monstrosity of their DXB feed gets them.
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 6:00 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 66):
Unless QF or Amedeo agree to take some that year, Timmy is going to have 22 whales dumped on his front porch.

I've not seen a single indication from EK that they'd be anything other than happy about that. * shrug *
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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LAX772LR
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 6:09 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 78):
No, it really isn't.

Actually, yeah, it really is.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 78):
ATL-JNB works

....because there's a market for it, which pays the price to sustain it, that DL effectively addresses. Plain and simple.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 78):
is as if Delta decided to order 25 more 777-200LRs

But they haven't, so that's a pointless tangent.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NAV30
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 6:17 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 78):
That is apparently what the sheer monstrosity of their DXB feed gets them.

IMO they're just taking advantage of their 'matchless' location, which puts them pretty well halfway between North America and Asia - Meaning that they can pretty well connect virtually any populous locations in the world on a 'one-stop' basis.

However, when their A380 fleet start reaching the end of their respective service lives, it will be interesting to see how many will be replaced with four-engine 500-plus-seat jumbos as opposed to 400-seat twin-engined B779s. My own feeling is that the latter probably hold most of the cards, due to increased flexibility, lower maintenance costs etc.

[Edited 2015-05-19 23:35:27]
 
Gemuser
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 6:52 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
it will be interesting to see how many will be replaced with four-engine 500-plus-seat jumbos as opposed to 400-seat twin-engined B779s

You know Nav30 I could agree with you IF it wasn't for the fact that it is NOT a 500 seat, 4 engined aircraft. It is a 750 seat, 4 engined aircraft, all certified and everything. I'd be prepared to bet that Sir Tim and his boys have a draft plan and timetable for increasing the seats numbers on their A380s, current and future deliveries. All subject to what actually happens, of course!

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BlueSky1976
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 7:19 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
However, when their A380 fleet start reaching the end of their respective service lives, it will be interesting to see how many will be replaced with four-engine 500-plus-seat jumbos as opposed to 400-seat twin-engined B779s.

All of EKs current A380s will be replaced by newer A380s, like it or not. None will be replaced by 777-9s. Airbus Industrie will make sure the whale remains "CASM king".

With QR being second in line for A380neo, Tim Clark might get what he wishes for after all. And there are also Singapore and Lufthansa.
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KarelXWB
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 7:52 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
True, as the 787-10 can accommodate more passengers and cargo (by volume).
Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 63):
I would think the B787-10 is going to have a higher seat count (semi-random guess). Of course, it will depend on the various carriers and I don't have the floor area so I may indeed be off as to which plane could have a higher theoretical seat count.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
As both aircraft tend to be 9-abreast in Y the 787-10s longer cabin should result in a higher seat count vs the A359 if similarly configured.

As mentioned before, I don't expect A359's and 787-10's to be similarly configured. For long-haul routes many A359's will probably have a higher ratio premium seats. Typical CASM vs RASM.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
NAV30
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:04 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 84):
As mentioned before, I don't expect A359's and 787-10's to be similarly configured.

Neither do I. KarelXWB. But I DO expect that (as is typical with larger versions) the 787-10 will have less range than the A359?

I think that, as far as we know at this stage, range becoming a primary factor with most new products, the A359 will have longer range, and therefore that it will largely be up to the B778/9s, rather than the B787-10, to do the main job of competing with it?

[Edited 2015-05-20 01:09:55]
 
chiad
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:12 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
However, when their A380 fleet start reaching the end of their respective service lives, it will be interesting to see how many will be replaced with four-engine 500-plus-seat jumbos as opposed to 400-seat twin-engined B779s.

It could happen on "thinner" routes, but this seems to be rare in EK's network.
Infact it seems like it's the B777's that's being replaced with A380's as routes matures.
With EK's plan for 200+ A380NEO's in their fleet I think you will be dissapointed to see that twin-engined B779s will replace twin-engined B777-300ER, and A350XWB/B787-10's (whatever EK orders) when these routes matures.

PS! You do know that EK will have about 150 B777-300ER in their fleet when the first of their 150 B777X's arrives?
Why do you think that is?

I will tell you what I think. In 2030 EK's fleet could look like this:
70 A350XWB/B787-10
200 A380 NEO
35 B777-8X
115 B777-9X

If I am right then expansion will be based primarily on the A380 platform (some 140 more frames than they have today).
From 2020 B777X's will mainly replace the 150 B777-300ER that's in EK's fleet at the turn of the decade, which in turn replaced A330's, A340's and classic B777 in their current fleet.
The 70 A350XWB/B787-10 will be designed for regional and start-up routes.

However IMHO B779s will rarely, if ever, replace A380's if EK's plans are fullfilled.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:13 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 66):
For 2016, the reliable non-EK deliveries are: 2 OZ, 3 EY, 2 QR, and 1 BA. Unless QF or Amedeo agree to take some that year, Timmy is going to have 22 whales dumped on his front porch.

Yes EK is going to receive many A380's in the coming years. Have a look at the A380 production list and see how many frames for EK are queued:

http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...gle=true&gid=0&output=html
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MrHMSH
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:29 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
However, when their A380 fleet start reaching the end of their respective service lives, it will be interesting to see how many will be replaced with four-engine 500-plus-seat jumbos as opposed to 400-seat twin-engined B779s.

Very few, if any at all. If Airbus offer an A380NEO with the RR Advance with 10% better fuel efficiency. EK will be all over it. If they don't, EK will probably still be all over it.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
My own feeling is that the latter probably hold most of the cards, due to increased flexibility, lower maintenance costs etc.

It's not been enough so far, so I don't see why it would be in the future. To replace 140 A380s, EK would need close to 200 777Xs. And they'd not do a good job, because it would simply result in a loss in capacity. At LHR, 5X daily A380s to 5X daily 779s is a huge step down. Even the 3X weekly DXB-YYZ would lose a lot of capacity.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:30 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
No real surprise, they have orders to take them out to 150 frames of the current 777 generation and orders to replace them 1:1.

   In fact, when EK placed their 777X order in 2013, Tim Clark mentioned several times the order is meant to replace the whole 777 fleet in the next decade.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 8:56 am

Quoting bluesky1976 (Reply 83):
All of EKs current A380s will be replaced by newer A380s, like it or not. None will be replaced by 777-9s. Airbus Industrie will make sure the whale remains "CASM king".



Talking about CASM killer. Read the link below and you see how profitable the A380 is for EK!!!

“The seat factors on our A380s are 82.5 per cent,” said Clark. “It’s almost double the profitability per seat km than the other fleet. It’s such a good plane, but of course you’ve got to fill it.”

http://www.businesstraveller.asia/as...-interview-with-tim-clark-(part-2)
 
boeing767-300
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 12:28 pm

One thing I have always wondered about with regard to Emirates A380 and 777-300ER is although obviously the A380 carries more passengers the 77W carries more freight. Can anybody here detail the actual freight capacity of the A380 v the 77W. In terms of LD3 containers the 77W looks like it would hold significantly more. Maybe that's why EK have numerous routes that have both servicing certain cities. 380 to cover extra passengers and 77W to add frequency and pick up the cargo?
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 3:39 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 59):
My observations is simply you cannot believe anything that points to an excessive advantage for one airframe over another of the same vintage, they are built with very similar performace.

But your adage was uncertainly incorrect when it came to the A346 vs the 773ER. Both were of the same vintage but, as Boeing predicted, 773ER performance was significantly better.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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Richard28
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 92):
773ER performance was significantly better.

the 773ER was I think always better that the A346, but the 773ER only became significantly better when the price of oil became more expensive.

So at the time of design/launch of these frames Zeke's observation actually holds pretty well.
 
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zeke
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 4:07 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 92):
But your adage was uncertainly incorrect when it came to the A346 vs the 773ER. Both were of the same vintage but, as Boeing predicted, 773ER performance was significantly better.

That is always going to be a point of contention between you and me, as I will always point to you that the A346 had better payload capability, and they you would say that operators would not use that payload capability and have the fuel saving on the 77W. An in real life that is true, airlines report on average around 80% load factors.

I have taken that lesson learned onboard, I think I am the only person on this thread to mention that realistic average load factors in any airline is 80%. What does 80% of a 787-10 give you ?

Now when the shoe is on the other foot, you are saying ignore that ? Lets look only at max capacity ?

Which is exactly the point I have been making about the 787-10, if an airline is not going to use ALL of the additional capability of the 787-10, then the A350-900 is a good contender, and if they need ALL of the additional capability of the 787-10, then the A350-1000 will provide for growth.

I know the A330/A340 pilots at EK are hoping for the 787-10, the destinations and rosters are something to really write home about. The sooner the 787-10 gets in, the sooner they get on the A380, and back to a good lifestyle.
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ikramerica
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 4:13 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 93):

The 77W performance improved 10% by 1 year after EIS compared to launch. That is what killed the A346. The 77W was designed as a 742/3 replacement but due to increased performance and 10Y seating became a 744 replacement. The A346 was also a 742/3 replacement but couldn't quite cut it as a 744 replacement, partly because Airbus wanted the A380 to fill that role.
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Polot
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 5:49 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 84):
As mentioned before, I don't expect A359's and 787-10's to be similarly configured. For long-haul routes many A359's will probably have a higher ratio premium seats. Typical CASM vs RASM.

Presumably though, an airline choosing between the two are going to look at them with similar layouts though. I don't think with EK (or any airlines) it is a choice between aircraft A with a premium layout vs. aircraft B with a less premium layout for the same role when it comes to deciding which one to take. It is aircraft A and aircraft B in a comparable layout, although I'm sure they compare many different layouts to find the optimal choice.

Quoting zeke (Reply 94):
Which is exactly the point I have been making about the 787-10, if an airline is not going to use ALL of the additional capability of the 787-10, then the A350-900 is a good contender, and if they need ALL of the additional capability of the 787-10, then the A350-1000 will provide for growth.

How come EK possibly operating 787-10s at 80% load factors is such a bad thing, and must mean they should choose the slightly smaller A359? According to Tim Clark their A380 seat factor is 82.5%, which obviously must mean they are not using ALL of the additional capability and they should go for a smaller plane. To be consistent, you should be arguing that EK should dump all their A380 orders and just order 777s. After all the 778 should have a sufficient number of seats and the 779 will provide for growth. Boeing also offers a solution if EK finds the 787-10 seating capacity to be too large. They call it the 787-9; it is not that much smaller than an A359 and Boeing would be perfectly happy to sell it to EK.

But I suspect if the A359 and 787-10 sizes were reversed you suddenly wouldn't have an issue if EK was only filling the A359 80% in a regional role (plenty of room for future growth without having to buy and replace with new aircraft I'm sure would be your argument)...

I mean do you realize how ridiculous your argument is? You are saying:
-100% full A359 good
-80% full 787-10 bad
-100% full 787-10 bad
-80% full A350-1000 good.
and I'm guessing 100% full 787-9 would be considered bad. Oh, and 80% full A380 is good too.

Zeke, just come out and say it. You want EK to select the A350, because you want them to select Airbus. There is no shame in admitting you have a bias, everyone here is biased to some degree. The comical lengths you are going to try and justify your opinion just makes it worse, especially when it is already clear to most users here.

[Edited 2015-05-20 11:11:37]

[Edited 2015-05-20 11:15:12]
 
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seabosdca
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 6:33 pm

Quoting polot (Reply 96):
I mean do you realize how ridiculous your argument is? You are saying:
-100% full A359 good
-80% full 787-10 bad
-100% full 787-10 bad
-80% full A350-1000 good.

   The argument is incoherent. You could just as well make the same argument but with the three aircraft being the 787-8, A350-900, and 787-10, and it would make just as little sense.

Quoting boeing767-300 (Reply 91):
Maybe that's why EK have numerous routes that have both servicing certain cities. 380 to cover extra passengers and 77W to add frequency and pick up the cargo?

When push comes to shove passengers will be favored on all but a few routes, but where a 777/A350/787 works well the cargo capacity is a nice bonus. All of those three aircraft are truly excellent cargo haulers, while the A380 uses much more of its underfloor space for passenger bags, and has much more limited cargo capability as a result.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 9:32 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 94):
That is always going to be a point of contention between you and me, as I will always point to you that the A346 had better payload capability, and they you would say that operators would not use that payload capability and have the fuel saving on the 77W.

You keep acting like the subject is still open to debate. The proof is not what you and I say to each other but in the sales history of the airplanes.

A3406: 97 sold, out of production.

777-300ER: 768 sold, still in production

The airlines, including your own, answered the question long ago.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 95):
The 77W performance improved 10% by 1 year after EIS compared to launch.

Actually, it was less than a 5% fuel burn improvement but MTOW increased from 340.2t to 351.5t with a negligible gain in OEW. This greatly enhanced the Payload-Range envelope.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

Wed May 20, 2015 9:36 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 94):
and back to a good lifestyle.

You mean the benefit of a girlfriend on every Continent, at the cost of an ex-wife who gets half?  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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