EK To Replace Entire B777 Fleet With B777X

dubaiamman243 · Mon May 18, 2015 7:43 pm

In a recent interview with ' Australian Business Traveler' Sir Tim Clark stated that he plans to replace the entire B777 fleet (from the B777-200 to B777-300ER) with the next-gen B777X jets starting from 2020.

Source: http://www.ausbt.com.au/emirates-to-...-777-fleet-with-777-8x-777-9x-jets

Revelation · Mon May 18, 2015 7:46 pm

No real surprise, they have orders to take them out to 150 frames of the current 777 generation and orders to replace them 1:1.

It's also no surprise that he's pitting B787-10 against the A350-900 for their "regional" order.

jetblue1965 · Mon May 18, 2015 7:46 pm

It's really crazy to picture that in the 2020s, EK would have nothing smaller than a 778.

chrisnh · Mon May 18, 2015 7:47 pm

I would like one of the old 777-300ERs as a lawn ornament, please.

dubaiamman243 · Mon May 18, 2015 7:51 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):

They will go for the B787-10.

tortugamon · Mon May 18, 2015 7:52 pm

Sorry but I don't see what in this article is new information here.

Maybe a couple small things: The 777 was supposed to start exiting the fleet in 2017 and this article says 2020.

I guess the fact that he is only looking at the A359 and not the A351 for the regional fleet decision with the 787-10 is news (to me).

I think its interesting that he refers to the 778 as 'the real sweatheart'. He clearly has something in store for those 35 units; maybe it is to open up direct flights to the Western Americas as we have speculated.

tortugamon

jetblue1965 · Mon May 18, 2015 7:52 pm

Quoting chrisnh (Reply 3):
I would like one of the old 777-300ERs as a lawn ornament, please.

You have a backyard that big ? Good for you =)

hilram · Mon May 18, 2015 7:54 pm

Hardly a surprise. But it is interesting to see that he is considering the Boeing 787-10 and the Airbus A350-900. Will the extra range of the Airbus give it an edge?

Miami · Mon May 18, 2015 8:01 pm

Not a surprise. I mean, come on. They are Emirates after all. They do things most carriers wouldn't even think about.

I just hope they sell their 777s instead of just sending them to VCV, for example.

phxa340 · Mon May 18, 2015 8:03 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 7):

I would say the extra range of the A359 actually hurts it against the 78J as this is going to be used for regional ops.

VAM8789 · Mon May 18, 2015 8:10 pm

It's almost comical how many wide-body planes they'll have. They're on track for what? 140 A380. Now 150 777X.

Don't they still have some 77W orders that have not even been delivered yet?

LAX772LR · Mon May 18, 2015 8:10 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 8):
I just hope they sell their 777s instead of just sending them to VCV

The 772As, 773As, and early 772ERs will probably be scrapped.... they'll all be 20yrs+ old, have tons of cycles, and will be headed toward their 3rd+ round of heavy mtx.

The 77Ls and 77Ws will definitely live on though.

Miami · Mon May 18, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 11):
The 772As, 773As, and early 772ERs will probably be scrapped

Yes.. True. But who knows? They're may be a carrier that can benefit from them. Seems unlikely though.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 11):
The 77Ls and 77Ws will definitely live on though.

I'd hope so. But I believe they will.

tortugamon · Mon May 18, 2015 8:31 pm

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 10):
Don't they still have some 77W orders that have not even been delivered yet?

Yes, 48.

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 10):
They're on track for what? 140 A380.

I do not believe they will operate more than ~115 at any given point before 2025.

Quoting hilram (Reply 7):
But it is interesting to see that he is considering the Boeing 787-10 and the Airbus A350-900. Will the extra range of the Airbus give it an edge?

As EK has indicated that this is for a regional aircraft and many around here believe that is less than 10 hours then the prevailing thought is that it will give the 781 the edge as it will be a lighter aircraft while carrying more passengers, cargo (volume and weight), while burning very similar fuel on missions less than 4,500nm.

tortugamon

seabosdca · Mon May 18, 2015 8:35 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 7):
But it is interesting to see that he is considering the Boeing 787-10 and the Airbus A350-900. Will the extra range of the Airbus give it an edge?

There seems to be a little smoke behind a 787-10 order from EK. But it's well early enough that things can change. Remember how Airbus swooped down and took BA's VLA order away from Boeing at the very last minute with an improved offer.

The 787-10 does seem like a slightly better fit than the A350-900 for the many regional missions EK flies.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 11):
The 77Ls and 77Ws will definitely live on though.

I really doubt that for the 77Ls. I don't think there will be a buyer for 10 high-hour 77Ls in ~2022. The 77Ws, especially the newer ones, have a better shot.

Miami · Mon May 18, 2015 8:42 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 14):
I really doubt that for the 77Ls. I don't think there will be a buyer for 10 high-hour 77Ls in ~2022. The 77Ws, especially the newer ones, have a better shot.

You make good point. But there were rumors of AA looking for some 77Ls. But by 2020, I don't think they'd want them anymore. But we'll see.

The newer 77Ws, I can see going to maybe QF? Would be interesting. But doesn't seem very likely.

Gemuser · Mon May 18, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 15):
The newer 77Ws, I can see going to maybe QF?

What are you smoking/taking and where do you get it?

Over on Australian Aviation there seems to be an unprecedented agreement that QF wide body fleet in the 2020s will be A380 & B787 (various sub models) only.
Of course one never knows, but it seems a reasonable conclusion to me.

Gemuser

parapente · Mon May 18, 2015 8:58 pm

His order will have 'Advance' engines on them - just like his 380's.This man is soooo ahead of the game.

nicode · Mon May 18, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 15):
You make good point. But there were rumors of AA looking for some 77Ls. But by 2020, I don't think they'd want them anymore. But we'll see.

Why not Delta ? They love second hands aircrafts and they already have some 77L in their fleet...

kl911 · Mon May 18, 2015 9:24 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 7):
But it is interesting to see that he is considering the Boeing 787-10 and the Airbus A350-900. Will the extra range of the Airbus give it an edge?

As a passenger I'd take the 359 over the 781 for the cabin/seat width.

Miami · Mon May 18, 2015 9:34 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 16):
What are you smoking/taking and where do you get it?

Wasn't there rumors about QF and 777s?

Quoting nicode (Reply 18):
Why not Delta ?

Yes.. Why not Delta? I can see them getting some; sure. But I don't think it's likely because of their feud with Middle East carriers.

Stitch · Mon May 18, 2015 9:34 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 17):
His order will have 'Advance' engines on them - just like his 380's.This man is soooo ahead of the game.

Well it's evidently going to have RR power whether they're 787s or A350s.

jacobin777 · Mon May 18, 2015 9:57 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 8):

I just hope they sell their 777s instead of just sending them to VCV, for example.

Don't forget many of their B777's (as well as A380's) are and/or will be on leases as well so it will basically be up to the lessor(s) to decide what to do with those planes.

na · Mon May 18, 2015 10:01 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 11):
The 772As, 773As, and early 772ERs will probably be scrapped.... they'll all be 20yrs+ old, have tons of cycles, and will be headed toward their 3rd+ round of heavy mtx.

Not all are 20+, but their future will be short-cut, sure.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 11):
The 77Ls and 77Ws will definitely live on though.

Certainly until the early 2020s. But once 777X will arrive in numbers, by the mid-2020s barely 15 year-old 77Ws I expect to be axed by the dozen.

Flexiwings · Mon May 18, 2015 10:02 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):
As a passenger I'd take the 359 over the 781 for the cabin/seat width.

Well, we all know Emirates could care less about seat width preference, otherwise they wouldn't have spearheaded the whole ten abreast 777 movement we see today.

na · Mon May 18, 2015 10:04 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 20):
Wasn't there rumors about QF and 777s?

Yes, I remember something like that from the last millenium.

tortugamon · Mon May 18, 2015 10:18 pm

They have 3.5x as many 778s on order as they have 77Ls. Right now the 77L is used on longhaul to the US to open routes like they did at DFW, MCO, BOS, SEA and I am sure elsewhere and when the route improves they bring in the bigger planes and use the 77L elsewhere (usually, again, to open a new route).

Makes me wonder what else they have planned with that large of an order. Earlier STC mentioned cargo capabilities on the 778 would allow for flights from SYD-FCO but I don't see why that helps them unless they are thinking about opening a European hub there with approval.

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):
As a passenger I'd take the 359 over the 781 for the cabin/seat width.

Both will have wider seats on their 77Ws that seem to be well-enough received. Very few will agree with you while the vast vast majority won't even register the difference; maybe they will like the windows.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Well it's evidently going to have RR power whether they're 787s or A350s.

Because RR is better on short flights? Or is there something you have heard?

tortugamon

Stitch · Mon May 18, 2015 10:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Well it's evidently going to have RR power whether they're 787s or A350s.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 26):
Because RR is better on short flights? Or is there something you have heard?

When EK signed the Trent 900 deal for the latest tranche of A380-800s, they noted that they would also be selecting RR power for whichever airframe one the regional RFP.

81819 · Mon May 18, 2015 10:30 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 26):
Both will have wider seats on their 77Ws that seem to be well-enough received. Very few will agree with you while the vast vast majority won't even register the difference; maybe they will like the windows.

Emirates do fly those 777's on some relatively long routes. It could be the case the economics of buying new more fuel efficient 777X's to replace middle aged, still fuel efficient 77W's works.

Miami · Mon May 18, 2015 10:54 pm

Quoting na (Reply 25):
Yes, I remember something like that from the last millenium.

Oh! You were alive back then, too? Cool!

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 22):

Don't forget many of their B777's (as well as A380's) are and/or will be on leases as well so it will basically be up to the lessor(s) to decide what to do with those planes.

True that!

tortugamon · Mon May 18, 2015 11:29 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
they noted that they would also be selecting RR power for whichever airframe one the regional RFP.

Interesting, thanks.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 28):
It could be the case the economics of buying new more fuel efficient 777X's to replace middle aged, still fuel efficient 77W's works.

The ~48 or so 77Ws they are due to receive should be produced before the end of ~2018: I don't see them retiring these last ones much earlier before 2030. Its going to take more than a handful of years to produce 150 777Xs.

tortugamon

29erUSA187 · Mon May 18, 2015 11:35 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
It's also no surprise that he's pitting B787-10 against the A350-900 for their "regional" order.

I actually see the 78J winning this. It is, as mentioned in other threads, a CASM killer, and I am shocked at how few orders it has.

Gemuser · Mon May 18, 2015 11:43 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 20):
Wasn't there rumors about QF and 777s?

No creditable one this millennium!

What people have to remember is that QF is VERY adverse to having many aircraft types in the international fleet, due to its relatively small size the cost of doing so is excessive. They are not a BA or LH. The B787 variants seem considerably better suited for QFs needs than second hand about 20 year old B777s.

Gemuser

777way · Tue May 19, 2015 12:08 am

Theres an EK ad showing on my screen promoting J class with a pic that shows top to bottom faux wood pamelling on cabin walls i.e the ones with windows not cabin partitions, is this true? on which aircraft?

seabosdca · Tue May 19, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting 777way (Reply 33):
Theres an EK ad showing on my screen promoting J class with a pic that shows top to bottom faux wood pamelling on cabin walls i.e the ones with windows not cabin partitions, is this true? on which aircraft?

It's an A380, as shown on the left below. The paneling isn't top to bottom, but the photo is cleverly arranged. The 777 (right) just has wood trim on the individual window surrounds. Either way I think it's horribly garish.

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Raymond Ngu

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Andrew Hunt

ikramerica · Tue May 19, 2015 12:50 am

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 10):

There is no concrete evidence EK will ever even operate more than 90-100 A380s. They place long term orders to make news but ultimately all of the latest orders are to replace existing aircraft. Not that 100 A380s + 150 777s + 50-60 regional aircraft isn't big...

dc10lover · Tue May 19, 2015 12:59 am

"I would like one of the old 777-300ERs as a lawn ornament, please"

Or better yet. The GE - 90 - 115B engines.

rta · Tue May 19, 2015 1:05 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 34):
Either way I think it's horribly garish.

I agree. I have no problem saying it looks ugly, which in my opinion, it does.
The size of those screens look quite nice, however.

glideslope · Tue May 19, 2015 2:05 am

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):
As a passenger I'd take the 359 over the 781 for the cabin/seat width.

We are talking Regional here. Seat width consideration will only be for C/ASM.

LAX772LR · Tue May 19, 2015 3:14 am

Quoting Miami (Reply 12):
But who knows? They're may be a carrier that can benefit from them.

It'd have to likely be a struggling 3rd-world type carrier... there's not much market for any of the above TODAY, let alone another half-decade or so down the road.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 14):
I don't think there will be a buyer for 10 high-hour 77Ls in ~2022.

Let's see where IR or DL's heads are at, then.

Quoting na (Reply 23):
Not all are 20+

Didn't say they are. Said they will be.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 26):
Earlier STC mentioned cargo capabilities on the 778 would allow for flights from SYD-FCO

778 is advertised with essentially the same range that the 77L has now. While I'm sure that's likely to increase once the model's in testing/service, it doesn't really offer anything new in terms of potential destinations-- just higher pax and lower fuel burn on the things the 77L can already do now.

tortugamon · Tue May 19, 2015 4:16 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
778 is advertised with essentially the same range that the 77L has now. While I'm sure that's likely to increase once the model's in testing/service, it doesn't really offer anything new in terms of potential destinations-- just higher pax and lower fuel burn on the things the 77L can already do now.

But they already know they want at least 3.5 times more aircraft than they had with the 77L and glowing words like 'the real sweatheart'.

I may be the only conspiracy theorist but I think they have a lot in store. I think they will use it for the Western Half of the Americas as well as super cargo routes in conjunction with the A380 to establish frequency and carry the cargo that the A380s leave behind. A 77W with 77L cargo.

tortugamon

seabosdca · Tue May 19, 2015 4:27 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
Let's see where IR or DL's heads are at, then.

There will be plenty of low-cost 77Ws coming out of a number of airlines around that time for those wanting 80,000+ hour used 777s. No need to put up with the lower revenue potential of the 77L.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
it doesn't really offer anything new in terms of potential destinations

It may allow the carrying of an economically useful payload to destinations the 77L could physically, but not economically, serve today. I think that's why Clark is salivating over it. He's running about four routes that challenge the 77W from a range perspective -- and he's still using the 77W on them even with fewer seats filled. Judging by the size of his order he hopes to be running as many as eight of these routes with the 778.

Personally, I think he's got a bit of an emotional fixation on the most difficult routes -- he sees himself as the guy who could make ULH work when no one else could. And judging by his results on SFO and LAX he may be right. But he's still too focused on 8000+ nm useful range for too much of his fleet.

[Edited 2015-05-18 21:29:40]

LAX772LR · Tue May 19, 2015 5:10 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 41):
he sees himself as the guy who could make ULH work when no one else could

Perhaps I'm missing a carrier, but seems TG and SQ are the only two to have given a shot at 16hr+ flights and failed.... and I'd argue that that has more to do with having hubs that don't offer a benefit to any destination by providing those flights.

In addition to Emirates: DL, AA, UA, QR, EY, QF, etc are all opping 16hr+ routes and doing just fine.

astuteman · Tue May 19, 2015 5:19 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 31):
I actually see the 78J winning this. It is, as mentioned in other threads, a CASM killer, and I am shocked at how few orders it has.

This has surprised me too. Only 3 orders for ANA since the launch commitments were firmed up.

Still. It's a marathon, not a sprint, and I can only see the 787-10 as being a successful product

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 35):
There is no concrete evidence EK will ever even operate more than 90-100 A380s

Except perhaps that all 140 on order are due to be delivered before their first example's 12th birthday

Rgds

seabosdca · Tue May 19, 2015 5:25 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 42):
In addition to Emirates: DL, AA, UA, QR, EY, QF, etc are all opping 16hr+ routes and doing just fine.

It remains to be seen whether QR's and EY's LAX routes are "doing just fine." I'm not yet convinced and they are awfully quiet.

The others are all kind of one-offs, very different from the network EK is visuallizing where they use a fleet of 777-8s bigger than most airlines' entire widebody fleets strictly on ULH. JNB-ATL is serving a market that's expensive for everyone to serve. SYD-DFW has absolutely monster connectivity on both ends. UA's and AA's longest routes are about 45 minutes to an hour shorter.

And that 35 may not even be the extent of their ULH ambitions. They will have later A380s that are entirely capable of operating ULH with a full load of passengers, albeit without the cargo a 777-8X could carry.

[Edited 2015-05-18 22:31:43]

tortugamon · Tue May 19, 2015 5:40 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 41):
I think that's why Clark is salivating over it. He's running about four routes that challenge the 77W from a range perspective -- and he's still using the 77W on them even with fewer seats filled. Judging by the size of his order he hopes to be running as many as eight of these routes with the 778.

I agree but I think there is more there. Right now I count two non-stop destinations for EK in Latin America a region with 580 Million people where nearly two dozen countries are growing in population greater than the world average. These destinations are long and low-yielding from DXB but its really their last tapped region. In 10-years time is it that hard to believe they will have 8-10 destinations in the region with the help of the 778?

Plus, again, I think they will put the A380 on every route they can which leaves cargo at the gate when they don't operate the 77W so the 778 becomes much more valuable in the future EK fleet.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 43):
Except perhaps that all 140 on order are due to be delivered before their first example's 12th birthday

Color be shocked if they receive all 140 before July 2020. I have them having 60 right now which means 80 (1.33 times the size of their current fleet) to be received in 5 year and two months which means about 1.3 A380s to be received every month from now for five+ years. EK progress rarely surprises me anymore but that sure would.

tortugamon

LAX772LR · Tue May 19, 2015 5:53 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
The others are all kind of one-offs

I don't recall there being a minimum number requirement...

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
JNB-ATL is serving a market that's expensive for everyone to serve

So?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
SYD-DFW has absolutely monster connectivity on both ends

Isn't that what you'd wannnnnt? ....as opposed to say, SQ running a route that benefits essentially no destination other than the terminal points themselves?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
UA's and AA's longest routes are about 45 minutes to an hour shorter.

You're saying that as if it somehow makes the logistics any less difficult relative to typical (i.e. shorter) longhauls.

lightsaber · Tue May 19, 2015 5:54 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 2):

It's really crazy to picture that in the 2020s, EK would have nothing smaller than a 778.

As already noted, EK will order either 78Js or A359s. I'm hearing more that it is Boeing's order to lose (not firm, but heading that way).

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
The 777 was supposed to start exiting the fleet in 2017 and this article says 2020.

Are they all really staying until 2020? We've had threads on 77As meeting their material:
First Emirates 777 Facing The Axe (by na Nov 5 2014 in Civil Aviation)

A6-EMD was the 77A ferried to the USA to become beercan.

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 22):
Don't forget many of their B777's (as well as A380's) are and/or will be on leases as well so it will basically be up to the lessor(s) to decide what to do with those planes.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 45):
I agree but I think there is more there. Right now I count two non-stop destinations for EK in Latin America a region with 580 Million people where nearly two dozen countries are growing in population greater than the world average. These destinations are long and low-yielding from DXB but its really their last tapped region. In 10-years time is it that hard to believe they will have 8-10 destinations in the region with the help of the 778?

That depends on how you define the region. If it is Mexico on south... 8-10 is possible. If you exclude Mexico/central America... I would say 8-10 is unlikely. I expect a few more flights to South America though. If you mean 8 to 10 flights per day, that is certain if Brazil would allow.

Lightsaber

mjoelnir · Tue May 19, 2015 7:55 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 35):
There is no concrete evidence EK will ever even operate more than 90-100 A380s. They place long term orders to make news but ultimately all of the latest orders are to replace existing aircraft. Not that 100 A380s + 150 777s + 50-60 regional aircraft isn't big...

When the last 50 A380 were ordered 25 were for expansion and 25 for replacement. That would make it 115 A380 in use at the same time. Since than deliveries have been accelerated.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 45):
Color be shocked if they receive all 140 before July 2020. I have them having 60 right now which means 80 (1.33 times the size of their current fleet) to be received in 5 year and two months which means about 1.3 A380s to be received every month from now for five+ years. EK progress rarely surprises me anymore but that sure would.

They are taking 16 A380 this year and similar numbers the next years. It will perhaps not be all 140 frames by mid 2020 but there will not be many left undelivered.

[Edited 2015-05-19 01:14:11]

na · Tue May 19, 2015 9:09 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
Maybe a couple small things: The 777 was supposed to start exiting the fleet in 2017 and this article says 2020.

First 77W to go by 2016 as much as I am aware. Older 777s are being retired as we write.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 47):
A6-EMD was the 77A ferried to the USA to become beercan.

A second one of the same age has joined it.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
Didn't say they are. Said they will be.

Nope. EMD was 18 1/2 when retired for good.

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