Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:26 pm

As I predicted in the OAG thread last week, DL is being forced into expanding the SEA hub toward the East by AS adding East spokes. I say "forced" because DL said pretty clearly that originally the spokes being added were only to feed Asia. BOS to Asia via Seattle is considerably out of the way versus other Delta options.

Given the level of competition in the market I'd say it is going to be financially challenged. At least they are starting it going into peak season. Daytime operation. Uses one whole aircraft. Wonder if B6 will respond?

Starts April 2016
SEA-BOS 1100am 7:30pm DL968 737-800
BOS-SEA 0700am 1015am DL2363 737-800
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2923
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:30 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL is being forced into expanding the SEA hub toward the East by AS adding East spokes.

How is this forcing DL to expand east?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS to Asia via Seattle is considerably out of the way versus other Delta options.

People routinely travel considerable distances out of their way to connect, especially with international travel. This is also about adding to the local market - DL can't win in SEA if they don't offer services to the places people really want to go, and BOS is clearly one of them. I wouldn't be surprised if we see service added to ORD, DFW and IAH in due time.

Jeremy
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:37 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 1):
How is this forcing DL to expand east?

Because Delta is not getting a lot of traction in the Seattle point-of-sale. AS has a 50% share and DL has a 13% share. AS adding East non-stops has undercut DL's primary domestic advantage which was better service to the East. Since they no longer have that advantage in most large markets in the East, Delta to have any chance of winning the SEA point of sale now needs to fly to the large East Coast markets to try to keep up (even though they don't help Asia which was the goal of the SEA hub build in the first place)...which means be competitive in grabbing corporate customers and frequent flyer loyalty. The 13% share so far indicates they have not yet achieved much success in either of those.

Having said all of that, I continue to say that in the long term and with enough loss-leading DL cannot be stopped unless Wall Street pulls the plug on loss-leading in SEA through stock downgrades. I do not expect Wall Street to do that.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 1):
People routinely travel considerable distances out of their way to connect, especially with international travel.

Delta should have no reason to undercut prices on their other services in order to encourage people to fly hours out of the way.
 
JetBlueCLT
Posts: 412
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:55 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

How much more can B6 respond? There already adding a 4th daily this summer. A 5th daily would be overkill, B6 doesn't even fly BOS-LAX 4 times a day. Even though I think mint will be on BOS/LAX next year.
Pittsburgh Penguins, Steelers, Pirates and Charlotte Hornets Fan
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3232
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:50 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 3):
How much more can B6 respond?

A little route called BOS-ATL but if the rumors are true they pull the trigger on BOS-CVG instead.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Wonder if B6 will respond?

Better question - how does AS respond since this is aiming for their loyal customers.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
ridgid727
Posts: 1081
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):

Having said all of that, I continue to say that in the long term and with enough loss-leading DL cannot be stopped unless Wall Street pulls the plug on loss-leading in SEA through stock downgrades. I do not expect Wall Street to do that.

How long do you predict DL will operate SEA with so many empty flights until they reach profitability with SEA, and not just smoke and mirror profitability? Do you think this will also go the way of their stab at PDX a number of years back.
 
xjramper
Posts: 2318
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2003 1:10 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 7:58 pm

Not sure why people think delta is flying empty flights. I consistently sit in station briefings here and their load factor hasn't dropped below 84%, which has been the lowest I've heard. Usually it consistently hovers in the low 90%.
Look ma' no hands!
 
User avatar
usxguy
Posts: 1902
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:28 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:00 pm

I'm an Alaska MVP Gold 75K and bought a last minute ticket HNL-JNU for $290. And to make things more interesting, I got upgraded on all 3 legs. If Delta is doing so "poorly" in Seattle, then I would have expected the 430PM LAX/SEA flight to be empty, but it wasn't. Had 25 open seats and more than double that in non-revs or standbys. I also snagged the last upgrade seat, with people still below me.

even the "Alaska killer" Sea-Jnu flight had about 30 open seats on it, on a 737-800. Not too shabby if you ask me.
xx
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:10 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 3):
How much more can B6 respond? There already adding a 4th daily this summer. A 5th daily would be overkill, B6 doesn't even fly BOS-LAX 4 times a day. Even though I think mint will be on BOS/LAX next year.
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 4):
A little route called BOS-ATL but if the rumors are true they pull the trigger on BOS-CVG instead.

ATL would be the obvious move.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 4):
Better question - how does AS respond since this is aiming for their loyal customers.

I think they are doing everything they can. I don't expect a response to this.

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 5):
How long do you predict DL will operate SEA with so many empty flights until they reach profitability with SEA, and not just smoke and mirror profitability?
Quoting xjramper (Reply 6):

Not sure why people think delta is flying empty flights. I consistently sit in station briefings here and their load factor hasn't dropped below 84%, which has been the lowest I've heard. Usually it consistently hovers in the low 90%.

The current situation for DL is that they have little local traffic and are carrying mostly connects from the East Coast and intra-West at low yields. Some routes are low LF and others aren't, but it's clear from the DOT data that coupling both load and yield into the frame, they are not making money on anything but their own other hubs (domestically) + maybe LAX.

I think they will stick with this until Anderson retires (which is probably 1-3 years I'd guess) and then Bastian might just keep things the same.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
Posts: 3965
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:55 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:20 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 8):
I think they will stick with this until Anderson retires (which is probably 1-3 years I'd guess) and then Bastian might just keep things the same.

Don't count your eggs. Anderson has said numerous times that he is retiring (no more big boss CEO/exec work) after DL. I think he has another 5 or so years if not more. The man fell in love with DL.
What gets measured gets done.
 
tomcbaker
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:01 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:26 pm

Good. I fly SEA-BOS a few times a year and the fares over the last year or two have ranged from overpriced to outrageous on AS; every single flight is usually full and I usually have to buy a ticket instead of non-rev. AS has done a great job filling their planes on this route but from a selfish, purely financial standpoint, I hope this extra capacity lowers fares.

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 5):
How long do you predict DL will operate SEA with so many empty flights until they reach profitability with SEA, and not just smoke and mirror profitability? Do you think this will also go the way of their stab at PDX a number of years back.

I don't know about other DL flights out of SEA but I doubt SEA-BOS will ever go "empty". I can tell you DL has a sizeable frequent flyer base in BOS, and there is a healthy market for BOS flights to the PNW (BOS-PDX and BOS-SEA both do well), after having lived in New England for about a decade and commuted frequently on both routes. The AS and B6 flights were most desirable because they were non-stop but they were also often sold out so I also non-rev'd through either DTW, SLC or California frequently, and even those flights were usually nearly full on the legacies.

This route will take time but it will do well if DL sticks with it and doesn't add too much extra capacity. It was only a matter of time before they started flying it, IMO.
Tom
 
ridgid727
Posts: 1081
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting xjramper (Reply 6):
Usually it consistently hovers in the low 90

Ya right.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:32 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 9):

Well, nobody really knows. It's definitely a topic that's being discussed in the industry. It's definitely a strong possibility.
 
cmb320
Posts: 372
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2000 1:24 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:42 pm

It took Delta years to become profitable in NYC as a whole but they had a plan and stuck to it. Seattle plan is no different. Delta isn't going anywhere.
 
avi8
Posts: 1249
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:45 pm

Is it me or almost all DL mainline flights out of SEA are 737's?
avi8
 
User avatar
usxguy
Posts: 1902
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:28 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:46 pm

lots of A330s and 767s sitting around, so no.
xx
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:50 pm

A question for all the SEA DL doomsayers... if a Seattle hub fails for Delta, what will they're alternative pacific network look like without a significant west coast presence?
 
JetBlueCLT
Posts: 412
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:55 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 8):

Going into ATL doesn't seem like a good idea, at this moment. MSP would be more logical/safe. I say that because there is so much more capacity on ATL-BOS for DL, the handful of WN flights and NK. MSP-BOS is just a bunch of airbusses and SY. SY future is uncertain at this moment. B6 could have a similar operation like there DTW op. 3 E190s to BOS and 1 A320 to FLL.

I totally see ATL coming online in the next few years, I myself don't see them adding it in the immediate future. I hope I'm wrong though!
Pittsburgh Penguins, Steelers, Pirates and Charlotte Hornets Fan
 
FlyASAGuy2005
Posts: 3965
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:55 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:02 pm

Quoting cmb320 (Reply 13):
It took Delta years to become profitable in NYC as a whole but they had a plan and stuck to it. Seattle plan is no different. Delta isn't going anywhere.

Indeed!! LAX and NYC was the same song. Now, SEA. They will stick to it. This is not your grandmother's DL anymore.
What gets measured gets done.
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3232
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting tomcbaker (Reply 10):
I don't know about other DL flights out of SEA but I doubt SEA-BOS will ever go "empty".

Especially with DL's presence in BOS. There must be some BOS based AS flyers crediting to DL. The more and more I think of it - I'm wondering why they didn't go for broke and go double daily with a red eye.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 1):
People routinely travel considerable distances out of their way to connect, especially with international travel. This is also about adding to the local market

True especially if you low ball it however:

1)there's nothing unique about the SEA transpac hub that isn't served non-stop from BOS or by an insane amount of 1-stop options that are better (via JFK/ORD/DTW/NRT etc)

2) connections don't look so hot (3-4 hour layovers and I don't think BOS-SEA-ICN on DL is doable in one of the two directions. Hawaii is another one they could have fed better with a second daily.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
xjramper
Posts: 2318
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2003 1:10 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 11):

Ya right.

just to be clear, I'm a vendor. Load factor for my line of work doesn't mean a darn thing. Flights could have 1 person or oversold by 20 and it doesn't affect what my team has to do. In these twice daily briefings, its a close door meeting for the vendors and airline folks. I can't imagine why they would be lying about these numbers.
Look ma' no hands!
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5526
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:10 pm

And I bet by mid-June 2016, DL will be at least double-daily between SEA and BOS, and both AS and B6 will each be flying at least 4 or 5x a day!

Can anyone say 'slight over-capacity'?  

bb
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5377
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:44 pm

The real test between DL and AS at SEA will occur when the airline cycle heads in the southern direction with red ink. Will
AS survive? Will DL desert the SEA market?
 
bobnwa
Posts: 4514
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:10 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:46 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 21):
Can anyone say 'slight over-capacity'?

If you would like to say it please do
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5377
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:47 pm

Ok...another question for all of you...

Would DL's hub aspirations at SEA be more attractive customers if more of the flights were mainline as opposed to
regional jets? Although, I will say that the EMB-175's are fairly comfy.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5526
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 23):
If you would like to say it please do.

THAT'S A LOT OF [email protected]#!* SEATS!

bb
 
User avatar
tlecam
Posts: 1501
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:38 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 10:44 pm

The 7:00 flight out of Boston is interesting. Good timing for business travelers staying in Seattle as well asAsia connections on the Seattle side. I predict this flight will do well for Delta, especially with corporate travelers.

They announced it 11 months out...why such a long pre-announcement?
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 11:32 pm

Quoting questions (Reply 16):

A question for all the SEA DL doomsayers... if a Seattle hub fails for Delta, what will they're alternative pacific network look like without a significant west coast presence?

I don't think they will give up on it, but if they fail the alternative is giving KE what they want and doing a JV. I'm sure that is a distant second.

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 17):
Going into ATL doesn't seem like a good idea, at this moment. MSP would be more logical/safe.

Maybe, but I think ATL has the inside track.

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 17):
the handful of WN flights

They will leave the market on their own eventually.

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 17):
and NK

That's a bigger problem for B6. I agree, but I don't think it will stop them.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 18):
Indeed!! LAX and NYC was the same song. Now, SEA. They will stick to it.

LAX still is losing money. NYC is not really a parallel as there are slots in LGA and they bought access from another carrier replacing them.

Quoting tlecam (Reply 26):
They announced it 11 months out...why such a long pre-announcement?

They've been doing that with SEA. I assume that because the bookings are so weak that they want every last day to sell tickets.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3392
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BOS to Asia via Seattle is considerably out of the way versus other Delta options.

This does not matter much from a passenger perspective. BOS-JFK-Asia or BOS-SEA-Asia are not far off from a toss. People are willing to do a lot more than fly an extra couple of hours to save a hundred bucks.

From DL's perspective, I agree, they may harm their margins by selling more flying for the same price.

DL's expansion in SEA is probably a done deal. It is planned route-by-route, month-by-month for the next 3 or 4 years. DL announcing a SEA route is not a new fact, it is just disclosure of information.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 11:40 pm

The 11am departure from SEA is useful - fills a time-slot niche that AS can't really duplicate, because it would necessitate a RON in BOS or a really, really late return flight.

Loads are really strong from April to September. However, demand craters on both ends in the late Fall and Winter except for school breaks and holidays.

It is also a very elite-heavy route for AS. I was 35/51 on the F upgrade list this week as an AS MVP.
 
diverted
Posts: 1301
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 3:17 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sat May 23, 2015 11:50 pm

Quoting tomcbaker (Reply 10):
Good. I fly SEA-BOS a few times a year and the fares over the last year or two have ranged from overpriced to outrageous on AS; every single flight is usually full and I usually have to buy a ticket instead of non-rev. AS has done a great job filling their planes on this route but from a selfish, purely financial standpoint, I hope this extra capacity lowers fares.

I can't say I've experienced exactly the same; I flew BOS-SEA return a few months ago, paid ~$150 each way, DL via JFK outbound, B6 direct inbound. Both flights full, but you can definitely tell by the fares that they're trying to make inroads on AS. Either way, I wasn't complaining...
 
tomcbaker
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:01 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 1:18 am

Quoting diverted (Reply 30):
I can't say I've experienced exactly the same; I flew BOS-SEA return a few months ago, paid ~$150 each way, DL via JFK outbound, B6 direct inbound. Both flights full, but you can definitely tell by the fares that they're trying to make inroads on AS. Either way, I wasn't complaining...

Sorry, I should have clarified; non-stop flights between SEA-BOS are what I was referring to in that context. You're right, with connections the price is a lot lower. However, until now it's been just AS and B6 offering non-stops on a route that is fairly popular, so prices for most non-stops have been high the last few years. Granted, "high" is relative, but as someone who did the LAX-Boston commute for 6 years, I'm a bit spoiled as far as transcon prices and for me $500 r/t on this route seems high.
Tom
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting incitatus (Reply 28):
This does not matter much from a passenger perspective. BOS-JFK-Asia or BOS-SEA-Asia are not far off from a toss. People are willing to do a lot more than fly an extra couple of hours to save a hundred bucks.

From DL's perspective, I agree, they may harm their margins by selling more flying for the same price.

But as you said, it is not the same price. They will have to undercut their own flights to get people to waste hours going out of the way.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 29):
fills a time-slot niche that AS can't really duplicate, because it would necessitate a RON in BOS or a really, really late return flight.

Why can't AS have a RON in BOS?
 
AS512
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:46 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 1:46 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 32):
Why can't AS have a RON in BOS?

AS already has two RON's in BOS.
 
YYZAMS
Posts: 236
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2011 4:54 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 2:20 am

I think maybe B6 will start to offer MINT service and maybe even DL will start with lie flat on a 737 to push out AS. Will VX come in to the nonstop market?
 
HeeseokKoo
Posts: 823
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:54 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 2:26 am

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 19):
2) connections don't look so hot (3-4 hour layovers and I don't think BOS-SEA-ICN on DL is doable in one of the two directions. Hawaii is another one they could have fed better with a second daily.

ICN is covered through DTW. It's HKG connection that DL would concern, which is possible although there's 5 hour layover on the way out. If DL replaces NRT-TPE by SEA-TPE and keep the similar schedule with SEA-HKG, and adjust 1/day domestic routes similar to Boston schedule, DL's SEA hub may work like UA's SFO.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13565
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 2:28 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Because Delta is not getting a lot of traction in the Seattle point-of-sale. AS has a 50% share and DL has a 13% share.

Out of curiosity, what exactly do you expect the share of a 2yr-old secondary hub for one carrier, against a 37yr+ primary hub for another carrier, to look like?


Quoting cmb320 (Reply 13):
It took Delta years to become profitable in NYC as a whole but they had a plan and stuck to it.

   Against a lot more competition, at that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 3:00 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 9):
Don't count your eggs. Anderson has said numerous times that he is retiring (no more big boss CEO/exec work) after DL. I think he has another 5 or so years if not more. The man fell in love with DL.

The DL haters will jump for joy the day Richard leaves but it will be a big deal for the employees. We love Richard. I also don't see him leaving anytime soon.


Quoting xjramper (Reply 20):
just to be clear, I'm a vendor. Load factor for my line of work doesn't mean a darn thing. Flights could have 1 person or oversold by 20 and it doesn't affect what my team has to do. In these twice daily briefings, its a close door meeting for the vendors and airline folks. I can't imagine why they would be lying about these numbers.

They aren't lying about the numbers. That's just ridiculous. More anti-DL nonsense.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 21):
And I bet by mid-June 2016, DL will be at least double-daily between SEA and BOS, and both AS and B6 will each be flying at least 4 or 5x a day!

I would put money on it that this goes double-daily before ever being launched. Also a good chance of seeing the lie-flat 757s.

Quoting enilria (Reply 27):
They've been doing that with SEA. I assume that because the bookings are so weak that they want every last day to sell tickets.

More anti-DL assumptions. Enilria, we all respect you but dude, lighten up. They're announcing this early so they can work on corporate clients for FY 2016.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 29):
It is also a very elite-heavy route for AS. I was 35/51 on the F upgrade list this week as an AS MVP.

This is another reason DL will be going after the route--to steal those elites from AS.

Quoting YYZAMS (Reply 34):
I think maybe B6 will start to offer MINT service and maybe even DL will start with lie flat on a 737 to push out AS. Will VX come in to the nonstop market?

I expect MINT to come to this route and I expect that DL will bring the lie-flat 757s too. That will put AS in a difficult position.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 36):
Out of curiosity, what exactly do you expect the share of a 2yr-old secondary hub for one carrier, against a 37yr+ primary hub for another carrier, to look like?

  

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 36):
   Against a lot more competition, at that.

   A LOT more competition.
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 3:16 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 36):
Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Because Delta is not getting a lot of traction in the Seattle point-of-sale. AS has a 50% share and DL has a 13% share.

Out of curiosity, what exactly do you expect the share of a 2yr-old secondary hub for one carrier, against a 37yr+ primary hub for another carrier, to look like?
Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
Quoting enilria (Reply 27):
They've been doing that with SEA. I assume that because the bookings are so weak that they want every last day to sell tickets.

More anti-DL assumptions. Enilria, we all respect you but dude, lighten up. They're announcing this early so they can work on corporate clients for FY 2016.

Again, as I said...

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Having said all of that, I continue to say that in the long term and with enough loss-leading DL cannot be stopped

...I don't see how that can be taken as saying that DL will fail.
 
LAXtoATL
Posts: 596
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:55 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 3:30 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 27):

LAX still is losing money.

You might want to fact check that.

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):

Also a good chance of seeing the lie-flat 757s.

If they took the lie-flats off SEA-JFK, I wouldn't expect to see them on SEA-BOS.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2318
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 3:38 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 25):
They announced it 11 months out...why such a long pre-announcement?
Quoting enilria (Reply 27):
They've been doing that with SEA. I assume that because the bookings are so weak that they want every last day to sell tickets.

Wondered the same....announcing a new route nearly a YEAR in advance? That's just not normal. Is it supposed be meant to scare AS? Doubtful. Every market that DL is adding out of SEA is one where AS has multiple flights. If AS choses to drop one flight that frees up that aircraft to go somewhere else, maybe somewhere new (BNA, CHS, RDU the latest examples) and steal market share from DL, offering only connecting service.

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
I expect MINT to come to this route and I expect that DL will bring the lie-flat 757s too. That will put AS in a difficult position.

This will be interesting. AS always has a lengthy upgrade standby list. I think their new 'Preferred Plus' seating in coach is only a short-term fix for keeping their status flyers happy. Maybe one more row in F? True premium economy? I think they need to address this or the siphoning off of elite customers might start.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5377
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 4:29 am

Doesn't AS draw SEA-BOS down to 2X daily during the off-peak seasons?

I'm actually surprised DL's SEA-BOS announcement didn't come 2 years ago. I still think DL would have grown a lot quicker
if there were gates available. Besides PSC and BOS, what's next? Perhaps more mainline flights during off-peak periods to
places like LAS, LAX and SAN? I am hoping for more and more 717's out here!
 
Thomaas
Posts: 698
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 4:46 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 29):
It is also a very elite-heavy route for AS. I was 35/51 on the F upgrade list this week as an AS MVP.

This is another reason DL will be going after the route--to steal those elites from AS.

With SkyMiles being what it is, I doubt many on AS would willingly switch.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 4:55 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
I expect MINT to come to this route and I expect that DL will bring the lie-flat 757s too. That will put AS in a difficult position.

IINM Delta dropped the lie-flat's on their hub-to-hub NYC-SEA route. Why would they bring them to BOS? Mint? Not sure about that either but you never know.

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
  A LOT more competition.

And a market that is multiple times bigger and more important than Seattle. Were it not for DL needing a TPAC hub, there wouldn't even be a fight in SEA to talk about.

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 40):
Every market that DL is adding out of SEA is one where AS has multiple flights. If AS choses to drop one flight that frees up that aircraft to go somewhere else, maybe somewhere new (BNA, CHS, RDU the latest examples) and steal market share from DL, offering only connecting service.

AS are running out of easy markets to enter, and I don't see that they'll have the same impact on DL in future adds. DL adding BOS affects AS way more than AS adding BNA affects DL. That's why I think an improved F class product and possibly an E+ product will be needed at some point to defend against DL on existing routes.

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 40):
AS always has a lengthy upgrade standby list. I think their new 'Preferred Plus' seating in coach is only a short-term fix for keeping their status flyers happy. Maybe one more row in F? True premium economy? I think they need to address this or the siphoning off of elite customers might start.

They definitely need to do some targeted improvements that don't kill their cost advantage but instead enhance their revenues.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 5:31 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 40):
This will be interesting. AS always has a lengthy upgrade standby list. I think their new 'Preferred Plus' seating in coach is only a short-term fix for keeping their status flyers happy. Maybe one more row in F? True premium economy? I think they need to address this or the siphoning off of elite customers might start.

   This is an area where Alaska has the advantage of being small--they can respond quicker to market dynamics and roll out a new product like true E+ MUCH faster than Delta can. They need to do something here. And fast.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 41):
I'm actually surprised DL's SEA-BOS announcement didn't come 2 years ago.

You aren't the only one.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 42):
With SkyMiles being what it is, I doubt many on AS would willingly switch.

When you're Platinum/MVP and still 35/51 on an upgrade list..... that's not exactly rewarding your loyalty. SkyMiles starts to look good.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 43):
IINM Delta dropped the lie-flat's on their hub-to-hub NYC-SEA route. Why would they bring them to BOS? Mint? Not sure about that either but you never know.

Two things.
1) Hub-Hub routes generally don't command the high dollar flyers. If it was LGA-SEA, it would be very different.
2) I remember hearing that several of the lie-flat 757s were going into heavy mx and that pulled them from SEA. In my opinion they need to bring them back (those or different 757s) on JFK-SEA, and LAX-BOS, SEA-BOS but I'm not in revenue management so what do I know.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 43):
AS are running out of easy markets to enter, and I don't see that they'll have the same impact on DL in future adds. DL adding BOS affects AS way more than AS adding BNA affects DL. That's why I think an improved F class product and possibly an E+ product will be needed at some point to defend against DL on existing routes.

      Even BNA really isn't painful to Delta. DL is so massive that a few less passengers a day doing SEA-ATL-BNA is a drop in the ocean.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 43):
They definitely need to do some targeted improvements that don't kill their cost advantage but instead enhance their revenues.

   This is what Alaska needs to figure out. And fast. So far their PRASM is down and not up.
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 5757
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 5:53 am

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 4):
Better question - how does AS respond since this is aiming for their loyal customers.

With the flight times provided by the O.P. it looks just like the times DL had when they had the PDX hub, these are clearly geared towards Asia connections, which New England is currently very popular with Chinese tourists & no wonder with all the new non-stops that are being offered to BOS on multiple Chinese carriers.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Starts April 2016
SEA-BOS 1100am 7:30pm DL968 737-800
BOS-SEA 0700am 1015am DL2363 737-800

It does make me wonder how much money can be made when there are already several new Asian carriers serving BOS who are all vying for the traffic that currently exists, the fares would need to be quite low to compete for the tourist dollars into BOS, but I guess DL may only be interested in the business travelers.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 42):
With SkyMiles being what it is, I doubt many on AS would willingly switch.

I know which program I dropped & donated my miles off of this January. There is no reason a loyal AS flyer would change to Skymiles. Since the flight times are not real conducive to SEA business travelers, I'm guessing AS won't lose many SEA based travelers on this route, which is AAG's core group of travelers anyway.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 6:09 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
As I predicted in the OAG thread last week, DL is being forced into expanding the SEA hub toward the East by AS adding East spokes. I say "forced" because DL said pretty clearly that originally the spokes being added were only to feed Asia. BOS to Asia via Seattle is considerably out of the way versus other Delta options.

Given the level of competition in the market I'd say it is going to be financially challenged. At least they are starting it going into peak season. Daytime operation. Uses one whole aircraft. Wonder if B6 will respond?

Absolutely no surprise to see this added. This AS/DL war for the local SEA market is fun to watch. One carrier fires a salvo, and the other fires right back. This is DL having to fire back - the long lead time indicates that. I can't imagine this route being profitable, but it had to be done to try win the locals.

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Having said all of that, I continue to say that in the long term and with enough loss-leading DL cannot be stopped unless Wall Street pulls the plug on loss-leading in SEA through stock downgrades. I do not expect Wall Street to do that.

Totally agree. I don't see a likely scenario where DL leaves. They'll bleed for years if need be. They're too big for SEA to kill them. It's just a scratch. For an example I thought of this...

Quoting cmb320 (Reply 13):

It took Delta years to become profitable in NYC as a whole but they had a plan and stuck to it. Seattle plan is no different. Delta isn't going anywhere.

I agree. And NYC is likely still a negative on an opportunity cost basis. But DL will stick it out to "win" what they think is an important market.

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 37):
The DL haters will jump for joy the day Richard leaves but it will be a big deal for the employees. We love Richard. I also don't see him leaving anytime soon.

Maybe a good idea to qualify that "we". Some employees love him. Some don't. They just keep their mouths shut.
 
User avatar
EA CO AS
Posts: 15799
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 6:53 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 44):
they can respond quicker to market dynamics and roll out a new product like true E+ MUCH faster than Delta can. They need to do something here. And fast.

Surveys and focus groups of elite-level fliers with AS are already ongoing to determine what sort of E+ or equivalent product they would like.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
syncmaster
Posts: 1926
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2002 9:55 am

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 7:25 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 27):
bookings are so weak

Do you have a source for this information?
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13565
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: DL Adds SEA-BOS W/737-800 In April 2016

Sun May 24, 2015 7:45 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 40):
Is it supposed be meant to scare AS? Doubtful.

   If anything, it gives AS plenty of time to prep and adjust.



Quoting Thomaas (Reply 42):
With SkyMiles being what it is, I doubt many on AS would willingly switch.

Well, it depends. Anyone buying coach fares out of pocket, would be royally screwed at DL. Sad, but true.

But HVFs, spending big dollars on short(ish) hauls? They'd make out like a bandit under SkyMiles... which is probably what DL is after anyway.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos