Rumor: EK Has Plans For DXB-LHR-USA

adamh8297 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:21 pm

On another forum, there's an insider with a strong source that EK will launch a DXB-LHR-USA flight shortly. It would be LHR's 6th flight with EK.

This source has been dead on with predictions such as DXB-BOS and DXB-ORD.

I'm guessing its going to be JFK with A380 with BOS (77W or smaller) or ORD as dark horses.

ORDTLV2414 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Thread starter):
r ORD as dark horses.

What are dark horses?

flyby519 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting ORDTLV2414 (Reply 1):

Unlikely candidates
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=dark+horse

adamh8297 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:29 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):

Thinking of the true definition of dark horse - I would say ORD is the dark horse here and BOS would be a viable candidate (though the second frequency of BOS-DXB makes this less likely in my opinion).

thekorean · Fri May 29, 2015 4:30 pm

Do they have fifth freedom rights out of UK?

jcarv · Fri May 29, 2015 4:30 pm

There is a LHR-BOS slot available out there. No one has been awarded it publicly yet.

richcandy · Fri May 29, 2015 4:31 pm

Are they likely to get permission to fly LHR-USA?

Its not as if there is lack of capacity between Heathrow and North America.

Alex

flyby519 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting jcarv (Reply 5):

I think BOS would be a likely candidate. The second daily BOS-DXB wouldn't canibalize any possible BOS-LHR traffic.

qf789 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting jcarv (Reply 5):
There is a LHR-BOS slot available out there. No one has been awarded it publicly yet.

If its going to be their 6th daily flight operating DXB-LHR, the 6th flight (the one being proposed here) continuing onto the US they would need a slot pair for to/from DXB. Where would this be coming from?

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 4:42 pm

If anything I would say the BOS slot! The DL CEO would likely stroke out. To add further injury EK should hook up with AS for feed to really deliver a one two blow!

chrisnh · Fri May 29, 2015 4:43 pm

Quoting jcarv (Reply 5):
There is a LHR-BOS slot available out there. No one has been awarded it publicly yet.

[Edited 2015-05-29 09:53:56]

B747forever · Fri May 29, 2015 4:43 pm

How about flying to LAX? Would love to see the reaction from AA/BA/DL/VS/UA/NZ.

adamh8297 · Fri May 29, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting jcarv (Reply 5):

There is a LHR-BOS slot available out there. No one has been awarded it publicly yet.

There were also three NYC slots as well but it depends on the amount of NYC-LHR Flights being operated.

http://www.acl-uk.org/latestNews.aspx?id=183

Quoting qf789 (Reply 8):
If its going to be their 6th daily flight operating DXB-LHR, the 6th flight (the one being proposed here) continuing onto the US they would need a slot pair for to/from DXB. Where would this be coming from?

As with all things LHR - that is always a good question. EK's deep pockets perhaps?

ASA · Fri May 29, 2015 4:46 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 4):

Do they have fifth freedom rights out of UK?

Quoting jcarv (Reply 5):

There is a LHR-BOS slot available out there. No one has been awarded it publicly yet.

True ... but won't EK still have to get fifth freedom rights from both US and UK authorities?

Quoting adamh8297 (Thread starter):

On another forum, there's an insider with a strong source that EK will launch a DXB-LHR-USA flight shortly. It would be LHR's 6th flight with EK.

This source has been dead on with predictions such as DXB-BOS and DXB-ORD.

I'm guessing its going to be JFK with A380 with BOS (77W or smaller) or ORD as dark horses.

Didn't Willie Walsh just say a few days ago that he welcomes the competition from ME3 airlines ... so EK decided to bring it to him

ASA · Fri May 29, 2015 4:53 pm

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 9):
If anything I would say the BOS slot! The DL CEO would likely stroke out. To add further injury EK should hook up with AS for feed to really deliver a one two blow!

well ... didn't DL give that up a few years ago and reduced to 1x daily? VS and DL together could have taken it up together ... but they didn't.

BOS-LHR on an EK 77W ... hmmm

... as opposed to the 4x daily BA widebodies. Maybe in a few years both airlines will deploy the A380 on this route

chrisnh · Fri May 29, 2015 4:55 pm

Quoting ASA (Reply 14):
well ... didn't DL give that up a few years ago and reduced to 1x daily? VS and DL together could have taken it up together ... but they didn't.

Very good point. DL would be 'stroking itself' if true. They can't whine about a new entrant on BOS-LHR if it was within their power to prevent it.

AT · Fri May 29, 2015 4:56 pm

I'm confused- does EK have rights to fly UK to NYC in the first place?

But regardless, it would be a great thing for us- i.e., the flying public-- even if it's one more headache for the US3.

HeeseokKoo · Fri May 29, 2015 5:00 pm

Quoting AT (Reply 16):
I'm confused- does EK have rights to fly UK to NYC in the first place?

My other question is, are those slots divested due to BA-AA JV available to everyone including non US or non EU airlines?

SonomaFlyer · Fri May 29, 2015 5:08 pm

I don't think EK has fifth freedom rights from LHR to the USA. Get serious folks, one of the most slot constricted airports in the world doesn't have a lot of spare usable slots lying around. Why would they do a 5th freedom slot as opposed to a standard one?

thekorean · Fri May 29, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 18):

Perhaps via LGW? They are dying for JFK service.

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:19 pm

Didn't AF have a LAX to LHR briefly?

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:22 pm

If AF can operate a LAX to LHR then same rules apply to EK.

migair54 · Fri May 29, 2015 5:25 pm

The USA via Europe has been rumored for a while, but all the rumours were pointing towards Scandinavia.

I don´t think that now that they have launched the second daily to BOS they need to start DXB-LHR-BOS, very limited
connectivity in LHR and no pax from DXB because they have the 2 daily non-stop. Maybe if EK decides to start something like DEN, SLC, DTW via LHR where the non-stop is not available.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 18):
one of the most slot constricted airports in the world doesn't have a lot of spare usable slots lying around.

They can buy them from someone, but in this case it has to be 2 pairs, one for DXB and other for USA flight.

cougar15 · Fri May 29, 2015 5:26 pm

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 21):
If AF can operate a LAX to LHR then same rules apply to EK.

no! AF is an EU carrier with appropriate rights to operate from any EU Airport! (if I recall correctly - the Service u mention - was some Business only Service with a ´75)! The same does not apply to EK, who are not a EU/EEC based carrier!

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:29 pm

EK could strnghten it ties with AS and BOS! Think about it add a flight from SEA, PDX, LAX and another city or two to have cooneting service to this BOS flight and EK! Que Richard Anderson's melt down in one two three, go....

qm001 · Fri May 29, 2015 5:30 pm

In the highly unlikely event that this will ever happen... what about EWR, or... ATL ?!?!?!?

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:30 pm

Actually the AF service was a wide body with all classes of service.

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:32 pm

AF Drops LHR-LAX, Starts LHR-JFK (by Pilot21 Oct 8 2008 in Civil Aviation)

airbazar · Fri May 29, 2015 5:34 pm

I don't see the point of serving JFK/BOS/ORD from LHR. However I could see them go after routes with little to no competition such as LHR-RDU, LHR-DEN, LHR-DTW, or any MAN-U.S. route.

[email protected] · Fri May 29, 2015 5:36 pm

As mentioned, any EU-registered airline can fly to the US from any EU city, so AF starting LHR-LAX. It didn't begin or end in France because it didn't need to. If FR started its standalone longer-haul LCC it could fly to the US from any EU city, whether Dublin or Madrid or Rome or Stockholm or London or wherever. As a non-EU airline, EK would need to secure fifth freedom traffic rights to carry passengers/cargo on London-USA on services starting/ending in its own country. If they can't get these traffic rights they can't carry passengers/cargo on the LON-USA-LON sectors. So it entirely hinges on that, plus, of course, the ability to get adequate slots and the usual commercial requirements.

[Edited 2015-05-29 10:38:15]

luv2fly · Fri May 29, 2015 5:37 pm

The point is a vacant BOS LHR is available for the use.

[email protected] · Fri May 29, 2015 5:38 pm

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 30):
The point is a vacant BOS LHR is available for the use.

But without doubt not by a non-EU or non-US-based airline.

[Edited 2015-05-29 10:39:09]

sierra3tango · Fri May 29, 2015 5:41 pm

Well BA has a 5th Freedom route out of the UAE - AUH / MCT, last time I took it 38mins flying time

Wonder if EK has such 5th Freedom rights out of the UK, BUT QF does and it has (IIRC) slots rented out
to others.

migair54 · Fri May 29, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 21):
If AF can operate a LAX to LHR then same rules apply to EK.

Air France can do it because they can use the open skies policy between USA and EU, so any airline form the EU or USA can fly from any country of EU to USA and back, but this is not aplicable to non EU-USA airlines.

I think AF used to fly the B777 on the route.

[email protected] · Fri May 29, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 32):
BUT QF does

Not to and from the US, though. The EU-US enjoy open skies, but only for EU and US airlines.

Then again, KU still flies LHR-JFK, so clearly they have the required traffic rights.

The point is, it's necessary to determine the legality and viability of EK gaining the rights before consideration of any routes.

[Edited 2015-05-29 10:45:01]

sierra3tango · Fri May 29, 2015 5:47 pm

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 34):
Not to and from the US, though

As a 2 stop (say) SYD / JFK routing? (with off course a EK flight no tag)

Thought CX also had such rights but never used them?

David_itl · Fri May 29, 2015 5:50 pm

http://m.arabianbusiness.com/emirate...s-uk-us-direct-flights-510527.html has them sayiing some right from UK regionals. There appears to be no block on who can fly the remedy BOS-LHR route.

qf789 · Fri May 29, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 32):
Wonder if EK has such 5th Freedom rights out of the UK, BUT QF does and it has (IIRC) slots rented out
to others.

Yes, the QF slots were recently discussed in the Australia Aviation forum. QF has 4 slot pairs of which 2 are used by QF and the other 2 leased by BA. BA leased them at the start of the 2012 northern summer.

I found an 2011 schedule of the times QF operated in and out of LHR, though they may not exactly be the same times now.

Arriving into LHR
540
635
700
1330

Departing from LHR
1205
2130
2215
2230

QF currently uses the lunch time arrival/departure slot and one early morning arrival and one late night departure.

The slots EK could use would be early morning arrivals and late night departures though I don't think these times would be good for a US service as the aircraft would spend some time on the ground at final destination, correct me if I am wrong.

Does anyone have any idea how long BA leased these slots for?

sierra3tango · Fri May 29, 2015 6:12 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 37):
The slots EK could use would be early morning arrivals and late night departures though I don't think these times would be good for a US service as the aircraft would spend some time on the ground at final destination, correct me if I am wrong.

Yes but EK could juggle some of their current (5 pairs) of slots to fit

29erUSA187 · Fri May 29, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 18):

This, and the fact that IAG's willie Walsh was pretty complacent with EK at LHR, but this may be a step to far for him. I don't understand why the ME3 feel the need to invade routes that in no way involve their home countries. I get the whole 5th freedom thing, but this is unfair to a whole host of airlines

AT · Fri May 29, 2015 6:29 pm

We're assuming this will be a NEW flight but what if it's a rearrangement of an existing one?
For example, switch one of the Boston or JFK flights from nonstop to via London?

chrisnh · Fri May 29, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting AT (Reply 40):
We're assuming this will be a NEW flight but what if it's a rearrangement of an existing one?
For example, switch one of the Boston or JFK flights from nonstop to via London?

Also, who's to say it would be LHR? Boston isn't connected to any of the other U.K. dots: Birmingham, Glasgow, Manchester, Newcastle. Those are all 757 routes to any U.S. carrier wishing to try, and EK would waltz in with a 777.

[Edited 2015-05-29 11:36:34]

TC957 · Fri May 29, 2015 6:37 pm

Judging by how high fares are this summer on transatlantic routes, I'm not surprized EK wants a piece of that high yielding traffic. I just had clients needing to go LHR - IAD in late July and it's over a thousand pounds now.
If having EK on key transatlantic routes out of LHR can bring fares down to sensible levels I and my clients will all for it.

ripcordd · Fri May 29, 2015 6:48 pm

Not going to happen move along nothing to see here next

B747forever · Fri May 29, 2015 6:56 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 42):
Judging by how high fares are this summer on transatlantic routes, I'm not surprized EK wants a piece of that high yielding traffic.

Its all because of the JVs. You basically have 3 operators doing transaltantic, BA/AA/AY + AF/KL/DL + LH group/UA. Just this past week yet another competitor, EI, has been eliminated on the transatlantic market.

ManchesterMAN · Fri May 29, 2015 7:02 pm

Has anyone considered this could be a cargo route? EK fly a number of USA-DXB transatlantic routes via various European airports. Currently EK has two freighter flights per week to LHR but loads have been somewhat weak recently. A US tag-on would help for sure, particularly if they pick up one or two big contracts.

RJNUT · Fri May 29, 2015 7:21 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 42):
having EK on key transatlantic routes out of LHR can bring fares down to sensible levels I and my clients will all for it.

have you looked at the price break down ?,..its the excessive taxation that drives these numbers, not the base fare!

jfk777 · Fri May 29, 2015 7:35 pm

Why has this been discussed so much, there is as much chance of Emirates flying from LHR to USA as the Queen being the last English monarch and the country becoming a republic.

MPadhi · Fri May 29, 2015 7:37 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 39):
but this is unfair to a whole host of airlines

What makes you think it's unfair?

AABB777 · Fri May 29, 2015 7:41 pm

Perhaps EK could finally get into the ATL market by launching DXB-LHR-ATL.

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