User avatar
Btblue
Posts: 696
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:57 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:32 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 96):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 93):
And yet now they're talking about 30 or so customers who want almost exactly that.

What there was no business case for was a 757neo. And for an all-new plane, 30 customers might still not make a business case for spending $10-15billion.

Where have you got $10 - 15billion from?
 
User avatar
NWAROOSTER
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting futureorthopod (Reply 99):
Dare I ask, does this represent the commencement of a 757MAX (or 757MAX-like) study?

NO........ This not the commencement of a resurrection of a 757 in any form or manner. Basically it is that Boeing cannot make any more significant enhancements or improvement to the 737 currently being built or finalized before production begins. Boeing has pushed the envelope as far it can with the 737 and Airbus is right on their heals. If Boeing does not think "New Aircraft" Airbus is going to start to do some serious damage to Boeing and start gaining new customers.
Airbus's biggest boat anchor is the A380, which is starting to run its course. Sales of the A380 are going to fall, just like the 747 have.   
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:50 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 90):

That's an airline choice. Don't confuse that with program intent which was quite clear.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 92):

Some? Try all but one!   

Only so they could provide a higher percentage of premium seats. The trade off is the same.

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 98):
Hmm... 240 seems like a lot of seats from what I thought the mission was which was in line with the 752s doing trans-Atlantic missions. The composite technology from the 787 development, could it not be applied to a new narrowbody airframe? I know it would require retooling, but it seems doable. During that run up time, the engine manufacturers can find space to develop a proper next generation engine for the airframe.

It would appear that the market is there, but I agree that it is not 1000 airframes unless they can get cargo operators to sign on to a modified variant.

It'll have a nominal capacity between the 757-200 and 757-300 and just above the 757-300.

[Edited 2015-06-08 17:55:56]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15059
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:57 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 87):

Whatever numbers you want to use are fine. But airlines are converting 788 sales to 789 and don't seem to be retiring 767s as they take 787s. THAT is what replacement means.

The 757 had 15-20% on the 727 as well, with increased range by 20%. But airlines didn't retire 727A as the 757 arrived. They actually wanted a 189 seat aircraft with 727 range for the regional missions. Not a 215 seat with 707 range.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:58 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 24):
Quoting FlyBigDeltaJets (Reply 19):
Yet the 757 didn't do real well in Asia at all, must be the markets as they have grown over the past few decades.

Several Chinese airlines operated B757's, Air China, China Southern, Shanghai, etc

Even so, only slightly less than 8% of 757s went to Asian customers.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 64):
The 787 is no more a 767 replacement than the 757 was a 727 replacement. Both may have initially been marketed as such but due to mission and weight creep that's not what they became.

The 787 is certainly a 767 replacement for some carriers. AC is one, also ET

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 90):
Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 87):


Other than JAL, every single 787 operator had chosen 9 across, not just "some airlines" like you allege

One of ANA's 787-8 seating configurations is 8-abreast in Y.
http://www.ana.co.jp/wws/japan/e/loc...inflight/seatmap/detail.html?c=b8r
 
User avatar
BasilFawlty
Posts: 922
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 11:23 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:03 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 40):
How would you want to do that? The 757 assembly line is gone and the supply chain does not exist anymore.

Reinstate both the assembly line and supply chain perhaps?   Most likely much cheaper than designing something completely new from scratch.
'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 103):



Whatever numbers you want to use are fine. But airlines are converting 788 sales to 789 and don't seem to be retiring 767s as they take 787s. THAT is what replacement means.

The 757 had 15-20% on the 727 as well, with increased range by 20%. But airlines didn't retire 727A as the 757 arrived. They actually wanted a 189 seat aircraft with 727 range for the regional missions. Not a 215 seat with 707 range.

Those are the design numbers that reflect Boeing intent. Further in service numbers reflect a 767 replacement. So I'll stick with them thanks. Average number of 767 seats per departure is about 260 right now and the 787 is 242. It will certainly eclipse it over time, but that's growth. The only reason 767s are hanging around is relatively cheap go juice and 787/A350 delays. The 787 is the 767 replacement none the less. Argue away.  
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:51 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 106):
The only reason 767s are hanging around is relatively cheap go juice and 787/A350 delays. The 787 is the 767 replacement none the less. Argue away.

I think the point is that many airlines see it that way but many don't. I think you would agree that the 787 is not a one-stop solution. The 762s for example probably won't be replaced by 787s. Likewise the 763s that are serving domestic US routes (like with DL)? Not a ton of widebody aircraft on domestic routes nowadays and I would suggest that we not wait for 787s to fill that role either. Things change.

I believe that 787s, in their infancy, are best used on routes where airlines can differentiate their services and that tends to not be on 767 routes, currently. I do believe that will change. However, I don't think the 787 will be the perfect replacement for every 767, nor do I think the A321LR will be the ideal replacement for the 757. To say that the XXX is the replacement for XXX is overly simplistic in my opinion. Its more complex.

tortugamon
 
quickmover
Posts: 2201
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 4:28 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:55 am

Are the 767-200s more expensive to operate than a 757-200 or 300? Continental had some of the last ones built. Perhaps some of the low cycle 767s could fill a need here.
 
User avatar
bluefltspecial
Posts: 551
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:27 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 2):
About bleeping time!!! They should've been on this five years ago before airlines like DL and AA began replacing their 75's with 321's!

I think that if they do develop this, the DL and AA A321s will stick domestic, and the new Boeings would be used for international... just a thought.
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3665
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:13 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 106):
Average number of 767 seats per departure is about 260 right now and the 787 is 242.

260? Where do you get that? When you compare configurations among major carriers with both aircraft, the 787 is in a larger class. The very reason airlines are inquiring with Boeing about these specs is because they want a true 767 replacement. The 787 was intended to be one, but it clearly isn't now and won't be later.

Quoting quickmover (Reply 108):
Are the 767-200s more expensive to operate than a 757-200 or 300? Continental had some of the last ones built. Perhaps some of the low cycle 767s could fill a need here.

Yes, very much so. It's why the 762 is gone from UA. You're better off either flying a different aircraft or not flying the route at all.
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:20 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 110):

260? Where do you get that? When you compare configurations among major carriers with both aircraft, the 787 is in a larger class. The very reason airlines are inquiring with Boeing about these specs is because they want a true 767 replacement. The 787 was intended to be one, but it clearly isn't now and won't be later. .

OAG database. Yesterday's worldwide schedule to be specific.

It clearly is now the 767 replacement and forever will be.

[Edited 2015-06-08 21:21:43]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3536
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:22 am

So what kind of time frame would we be looking at for an official announcement of their intended track, whether NSA+MOM or single modular design?

Looking back on their last clean-sheet:

January 2003: 7E7 program announced
December 2003: Formal board approval to offer
April 2004: Program launch with order of 50 for ANA

This article from last November states they are eying a 2018 NSA launch. Would it then be reasonable, based on the 787 (7E7) timeline, that we might expect a program announcement next year or 2017 at the latest? Or would this ongoing MOM problem (NSA "mission creep"?) cause the whole thing to shift to the right?
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3536
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:35 am

Another take on the same topic...

Boeing Sees Airlines Craving Longest-Ever Narrow-Body Plane

Quote:

June 8, 2015 — 9:00 AM EDT

Boeing Co. is considering the largest-ever narrow-body jetliner to fill a void in the commercial aircraft market left when production of the 757 model ended a decade ago.

Plugging the gap between the 737, Boeing’s biggest single-aisle plane, and the smallest 787 Dreamliner is increasingly important for Chicago-based Boeing. Customers like American Airlines have been turning to an Airbus Group SE offering for U.S. transcontinental flying once handled by the 757.

------

Boeing remains unconvinced that sales would be strong enough to support the required multibillion-dollar investment, Wojick said. Then there’s the risk of undermining the 737 Max family, upgraded jets that will debut starting in 2017.
Source
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:48 am

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 112):

I think it depends on the materials. I'm sure they'd like to go composite, and they've got that down at this point. Given the 777x and 787-10 status maybe a mid 2016 show and tell with fall launch? I think the program is further along than people think. This got back burnered with 787 delays, but I'm not sure they stopped working on it. There could already be a significant amount of product refinement going on. It'll be interesting to see what it is when it is revealed.
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2547
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:06 am

If they definitely want a single aisle plane, Boeing should design it with 18 inch seats in a 6-abreast configuration with a somewhat wider aisle than exists in the economy section of the 757. If the aisle were wide enough to let 2 people pass each other, it would be quite useful on long flghts. They should consider offering a 5-abreast seating in premium economy; that would allow 21.6 inches of width per seat.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7086
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:25 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 80):
I don't think you do meetings with ~30 airlines to talk about one specific concept unless you are 'serious' about finding a solution. I agree that it sounds like they have not found one yet.

I don't believe they had meetings with 30 airlines to talk about one concept. The article suggests that the question was fairly open inasmuch as it asks "What would you want to see in a plane bigger than the MAX

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
"“We’ve probably seen over 30 customers and talked to them about really what they are looking for in an airplane bigger than the 737 MAX family,”

As per your OP

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 88):
I think Airbus has missed the boat with the neo. They should have launched a 321 stretch, not by much, but just slightly longer than a 752, with enough fuel for about 26T of fuel, with no cargo tanks.

My view is that this boat hasn't sailed yet.
Fast forward to c. 20205-2030
Take an A321
Add a 2nd generation GTF like the RR Advance with a c. 10% SFC improvement over the current GTF
Add a new CFRP wing with folding tips, offering the 26t of fuel you suggest
And stretch to c. 752 length or a fraction longer.
5000Nm should be possible on an TOW of about 110t tops.

I think this is an advantage the A320 series has. The above could be fairly easily done, and quickly too, compared to a clean-sheet

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 93):
And yet now they're talking about 30 or so customers who want almost exactly that.

I'm not sure the replies were that unequivocal, given the open nature of the question...

Rgds
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18505
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:23 am

Quoting btblue (Reply 100):
Where have you got $10 - 15billion from?

That's what an all-new plane would cost. Minimum. Possibly a lot more if they don't learn their 787 lessons.

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 102):
Only so they could provide a higher percentage of premium seats. The trade off is the same.

The reason doesn't change your misrepresentation that "some airlines" is actually "all airlines except one" have gone for 9-across in the 787.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 104):
One of ANA's 787-8 seating configurations is 8-abreast in Y.

OK, one airline and one other plane are 8-across, the rest are 9-across. To the end of May that's just 7% of delivered 787s at 8-across and that figure gets smaller with every delivery.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5349
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:42 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 58):

This is exactly where the RR Ultrafan is being aimed - a 45k lb GTF with 10%-15% better SFC than the PW1000 GTF.
So I don't think they'll be leaving the field clear anytime soon

Didn't know this. Good. I have been hopefully Rollers would get back in the game after leaving IAE....
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9388
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:39 am

If one thinks of older frames to fill this "gab", than of the three frames 757-200, 757-300 and 767-200, the 767 would be the worst starting point regarding CASM.
Any "757max" would beat the pants of the 767 regarding economy of operation. As, according to A.net laws, the 757 is unreveivable, the solution would be a new big narrow body.
 
packsonflight
Posts: 386
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:55 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:46 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 116):
My view is that this boat hasn't sailed yet.
Fast forward to c. 20205-2030
Take an A321
Add a 2nd generation GTF like the RR Advance with a c. 10% SFC improvement over the current GTF
Add a new CFRP wing with folding tips, offering the 26t of fuel you suggest
And stretch to c. 752 length or a fraction longer.
5000Nm should be possible on an TOW of about 110t tops.

I think this is an advantage the A320 series has. The above could be fairly easily done, and quickly too, compared to a clean-sheet

This possibility is stopping the MOM in its tracks, because Airbus can do this for the third of the cost Boeing has to cough up for a brand new design.

I believe Airbus will go ahead with new wing for the 321/322 at some point, and they will adopt the 2H2E system architecture developed for the A380/A350. The new wing design will later be used for the future narrow body platform.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:59 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 106):

None of UA's 767s stuff even 260, so how do you see worldwide weighted average seats per departure being 260 seats ?
The most common 767 is the 763, and most configs globally are 190-220 seats.

Can you show us the math instead of citing a random black box source ? (Unless your data set is skewed by those really high density domestic Japanese 767s which aren't representative of the median use case)

Also, your average of 242seats for 787 fail to account for the fact that most upcoming deliveries and order backlogs are 789 and 78J, so that average figure will grow significantly larger over the next 5 years.
 
S75752
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:51 am

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 113):

Boeing Sees Airlines Craving Longest-Ever Narrow-Body Plane

Only 20% longer range? That's not gonna cut it. 25% longer is more like it, or maybe more depending on development time.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 117):

That's what an all-new plane would cost. Minimum. Possibly a lot more if they don't learn their 787 lessons.

They wouldn't do a Narrowbody as an all new plane, unless it's actually the 737 replacement we're talking about (NSA), which I don't think it is. I think it'd take lessons from the 787, while trying to stay close-ish to the 737 for commonality, though would still be a fair bit different for obvious reasons.
 
321neoLR
Posts: 36
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:16 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:14 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 116):

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 80):
I don't think you do meetings with ~30 airlines to talk about one specific concept unless you are 'serious' about finding a solution. I agree that it sounds like they have not found one yet.

I don't believe they had meetings with 30 airlines to talk about one concept. The article suggests that the question was fairly open inasmuch as it asks "What would you want to see in a plane bigger than the MAX

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
"“We’ve probably seen over 30 customers and talked to them about really what they are looking for in an airplane bigger than the 737 MAX family,”

As per your OP

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 88):
I think Airbus has missed the boat with the neo. They should have launched a 321 stretch, not by much, but just slightly longer than a 752, with enough fuel for about 26T of fuel, with no cargo tanks.

My view is that this boat hasn't sailed yet.
Fast forward to c. 20205-2030
Take an A321
Add a 2nd generation GTF like the RR Advance with a c. 10% SFC improvement over the current GTF
Add a new CFRP wing with folding tips, offering the 26t of fuel you suggest
And stretch to c. 752 length or a fraction longer.
5000Nm should be possible on an TOW of about 110t tops.

I think this is an advantage the A320 series has. The above could be fairly easily done, and quickly too, compared to a clean-sheet

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 93):
And yet now they're talking about 30 or so customers who want almost exactly that.

I'm not sure the replies were that unequivocal, given the open nature of the question...

Rgds

I think you are right, Airbus can develop a 322 platform, keeping the 320-321 as is, at a relatively low cost. The 737 can't improve, and if they have to design a totally new model, it won't be a simple integration to an airline. Pilots which are the major expense for multi fleet, can fly the 319,320,321, 322 on one rating, and also 330 or the 350 via a ccq.

If you compare Boeing product, you can have the 737-700,800,900, but the 900 or even the 900er can't match the 321LR for range with 180-200 pax. If you throw the 787 into the mix, pilots cannot fly the 737, and ccq to 787, it is completely different systems. A new mom aircraft would be a new rating, a new model, which would damage the 737.

This is where Airbus has the advantage. The 321LR is just a stop gap, I think to halt Boeing developing a new model.

Will Airbus stretch the 321? Will they be able to beat the 757 performance with a full load?

I know a small airline that operate 737,757,and 767. They are replacing them with 319,320,321LR, and 330. All pilots can fly every model, with no extra training required annually. They currently have a group for 737,757 and 767.

Even with the increased cost of the new aircraft, the recurring costs and number of crew required would vastly reduce. This is where Airbus has the lead.

Another former national carrier has 319, 320,321,757,330, currently requiring 3 different sets of pilots. With the 321lr, they can have one set of pilots for narrow body, and one for wide body, while having the reduced fuel burn compared to the 757.

Boeing would have to create an entire new narrow body based on the 787 systems, with the sizes of the 737-700,800,900,up to 757-300, which is the exact same type, with the same systems, then Boeing can match Airbus with a product line.

But this would destroy the 737 for good, while costing a huge amount of money.

The downfall is also compounded, when airlines would have to add this new entire fleet to keep comanality, while Airbus just has to add the longer 321 to obtain the same result.

Very interesting times ahead.
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:23 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 121):

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 106):

None of UA's 767s stuff even 260, so how do you see worldwide weighted average seats per departure being 260 seats ?
The most common 767 is the 763, and most configs globally are 190-220 seats.

Can you show us the math instead of citing a random black box source ? (Unless your data set is skewed by those really high density domestic Japanese 767s which aren't representative of the median use case)

Also, your average of 242seats for 787 fail to account for the fact that most upcoming deliveries and order backlogs are 789 and 78J, so that average figure will grow significantly larger over the next 5 years.


Ask OAG. It was their data. Of course it includes Japanese high capacity markets, it includes them because 787s are replacing them as well. Why would someone skew data like that? You want a valid comparison, you make one. You don't exclude something.

Apparently you ignored the rest of my comments about growth. This is a 767 replacement just as the 778/779 is the replacement for the 772/773. Same category, slightly larger.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 117):

The reason doesn't change your misrepresentation that "some airlines" is actually "all airlines except one" have gone for 9-across in the 787.


Except it's not "all airlines except one". If an airline chooses 9-across so they can get more seats into an aircraft designed for 8-across or to offset a large business section that doesn't suddenly change its category. You can cram 300 seats into a 764, that doesn't mean it's a 777 replacement. You can cram 400-500 into a 777, that doesn't mean it's a 747 or A380 replacement either.

Quoting scbriml,reply
[quote=MSPNWA
(Reply 110):
The very reason airlines are inquiring with Boeing about these specs is because they want a true 767 replacement. The 787 was intended to be one, but it clearly isn't now and won't be later.

Actually, they just want a 757/762 replacement. The cost of 787 ownership has grown to the point that the -8 economics don't pencil out all that well so the -9 has become the default. The -8 is still a great plane, but the delays have damn near killed it. The -3 which got killed off sat 240. I still have the old seat maps. It was a perfect 767 replacement, airfield performance was going to be spectacular. I think Boeings biggest question. Is this three aircraft with one tube and two wings replacing the 757/762 and 737 or two tubes and two wings replacing the 757/762 and 737. That decision will be huge.

[Edited 2015-06-09 06:02:43]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 22949
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:38 pm

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 88):
Boeing should have extended the landing gear like the 763, that fits into the existing gear bay.

I have to imagine this just isn't feasible, otherwise we'd have seen it along with all the other things that made the 739ER different than the 739.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 103):

The 757 had 15-20% on the 727 as well, with increased range by 20%. But airlines didn't retire 727A as the 757 arrived. They actually wanted a 189 seat aircraft with 727 range for the regional missions. Not a 215 seat with 707 range.

The histories I've read is Boeing started with a straight 727 replacement then launch customers BA and EA lobbied for a bigger aircraft, and the rest is history. Doing so left a nice gap for Airbus to fill with the A320.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 110):
The very reason airlines are inquiring with Boeing about these specs is because they want a true 767 replacement. The 787 was intended to be one, but it clearly isn't now and won't be later.

We also have posts here saying Boeing initially started with a pure 767 replacement but airlines wanted a larger aircraft. What we ended up with is an almost perfect A330 replacement.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 95):
I have made a table that indicates where most aircraft are in terms of capacity and range. I have inserted a blue box that roughly indicates where a possible opportunity lies.

Yep, MOM is aimed right at that gap.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 116):
My view is that this boat hasn't sailed yet.
Fast forward to c. 20205-2030
Take an A321
Add a 2nd generation GTF like the RR Advance with a c. 10% SFC improvement over the current GTF
Add a new CFRP wing with folding tips, offering the 26t of fuel you suggest
And stretch to c. 752 length or a fraction longer.
5000Nm should be possible on an TOW of about 110t tops.

I think this is an advantage the A320 series has. The above could be fairly easily done, and quickly too, compared to a clean-sheet

Indeed so. 737 is on it's fourth major iteration (Jurassic, Classic, NG, MAX) and A320 surely can have another bite of the apple. What you describe is what the 777X is to the 777W/L which is the third major iteration of the 777 family.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 121):
Can you show us the math instead of citing a random black box source ? (Unless your data set is skewed by those really high density domestic Japanese 767s which aren't representative of the median use case)

Also, your average of 242seats for 787 fail to account for the fact that most upcoming deliveries and order backlogs are 789 and 78J, so that average figure will grow significantly larger over the next 5 years.

I think:


Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 111):
OAG database. Yesterday's worldwide schedule to be specific.

describes it pretty well. Look at yesterday's worldwide schedule, find all 767s, calculate number of seats per departure and divide by number of departures.

And yes, he does say:

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 106):
Average number of 767 seats per departure is about 260 right now and the 787 is 242. It will certainly eclipse it over time, but that's growth. The only reason 767s are hanging around is relatively cheap go juice and 787/A350 delays. The 787 is the 767 replacement none the less. Argue away.

So indeed he states the numbers will shift over time.

Also, of course it includes high-density Japanese domestic/regional flights, but that means it does represent the "median use case" because it's exactly what a certain number of 767s (some of the last pax frames off the line, btw) do all day.

Boeing did the 787-10 as a straight stretch because they're finding airlines are going to be using them as people movers and so additional range is not needed.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9939
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:51 pm

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 120):
This possibility is stopping the MOM in its tracks, because Airbus can do this for the third of the cost Boeing has to cough up for a brand new design.

Which in the grand scheme of things is not relevant to Boeing, they cannot offer an Airbus product to fill the hole in their line up, either they fill the hole or abandon the option of serving their clients who need a product in that segment.

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 123):
Will Airbus stretch the 321? Will they be able to beat the 757 performance with a full load?

Since the 757 is no longer in production meaning new or additional users cannot obtain frames, the metric of measuring performance against the frame is becoming less and less important. The A321 will be setting its own standards and will most likely have its numbers compared to the lower models (737 / A320) where it offers alternatives on capacity.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:52 pm

There is nothing that Airbus has done that Boeing won't have forseen all along.

Thats why they always wanted to launch 'all new' and not re engine the 737.But thats what the market asked for so they did.What must be sooo annoying for Boeing is that one of the requests was by Southwest for the -700 MAX (7). This was a model size destined to be dropped for the NSA.But today it appears Southwest has moved away from this size (along with everybody else).Perhaps Boeing should have stuck to its guns and risked all (but perhaps not - hard call).

But they have booked the 1,000's of orders and now they must fly the plane and start the manufacturing process at a rate that meets the booked orders/timings.

At that point (not before I feel) they will 'launch' the NB replacement.

No- 600 no -700 it will be the equavalent to 800/900/'1000' (perhaps a 1100 but not to start with). They will launch in complete reverse to the 787 project starting with the '1000'.(250 pax one class).To ensure that Airbus is not allowed too much free time in that open marketplace and not to concern the customers of the conventional MAX8/9 range.

The really tough job will be the wing IMHO.
Airbus will be able to copy any engine 'move'.It's got to be something that makes the 'conventional' A320 wing design/ and wing box structure obsolete.
Will be interesting to see what it is in a couple of years time.V high aspect Folding?? for 1000/1100 and High aspect with 'simple' BWtips for 800/900 versions later?
 
jayfred
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 12:24 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:00 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 127):
No- 600 no -700 it will be the equavalent to 800/900/'1000' (perhaps a 1100 but not to start with). They will launch in complete reverse to the 787 project starting with the '1000'.(250 pax one class).To ensure that Airbus is not allowed too much free time in that open marketplace and not to concern the customers of the conventional MAX8/9 range.

Yes and no. I do agree that Boeing will likely be willing to cede the -600/-700 capacity market to the Bombardiers and the Embraers and the "NSA" will be a true NB/MOM replacement family (or perhaps set of two families with maximum possible commonality) but absolutely won't start with the '1000' model as you say (unless their 1000 model is a different airframe entirely than the 737-replacement). Designing a family with the intention of doing a double shrink would be suicide to the program and a great way to tarnish the 737MAX and give Airbus a huge advantage. No, if Boeing launches a 250-pax aircraft first, it'll be a different family than an NSA.
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:00 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 127):

I think there is still room for something between the 737-7 and 737-8 that nets150 single class seats and maybe 140 in two class. It's just not very big. I think they offer it as a shrink and shed it if it doesn't sell. The 738 size has become default with the -9 increasing becoming go to so probably two frames a smidge larger than these for growth. That said the -9 airfield performance sucks which is probably what airlines are poking Boeing for something more 757ish.
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
jayfred
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 12:24 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:07 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 129):
That said the -9 airfield performance sucks which is probably what airlines are poking Boeing for something more 757ish.

I mean, have you seen the gear on the A320? That airplane was made to be stretched. I imagine that an NSA launch would go something like you've described, where the launch model sits somewhere between the present day -8 and -9 and then gets stretched twice to make it up into the lower end of that MOM range. Does that give them full market coverage? Maybe not, but it then leaves the door open for a small widebody (3-3-2 or 2-4-2 if you're really packed in? It doesn't really seem like this would be very feasible but I'm no expert on how much extra size that second aisle would add) to cover the gap.

If I'm Boeing I'm not sure how to tackle this. The fact is that there must be a market for an aircraft that can address the gap between the A321 and the existing 767/A330, but going any longer than a 757 with a single aisle seems like it would be a nightmare for loading/unloading. Add that to the fact that it would have to be effectively a clean sheet design and we're looking at a very challenging design problem.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26781
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:19 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 110):
The very reason airlines are inquiring with Boeing about these specs is because they want a true 767 replacement. The 787 was intended to be one, but it clearly isn't now and won't be later.

The 7E7 was intended to be one, but by the time it became the 787, those same airlines had pushed Boeing into making it an A330/A340-200/300 and 777-200ER replacement, instead.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:24 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 124):

Apparently you ignored the rest of my comments about growth. This is a 767 replacement just as the 778/779 is the replacement for the 772/773. Same category, slightly larger.

No I didn't ignore it. Look at the size of the 787-10. If you think that's a 763/764 replacement, that's a really large % of growth. The 787-10 is even larger than the 772, and no one would remotely argue that the 772 replaced 767.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12526
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:14 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 13):
Now what if the real research suggested that the sweet spot was the 757-200 (hell it used to be the sweet spot - what changed so suddenly)? They certainly would not and could not publish those facts if the results were such, now could they. (ie hand the whole market to the A321 NEO LR).

Airlines can buy the A321, what Boeing says or doesn't say can't change that fact.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 21):
Strange, here is discussed a "757 replacement". Is it not an A.net law that the 757 is replaced and that no airline needs an frame in the size between the 737-9max / A321neo and the 787-8?

And now Boeing has been talking with 30 airlines and suddenly this non existing market does exist?

Boeing didn't really say the market existed, or at least not talked about its size, then it also said it was an impossible task. Which it is, long range means you carry lots of fuel, that means you're heavier, that means you need more structure, which again is heavier. There is no way to then get the same economics as a same generation plane flying shorter routes.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 132):
No I didn't ignore it. Look at the size of the 787-10. If you think that's a 763/764 replacement, that's a really large % of growth. The 787-10 is even larger than the 772, and no one would remotely argue that the 772 replaced 767.

A 764 can seat 245 to 375, not that you'd want to do that from a passenger standpoint, but you wouldn't want to shove that many in a 787-10 either. 788 replaces the 762 with growth, the 789 replaces the 763 with growth and the 7810 replaces the 764 with growth. Replacements are never 1 for 1. If that were so, the 737 would still seat 100-130 passengers.

By the way, in 10-across which is the 772 equivalent to a 9-across 787-10, the 772 can seat over 400.

[Edited 2015-06-09 09:09:46]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18505
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:26 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 122):
They wouldn't do a Narrowbody as an all new plane, unless it's actually the 737 replacement we're talking about (NSA), which I don't think it is. I think it'd take lessons from the 787, while trying to stay close-ish to the 737 for commonality, though would still be a fair bit different for obvious reasons.

Boeing can't do anything more with the 737. The -9 is the be-all and end-all of the 737. 'MOM' is a larger narrowbody than the -9 and will have to be an all-new plane. The bill will be a minimum of $10billion and probably closer to $15billion.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
zckls04
Posts: 2785
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:55 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:34 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 102):
That's an airline choice. Don't confuse that with program intent which was quite clear.

Program intent is irrelevant when discussing commercial realities though. The question is, what mission profiles was the 767 used for, and what are they now being flown on?
Four Granavox Turbines!
 
S75752
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:13 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 135):

Boeing can't do anything more with the 737. The -9 is the be-all and end-all of the 737. 'MOM' is a larger narrowbody than the -9 and will have to be an all-new plane. The bill will be a minimum of $10billion and probably closer to $15billion.

They absolutely will not do it as a completely clean design, though. That would be suicide. It absolutely must be related to some other craft to be a success with airlines, and at least having a decent amount of commonality with the 737 would appeal to the most customers, though obviously there would be some glaring differences ranging from ground clearance to engines and who knows what else, which are simply necessary to even make such a craft.

Most 787 operators fly the 737 anyways, but most 737 operators don't fly the 787, so the 737 would make the most sense, they'd have to make it similar to that... Otherwise, they risk a repeat of the 757 alienating 737 operators by making it most like the widebody.

Only other option is to simply make it a LR or largest variant of the NSA, but that's still maybe 20-25 years off, given the 737 release pattern.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:35 am

Quoting Tristarsteve (Reply 11):

Pratt has developed a 3.5:1 gearbox perfect for this thrust range.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:52 am

Ok here is a new flight global article with too many pieces of info to summarize. Its longer than most pieces and definitely worth the read. I will summarize some of the most interesting points (to me) but there are others:

In regard to this MOM:

"Among the options Boeing has considered is shortening the smallest version of the 787 or stretching the longest version of the 737 Max."
....
""One of the solutions is to just make the 737 Max longer, bigger," Wojick says. "I'm not so sure that that's the one that's going to be best solution in this market space. A 767-type fuselage is another way to go."
....
"The 7J7 concept, however, featured a 4.17m-diameter fuselage. That was not quite wide enough to seat passengers six-abreast in a twin-aisle format. But it was enough space in a single-aisle layout to allow passengers to pass by the catering cart on the way to the lavatory."
....
"Steven Udvar-Hazy, has called for the new aircraft to do all the things that Tinseth has described, plus take off and land on a 2,130m (7,000ft) runway at an airport such as New York LaGuardia"
....
"the company is also experimenting with out-of-autoclave composite materials, including a resin-infused composite aft fairing in the 757 ecoDemonstrator."
....
"Fancher says. "Then we'll flow that into a 'middle of the market' airplane. Does that mean MOM is composite or a geared fan? We'll find out."
.....
"For Boeing, another decision looms on where to build a new aircraft."
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...eing-fill-a-757-sized-hole-412719/
----------------------------------

I have never heard them say the 767 fuse was an option. This should make a couple posters happy.

This out-of-autoclave material sounds interesting.

I think SUH's comments about short runways is a bit outrageous but I respect him so maybe I need to read further.

Lots of interest in the geared fan.

This sounds like the beginning of a new program to me. Exciting stuff.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 138):
Pratt has developed a 3.5:1 gearbox perfect for this thrust range.

The article posted above also has some good info on the possible engine. 3.5:1 as you mentioned! Here is a couple quotes:

"For P&W, the challenge is not only about summoning the resources required to design, test and certificate another new commercial aircraft engine. The thrust class needed for Boeing's new project also falls on a possible inflection point for the interior architecture of the fan-drive gear system."
....
"If you want to change the bypass ratio and go with a larger bypass ratio but a higher overall pressure ratio, then you're going to have to start looking at changes to gear ratio," says Graham Webb, chief engineer for P&W's commercial engines. "I think it's about 3.5:1, 3.4:1; you've got this inflection point where you've got to go from star to planetary."

tortugamon
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2547
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:56 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 137):
Most 787 operators fly the 737 anyways, but most 737 operators don't fly the 787, so the 737 would make the most sense, they'd have to make it similar to that... Otherwise, they risk a repeat of the 757 alienating 737 operators by making it most like the widebody.

Why not design the displays so that they can display either like a 737 or 787?
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 7060
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:04 am

I smell a 797.

Is it possible to slap on 767 engines on to a 757 frame?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 824
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:53 am

I wonder what they would come up if the goal was "Make me the best plane for $5B you can" rather than "Make me the best plane possible for $15B"

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 141):
I smell a 797.

Would allow the NSA to be the 808, luckiest of numbers  
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 141):
Is it possible to slap on 767 engines on to a 757 frame?

Why would you do that when new engines are 80% of the improvement in a new aircraft?
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:09 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 139):

Udvar-Hazy was about right on short field performance. The 787-3 was 3,500nm from 6,400 feet of runway at max payload. Still have the charts. That thing was a 767 with 757 field performance.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 136):

Program intent is irrelevant when discussing commercial realities though. The question is, what mission profiles was the 767 used for, and what are they now being flown on?

It's Boeings program. I'm pretty sure that when they sell it as a replacement for an already offered product then phase out said product in favor of the new product the intent is quite clear.

[Edited 2015-06-09 19:30:36]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3536
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:13 am

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 142):
Would allow the NSA to be the 808, luckiest of numbers


787, 797, 807, 817...  
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
User avatar
zckls04
Posts: 2785
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:55 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:15 am

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 143):
It's Boeings program. I'm pretty sure that when they sell it as a replacement for an already offered product then phase out said product in favor of the new product the intent is quite clear.

My contention was not about whether the intent of the program was clear, it was about whether it was relevant. I maintain that it is not. You can't make any commercial/strategic decisions based on what the intent of a program was. It really is of no consequence at all.
Four Granavox Turbines!
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 7060
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:20 am

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 142):
Why would you do that when new engines are 80% of the improvement in a new aircraft?

Just wanted to know if it was possible. Would've been a relatively cheap way to breathe new life into the 757 program.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
S75752
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:45 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 146):


Just wanted to know if it was possible. Would've been a relatively cheap way to breathe new life into the 757 program.

It wouldn't interest anyone, the economics would be terrible for a brand new craft in this day and age. The only option is to work on new tech or build it from current tech (737M, 787). Probably the latter.

Physically and theoretically speaking though...
I'm not sure about wing weight and ground clearance issues, but I think that'd be one of the main physical obstacles. Avionics aside.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2503
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 4:53 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 21):
I could imagine one airline, FI, would like a frame described above, I do not know who the other 29 are

DL,UA,AA possibly WN could make up a few

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 63):
I agree. The 757 replacement is the neo/max.

Nope, not even close
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing Reveals Challenging 757 Replacement Rqmt

Wed Jun 10, 2015 5:34 am

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 145):

My contention was not about whether the intent of the program was clear, it was about whether it was relevant. I maintain that it is not. You can't make any commercial/strategic decisions based on what the intent of a program was. It really is of no consequence at all.

So go build an aircraft and you can declare its purpose.

Boeing is clearly stating this project is a 757 replacement just as they stated the 787 was the 767 replacement. I'm sure some will declare it to be something it isn't. In fact it's already happening in this thread.

[Edited 2015-06-09 22:37:25]
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos