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bnatraveler
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AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:34 pm

The initial thread got too long and we're rolling to part 2.

Old thread is here: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 (by Miami Jun 8 2015 in Civil Aviation)
Announcement is at 3pET today, Tue 6-9-15.
General speculation based on a tweet released by American Airlines is that it has something to do with Australia.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:39 pm

www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-air...x-syd-announced-10-jun-2015-a.html

JonNYC, who usually knows every little insider info, has essentially confirmed it'll be LAX-SYD
 
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Miami
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:41 pm

Qantas replied to AA's post on Twitter:

Quote:
@AmericanAir That's not a kangaroo, THIS is a kangaroo! #greatmates

With this pic as well:


Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
sw733
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 1):
essentially confirmed it'll be LAX-SYD

Definitely makes the most sense. The question is now - in addition to, or in replacement to, the QF 744 flight?

I vote replacement, and the end of LAX-JFK-LAX on QF

[Edited 2015-06-09 07:43:14]
 
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thekorean
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:47 pm

Well that was as exciting a news as watching paint dry.
 
Flighty
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:54 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 4):

There could be a lot more to it than that. Or maybe not.
 
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Miami
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:57 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 4):

  

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
There could be a lot more to it than that.

I think we all hope that.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:58 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 3):

I vote replacement, and the end of LAX-JFK-LAX on QF

This makes the most sense. The only questions left are 1) equipment - 788, 77E, or 77W, and 2) where would that 744 go.
 
jacobin777
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 4):
Well that was as exciting a news as watching paint dry.

This is potentially big news for loyal AA fliers.   
"Up the Irons!"
 
chrisp390
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 7):

I would assume the large premium demand on that route calls for 77W due to the first class cabin. My next thought however is would they have enough frames for this plus potential DFW-NRT switching over to the 77W plus DFW-AUH being launched with 77W?
 
sw733
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:14 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 7):
2) where would that 744 go.

Perhaps they do try SFO again, or just retire the frame.
 
ben175
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:17 pm

I know I'm dreaming.... but what about LAX-AKL-PER with a 787?

Would allow QF to drop the current seasonal PER-AKL service and go year-round through a codeshare, and also make AKL-LAX viable. Very far fetched, but I wouldn't say it's entirely impossible.

[Edited 2015-06-09 08:18:34]
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 9):

I would assume the large premium demand on that route calls for 77W due to the first class cabin. My next thought however is would they have enough frames for this plus potential DFW-NRT switching over to the 77W plus DFW-AUH being launched with 77W?

What does DFW-AUH really achieve ? DFW-MiddleEast is quite over capacity, and they want more of that ?

Regarding 77W availability, I guess they can always temporarily yank it from GRU for the new routes, and only place them back to GRU once more frames arrive.
 
chrisp390
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:25 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 12):

DFW-AUH seems more of a 788 route to me but for some reason apparently according to the reporting article they were planning to use a 77W on it. Can't imagine how they could fill all those seats considering Ethiads dismal record at DFW
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 13):

DFW-AUH seems more of a 788 route to me but for some reason apparently according to the reporting article they were planning to use a 77W on it. Can't imagine how they could fill all those seats considering Ethiads dismal record at DFW

The flight is 8071sm. Definitely way at the edge of 788 range/payload performance. That's a route that requires 789 or 77W.

It's also a DINKY local O&D market - currently not a single US based airline flies nonstop to AUH or DOH.
 
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Miami
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 9):
DFW-AUH being launched with 77W?

DFW is over capacity. Its too much. Just look at the loads.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
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Miami
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:29 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
That's a route that requires 789 or 77W.

If anything, Etihad can just send the 789.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
777ord
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:34 pm

perhaps MIA-TLV... second largest Jewish Population in the US, only beaten by the NYC region. Untapped resource there.

My dream list:

LAX-Australia
MIA-TLV
any expansion to Asia and Europe!  
 
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kann123air
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:35 pm

Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but where can I find a live stream to the announcement?
Going for great
 
austwin
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:40 pm

Quoting kann123air (Reply 18):
Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but where can I find a live stream to the announcement?
http://hub.aa.com/en/nr/press-confer...on=DirectURL&title=pressconference
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:51 pm

You mean it is not the end of LAX-RDM service?? LOL.
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
afcjets
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:14 pm

Unless you are travelling on a free upgrade I cannot imagine anyone purchasing AA, DL, or UA in Economy or E+ over QF. The difference in even in the regular economy section is huge where instead of 10 across on a 777, QF even offers footrests. And the meal service in Premium Economy on QF more resembles J class on AA than Y.
 
panamair
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 21):
The difference in even in the regular economy section is huge where instead of 10 across on a 777

Both Delta and United still have 9-across seating in regular economy on their 777s.
 
sw733
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting ben175 (Reply 11):
I know I'm dreaming.... but what about LAX-AKL-PER with a 787?

What kind of aircraft utilization would that take? Considering minimal layovers in AKL and PER, my guess it a roundtrip would use up that aircraft for about 50 hours.
 
afcjets
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:43 pm

Quoting panamair (Reply 22):
Both Delta and United still have 9-across seating in regular economy on their 777s.

I think the key word is still. AA was the first to remove the center console on the DC10 and eventually all airlines did on both the DC10 and L10.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:49 pm

Curious as to why its being made from Miami. If it is Australia, I would bet pretty much anything I own that it wont be launched from Miami.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
afcjets
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:53 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
Curious as to why its being made from Miami. If it is Australia, I would bet pretty much anything I own that it wont be launched from Miami.

Even JFK is onestop via LAX. Perhaps it will be MIA-HNL-SYD and QF will turn it over to AA.
 
Sooner787
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:54 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
Curious as to why its being made from Miami. If it is Australia, I would bet pretty much anything I own that it wont be launched from Miami.

the big IATA meeting in is MIA this week
 
tonytifao
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:07 pm

New service to Australia!
 
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qf789
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:12 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 3):
I vote replacement, and the end of LAX-JFK-LAX on QF
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 7):
This makes the most sense. The only questions left are 1) equipment - 788, 77E, or 77W, and 2) where would that 744 go.

If QF ended LAX-JFK-LAX the 744 would sit on the ground. Not sure what aircraft AA would use however in the first thread some were proposing AA would operate a 77W and replace the QF 744. I cant see QF dropping a service. I do remember reading recently in a QF investors update, I think, that QF said one of their biggest growth markets is the US. Also going from a 744 to a 77W would be reducing capacity (364 vs 310)

Quoting ben175 (Reply 11):
I know I'm dreaming

Yes

Quoting ben175 (Reply 11):
but what about LAX-AKL-PER with a 787?

No

Quoting ben175 (Reply 11):
Would allow QF to drop the current seasonal PER-AKL service and go year-round through a codeshare, and also make AKL-LAX viable

This wouldn't work. PER-AKL is seasonal for a reason. AA would need to rely on a large amount of O&D to make any money on the route during winter, just look at NZ 5 weekly at the moment and 10 times a week during summer.

Quoting sw733 (Reply 23):
What kind of aircraft utilization would that take? Considering minimal layovers in AKL and PER, my guess it a roundtrip would use up that aircraft for about 50 hours.

I worked it out to be about 45 hours.
LAX-AKL 13hrs
2 hrs layover
AKL-PER 7hrs30mins
2 hrs layover
PER-AKL 6hrs20mins
2hrs layover
AKL-LAX 12hrs15mins

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
Curious as to why its being made from Miami

The IATA conference is on in Miami
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MAH4546
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):

Curious as to why its being made from Miami. If it is Australia, I would bet pretty much anything I own that it wont be launched from Miami.

Because all the airline CEOs are in Miami for IATA.

A second announcement (or "re-announcement") will be made at 1p PDT in Los Angeles. Scott Kirby is at LAX.
a.
 
sw733
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 29):

If QF ended LAX-JFK-LAX the 744 would sit on the ground.

All of their other aircraft already sit on the ground all day at LAX. And the A380 at DFW sits all day too.
 
sw733
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:16 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 29):
I worked it out to be about 45 hours.
LAX-AKL 13hrs
2 hrs layover
AKL-PER 7hrs30mins
2 hrs layover
PER-AKL 6hrs20mins
2hrs layover
AKL-LAX 12hrs15mins

Thanks for doing the math, mine was largely a guess. Sounds about right. I suppose not too crazy considering their 77W sits in HKG for almost a full day...but I imagine still not ideal, and AKL/PER probably wouldn't be quite as productive (financially) as HKG.
 
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Miami
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:17 pm

Although it's well known that it's going to be Australia. Maybe there will be more too it. But for whatever its worth, I have been informed that a South African delegation was in MIA this past week.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
Sooner787
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 31):
And the A380 at DFW sits all day too.

not exactly, it gets a 3-4 hour nap after landing around 1-2p, then it's pulled back
up to the gate around 7pm to prepare for the evening return flt around 10p.
 
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IslandRob
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:21 pm

A grand, unifying theory: perhaps QF and AA have agreed to shift a good chunk of the SYD-LAX traffic to AA, allowing QF eventually to begin phasing out their A380s in favor of large twins, such as the 779 or A351, as has been recently rumored. Wouldn't this result in QF deriving just as much revenue with less "effort"? They struck a similar arrangement with EK to handle European traffic, and many here claim it was a sound decision on QF's part. Regards. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:29 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 29):
I do remember reading recently in a QF investors update, I think, that QF said one of their biggest growth markets is the US. Also going from a 744 to a 77W would be reducing capacity (364 vs 310)

The USD is also way too strong relative to the AUD, which is natural resource driven. Other than the panic spike during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the last time the AUD was this weak relative to the USD was back in late 2006.

The (overly) strong USD is already wreaking havoc on the long-haul networks of US carriers. The last thing they need is even more short-term capacity woes.

Long term, I agree it's a market that will continue to grow. Short term, better swap QF 744 for AA 777.
 
richierich
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 3):
I vote replacement, and the end of LAX-JFK-LAX on QF

Agreed. And it kind of makes sense too.

Quoting qf789 (Reply 29):
If QF ended LAX-JFK-LAX the 744 would sit on the ground.
Quoting sw733 (Reply 31):
All of their other aircraft already sit on the ground all day at LAX. And the A380 at DFW sits all day too.

Sit on the ground versus fly transcontinental USA on a route with no local rights. It can't be cheap keeping an orphaned aircraft in the USA for the transcon run. Besides not serving one of the largest cities in North America with their own metal, the JFK route cannot have made too much money for QF, especially when a OneWorld partner flies the route frequently.
None shall pass!!!!
 
bobnwa
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:51 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 4):
Well that was as exciting a news as watching paint dry

Be still my beating heart!!!
 
Motorhussy
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 36):
The (overly) strong USD is already wreaking havoc on the long-haul networks of US carriers. The last thing they need is even more short-term capacity woes.

I'm not getting your logic; the strong US$ makes for a better fiscal environment for the flying American public - which is the largest flying public in the world.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 36):
The USD is also way too strong relative to the AUD, which is natural resource driven. Other than the panic spike during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the last time the AUD was this weak relative to the USD was back in late 2006.

This is only in recent history - both that the AU$ has been so strong and weakened in recent years relative due to poor mineral and ore prices on the global market. The AU$ is currently sitting above the value it achieved (for the first time) back in late 2006.

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 35):
llowing QF eventually to begin phasing out their A380s in favor of large twins, such as the 779 or A351

Well this will not be happening, they make too much money on the North American and LHR services despite the misinformation that some try to spread.

If QF give up SYD-LAX-JFK, what about AA starting a route like JFK-NAN-SYD? Partner FJ can feed traffic via their NAN hub from CHC, WLG, AKL, BNE and MEL, plus the Pacific nations traffic.
come visit the south pacific
 
B747forever
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:10 pm

With the hub they have at LAX and both UA and DL fly LAX-SYD, AA have to enter that market. I am surprised it has taken them, so long to fly the route.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
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cageyjames
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:12 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 40):
With the hub they have at LAX and both UA and DL fly LAX-SYD, AA have to enter that market. I am surprised it has taken them, so long to fly the route.

I think having a JV partner allowed them to focus aircraft on other routes where they didn't have a JV. But as they've grown, the need to have at least one if not more AA metal flights to SYD makes sense.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:13 pm

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 39):
I'm not getting your logic; the strong US$ makes for a better fiscal environment for the flying American public - which is the largest flying public in the world.

I think both US-AU and US-BR are rather similar in the sense that they're more of a northbound market, so strong USD will disproportionately hurt its traffic.

The US flying public is the largest in the world (true), but they're also very domestic market oriented. Only ~32% of AA's ASMs are for international (and even lower number for % seats)

If the US carriers can attain closer to 50/50 balance between domestic and foreign point of sale, it would hedge most of the currency woes. But alas, that's not the case for most route pairings.
 
steex
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 37):
It can't be cheap keeping an orphaned aircraft in the USA for the transcon run.

There is no orphaned aircraft - the bird is able to fly LAX-JFK-LAX in between its morning arrival at LAX from Australia and subsequent late evening departure to Australia from LAX. QF doesn't keep a separate aircraft at LAX just to operate a single daily JFK turn.

The 744 routing:

BNE 10:25 LAX 06:25 LAX 08:55 JFK 17:15
JFK 18:45 LAX 21:40 LAX 13:45 BNE 06:40+2
 
vv701
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting sw733 (Reply 32):
I suppose not too crazy considering their 77W sits in HKG for almost a full day...but I imagine still not ideal

I would have thought it pretty good.

If we allow for a 2 hrs 55 mins layover at LAX the same aircraft could operate the same rotation continuously at intervals of two days. In that 48 hrs period it would have spent 8 hrs 55 mins on the ground, 39 hrs 05 mins in the air.

Of course this all assumes that layovers do not have to be extended so that the departure and arrival timings better meet passenger needs. Further the aircraft would need maintenance. But a theoretical starting utilisation of 19 hrs 32.5 mins per day (81 per cent utilisation) would likely compare very favourably with that achieved on most other routings.

Very long flights even with long layovers can be, at first glance, very deceptive when looking at aircraft utilisation.
 
PDX88
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:36 pm

Could AA be pursuing ATI with QF? AA needs to operate at least a single flight to Oceania on their own metal to qualify if I'm not mistaken.
 
dc10lover
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:43 pm

Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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kann123air
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:49 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 43):
QF doesn't keep a separate aircraft at LAX just to operate a single daily JFK turn.

Before the introduction of the 744 on LAX-JFK-LAX, was the A332 on the route an 'orphaned' one? Or did it fly back to Australia every night?
Going for great
 
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IslandRob
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:50 pm

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 46):
http://twitter.com/AmericanAir

Press conference with Qantas. Interesting. Guess we'll know what's up in about 10 minutes! -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
910A
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RE: AA To Make Important Announcement On 6-9-15 - Pt 2

Tue Jun 09, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting panamair (Reply 22):
Both Delta and United still have 9-across seating in regular economy on their 777s.

Then we have United's business class mess with eight across..

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