Quoting The777Man (Reply 99): I think CBR is okay to land at; problem may be to take off with a full load to DXB.

A 3200m runway should be plenty.

Quoting The777Man (Reply 99): I do think they could perhaps cut one of the 380 flights

I don't see them ever dropping these routes. They do well for trans Tasman, they keep EY out of the Australia-NZ market (EK has used all 28 weekly rights for UAE airlines to NZ via Australia) and they fit the schedule nicely (although they can easily rejig that now with their huge fleet). They also bring a lot of freight to NZ (probably the reason why NZ doesn't require a Emirates Cargo flight).

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 75): Then this brings me to a question. Since the A350 is often talked as 777W competitor it should have similar or better range, PIP or not. But EK has discarded them and is ordering now 77L ! .So has the 359 (or the 35J) a range problem? Otherwise I would think that it would beat a 77L (or W that is ) hands down in economics. Or maybe not, aquisition costs can turn that upside down. Is it now Boeing turn to give away their products for free?

There's no range problem, it's just that the 777 is available now, and the 777X in the future will be better for EK, given their existing 777 fleet, and because they're bigger. EK like big aeroplanes. The A350 is not available at present in huge numbers. That said, it has less range than the 77L, but that's no accident, the 77L (and the 778) are specifically designed as ULH aircraft, the A350 could do ULH at a stretch, but it's intended for flights of 15hrs or less. An A350-900R has been proposed but not launched, it would fly further than the 77L, and maybe the 778.

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 30): It's the 777-200A and 777-200ER that are definitely dead.

And the 777-300. Must be ten years or so since the last one was built.

Quoting na (Reply 102): Quoting LTU932 (Reply 30): It's the 777-200A and 777-200ER that are definitely dead. And the 777-300. Must be ten years or so since the last one was built.

For clarity, that the 772, 77E and 773 respectively.

Maybe the Boeing people were on to something when they said they were "confident" they would be able to bridge the gap in the 777-777X transition.

Perhaps this deal is one of a few to drop in the coming weeks....we'll see. If so, that will be a surprise to a lot of people who said "no way they can keep the production rate up or bridge the gap."

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 97): I also recall that the 77L is more efficient than the 77E on sectors longer than 6 hours.

It's actually around 2-3 hours.

A nonstop Canberra - Dubai service would be amazing for me as I live about 80 minutes from Canberra airport but I simply cannot see Emirates being the first 'international' service from our national capital (excusing of course Air Pacific's failed Fijian services a few years ago). I simply can't imagine enough of a market to interest Emirates, though of course any such service would have a Qantas codeshare. I always imagined something like a Singapore Airlines A330 or Cathay Pacific A330 service a few times a week being the 'first' as they would allow fantastic connections throughout Asia as well as Europe, whereas Emirates could 'only' offer Europe and points in the immediate vicinity of Dubai in comparison. The market from Canberra would be relatively high-yield I suspect, but obviously the market for 'Asia-Europe' would be much bigger than 'Europe-ME-Africa' in my opinion from Canberra to attract the premium of nonstop international flights from Canberra versus connections in Sydney/Melbourne.

Just imagine a Dubai-Canberra-Hobart service...

As another real left-of-centre suggestion, as 'Oceania' is specified as one of the potential growth areas for these 777-200LRs: Port Moresby! The capital of PNG... It has relatively few international connections yet the country is resource rich with arguably great potential. Maybe something like Dubai-Port Moresby-??? in the South Pacific like Fiji or Wellington ... Just a thought.

Cheers,
Bunumuring.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 95): Hugh, with the same payload how far could a B77L get out of WLG's 6300ft with the extra 13t of fuel, DRW? SIN? JKT?

About 10-1/2 hrs. Should be good enough for SIN and HNL. If the runway is extended to 7500ft TOW becomes ~ 318t and LAX is possible. But so is LAX with the 789 with a 231t TOW with a 32t payload.

Boeing just recorded a 10-frame 777 order for an Unidentified Customer, so maybe an announcement by Emirates at Paris?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 108): Boeing just recorded a 10-frame 777 order for an Unidentified Customer, so maybe an announcement by Emirates at Paris?

That could very well be the case.  

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 100): A 3200m runway should be plenty.

Thanks for the info!

That should be no problem then.

We'll see what happens.

The777Man

Quoting Stitch (Reply 108): Boeing just recorded a 10-frame 777 order for an Unidentified Customer, so maybe an announcement by Emirates at Paris?

Interesting. Just yesterday STC said that there will not be any orders for EK in Paris but that is suspicious.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 106): one of the potential growth areas for these 777-200LRs: Port Moresby!

POM was mentioned and discussed upthread but I think at 6,613nm that the 77L would not be needed for that route. I could be wrong but I think they are really pushing the range envelop with this order otherwise I think they would be interested in 77Ws. I could be wrong of course.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 111): POM was mentioned and discussed upthread but I think at 6,613nm that the 77L would not be needed for that route. I could be wrong but I think they are really pushing the range envelop with this order otherwise I think they would be interested in 77Ws. I could be wrong of course.

  

POM seems like a good market to start with older product, such as the few remaining A340-300s or 777-200ERs, and then expand to a 777-300ER if it's successful.

I see this as about the Americas and maybe AKL.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 108): Boeing just recorded a 10-frame 777 order for an Unidentified Customer, so maybe an announcement by Emirates at Paris?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 111): Interesting. Just yesterday STC said that there will not be any orders for EK in Paris but that is suspicious.

It is now starting to look like it could be a single-customer swap for 15 787s for 10 777Xs so it can't be EK. Most likely Etihad.

So maybe a joint EK 787-10 + 777-200LR order at the Dubai Air Show.   

[Edited 2015-06-11 16:22:29]

Quoting Stitch (Reply 114): So maybe a joint EK 787-10

I doubt it. Tim Clark said "“If anything, the 787-10 is not coming up with the thrust requirements that we need."


I wish they would but I don't expect it.

Quoting Miami (Reply 115): I doubt it. Tim Clark said "“If anything, the 787-10 is not coming up with the thrust requirements that we need."

He's said that he wants more thrust for summer ops out of DXB, but then he is also quoting thrust figures some 6000 pounds less than the 787-10 will be certified for. He's also said that while the A350-900 has more than sufficient thrust, it is is heavier than he wants for regional missions and therefore will burn more fuel than the 787-10 on those missions.

So personally I think the 787-10 is still very much on the table. Anyway, this is a discussion about the 777-200LR and Emirates, so we can leave the 787-10 and Emirates discussion at 787-10 Is Ahead Of Schedule (by tortugamon Jun 5 2015 in Civil Aviation).  

Quoting Stitch (Reply 116): So personally I think the 787-10 is still very much on the table. Anyway

I'd hope so as IMO 787 > A350  

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 107): Quoting gemuser (Reply 95): Hugh, with the same payload how far could a B77L get out of WLG's 6300ft with the extra 13t of fuel, DRW? SIN? JKT? About 10-1/2 hrs. Should be good enough for SIN and HNL. If the runway is extended to 7500ft TOW becomes ~ 318t and LAX is possible.

So how about using the B77L for DXB-SIN-WLG? It is to Oceania and it takes advantage of the B77Ls performance so it couldn't be done with a B77W.

Gemuser

Quoting gemuser (Reply 118): So how about using the B77L for DXB-SIN-WLG?

Why not. Does EK have any interlining arrangements at SIN for Asia and India? Perhaps a dedicated 77L for SIN-WLG-SIN connecting to EK's 4x daily service to DXB or their 3X daily KUL-DXB service.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 15): The only 4 cities I can envision EK doing that *needs* a 77L would be EZE, MEX, AKL, and LIM (in that order)

LIM is insanely far from DXB!

Right now even EZE is a tag-on from GIG, which speaks to the quantity and quality of traffic EK can capture.

No matter how much we want to tout the growth in business ties between Asia and Latin America, it's hard to fill planes without some "regular people" on VFR and tourism runs. From Latin America, Asia is just a tiny market compared with Europe and North America. Hstorical, cultural, and migration ties are barely there.

Moreover, for the Pacific Rim (HKG, PVG, ICN, NRT) it is quicker to cross the Pacific to reach Mexico, Central America, and even the Andean countries.

Perhaps EK sees MEX as a reasonably high priority despite operational challenges. In addition PTY (with CM connections to Central America and the Andean countries) could be an interesting candidate.

But for now, EK is not even splitting the GIG-EZE flight into two nonstops from DXB. Much easier to launch MCO, I suppose.

Don't they still have 77Ws still waiting to be delivered? I don't understand what it is that they have in mind. They were talking about dumping their 777s in favor of the 777Xs, now they are looking at the 772LR...do they still want the 77Ws that they still have on order? What would be the point of taking delivery of those if they plan on dumping the 777s of the current generation? I'm confused. Can someone please clarify.

Ben Soriano

Quoting Stitch (Reply 114): So maybe a joint EK 787-10 + 777-200LR order at the Dubai Air Show.

Clark said the other day that he doesn't expect the 787/A350 order to happen until late this year at the earliest. It also seems a bit early for a 777-200LR order that he's "thinking" about.

Dubai: entirely possible. Paris: unlikely.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 121): Don't they still have 77Ws still waiting to be delivered?

Yes 48.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 121): They were talking about dumping their 777s in favor of the 777Xs

I have not heard that. They said that they will eventually replace all of their 777s (including those on order) with 777X's and maybe that is where the confusion lies.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 120): LIM is insanely far from DXB!

Yes it is but it appears doable and that is a big city to pull ~250 people from the 7th largest urban area in the Americas and a top 30 in the world. I am more skeptical about SCL to be honest.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 120): But for now, EK is not even splitting the GIG-EZE flight into two nonstops from DXB.

I think this is true but isn't it an A380? Peeling off the EZE traffic on a 77L would be the next move.

Thanks for offering PTY which I personally agree with but haven't gotten much feedback on - but specifically this rumor is 10-15 77Ls to Oceania and South America (not Mexico) - any other ideas?

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 123): Yes it is but it appears doable and that is a big city to pull ~250 people from the 7th largest urban area in the Americas and a top 30 in the world. I am more skeptical about SCL to be honest.

It doesn't matter how big it is, if it is (1) a relatively small market from Asia/Africa/ME, (2) it is really far away, and (3) you can reach LIM faster from the Far East crossing the Pacific!

I don't know about LIM vs SCL, but I believe Chile is a larger economy than is Peru (?)

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 123): I think this is true but isn't it an A380? Peeling off the EZE traffic on a 77L would be the next move.

No, DXB-GIG-EZE is a 77L right now.

Actually 77W in Northern winter, 77L in Northern summer.

[Edited 2015-06-11 22:19:59]

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 124): It doesn't matter how big it is, if it is (1) a relatively small market from Asia/Africa/ME, (2) it is really far away, and (3) you can reach LIM faster from the Far East crossing the Pacific!

If you want to fly to India in less then 30 hours it currently takes two stops and $2,900 each way. BOM is hard to do for under $3,200 with one stop. I am not looking at far east destinations - Middle East and South Asia should be enough to cover ~250 seats daily.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 124): No, DXB-GIG-EZE is a 77L right now.

Surprising.

Honestly its their last continent. With all of the traffic from every other continent I have to imagine they can string together more than two destinations. This order specifically says South America. I honestly can't think of any routes better in the region then EZE, LIM, and SCl and they can be done by a 77L.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 125): Middle East and South Asia should be enough to cover ~250 seats daily.

If this were actually true, and let's include Eastern and Southern Africa along for the ride, I'm sure Emirates would have figured it out. Maybe someday.

Yes, there are a small number of business people, diplomats, and even tourists who travel these sorts of routes, but even those folks might just take a break in Europe on the way!

(I actually know a wealthy family in Delhi that went to Peru for a holiday. They took breaks in their London flat both ways! After all, they go to London and yes Dubai many times a year.)

I simply doubt LIM would command enough of a yield premium for EK to operate nonstop. This is >9000 miles even assuming a clear GC path and not taking into account winds.

Again, EZE is a very large metropolitan area, and it's tagged on still!

I guess even EK has its limits, as far as nonstop ambitions go.

DXB-PTY-LIM might be good enough. Dito for BOG. If not Emirates for the second leg, then COPA.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 126): I'm sure Emirates would have figured it out.

They have to start sometime.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 126): Again, EZE is a very large metropolitan area, and it's tagged on still!

LIM isn't too much different. Peru has some solid tourist draw too.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 126): DXB-PTY-LIM might be good enough. Dito for BOG. If not Emirates for the second leg, then COPA.

Great, you have said every route sucks. The rumor if you believe it is 10-15 77Ls to Oceania or South America. The three routes you approve of does not rationalize the rumor which is what I am trying to do.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 127): Great, you have said every route sucks. The rumor if you believe it is 10-15 77Ls to Oceania or South America. The three routes you approve of does not rationalize the rumor which is what I am trying to do.

It's not up to you or me to decide, it's up to Emirates. But, when they don't even bother making EZE nonstop while starting other routes like MCO and BLQ, doubling BOS, etc., that should tell us something.

What looks crazy now may be perfectly viable in five years time. However the air distance and flight duration from DXB to LIM are what they are.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 128): It's not up to you or me to decide, it's up to Emirates. But, when they don't even bother making EZE nonstop while starting other routes like MCO and BLQ, doubling BOS, etc., that should tell us something.

1- There are a lot of traffic between GIG and EZE. Is not that uncommon that an airlines chooses to make GIG-EZE segments. LH used to make FRA-GIG-EZE. Even AR made GIG-EZE-MAD flights on their 747s.

2-Is a well know fact that Argentina is facing heavy economy problems so EK might think that is safer to make DUB-GIG-EZE making a small profit on the GIG-EZE segments instead to send two planes and risking to make a loss on both segments.

Gus
SKBO

Quoting The777Man (Reply 2): Perhaps new service to WLG or CHC and nonstop to AKL ?

  

The 77L is IMHO the perfect aircraft for DXB-AKL non-stop if EK wanted to launch the route. It is the right size and has the legs.

And... with some speculating about QF re-starting SYD-AKL-LAX flights with a 789 if the order gets firmed (I don't think QF will re-start AKL-LAX, but others do) then just imagine with the QF / EK partnership if EK operates AKL-LAX as an extension of a new DXB-AKL flight.

Then we could see DXB-AKL-LAX-DXB - round the world - on EK metal and that would also allow EK to get into North America from Oceania because the chances of EK being allowed to fly between Australia and North America are very slim, and basically zero whilst they are in partnership with QF.

[Edited 2015-06-12 22:53:21]

[Edited 2015-06-12 22:56:32]

In regards to the Oceania rumours.. I can see the press releases now..

"Emirates unveils a new Capital Connect service, with Direct service into Australia's capital Canberra, with a seamless connection onto New Zealand's national capital, Wellington. The 77L operating this service will be a great option for these cities, with a capacity of 8 first class suites /42 business class /216 economy all equipped with our award winning inflight entertaiment ICE." Initially starting at 5 x week, these flights will go daily from June 2016

Both CBR and WLG airports/cities would throw money EK's way to make it happen
The capacity of the aircraft is the smallest in the EK flight, suited to places like CBR and WLG. (its like a longer range 330!) and Ek will benefit from all the very loyal government CBR travellers, and there will be sufficient leisure yield in the premium classes.

It also gives SW SYD Passengers an extra evening direct option. EK would make the CBR flights cheaper to increase yield on the SYD 380 services. (not to mention the CBR pax thaty may of been on this service would now be on the direct option, opening up more seats for SYD)

I would envisage timing similar to the SYD flights, with a longer stop in CBR for the morning to pickup early MEL/ADL arrivals onwards to WLG

DXB-CBR/CBR-WLG/WLG-CBR/CBR-DXB
1045/0715 0945-1415 1600-1730 2030-0515

Realistically only 4/20/120 pax from CBR to put in, 4/20/100 from WLG with room to add in O & D pax and some freight, this could be a real winner!

Other options
A late arrival into CBR around 2215, turning straight round to depart at 2345

I had thought of a DXB-SIN-CBR-WLG rotation, but I think that even though that would serve multiple purposes, the higher-yielding pax ex CBR would rather transit SYD/MEL if another stop was involved. A direct DXB would be the only way to really get that kind of service off the ground.

The smaller capacity of the 77L could also encourage one of the MEL flights to be de-linked
I don't mind the idea of some sort of service up to DRW or CNS; that could be interesting!

Cheers

[Edited 2015-06-14 04:57:30]

Quoting Stitch (Reply 105): It's actually around 2-3 hours.

Ah ok, good to know. Guess the capital cost would be the only disadvantage over using an old 772.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 118): So how about using the B77L for DXB-SIN-WLG? It is to Oceania and it takes advantage of the B77Ls performance so it couldn't be done with a B77W.

They'd be better off using it for DXB-SIN-AKL tbh.

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 131):

Except EK have currently used all their 5th freedom rights between NZ and Australia so they'd need to have a new agreement if they were to consider such a thing. And even then, they'd probably do something else which has more potential.

Looks like QR is getting on-board the 777-8x program with an order for 10 frames:

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2015-06-...for-10-777-8Xs-Four-777-Freighters

More evidence that the shorter ULH frame still draws market interest?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 133): More evidence that the shorter ULH frame still draws market interest?

The 777-8X is really much closer to the -300ER than to the 77L or -200ER. With some "cabin optimization" and the fact that it will be wider internally (making 10-abreast okay) it's quite defferent from former UL-planes how where often much smaller, e.g. the 777L is 10 m shorter as the 777W while it's less than 7m for the 8x vs. the 9x. It's fitness-ration is nearly optimal (11,2), -9x is 12,4 and A350-1000 is also 12,4 (one of the reasons i don't think a A350-1100 would be an optimal idea, the ratio would be 13,x like the A340-600).

It still will be mainly a plane for the ME3. But with well over 50 orders it seems to be no failure and making sense instead of only making the 777X a "one-plane" show.

[Edited 2015-06-15 04:36:57]