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qf789
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Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:24 pm

Quote: Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a demand for 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) today, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.6 trillion.



New Airplane Deliveries: 2015-2034




Airplane type

Seats

Total deliveries

Dollar value


Regional jets

90 and below

2,490

$100 billion


Single-aisle

90 – 230

26,730

$2,770 billion


Small widebody

200 – 300

4,770

$1,250 billion


Medium widebody

300 – 400

3,520

$1,220 billion


Large widebody

400 and above

540

$230 billion


Total

---------

38,050

$5.6 trillion




The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.



New Airplane Deliveries: 2015-2034




Region

Airplane deliveries


Asia

14,330


North America

7,890


Europe

7,310


Middle East

3,180


Latin America

3,020


Africa

1,170


C.I.S.

1,150


Total

38,050


Media release

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2015-06-...w-Airplanes-Valued-at-5-6-Trillion

For more detailed information refer to following link

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/
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747400sp
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:32 pm

Well Boeing, the ball is in your court, what are you going to do about it
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 1):

This is the CMO that is updated annually. Airbus has their equivalent which they have a higher VLA outlook.
 
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ams747757
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:57 pm

Small widebody and narrowbody... cough cough Boeing what are you going to do?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:11 pm

Quoting ams747757 (Reply 3):
Small widebody and narrowbody... cough cough Boeing what are you going to do?

787-8 and 737MAX for the near-term with 787-8 and NSA for the long-term I imagine.
 
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Aquila3
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:20 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 2):
Airbus has their equivalent which they have a higher VLA outlook.

It seems to me that they count no VLA at all. I mean that all those above 400 colud be just 777X (and maybe some 35J).
Not that I mean that they must be wrong. Time will tell.
chi vola vale chi vale vola chi non vola è un vile
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:32 pm

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 5):
It seems to me that (Boeing) count no VLA at all. I mean that all those above 400 colud be just 777X (and maybe some 35J).

Officially, Boeing considers the 747-8 as their entry in the "large" widebody category and the 777 family as "medium".

Quote:
As airlines continue to diversify their fleets, we see a need for 4,770 airplanes in the small category (i.e., 787-8, 787-9), 3,520 in the medium category (i.e., 787-10, 777, 777X), and 540 in large category (i.e., 747-8i).

That being said, with the 747-8 program looking likely to close down by the end of 2020, much less 2035, I would not be surprised if the bulk of those 540 "large widebody" planes Boeing predicts to be sold will be 777-9X, with the remainder A380s (in current or neo form).
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:43 pm

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 5):

Well Boeing isn't saying that they'll get market share in the VLA segment. They consider the 777X to be a large body. So if Boeing terminates the 747, that implies Airbus stands to gain at most 400 VLA orders over the next 20 years (at a rate of 20 A380s per year). Airbus in their GMO last year assumes that the VLA market is 1501 but it looked like to me they sort of lump the A350 in that category as well assuming an A350-1000 carries 400+. Airbus in their presentation considered both the 777X/747 from what I can tell to be a large body rather than a VLA. Assuming that's true, does that mean Airbus hopes to deliver at most 75 A380s a year? Seems unlikely to me given the delivery track record as of late.
 
David_itl
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 7):
. Airbus in their presentation considered both the 777X/747 from what I can tell to be a large body rather than a VLA.

Believe their take on VLA is anything over 400 seats, Remember EK have a host of 77W that carry over 400 passengers now. Are we really going to be believe that Boeing's "400 seat and above" contains 540 aircraft when it include 120 A380s and potentially 150 77Xs for EK..... is the rest of the world only going to have 270 aircraft in the category over the next 20 years? What, to you, seems more realistic?
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting david_itl (Reply 8):

Look at Airbus' GMO presentation over at their website on the 2014-2033. So it's not me making the categorization.
 
David_itl
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:43 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 9):
Look at Airbus' GMO presentation over at their website on the 2014-2033

I did. But then I checked out the Airbus commercial update for 22 January 2015, page 43:

Dominating the current & future VLA market
In-service 400+ seat fleet
375 aircraft

Source ASCEND 01/15
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:29 pm

Quoting david_itl (Reply 8):
Are we really going to be believe that Boeing's "400 seat and above" contains 540 aircraft when it include 120 A380s and potentially 150 77Xs for EK..... is the rest of the world only going to have 270 aircraft in the category over the next 20 years?

It could be, since once can expect the bulk of 777-9 deliveries will be in three or four classes and therefore less than 400 seats. Emirates's two-class 777-9 are expected to seat 440, so if they add a Premium Economy product in the next 20 years, that could drop the seat count below 400.
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:43 pm

Quoting david_itl (Reply 10):
That's what Airbus says is a VLA. However that's not what I'm referring to. The GMO presentation puts both the 747 and 777 in the less than 400 seat range. By contrast, the upper seating tier of the A350 family is above 400 seats. Kind of odd when the A350-1000 is supposedly between the 787-10 and the 777-8.
 
2175301
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:06 am

How much of Boeings VLA projection is Freighters? They used to break out passenger aircraft vs freighters.
 
IMissPiedmont
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:19 am

I think there is a whole bunch of wishful thinking in this estimate, at best they doubled the real number but more likely the real number will be less than 10,000.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting IMissPiedmont (Reply 14):

Not necessarily. This is between the year 2015 to 2034, a 20 year period. That means there are x amount of certain types of planes that needs to be bought or replaced which Boeing isn't estimating that is exclusive to them. So hypothetically if the CMO says there are 26,000 narrow bodies that will be purchased, it stands to reason that Boeing could capture at most 40% of that figure, Airbus 40%, and other OEM's like Ilyushin, Bombardier, Mitsubishi, COMAC, etc gets the remainder. It certainly doesn't mean that Boeing will get 100% of the 26,000 estimate. At current with adjusted production rate, Boeing has a maximum output of 14,500 narrow bodies over a 20 year period. Airbus is about the same. Now that's assuming they're both still producing A320's and 737's between now and then with no NSA's for either company.
 
justloveplanes
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RE: Boeing 20 Year Forecast 38050 New Airplanes

Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:59 pm

Randy Tinseth's blog seems to imply the 540 is 748 and 380, or rather that the 777x is a medium wide body and 787 is a small wide body. That's how his statements and graphics line up.

They see a lot of business for the 777x and 3510, more than I imagined, but I guess, that is why the VLA is small.

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