LGWGate49
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LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:42 am

As we close in on the Davies Commission recommendations after the UK general election, I thought it might be good to open one thread on the London runway expansion recommendations, where all additional opinions / information / articles no matter how big or small can be posted (saves new threads where those out of the UK might justifiably be less than interested!). My starter is from Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph, in the UK:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...opt-for-Gatwick-over-Heathrow.html

Personal disclaimer - although LGW is in my profile, I actually have no claim to expand at Gatwick and no desire for a second runway there. With 6 LON airports now I believe there is more than enough capacity for any airline wishing to serve London, and a real country-wide economic case for a new runway has yet to be proved other than expanding BA's balance sheet!

But I am most happy to be proved wrong  
Look for the ridiculous in everything, and you will find it
 
yenne09
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:17 am

Quoting LGWGate49 (Thread starter):
With 6 LON airports now I believe there is more than enough capacity

The problem is not the number of airports because there are so many in UK. Most of them have been built during WWII
or as military base (Stansted). Heathrow has been built as a military airport to avoid public inquiry. No airport hasn been
established as a commercial airport.

Consequently, there are not at the most viable place commercially speaking because they werw never planned as civil airports.
Look at history to see when the airports started their activities: City (1987), Gatwick (1933), Heathrow (1946), Luton (1938),
Lydd (1954), Manston (1915), Southend (1935), Stansted (1943). On the other side, Paris-CDG was opened in 1974
and Munich in 1992.

The airports has not enough ruways to established a real hub airports like CDG aor AMS. and Heathrow is in a very
populated area which is a nonsense.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 9:24 am

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 1):
and Heathrow is in a very
populated area which is a nonsense.

Surely populated areas are exactly where most major airports are located ? LHR is no different to say LAX or JFK in that respect Its only a few of the more recent ones that overwhelmingly cater for transfer passengers that aren't.

With regard to the UK not having any airports that were established as civil facilities, this is also incorrect.
LCY as you mention opened in 1987, this has been civil from day 1
LGW opened in 1933 long before WW2,
LTN opened as a civil airport in 1938 pre WW2
LHR, though stated as a military airport was only ever destined for civil use, it wasn't an attempt to avoid a public enquiry as they hadnt been though of then.
 
Gazdon121
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:37 am

I hope STN get the second runway as there location, have trains from London also a train service from Birmingham stopping at major city's on the way
But that's my opinion plus I work very close to the airport
 
vv701
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:59 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 1):
Heathrow is in a very populated area which is a nonsense.

Which came first, the airport built in 1946 almost 70 years ago or the local population?

A 2011 study by Optimal Economics reported that in 2009 205,900 people were directly or indirectly reliant on Heathrow Airport for their employment. I find it very difficult to imagine a facility that provides what Optimal say is 3.4 per cent of London's employment could somehow be located totally away from any local population. Indeed in the year of the survey LHR handled 65.9 million passengers. Last year that number had grown to 73.4 million. So if they have kept pace the employment figures would have grown to approaching 230,000 by last year.

If a new airport was to be built on Boris Island off the northeast Kent countryside what do you think would happen to that countryside? Where would the numerous (hundred plus) hotels be built? To where would the freight forwarders whose current businesses are based in the Heathrow area move their premises? Oh. Yes. Of course. The Kent countryside.

So build an airport well away from where it is needed and away from any built up area and in much less than another 70 years you will be able to say what a nonsense it was to build an airport in such a populated area.
 
giblets
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:14 pm

Agree, even easy jet, one of Gatwick's biggest customers want the runway in Heathrow,.
Gatwick would also cause havoc, virtually anyone in the UK who wants to use it would need to go round or through london
146, ATR72, Q400, Saab 340, PA-46 Jetprop, Jetstream, E175/195, 707/727/737/747/757/767/777, DC-3/9/10, MD-11/80, A300/310/319/320/321/330/340/350/380 Tristar, BAC 1-11, Trident, Chipmunk, Bell 206/222, Chinook, Puma, Cessna 172, Fokker 70, 100, SRN4!
 
TC957
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting giblets (Reply 5):
Gatwick would also cause havoc, virtually anyone in the UK who wants to use it would need to go round or through london

That I disagree with. Just because a 2nd runway is there doesn't suddenly mean everyone who could have flown from LTN or LHR instead will suddenly want to go from LGW.
 
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speedbored
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 5:27 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 6):
Just because a 2nd runway is there doesn't suddenly mean everyone who could have flown from LTN or LHR instead will suddenly want to go from LGW.

True but there's little point building a new runway to provide extra capacity if the people who will make use of that extra capacity will find it very difficult to get to wherever it is located.

It seems a no-brainer to me. LHR is where the majority of people currently prefer to travel to/from - why else would it have become, by far, the largest and busiest airport when many of the alternative airports have been around for almost as long, if not longer? I see absolutely no reason why passengers making use of any increased capacity would have significantly different preferences from the existing traffic.
 
willd
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:12 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 7):
It seems a no-brainer to me. LHR is where the majority of people currently prefer to travel to/from - why else would it have become, by far, the largest and busiest airport when many of the alternative airports have been around for almost as long, if not longer

Its not that clear cut. The FT had a very interesting article this week about the commission's recommendation. What was interesting, for me, was the sheer cost of both Heathrow schemes, the length of time they will take, the amount of disruption (tunnelling M25 for example) and the jobs that would be created. This is not a a simple decision. My concern is that the UK missed the boat on this by the time the new runway is open another will be required, and this will all start again! The UK should have been looking at this in the 90's.

[Edited 2015-06-14 12:13:47]
 
TC957
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:31 pm

What I don't get about LGW's 2nd runway objections is that people say oh my god, air traffic will double here overnight when it's opened. Err, as if airlines that serve LGW will suddenly be twice the size overnight then to have twice the number of planes. It just means departing flights won't have to queue for sometimes 15 - 20 mins waiting nor will arriving traffic have to stack over the East Sussex countryside so much. All so much better for fuel efficiency and the environment.
 
giblets
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:38 pm

Trying to find a link or figures I read,but even though it is far more expensive, Heathrow gives a stupid amount more return on investment too
146, ATR72, Q400, Saab 340, PA-46 Jetprop, Jetstream, E175/195, 707/727/737/747/757/767/777, DC-3/9/10, MD-11/80, A300/310/319/320/321/330/340/350/380 Tristar, BAC 1-11, Trident, Chipmunk, Bell 206/222, Chinook, Puma, Cessna 172, Fokker 70, 100, SRN4!
 
giblets
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:54 pm

Sorry, second post,
"A second runway at Gatwick would offer an economic boost ranging between £42bn and £127bn, the Commission said, while expanding Heathrow could deliver wider benefits of as much as £214bn."

Source:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11221719/Runways-at-Heathrow-and-Gatwick-will-cost-more-than-forecast.html
146, ATR72, Q400, Saab 340, PA-46 Jetprop, Jetstream, E175/195, 707/727/737/747/757/767/777, DC-3/9/10, MD-11/80, A300/310/319/320/321/330/340/350/380 Tristar, BAC 1-11, Trident, Chipmunk, Bell 206/222, Chinook, Puma, Cessna 172, Fokker 70, 100, SRN4!
 
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speedbored
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Sun Jun 14, 2015 9:10 pm

Wouldn't it be wonderful if, just for a change, a decision with some future-proofing foresight gets made this time - perhaps a second runway at LGW, another at STN and 2 more at LHR, and cast iron legislation to make it all happen quickly, without any faffing about, just for good measure?

Meanwhile, back on planet earth, I suspect that we will just instigate 10 years of very expensive public enquiries while all the business and profits go elsewhere, then decide to open another commission.
 
N1120A
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:24 am

This is yet another problem with privatization of airports. If these were completely public, as they should be, the concept of expanding for the sole benefit of faceless corporations would be out the window.

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 1):
On the other side, Paris-CDG was opened in 1974
and Munich in 1992.

Roissy was extremely well executed, being close to the city, well connected and large. It just happened that there was the space to do it. MUC is different. It is too far out and the S-Bahn takes forever. Riem was much more convenient, but penned in. The problem is that the UK airports, especially Heathrow, didn't prevent expansion of development around the airports and now major disruption will definitely happen.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:48 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 13):

This is yet another problem with privatization of airports. If these were completely public, as they should be, the concept of expanding for the sole benefit of faceless corporations would be out the window.

I can't see how privatisation of the UK airports has caused this problem, the airport operators be it the present ones, or formerly when BAA owned all the major London airports have all been pro expansion. BAA purchased thousands of acres of land and hundreds of houses adjacent to STN in order to build a 2nd runway, the Government then abandoned the project. we then moved on to expansion of LHR, this has now been stalled for years, a few years back many MP's in marginal constituencies in West London were afraid that a new runway would cost them their careers.
Then we have the side show of Boris Island, this is nothing but a rehash of the Maplin Sands idea in the early 1970's.


The problem is a mixture of short termism, fear of losing votes and political grandstanding on the part of our politicians.
 
N1120A
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:52 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 14):
I can't see how privatisation of the UK airports has caused this problem, the airport operators be it the present ones, or formerly when BAA owned all the major London airports have all been pro expansion.

They have been, because it helps the bottom line. The government pays for infrastructure, the private companies benefit. People, rightly, don't like that.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
AndyEastMids
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:36 am

Yet again, aviation has let the railway industry win the argument. We had an excellent proposal for a high speed rail link from London to Birmingham, Manchester, the East Midlands, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh and Glasgow that STOPPED at Heathrow. The railway industry argued that stopping the HS trains at Heathrow would be too much of an inconvenience for the railway, and successfully got the plans changed so that Heathrow would firstly have its own trains (which the railway industry then argued would not be well enough loaded), and then a spur from the high speed line. Now, the railway industry has got its way again and Heathrow passengers wanting to use HS2 will have to trundle up to Old Oak Common and wait for a train there. I really don't see the point in Old Oak Common - the trains will run from Euston so passengers in central London can get it there. All Old Oak Common ends up as is a connection to Heathrow.

Now, consider that there are nearly Heathrow 40 slot pairs used by domestic flights to places the High Speed rail line will go - Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Glasgow and Edinburgh. If I want to fly from [say] New York to Cologne, I get a flight to Frankfurt and then a Lufthansa branded train, with an LH flight number, on to Cologne right from Frankfurt airport. In some countries, like Switzerland, if I board a train I can check baggage at a station, get my boarding pass, etc. We should be doing the same in the UK. End to end, the journey times should be competitive with air if the need for intermediate check-in is removed and city-centre travel times are considered. Stop the frequent High Speed trains AT Heathrow, offer through baggage and through checkin from train to plane and vice versa. Ban airlines from flying domestic flights once the High Speed line is done and release the slots for international flights. Through ticketing, through baggage, through checkin rail to plane and vice versa. But of course the rail industry has won the argument on High Speed, and it isn't coming to Heathrow - it'll be unattractive for passengers to have to trundle most of the way into London before changing and they won't want to do it. Get the interchange between HS1 and HS2 right, and I'd even go as far as banning flights from LHR to Paris and Brussels - but of course, rail has put rail first and no one in government seems to have the common sense to think about a truely integrated transport policy.

Now I recognise that 40 slot pairs does not present the same as another runway, but it'll go some way to alleviating the pain at LHR. I'd actually exclude domestic flying from LGW and LCY too, and maybe leave STN available for domestic to those who really just wanted a point-to-point journey. That would squeeze a little more international capacity out of the system. And if we need a new runway then building an airside-only terminal at Northolt, used for short haul aircraft that don't need the runway length, and a high-speed secure non-stop air-side monorail between LHR and NHT using the LHR terminals for checkin and baggage reclaim would seem to be an option to me - yes, yes, I know some folks will say NATS say the traffic can't be fitted in, but it can be fitted in just down the road at LHR so why not at NHT?

Some will say HS2 is too far away... It is a long way away, especially to Scotland, but so is a new runway at LHR...
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:37 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
They have been, because it helps the bottom line. The government pays for infrastructure, the private companies benefit. People, rightly, don't like that.

That's not the way it works here, it might be the US way but not in the UK. The airport owners have to pay for the infrastructure themselves,

In the UK its only where a scheme is a complete vanity project with no commercial backing, or where the project is in an area where the Government is encouraging development due to it being deemed disadvantaged that the public purse pays.

The respective owners of LHR and LGW are going to have difficulty building a case for public funding when they are repeatedly taking out full page ads claiming huge financial benefits for their respective schemes.


Developers here generally have to pay up for everything the local Councils can throw at them, build some shops and you pay for road improvements miles away, build houses and they have to pay for the roads, schools, local kids playgrounds etc.
 
yenne09
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:25 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 2):
LCY as you mention opened in 1987, this has been civil from day 1

You are right but it is a niche airport.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 2):
LGW opened in 1933 long before WW2,

Gatwick's beginning dates back in the late 1920's.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 2):
LTN opened as a civil airport in 1938 pre WW2

You are right

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 2):
LHR, though stated as a military airport was only ever destined for civil use, it wasn't an
attempt to avoid a public

The beginning of Heathrow dates back to 1929 as a small grass airfield. The "official reason" for the development of
Heathrow in 1944 was that the airport was "for long-distance military aircraft bound for the Far East". Some people want
to built the future of London/UK aviation on this airport. To built the third runway, close to 4,000 houses will have to be
demolished. In Paris, for example, there is a ban to fly over the city. There will be problems with environmental issues.
Which other city in the world wants to built a 21st century airport from a 1944 military airfield with populated area all
around. It was a miracle tha BA flight 38 didn't crash aver populated area. Heathrow will never be competitive in front
of Paris-CDG, Amsterdam or others that has been planned from scratch from an opened from the mid seventies. Other
cities in the world has been able to open new airports and tranfser employees from one place to another: Paris
from Le Bourget and Orly to CDG), Singapore (from Paya Lebar to Changi), Denver from Stapleton to Denver Int'l).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Heathrow_Airport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_London_Heathrow_Airport
 
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speedbored
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:13 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 18):
Heathrow will never be competitive in front of Paris-CDG, Amsterdam or others that has been planned from scratch from an opened from the mid seventies.

Never?   

LHR has always been a busier airport than both CDG and AMS. That seems pretty competitive to me  
 
Egerton
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:20 pm

The key this is to get political support in Parliament for whatever the Airports Commission suggests.

So far, George Osborne the (Conservative) Chancellor of the Exchequer stated in his speech to the CBI on 20th May 2015 (a few weeks after the General Election) that "And when we get Howard Davies’ report on a new runway in the South East, we’re going to take the decision and get it built."

Yesterday on the Andrew Marr Show on BBC 1 TV his guest Tessa Jowell (who is currently Acting Leader of the Labour Party) said "If you commission somebody with expert members of the commission to come up with recommendations, wait to see what they have to say, but then act." She stated that she had already voted in the Shadow Cabinet for an expansion of capacity at Heathrow.

In the FT of 11th June 2015, Peggy Hollinger wrote suggesting that when the Airports Commission comes up with its proposals, it would then take some time for the Government's civil servants to look at these proposals so that a Government decision could be made before Christmas 2015. The implication was if would be best to make sure that there were no obvious errors in the proposals such as would make possible a legal challenge, before the Government made a decision.

So far so good.
 
parapente
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:31 pm

Reply 16.
Of course you are right - all sane people know that 'Heathrow Hub' linking HS2 and the (soon to be electrified) main line to Bristol/West and S Wales.And all local lines both north and south - and London rail links.Its the obvious thing to do.But you only do it if you put the country first and not the jobs of politicians (who are supposed - but do not serve the country - only their own interests).As it stands HS2 is going to be a taxpayers monument to the vanity of the present prime minister (his legacy).Still better than an (Iraq) war as a legacy I guess!
Since they only serve themselves I guess the extra runway will go to Gatwick. But if it does they better take a very hard look at BML2 (you may need to look it up).
 
GrahamR
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:48 pm

Quoting Egerton (Reply 20):

Hadn't realised that Tessa Jowell was the acting leader of the Labour party. Has anyone told Harriet Harman yet??
  
 
GrahamR
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:51 pm

Quoting AndyEastMids (Reply 16):

  
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:08 pm

Quoting LGWGate49 (Thread starter):
With 6 LON airports now I believe there is more than enough capacity for any airline wishing to serve London,

There is capacity available at some of the LON airports, but that in itself is too black and white as any airline can't just serve any airport for a variety of reasons.

The key issue is that capacity at the primary hub airport is essentially not available and even at the secondary airport capacity is seriously limited. This is restricting UK domestic connectivity and therefore hampering economic output, and affecting the ability of the UK's home carriers to penetrate into new markets.

My view is that both LHR and LGW require an extra runway. Without backing of The Airport's Commission, LHR is highly unlikely to receive permission, however my view is that LGW can present a strong case to construct an extra runway in addition to an official recommendation for one only at LHR.


Dan  
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yenne09
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:24 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 19):
LHR has always been a busier airport than both CDG and AMS. That seems pretty competitiv
e to me

Maybe for point to point services but certainly not as a hub for connectivity. Why BA/IAG is looking at Aer Lingus and
why so many people ask urgently for a third runway to have slots to serve emerging countries? Why so many people are
complaining about the lost of connectivity to Amsterdam, Dublin or Paris? And what about UK regional service?
Why BA/IAG wants to develop transatlantic routes from Dublin? Maybe to use slots for other countries. Why Amsterdam,
Dublin and Paris are offering more regional UK services than LHR? LHR is not the London Airport it is BA/IAG airport.
 
AndyEastMids
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:49 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 25):
Why BA/IAG is looking at Aer Lingus

My guess is that IAG will increase capacity on each of Aer Lingus' LHR-DUB services (thereby maintaining its promise to the Irish government to maintain EI frequency), and BA will reduce its operations on the route or pull out completely. There's another eight LHR slot pairs that BA can reuse...
 
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speedbored
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 25):
Maybe for point to point services but certainly not as a hub for connectivity.

You might want to take a look at some real numbers. Huge numbers of people make connections in London.

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 25):
Dublin and Paris are offering more regional UK services than LHR?

You might also want to take a look at how many Irish regional services London offers compared to Dublin, and how many French regional services London offers compared to Paris.

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 25):
LHR is not the London Airport it is BA/IAG airport.

And yet BA/IAG has a lower share of the slots at LHR than AF/KL has at AMS and CDG. Does that make CDG the AF airport, rather than Paris airport, and AMS the KL airport rather than Amsterdam? Thought not.
 
Egerton
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:59 pm

Quoting GrahamR (Reply 22):
Hadn't realised that Tessa Jowell was the acting leader of the Labour party. Has anyone told Harriet Harman yet??

GrahamR, thanks for the correction. It would have been less inaccurate to say Tessa is a senior member of the Shadow Cabinet who is keen to be nominated as the Labour candidate for Mayor of London next year when Boris finishes his term of office.

[Edited 2015-06-15 10:06:14]
 
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flyingclrs727
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:32 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 24):

My view is that both LHR and LGW require an extra runway. Without backing of The Airport's Commission, LHR is highly unlikely to receive permission, however my view is that LGW can present a strong case to construct an extra runway in addition to an offitcial recommendation for one only at LHR.

I agree with Richard Branson, LHR and LGW each need 2 additional runways. Once 1 additional runway is built at each airport, start construction on the second. No American hub airport would have less than 4 runways. I have avoided using Heathrow, because I don't want to have 24 hour layovers. The same destinations from FRA or IST require no more than 3 hour layovers.

I like Tim Leunig's proposals to make LHR a runway hub by building 4 new runways west of the current Heathrow, and reconfiguring the terminals to be patterned on the Atlanta model. In addition, he proposes using steeper approaches and bans on older and noisier aircraft to reduce noise.
 
bennett123
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:43 pm

Any indication of types he would ban?.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:56 pm

Quoting flyingclrs727 (Reply 29):
I like Tim Leunig's proposals to make LHR a runway hub by building 4 new runways west of the current Heathrow, and reconfiguring the terminals to be patterned on the Atlanta model.

Leunig's proposal was one of the poorest pieces of aerodrome design work I have ever seen. The design isn't founded in any form of reality - once you take into consideration 'minor' things like dimensions and aerodrome design standards, it completely falls apart.

Quoting flyingclrs727 (Reply 29):
I agree with Richard Branson, LHR and LGW each need 2 additional runways. Once 1 additional runway is built at each airport, start construction on the second.

In an ideal world perhaps, although I would argue for a second runway at STN too, and just one further runway at LGW.


Dan  
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Bongodog1964
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:18 pm

What would happen if a 3rd runway were built at LHR ?
Firstly it would seem illogical to schedule it to the same extent as the existing runways, we all know the problems this leads to whenever there is any form of poor weather, temporary runway closure or whatever.
If it were scheduled at 50% that would give an extra 300 or so slots each day.

BA might well see this as an opportunity to consolidate on one site and move their LGW flights across, VS would likely wish to do the same. That would be half the extra gone instantly. There would be other airlines presently using LGW who would wish to do the same.
That would leave LGW dominated by U2 much as STN is by FR
 
vv701
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:41 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 25):
Maybe for point to point services but certainly not as a hub for connectivity.

How many transfer passengers does am airport need before you can call it a hub?

LHR had 26.3 million transfer passengers in 2014. Based on a published listing of the world's biggest 50 airports in 2014, if it had zero point to point passengers its transfer passengers alone would have made it somewhere around the world's 60th biggest airport.

I wonder how many (or how few) airports have a greater number of transfer passengers?
 
N1120A
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RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:19 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 24):
My view is that both LHR and LGW require an extra runway.

No question. STN as well.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 17):
That's not the way it works here, it might be the US way but not in the UK. The airport owners have to pay for the infrastructure themselves,

Not really.

Quoting AndyEastMids (Reply 26):
My guess is that IAG will increase capacity on each of Aer Lingus' LHR-DUB services (thereby maintaining its promise to the Irish government to maintain EI frequency), and BA will reduce its operations on the route or pull out completely. There's another eight LHR slot pairs that BA can reuse...

Yes, that will help BA. I think the bigger help is that DUB actually is well positioned for a TATL hub, and has enough short-medium haul O&D to support such a hub. With IAG's money and desire to spread hub traffic, DUB could become a major reliever for LHR.

Quoting flyingclrs727 (Reply 29):
No American hub airport would have less than 4 runways.

EWR has only 3 runways, only 2 of which are useful for widebodies. PHL has 4 runways, but one is only 5000 feet and another is only 6500 feet. The 6500 foot runway helps with some shorter flights, but the 5000 footer doesn't help much. PHX only has 3 runways, 1 of which is 7800 feet. SEA has only 3 runways. BOS has 5 runways, but one is 2500' and one is 5000'.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3542
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:48 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 34):
Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 17):
That's not the way it works here, it might be the US way but not in the UK. The airport owners have to pay for the infrastructure themselves,

Not really.

Yes really
  
 
yenne09
Posts: 682
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:02 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:08 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 27):
You might want to take a look at some real numbers. Huge numbers of people make
connections in London.

I know that LHR is a big airport but it is working at around 99% of its capacity. There is no place to serve emerging
BRIC countries. This is where LHR is loosing traffic to other airports. When I'm visiting my family in Birmingham, if I want
to go up to Birmingham by plane, I have to use either Amsterdam or Paris.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 27):
You might also want to take a look at how many Irish regional services London offers
compared to Dublin, and how many French regional services London offers compared to Paris.

The problem is the connectivity Inside UK not in France or in Ireland. In that sense Dublin is offering regional flights
to 18 regional cities in UK compare to LHR 5 regional services.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1575
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 11:42 am

I don't understand this talk of Heathrow having a monopoly. London has 6 international airports (LHR, LGW, LTN, STN, LCY and Southend). No other city in the world has that many, although many cities are bigger. And yet still most people prefer to fly from Heathrow, which is why is it full and clearly needs a new runway (or two, in my opinion). The politicians have decided to build a runway "someday, somewhere" but none of them have the guts to say LHR and establish a specific timeframe because they are scare of the NIMBY groups that have nothing better to do than complain about everything all day long.

It's also very strange this idea of deciding to build a runway, and then afterwards starting to think "hmmm, but where shall we put it?". Heathrow is full, so let's a build a runway.... somewhere else.
 
YXXMIKE
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:44 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:04 pm

It must be utterly frustrating as a Londoner to watch this all unfold. In particular if you travel to FRA and see what a hub it is for transport; not just aviation. It is well thought out and through the partnership of DB & LH you can buy a ticket which takes you into other German cities (e.g. Cologne) from FRA via rail. If HS2 could link LHR with the cities to the North then you would really be talking; a true multi-modal transport system which benefits the users and the suppliers.

I realize that thousands of people will be impacted no matter what runway is given the go ahead but in reality a new runway is an inevitability and it's going to hurt. I hope for the sake of the UK tax payer that a decision is made sooner rather than later so construction can begin.
 
AndyEastMids
Posts: 1101
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 10:24 pm

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:22 pm

I'm really not sure whether some of the folks commenting on this item have ever traveled from or to LHR. OK, connections may be challenging, but as a point-to-point airport I find it works really well. The new(ish) T2 is excellent, T5 is great, and even T4 is fine. The only one that needs some work is T3, and that's ultimately going to be pulled down. I'd rather use LHR than CDG, FRA or even AMS - although AMS might have improved a bit since they moved to central security screening. Yes, LHR is full, so yes when things go wrong they tend to go badly wrong, and yes more capacity is needed. And yes, HS2 should be coming to LHR rather than going to some out of the way place in west London. But as an airport, on a normal day, it works well and is at least as pleasant an experience as any of the other large airports in Europe (with the exception IMHO of Munich).

Now I'm well aware of the arguments about needing connecting traffic to make some of the thinner long-haul routes out of LHR viable, but aside from that the UK really doesn't need transfer traffic - or at least, over time we'd be better off getting rid of it. People who arrive at LHR, change planes and move on again don't individually put that much money into our economy, but they clog up our airports which in turn creates more noise, pollution and congestion. If we could get to the point where LHR could sustain itself on O&D traffic - become a point to point 787 / A350 airport rather than a hub with 747s and A380s - I'd be quite happy to see international-to-international traffic get dumped on our continental cousins.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10575
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:37 pm

Regarding funding, an interesting perspective to note: Over the next ten years, revenue from APD alone could pay for a new runway to be constructed at BOTH Gatwick and Heathrow.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1575
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:40 pm

I don't think that it is reasonable to say that transferring passengers do not contribute to the UK economy. How much did they pay for their tickets? Each passenger has probably paid between 200$ and 1000$ to travel on BA and the moment they made the reservation money was transferred electronically into a British company's bank account. Would you prefer this money was transferred instead to France or Germany? Not to mention that BA and LHR provide employment to thousands of people in and around the airport. It also happens to connect us to the world.

If you are reallly worried about pollution in the UK, the solution is improve public transport connections to LHR (which are already very good) rather than force thousands of passengers to drive around the M25 in their cars to a place that is only more convenient for people that live south of London. Heathrow is already connected by train and metro and it will soon be on crossrail providing fast connections to all over London.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:37 pm

I don't get why the low-hanging fruit isn't addressed. Politically speaking, an additional runway at STN and LGW are far more tenable. And they will provide some short-term relief to the London area. I don't get why British politicians insist on gridlock over just LHR.

STN can provide more connections to Europe. LGW can provide more TATL services. And DUB can become quite the TATL hub the for the British Isles (already is). All this will buy time to decide on what to do with LHR.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3542
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 42):

I don't get why the low-hanging fruit isn't addressed. Politically speaking, an additional runway at STN and LGW are far more tenable. And they will provide some short-term relief to the London area. I don't get why British politicians insist on gridlock over just LHR.

I think the politicians would much prefer STN, the political fall out from the decision would be virtually zero. The area is solidly Conservative to the point that even a major local protest movement wouldn't unseat the MP. The result in last months election was that he got four times the votes of his nearest rival. The other parties would also like STN as its of no consequence to them. Meanwhile LHR is surrounded by lots of constituencies some of which are marginal.

The problem is the airlines, with the exception of FR they don't want to be sent out to the backwaters of Essex. They don't much like being banished to LGW as seen over the years when they have paid a Kings ransom to move from LGW to LHR whenever a slot has come up for sale.
 
vv701
Posts: 5895
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 43):
The problem is the airlines, with the exception of FR they don't want to be sent out to the backwaters of Essex.

Not just airlines. Passengers as well.

Foe example BA has tried operating LGW (where slots are available today) to JFK on several occasions. The last time they relaunched BA2172/73 was on 30 March 2008. But low passenger demand resulted in the suspension of this BA service on 1 October 2009.

BA tried the above service when the likes of AA, CO and DL suspended all their LGW-USA services on the implementation of the EU / US Open Skies agreement. That was when they moved their LGW flights to LHR. Those that advocate just an LGW solution should ask themselves why at that time CO bought four daily LHR slot pairs from GB Airways for US $208 million simply to move four existing daily flights from LGW to LHR. And it still goes on. AA bought a CY LHR daily slot pair for US $31 million just a year ago.

Are these American airlines totally commercially un-savvy? Of course not. CO demonstrated that it was worth paying out US $52 million per slot pair simply to transfer an existing rotation from LGW to LHR. So the idea that a new runway at LGW and / or a new runway at STN with no expansion of LHR is a panacea for the future of air transport in and around London holds little if any water.

Demonstrably any LGW or, indeed, STN stand-alone solution is not tenable . If such a programme were to be implemented the winners would be AMS and KL, CDG and AF and / or FRA and LH. Here the perception put forward by others in this thread that LH|R iis not a hub is unrealistic. For example on my last long haul flight from LHR (to India), I as sitting close to a Canadian travelling on business from YVR, a Canadian mother who had earlier flown from her home airport to YYZ and was taking her very young child to see its grandparents for the first time and an American couple travelling on holiday from BOS. So my wife, a British couple and myself were in a small minority in our immediate area of the cabin who had not made a TATL flight prior to boarding our flight to India.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:24 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 43):
The problem is the airlines,
Quoting VV701 (Reply 44):
Not just airlines. Passengers as well.

I get all this. But surely, expansions at STN and LGW, together will provide some short-term relief to LHR. Airlines, might not move ops. But those airlines already operating at STN and LGW will have a bit of room to grow and they will naturally absorb some of the demand growth at LHR.

LHR being supply constrained will alwasy be more expensive to operate from. And this is in turn will create some incentive for airlines and passengers to use STN and LGW. It already happens now. There's a reason why BA flies from LGW, instead of consolidating entirely at LHR.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 44):
Demonstrably any LGW or, indeed, STN stand-alone solution is not tenable . If such a programme were to be implemented the winners would be AMS and KL, CDG and AF and / or FRA and LH.

Not necessarily. Expanding at LGW and STN might allow those airports to absorb more o/d traffic from LHR and allow LHR to further grow in its hubs role.
 
SelseyBill
Posts: 710
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 41):
If you are reallly worried about pollution in the UK, the solution is improve public transport connections to LHR (which are already very good) rather than force thousands of passengers to drive around the M25 in their cars to a place that is only more convenient for people that live south of London.

Never understood why people in the UK seem to get so concerned about the air quality/pollution argument.

For a start, everyone who complains who lives in the Heathrow area knew the airport was there before they moved in; and second; whilst we are busy talking, China and India will be getting on building 70+ new airports in the next few decades.

If you're really worried about world emissions and air quality; go speak to the Chinese first....... UK emmissions are miniscule in comparison.
 
rtfm
Posts: 421
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 5:35 pm

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:24 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 45):
There's a reason why BA flies from LGW, instead of consolidating entirely at LHR.

There is - it's because LHR isn't big enough....
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3542
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 45):
But surely, expansions at STN and LGW, together will provide some short-term relief to LHR.

STN presently handles around 20m passengers, but has a capacity of over 30m There's plenty of space available, but the carriers don't want to move there

Quoting YTZ (Reply 45):
And this is in turn will create some incentive for airlines and passengers to use STN and LGW. It already happens now. There's a reason why BA flies from LGW, instead of consolidating entirely at LHR.

BA flies from LGW as it hasn't got the slots available at LHR. I posted earlier that I would expect both BA and VS to move their entire operations into LHR if a 3rd runway were built. The higher landing and passenger fees would be offset by the savings on operating from one hub.
 
yenne09
Posts: 682
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:02 am

RE: LON Runway Expansion Thread

Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 42):
I don't get why British politicians insist on gridlock over just LHR.

This is the BA/IAG marketing that a third runway at Heathrow will solve UK aviation.

1-The construction of a third runway at LHR will take between 15 to 20 years to complete because there will be around
4,000 houses to demolish before everything. What will be the situation in 20 years, nobody knows. Many people do
not understand the challenge and the time it will take to have a third runway.

2-There is no shortage capacity in the London area. The problem is how to distribute the capacity among London
airports: Ashford-Lydd, City, Gatwick, Heathrow, Luton, Southend, Stansted, No other cities in the world has so much airport
capacity and so many airports. There are so many cities in the world with at least 2 airports but each of them has a
specific role. It is not clear at this moment what is the place of each in London.

3-The problem with London is how to optimize the connectivity. At this level, if people wants a real hub airport (with at
least 4 runways for example), the only practical solution is to build it at Stansted and even to close Heathrow or at
least reduced its size.

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