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wn676
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AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:19 pm

I'll start this off by saying, I know we had a thread on this earlier this year...

PHL To HNL For American Possible? (by Phillyramp270 Apr 6 2015 in Civil Aviation)

While I was in complete agreement with why we wouldn't see this launched, recently I've heard that AA is studying this route for a possible launch with a 772. FWIW, I normally don't subscribe to breakroom/crew room rumors, but this is coming out from higher up, so I'll throw it out there.

When CLT-HNL was discontinued there were also similar discussions involving PHL, but that was US in the infancy of increasing their widebody lift, and also about 5 years ago. I'm still skeptical especially regarding the 772 bit, but nevertheless, what do you all think? Though it doesn't have the O&D pull of EWR/JFK, PHL can still draw a lot of connections from that region. Could this have any merit, coexisting with both UA and HA up the road?

[Edited 2015-06-14 11:21:50]
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
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compensateme
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:30 pm

PHL-HNL on a 777 sounds more like wishful thinking than even a rumor. The route would tie-up a premium-configured 777 for 22-23 hours, and at the end of the day, that could make more money for AA elsewhere in the system. ORD-HNL would likely be a priority over PHL...
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LONGisland89
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:36 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 1):
The route would tie-up a premium-configured 777 for 22-23 hours

Exactly, both 772 configurations are too premium heavy. If we're to see PHL-HNL, it'll be with a 332 or 763.
 
azjubilee
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:39 pm

Before anyone chimes in, yes, there is demand from the east coast to Hawaii. People DO go to Hawaii from the east coast, despite the fallacy that is rampant around here. Turns out that it's the area of the USA that draws the second highest visitor count to Hawaii. But we wouldn't want facts to get in the way of the discussion would we? After-all, the UA and HA flights from EWR and JFK are full of people each day.

That said, I'd think AA could find better uses for a 777, that would drive MORE revenue and MORE profit. Seems like a 763 would be more realistic. And yes, it does have the range. They can easily funnel their east coast traffic through many of their hubs, as they do today. It would be interesting however, to see if a PHL-HNL flight would bring some relief to their current flights, especially in light of their LAX-Hawaii changes with the introduction of the 321. More capacity to Hawaii right now isn't exactly what the market needs, if everyone wants to stay profitable.
 
AT
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:11 pm

oh yes the 767 should easily have the range. I've flown the 764 from EWR to HNL on United (then Continental) and the 763 has more range. But right now, there are relatively convenient connections for US East Coast originating passengers rom both Los Angeles and Dallas, so is an additional flight needed, let alone one from PHL?

Also does anyone have the current flight and equipment breakdown for AA flights to the different Hawaiian airports?
 
MIflyer12
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:31 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
After-all, the UA and HA flights from EWR and JFK are full of people each day.

Not 'each day' because HA can't even operate to HNL daily year-round from the country's biggest air market.

The number of cities supporting non-stop international business class seating to HNL daily from the Eastern Time Zone can be counted on the fingers of a mutilated hand, and PHL isn't going to be one of them. If the number of people paying a real seating premium isn't large enough, everybody connects - typically West Coast airports.
 
planeguy727
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:05 pm

For this to work over time there needs to be sufficient demand from the O&D crowd willing to pay a premium to avoid a cx in DFW, PHX, or LAX. I suspect the majority are price elastic and will take the cx to save money. If true then there is no value to routing cx pax over PHL when there are three other hubs will already available capacity.

The other potential group are cities in the east that would require a double cx to reach HNL. I theorize there are not enough of these pax to make this a consistently profitable service.
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Miami
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:06 pm

77E may be too big but I'm sure this route (if it happens) would do great on a 788.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
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compensateme
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:13 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 7):
77E may be too big but I'm sure this route (if it happens) would do great on a 788.

It'll be years before AA operates the 787 into Hawaii (just as it was for the 767 from AA, UA & DL) and I doubt PHL will be its first choice.
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DocLightning
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):

Before anyone chimes in, yes, there is demand from the east coast to Hawaii. People DO go to Hawaii from the east coast, despite the fallacy that is rampant around here. Turns out that it's the area of the USA that draws the second highest visitor count to Hawaii. But we wouldn't want facts to get in the way of the discussion would we? After-all, the UA and HA flights from EWR and JFK are full of people each day.

True, but the question is: what method for accomplishing this works best for the airlines? Sure, a PHL-HNL flight is fantastic for people in Philly, it's less useful for people in Boston or Pittsburgh or Washington, D.C. (assuming the latter don't want to fly UA). So does it make more sense to collect all those passengers at LAX or SFO and then fly them on to their respective Hawaiian destinations, or does it make more sense to collect them at PHL and then fly them to HNL where some might need to connect again?

Obviously, there are East Coast-HNL nonstops, so there is some sense in that market, but the question is how many flights make sense? If I'm in Boston and I want to go to Maui, it makes more sense for me to connect on the west coast and then go straight to OGG from there than it does for me to go to PHL (or JFK or ORD), then to HNL, and then to OGG.
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Miami
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:30 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 8):
It'll be years before AA operates the 787 into Hawaii

Why say that? I can see it being a 787 or 767 route but you never know.

Quoting compensateme (Reply 8):
I doubt PHL will be its first choice.

What would be the first choice in your opinion? JFK? ORD?

[Edited 2015-06-14 13:32:26]
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:56 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 10):
Why say that? I can see it being a 787 or 767 route but you never know.

Because AA has too few 787s currently, and since the 787 will be the replacement for the 767 there won't be many spares for use on fantasy routes like PHL-HNL.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
azjubilee
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:17 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 5):

HAL flies JFK most of the year daily with high load factors. "Making it work" is exactly what they're doing, going less than daily during the shoulder seasons. It hardly suggests failure or struggle. Further, NY may be the largest travel market in the country, but it isn't the largest market to Hawaii. And nobody is expecting, suggesting or even attempting to provide nonstop east-coast-Hawaii flying to cater to the international business traveler, who are the target for international business class seats.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):

That's basically my point. AA can send their east coast passengers via their current flights. There is a certain segment of the population on the east coast, that when flying to Hawaii, will pay the premium for the nonstop flight. That itself, limits the opportunity for the airlines to provide such service, because in the end, their nonstop is competing with their 1-stop. HAL is the only one that sees the role reversed and as such, is at a pricing disadvantage. HAL has to reach and catch as much of the market for people willing to pay the nonstop premium, as opposed to the discounted 1 stop itinerary.
 
usairways85
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:47 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 1):
The route would tie-up a premium-configured 777 for 22-23 hours,

And it really could be more than that. AA does not have the broader network in either PHL or HNL to have alternatives to route the aircraft in the most efficient manner.

UA recently routed their EWR-HNL-EWR aircraft in this manner over a several day period:
GRU-EWR (3 hour layover)
EWR-HNL (~18 hour layover, where I assume maintenance was performed)
HNL-SFO (2 hour layover)
SFO-HNL (2 hour layover)
HNL-EWR

The only route AA could do a short PHL layover is TLV, otherwise the aircraft would sit overnight at PHL. The aircraft would then sit in HNL for 3-5 hours, arrive midday in PHL and sit for another 4-6 hours before it goes out on a TA flight.
 
strfyr51
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:13 am

the real Question is? Can they make money or is this just a cattle car for Low Yields??
 
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DocLightning
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:32 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 12):
That's basically my point. AA can send their east coast passengers via their current flights. There is a certain segment of the population on the east coast, that when flying to Hawaii, will pay the premium for the nonstop flight. That itself, limits the opportunity for the airlines to provide such service, because in the end, their nonstop is competing with their 1-stop. HAL is the only one that sees the role reversed and as such, is at a pricing disadvantage. HAL has to reach and catch as much of the market for people willing to pay the nonstop premium, as opposed to the discounted 1 stop itinerary.

AND any flight to HNL is only a nonstop if you are going to Oahu. If you're going to any other island, you're connecting. So now it's a matter of whether you'd like to be on a 737, 757, 767, 777, or A330 across the ocean. As for me, of course I like widebodies but in the end, I could care less. A 737/757 from LIH to SFO is no different than a 737/757 from SFO to JFK. And ten hours in a Y-class seat is ten hours in a Y-class seat, regardless of the aircraft type.
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azjubilee
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:52 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):

Very good point. In the end, one is likely to have to make a stop to get to their final destination in Hawaii. After all, those east coast flights are designed for the region not only ATL, EWR or JFK. This further explains my point that the expensive to operate nonstop from the east coast to Hawaii has to come at a fare premium due to cost and therefore has to be priced accordingly. The challenge is finding the balance so as not to cannibalize their western/central hub flying for AA and the others. And for HA to price and attract people accordingly who are willing to pay what it takes to make the flight profitable.
 
crownvic
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:19 am

The big question. Why does everyone think that PHL cannot handle any AA international route, that is brought up on this forum? Do people here hate the Eagles that much? Let's be serious and have an answer to this question. I am sure you all would have doubted every international city that US added from PHL, before this forum ever existed. Why the CONSTANT negativity?
 
Sevensixtyseven
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:43 am

Quoting crownvic (Reply 17):

It's just like PHX, everyone on a.net thinks it's going to fail very quickly. Sorry, airports that have 40 million pax a year aren't just going to collapse in a second.
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RemoFlyer
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:25 am

Quoting crownvic (Reply 17):
The big question. Why does everyone think that PHL cannot handle any AA international route, that is brought up on this forum? Do people here hate the Eagles that much? Let's be serious and have an answer to this question. I am sure you all would have doubted every international city that US added from PHL, before this forum ever existed. Why the CONSTANT negativity?

I am almost 100% certain PHL will NOT be able to sustain international service to/from HNL.

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 18):

It's just like PHX, everyone on a.net thinks it's going to fail very quickly. Sorry, airports that have 40 million pax a year aren't just going to collapse in a second.

I think PHX has 40 million passengers pass through its airport BECAUSE it's a hub and not the other way around.
 
cha747
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:40 am

Quoting crownvic (Reply 17):
The big question. Why does everyone think that PHL cannot handle any AA international route, that is brought up on this forum? Do people here hate the Eagles that much? Let's be serious and have an answer to this question. I am sure you all would have doubted every international city that US added from PHL, before this forum ever existed. Why the CONSTANT negativity?

Crownvic welcome to my RU list! You are correct, Philly has had substantial international growth especially to Europe since the early 90's. People don't realize that people from an approximate 60 mile radius call this their home airport and WILL NOT travel as far as DC, BWI, EWR, or JFK unless they absolutely have to. People on this forum think that Philadelphians, Southeastern Pennsylvanians, Delawareans, South Jerseyans, and Marylanders will just flock to the NYC airports for nonstops or will be OK connecting through ORD, DFW, CLT, Heaven (I mean ATL), or whereveer.

While I don't think AA will be hurrying to get PHL-HNL or CLT-HNL up and running, there are enplanements and there is a market. When the time is correct, it will happen.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:45 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
And ten hours in a Y-class seat is ten hours in a Y-class seat, regardless of the aircraft type.

Not entirely. I would take a 2x3x2 767 over any 3x3 narrobody even without IFE.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
cha747
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:44 am

Quoting RemoFlyer (Reply 19):
I am almost 100% certain PHL will NOT be able to sustain international service to/from HNL.

I'm 100% certain of that as well...as HNL is not an international destination from PHL  
Piedmontgirl was always right
 
crownvic
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:47 am

Quoting RemoFlyer (Reply 19):
Quoting crownvic (Reply 17):
The big question. Why does everyone think that PHL cannot handle any AA international route, that is brought up on this forum? Do people here hate the Eagles that much? Let's be serious and have an answer to this question. I am sure you all would have doubted every international city that US added from PHL, before this forum ever existed. Why the CONSTANT negativity?

I am almost 100% certain PHL will NOT be able to sustain international service to/from HNL.

OK, I think I am aware that Hawaii is not international. Maybe I should have used the term "long haul" with AA. My point is, whether it is long haul or international, anything to do with PHL is slammed. Meanwhile, you have UAL pulling out of JFK. While PHL may never be JFK, there is no doubt the airport has made progress in securing a lot of international service with US. Whether this continues with AA, time will tell. I just do not understand the constant negativity.
 
dank
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:03 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):

Before anyone chimes in, yes, there is demand from the east coast to Hawaii. People DO go to Hawaii from the east coast, despite the fallacy that is rampant around here. Turns out that it's the area of the USA that draws the second highest visitor count to Hawaii. But we wouldn't want facts to get in the way of the discussion would we? After-all, the UA and HA flights from EWR and JFK are full of people each day.

there isn't a debate that there isn't demand from the east coast. the debate is whether there is sufficient premium demand to justify a higher priced ticket to non-stop it over a one-stop flight.
 
by738
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:36 am

would be a great one stop connection from Europe and break up the long trek
 
bobnwa
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:12 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
After-all, the UA and HA flights from EWR and JFK are full of people each day.

Bet you can't back that up with actual facts.
 
phillyramp270
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:57 pm

There's definitely a market for HNL... Feeding that flight would not be a problem. Only question is what plane would they be using?
Barack Obama is not a foreign born, brown skinned, anti-war socialist who gives away healthcare. You're thinking of Jesu
 
azjubilee
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:53 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 26):

When I said "full of people" I was not implying 100% load factors. Obviously, no airline ever runs 100% LF's on every flight all the time. I was saying there are butts in seats, therefore people actually want to fly on these flights.

As for facts? Here you go: http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=5 These are the monthly load factors for HAL out of JFK since the service started. I can't find a breakdown for a specific route, so it's hard to show UA's EWR-HNL statistics or DL's JFK-HNL. If HAL's LFs are any indication, UAs and DLs are likely in the same ballpark.
 
ripcordd
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:43 pm

It's not load factors its the yield there is plenty 1 stop connections from everywhere to HNL that can bring in higher yields ...I mean AA has pulled ORD-HNL to fly a 2nd Daily Seasonal DFW-OGG and during spring AA had 3x DFW-HNL and 2 DFW-OGG yet not 1 flight from ORD which is better place than PHL for a HNL flight
 
FoxBravo
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RE: AA PHL-HNL Rumor (again...)

Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:47 pm

At most I could see this as a very seasonal, weekly route, like DL does with JFK-HNL around Christmas. Probably not a 777 though--maybe an A330.
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