tortugamon
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:40 am

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=20295&item=129452

Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Volga-Dnepr Group, a world leader in transportation of unique, oversize and heavy cargo, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to further the Group’s fleet expansion with 20 additional 747-8 Freighters, valued at $7.4 billion at list prices.
....
MOI only but a big get for the 747 program if it goes firm.

edit another detail: "These additional 20 airplanes will be acquired through a mix of direct purchases and leasing over the next seven years."
....
Program around until 2022?

tortugamon

[Edited 2015-06-17 00:43:37]
 
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gennadius
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:49 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
MOI only but a big get for the 747 program.

Very true. Interestingly, it will be a mix of direct purchases, like their original 5 for ABC, as well as leases, which the frame they took on last year seems to be.

Another interesting note is that they state they will be delivered over the next 7 years.

With this MoU, perhaps the singleton that was announced a couple of weeks back is not for ABC.
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Andy33
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:50 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
Program around until 2022?

Depends on what other orders are received, surely? There are several white-tails around now, aren't there, Boeing clearly aren't averse to building 748s and parking them until either they get an order or the customer's requested delivery date falls due. Certainly this order, when firmed, does give the program around two years more at the slowest production rate.
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:54 am

Good news for my favorite widebody for sure, but I do wish those were 748-Is getting that MOI. :/

[Edited 2015-06-17 00:55:17]
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:58 am

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 2):
There are several white-tails around now, aren't there, Boeing clearly aren't averse to building 748s and parking them until either they get an order or the customer's requested delivery date falls due.

There are 5 white tail -8Fs. The last remaining Atlas NTU, which was wearing Seattle Seahawks livery a couple of years ago, and th 4 Asiana NTUs. Silk Way will likely take one of those this year, and the UFO from a couple of weeks back may be another one for this year.

Beyond that, there is the lone -8i that was a test frame and was also used for PIP testing and certification.
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:20 am

It's only a MoU... I can still see the 747 production stopping around 2020, with the last aircraft being built for ABC and the USAF (new Air Force one). Perhaps Boeing will park these for two years til ABC is ready to receive them.
What's also possible is that they already made deals to pick up second hand frames and only get, say, 10 new built ones.
Still good news for the 747 program, hope they'll get a passenger order too, even a small top up would be great.
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:47 am

Didn't Cargolux also say recently that they were interested in more?
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:55 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
MOI only but a big get for the 747 program if it goes firm.

It would be very nice for this program is this possible order would materialise.  
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:00 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 6):

Didn't Cargolux also say recently that they were interested in more?

There are several operators which should be interested in 748Fs, especially airlines operating rather young 744Fs which do not need replacement before the 2020s:
SQ Cargo, China Airlines Cargo, KLM Martinair, Asiana Cargo, plus Atlas Air and Cathay Pacific which both still operate sizable numbers of 744Fs along their 748Fs. I see a potential of ca. 40 frames among those mentioned.
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:14 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Volga-Dnepr Group, a world leader in transportation of unique, oversize and heavy cargo, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to further the Group’s fleet expansion with 20 additional 747-8 Freighters, valued at $7.4 billion at list prices.
....
MOI only but a big get for the 747 program if it goes firm

Will be good news for the program when it is firmed up.

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
edit another detail: "These additional 20 airplanes will be acquired through a mix of direct purchases and leasing over the next seven years."
....
Program around until 2022?

At the end of May 2015 Boeing has 14 748F and 18 748i unfilled orders plus they booked a 748BBJ at the start of June so 33 unfilled already. Providing this order is firmed that will take it to 53 unfilled orders. Provided Boeing is still producing at 1 a month this would equate to just under 4 and half years or production taking it to the end of 2019.

Also if this is confirmed it will be Boeing's best year for sales on the 747 line since 2006.

Current 747 order list below

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
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trex8
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:31 am

Wonder if BR will still get some 747-8s even with the 777F MOU.Its a significant downsizing of their freighter fleet with only 5 777Fs. This could replace their 5 744BDSFs but they still have 3 744Fs and they had up to 6 MD11s also at one time.
 
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Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:49 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 10):
This could replace their 5 744BDSFs but they still have 3 744Fs

The MOU for 5777F more than likely will replace the 5 744BDSF which are around 23 years old. The 3 744F's are between 13 and 14 years old so these would be good for some time.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:15 pm

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 2):
Boeing clearly aren't averse to building 748s and parking them until either they get an order or the customer's requested delivery date falls due.

Clearly? I doubt either vendor likes having untaken frames sitting around PAE/TLS. They'd much rather have the a/c delivered and the resulting cash flowing into the accounts, but in the slow-moving VLA market you end up doing some things you'd not have to do in other segments of the market.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:28 pm

Always makes me wonder how Airlines based in countries with a factually non existant industrial home base can employ fleets of 20+or even 30+ large freighters.
And I don't mean CV, they are based in a EU single market Country.

           
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:06 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
Always makes me wonder how Airlines based in countries with a factually non existant industrial home base can employ fleets of 20+or even 30+ large freighters.

wondered about that one myself, but - even in the current crisis, Devaluation etc etc - they must be pretty confident in their Business model, this is great News for the ´48!
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:11 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
Always makes me wonder how Airlines based in countries with a factually non-existent industrial home base can employ fleets of 20+or even 30+ large freighters.

Moving product for countries with industrial home bases?
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:20 pm

Central Asia and Eastern Europe is a very big place... it's not like Germany... they need freighters
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):

Moving product for countries with industrial home bases?


Yes, my question was tongue in cheek of course. Fact is, in cargo the global open skies minus cabotage exists already. Aerologic recently opend a route from HKG to CVG, mainly for DHL.
Volga Dnjepr's ABC Cargo flies from Western Europe (FRA/AMS to ORD, just to mention one route. It would be nice of course if LH or AF/KL or CV could pick up freight on their mandatory tech stops in Russia as well. But then, what's there to pick up?
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:26 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
Always makes me wonder how Airlines based in countries with a factually non existant industrial home base can employ fleets of 20+or even 30+ large freighters.
And I don't mean CV, they are based in a EU single market Country.

Russia is the number 8 exporter in the world. While most of that is oil, there is a lot of freight moving around to support it. I believe AirBridge Cargo is doing a lot of business with freight forwarders.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting na (Reply 8):
There are several operators which should be interested in 748Fs, especially airlines operating rather young 744Fs which do not need replacement before the 2020s:
SQ Cargo, China Airlines Cargo, KLM Martinair, Asiana Cargo, plus Atlas Air and Cathay Pacific which both still operate sizable numbers of 744Fs along their 748Fs. I see a potential of ca. 40 frames among those mentioned.

I don't. I see all those liveries on 777Fs in time.

[Edited 2015-06-17 06:30:50]
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:34 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):
Russia is the number 8 exporter in the world. While most of that is oil, there is a lot of freight moving around to support it. I believe AirBridge Cargo is doing a lot of business with freight forwarders.

Don't forget weapons and/or aircraft components, I've seen many pictures of their An-124´s moving around either PAK-FA's, tanks, and even some SSJ100 frames. IIRC they have many contracts in place with the Russian government.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:49 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):

Russia is the number 8 exporter in the world. While most of that is oil, there is a lot of freight moving around to support it. I believe AirBridge Cargo is doing a lot of business with freight forwarders.


Raw materials most of it. I spoke about exports from, not imports to Russia. Any Airline retails through freight forwrders, except the Integrators who are therefore not cargo or combination carriers.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:22 pm

With that new rule in South Korea limiting airframes to 20 year service lives,

How many 748I and /or 748F's might Asiana and Korean Air order to

replace those airplanes forced into retirement ?
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:29 pm

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 22):
With that new rule in South Korea limiting airframes to 20 year service lives,How many 748I and /or 748F's might Asiana and Korean Air order toreplace those airplanes forced into retirement ?

I would love to think they would be replaced by 748i's. However, it is much more likely they will be replaced by the big twins offered by B and A. You never know though. Fingers crossed.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:33 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 9):
Provided Boeing is still producing at 1 a month this would equate to just under 4 and half years or production taking it to the end of 2019.

This is good news for the 747 program. I don't think they will be closing it down any time soon.

If we consider CX, Cargolux and Atlas have all stated they would like to order more 748F's and CI will need to replace twenty 747F's over the next ten years there is potential for at least another 30-40 airframes on top of what has already been ordered there alone.

If we throw into the mix at least another sixty 744F's that are pre 2000 and will be up for retirement around 2022-25 mark, we have another five years of production.

Boeing have already stated the 747 program will be profitable at one delivery per month, so from this perspective Boeing could well and truly have a full have full production for the next ten years.

Happy days for the workers on the 747 line.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:37 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):

Always makes me wonder how Airlines based in countries with a factually non existant industrial home base can employ fleets of 20+or even 30+ large freighters.
And I don't mean CV, they are based in a EU single market Country.

You also have to remember their capability. One thing that Volga-Dnepr has going for them is that they operate aircraft that can carry things others cannot, and they are pretty much the only commercial operator of those types in the world. For example, we see AN-124s and even they Myira at IAH from time to time. Would it have been easier to hire one of the many US cargo operators to move these items? Possibly, however, much of this is specialized oilfield equipment that just wont fit well in anything else. Its a pretty interesting operation they have running there.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:40 pm

I hate to point this out... but the 748 program is inching towards respectability. Not so dead after all. Let's hope this goes firm.

[Edited 2015-06-17 08:37:48]
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 25):
For example, we see AN-124s and even they Myira at IAH from time to time. Would it have been easier to hire one of the many US cargo operators to move these items? Possibly, however, much of this is specialized oilfield equipment that just

Still, mainly imports. It is true that the nose loading Feature of the 747s in General are an asset, but the 14 Units CV operates plus what you can charter from Atlas, including the 2 Atlas aircraft which are flying for Panalpina, a freight forwarder who is heavily engaged in oil Equipment traffic,tells me that the world could do without ABC Cargo.
The Antonovs are needed for niche freight, but the An225 is owned and operated by Antonov themselves.

Generally, good for Boeing and the 747 Programme.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:26 pm

Now, lets get some orders for 747-8I's!   
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 24):
Boeing have already stated the 747 program will be profitable at one delivery per month, so from this perspective Boeing could well and truly have a full have full production for the next ten years.

Boeing has clearly been trying hard to find a bridge for the 747-8 program until the high-usage 744F fleet is ready for replacement in the 2020s. This gets them a chunk of the way there.

Quoting ams747757 (Reply 28):
Now, lets get some orders for 747-8I's!

Unlike the F, I just don't know who would order it, beyond a few scattered BBJ frames. If the Russian economy starts recovering, Transaero could use a few more than they've ordered so far. An Air China top-up is also plausible. Pretty much every other candidate airline has already chosen other aircraft instead.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting ams747757 (Reply 28):
Now, lets get some orders for 747-8I's!   

I am starting to wonder if maybe the future for the 748 as a passenger hauler is a combi of sorts. Not sure how that would be configured and not sure if you get away from the nose loader, that the 777F becomes a better deal real quick...
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
Unlike the F, I just don't know who would order it

Other possible customers for the 8i: El Al (maybe they'll choose the 777-9X but I don't see them choosing the A380 over the 748i), Asiana, Turkish, Air New Zealand,...

Always good news to see an airline thinking of buying 747s.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:51 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 6):

Didn't Cargolux also say recently that they were interested in more?

Well if they keep bending them on the runway they will surely need them.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 31):
El Al

No money, and the 747-8 isn't an easy plane to finance. I agree about 6 would work well, if only they could finance them. But I think end-of-line 777-300ERs are a more realistic option.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 31):
Asiana

Seems rather unlikely given their commitment to the A350-1000.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 31):
Turkish

Has oscillated between saying no VLA is necessary and flirting with various cheap A380 deals.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 31):
Air New Zealand

Won't need a 777-300ER replacement for some years.

Within the last couple of years I thought the best candidates were CX, CA, CI, BR, IB. CA ordered. The others all went elsewhere: CX/CI/BR to 777-300ERs and IB to A350-1000s.
 
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gennadius
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:06 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 24):
This is good news for the 747 program. I don't think they will be closing it down any time soon.

If we consider CX, Cargolux and Atlas have all stated they would like to order more 748F's and CI will need to replace twenty 747F's over the next ten years there is potential for at least another 30-40 airframes on top of what has already been ordered there alone.

If we throw into the mix at least another sixty 744F's that are pre 2000 and will be up for retirement around 2022-25 mark, we have another five years of production.

Good points for sure. I think Asiana is one that will likely end up placing orders for the -8F as well. The deal that caused Boeing to build 4 frames for them on spec may have fallen through last year, but it will likely come back in one form or another.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
Unlike the F, I just don't know who would order it, beyond a few scattered BBJ frames. If the Russian economy starts recovering, Transaero could use a few more than they've ordered so far. An Air China top-up is also plausible.

This is a much tougher road, for sure. However, there are still some possibilities out there where the niche that the -8i serves exists. American 767 mentions a few in reply 31. I would add in China Airlines. You mention that they have an extensive 747 freighter fleet already. Commonality and the need to replace the passenger frames may possibly drive an order here.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 9):
At the end of May 2015 Boeing has 14 748F and 18 748i unfilled orders plus they booked a 748BBJ at the start of June so 33 unfilled already.

The Unidentified order from early this month was a -8F according to their update the week it was booked. Also, Boeing is still keeping Arik's 2 -8is on the books. Those were rumored to have been converted to 77Ws last year, but it seems nothing official has happened yet.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting gennadius (Reply 34):
Commonality and the need to replace the passenger frames may possibly drive an order here.

Which is why I always thought Cathay would be a customer for the 8i, in addition for the 8F they already fly. I argued about that a while ago. Why would they choose the A380 over the 748i? That was my argument. I did think of Cathay when writing my reply above but I didn't mention it because I know they already chose the A350-900 and the 777-9X.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:48 pm

Quoting gennadius (Reply 35):
The Unidentified order from early this month was a -8F according to their update the week it was booked. Also, Boeing is still keeping Arik's 2 -8is on the books. Those were rumored to have been converted to 77Ws last year, but it seems nothing official has happened yet.

When was the unidentified order booked and are there any suspicions on who it is for?
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:48 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 37):
When was the unidentified order booked and are there any suspicions on who it is for?

It was back on June 4th.

http://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/status/606478890379264002

At the time, I thought it was another singleton order for ABC, much like what they did last year. Earlier in the year they spoke about ordering 1 or possibly 2 frames. However, with the announcement today, I don't know if that's likely anymore, unless this ends up being part of that larger order.

There was also talk about Saudia taking up the third Atlas NTU perhaps.

[Edited 2015-06-17 13:27:38]
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:06 pm

I personally find it intriguing that Kalitta Air recently completed construction on a 747-8-spec hangar at their maintenance facility at OSC.

All I'm saying is, stranger things have happened...
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:13 pm

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 39):

I personally find it intriguing that Kalitta Air recently completed construction on a 747-8-spec hangar at their maintenance facility at OSC.

All I'm saying is, stranger things have happened...

Might as well if building new right? Don't they do some outsource MX work too?
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:42 pm

Quoting gennadius (Reply 38):
However, with the announcement today, I don't know if that's likely anymore, unless this ends up being part of that larger order.

If the new order is a mixture of buy and lease, then you may not see it show up as a single block of 20.
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 39):
I personally find it intriguing that Kalitta Air recently completed construction on a 747-8-spec hangar at their maintenance facility at OSC.

All I'm saying is, stranger things have happened...

Didn't Kalitta buy a whitetail 744F in the past couple of years?
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:04 pm

What are the chances of this enabling the production to extend to such a point in time that the 748s could replace retiring A380s? Taking an optimists point of view, further orders from Cargolux, Transaero, Cathay, Atlas, El Al and replacing older 744Fs provides more than enough breathing space.

Saudia? Iran Air? At a stretch, possibly even South African?

[Edited 2015-06-17 14:11:00]
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:07 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 43):
What are the chances of this enabling the production to extend to such a point in time that the 748s could replace retiring A380s?

Pretty much zero, since continuing to fly the old A380 would be more attractive to most operators than replacing it with a 747-8. The reason to extend production is so that 747-8Fs can replace retiring 747-400(ER)Fs.
 
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:12 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):

Odds on orders from Saudia, Iran Air, El Al and South African?
 
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American 767
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Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:23 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 45):
Iran Air

I don't think Iran Air will order any of them brand new from Boeing. Because they seem to fly used Classic 747s and obsolete A300s instead of flying current generation aircraft. In 25 or 30 years from now when the 747-8i will be obsolete then maybe they'll pick up ex-Lufthansa or ex-Korean 8is which will be phased out from the initial operators by then. Iran Air is still flying one 747-SP!
Ben Soriano
 
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seabosdca
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Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:48 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 45):
Saudia

They bought a whole pile of 777-300ERs which should serve all of their large-capacity needs except Hajj, for which they'll retain some 747-400s.

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 45):
Iran Air

Even if applicable sanctions are lifted in the wake of a nuclear deal, it will be a big challenge for them to finance something like a 747-8. Operationally it would work well for them but I think they would find financing for 777-300ERs or A350-1000s to be much easier.

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 45):
South African

They are focusing on smaller aircraft to replace their A340-600s, and just ordered a few A330-300s. They found 747-400s too big.
 
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tb727
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:36 pm

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 39):

I personally find it intriguing that Kalitta Air recently completed construction on a 747-8-spec hangar at their maintenance facility at OSC.

Yeah, they like to work on everything. A new one is going up to hold C-5's last time I was up there.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 42):
Didn't Kalitta buy a whitetail 744F in the past couple of years?

Yep, first time they ever got something that wasn't ancient. The old man has been interested more in 777's from what I have heard. If the price is right though.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
b747400erf
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RE: Volga-Dnepr Order For 20 747-8s

Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:36 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 46):
Because they seem to fly used Classic 747s and obsolete A300s instead of flying current generation aircraft.

That is not a choice for them to make.

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