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OOer
Posts: 995
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:10 pm

RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:31 pm

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 44):

Quoting OOer (Reply 15):

Do you have a link to the web site pls?
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/10/25-global-aviation

Quoting dabpit (Reply 42):
Is it possible for the 752 to do MCO-GIG?

MCO-GIG = 4,342 miles

DL's longest 752 route = JFK-PSA at 4,131 (and it generally takes off at pretty close to MTOW)

Is MCO-GIG possible on a 752? Probably. But why would DL put a 752 on it? The market is there and you could fill up a 777 if you wanted. If DL adds MCO-GIG it will be with a 763 or larger equipment.
 
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dabpit
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:55 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 49):
Absolutely didn't mean it like that. SDU is 100% domestic with INTL customs so that's completely moot.

Sounds like LGA then (exception is pre-cleared airports in Canada).

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 49):
Logic dictates that the UA/AD relationship should mean that UA do more at MCO, but given the B6 hub, a rather large WN operation, and a small but brewing DL focus city (not to mention the ULCC galore over at SFB), the opportunity window for UA seems limited.

There is always the small possibility of a relationship between B6 and AD
Carpe Diem
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Fri Jun 19, 2015 8:03 pm

Quoting dabpit (Reply 51):
There is always the small possibility of a relationship between B6 and AD

That's what everyone thought given their history through a common guy. So it was rather surprising AD opted to code-share with UA over B6 despite their current and future routes all being B6 hubs (FLL, MCO, JFK)

Rumors are that Star is actively courting Azul to backfill TAM. It would be interesting to see if they succeed. With JJ in oneworld and G3 being partially owned by DL, Star seems to be the only logical place (unless they wanna go nuts and join the Etihad Partners thing)
 
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dabpit
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Fri Jun 19, 2015 8:18 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 52):
That's what everyone thought given their history through a common guy. So it was rather surprising AD opted to code-share with UA over B6 despite their current and future routes all being B6 hubs (FLL, MCO, JFK)

If they do decide to partner up with B6 it will happen but not surprised it hasn't happened yet.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 52):
Rumors are that Star is actively courting Azul to backfill TAM. It would be interesting to see if they succeed. With JJ in oneworld and G3 being partially owned by DL, Star seems to be the only logical place (unless they wanna go nuts and join the Etihad Partners thing)

Or they could do like Jetblue is doing and be partners with who they please across alliances.
Carpe Diem
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting AF086 (Reply 37):

Rumor has it that DL will downscale BSB-ATL to 3x weekly.

That's no rumour. It's been scheduled for months.

Quoting dabpit (Reply 42):
Is it possible for the 752 to do MCO-GIG?

It depends on what you are willing to leave on the ground.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Sat Jun 20, 2015 1:16 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 41):
This felt a lot like how the DL RDU experiment of the mid-2000s started in the beginning. Now RDU only has year-round mainline service to 3 DL hubs.

You present that as if DL might be less than successful at RDU. Today's schedule sees 63 DL & DL Connection flights to 15 destination airports (including many hubs of competitors). 51 of those (81%) are aboard 2-class aircraft, and mainline sees a pretty full roster of DL narrowbody types: 319, 320, MD-88, MD-90, 738 and 757. Point to the AA or UA focus city with that flight count, destination diversity, and 2-class fraction. Dozens of U.S. airports can only dream of DL's RDU service levels.
 
incitatus
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:01 pm

MCO-BSB can probably pay for itself in high season. But once Brazilian children and teenagers are in school, there is no way this flight will see healthy traffic. Much less, healthy revenue.

The actions of DL in Brazil are starting to remind me of the time it served NE Brazil and Manaus. It tried pretty much every possible pattern/frequency to make it work.

DL serving MCO Brazil is a waste of time and resources - nothing but a distraction. DL should be focused on business travelers and NY traffic. Brazil-MCO for DL with Azul and TAM flooding the market is just dumb!
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
rg787
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 56):
DL serving MCO Brazil is a waste of time and resources - nothing but a distraction. DL should be focused on business travelers and NY traffic. Brazil-MCO for DL with Azul and TAM flooding the market is just dumb!

So you are saying that 3 companies with a lot more resource than you should just stop whatever they are doing and listen to someone in an aviation forum because he knows better? Please.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 55):

AA at BOS is far larger than that despite not even officially labeled as a focus city

So the new convention is to use "2-class" as an equivalent to mainline ?
 
tjh8402
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:32 am

Despite Orlando being a leisure destination, the Brazilians that come here are oftentimes from the countries upper classes and are big spenders. Perhaps they are willing to pay premiums for non stops and to help fill those seats in the front of the plane. Will this 752 have domestic first class or will it be an international bird with LF BE seats?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busin...ilian-tourists-20150116-story.html

"As recently as a decade ago, Brazilian tourists topped out at about 100,000 people coming to Central Florida annually. In 2013, that figure skyrocketed to close to 770,000 tourists annually, according to Visit Orlando figures. Brazil ranks No. 1 among overseas visitors, edging out the United Kingdom, and is second only to Canada among all foreign countries, according to Visit Orlando...
...Martins said some Brazilians opt to make multiple trips a year simply because they can afford it. The country's upper class is very rich...Repeat customers are likely the same people snapping up real estate in Central Florida, he said. In some regions of Brazil a modest two-bedroom home could cost the same as a $1 million home here, Martins said. Brazilians account for 12 percent of the major international homebuyers in the Orlando and Kissimmee market last year, according to a report by Florida Realtors.

Martins said he also sees a lot of middle-class customers, but they still spend $300 to $400 each visit at his store."
 
9w748capt
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:09 pm

Interesting thread indeed - wife and I just got back from a week in Brazil, in part fueled by the insanely cheap fares on offer to GRU. Certainly didn't look like a place going through too horrible a recession - flights were full everywhere, even the domestic ones, and fares weren't cheap. Good to see the Brazilians are still traveling strong - great people overall.
 
incitatus
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:17 pm

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 60):
Certainly didn't look like a place going through too horrible a recession

The Brazilian economy is very big and Brazil still has severe infrastructure limitations. So, yes, the place will look busy regardless. Brazilians' expenditure abroad is tracked on a monthly basis and the just-released figure is at a 5-year low. That is more proof of a big recession.

Quoting rg787 (Reply 57):
So you are saying that 3 companies with a lot more resource than you should just stop whatever they are doing and listen to someone in an aviation forum because he knows better? Please.

It is perfectly acceptable to criticize business decisions of large airlines. They make mistakes quite often. No, I don't expect Delta to listen, and I hope they don't - it is entertaining to see how hard they try in Brazil. BSB-MCO is a result of close cooperation with GOL. Still, wrong aircraft and wrong costs. Brazil-MCO in the context of their alliance will not work well with DL metal.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:28 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 61):
It is perfectly acceptable to criticize business decisions of large airlines. They make mistakes quite often. No, I don't expect Delta to listen, and I hope they don't - it is entertaining to see how hard they try in Brazil. BSB-MCO is a result of close cooperation with GOL. Still, wrong aircraft and wrong costs. Brazil-MCO in the context of their alliance will not work well with DL metal.

Neither does it work on Gol's 737. The hub in the Dominican Republic is not sustainable. The most recent proof is the shift from SDQ to PUJ.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:42 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 62):

Neither does it work on Gol's 737. The hub in the Dominican Republic is not sustainable. The most recent proof is the shift from SDQ to PUJ.

That's just shuffling the deck chairs. A scissor hub is painfully uncompetitive when everyone else flies nonstop.
 
AF086
Topic Author
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:20 pm

The brazilian trade press is saying that the new MCO-BSB service will replace the current ATL-BSB service:

(In Portuguese)
http://www.panrotas.com.br/noticia-t...-operacoes-de-brasilia_115721.html

http://mercadoeeventos.com.br/site/n...ireto-entre-brasilia-e-orlando-eua
Please insert a "smart" joke here.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting AF086 (Reply 64):
The brazilian trade press is saying that the new MCO-BSB service will replace the current ATL-BSB service:

Other than 1x daily ATL-GRU, my guess is the entire ATL-Brazil network will be moved south to MCO.

Within 3 months I expect we'll hear ATL-GIG going to MCO-GIG.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
Other than 1x daily ATL-GRU, my guess is the entire ATL-Brazil network will be moved south to MCO.

Within 3 months I expect we'll hear ATL-GIG going to MCO-GIG.

I doubt it. Even with the softening of Brazil's economy, I suspect ATL is sufficiently large and powerful a hub to sustain a flight to GIG going forward.

Could we possibly see BSB shift entirely to MCO? Maybe. It is true that MCO plus the cities that can connect through it likely cover the vast majority of U.S.-BSB O&D. Although, even with that, I still contend Delta may want to keep BSB (and certainly GIG) plugged into the ATL hub at least on alternating days with the MCO flight - like they apparently look to have BSB scheduled now.

In addition, Delta going "all in" on MCO with respect to non-GRU Brazil also strikes me as fairly risky given the lower-yielding component of the MCO market, and the fact that, somewhat as a result, the MCO-Brazil market is (a) heavily Brazil-originating, and therefore (b) naturally advantaged towards Brazilian carriers which are (c) pouring tons of capacity in there and (d) making the market quite competitive.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 998
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
Within 3 months I expect we'll hear ATL-GIG going to MCO-GIG.

That would surprise me. ATL-GIG has been around for quite a while. All the new MCO flying seems to be funded by cutting more recent additions. Also don't forget GIG will see the A333 later this year.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:10 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 66):
I still contend Delta may want to keep BSB (and certainly GIG) plugged into the ATL hub at least on alternating days with the MCO flight - like they apparently look to have BSB scheduled now.

The original ATL-BSB is just 4x weekly for northern summer and 3x weekly for northern winter .... once you start moving some of that to MCO, the weekly frequency at ATL will be so low it really diminishes any attractiveness to being "plugged to ATL hub" at that point.

Quoting commavia (Reply 66):
, the MCO-Brazil market is (a) heavily Brazil-originating, and therefore (b) naturally advantaged towards Brazilian carriers which are (c) pouring tons of capacity in there and (d) making the market quite competitive.

You just listed every single reason why DL should NOT run MCO-BSB at all, which is contrary to what DL route planning thinks.

Worst case scenario - if all these routes flop, DL can always move them back to ATL.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3381
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:39 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 65):
Within 3 months I expect we'll hear ATL-GIG going to MCO-GIG.

That sounded like a good joke. My gut feel about bottoms in the premium seats GIG-ATL tells me DL is not going to do that. Coke won't be the same if GIG-ATL is gone. Also GIG has a lot less service than GRU and GIG-ATL fills a competitive role that MCO cannot replace.

I am a bit shocked by the news MCO-BSB is to replace ATL-BSB. Hard to believe.

[Edited 2015-06-23 14:40:44]
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Rafabozzolla
Posts: 988
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RE: DL Files For MCO-BSB

Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:32 am

It actually makes sort of sense with the appreciation of the USD as Orlando is a cheaper destination than Miami. Esp

Quoting incitatus (Reply 69):
GIG-ATL fills a competitive role that MCO cannot replace.

I agree.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 69):
I am a bit shocked by the news MCO-BSB is to replace ATL-BSB. Hard to believe.

Not really. Unlike Rio, which has international appeal, so the DL flight from ATL makes sense, BSB is motlty Brazilian originating. So AA to MIA covers all the relevant markets, so DL is left with backtracking pax through ATL to FL (MCO and MIA). Since there is already a non-stop MIA flight, DL has chosen the second best thing.

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