fun2fly
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:31 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 199):


I'm still waiting for WN to do a "modest" expansion at CLE of an additional 4 or 5 daily departures. I think 2x daily DEN might be next now that F9 is drawing down there. And then there's Texas. It's surprising that WN hasn't yet linked CLE with one of their focus cities there considering how strong WN is in that state.

With all the advertising for international destinations by WN dung NFL games plus UA's drawdown on the IAH route, HOU seems to be a no brainier
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:25 pm

The other thing to add to the HOU discussion is that UA has drawn down it's seats from CLE to Houston (moreso than the other UA hubs), only one mainline a day and sometimes none. PIT has more seats now to IAH than CLE does, I know some people may say that's all about fracking in PA, but I think it's all about WN fare stimulation.
 
rtalk25
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:02 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 199):
I do wonder if RDU, ATL, and SEA come back next year?

CLE/CAK-ATL has a lot of low fare competition currently, yet but it's not a huge leisure market. Unless WN and NK pull out, which one might be possible, but likely not both of them, I doubt F9 adds it back. Over at RDU, F9 has no service at all this Winter to early Spring. Whatever market it established over there, it de-established it by not having any service for part of the year, and it likely has to rely more (and probably too much) on the other market point of sale.

I think CLE-SEA likely has the best shot of those three. I also think CLE-IAD would make sense if CAK-DCA is no longer a low fare market, and CLE-TTN daily with CLE-PHL/EWR not having low fares on nonstops generally. UA sometimes has $168 r/t specials to/from LGA, EWR, DCA and IAD over weekends but they require a Mon or Tues return.

Although unlikely, it would be interesting if F9 moved back to CAK while WN consolidated at CLE. A high profile long route like SEA would probably be too thin from CAK, but CAK-DEN might be able to be offered year-round again with no direct competitor. A 230 seat CAK-MCO might also be too much but F9 could change that aircraft to another market.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:45 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 199):
With Frontier's business model evolving more towards high volume leisure routes, the odds of them adding something like Kansas City or even New Orleans seem slim.

IMO, Frontier's owners are not doing any long term planning. They are goosing the numbers without regard to market presence in order to support an IPO in the near future. They want to sell before any system maturation, traffic decline, or oil price rise trims their margins. The only question in my mind is: will they sell some shares or all of them? Post-IPO, the management may take a different approach. From a CLE point of view, F9 is a wait-and-see.

Southwest seems to be neatly arranging their PHX, LAS, and DEN flights to provide morning, noon, and evening departures for west coast connections. Adding HOU and/or DAL seems likely, letting them fill the reduced number of MDW flights with O&D instead of less profitable connections. Adding a flight or two to STL and MCI also seems very doable. Just looking at their 'hubs', they could easily double CLE service to around 30 flights a day. They have to do something with that new gate.
 
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Frontier14
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 203):
IMO, Frontier's owners are not doing any long term planning. They are goosing the numbers without regard to market presence in order to support an IPO in the near future. They want to sell before any system maturation, traffic decline, or oil price rise trims their margins. The only question in my mind is: will they sell some shares or all of them? Post-IPO, the management may take a different approach. From a CLE point of view, F9 is a wait-and-see.

I would tend to agree with your commentary. F9 has turned the corner from a money losing airline to a profitable airline under the ULCC mantra. It is making money because it no longer is relying on DEN being the sole source of income; and the new owners have $$$$ to expand and contract as the market place dictates. Prior to the Indigo ownership this was not possible due to lack of capital.

It is anyone's guess if the owners will retain some interest in an IPO'd Frontier. If they think there is still money to be made, they very well could.

Had not NK entered CLE, it is reasonable to assume F9 may have established more of a footprint there. There is competition between F9 and NK, probably a little bad blood too given Franke cashed out on NK and bought F9. Added to the equation is some expansion from SW that still prevails from their failed F9 take over a few years ago.

Frontier 14
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:28 pm

Carrier specific data was released today for July 2015 and F9 continued to have no problems filling seats in CLE. Domestically they had about a 93% load factor at CLE and carried over 41,000 enplaning passengers for the month (highest this year). Their domestic total at CLE for the past 12 months is now around 850,000 and if you count in their int'l routes they're probably not that far off from a million pax. I'm wondering what the peak is for F9 at CLE and if that's already happened this summer, or if next summer will feature a beefed up schedule.

It's amazing that as F9 changes their schedules and destination list from CLE seemingly every other month, the pax still keep coming.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:50 pm

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 204):
Had not NK entered CLE, it is reasonable to assume F9 may have established more of a footprint there.

I think that's what they started to do, flying several mainly business routes with their first schedule increases with the intention of becoming much bigger in CLE than a dozen or so flights; but then their target changed to vacation routes almost exclusively.

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 205):
It's amazing that as F9 changes their schedules and destination list from CLE seemingly every other month, the pax still keep coming.

F9 flies it and CLE fills it up - wherever it's going. The untapped market in the CLE cachement is plainly bigger than anyone thought. I'm sure United has no regrets about leaving, but with them went CLE's best hope of scheduled transoceanic flights. That's why I'm hopeful about Southwest bulking up; they will eventually (in the next 5 years) go TATL and they may be CLE's next best hope.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:41 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 206):
F9 flies it and CLE fills it up - wherever it's going. The untapped market in the CLE cachement is plainly bigger than anyone thought. I'm sure United has no regrets about leaving, but with them went CLE's best hope of scheduled transoceanic flights. That's why I'm hopeful about Southwest bulking up; they will eventually (in the next 5 years) go TATL and they may be CLE's next best hope.

WN has their next schedule extension near the end of the month that includes early summer 2016 flying. If they're going to beef up CLE service, this would be the extension to do it.

With the success that B6, F9, and NK have had filling planes in CLE, WN shouldn't have a problem either. And at CLE there's certainly opportunity to add monopoly routes to WN focus cities with decent O&D for a 1x daily such as SAT, MCI, AUS, MSY, and SAN. While I don't think WN could launch all of those at once, I think any 2 from that list would do quite well. Then of course there's DAL, HOU, and STL which aren't monopoly markets, but WN certainly has an advantage in STL and UA's drawdown of CLE-IAH certainly helps HOU's prospects. It is interesting that WN chose to move only DEN from CAK to CLE. I think it shows that WN is more focused on connecting CAK and CLE to their more established markets which aren't in the Northeast. If I had to guess the order of next WN markets from CLE it would be MCI, HOU, STL, and MSY.

And as for CLE regaining a TATL flight, the options do seem limited. There seemed to be some targeting of LH for FRA service, but does LH have the right aircraft to serve smaller demand from CLE? Realistically, CLE needs to start small with 757 service. Icelandair might be CLE's best short term bet if they'd be willing to try CLE out for a summer seasonal at 3-4x weekly.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 207):
And as for CLE regaining a TATL flight, the options do seem limited. There seemed to be some targeting of LH for FRA service, but does LH have the right aircraft to serve smaller demand from CLE? Realistically, CLE needs to start small with 757 service. Icelandair might be CLE's best short term bet if they'd be willing to try CLE out for a summer seasonal at 3-4x weekly.

With the Cleveland Clinic opening another overseas branch (in London this time), prospects may improve; however, TATL doesn't seem to be on the to-do list of the present airport administration. Otherwise they'd do something about the FIS facility, a real need, before they work on cosmetics.

The latest caper is an RFQ for a "green roof design" consultant.
 
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mariner
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 16, 2015 8:16 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 206):
I think that's what they started to do, flying several mainly business routes with their first schedule increases with the intention of becoming much bigger in CLE than a dozen or so flights; but then their target changed to vacation routes almost exclusively.

Looking at it from the perspective of the airline rather than the airport, I don't think it was ever Indigo's intention to be business oriented, at CLE or anywhere - and still is not. There are two dominating concepts, both of intense seasonality:

(i) Fly where people want to go, but only when they want to go there.

(ii) East-west sucks in winter, north-south is the money pit. In summer this changes.

So the returning DEN-PHL and the new DEN-CLT aren't starting until the worst of winter is over. Shurz has said that when they flew DEN-PHL last time, it was gangbusters in summer, miserable in winter.

It's complicated by the fleet situation, Indigo is using the winter to rebalance the structure of the fleet. While Frontier has aircraft coming in - the A321's and a couple of A320's - that doesn't yet represent fleet growth because a number of A319's are going back to the lessors. Fleet growth should start to happen in about six months.

With a tight fleet, DTW-MCO - as one example - may be more a valuable (this winter) use of aircraft than CLE-ATL, especially now that they have a crew base at MCO, because they still haven't reached the goal of a sub-6 cent CASM.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 206):
F9 flies it and CLE fills it up - wherever it's going.

They had a party - with cake. LOL

http://www.cleveland.com/travel/inde...ntier_airlines_celebrates_c.html" target="_blank">http://www.cleveland.com/travel/inde...rontier_airlines_celebrates_c.html

"Frontier Airlines celebrates Cleveland milestone with cake – and free flights for one lucky traveler"

It's a similar situation at TTN:

http://www.towntopics.com/wordpress/...enger-surge-for-frontier-airlines/

"Trenton-Mercer Airport Sees Passenger Surge For Frontier Airlines"

And TTN is going all snowbird this winter - TTN-Florida.

mariner

[Edited 2015-10-16 13:48:39]
aeternum nauta
 
rtalk25
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:05 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 209):
(i) Fly where people want to go, but only when they want to go there.

(ii) East-west sucks in winter, north-south is the money pit. In summer this changes.

From my observation of F9's winter schedule, It still seems that F9 operates much the same year round: DEN a hub albeit smaller than years ago, but with east-west still present year-round from the Midwest to West with DEN providing connections; north point to Florida still dominant year round from it's eastern stations (PHL, TTN and CLE), just more peaked out in the Winter. The new MCO routes to DTW, etc. one would think are permanent.

The seasonal RSW and PBI flying, while getting attention, must make a small percentage of it's overall network this winter? I guess I was surprised not that F9 dropped CLE-ATL but maybe that it didn't add something like CLE-PBI to atleast provide a So. Florida seasonal flight this winter, assuming F9 is strong in the CLE-Florida sector and wants to keep it's position while not totally conceding it over time to NK and B6.

[Edited 2015-10-16 20:14:03]
 
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mariner
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:55 am

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 210):
From my observation of F9's winter schedule, It still seems that F9 operates much the same year round: DEN a hub albeit smaller than years ago, but with east-west still present year-round from the Midwest to West with DEN providing connections;

Like any rule it's a generalisation (not every north/south route works) and there are always exceptions - ORD-SLC e.g. - but a glance at "old" Frontier's 1Q earnings over the past twelve years gives a clue. 1Q was always financially bleak until Siegel broke the east-west nexus.

As Siegel said, the problem for Frontier (financially) is that it did not participate in the north-south winter traffic, because of the attachment to DEN.

Now a lot of that has changed. DEN-LGA does not operate in deep winter winter, nor DEN-DTW, and, this year, DEN-CLE. DEN-DCA survives, but that's a market with restrained competition. DEN-RDU was designed as a seasonal (summer) market, in the same way that TYS and GSO were summer seasonal.

There is, of course, some traffic - old Frontier didn't completely die in winter - but much of it is connections and DEN-IND is down to 1 x daily. BIS, BZN and MSO don't make it through this winter, even with potential connections at DEN.

On the other hand, ORD-SFO, which was announced as seasonal, is staying through.

mariner
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rtalk25
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:16 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 209):
especially now that they have a crew base at MCO,
Quoting mariner (Reply 211):
On the other hand, ORD-SFO, which was announced as seasonal, is staying through.

The crew base positioning might be helping favorability of F9 being on some routes over others. In the case of CLE, since F9 isn't keeping one there right?, I do wonder if CLE-SEA and other routes that were once attempted at CLE have a slim shot of returning back online.

CLE and PHL/TTN are actually very small spokes this winter, but at the time that UA dehubbed, F9 had more build up interest in CLE. I do think that momentum declined, when it got a unneeded interest in IAD that eventually flopped. With IAD-ATL ending this March, it's almost ruled out of IAD-CLE returning (even though the low fare market from competitors might not exist once WN's CAK-DCA ends).

But the CLE build up from the time UA dehubbed to the various focus cities was much last year related or over, from now and going forward.

I analyzed that 50% of it's flying this winter is DEN, the next larger groups being LAS and MCO which aren't seasonally offered as F9 offers these year round. Of course, anything could change, but given the new direction, it appears that DEN is still very important, and LAS and MCO, followed maybe next by a set of seasonal routes not through DEN, and maybe ORD specific routes.

Routes like DFW-MCO, MSP-MCO, and SEA-LAS might have a better shot of starting than the special routes* (routes not offered by other carriers) like SEA-CLE returning.

[Edited 2015-10-17 11:26:46]
 
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mariner
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 17, 2015 8:41 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 212):
The crew base positioning might be helping favorability of F9 being on some routes over others. In the case of CLE, since F9 isn't keeping one there right?, I do wonder if CLE-SEA and other routes that were once attempted at CLE have a slim shot of returning back online.

Whatever anyone hoped, it was always unlikely that CLE would become a full crew base because of the winter weather. Snowstorms at DEN can bring the airline to its knees and the same would be true of CLE, whereas MCO is close to weatherproof.

Since this is a thread about CLE - not Frontier - I'll try and limit my observations to CLE, and say that it was a considerable gamble by Frontier. All of the airline's previous attempts at a focus city outside DEN had not worked (with the possible and unlikely exception of the disregarded TTN).

CLE was unexpected, both to observers and to Frontier - the airline had to scramble and rearrange other schedules to find aircraft for it - and at the time, I don't think anyone had any idea of just how extensive the changes at this new Frontier would be. As we have now found out, it wasn't going to be just DEN and CLE, although anyone could be forgiven for thinking - originally - that it would be that.

It was also a gamble because no one could guess how passengers would react to the concept of ULCC. To a real extent, CLE was a test of that reaction.

The sometimes forgotten link in all this may be Bill Franke, who is bringing all his formidable airline experience to the equation, including his experience at Spirit. I don't think Frontier will be just a duplication of Spirit, but that he will take on board stuff he learned there, the good and the bad.

I can't predict the future, so I don't even try. I find it especially difficult this winter because of the fleet situation, and the fairly dramatic shift to larger aircraft. Originally the plan was that 12 x A319's would be leaving the fleet in 1Q/2016 - Franke's pursuit of lower CASM - which would mean considerable reductions in service across the board because new aircraft aren't coming in at the same pace. I believe that number has reduced slightly, because of the deal with GECAS, but even so, I don't take the present winter schedule as representative, of now or of future winters, at CLE or anywhere.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 206):
F9 flies it and CLE fills it up - wherever it's going.

So CLE becomes one of the first cities to get the new A321 - to MCO - in spite of the competition from Spirit and others.

mariner
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 207):
WN has their next schedule extension near the end of the month that includes early summer 2016 flying. If they're going to beef up CLE service, this would be the extension to do it.

I've been thinking about this and maybe you're one schedule extension premature. It might make better sense to wait until the lobby/baggage/TSA reconstruction project is finished in mid-May; but let's allow a little slippage and say early June. WN's next extension (after the Oct 27th one) will include flights after June 3rd. That may be the extension with good news - assuming there is any. Still, it definitely seems WN is up to something.

UA's weekend update schedule actually adds a couple of flights in November.  Wow!
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:43 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 214):
I've been thinking about this and maybe you're one schedule extension premature. It might make better sense to wait until the lobby/baggage/TSA reconstruction project is finished in mid-May; but let's allow a little slippage and say early June. WN's next extension (after the Oct 27th one) will include flights after June 3rd. That may be the extension with good news - assuming there is any. Still, it definitely seems WN is up to something.


You might be right. I didn't realize the next schedule extension only went through a couple days in June. That gives WN two extensions to launch new routes for summer 2016. Before Ricky Smith left he mentioned that he expected MCI to be launched. And with WN getting another gate at CLE, signs point to WN doing "something" at CLE. But the real question is, what is something? Most of the WN cuts at CAK take place next week, so even if CLE were to get another 3 daily departures launched next summer, the regional net gain for WN is zero.
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:54 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown:
UA's weekend update schedule actually adds a couple of flights in November.

New routes or just additional frequencies?
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:18 am

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 216):
New routes or just additional frequencies?

No surprises. Two additional, previously announced flights (FLL and RSW, commencing Oct 24th) are net increases - there is no compensating cut in east-west flying as I suspected might happen.
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:19 pm

I have to admit, I really thought there would be a continuing trickle of cuts by UA, in much the same way that MEM and CVG have had a drip, drip, drip of flight cuts by Delta. The only cuts in UA seating I've observed lately, they seem to have drawn down the IAH capacity. Other than that it's been holding steady. I'm really surprised they still choose to compete to Vegas and Orlando. I thought they might have cut STL and MKE by now but must be corporate contracts that keep those going.
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:25 pm

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 218):
MKE by now but must be corporate contracts that keep those going.

I know Rockwell is a pillar on this route.
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:28 pm

^how do corporate contracts work---does a company guarantee an airline with a minimum number of pax per year in return for a good fares?
 
cle757
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:17 pm

I keep hearing rumors UA may add CLE-PHX and SAN for the holidays/winter schedule but I haven't see anything yet.
Cleveland the best location in the Nation
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:15 pm

I'm sure Rockwell does fly a lot on CLE-MKE, but of the 150 seats per day each way, how many could they possibly take?

All over the place on this forum, people say there must be a market between ABC and DEF because of some company or another and I'm like really? I've worked in some large organizations, we weren't sending people here and there willy nilly. I just can't imagine airlines keep a route for a company or two.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:55 pm

After listening to the Southwest earnings conference call, I found a couple of reasons to be optimistic and one reason be be restrained in expectations for WN at CLE. On the plus side, WN reps said they are making large investments in infrastructure (airports and IT support) in 2016 and they will deploy about 4% capacity growth in the first half of the year. Of the 4% about half will go to DAL, LGA, and DCA and half to "regional growth" with perhaps only one new service point and that will be international. This all suggests some sort of CLE increase.

The comment arguing against CLE was that they will apply capacity increases where they see load factor increases. CLE loads have been slightly below system average loads for most of 2015.

It's a coin toss.
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:11 pm

BKL-Cincinnati started today with its inaugural flight. Looks like it departed and arrived 20-30 minutes late--but that's probably normal for a first-ever flight for an airline at a new station.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/U...1/history/20151026/1200Z/KBKL/KLUK
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:31 am

An interesting insight: according to the Cincy newspaper Ultimate originally had other plans. "Ultimate Air Shuttle's decision to commit an aircraft to the Cleveland route means the company no longer is planning to start nonstop flights to Memphis from Cincinnati, Pawlak said. Company officials previously told The Enquirer they were looking to expand service to Memphis."

Pawlak also speculates about flights to Chicago Executive, about 6-7 miles from O'Hare.

Full article: http://www.cincinnati.com/story/mone...eland-cincinnati-flights/71910904/
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:02 am

Just browsing a random day in early June for Southwest's new schedule. Doesn't appear to show anything new.

5x MDW
3x BNA
3x BWI
1x DEN
1x LAS
1x PHX

Over at CAK, I only see 3x daily ATL and nothing else. Ouch.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 226):
Just browsing a random day in early June for Southwest's new schedule. Doesn't appear to show anything new.

This is Southwest's first schedule change using new yield and revenue management software. There are cries of dismay in the WN schedule thread. "What are they doing??"

The CEO made a point during the CC that they have 85 lower-48 US destinations and there are not many places he wants to add - that 2016 would be a "connect the dots" year. He talked about adding capacity at LGA, DCA, and DAL but the only way to do that is by using more 738's; they can't add departures. Still, this schedule doesn't seem to do much new connecting. I wonder if traffic forecasts are gloomier than the airlines are admitting to the public.

CAK may be doomed. Three dailies is *not* the WN model for station operation.  
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:33 pm

UA dumps CLE and now WN dumps CAK. No surprise that CAK's success was partly because of the UA/CO stronghold at CLE and now that is gone and CAK is feeling the same pain after the dehub.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts CLE's pax counts next year and what backfill the legacies will add at CAK?
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:12 pm

CAK's really invested a lot of money in improving the terminal, parking, and roadways, it really was a much more pleasant flying experience than CLE in recent years. It's a damn shame and really too bad that WN isn't adding capacity to CLE to counter the slashing in CAK. As I keep saying, WN has about half the number of flights in CLE than they did a year or two after they opened the station. I wish I understood why CLE was different than STL or BNA, or for that matter even PIT or RDU, other abandoned hubs that got more luv from WN than CLE.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:04 pm

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 229):
It's a damn shame and really too bad that WN isn't adding capacity to CLE to counter the slashing in CAK.

Be patient, that's my theory. WN works slowly and deliberately. It makes sense that they would delay any plus ups in CLE until the terminal/TSA/baggage renovations are finished.

If CLE does eventually see some gains, I'm sorry that it might be at CAK's expense. I hoped low fares would raise everybody's numbers. Maybe Allegiant's entry into the CAK market (and not ULCCs in CLE) tipped the balance for WN.
 
dc10lover
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:07 am

" I wonder if traffic forecasts are gloomier than the airlines are admitting to the public"

Interesting point. Airlines do keep track of advance sales / ticket sales. Have they fallen off?
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:09 am

As someone who loves CAK and uses it frequently it is a shame how WN pulled down FL's once great operation. The airport is much more convenient for people in the Canton/Massillon/Alliance region than Cleveland. Overall though I think the airport will survive, most of WN's flying is to vacation routes which will be filled by Allegiant I believe. Any corporate travel now has plenty of options with DL/AA/UA, especially with the adds by UA and AA. I wish they would move DL ops to the nicer upper terminal, but since the Detroit flight is still operated by regional equipment I don't see that happening. Can the upper terminal jet bridges go low enough to hook up to CRJ 200's? Anyone know? Time has shown that the CAK management team is smart, so here's to hoping they have some tricks up their sleeve for the future we don't know about!

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Wed Oct 28, 2015 5:21 pm

Nice write-up of the new BKL-LUK service by Ultimate.

http://www.cleveland.com/travel/inde...ngs_fun_back_t.html#incart_m-rpt-1

Most interesting: "Gordon said Ultimate's interest in Cleveland was independent of United's downsizing here, though the dehubbing has created service voids that Ultimate hopes to fill. ... Among the possibilities: Chicago, New York, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis and Albany. Look for expansion cities as soon as next spring, according to several officials."

Ultimate's version of NYC, however, is called Morristown, NJ.   Still, MMU is as convenient to many NJ travelers as EWR. I'd like to see Richmond added to their list.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:16 am

I wonder if Southwest's cuts at CAK imply a general glut of low cost seats in the market? A good way to drive up ticket prices, which have dropped a lot at CLE and have been rock bottom at CAK for a decade, is to slash seats. Airport wide load factors for CAK haven't been that great the past two years, and at CLE only a couple points higher. With the influx of ULCC at CLE, it would seem something would have to eventually give in the market. Low fares combined with low load factors is not something airlines strive for. It is interesting that WN for the most part kept their CLE destinations distinct from their CAK destinations. The only overlaps, MDW and LAS, appeared to have failed pretty quickly. Perhaps the overlap between CLE and CAK's catchment area is stronger than some thought. WN might be trying to see how much traffic the cut CAK flights generate at CLE, if any, before adding anything new.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:35 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 234):
I wonder if Southwest's cuts at CAK imply a general glut of low cost seats in the market?

June and July numbers say that Southwest underperformed slightly in CAK (airport had a slightly over 81% l/f, while WN's at CAK was 80.8) and CLE (airport 84.7% l/f while WN at CLE was 83.5). Both airports underperformed WN's system l/f of 87%. CLE by a little; CAK by a lot.

WN has 15 net additional aircraft arriving in the next six months. If they can't find someplace to put them, they will need to accelerate retirements of 733/735s. They can't put them at LGA, DCA, or DAL; there are no slots at the first two or gates at DAL. MDW is just about maxed out. Therefore those planes are currently headed for smaller airports.

It seems reasonable they could put more of their NEO eggs in the CLE basket and fight a little harder for the market. They are making modest additions to their schedule at PIT (airport l/f 81%, WN l/f 80%); tacking on some flights at CLE fits that pattern.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:16 pm

Well, it looks like American is ending CLE-PHX on April 4th next spring. I'm not sure if this is a seasonal drop, but it's not bookable afterwards. This flight started about a year ago.

That will leave WN with a single daily on the route. There were about 3x daily on this route earlier in the year when F9 also served this for about 10 months, alongside AA and WN.
 
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Frontier14
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 236):
Well, it looks like American is ending CLE-PHX on April 4th next spring. I'm not sure if this is a seasonal drop, but it's not bookable afterwards. This flight started about a year ago.

That will leave WN with a single daily on the route. There were about 3x daily on this route earlier in the year when F9 also served this for about 10 months, alongside AA and WN.

Suspect the demand into PHX drops after the end of the spring baseball training season and the summer heat that comes in May.

Frontier 14
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 236):
Well, it looks like American is ending CLE-PHX on April 4th next spring.

They've made some other cuts here and there and some equipment downgrades. I bet they decided to retire MD-80s a little faster than previously planned. Maybe Frontier will hop back in the market.

[Edited 2015-11-01 09:58:27]
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:17 pm

AA cutting PHX is a bit of a head scratcher to me, it must have been a real dog for them to cut it so quickly. The head scratcher is that CMH and PIT retain 2X daily service on AA even though those markets also have a single daily on WN.

Maybe just maybe CLE has more flyers loyal to United, who are not so excited about connecting over the PHX hub if UA is a choice.
 
cle757
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:17 am

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 239):
Maybe just maybe CLE has more flyers loyal to United, who are not so excited about connecting over the PHX hub if UA is a choice.

Its been rumored that UA maybe bringing back PHX-CLE
Cleveland the best location in the Nation
 
joeman
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:18 am

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 236):
Well, it looks like American is ending CLE-PHX
Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 237):
Suspect the demand into PHX drops after the end of the spring baseball training season and the summer heat that comes in May.
Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 238):
I bet they decided to retire MD-80s a little faster than previously planned.
Quoting ncflyer (Reply 239):
Maybe just maybe CLE has more flyers loyal to United

With WN's substantial cuts at CAK, we can't blame the "CAK effect" any more. Unfortunately, but thru no fault of posters, this thread seems to spend more time lamenting and excusing reductions rather than celebrating net additions.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:45 am

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 237):
Suspect the demand into PHX drops after the end of the spring baseball training season and the summer heat that comes in May.

Interesting turn, still remember the days where HP had 2x daily, CO had 2-3x daily (depending on season) & WN had 2 daily. It strange that the demand profile can change that drastically.
1.4mm and counting...
 
PITrules
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:03 pm

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 239):
AA cutting PHX is a bit of a head scratcher to me, it must have been a real dog for them to cut it so quickly. The head scratcher is that CMH and PIT retain 2X daily service on AA even though those markets also have a single daily on WN.

PHX offers excellent connections to LAS and California. Compared to CMH and PIT, CLE already has excellent service nonstop to those markets. Considering the minimal nonstop options to the west coast and LAS from CMH and especially PIT, I can see why they would have decent service to PHX.

If something is to be inferred from AA dropping CLE-PHX, it might be the importance (or lack thereof) of the PHX hub in the carrier's network in the future as opposed to weakness in the Cleveland market.
FLYi
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 243):
PHX offers excellent connections to LAS and California. Compared to CMH and PIT, CLE already has excellent service nonstop to those markets.

CLE lacks n/s service to SAN (over 200 pax/day), SNA (over 100), and SMF (about 100). Combine these three large points with TUS, PSP, SJC, and OAK, and I'd think there was enough traffic to support both PHX flights.

Cramming those pax through ORD is hard, especially in winter weather. UA and AA like to pretend ORD is a great hub; and everyone agrees except the pax.
 
joeman
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:15 pm

In my opinion there is an over reliance on funneling our “2nd tier” noncoastal city traffic thru overcrowded hubs sold thru the 1) brainwash of a demand for high frequency and 2) multiple destination availability. The second reason is plausible for me. It’s these very 2nd tier cities that probably occupy the majority of the non-local seats on any U.S. hub departure.

We wonder why coastal cities such as BDL and PVD get TATL before the likes of CLE or STL. Stagnant economies per non-local a.netter experts, but somebody has to feed all those multiple hub originating flights even if diluted amongst so many for now.

I avoid ORD at all cost. Last experience was non-eventful going to LAS although uncomfortably crowded for me and long walking. The return was miserable. 3 gate changes from one end of the UA complex to the other and then back during a 4 hour+ delay for we don’t know. The staff was very excellent though. So I liken the ORD experience, maybe any superhub to a cheapskate friend. You routinely expect the worse or nothing at all, but when they come thru with normal behavior, it’s like the second coming. lol
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:07 pm

An Alaska 739 is diverting to CLE now. Medical? Mx? Nice to see a stranger show up.
 
swacle
Posts: 492
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2003 1:41 pm

RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:13 pm

Has to be medical. No weather in the BWI area or enroute. Looks like she made a hard left just outside CMH....
Aircraft Flown: SF3 DH8 DH4 328 ERJ CRJ CR7 CR9 E70 E75 D9S M80 712 72S 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 752 318 319 32
 
coairman
Posts: 155
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:31 am

RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:15 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 226):
Just browsing a random day in early June for Southwest's new schedule. Doesn't appear to show anything new.

5x MDW
3x BNA
3x BWI
1x DEN
1x LAS
1x PHX

Over at CAK, I only see 3x daily ATL and nothing else. Ouch.


It's obvious WN is not to interested in CLE. They have been focusing on their merger and starting up the new HOU international service out of their brand new international terminal. They are chasing the $$$$ and it is obviously not in CLE, and as most of you know, higher profits tend to be affiated with international service. Actions speak louder than words...... I hope it changes for the better in CLE as far as WN service.
The views I express are of my own, and not the company I work for.
 
ASFlyer
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Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

RE: What's Going In CLE - Part 11

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:04 am

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 246):
An Alaska 739 is diverting to CLE now. Medical? Mx? Nice to see a stranger show up.

FA with a possible stroke.

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