ty97
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:19 pm

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 47):
TUL took cuts from ORD and DFW from AA

AA is currently 3xER4, 1xCR7, 1x738 on ORD-TUL. It appears to be moving to 2xCR7 and 1xS80, definitely not an insignificant decrease on number of seats on the route.

Right now, DFW-TUL is at 9x: 3xER4, 2xS80, 3x738, 1x757. Random date in January shows 3xCR7, 1x CR9, 1xS80, 3x738, 1x757. Pretty much a wash in number of seats.
 
rtalk25
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:49 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 19):
Then why even bother starting both daily routes (SAN-MCO in Jun 2014 & SAN-IAD in Nov 2014) if they're such 'likely losers'? And why are they even keeping them around for the rest of the year as Sat-only offerings?

I think it takes awhile for certain transcon routes to develop. Imagine a conversation: " you know there is a daily nonstop now between to Dulles on WN". Other person: "Really, let me see their website..nope I don't see it"

That said, I was surprised WN added IAD-SAN over IAD-PHX. The IAD station, at this point, is just there as a complementary station to DCA with some west bound services. I would have figured IAD-PHX could have more west connections.

For SAN based pax heading to WAS, WN might have figured later on that SAN-IAD might dilute SAN-BWI.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:09 pm

Quoting cosyr (Reply 49):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
UA IAD-BUF NOV 2>1.0
UA IAD-SAV NOV 3>2
UA IAD-SYR NOV 4>3

I'm used to seeing drops in flights in SYR, and lately, UA has had 2x daily SYR-IAD, but I had no idea they flew fewer flights to BUF which is a much larger market.

BUF is natural catchment for IAD. I get that it is slightly circuitous for Atlantic, but this is still another sign of IAD's questionable future if they can only run 1X on BUF in NOV. It's not quite like DL at JFK where they have frequency to LGA as well when they chop the Winter schedule.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 51):
I think it takes awhile for certain transcon routes to develop. Imagine a conversation: " you know there is a daily nonstop now between to Dulles on WN". Other person: "Really, let me see their website..nope I don't see it"

That said, I was surprised WN added IAD-SAN over IAD-PHX. The IAD station, at this point, is just there as a complementary station to DCA with some west bound services. I would have figured IAD-PHX could have more west connections.

I still don't think these cuts really mean much besides the capacity shaming. If the routes were truly awful they would just drop them. Additionally, WN routinely stays in routes with 40% LFs for months and months and sometimes never gives up, so it would be out of character for them to throw in the towel in this fashion. It's just the capacity shaming.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:28 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 42):
Quoting enilria (Reply 40):

Any CUN flight is easy to pull off so SEA-CUN isn't a game changer per se.

It's ridiculously long-haul, though, for a leisure market. Very hard to make money.

It's (1) winter seasonal, and (2) 1x weekly. Can't be that hard to not make money in this scenario.
 
rtalk25
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
Additionally, WN routinely stays in routes with 40% LFs for months and months and sometimes never gives up, so it would be out of character for them to throw in the towel in this fashion.

I agree that it is out of character for a route cut that wasn't given a full one year trial, and maybe it's because of capacity discipline and maybe it's Wall Street pressured.

It does take time for routes to mature, and WN has never been that much a proponent in it's model with transcons. WN's fares/routes still don't appear on third party sites (consumer and corporate bookings), so a low frequency, i.e. 1x daily, route likely even takes longer to develop with a customer base. But WN cuts this route relatively quickly.

Atleast with the BWI based transcons, it has a hub on that side to provide some southeast and northeast US cities connections. Hopefully BWI-OAK will stay, with OAK also providing connections to the Pac NW.

[Edited 2015-06-22 08:02:09]
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:13 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 54):
WN has never been that much a proponent in it's model with transcons.

Agreed

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 54):
WN's fares/routes still don't appear on third party sites (consumer and corporate bookings), so a low frequency, i.e. 1x daily, route likely even takes longer to develop with a customer base.

Although, they should have connecting traffic (e.g. SAN-MDW-IAD) of some consequence on the route.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 54):
Atleast with the BWI based transcons, it has a hub on that side to provide some southeast and northeast US cities connections.

True and this route was always odd. I believe they added it because they thought F9 was going to. I still think that it was fodder for the capacity shaming. Another factor may have been that the route was "the baby" of the now departed Planning Director who took the AS VP job. People are often quick to throw away other people's decisions once they are gone. CAK, for example...
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:16 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
At the risk of pulling hair, this is yet another example of a route that will pull traffic from SLC. I don't think many envisioned that a route as thin as MSO would be added to SEA a year ago. It's actually odd that these are the types of routes they are concentrating on now. There must be more in CA, NM, AZ, CO they could add with more value.

Possibly, but MSO/BZN/FCA are a lot closer and I know that at least at BZN Delta has the biggest footprint already. SEA-MSO is actually shorter than SEA-BOI so it wouldn't tie up a plane for very long. Little by little DL is completely replicating the QX route map out of SEA.
 
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cageyjames
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:19 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*US PHX-HNL JAN 3>1.9 FEB 4>1.9
US PHX-LIH JAN 2>1.3 FEB 3>1.0

I wonder if this is retirement of the old 752s from HP. Is there any word if they'll put a pmAA 757 or 767 on the route? Not that I think PHX-LIH can sustain a 767 though...
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:23 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 56):

Possibly, but MSO/BZN/FCA are a lot closer and I know that at least at BZN Delta has the biggest footprint already. SEA-MSO is actually shorter than SEA-BOI so it wouldn't tie up a plane for very long. Little by little DL is completely replicating the QX route map out of SEA.

At the same time, I took a look at the offerings out of MSO and it seems that DL is indeed the strongest out of the US3. UA year-round is only to DEN, while AA/US has no presence at all (probably relying entirely on AS codeshare)
 
ckfred
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:32 pm

It looks like AA is doing a fair number of reductions. You wonder how much of the reductions is do to upsizing of aircraft, how much is because connecting traffic is flowing through US hubs, and how much is because of the rebanking of DFW and ORD?
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:47 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 51):
That said, I was surprised WN added IAD-SAN over IAD-PHX. The IAD station, at this point, is just there as a complementary station to DCA with some west bound services

I think there might be a couple of reasons for the start of the SAN-Dulles flight last November.

WN already had a good presence in the SAN-WAS market with 2 daily (and long-lived) nonstops to BWI plus their direct (via AUS) no-change SAN-DCA flight that they proposed and have faithfully op'd since the last Beyond-Perimeter hearing ended in 2012. This WN service is now the best on-going offered between Lindbergh and Reagan airports.

As no one now flies nonstop between SAN and DCA, I think WN might be positioning themselves for the next Beyond-Perimeter hearing to help them win a nonstop authority in the market. With nonstops to both IAD and BWI plus direct service to DCA, WN certainly offers the most complete coverage to the DC airports from SAN. Perhaps they feel the DOT would appreciate that fact when handing out the next SAN-DCA nonstop award(s)?

Also, besides WN, only UA flies between SAN and IAD, a market with fairly healthy O&D traffic. There was some activity last year, especially by F9, adding domestic routes out of Dulles, and I think WN might have decided to grab some of the SAN-market before someone else did.

Finally, SAN IS a large WN operation with about 100 daily flights to about 26 destinations and carrying about 40% of the passengers traffic in and out of the airport. In fact, SAN might be more strategic to the WN system than some people think. The carrier continuing to expand and grow at SAN doesn't seem so strange to me... And since the majority of short and mid-haul markets are already connected with SAN, long-hauls being added also makes sense.

bb
 
hiflyeras
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:15 pm

Quoting mwh787 (Reply 46):
This is quite a reduction for AA in the SEA market are they maybe allowing AS more flying on this route and the PDX route. I had not see any increase from them but I may have missed it.

AS appears to be retaining their 4x daily schedule through New Year's instead of pulling back to 3x as they normally do in the fall.
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:21 pm

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 57):
I wonder if this is retirement of the old 752s from HP. Is there any word if they'll put a pmAA 757 or 767 on the route? Not that I think PHX-LIH can sustain a 767 though...

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see much of that traffic shifted to LAX & DFW, actually. PHX was the only US hub which was suitable for Hawai'i flights (CLT-HNL was a disaster).

Quoting cosyr (Reply 49):
UA has had 2x daily SYR-IAD, but I had no idea they flew fewer flights to BUF which is a much larger market.

IMO IAD-BUF is more challenged than IAD-SYR because UA competes with WN's BWI-BUF for traffic to WAS; WN doesn't serve SYR so UA splits WAS-SYR with AA/US. WN has a bit over 60% of WAS-BUF, while UA has about 5%. In contrast, UA takes about 15% of WAS-SYR at a higher average fare than what they get for IAD-BUF.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
WN doesn't even have the technology to reaccom passengers. WN loads their schedule and doesn't change it to some extent because they can't. That's why these cuts are so noticeable. I'd love to know how much manpower has to be devoted to this manual reaccom. That's a great example of not handling change well. They are the only large airline in the industry without that ability.

I don't think it's that big of a deal three months out. You just assign some reservations agents to do the reaccoms during time periods when the res center is ordinarily quiet. Bookings are still going to be fairly light that far out.

Quoting enilria (Reply 24):
I wonder if some of the Key West pull downs have to do with Mokulele's "not really an announcement but is" of them entering the Florida market?

Who runs before the enemy even arrives? I bet they are short of pilots.

   If ZK can't find pilots, I can't see why 3M would be any more successful finding pilots -- except for maybe the better weather in Florida.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 26):
My speculation is that 3M is losing serious money (for them) on IAD flying. EAS money won't save you if you're only carrying 3 pax on some of the flights.

EAS is basically structured to guarantee a margin. It's just that the government pulls the funding after a couple of years if you can't get 10 passengers per day in a market.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA DEN-FLL OCT 0.2>0.0 NOV 1.0>0.1

Bizarre that UA cannot maintain daily non-stop service from Denver to the eighth-largest metro area in the U.S.
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting mwh787 (Reply 46):
This is quite a reduction for AA in the SEA market are they maybe allowing AS more flying on this route and the PDX route. I had not see any increase from them but I may have missed it

It's not just ORD-SEA that's being reduced...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-ABQ DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 4>3
AA ORD-ATL DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-AUS DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-BNA DEC 9>7 JAN 9>7 FEB 10>8
AA ORD-BUF DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5
AA ORD-BWI DEC 6>4 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>5
AA ORD-CID NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 7>6
AA ORD-CLE NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-CLT SEP 3>2
AA ORD-DEN DEC 6>5 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>4
AA ORD-DFW NOV 17>16 DEC 18>17 JAN 18>17 FEB 19>18
AA ORD-ELP JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-EWR FEB 9>8
AA ORD-FSD DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 4>3
AA ORD-GRR DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-HSV NOV 1.9>1.0 DEC 1.9>0.9 JAN 1.8>0.8 FEB 1.9>0.9
AA ORD-LAS DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4
AA ORD-LEX JAN 3>1.2 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-LIT DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5
AA ORD-MDT DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-MEM DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-MSP DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-OKC DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-PDX DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-PIA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-PIT DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-RDU DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-RIC DEC 5>4 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-RNO DEC 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.4
AA ORD-ROC DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-SAN NOV 3>4 DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-SAT NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
AA ORD-SDF NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-SEA DEC 6>4 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>4
AA ORD-SFO DEC 7>6 JAN 7>5 FEB 8>5
AA ORD-SJC DEC 3>2 JAN 3>1.1 FEB 4>1.0
AA ORD-SJD NOV 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.2>1.0 FEB 1.2>0.9
AA ORD-SNA NOV 3>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-STL DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9 FEB 11>10
AA ORD-SUX DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-SYR DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-TUL DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>3
AA ORD-TVC DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-TYS DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2
AA ORD-XNA DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 7>6
AA ORD-YKF JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-YUL DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4

bb
 
hiflyeras
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:30 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 63):
It's not just ORD-SEA that's being reduced...

Dang...if there's an increase on that list I can't find it. DFW looks about the same now that you mention it. Big capacity cut coming for AA?
 
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adamh8297
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:41 pm

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 41):
B6 BOS-LIR 1x weekly just began on November 01st 2014 and the source unfortunately doesn't provide figures beyond December 2014 yet.

I believe the route did a lot better from looking at B6 seat maps for those other months. The first month for these seasonal routes is always lower loads since the return on that first day is pretty light.

B6 must have seen the flows on Sunday or other days via JFK. A couple people I ran into in Cocos who flew the inaugural in November also only stayed 4 days. I wish I stayed 10 days instead of 7. A few ex-pats and snowbirds were on the inaugural as well going one-way.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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cageyjames
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 62):
I wouldn't be all that surprised to see much of that traffic shifted to LAX & DFW, actually. PHX was the only US hub which was suitable for Hawai'i flights (CLT-HNL was a disaster).

I'd expect to see LIH fall but I can't imagine AA abandoning OGG or HNL (Even KOA). The minute AA drops PHX-OGG, I suspect we'll see HA pick that up.
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 64):
Dang...if there's an increase on that list I can't find it

  I quickly went thru Enilria's original list and removed the (very few) increases I saw; what I posted was supposed to pretty much be all AA redux at ORD!

BTW, for those involved in the WN reduction situation, be aware that next week, June 30, WN's Jan 4, 2016 sked extension is supposed to be released.

I for one will be very anxious to see what early 2016 looks like... what flights are around, and which are gone. That might shed some light on what's going on in Q4 2015.

bb
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:53 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 63):
AA ORD-SFO DEC 7>6 JAN 7>5 FEB 8>5

So they're boosting SFO-LAX and SFO-JFK then massively trimming ORD-SFO ? And they say only UA runs away from the competition .....
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 66):
The minute AA drops PHX-OGG, I suspect we'll see HA pick that up.

I personally would be very surprised to see HA do that. I think HA would be very content to continue to serve only PHX-HNL just as they do today, just as they do at a lot of their mainland stations

bb
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:12 pm

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 64):
Dang...if there's an increase on that list I can't find it. DFW looks about the same now that you mention it. Big capacity cut coming for AA?

There are adds, you just have to look closely.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA ORD-ASE JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-CMI DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 6>7
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-FLL DEC 2>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-LAX NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10 JAN 9>10 FEB 10>11
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-PBI NOV 1.0>1.9 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-RSW NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.9>3 JAN 1.8>3 FEB 1.9>4
 
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cosyr
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 62):
IMO IAD-BUF is more challenged than IAD-SYR because UA competes with WN's BWI-BUF for traffic to WAS; WN doesn't serve SYR so UA splits WAS-SYR with AA/US. WN has a bit over 60% of WAS-BUF, while UA has about 5%. In contrast, UA takes about 15% of WAS-SYR at a higher average fare than what they get for IAD-BUF.

I'm sure that that is what is at play here, but I'm surprised that the BUF to everywhere else through IAD doesn't warrant even 2 flights a day. On the last major schedule, they had 4 flights daily from SYR-ORD/IAD/EWR, then they right size, 5 at ORD, 3 at EWR, etc., but EWR is not many people's desired domestic connection, and ORD is out of the way for everywhere on the east coast.

I thought with CLE closing, that IAD would be strengthened, but that does not seem to be the case lately.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:21 pm

Quoting rdh3e (Reply 70):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA ORD-ASE JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-CMI DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 6>7
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-FLL DEC 2>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-LAX NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10 JAN 9>10 FEB 10>11
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-PBI NOV 1.0>1.9 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-RSW NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.9>3 JAN 1.8>3 FEB 1.9>4

This reads like AA detecting UA's extreme weakness on ORD-Florida and taking to stab them once and for all.
 
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cageyjames
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:38 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 69):
I personally would be very surprised to see HA do that. I think HA would be very content to continue to serve only PHX-HNL just as they do today, just as they do at a lot of their mainland stations

HA has flights to LAX, OAK, SFO, SJO and SEA from OGG. We'll have to see what happens but I doubt we'll see AA drop PHX-HNL, PHX-OGG and PHX-KOA.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:52 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 56):
Possibly, but MSO/BZN/FCA are a lot closer

I wonder if this has something to do with gates. The short stuff is easier to fit somehow? Size or timing?

Quoting ScottB (Reply 62):
Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
WN doesn't even have the technology to reaccom passengers. WN loads their schedule and doesn't change it to some extent because they can't. That's why these cuts are so noticeable. I'd love to know how much manpower has to be devoted to this manual reaccom. That's a great example of not handling change well. They are the only large airline in the industry without that ability.

I don't think it's that big of a deal three months out.

These days calling people on the phone is pretty messy.

Everybody should remember that another reason to cut long-hauls to reduce capacity when you don't have automated reaccom is that it vastly reduces the number of customers that must be processed per ASM of capacity impacted.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 62):
  If ZK can't find pilots, I can't see why 3M would be any more successful finding pilots -- except for maybe the better weather in Florida.

Exactly

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 64):
Big capacity cut coming for AA?

Didn't they say they would cut capacity more just a week or so ago?

Quoting SANFan (Reply 67):
BTW, for those involved in the WN reduction situation, be aware that next week, June 30, WN's Jan 4, 2016 sked extension is supposed to be released.

Interesting...

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 72):
This reads like AA detecting UA's extreme weakness on ORD-Florida

UA is weak to Florida from EVERYWHERE.
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:00 pm

Quoting rdh3e (Reply 70):
There are adds, you just have to look closely.
Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 72):
This reads like AA detecting UA's extreme weakness on ORD-Florida and taking to stab them once and for all.

I think this is all just the new AA adopting the old US tactic of seasonal adjustments based on common traffic flows. During winter, traffic intra-Midwest drops and traffic flowing from the Midwest to warmer areas (and ski resorts) increases. They'll probably take the opportunity to get some more planes into the paint shop.

There's also the factor of the US codes still being separate. There's too much we still don't see, hopefully things clear up in the next couple of months.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:06 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 74):


Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 72):
This reads like AA detecting UA's extreme weakness on ORD-Florida

UA is weak to Florida from EVERYWHERE.

*except* EWR ... That seems to be the single hub that UA bothers to be competitive with Florida, and bit of IAH sprinkled here and there

But if you look at geography, UA doesn't have any hubs that are geographically competitive against MIA ATL CLT.

So essentially UA can only draw from 2 kinds of traffic flow - west-cost - IAH - Florida, and North-east - EWR - Florida.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:14 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 76):
*except* EWR ... That seems to be the single hub that UA bothers to be competitive with Florida, and bit of IAH sprinkled here and there

I dont think UA is weak to Florida from IAH at all. UA is VERY weak to Florida from IAD and ORD.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 76):
*except* EWR ... That seems to be the single hub that UA bothers to be competitive with Florida, and bit of IAH sprinkled here and there

I have it on good information that EWR-Florida is only barely profitable during the best of the economic cycle (now) and loses money nearly all the time. I'd say that because the product is so weak for UA in Florida that they get ZERO business and it's just all leisure. They don't have the cost structure for that.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 77):
UA is VERY weak to Florida from IAD and ORD.

...and DEN...and LAX...and SFO. Pretty much everything PMUA.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 78):

I have it on good information that EWR-Florida is only barely profitable during the best of the economic cycle (now) and loses money nearly all the time. I'd say that because the product is so weak for UA in Florida that they get ZERO business and it's just all leisure. They don't have the cost structure for that.

You can expand that to pretty much ALL carriers. The competition for NYC-Florida is so intense there's no way anyone would be massively profitable. The only single case scenario being AA's LGA-MIA.

I mean jetblue built their entire business upon shuffling the northeast transplants to Florida.

Quoting enilria (Reply 78):

...and DEN...and LAX...and SFO. Pretty much everything PMUA.

There's no way anyone can fix the geographic disadvantage that UA's hub structure presents, even if you were Richard Anderson or Scott Kirby. The closest UA hub to FLL is IAD, which is 900+ miles away. (of course the new flood of LCC service at DCA isn't helping either)

Run 8x daily on ORD-FLL and ORD-MIA to buy marketshare? That's financial suicide.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:15 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 79):
You can expand that to pretty much ALL carriers. The competition for NYC-Florida is so intense there's no way anyone would be massively profitable. The only single case scenario being AA's LGA-MIA.

Perhaps, but DL seems to invest a lot of capacity in Florida. They must be making money, although arguably they have the best positioned hub.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 79):
There's no way anyone can fix the geographic disadvantage that UA's hub structure presents

ORD and IAD could be strong to Florida. Even if you say IAD is just cursed, ORD is a significant Florida market that UA just never cared much about.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 78):
I'd say that because the product is so weak for UA in Florida that they get ZERO business and it's just all leisure.

Many of the EWR-Florida flights are operated by international 757s. Hardly a weak product... Now if you mean "schedule" product that's a different matter and should probably be said that the "schedule is so weak" or "the brand is so weak."
 
sw733
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
UA IAH-MKC AUG 0.1>0.0

I'm awfully confused by this, seeing as MKC hasn't seen any commercial service in decades. That being said, I have seen UA 737s at MKC for major league baseball charters  
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 80):

Perhaps, but DL seems to invest a lot of capacity in Florida. They must be making money, although arguably they have the best positioned hub.

DL's Florida is very much ATL based. If you look at their NYC offering, they're on par with everyone else.

Quoting enilria (Reply 80):

ORD and IAD could be strong to Florida. Even if you say IAD is just cursed, ORD is a significant Florida market that UA just never cared much about.

I agree ORD-FLL/MIA could use a bit of improvement. But then again, AA ORD-FLL is just 2x daily as well. WN is 5x from MDW and NK is 3x. It's sizable but not all that "significant" when you divvy that pie up between all the competition.

Regarding WAS, it's very easy to find $92 a.i. one-way fares DCA-FLL. When DCA fares are that low, why would anyone want to go to IAD ?
 
Timaay419
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA LAX-STL DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 4>3

The evening departure from STL back to Los Angeles is gone. Who wants to leave the midwest to go back to Cali at 1pm on a Sunday after a weekend visit? LAX-STL has a nice morning/evening schedule, but the return is lame.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 78):

You say they "don't have the product for Florida", what on earth does that mean? What do you propose other carriers are offering that UA aren't? That statement simply makes no sense whatsoever!

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 77):

UA is much smaller on IAH-Florida than CO were pre-merger.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
764
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*LH ORD-DUS OCT 0.7>0.6 NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0

I wonder whether this is due to declining demand caused by people avoiding DUS as a hub since all connecting flights are now on Germanwings? I sure am.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:14 pm

Quoting 764 (Reply 86):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*LH ORD-DUS OCT 0.7>0.6 NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0

I wonder whether this is due to declining demand caused by people avoiding DUS as a hub since all connecting flights are now on Germanwings? I sure am.

The freak accident at 4U didn't help things either. It's psychological too - even if LH and 4U offered identical onboard products on their intra-European flights, passengers would prefer the full service approach instead of some hybrid that is neither FSC nor truly LCC (like norwegian)
 
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RWA380
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:09 am

Quoting mwh787 (Reply 46):
This is quite a reduction for AA in the SEA market are they maybe allowing AS more flying on this route and the PDX route. I had not see any increase from them but I may have missed it.

I think it's a good indication that AA & AS are working well together, as AS didn't drop frequency, yet.

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 61):
AS appears to be retaining their 4x daily schedule through New Year's instead of pulling back to 3x as they normally do in the fall.

I bet both AS & DL will keep up as big of a schedule as possible to keep the gate police from coming around at SEA.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 63):
It's not just ORD-SEA that's being reduced...

Yeah, for real, PDX is down to 1x daily to ORD on AA.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 66):
The minute AA drops PHX-OGG,

Will mean that AA is dismantling their PHX hub, this is a fairly steady route with good LF's.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 66):
I suspect we'll see HA pick that up.

I think once the 321neo's come along, I'd be surprised if HA didn't add PHX-OGG.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 72):
This reads like AA detecting UA's extreme weakness on ORD-Florida and taking to stab them once and for all.

I think AA is just the much stronger airline to Florida overall & their massive presence down there means more loyal passengers that frequent the route.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 73):
We'll have to see what happens but I doubt we'll see AA drop PHX-HNL, PHX-OGG and PHX-KOA

Or LIH, IMHO.

Quoting enilria (Reply 74):
I wonder if this has something to do with gates. The short stuff is easier to fit somehow? Size or timing?

I'm sure that has something to do with it, keeping their respective gates busy at SEA will help DL & AS when they are vying for future space with the P.O.S.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:01 am

Quoting rdh3e (Reply 81):
Many of the EWR-Florida flights are operated by international 757s. Hardly a weak product... Now if you mean "schedule" product that's a different matter and should probably be said that the "schedule is so weak" or "the brand is so weak."
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 85):
You say they "don't have the product for Florida", what on earth does that mean? What do you propose other carriers are offering that UA aren't? That statement simply makes no sense whatsoever!

For domestic the product that creates loyalty is hands down breadth of schedule. That's how B6 took BOS. The carrier that can take you to the most places you want to go to engenders loyalty. Loyalty equals more business travelers. More business travelers equals better yields. Control of the business travelers means less opportunity for competitors. Less opportunity for competitors also means higher yields.

Forget whether the seats are leather and whether there are cookies and whether there is a USB plug, it's nearly all about schedule. UA's product breadth in Florida SUCKS. A lot of it is just that they overfly the whole South, but they also have crappy schedules to all the PMUA hubs.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 83):
But then again, AA ORD-FLL is just 2x daily as well. WN is 5x from MDW and NK is 3x. It's sizable but not all that "significant" when you divvy that pie up between all the competition.

BUT if you go back in time to when WN, FL, and NK weren't flying a ton of flights to Florida from CHI, UA/AA still had a crappy schedule to Florida. I think if you go all the way back to the 1970s you would find DL flying that stuff. They never cared about it.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 88):
I'm sure that has something to do with it, keeping their respective gates busy at SEA will help DL & AS when they are vying for future space with the P.O.S.

I suspect
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:44 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
I must say I'm surprised that not a single person has posted much about the two new SEA routes for DL.

They've added so much, I can't even remember it all. Anymore, when a post says "DL adds SEA-XXX", I just think "Oh, I thought they already did?"  

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:33 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 88):
Quoting mwh787 (Reply 46):
This is quite a reduction for AA in the SEA market are they maybe allowing AS more flying on this route and the PDX route. I had not see any increase from them but I may have missed it.

I think it's a good indication that AA & AS are working well together, as AS didn't drop frequency, yet.

They can't coordinate capacity or schedules without anti-trust immunity and there's little reason to grant it.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:28 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 90):
They've added so much, I can't even remember it all. Anymore, when a post says "DL adds SEA-XXX", I just think "Oh, I thought they already did?"

I had that feeling with CUN, but MSO? LOL
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:43 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 92):
I had that feeling with CUN, but MSO? LOL

Victoria and now Missoula. Forget large markets to feed international flights. I have to think FCA and/or BIL are not far behind. DL seems to like Montana and up until now QX has really had the lion's share of westbound connections.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:56 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 93):
Victoria and now Missoula. Forget large markets to feed international flights. I have to think FCA and/or BIL are not far behind.
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 93):
DL seems to like Montana

NW was strong there and DL brought SLC to the party which allowed DL to hold on to those markets tightly, BUT I agree they produce very little Asia traffic (except Yellowstone) and DL is going to find that it will hurt SLC. The question is when will it reach the tipping point. I still wonder if these oddball markets are somehow related to SEA gates.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:29 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 93):
DL seems to like Montana and up until now QX has really had the lion's share of westbound connections.

DL at SLC handles the vast majority of MT west-bound traffic, most of which is going to California.
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:30 pm

Quoting rdh3e (Reply 95):
DL at SLC handles the vast majority of MT west-bound traffic, most of which is going to California.

I actually meant anything in a western - not southwest - direction. Meaning Oregon/Washington/BC for the most part. DL and UA are going to be the biggest players in any other direction.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 96):
I actually meant anything in a western - not southwest - direction. Meaning Oregon/Washington/BC for the most part. DL and UA are going to be the biggest players in any other direction.

Well that's a pretty limited direction   Very few passengers (relative to the total) flying between OR/WA/BC and Montana.
 
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RWA380
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:12 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 93):
DL seems to like Montana

Don't forget the DL routes into MT that they retain mostly came from WA & the SLC hub, DL has been entrenched in MT for many decades now & with the more recent addition of NW it gave them flights to MSP. Back in the day NW was thew carrier from MT to GEG then SEA. On 720's, DC-10's & 727's.

Quoting rdh3e (Reply 97):
Very few passengers (relative to the total) flying between OR/WA/BC and Montana.

QX has been doing pretty good providing service from these markets for decades, they must be making something decent.
But I do agree more people likely travel from CA to MT for VFR reasons.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
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cageyjames
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 88):
Or LIH, IMHO.

Do you think an A321 in any form can do PHX-LIH? When the 757s go, what else would be left? A daily 767?

I know the flights are full (I don't know if they are profitable). But without the right aircraft PHX-LIH probably is best served from LAX.

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