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rtalk25
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 89):
BUT if you go back in time to when WN, FL, and NK weren't flying a ton of flights to Florida from CHI, UA/AA still had a crappy schedule to Florida. I think if you go all the way back to the 1970s you would find DL flying that stuff. They never cared about it.

I don't know if it's also the Chicago and Midwest isn't as Florida crazy as the Northeast-BWI corridor, or the lack of service has kept fares higher thus not stimulating the market as much.

One would think B6 would be covering some ORD-Florida by now. Even WN's MDW-Florida isn't that large relative to what it does from BWI and there are likely so many more potential connecting pax through MDW. IIRC, F9 has more Florida service from PHL than from ORD, and I think NK has more from ACY than out of ORD.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:50 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 100):

I don't know if it's also the Chicago and Midwest isn't as Florida crazy as the Northeast-BWI corridor, or the lack of service has kept fares higher thus not stimulating the market as much.

We'll also have to look at what PMUS and DL has historically quoted out with a transit through CLT/ATL. If they're routinely selling $150-225 RT a.i. fares on ORD-Florida, there's very little incentive for the ORD hubbers to go big on ORD-Florida.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:52 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 100):
I don't know if it's also the Chicago and Midwest isn't as Florida crazy as the Northeast-BWI corridor, or the lack of service has kept fares higher thus not stimulating the market as much.

I don't think it's the former, more the latter. I think I read that among the population of Ft. Myers, Chicago is the largest location of second home owners. I definitely believe that.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 100):
One would think B6 would be covering some ORD-Florida by now.

You would think that. BNA is easier? Probably not. B6 is just weak in ORD...and HOU. It's interesting they skipped ATL and chose BNA.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 98):
QX has been doing pretty good providing service from these markets for decades, they must be making something decent.

During peak season, QX flies 3-daily on BZN-SEA and once daily on BZN-PDX. There are strong business and economic ties between Montana and SEA, especially in MSO/FCA areas. Even in BZN, the TV networks treat the Mariners as the home-town team. (We get the Jazz in Winter, showing some love for SLC, but if SEA ever gets another NBA team, who knows...)
I'm not at all surprised by DL adding BZN and MSO from SEA. DL has a market ready and waiting for the routes. The community here seems to like AS/QX, and it's not at all uncommon for my acquaintances to fly to California via Seattle. More options will be good. The DL/AS codeshare and FF agreement has served Montana Medallions well. I've personally flown QX to SEA and connected to LAX on DL when the schedule was better than flying via SLC. When searching European flights from BZN on DL, flights via SEA using the QX codeshare are frequently at the top of the list. It will be interesting to see how things play out when that relationship finally falls apart.
 
fiddlerkrt
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:01 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-ABQ DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 4>3
*AA ORD-ASE JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
AA ORD-ATL DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-AUS DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-BNA DEC 9>7 JAN 9>7 FEB 10>8
AA ORD-BUF DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5
AA ORD-BWI DEC 6>4 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>5
AA ORD-CID NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 7>6
AA ORD-CLE NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-CLT SEP 3>2
AA ORD-CMH NOV 7>8 DEC 7>8 JAN 7>8 FEB 8>9
AA ORD-CMI DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 6>7
AA ORD-DEN DEC 6>5 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>4
AA ORD-DFW NOV 17>16 DEC 18>17 JAN 18>17 FEB 19>18
AA ORD-ELP JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-EWR FEB 9>8
AA ORD-FLL DEC 2>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5
AA ORD-FSD DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 4>3
AA ORD-GRR DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-HSV NOV 1.9>1.0 DEC 1.9>0.9 JAN 1.8>0.8 FEB 1.9>0.9
AA ORD-LAS DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4
AA ORD-LAX NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10 JAN 9>10 FEB 10>11
AA ORD-LEX JAN 3>1.2 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-LIT DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5
AA ORD-MCO NOV 4>5
AA ORD-MDT DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-MEM DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-MSP DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-OKC DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-PBI NOV 1.0>1.9 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3
AA ORD-PDX DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-PIA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-PIT DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7
AA ORD-PSP JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>3
AA ORD-RDU DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-RIC DEC 5>4 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-RNO DEC 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.4
AA ORD-ROC DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-RSW NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.9>3 JAN 1.8>3 FEB 1.9>4
AA ORD-SAN NOV 3>4 DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-SAT NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
AA ORD-SDF NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-SEA DEC 6>4 JAN 6>4 FEB 7>4
AA ORD-SFO DEC 7>6 JAN 7>5 FEB 8>5
AA ORD-SJC DEC 3>2 JAN 3>1.1 FEB 4>1.0
AA ORD-SJD NOV 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.2>1.0 FEB 1.2>0.9
AA ORD-SNA NOV 3>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-STL DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9 FEB 11>10
AA ORD-SUX DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-SYR DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AA ORD-TUL DEC 5>3 JAN 5>3 FEB 6>3
AA ORD-TVC DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4
AA ORD-TYS DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2
AA ORD-XNA DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 7>6
AA ORD-YKF JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0
AA ORD-YUL DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4

Thank-you for these threads, enilria, I always read and find them interesting.

I want to make it clear that I'm not shooting the messenger who simply gives us the numbers. That being said, I think we should take AA ORD's "reductions" with a grain of salt. ORD-BWI has never been 7 daily, especially in February! Even during peak summer months it only gets as high as 5 daily. This bizarre number motivated me to look at other routes.

ORD-DEN is normally 4 daily for the month of June, so AA cannot possibly be reducing the frequency from 7 to 4 daily in February. Other city pairs I checked were ORD-OKC which is 5 daily in the summer, ORD-SEA which is 6 daily in the summer, and ORD-SJC which is 3 daily in the summer. I looked these up on AA.com for June 25.

I think the "new" frequencies are correct, but the "old" ones for many cities out of ORD are inflated for some reason (especially for the month of February). I don't think the ORD hub is getting cut much at all despite what these numbers seem to indicate.
 
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usdcaguy
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:28 pm

Quoting OKCFlyer (Reply 47):
TUL took cuts from ORD and DFW from AA and ORD from AA. Fairly step cuts unless some upgauging is occurring.

I question whether there is enough demand for them to fly multiple dailies to/from ORD. Going to 3x/day is still a pretty good showing for AA. You have to wonder if WN entering the market with MDW-TUL had anything to do with it.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 59):
You wonder how much of the reductions is do to upsizing of aircraft, how much is because connecting traffic is flowing through US hubs, and how much is because of the rebanking of DFW and ORD?

Would any of this have to do with capacity discipline during the winter months when demand drops off? They may be following DL in cutting a lot of flying during the winter if it's too marginal. Shareholders in general want to see capacity discipline from each carrier so their PRASM goes up, so any cuts at this point would not surprise me and would be a good indication of aggressive RM strategies in light of the merger.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:42 pm

Quoting fiddlerkrt (Reply 104):
Thank-you for these threads, enilria, I always read and find them interesting.

 
Quoting fiddlerkrt (Reply 104):
I think the "new" frequencies are correct, but the "old" ones for many cities out of ORD are inflated for some reason (especially for the month of February). I don't think the ORD hub is getting cut much at all despite what these numbers seem to indicate.

I can't answer that one way or another. It is not uncommon to sell a "big" schedule far in advance. Also, people think this is a year over year comparison when it isn't unless it specifically says so in cases where carriers don't file 330 days schedules. This is a week to week comparison, so you may be right that the schedule they were previously selling was unflyable. I would argue, however, from a consumer protection point of view it is pretty wrong to market a product that you know you can't deliver. Wouldn't be the first time, though.
 
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RWA380
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:38 am

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 99):
Do you think an A321 in any form can do PHX-LIH? When the 757s go, what else would be left? A daily 767?

Not the 321, but maybe the 321neo will likely be restricted, but there is no real need to worry it'll be many years before all the 757's are gone from AA's fleet. I can't see the 763 on PHX-LIH.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:14 am

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 105):
I question whether there is enough demand for them to fly multiple dailies to/from ORD. Going to 3x/day is still a pretty good showing for AA. You have to wonder if WN entering the market with MDW-TUL had anything to do with it.

At one time, TUL was big for AA because they had a maintenance base there - meaning lots of planed needed to go in and out.

Does anyone know if that facility is still open, or did everything get moved to DFW and/or Alliance Airport in Ft. Worth?
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
FlyPeoria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:11 pm

Quote:
AA DFW-PIA NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4

I wonder if this is a mistake? AE plans to upgauge to CR7s on the PIA-DFW route September 5, and reduce frequency from 3 to 2 daily roundtrips. It is the second delay for the upgauge (originally planned for March 29, then July 2), so PIA-DFW has maintained 3 roundtrips for the most part. Even if the upgauge is delayed again, 4 roundtrips seems a bit much.

Quote:
AA ORD-PIA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4

Normally, AE runs 3 PIA-ORD in winter and 4 the rest of the year.
 
ckfred
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 105):
Would any of this have to do with capacity discipline during the winter months when demand drops off? They may be following DL in cutting a lot of flying during the winter if it's too marginal. Shareholders in general want to see capacity discipline from each carrier so their PRASM goes up, so any cuts at this point would not surprise me and would be a good indication of aggressive RM strategies in light of the merger.

But, you look at some of the routes, and they are business routes that should have steady demand year-round.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 108):
At one time, TUL was big for AA because they had a maintenance base there - meaning lots of planed needed to go in and out.

Does anyone know if that facility is still open, or did everything get moved to DFW and/or Alliance Airport in Ft. Worth?

I think Alliance was closed, while the maintenance base at TUL was kept. AA also closed the old TWA maintenance base at MCI.

If you look at Flightaware.com, the 738 delivery flights from BFI go to TUL.
 
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intsim
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:27 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 92):

I had that feeling with CUN, but MSO? LOL


It is an interesting addition. Usually Jan/Feb is slow around here. It does make some sense though. There is a lot of Hawai'i travel, the MSP flights go down to 1x daily. It probably is easier to start routing International pax through Seattle. Plus our Universities seem to be increasing in International students but I haven't checked any statistics.

Thanks for these threads.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:44 pm

Quoting intsim (Reply 111):
Thanks for these threads.

You are welcome. I am glad the economy there is looking good. The question is not whether really any market can handle more capacity. Nearly every market in the USA has too little capacity as a result of the airline's tight grip on supply of seats. The question is whether adding another hub from MSO will hurt DL's other flights financially. Not that it will make them go from profitable to unprofitable, but whether it will make them less profitable. It is a microcosm of the whole issue with the overall network impact building a hub like SEA will have on the rest of the DL network and frankly SLC suffers both from the growth of SEA and from LAX. As of now there is really no sign that DL is significantly changing SLC as a result (much like AA in PHX) but it is something many of us continue to look for as it is a logical potential outcome.
 
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intsim
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:22 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 112):
You are welcome. I am glad the economy there is looking good. The question is not whether really any market can handle more capacity. Nearly every market in the USA has too little capacity as a result of the airline's tight grip on supply of seats. The question is whether adding another hub from MSO will hurt DL's other flights financially. Not that it will make them go from profitable to unprofitable, but whether it will make them less profitable. It is a microcosm of the whole issue with the overall network impact building a hub like SEA will have on the rest of the DL network and frankly SLC suffers both from the growth of SEA and from LAX. As of now there is really no sign that DL is significantly changing SLC as a result (much like AA in PHX) but it is something many of us continue to look for as it is a logical potential outcome.

I hear what you are saying.

I don't think, at least for this offering, it will hurt DL. Back in the day SLC was it. The larger cities had UAL and NWA. Montana has always had higher ticket prices. It seems like with the demand for domestic travel increasing they are able to retain higher revenues for the domestic legs and disperse themselves of flying people on multiple segments to get where they need to go to maintain or increasing profitability on established hub flights. But who knows, maybe this flight will turn into a FF express, for a short segment that might not be a bad thing to keep revenues higher on the established hub flights.
 
m404
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:49 am

Any idea what day those SEA-CUN DL flts will operate. I was curious what acft would be used but am unable to find a listing.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
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usdcaguy
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:09 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 110):
But, you look at some of the routes, and they are business routes that should have steady demand year-round.

Demand for business travel does fall off considerably in December and January and even February to a certain extent. People schedule far fewer business trips around the holidays, and business activity is often slow to pick up at the first of the year. AA is adding some capacity to markets like LAX/SNA, but I don't see much else besides LCH/LEX. If that is the extent of their winter adjustments, I'm scratching my head over the lack of additions to Latin America and the Caribbean that time of the year.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 6/26/2015: DL SEA-MSO+CUN/US/UA/AA

Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:49 pm

Quoting intsim (Reply 113):
I don't think, at least for this offering, it will hurt DL. Back in the day SLC was it. The larger cities had UAL and NWA. Montana has always had higher ticket prices. It seems like with the demand for domestic travel increasing they are able to retain higher revenues for the domestic legs and disperse themselves of flying people on multiple segments to get where they need to go to maintain or increasing profitability on established hub flights. But who knows, maybe this flight will turn into a FF express, for a short segment that might not be a bad thing to keep revenues higher on the established hub flights.

I just have to think that many of the connections via SEA will be the same ones that DL offers via SLC and that is where it would seem to me to create more supply and thus either lighter load factors or less ability to squeeze the fares up as high.

Quoting m404 (Reply 114):

Any idea what day those SEA-CUN DL flts will operate. I was curious what acft would be used but am unable to find a listing.

My database only stores by month and not day (it would be too big). I would assume it is Saturday. Delta.com?

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