Next SWA Schedule Extension 30 June

rtalk25 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:16 pm

I noticed from PHL, that WN will run just 3x daily PHL-MCO. Although F9's schedule doesn't extend as far out, F9 might be offering more seats to Orlando from the area in the winter through PHL and TTN as F9's late Fall schedule shows.

If B6 adds an MCO flight, and maybe Allegiant from ILG to SFB, WN might not feel PHL-MCO or PHL-Florida as a whole is worth servicing if there are better opportunities.

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 43):

WN is trying to court more business passengers now at IND, with nonstops to BOS/DCA/LGA. MDW connections will open more direct connections to MSP, EWR and PHL and some more markets. I think one couldn't even fly IND to EWR through WN when MDW service from IND was cut.

jbmitt · Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:26 pm

Looks like DSM and DAY are still available for booking.

enilria · Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 48):
Quoting enilria (Reply 46):
That resulted in a low prorated average fare of $153. For a distance of 1216 miles that is very low.

That works out to be a yield of about 12.5 cents. For that stage length, that is not that bad and likely profitable for WN...albeit a small profit. Plus, factor in a little bit of ancillary revenue and it's not nearly as bad as you are making it out to be.

I am able to compare it to other routes of that length in their network and it is in the bottom 20% of their routes.

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 49):
But you also have to consider that LAS is the only western connecting point out of DSM for WN,

I understand the reasons, but lower % local depresses the average prorate fare considerably.

usairways85 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:00 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 50):
I noticed from PHL, that WN will run just 3x daily PHL-MCO. Although F9's schedule doesn't extend as far out, F9 might be offering more seats to Orlando from the area in the winter through PHL and TTN as F9's late Fall schedule shows.

Wasn't WN/FL once at 5-7 flts/day at one point?

AA (US) has obviously been a powerhouse on PHL-MCO, but last year they flooded the market with multiple 330's a day between Jan-May. IIRC there were three daily 330's scheduled for most of March. Maybe that and F9 started to squeeze WN out.

enilria · Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:57 pm

Quoting jbmitt (Reply 51):

Looks like DSM and DAY are still available for booking.

No surprise. I think they will wait till a downturn to do something. FNT is still there too.

mtnwest1979 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:50 pm

Well I am really amazed to see a new BOI-SMF nonstop which is new. Guess retaliating against Horizon starting BOI GEG lol.

I also see MDW PNS n/s, is that new or a seasonal thing?

[Edited 2015-06-30 08:58:29]

FlyPNS1 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 55):
I also see MDW PNS n/s, is that new or a seasonal thing?

MDW-PNS already exists and is Saturday only flight. It was launched in March.

enilria · Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:53 pm

Most boring schedule extension ever???

SANFan · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:03 pm

I hope Bill will release a blog summary of changes here -- nothing yet.

Odd adds so far noted in this thread such as SMF-BOI (!!) & BUR-SFO. These are not very long routes and I thought the trend was away from those.

I will report from SAN that there is nothing much except that the IAD and MCO routes which are sked to be butchered later this year and were actually discussed a bit in last week's OAG thread, seem to be alive and well next year. SAN lost an OAK frequency but stands healthy at 97 daily departures in January, which is +2 from the Jan 2015 schedule!

bb

wwtraveler99 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:03 pm

Guessing from the time of year (feb-mar 8th) it's most likely reductions for the slower season. Expect more when the next extension is put out Aug 11th.

WW

ROCDLFAN · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:12 pm

So pretty much, to be blunt, absolutely nothing happened. Which doesn't surprise me in the least. I feel like consolidating everything to CVG would be an incredibly erratic move that would take a significant amount of planning, especially if they were to pull out of 3 stations to do it (which I don't see happening either.)

CAK is saved
DAY is saved
DSM is saved
FNT is saved

That's pretty much all that was of concern. For now, nothing has changed. (Other than aircraft swaps.)

n7371f · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 55):
Well I am really amazed to see a new BOI-SMF nonstop which is new. Guess retaliating against Horizon starting BOI GEG lol.

It could be in part because of the BOI-GEG add by AS. Just a loose thought. I'm going to assume GEG will be tagged onto SMF-BOI-GEG which could make the route more viable - and BOI-GEG more viable at same time. GEG-SMF has around 120-150 daily passengers each way.

SANFan · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:20 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 57):
Most boring schedule extension ever???

Despite the usual doomsday rumors (see OP) which of course didn't prove true, I personally was relieved at what (so far) has been revealed about this extension.

Considering it's for January-into-March, what huge moves would we expect to see? The fact that nothing terrible seems to have happened, plus a few small adds here and there, makes this one interesting (for me at least.)

bb

mtnwest1979 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:30 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 58):
These are not very long routes and I thought the trend was away from those.

As well as re-introduction of IND-MDW that was axed not al that long ago.

rtalk25 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 53):
Wasn't WN/FL once at 5-7 flts/day at one point?

AA (US) has obviously been a powerhouse on PHL-MCO, but last year they flooded the market with multiple 330's a day between Jan-May. IIRC there were three daily 330's scheduled for most of March. Maybe that and F9 started to squeeze WN out.

One thing that I noticed is no matter how many frequencies US runs on PHL-MCO, at times, it still follows the keep PHL pax captive rule where it charges super high on the nonstops and even connecting fares where the start or end destination is PHL, while discounting any connecting itineries beyond the hub. I was looking for a next week flight on MCO-PHL and US was charging $500 one-way on all MCO-PHL fares earlier in May,

I wound up purchasing a MCO-CLT-ABE for $176 one-way and did a one-way car rental from Enterprise from ABE to a local branch. WN was also charging high on the MCO-PHL but had cheaper MCO-ATL-PHL fares but the flights arrived in PHL too late, around 1am.

But, with this strategy in place, F9 will still get sales as there are going to be pax that don't way to pay $500 one-way to fly on the high frequency carrier.

But in the case of WN, it might not want to stay long term. Hard to tell, but it has a vast network with many stations where it can utilize aircraft elsewhere.

[Edited 2015-06-30 11:03:13]

SANFan · Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:53 pm

FYI, for anyone interested, Bill has blogged about the release:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/hello-2...januaryfebruary-schedule-now-open/

... and he's provided a summary-of-changes document for us as well:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/wp-cont...nt/uploads/2015/06/click-here2.pdf

Looks like this thread has captured most of the 'largest' changes, but now we have the whole story.

bb

sdoyon · Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:59 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 58):
These are not very long routes and I thought the trend was away from those.

I too find it very interesting that a bunch of "short" routes have been added/added back in this extension: SMF-BOI, BUR-SFO, IND-MDW, and LIT-STL, to name a few.

bcoz · Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:18 pm

For no particular reason, I found the axing of HOU-CHS and MDW-LIT to be most interesting/surprising.

bcoz

dbo861 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:26 pm

Quoting visakow (Reply 42):
There looking at closing 20 deals for more -700's. 10 from China.

Interesting. Any more information on this?

ScottB · Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 66):
I too find it very interesting that a bunch of "short" routes have been added/added back in this extension: SMF-BOI, BUR-SFO, IND-MDW, and LIT-STL, to name a few.

SFO-BUR is entirely new and not really a "short" route given the length of time required to drive between Silicon Valley (OK, SFO isn't exactly in Silicon Valley) and Silicone Valley. SMF-BOI isn't really short, either, at over 500 miles mostly on rural two-lane roads. But it is indeed interesting to see the other two "short" routes return and it does seem like WN is going to try to be more reliant on connections to fill these routes.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 65):
he's provided a summary-of-changes document for us as well

Apparently most or all of the routes being cut outside of LIT are seasonal.

vatveng · Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:12 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 14):
Could WN make a daily RIC-DEN

I seriously doubt it and almost certainly not yearround. F9 tried PHF I believe.

They did, and went from less-than-daily seasonal to daily year round to daily seasonal to less-than-daily seasonal to gone. But they did all that before their conversion to the ULCC model, and it was all about connections to the western half of the country. And as has been mentioned, connections aren't WN's strong suit either. And UA has no reason to fly RIC/ORF/PHF - DEN as they route those connections through ORD/IAH/IAD. So I don't see anyone starting southeastern Virginia to Denver, unless NK or G4 decides to do a 1-2x weekly during ski season.

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 14):
RIC-LAS work for better west-bound?

If fuel is cheap it could work, but that's the type of market better served with a red-eye and a plane otherwise doing nothing and WN can't compete in that arena. Having said that, I can see them trying it.

WN has a history of doing ORF-LAS seasonally. I don't think they've flown it since the FL merger.

rtalk25 · Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:00 pm

Quoting vatveng (Reply 70):
And as has been mentioned, connections aren't WN's strong suit either.

WN sells a lot of itineries involving a DEN connection. Try getting from BOS, EWR or PHL to the west coast on WN without a connection.

[Edited 2015-06-30 16:01:22]

CIDFlyer · Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:17 pm

From everything I have read previously about DSM I thought that station was doing well. I'd have to dig up some articles and do some more research but could swear I have read in the Des Moines Register that WN is happy there, so some of the comments about it here surprise me.

ROCDLFAN · Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:42 pm

As far as I can tell, the only station that is in a dire state right now would be PWM. Their going from 3 daily to 2 daily flights to BWI, the only station they serve. as far as I know, this makes PWM the smallest WN station in the system.

usflyguy · Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:00 am

Quoting ROCDLFAN (Reply 73):
As far as I can tell, the only station that is in a dire state right now would be PWM. Their going from 3 daily to 2 daily flights to BWI, the only station they serve. as far as I know, this makes PWM the smallest WN station in the system.

PWM-MDW is run as well... It's winter in Portland, Maine! No one wants to go there in the dead of winter!

BWI-LIT is ending as well...

mwh787 · Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:45 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 69):
SMF-BOI isn't really short, either, at over 500 miles mostly on rural two-lane roads.

I agree that this is not as short a route as some think. Still WN has pulled out of almost all small hop routes in the PNW that they kept for many years after the Morris Air merger.

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 68):
Quoting visakow (Reply 42):
There looking at closing 20 deals for more -700's. 10 from China.

Interesting. Any more information on this?

I echo, is there any more information on these frames? This should deserve its own thread. 20 frames would take care of the -500 retirements and more.

mtnwest1979 · Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:46 am

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 74):

PWM-MDW is run as well...

Sat only in summer.

enilria · Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:07 am

BUR-SFO and LIT-STL are odd. IND-MDW back is also odd.

OzarkD9S · Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:08 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 77):

BUR-SFO and LIT-STL are odd. IND-MDW back is also odd.

I was surprised by LIT-STL as well, but moving some LIT pax through STL is quicker than MDW. I noticed in the schedule extension STL has a net gain of 1 flight (3 reductions per day, 4 additions). The additions are LIT and 2 Florida cities. Pretty good compared to other stations for that period. STL serves it's purpose in the WN scheme of things it seems.

enilria · Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 78):

In the WN network STL is vastly inferior to MDW as a connect point. Thus, odd...

OzarkD9S · Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 79):

In the WN network STL is vastly inferior to MDW as a connect point. Thus, odd...

Not arguing, but most of the "big" markets are served from STL as well. At least eastbound, which for LIT pax is just as easy, and a tad quicker via STL...depending on schedules. I've been in STL during a Southwest "bank", and the terminal is hopping so "something" is working there.

It will be interesting to see where the LIT-STL flights continue to. If it's MDW then I'll be scratching my head.

INFINITI329 · Wed Jul 01, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 41):
Accept. A smaller plane isn't always the answer. If they're willing to happily serve cities whose peak potential is 4-6 flights per day, I think they're just fine with the 737 for a while. Smaller planes have higher costs per seats, generally, so bringing in a smaller plane doesn't do much for the equation in some cases.

Yes, the CASM may increase but what's the sense of flying around an airplane that has a lower CASM but higher operating costs with a bunch of empty seats. WN doesn't have the aircraft flexibility that most airlines have in the usa, I think that could be considered an achilles heel for them.

knope2001 · Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 79):
In the WN network STL is vastly inferior to MDW as a connect point. Thus, odd...

I think LIT-MDW and LIT-BWI may have been Wright casualties. No thru DAL traffic anymore and soft local traffic.

St Louis runs banks in the early morning and later PM, and by Southwest having LIT flights to and from those STL banks they are offering better business schedules to many large destinations.

MDW and BWI only run 1x/day, and both later in the afternoon. So options are limited and not always too business friendly. With early AM and later PM flights into the STL hub there are twice-daily business-friendly connections to a good swath of major cities.

Boston is a good example.

Current schedule via MDW, BWI or DAL
LIT-BOS
3:45pm – 11:20pm
6:35pm – 1:10am

BOS-LIT
11:10am – 5:55pm
5:00pm – 10:25pm
5:45pm – 10:55pm

New schedule via STL
LIT-BOS
6:25am – 12:00pm
5:25pm – 11:15pm

BOS-LIT
6:50am – 11:30am
6:00pm – 10:35pm

A few other things:
--It takes a little pressure off of MDW and BWI
--They know what traffic they are leaving on the table with lost 1-stop city pairs (LIT-MHT, LIT-ROC, etc.)
--Some of the local LIT-MDW and LIT-BWI traffic will be retained via STL, and they will gain back local LIT-STL traffic. That’s not a ton, but with the business-friendly schedule (something I don’t think WN ran in the market’s later years) it may be stimulated somewhat.

I’d categorize these LIT changes as more “interesting” than “obvious”, but I don’t think they are doomed to failure.

enilria · Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 80):

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 82):

Talk about "soft local traffic". I promise STL will be softer than MDW. Yes, there are a few markets with better connections, but many fewer markets. This is a retro move and I think they'll get retro loads in the 60s if they are lucky.

ryanrap1 · Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:05 pm

Any news for SAT as far as new routes or frequencies?

n471wn · Wed Jul 01, 2015 6:09 pm

Quoting mwh787 (Reply 75):

I echo, is there any more information on these frames? This should deserve its own thread. 20 frames would take care of the -500 retirements and more.

see the new thread on this topic

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