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ua2162
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HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:17 am

They're a great airline but I wonder if they've reached their potential.

The A321s on order will allow them to serve west coast markets from cities such as KOA.

However, I can't imagine them really expanding beyond the cities they already serve, especially within the international market.

My gut feeling is they have found their niche and they should continue to focus on this.

Thoughts?
 
INFINITI329
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:26 pm

what good is an airline that dosent grow?
I think the 321s should be used to launch smaller cities that can't support a 767 or 330. HA shouldn't be afraid to take a stab at mainland domestic market either, their service may just be superior enough to lure other airline faithful to their birds.

[Edited 2015-07-17 05:31:10]
 
hz747300
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:30 pm

Oh, please can they serve HKG! If one of the A321 takes over a route using the 767/330.
Keep on truckin'...
 
b747400erf
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:14 pm

They should fly to Europe and the Middle East   
 
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enilria
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:38 pm

I think HA is the most likely remaining airline to merge or be bought.
 
Abeam79
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:01 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
I think HA is the most likely remaining airline to merge or be bought.

I can see HA and B6 make a merger. I've heard friends at B6 say that is a mild rumor. B6 has the A321's and domestic markets HA needs, and HA has the widebodies and pacific market B6 can certainly benefit.
HA parks their A330's at B6's T5 in JFK so the B6 ground crew are all trained to handle A330, and the terminal is able to handle it. Both airlines are also high caterers to leisure markets. I think it would be a great unity.
Throw in VX or maybe Alaska and you would have quite a nice trifecta merger, primed and ready to take on the big 3 domestically and internationally.
 
cjpmaestro
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:13 pm

Quoting Abeam79 (Reply 5):
I can see HA and B6 make a merger. I've heard friends at B6 say that is a mild rumor. B6 has the A321's and domestic markets HA needs, and HA has the widebodies and pacific market B6 can certainly benefit.
HA parks their A330's at B6's T5 in JFK so the B6 ground crew are all trained to handle A330, and the terminal is able to handle it. Both airlines are also high caterers to leisure markets. I think it would be a great unity.
Throw in VX or maybe Alaska and you would have quite a nice trifecta merger, primed and ready to take on the big 3 domestically and internationally.

I've always thought HA and AS would be a good fit. Geographically and route-wise
 
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adamblang
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:22 pm

Worse comes to worst (they buy too many planes and the Hawai‘i market shrinks), they can always fly within the continental US, GUM-centric flying, and things like that. Anywhere there're traffic rights for US-flagged carriers is a potential market for them should they need to grow and Hawai‘i stagnate. (I doubt they'll do this any time in the foreseeable future but Alaska isn't just in Alaska and Southwest isn't just in the Southwest.)
 
EddieDude
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:30 pm

There were rumors some weeks ago that AM was considering flying to HNL from MEX (probably once or twice per week) using its Dreamliners. I have always wondered whether MEX-HNL could be profitable (without reaching a conclusion), but if it were to happen, I think HA would be in a much better position to launch this flight. I could see this route as a HA-operated flight with DL and AM codeshares. Any opinions?
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Cipango
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 2):
Oh, please can they serve HKG! If one of the A321 takes over a route using the 767/330.

I do think there is potential for HNL-HKG and maybe HNL-SIN with HA. SIN is less likely but HKG could be attempted in the future.
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flyby519
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:47 pm

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 6):

Quoting Abeam79 (Reply 5):
I can see HA and B6 make a merger. I've heard friends at B6 say that is a mild rumor. B6 has the A321's and domestic markets HA needs, and HA has the widebodies and pacific market B6 can certainly benefit.
HA parks their A330's at B6's T5 in JFK so the B6 ground crew are all trained to handle A330, and the terminal is able to handle it. Both airlines are also high caterers to leisure markets. I think it would be a great unity.
Throw in VX or maybe Alaska and you would have quite a nice trifecta merger, primed and ready to take on the big 3 domestically and internationally.

I've always thought HA and AS would be a good fit. Geographically and route-wise

HA is more Trans-Pacific centric than B6 needs in a partner. B6/VX make more sense in terms of business model, network, cost structure, etc. If/when HA merges with anyone it would make much more sense to tie up with AS.
 
dfwjim1
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:49 pm

This might be over the top but how about a AUS or SAT flight to/from HNL? Of course both areas are growing rapidly but is
there enough leisure/military/business traffic to make this work?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:55 pm

I would think DEN, SLC, and ABQ seem like expansion possibilities
 
jacobin777
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:55 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 1):
what good is an airline that dosent grow?

Stay profitable perhaps?

Quoting Abeam79 (Reply 5):
I've heard friends at B6 say that is a mild rumor.
Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 6):

I've always thought HA and AS would be a good fit.

I thought it was DL...  
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COSPN
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 4:15 pm

They have tried GUM and MNL before was a huge money burn
 
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compensateme
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 8):
There were rumors some weeks ago that AM was considering flying to HNL from MEX (probably once or twice per week) using its Dreamliners. I have always wondered whether MEX-HNL could be profitable (without reaching a conclusion), but if it were to happen, I think HA would be in a much better position to launch this flight. I could see this route as a HA-operated flight with DL and AM codeshares. Any opinions?


Just wishful thinking -- will not happen...

Hawaii lacks the mythical sentiment in Mexico that it has in Canada & the USA -- Mexicans simply do not share the same "drive" to go there. There's oodles of beach markets in Mexico with an array of hotels across the spectrum, most of whom offer steeply discounted prices to locals. Hawaii is an expensive place to visit, and the dollar trading for 16 pesos will make it even more expensive for Mexicans. Yes, Mexico City has a sizeable wealthy population... but few are traveling to Hawaii and a nonstop flight isn't likely going to pursue them.

Look what happened in Canada: the strong dollar chased the Canadians away from Hawaii to the point that WestJet & Air Canada were deeply discounting their flights (to Hawaii) across Canada.

[Edited 2015-07-17 09:48:29]
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TWA772LR
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 5:28 pm

I think when the big 3 merger dust settles in the next 5-10 years, they will go shopping for the smaller airlines. HA, VX, and F9 seem to be the perfect airlines to acquire for the sake of adding planes, adding routes, and eliminating competitors, and nothing more.
When wasn't America great?


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MAH4546
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 5:46 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 16):

I think when the big 3 merger dust settles in the next 5-10 years, they will go shopping for the smaller airlines. HA, VX, and F9 seem to be the perfect airlines to acquire for the sake of adding planes, adding routes, and eliminating competitors, and nothing more.

Airlines will be forced to break-up before the government allows more mergers.
a.
 
Max Q
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:02 pm

I think it's a shame they're not getting the A350.


That would have been the aircraft that could make European service possible and profitable.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
ripcordd
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:06 pm

The 321 could be used for SMF/SJC/LAS/ to other inter US markets for 1 stop flying to Hawaii they have great service
 
hkcanadaexpat
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:15 pm

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 2):
Oh, please can they serve HKG! If one of the A321 takes over a route using the 767/330.

Neither the 767 or the 330 has the legs to do HNL-HKG with significant loads. Otherwise CX/KA would be flying the route using theirs (they've looked at it many many times and determined the 777 is too much plane for the forecast traffic). Once HA receives its A330neos, those frames may have the numbers to make HKG work, i'm not sure.
A
 
PITrules
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:04 pm

I think PER-HNL would be a good fit:

-would be PER's only flight to the US
-more direct routing to LAX and SFO than via SYD
-one stop connections to other US west coast destinations instead of two stops currently required
-Hawaii remains popular with Australians
FLYi
 
aztrainer
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:37 pm

I would like for HA to add another flight from PHX to go directly to OGG. Every flight I have been on from PHX has been full and I think that they would win the fight with US/AA.

This is purely speculative on my part, but I wonder why HA and WN work out a code share. This would allow HA to have a vast network feeding their west cost destination and allow WN into the Hawai'i market without having to risk their own metal. Unlike with AS there is no crossing of flights. Asbestos underwear engaged.....
 
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cathay747
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:04 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 1):
I think the 321s should be used to launch smaller cities that can't support a 767 or 330.

That is exactly what HA has said they are going to use them for; this is no
speculation...Dunkerly has said this himself. And they'll also use them to
add a frequency here or there in existing 767/330 markets that can't justify
another widebody freq.

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 22):
I would like for HA to add another flight from PHX to go directly to OGG. Every flight I have been on from PHX has been full and I think that they would win the fight with US/AA.

That would be sweet, wouldn't it? And I agree...not just US/AA, but HA
could beat the pants off any of the big 3.
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MaxiAir
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:05 am

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 20):
Neither the 767 or the 330 has the legs to do HNL-HKG with significant loads. Otherwise CX/KA would be flying the route using theirs (they've looked at it many many times and determined the 777 is too much plane for the forecast traffic). Once HA receives its A330neos, those frames may have the numbers to make HKG work, i'm not sure.
A

You must be kidding ? It might be at the Edge for a standard A333 (as CX does operate them), but Lufthansa is doing FRA-DFW (8300km), and HNL-HKG is only 9000km, so yes one additional hour, thats probably about what the 242t A333 or at least the 339neo would be able to manage without restrictions, but with Hawaiian we are talking about the A332, which is quoted with 2100km more range than the A333 (13400 vs 11300km), so 9000km's are impossible ? Even the SIN option is "only" 10800km.
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MIflyer12
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:20 am

Quoting cathay747 (Reply 23):
Quoting aztrainer (Reply 22):
I would like for HA to add another flight from PHX to go directly to OGG. Every flight I have been on from PHX has been full and I think that they would win the fight with US/AA.

That would be sweet, wouldn't it? And I agree...not just US/AA, but HA
could beat the pants off any of the big 3.

AA has a lot more feed into PHX than HA can conceivably get for beyond traffic thru HNL or OGG. I wouldn't bet against AA at PHX. Whether there's enough traffic for both to exist at PHX is less clear.
 
hnl-jack
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:39 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 25):
AA has a lot more feed into PHX than HA can conceivably get for beyond traffic thru HNL or OGG. I wouldn't bet against AA at PHX. Whether there's enough traffic for both to exist at PHX is less clear.

At the current levels, both US and HA seem to be doing OK, but before HA adds additional capacity or flights from PHX, I think they'll play wait and see what AA does with the market. If AA decides it wants to take on HA they have could present some real problems for my favorite airline. On the other hand, if AA decides it doesn't need a major hub in PHX and cuts back, HA might upgage to an A-330 or add an A-321 next year. In any case, I think it will be at least a year before we see any changes in PHX by HA.
 
F9Animal
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:58 am

Quoting ua2162 (Thread starter):
They're a great airline but I wonder if they've reached their potential.

The A321s on order will allow them to serve west coast markets from cities such as KOA.

However, I can't imagine them really expanding beyond the cities they already serve, especially within the international market.

My gut feeling is they have found their niche and they should continue to focus on this.

Thoughts?

Plenty of growth opportunity. If you think about it, HA could easily build up on the mainland, and connect to cities that offer service to Hawaii.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
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RWA380
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 4:11 am

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 6):
I've always thought HA and AS would be a good fit. Geographically and route-wise

The combined route map is very complimentary, the fleet types are A & B but workable, 738's flying HNL-NAN & 330's flying ANC-HND & other adds could be offered, it would explain more LAX buildup by AS, They would need a widebody on a red-eye HNL-SEA to catch all the morning departures from SEA.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
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Sevensixtyseven
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 5:50 am

Quoting hnl-jack (Reply 26):

I doubt the A321 would be able to get off the ground for the 2600 mile route in the Arizona summer heat.

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 22):

The biggest roadblock I see to this is the early departures/late arrivals of HA's North America flights. Take HA35/36, for example. There are very few WN arrivals (if any) that get into PHX in time for the 8:00am departure, and even fewer WN departures that leave PHX after the arrival of HA 36. The only 3 flights I can see working for connects with WN are HA's evening LAS and LAX flights, and the 1:55am LAS departure. Otherwise, I actually think your idea is a good one. It opens up a massive amount of feed for HA, and WN has zero risk with the high cost of flying to Hawaii. The only two roadblocks I can see is syncing the arrivals and departures to better connect flights, and co-locating in the same terminals where possible to make transfers easier.
I call the dusty desert my home. :)
 
covert
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:25 am

Quoting MaxiAir (Reply 24):

Sure, but the CASM would be way higher because the A332 has less seats. Range is only one of many factors that go into route economics. Realize that DFW-FRA has potential business traffic to offset the bargain fares that average people pay to sit in the back. HNL does not command that kind of business market.
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bunumuring
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 7:42 am

Quoting PITrules (Reply 21):
I think PER-HNL would be a good fit:
-would be PER's only flight to the US
-more direct routing to LAX and SFO than via SYD
-one stop connections to other US west coast destinations instead of two stops currently required
-Hawaii remains popular with Australians

I think Hawaiian could increase services to Australia, but not substantially. Perth-US passengers would mainly go through Sydney or possibly Auckland (on Air New Zealand) or Melbourne (on Qantas/VA/United). Perth-Honolulu would be a very risky route in my opinion, but possible as a 'niche' market. I doubt very very much it would ever be anything more a few flights per week... And would the A330neo have the range?

Hawaii and Hawaiian both have strong reputations in Australia. Hawaiian could do more to market one-stop flights from Sydney to secondary US markets that it flies to out of Honolulu, but transfers at Honolulu Airport are not the best I believe. Streamlining the transfer process and marketing better the flight possibilities between Australia and secondary US cities (with the added bonus of a Hawaii stopover) could provide Hawaiian with some growth potential.

Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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chrisp390
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:28 am

HA doesn't even serve Canada yet, one of the largest markets to Hawaii. There is a huge market there for them and it still baffles me why they have not tried yet
 
PITrules
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:42 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 31):
Perth-US passengers would mainly go through Sydney or possibly Auckland (on Air New Zealand) or Melbourne (on Qantas/VA/United).

Well that's their only option currently, unless one considers transiting an East Asia hub to the US via the long way.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 31):
Perth-Honolulu would be a very risky route in my opinion, but possible as a 'niche' market. I doubt very very much it would ever be anything more a few flights per week..

PER-US is not a matter of "if", but "when". IIRC the city of Perth is now about the same size as BNE was when it re-established a link to LAX about 10 years ago via QF, with a 747 no less. The only down side for PER is longer stage length.

I agree it would be a niche market for Hawaiian at a few times weekly to start; but isn't that the frequency they started BNE at? And even SYD when they decided to re-enter the Australia market? Those two ramped up rather quickly, and MEL might come before PER, but I don't think PER is that far fetched in the long run.
FLYi
 
wedgetail737
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:23 pm

I think their A321's could be used to change a lot of the seasonal flying to a year-round.
 
aztrainer
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 29):
The biggest roadblock I see to this is the early departures/late arrivals of HA's North America flights. Take HA35/36, for example. There are very few WN arrivals (if any) that get into PHX in time for the 8:00am departure, and even fewer WN departures that leave PHX after the arrival of HA 36. The only 3 flights I can see working for connects with WN are HA's evening LAS and LAX flights, and the 1:55am LAS departure. Otherwise, I actually think your idea is a good one. It opens up a massive amount of feed for HA, and WN has zero risk with the high cost of flying to Hawaii. The only two roadblocks I can see is syncing the arrivals and departures to better connect flights, and co-locating in the same terminals where possible to make transfers easier.

Very good point and I really did not think of it in that terms. I think if HA pushes the departure back an hour to 09:00 that would allow enough feed for the flight and they would still get into HNL at 12:30. If HA and WN could work out a deal, I think it would be a great partnership. This could also allow another flight from PHX to OGG with the increase in traffic.

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 29):
I doubt the A321 would be able to get off the ground for the 2600 mile route in the Arizona summer heat.

I also thought that the A321 was on the edge of being able to be used to PHX and LAS due to heat. I also thought that the main use of the A321 sub-fleet was to move the 767's and 330's from the west cost destinations to deeper in the US as well as their Asian destinations. Airbus id saying that the A321-NEO/LR has a range up to 4,000nm

"The A321LR – a new variant of Airbus’ A321neo, deliveries of which will begin in 2019 – will have the longest range of any single-aisle jetliner, able to fly routes of up to 4,000 nm. It is ideally suited to transatlantic routes, and enables airlines to tap into new long-haul markets that were not previously accessible with current single-aisle aircraft."

Quoting cathay747 (Reply 23):
That would be sweet, wouldn't it? And I agree...not just US/AA, but HA could beat the pants off any of the big 3.

Agree

Quoting hnl-jack (Reply 26):
At the current levels, both US and HA seem to be doing OK, but before HA adds additional capacity or flights from PHX, I think they'll play wait and see what AA does with the market. If AA decides it wants to take on HA they have could present some real problems for my favorite airline. On the other hand, if AA decides it doesn't need a major hub in PHX and cuts back, HA might upgage to an A-330 or add an A-321 next year. In any case, I think it will be at least a year before we see any changes in PHX by HA.

I do not see PHX getting a A-330 for a long time. With the signed agreement with DL to provide service to their 767 it will be 767 until it gets phase out IMHO. I have tracked the flight to PHX and they rotate some of the planes on multiple days. 588HA has been HA35/36 for the last three days. My last flight landed and there was a MX truck waiting to start working on 587HA when we landed and it was the second trip in a row for that frame.

I also can say as a person that has used both, HA has a better product. I would love to see the metric for HA-35 and the island where most of the travelers go to after landing in HNL. With the amount of people in Arizona that fly to OGG that could be a sustainable flight.
 
edmountain
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 7:51 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 33):
PER-US is not a matter of "if", but "when". IIRC the city of Perth is now about the same size as BNE was when it re-established a link to LAX about 10 years ago via QF, with a 747 no less. The only down side for PER is longer stage length.

I agree it would be a niche market for Hawaiian at a few times weekly to start; but isn't that the frequency they started BNE at? And even SYD when they decided to re-enter the Australia market? Those two ramped up rather quickly, and MEL might come before PER, but I don't think PER is that far fetched in the long run.

I'd be very surprised if non-stop Perth to US flights start in our lifetime. PER-LAX would be far and away the longest flight in the world, not even sure if it's possible. PER-HNL market would be very small and overflies multiple connecting points.

I also don't think you can extrapolate from BNE to PER; they're very different markets. For one thing, although Perth and Brisbane city populations are close, the South East Queensland catchment that BNE serves is far bigger than Perth: it has about 3 million people, 50% larger than Perth and more than all of Western Australia. In addition, BNE is a logical connection point when coming from North America so that adds to the BNE demand.
 
woodsboy
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:28 pm

The 321 would be perfect for Alaska flying
HNL- ANC, FAI
OGG- ANC
KOA- ANC
KOA- FAI
Alaska is so ripe for more direct Hawaii service. AS never discounts (okay, rarely and not very much) ANC-HNL flights and they are chronically full. Just try and book one from ANC or FAI and 9 times out of ten they will give you a route from FAI-ANC-SEA-PDX-LIH or something ridiculous like that.
In all the years AS has been flying ANC-HNL I have had ONE segment of one trip that flew direct no matter if I bought tickets 7 months ahead or two months. In Nov I fly FAI-LIH and return. Routing is FAI-SEA-PDX-LIH. Return, LIH- SJC-PDX-SEA-FAI. There was no choice for Anchorage direct.
When you get on an HA flight from KOA to HNL to connect with an AS flight, you know half the plane because they are Alaskans, that is hardly an exxageration.
HA, please come to Alaska, help us fight AS!!
 
Sevensixtyseven
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 4:10 am

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 35):

If my memory serves me right...HA used to fly HA 35/36 like so...12:30pm or so departure, 4:30pm arrival in HNL, then a 10-11pm departure for a morning arrival, they used to fly this for the codeshare they had with America West, before they got the 757s ETOPS capable and flew everything themselves. It worked because they could scoop up all the East Coast, Midwest, and Mountain West arrivals well in time to connect, and then HA36 got everyone to PHX in time to fly anywhere in the system. One thing is for certain, if they ever did such a thing, they would have to go double daily to HNL out of necessity or one to OGG as an addition, HA35/36 seem like they go out full or close to it every single day.
I call the dusty desert my home. :)
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:16 am

With PER's mining boom cooling off quite quickly, such markets as HNL are a dream at best. The length of flight and the yields would not be enough to support it, even at the best of times.

If HA was to launch another Australian flight it would likely be MEL, but with the lower AUD making US travel far less affordable, I just cant see the need, especially as JQ is already on the MEL-HNL route.

Given the struggles that the capacity increases have produced on BNE-HNL, with JQ jumping on that route also, I could see either one of those carriers pulngli out soon too. HNL is a market that did very well out of the higher AUD, but as that dissipates the demand may well cool off as time goes on.
 
BeachBoy
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:05 am

RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 4:08 pm

As a local Hawaii resident I have such mix feelings about HA's expansion. On one hand, I really want them to succeed and I feel the state of Hawaii should do much more to facilitate their success. On the other hand, I'm tired of subsidizing their expansion by paying ridiculous prices for interisland and Las Vegas flights. I have a feeling the majority of their international flights are not profitable, but it's an investment in the future of the company and I know we (the people of Hawaii) still benefit w/ the increased visitor arrivals.

As far as their expansion goes, look at their 3 main markets:
INTERNATIONAL
I think the next international expansion phase will be when NRT gets pre-clearance facilities which will allow HA to offer NRT-KOA-NRT, NRT-OGG-HNL-NRT, and NRT-LIH-HNL-NRT and start a NRT-HNL-NRT flight as well.
They may also start serving smaller international markets like MAJ, RAR, APW, YVR (I know it's a big market, but not big enough to support daily widebody service because of AC and WS) when the A321s arrive.
I just can't think of any other international market that can support nonstop service relying just on O&D because as many posters have said, there are many other closer and cheaper beach/tropical destinations in Asia. In addition, the secondary Japanese markets also compete against Japan's very efficient bullet train system that makes it difficult to charge a premium for nonstop service to makeup for lower LFs.

INTERISLAND
No real expansion opportunities except maybe JHM and possibly connecting the dots using 'Ohana like KOA-LIH.

US MAINLAND
As others have said, the next expansion phase will be when the A321s arrive allowing HA to start direct flights to the other islands and increase frequency on existing routes. As G4's experience showed, there aren't a lot of new markets on the West Coast that can support nonstop service to Hawaii.
As other posters have said, no real opportunities east of PHX except for maybe BOS w/ a B6 codeshare unless they workout a codeshare w/ WN allowing for flights to BWI since runways at HOU and MDW are too short.

The current biggest limitation to their expansion is the lack of hotel capacity on Oahu and lack of "affordable" hotel accommodations on the other islands. I still wish HA all the best.

[Edited 2015-07-19 09:18:31]
 
User avatar
cathay747
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 5:41 pm

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 35):

I do not see PHX getting a A-330 for a long time. With the signed agreement with DL to provide service to their 767 it will be 767 until it gets phase out IMHO. I have tracked the flight to PHX and they rotate some of the planes on multiple days. 588HA has been HA35/36 for the last three days. My last flight landed and there was a MX truck waiting to start working on 587HA when we landed and it was the second trip in a row for that frame.

I also can say as a person that has used both, HA has a better product. I would love to see the metric for HA-35 and the island where most of the travelers go to after landing in HNL. With the amount of people in Arizona that fly to OGG that could be a sustainable flight.

Agreed on all counts sadly...I'd really love to have PHX upgauged to the 332
before I ever fly the route (likely Dec. 2016) but I'm sure not holding my breath.

Quoting BeachBoy (Reply 40):
As far as their expansion goes, look at their 3 main markets:
INTERNATIONAL
I think the next international expansion phase will be when NRT gets pre-clearance facilities which will allow HA to offer NRT-KOA-NRT, NRT-OGG-HNL-NRT, and NRT-LIH-HNL-NRT and start a NRT-HNL-NRT flight as well.
They may also start serving smaller international markets like MAJ, RAR, APW, YVR (I know it's a big market, but not big enough to support daily widebody service because of AC and WS) when the A321s arrive.
I just can't think of any other international market that can support nonstop service relying just on O&D because as many posters have said, there are many other closer and cheaper beach/tropical destinations in Asia. In addition, the secondary Japanese markets also compete against Japan's very efficient bullet train system that makes it difficult to charge a premium for nonstop service to makeup for lower LFs.

INTERISLAND
No real expansion opportunities except maybe JHM and possibly connecting the dots using 'Ohana like KOA-LIH.

US MAINLAND
As others have said, the next expansion phase will be when the A321s arrive allowing HA to start direct flights to the other islands and increase frequency on existing routes. As G4's experience showed, there aren't a lot of new markets on the West Coast that can support nonstop service to Hawaii.
As other posters have said, no real opportunities east of PHX except for maybe BOS w/ a B6 codeshare unless they workout a codeshare w/ WN allowing for flights to BWI since runways at HOU and MDW are too short.

The current biggest limitation to their expansion is the lack of hotel capacity on Oahu and lack of "affordable" hotel accommodations on the other islands. I still wish HA all the best.

All VERY good points; I forgot about the U.S. pre-clearance for NRT, that
really could be a boon for them. Although I do think there are some new
west coast markets they could make work, although not necessarily daily...
RNO, ABQ, ONT come to mind, and at least during the winter, some one-
stops like BIL-BOI-HNL. And of course they could even compete with AS
and launch ANC-HNL. And I really am thinking that the 321neo's could
handle PHX-OGG.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2500
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting cathay747 (Reply 41):

How about Stockton and/or Fresno also?
 
aztrainer
Posts: 713
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:17 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:44 pm

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 38):
If my memory serves me right...HA used to fly HA 35/36 like so...12:30pm or so departure, 4:30pm arrival in HNL, then a 10-11pm departure for a morning arrival, they used to fly this for the codeshare they had with America West, before they got the 757s ETOPS capable and flew everything themselves. It worked because they could scoop up all the East Coast, Midwest, and Mountain West arrivals well in time to connect, and then HA36 got everyone to PHX in time to fly anywhere in the system. One thing is for certain, if they ever did such a thing, they would have to go double daily to HNL out of necessity or one to OGG as an addition, HA35/36 seem like they go out full or close to it every single day.

HA-35 was always a 08:00 to 09:00 departure. US has moved their departures up to match HA. You are correct about HA-36 and its departure times from HNL. When I first started to fly it, they would leave 15:00HST and land at 23:45MST.

Quoting cathay747 (Reply 41):
And I really am thinking that the 321neo's could handle PHX-OGG.

It could handle the traffic as right now US/AA has a monopoly of two 752's a day. I still do not think that they will use an A321 to PHX, but depending on the time of departure temperature may not be a problem. The one time I flew US we were weight restricted for a 10:30 departure in June.

With the A321, I can see them going to a lot of smaller airports in California.
 
User avatar
cathay747
Posts: 1528
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:53 pm

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 42):
How about Stockton and/or Fresno also?

Possible, but aren't those 2 of the cities G4 tried and failed? If they
couldn't make it work, HA as a full-service airline would be hard-
pressed in my humble opinion.

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 43):
It could handle the traffic as right now US/AA has a monopoly of two 752's a day. I still do not think that they will use an A321 to PHX, but depending on the time of departure temperature may not be a problem. The one time I flew US we were weight restricted for a 10:30 departure in June.

With the A321, I can see them going to a lot of smaller airports in California.

Oh I didn't mean traffic-wise, but performance. But damn, if a 752 was
restricted for a 1030 departure, then my thinking about the 321neo might
not be correct. Oh well, we'll eventually see how things play out.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
910A
Posts: 1898
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2015 2:11 am

RE: HA Growth Potential

Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:31 am

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 43):
HA-35 was always a 08:00 to 09:00 departure. US has moved their departures up to match HA. You are correct about HA-36 and its departure times from HNL. When I first started to fly it, they would leave 15:00HST and land at 23:45MST.

No your information is incorrect.

HAWAIIAN AIRLINES CELEBRATES
FIRST PHOENIX FLIGHT
Passengers emerging from Gate 30 at Honolulu Airport were greeted with leis and Hawaiian music yesterday after Hawaiian Airlines' first direct flight from Phoenix. The new route will generate an additional 1,764 seats per week to the state. The daily flight leaves Phoenix at 10:45 a.m. and arrives in Honolulu at 2:20 p.m. The return flight departs Honolulu at 10:15 p.m. and arrives in Phoenix the following morning at 7:15 a.m. The schedules of both flights will be adjusted Oct. 27 to accommodate the change in daylight-saving time.

http://archives.starbulletin.com/2002/10/12/business/bizbriefs.html

When HA started the times had to work with feed with HP.
 
Prost
Posts: 2601
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:54 am

Isn't the concrete block around HA's ankle right now the strong US dollar? I imagine routes that looked great on paper 5-7 years look abysmal right now. In July 2010 $1 = ¥94. July 2015 $1 = ¥124. Now, Japan is just one country, but when a Hawaiian vacation has increased 30%, it's going to have an impact. It makes sense for HA to cultivate Hawaii as a luxurious vacation for Chinese visitors, but the visa rules are an impediment. The US mainland seems to be the way to go, and the A321 seems like the perfect plane.

I wonder if the A338 will even get anywhere near their designed range limits? If the dollar remains strong, perhaps a deferral or swap (more A321s) would be in order.
 
Sevensixtyseven
Posts: 262
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:33 am

RE: HA Growth Potential

Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:18 am

Quoting 910A (Reply 45):

Thank you. I knew they didn't leave so early with the HP codeshare. I remember when it was a 15:00 departure, 23:45 arrival however.
I call the dusty desert my home. :)
 
aztrainer
Posts: 713
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:17 pm

RE: HA Growth Potential

Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 46):
Isn't the concrete block around HA's ankle right now the strong US dollar? I imagine routes that looked great on paper 5-7 years look abysmal right now. In July 2010 $1 = ¥94. July 2015 $1 = ¥124. Now, Japan is just one country, but when a Hawaiian vacation has increased 30%, it's going to have an impact. It makes sense for HA to cultivate Hawaii as a luxurious vacation for Chinese visitors, but the visa rules are an impediment. The US mainland seems to be the way to go, and the A321 seems like the perfect plane.

Yes, when I was on Kauai two weeks ago and they were talking about the tourist numbers they were speculating on the increase cost to many of the Asian markets. When the US economy was down they were getting a great deal to Hawai'i, but now it is not the case and they are staying closer to home.

Quoting 910A (Reply 45):

I stand corrected.... The interesting thing about the times is that they seem to have been mirrored by US with their Hawai'i flights.
 
910A
Posts: 1898
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2015 2:11 am

RE: HA Growth Potential

Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 47):
I remember when it was a 15:00 departure, 23:45 arrival however.

Since all the other HA flights left at 1pm, I wonder if PHX left later since they shared the gate with B6.

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