Think about what F is today. And where it's heading. To compete in F, airlines are going to have to offer near-fully private suites. That really cant't be supported from more a handful of global Alpha cities (like New York and London). There are probably about a dozen cities worldwide that can support long-haul F regularly. And then, only to the other cities in that group.

Beyond that, it'll be the now standard lie-flat J.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 200): Think about what F is today. And where it's heading. To compete in F, airlines are going to have to offer near-fully private suites. That really cant't be supported from more a handful of global Alpha cities (like New York and London). There are probably about a dozen cities worldwide that can support long-haul F regularly. And then, only to the other cities in that group. Beyond that, it'll be the now standard lie-flat J.

You are correct, J seats have improved to a level that is comparable to F class of years ago. I would imagine we are seeing an evolution of the premium classes. As you posted you have to offer something different than just a comfortable lie-flat seat in F. Many airline offer this as J. Just look at SQ J seat on the A380. That is a F seat on most airlines around the world. The trend seems to be following a comfortable J seat with aisle access. If your J cabin doesn't scream premium enough (looking at you EK and 7-abreast J), then having the option for your premium flyer to upgrade is a good idea. If you offer a great J seat and service then the option of F doesn't seem that needy.

If you offer neither a good J seat or service, then you discontinue F and make sure your J flyers aren't aware that they could be getting something better...   

Quoting United1 (Reply 194): Taking a look at LAX except for Norwegian and Transerro every transatlantic flight is operated either as a JV with a US airline or is part of an alliance. European carriers don't seem to dominate there either.

It's not the same as operating its own aircraft. JV, and alliances in particular are increasingly weak. More and more airlines are looking for just bilateral agreements.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 196): There are very few places for which connecting on the West Coast to get to Europe makes sense, while loads of viable connections are available in Europe. It's the same reason foreign carriers dominate JNB and SYD; they can use their geographic advantages to generate a lot more connecting traffic. The same applies here.

I know the reasons and they are quite valid when flying to Europe from west coast. Only "quite" because of the belief that stealing traffic from another market is seen as something negative (lower yields) while this traffic can also be an opportunity to upsize the network and attract more premium demand.

Quoting nry (Reply 198): The ME3 have not only a geographic advantage but also a population density advantage. Less competition from adjacent countries to create their own megahub.

I would disagree on that. It's the top3 by themselves who made their potential competitors obsolete (Kuwait, Bahrein, Saudia Arabian, etc.) and they are very much in competition with some other hubs in Asia and Europe

Quoting nry (Reply 198): You could say that the Pacific already had its "EK" and has evolved beyond that to point-to-point, thanks to the 787 and 350XWB....

Every transpacific route needs the connecting traffic. But the airline with the most volumes of traffic will have more routes, more flights and ultimately more premium pax. Something Asian airlines have learned from the ME3 is that the winner takes it all, including your local premium traffic you thought was protected with your "point to point" flights and code share partners.

Quoting Aither (Reply 202): It's not the same as operating its own aircraft. JV, and alliances in particular are increasingly weak. More and more airlines are looking for just bilateral agreements.

JVs are absolutely like operating your own aircraft....UA/AC/LH Group operate a metal neutral alliance on transatlantic flights. It doesn't matter which airline operates the flight as all of the airlines split the profits/revenue from the flight.

I'm not sure if you understand what a JV is....those bilateral that you speak of are for the most part JVs.

Quoting traindoc (Reply 199): You are right on target about the "new" UA and the "old" CO. The leadership does not seem to care about either pax or employees. Actually, why not rid of passengers as well. They are such a pain in the you know what! Then you can reaaly cut your labor costs! Even better, just get a fleet of Cessnas, and only carry the Global Services customers.

Even some of the Globals are fed up with the Smisek shenanigans.

Quoting tcfc424 (Reply 190): I cringe when I get on an airplane and hear that its a PMCO crew. That means I am not getting any service and anything I do get will be bitter.

Take it from a 1K and someone who has never been anything less than MP Gold since 1998...this is the truest comment ever!!!

Quoting United1 (Reply 203): I'm not sure if you understand what a JV is....those bilateral that you speak of are for the most part JVs

I meant bilaterals outside the alliance

Why are PMCO crew so bitter vs PMUA crew?

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 179): If you think about it, It's all going to come back to three class eventually, albeit different splits.

EXACTLY! Except now, the airlines are going to have corporations paying for their most expensive inventory instead of their second most expensive. As most corporate policies with large companies allows Execs to travel J over 8+ hr flights

Quoting Aither (Reply 202): would disagree on that. It's the top3 by themselves who made their potential competitors obsolete (Kuwait, Bahrein, Saudia Arabian, etc.) and they are very much in competition with some other hubs in Asia and Europe

Quoting Aither (Reply 202): Quoting Aither,reply=202: would disagree on that. It's the top3 by themselves who made their potential competitors obsolete (Kuwait, Bahrein, Saudia Arabian, etc.) and they are very much in competition with some other hubs in Asia and Europe

A strategy does not exist in a vacuum - each market situation and time period is different. There was a unique opportunity (rise of India, etc.) along with its unique geographic advantages, no 787/350XWB, and the increase in oil prices that gave the ME3 the ability grow.

What's the equivalent market situation in the Pacific?

Blindly copying a strategy to another situation is not a good idea (see Microsoft+Nokia).

Quoting Aither (Reply 206): I meant bilaterals outside the alliance

Not really any difference whether they are outside or inside of an alliance...a JV is a JV. QF has a JV with EK and will have one with AA as well....both serve different markets and are important to QF for different reasons but QF doesn't care that AA is in Oneworld and EK is not.

A little off topic but it has to do with the A380 and US3 and the JVs. From Skywriter today:

"“That [A380] is a product for state-subsidized airlines, or airlines that have it and wish they didn’t.” Delta’s Richard Anderson has called it “uneconomic” and even said that joint-venture partner “Air France does have A380s, and we have figured out how … [to] keep the ill effects of that airplane out of the joint venture.”
http://www.skywriteraviation.aero/20...airbus-hasnt-launched-the-a380neo/

I really wanted to focus on this last part. How do you think a US carrier can keep the 'ill effects' of the aircraft outside of its joint venture?

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 211): I really wanted to focus on this last part. How do you think a US carrier can keep the 'ill effects' of the aircraft outside of its joint venture?

As the airlines coordinate scheduling I would assume that DL/AF and UA/LH only schedule the aircraft on routes that can support the traffic and make the JV $$$.

ie AF doesn't get to run an hourly A380 shuttle from CDG-JFK just because they can....

Quoting United1 (Reply 212): ie AF doesn't get to run an hourly A380 shuttle from CDG-JFK just because they can....

So you believe that they are flying it to LAX, JFK, MIA, and IAD (I believe) only when they are not taking another frequency off of the table and there was excess demand that was not being captured? It sounds hairy. I think you must be right in some fashion but I just can't see how they can prevent any impact from the airplane not just the negative. And if it makes the JV more money at certain times then I don't get the Anderson quote as he is pretty much saying its a loser.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback, just trying to get my head around it.

tortugamon

Quoting ScottB (Reply 187): Why? UA is the customer -- is Airbus going to walk away from future RFPs because they were insulted by Smisek's view of the A380? Maybe the UA guys are tired of the Airbus and/or Amedeo guys trying to peddle them A380s they don't want and are unlikely to ever want.

Contrary to popular Belief??
Airbus and the Airbus Reps are Thrilled We're the US Launch customer for the A350-1000
They're making every effort to get us prepared for the airplane and are sending reps to our Maintenance Control office in Chicago to see how we do things.
We've had the A320 for a LOT of years already.
They also see us operating the B777 and Getting More of the model, along side of the B787 and Getting More of the model.
Other than they'd like us to have segregated by model maintenance crews (which WILL Not Happen.)
They know we understand the Airbus Philosophy and we're committed to being Good at what We do.
In the USA Maintenance Techs are NOT going to be "Type rated" So? the Fleet Maintenance Controllers have to be subject matter experts..
That's the only place where we might Differ with the Europeans. The nomenclature of the Airplane might Appear Different in Name
But There's NOT a lot of difference in operation. As all of our airplanes in the near future will ONLY have 2 engines..
Operating and maintaining the A350-1000 along side of the B777-200, -200ER, and -300ER will be a challenge.
Just as operating the A319's and A320's right now present a challenge along side of operating the B737-700's,-800's ,-900's and -900er's..
It's going to be a "Wing Ding Doodle" and a lot of Work. But unlike all of that Corporate BS?
Maintenance is where the "Rubber meets the Road". We Don't stand on a lot of Ceremony.
Your Airplane is either On the Gate with the Maintenance Release posted for the Flight Crew and the Cabin Ready for Passengers?
Or? It's NOT!!
And If it's NOT? There's Not a LOT to SAY!! Not bunch of Excuses to Give.
We Missed the BOAT!! I do NOT intend to be "Missing the Boat", and neither do any of my fellow Controllers, Maintenance Supervisors, Engineers, Inspectors and Mechanics.
This is going to be GREAT!! It will Not ONLY be SHOWTIME for the Different Models? But it will be "Showtime"..for the Different Engine Builders
We'll Be operating the PW4000 series The GE90-Series, and the Rolls Trent Engines along with the CFM-56 and the IAE V2500's..
We'll See in REAL Time which engines Bring it??, And which ones Can't... This is going to be GOOD!!
Ron.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 211): How do you think a US carrier can keep the 'ill effects' of the aircraft outside of its joint venture?

From a contractual perspective, all they would need is a provision in the JV agreement that the profit/loss of any A380 ops will NOT be included in the aggregate profit to be allocated proportionately (by capacity contribution) to each of the JV partners. Then it's just a simple matter of record keeping.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 211):

I wonder if these attacks on the A380 are partly politically motivated by the fact that over 50% of the in service fleet are operated by the ME3. Also when he says the ill effects, what exactly does he mean? Is it simply the costs of operating the plane, or something else.
An A380 NEO will print money for the likes of EK and make it even harder for the US3 to compete against them.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 214):

I'll have my A&P soon... Sounds like I can learn allot verses staying with AA as a mech though they have a similar lineup... Scared of United because of how they treat they're Employees

Quoting RandWKOP (Reply 216): I wonder if these attacks on the A380 are partly politically motivated by the fact that over 50% of the in service fleet are operated by the ME3.

Most definitely. He'd hardly be critical if AF/KL were making planeloads of money flying A380s...

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 215): From a contractual perspective, all they would need is a provision in the JV agreement that the profit/loss of any A380 ops will NOT be included in the aggregate profit to be allocated proportionately (by capacity contribution) to each of the JV partners. Then it's just a simple matter of record keeping.

Quoting RandWKOP (Reply 216): Also when he says the ill effects, what exactly does he mean? Is it simply the costs of operating the plane, or something else.

I call bunk. Imagine the complications to a metal neutral JV when you then start dictating or excluding specific types. The airline now loses flexibility and may have to dedicate a sub-optimal aircraft to the route. Next, they have to use the A380 on another route where it may not be optimal. And then there's the loss of easy adjustment for seasonality. etc.

He's either referring to AF/KL limiting their purchases of the A380. Or to jointly negotiating the deployment of the A380 to specific routes where they can maximize profits. The real tragedy of his comment is that he proved Tim Clark's point about alliances being too constricting. So now we know DL gets to dictate what airplanes AF/KL buys and where they fly them.

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 215): From a contractual perspective, all they would need is a provision in the JV agreement that the profit/loss of any A380 ops will NOT be included in the aggregate profit to be allocated proportionately (by capacity contribution) to each of the JV partners. Then it's just a simple matter of record keeping.

Will be ineresting to see when they share a route and everyone wants to get on the A380 and less on the smaller delta Planes. Will AF get extra money?

Flyglobal

Quoting United Airline (Reply 129): I believe QF, BA, LH, AF, CX, SQ, MH, TG etc will continue to offer F class in the long run.

The problem stated is that the quality of the Global First for United is far less superior to that of European and Asian Carriers. You just can't compare the products offered on LX, LH, BA, and AF First Class to that of United. I'd much prefer to fly any of the carriers above in J over UA F if the choice gets to it.

Cheers,
KLAXAirport   

Quoting YTZ (Reply 218): I call bunk. Imagine the complications to a metal neutral JV when you then start dictating or excluding specific types. The airline now loses flexibility and may have to dedicate a sub-optimal aircraft to the route. Next, they have to use the A380 on another route where it may not be optimal. And then there's the loss of easy adjustment for seasonality. etc. He's either referring to AF/KL limiting their purchases of the A380. Or to jointly negotiating the deployment of the A380 to specific routes where they can maximize profits. The real tragedy of his comment is that he proved Tim Clark's point about alliances being too constricting. So now we know DL gets to dictate what airplanes AF/KL buys and where they fly them.

Not at all true -- under the contractual provision I was describing, AF wouldn't be prohibited from operating the A380 on JV routes; it just wouldn't share revenue or costs on those flights. The airline has full freedom to operate whatever it wants, whenever it wants ... but it bears all the financial risk of flying that airplane instead of sharing risk with its JV partners. No serious airline would sign a JV agreement that allowed its partners to dictate what airplanes it could or couldn't buy or fly.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 219): Will be ineresting to see when they share a route and everyone wants to get on the A380 and less on the smaller delta Planes. Will AF get extra money?

Yes, in the Northern Hemisphere summer, when there's enough demand to fill an A380 profitably. But guess who eats the losses when those airplanes fly half-full or with super-low average fare in the winter? Not DL.

For those of you who want to continue to fly the friendly skies, you are cordially invited to pursue your travel by clicking on this link:

UA CEO: No More Intl F Class, No A380, 77X - P2 (by American 767 Jul 24 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Safe travel,

Ben Soriano