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frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3885
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:02 am

Bayesian mathematicians now have another major data point(?) and are likely working with oceanographers. Expect a newly defined search area.
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edmountain
Posts: 235
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:00 pm

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:13 am

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 229):
NYT says based on this discovery, the search area is likely too far south.

"Erik van Sebille, an oceanographer specializing in ocean currents who did extensive computer simulations last year of where Flight 370 wreckage might float, said that it was possible that pieces might now be reaching Réunion, more than 3,000 miles from the plane’s last known location.

But the plane would have had to enter the water off northwestern Australia, he said. "

"Currents in the Indian Ocean move fairly quickly from east to west near the Equator, Mr. van Sebille said, but those to the south move more slowly. Debris entering the ocean in the primary search area would be much less likely to have drifted as far as Réunion by now."
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 236):
It didn't take long for such claims to come out.

Regardless of whether or not this part belongs to 9M-MRO, the search for the main wreckage site will still be a mammoth task and may never be successful.

I don't think Mr. van Sebille is some random joe hacker trying to make a name for himself my making "such claims" on the Interwebs; I think you should give him some credit. If one single finding can significantly redefine the search area then I'd say that's important.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 236):
Moreover, determining the best area to search will still just be some kind of educated guess based on assumptions.

What would you propose, uneducated guesses based on doctrine?
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:17 am

A central question becomes the status of the engines. The flaperon is located directly behind the engine/mounting. I suppose the engine could shear off and easily be the cause of the damage to the trailing edge. On the other hand, I would've expected more damage and carnage to the whole flaperon if the engine was torn off.

If the flaps were down, they surely would've been damaged at the trailing end and torn off, taking the flaperon with it.
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
82029
Posts: 356
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:27 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:34 am

Just a video to show the flaperon on the 777.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_pAQ-Ur21I



[Edited 2015-07-29 20:37:34]
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 1014
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:38 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:35 am

Quoting Okie (Reply 240):
About the only thing that would come from this part being found is that it has poked holes in the analogy that the plane landed, the passengers dealt with and the plane was to be used for another purpose.

That's quite an important conclusion to put to rest. I hope this is indeed the part.
 
TXspotter
Posts: 84
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:44 am

The "WB203" in my picture of the data plate is the Serial Number (SN), NOT the block number. Yes, "W" denotes B777 in many parts, it does not correspond to the serial numbers. It's just a coincidence in the case of my data plate picture showing SN WB203.

Note the Part Number 113W6100-X, the W indicates B777 in the part number. 113N6100-XX would be B737 IIRC.

I do not believe the reported BB604 has anything to do with the flaperon because the data plate appears to be missing (very common) in the pictures of the flaperon on the grass.

There are many "parts" attached to the found flaperon which have distinctive Part Numbers. For example the leading edge of the flaperon will have its own part number (stamped on the inside of the LE, not visible without cutting open)

PN 113W6100-10 /SN WB203 is the whole flaperon assembly.
 
kevin
Posts: 1036
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:49 am

So does all this support the theory that the pilot was trying to crash into the Diego Garcia base? I mean he did practise the approach on his simulator. Or may be the parts just drifted in that direction
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6982
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:53 am

Quoting edmountain (Reply 251):
I think you should give him some credit.

You can think whatever you like.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 251):
If one single finding can significantly redefine the search area then I'd say that's important.

If only it was true that this one potential "single finding can significantly redefine the search area"...

Different people will continue to say where they think the 'prioirty' search area should be and why, just like they have been doing from the beginning.

Even without new information for some time people have continued to express different views on where the search area should be and why.

Erik van Sebille might just have been the first to speak after this potential find - the others will follow, their opinions will differ, and the opinions will change again if a bit of the plane washes up somewhere else...



http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-s...debris-checked-for-mh370-ties.html

""'In the event that the wreckage is identified as being from MH370 on La Reunion Island, it would be consistent with other analysis and modelling that the resting place of the aircraft is in the southern Indian Ocean,' Mr Truss said in a statement. ""



Sounds like any confirmation that the wreckage is from 9M-MRO would be consistent with the current modelling / search area, which is the complete opposite of resulting in significantly redefining the search area as you put it.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6982
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:58 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 242):
Quoting enilria (Reply 239):b) the pilot was in control of the aircraft near the time it hit the water

Nah, that would likely suggest a nefarious and somewhat unwell pilot.

LOL

Who would have guessed!

Quoting kevin (Reply 256):
So does all this support the theory that the pilot was trying to crash into the Diego Garcia base? I mean he did practise the approach on his simulator.

Did he really?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
rwessel
Posts: 2448
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:47 pm

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:00 am

Quoting kevin (Reply 256):

So does all this support the theory that the pilot was trying to crash into the Diego Garcia base? I mean he did practise the approach on his simulator. Or may be the parts just drifted in that direction

No. The flaperon will have drifted many thousands of miles in the last 500 days.
 
oxymorph
Posts: 177
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:08 am

Quoting kevin (Reply 256):
So does all this support the theory that the pilot was trying to crash into the Diego Garcia base? I mean he did practise the approach on his simulator. Or may be the parts just drifted in that direction

No. It supports the only plausible theory there is. That the pilot flew the a/c to the Inmarsat calculated SIO terminus. And that he did so with purpose, conviction, focus and motive.
 
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Web500sjc
Posts: 852
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RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:19 am

They just found a flapaeron that has been sitting in the ocean for 1.5 years, how can you guys infer anything about an airplane crash?

You need something more than visual analysis to figure out how the thing separated from the aircraft. I mean the hinges from the full part are missing from under the debris.

The only thing I can conclude is there has been a 777 flapper on found, presumably the only one currently missing in the world, from MH370.
Boiler Up!
 
edmountain
Posts: 235
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:00 pm

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:36 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 257):
Sounds like any confirmation that the wreckage is from 9M-MRO would be consistent with the current modelling / search area, which is the complete opposite of resulting in significantly redefining the search area as you put it.

Feel free to ignore him all you want. But the dude has spent his life modelling how stuff floats around the ocean.

The current search area is simply prioritized as an area of "reasonably high confidence" and not because it's the only possible outcome. Despite what you say new data (if that's what this is) will change the probability distribution dramatically and if it shifts in favour of being further north then that is still not in contradiction with the original models. It just means what was originally a lower-probability solution turns out now to be more probable with the new data.

Here's an image of the current high-probability search area and the broader lower-probability search area. You can see it's definitely possible that the plane can have gone down northwest of Australia and still be "consistent with other analysis and modelling."

http://jacc.gov.au/media/maps/files/20150114_UnderwaterSearchAreas.jpg
 
kevin
Posts: 1036
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 5:03 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:41 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 260):
No. It supports the only plausible theory there is. That the pilot flew the a/c to the Inmarsat calculated SIO terminus. And that he did so with purpose, conviction, focus and motive.

What does Immrasat SIO means?
 
oxymorph
Posts: 177
Joined: Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:57 pm

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:50 am

Quoting kevin (Reply 263):
What does Immrasat SIO means?

It is where Inmarsat's (company that operates/owns satellites) maths modeled the a/c traveling (directional) and terminating . SIO is the Southern Indian Ocean.

[Edited 2015-07-29 21:51:15]
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3394
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:52 am

As this thread has gotten long. Part 2 has been created to continue the conversation.

It can be found here Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN) Part 2 (by jetblueguy22 Jul 29 2015 in Civil Aviation) .

Regards,
Pat
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
gogojet
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:23 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:07 am

For those of you who are interested in what the ocean currents in the Indian Ocean are capable of read this:

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/west...onths/story-fnhocxo3-1226795703739
 
Aither
Posts: 1275
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

RE: Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN)

Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:48 am

I'm surprised we still don't have any official comment yet. Boeing is supposed to keep track of the parts number ?. Will this debris go to a museum or on Ebay ?
Never trust the obvious

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