Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN) Part 2

jetblueguy22 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:52 am

As the first thread has gotten long a new thread is being created to continue the conversation.

The previous thread can be found here Aircraft Flap Found In La Réunion (RUN) (by chuchoteur Jul 29 2015 in Civil Aviation) .

Regards,
Pat

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:57 am

Quoting Web500sjc :

They just found a flapaeron that has been sitting in the ocean for 1.5 years, how can you guys infer anything about an airplane crash?

The nature of the damage to the piece could hold a fair amount of clues to the planes position when it impacted the water, which could be very critical.

gogojet · Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:25 am

For those of you interested in what the sea currents in the Indian Ocean are capable of :

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/west...onths/story-fnhocxo3-1226795703739

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:32 am

Look how beat up the ailerons got on US1549. In a lot of ways the flaperon is in pretty remarkable condition.

TheRedBaron · Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:55 am

I was thinking that in order for the flapper to be in that condition I may have detached in flight, water destroys easily the slats and ailerons, even the engine casings. Maybe it began a dive after running out of fuel and the flapperon became separated, hence its very good condition.

Thanks for the picture of Sully´s Ill fated ride.

TRB

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:12 am

Theres still a lot of the trailing edge portion that chopped off. I don't think theres any way it came off in flight.

seahawk · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:20 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 3):
Look how beat up the ailerons got on US1549. In a lot of ways the flaperon is in pretty remarkable condition.

But this one was in full down position when it hit the water. If the other was in up position it suffered much less direct impact.

JoeCanuck · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:24 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 4):

The flaperon is made out of aluminum, composites or both. It's basically attached at two points, plus the actuator rod, and it's designed to take the forces of air against it at a variety of airspeeds. If you substitute water for air at those same speeds, it's going to come off...and I'm not surprised it did so and remained fairly intact. I doubt the mounts could take the stress and It looks like the flaperon hinges tore free of it.

Look at the vertical stabilizer of AF447. That remained remarkably intact after hitting the water at high speed, and it looks like the rudder tore off relatively cleanly. It also remained afloat, granted it was found the day after the accident.

Who knows how long it could have floated.

Nouflyer · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:26 am

The problem is that so much time has elapsed that you can basically take your pick of any conspiracy theory you like if you want to link this to the lost Malaysian airplane.

If this disappearance was a nefarious act pretty much anywhere from central Asia to the Indian Ocean, the perpetrators - if it was not the crew - have had ample opportunity to plant what they want where they want.

So I very much doubt that any positive conclusions can be drawn from this.

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:27 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):

But this one was in full down position when it hit the water. If the other was in up position it suffered much less direct impact.

Flaps, yes. Outboard ailerons.. no, those would have been in a relatively neutral position for impact.

On the 777 the flaperons would more or less match the angle of the corresponding flaps, up or down.

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:28 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 8):

If this disappearance was a nefarious act pretty much anywhere from central Asia to the Indian Ocean, the perpetrators - if it was not the crew - have had ample opportunity to plant what they want where they want.

So they wanted to steal a 777 but still haven't used it?

tcyvr · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:37 am

Almost confirmed that the piece belongs to MH370

MH370 search: Minister says debris 'almost certainly' from Boeing 777 – http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...hrough-debris-found-reunion-island

Also the Malays won't send a team out there if they were not sure.

Nouflyer · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:45 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 10):
So they wanted to steal a 777 but still haven't used it?

I don't think that anyone ever wanted to steal a 777.

The only two plausible suggestions that I have ever seen for the disappearance of MH370 were:

1) Foul play by the flight crew, or
2) Hijacking to western China by Uighur separatists, followed by bungled rescue mission by ill-equipped locally-based Chinese forces leading to mass deaths and a need to conceal the event.

Finding a part would be consistent with either hypothesis. As would the transponder pattern. But the reported mobile phone patterns are only consistent with the second hypothesis, if they are credible.

Unfortunately, it has been obvious from the start that a number of major powers know precisely what happened but have elected not to reveal that information either not to reveal their own secret capabilities or because they have sought to use the information as leverage in other matters of international politics. That is very prudent politics, but it means that a full picture is impossible to assemble.

The Australian writer Ben Sandilands (who is mature and highly respected) has written in his "Plane Talking" blog at length about obvious lies being told by a number of the countries that presumably did not want a quick resolution to this affair. It will be hard for us ever to learn anything about what really happened now.

[Edited 2015-07-29 23:54:01]

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:47 am

This thread now being referenced by the media:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...72187/MH370-debris-found-live.html

Not surprisingly the aviation forums have been abuzz with informed speculation. On Airliners.net, where one of the users was the first to identify the part as a flaperon, there were a number of posts discussing the damage.

"The trailing edge damage could imply a controlled ditching," wrote SLCPilot.

Others disputed whether a soft landing could have done such damage.

And from Litz: "Anything on the airplane that is impeding the water as you soft-land is susceptible to getting damaged or torn off.

"Go look at the pictures of US 1549, which is probably the best example of a successful soft water landing there is, and you can see tremendous damage to all control surfaces."

chuchoteur · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:52 am

Well, I wouldn't have thought my simple question would have gone that far lol!
*amazing

WingedMigrator · Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:52 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
But this one was in full down position when it hit the water

Nonsense. You're looking at a control surface torn off a wing. All it proves is that the plane hit the water. You can make no reasonable inference about its position. A metallurgist might, after looking at fracture surfaces very closely, but not you. You probably think the plane was ditched intact, and confirmation bias kicked in.

SpinalTap · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:00 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 13):
This thread now being referenced by the media:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl....html

Also interesting in the Telegraph's news blog was the debris/current map

"Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi, from the University of Western Australia, said the aircraft part “can only have come from” the current search zone."

"Professor Pattiaratchi said modelling showed that wreckage would emerge in the region around Reunion Island within 18 to 24 months but current speeds were not uniform and difficult to predict. The MH370 aircraft went missing almost 17 months ago."

seahawk · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:04 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 15):
Nonsense. You're looking at a control surface torn off a wing. All it proves is that the plane hit the water. You can make no reasonable inference about its position. A metallurgist might, after looking at fracture surfaces very closely, but not you. You probably think the plane was ditched intact, and confirmation bias kicked in.

The US Airways flight ditched intact with flaps down and they seem to have held up pretty okay. The flaperon could have been up and survived a way stronger crash in that position.

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:07 am

Quoting SpinalTap (Reply 16):
Also interesting in the Telegraph's news blog was the debris/current map

Yeah. I am 100% sure this is from a Boeing 777 and pretty much 100% sure that 777 is 9M-MRO. Those current charts seal the deal.

flyDTW1992 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:11 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 13):
Not surprisingly the aviation forums have been abuzz with informed speculation.

"informed speculation." Hah. Love it.

morhas · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:16 am

Why the colour of flaperon not in Gray as the colour of MH370? My naked eye see it as white colour.

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:24 am

Quoting morhas (Reply 20):
Why the colour of flaperon not in Gray as the colour of MH370? My naked eye see it as white colour.

Differing light conditions, weathering, sun bleaching, could all be factors.

COOEE · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:28 am

Could this debris (flapper) be part of a Boeing 767-200ER, as in the 1996 ditching of Hijacked Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 of Grande Comore - this island is on the other side of Madagascar - one media report noted barnacles? Does that not suggest a longer time afloat.

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:37 am

767 flaperon is a bit different shaped.. not as rectangular. The real competition in size, shape, and timeframe would be the Yemenia A310, which features a similar inboard aileron.

16 months is plenty of time for barnacles in those warm waters.

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:37 am

Quoting COOEE (Reply 22):
Could this debris (flapper) be part of a Boeing 767-200ER, as in the 1996 ditching of Hijacked Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 of Grande Comore - this island is on the other side of Madagascar - one media report noted barnacles? Does that not suggest a longer time afloat.

The debris found is too big to be a 767 flaperon, and no, those mussels can develop with 12-18 months, no problem. Also, the 767 flaperon is metal (as far as I knor) wheras the debris is clearly composite structure, unique to 777 amongst Boeing airplanes (that have crashed nearby)

jrfspa320 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:40 am

Quoting COOEE (Reply 22):
one media report noted barnacles? Does that not suggest a longer time afloat.

Barnacles will begin to attached after just a couple of weeks

theaviator380 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:46 am

Not being funny, but apart from aircraft landed/crashed in the ocean..what else information single Flaperon can give us?

It will be great relief for all those relatives, friends n families gone through the tough times...(if this proved to be MH370 part).

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:49 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 26):
Not being funny, but apart from aircraft landed/crashed in the ocean..what else information single Flaperon can give us?

Well, put rest to any silly theories involving military bases or aliens. (Actually, no, no it won't.....)

It will at least give investigators some clues as to where to look for any additional debris which I think we will likely find over the next few months.

scbriml · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:01 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 1):
The nature of the damage to the piece could hold a fair amount of clues to the planes position when it impacted the water, which could be very critical.

Indeed, even just a visual inspection can tell the experts something. IIRC, shortly after the discovery of the AF447 crew rest compartment, it was clear the plane hit nearly horizontal, but at high vertical speed.

Thunderboltdrgn · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:26 am

According to the Guardian, local journalists at Reunion says that badly damaged suitcases have been
found very close to where the aircraft debris was found:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...and#block-55b9dcb5e4b016b93fad2467

photchan · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:26 am

SCMP.com in Hong Kong is reporting that a damaged suitcase has been found near the site of the plane debris that washed ashore.

scarebus03 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:28 am

in a previous post on the first thread I alluded that the number mentioned as BB670 sounded like an Airbus access panel when in fact reversed as 670BB it is most likely the flaperon of a B777-200/300. Subzone 670 corresponds to the r/h wing, specifically flap fairings.

I'm sure it will be confirmed shortly by an expert.

Brgds

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:35 am

I don't believe any of this suitcase stuff. Highly unlikely they drifted the same as the flaperon. The flaperon is perfect to have made such a long journey. It's composite and light and would be more characteristic of a watercraft than anything.

Also, if we have suitcases floating 4000 miles that would be indicative of a vast floating debris field which I find highly unlikely since there has been NOTHING found until this point.

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:36 am

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 29):
According to the Guardian, local journalists at Reunion says that badly damaged suitcases have been
found very close to where the aircraft debris was found:

As I mentioned in my earlier post, this flaperon is only the beginning of what will certainly be a bigger debris field that travelled along a similar path.

Quoting scarebus03 (Reply 31):
in a previous post on the first thread I alluded that the number mentioned as BB670 sounded like an Airbus access panel when in fact reversed as 670BB it is most likely the flaperon of a B777-200/300. Subzone 670 corresponds to the r/h wing, specifically flap fairings.

I'm sure it will be confirmed shortly by an expert.

Correct.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:38 am

From the previous thread:

Quote:
So, it seems to me that this makes the Southbound turn VERY unlikely and rekindles the theory that the plane was heading toward at least generally toward Diego Garcia. Anybody want to tackle either of those? Also, all the Inmarsat data would be false, would it not?

I doubt that, it's not like satellites are 'inventing' data.

I fully trust the Inmarsat data.

The map below explains how debris could have reached French Réunion:

holzmann · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:40 am

In situations like this does Boeing send an expert from Seattle to the location in question to conduct a visual inspection?

MadameConcorde · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:49 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 12):
it has been obvious from the start that a number of major powers know precisely what happened but have elected not to reveal that information

I am with you on this 100%

They know.

Wow!

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:51 am

More articles:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...oceanography-idUSL3N10A1VZ20150730

Quote:
Vast, rotating currents sweeping the southern Indian Ocean could have deposited wreckage from a missing Malaysia Airlines passenger jet near Africa, thousands of kilometres from where it is thought to have crashed, oceanographers said on Thursday.

And:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...rash-reunion-idUSKCN0Q32EM20150730

Quote:
Malaysia is "almost certain" that plane debris found on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean is from a Boeing 777, the deputy transport minister said on Thursday, heightening the possibility it could be wreckage from missing Flight MH370.

Byrdluvs747 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:04 am

Its been 20+ hours now. Shouldn't there have been contact between Boeing and Reunion officials to locate specific S/N numbers to verify the identity of the aircraft this piece came from?

** Sorry if this has been answered in the previous thread.

jpetekyxmd80 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:07 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 36):

I am with you on this 100%

They know.

Who knows what?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 38):
Its been 20+ hours now. Shouldn't there have been contact between Boeing and Reunion officials to locate specific S/N numbers to verify the identity of the aircraft this piece came from?

It will likely need to be dissected to find them, which im sure they haven't done yet.

theaviator380 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:19 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 38):

I think they won't rush on this....

Quoting photchan (Reply 30):

Yes photos can be seen in this link > http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-wing-flap-belongs-Boeing-777.html

77west · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:19 am

Media now linking Airliners.net user images!!

Suddenly we are informed experts...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-is-the-debris-found-in-la-reunion

"Here is a flaperon said to be from a Boeing 777 - MH370’s model - on a factory floor, posted on the airline discussion board on airliners.net. Users are comparing that image to the debris found in Réunion."

Kudos for explaining reasonably well what the part is however.

EDIT: They are linking to Boeing maintenance manual now: http://en.calameo.com/read/0003162864c5d46c7d25f

[Edited 2015-07-30 02:21:39]

speedbored · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:25 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 39):
It will likely need to be dissected to find them, which im sure they haven't done yet.

On the washed-up flapperon, looking a the panel where the labels are located on the refurbished item, it seems that the labels are long gone. Almost all of both hinges have also detached, as has the actuator arm.

Given that this flapperon appears to be a mostly one-piece construction, it would not, unfortunately, surprise me if there are actually no serial numbers to be found.

theaviator380 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:26 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 41):

Comment on that link says, serial number has matched and it is from MH370..comment was made 7 mins ago...french media reporting it seems..interesting.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:29 am

The flaperon seems to be from a B777 indeed.

http://twitter.com/airlivenet/status/626683640173457408

Quote:
BREAKING 657-BB code found on wreckage is Boeing 777 flaperon according to manual

[Edited 2015-07-30 02:33:14]

Aesma · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:37 am

I wonder if any conspiracy theorist predicted that the first piece would be found in France ?

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 26):
It will be great relief for all those relatives, friends n families gone through the tough times...(if this proved to be MH370 part).

It seems the're not relieved but very skeptical.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 38):
Its been 20+ hours now. Shouldn't there have been contact between Boeing and Reunion officials to locate specific S/N numbers to verify the identity of the aircraft this piece came from?

** Sorry if this has been answered in the previous thread.

Réunion officials are French officials as the island is a French department. So the national police, gendarmerie, and on top the prefect, are in charge. The préfet doesn't want to confirm anything so far, he's waiting for the BEA to analyse the part and give its preliminary analysis.

We all know the BEA doesn't like to rush things.

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:49 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 32):
I don't believe any of this suitcase stuff. Highly unlikely they drifted the same as the flaperon.

Per Twitter:

Investigating report that bag found but locals caution rocky East coast of Reunion is full of such waste from sea so caution needed

http://twitter.com/ReutersAero/status/626690431062028288

JoeCanuck · Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:55 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 17):
The US Airways flight ditched intact with flaps down and they seem to have held up pretty okay. The flaperon could have been up and survived a way stronger crash in that position.

Ditching in the Hudson river would have a significantly better chance of surviving relatively intact than the same thing happening in an ocean.

I think a more likely result of a ditching in the ocean would be Ethiopian 961. It came pretty close to being a controlled ditching but the plane ended up cartwheeling and breaking into pieces.

I can't remember...would it have been dark or light out when MH370 would have ditched/crashed...if it flew until it ran out of fuel?

B8887 · Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:00 am

Greetings All.

Will the flaperon be treated as possible evidence from a crime scene and placed under judiciary seal and 24h guard?

Will they send it to Paris to the BEA?

Will Boeing send in technicians from Everett?

Kind Regards.

B8887

KarelXWB · Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:09 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 17):
The US Airways flight ditched intact with flaps down and they seem to have held up pretty okay. The flaperon could have been up and survived a way stronger crash in that position.

River versus ocean, totally different scenario.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlndfEYIj4s

Good luck with the waves. And that's not even a storm.

Second, the US Airways A320 was flying much slower (just above stall speed I believe) due to the failed engines. A jetliner coming from FL380 would have a higher speed, thus the impact would be higher too.

Third, MH370 crashed at night, making it even more difficult for pilots to land an airplane on the water.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
I think a more likely result of a ditching in the ocean would be Ethiopian 961. It came pretty close to being a controlled ditching but the plane ended up cartwheeling and breaking into pieces.

[Edited 2015-07-30 03:17:50]

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