FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

Looks like Branson Air Express found some good Winter flying
1X MSY-CUN DEC 0.1>0.4 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.5 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4
1X SFB-CUN DEC 0.1>0.4 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4

2D FLL-CCS NOV 0.7>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0

And it looks like B6 won. No surprise.
*3M FLL-JAX NOV 3>0.9 DEC 3>0.6 JAN 3>0.7 FEB 3>0.8 MAR 3>0.7 APR 3>0.7

Reverses last week right?
*AA BOS-MDT NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.9 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
AA BOS-SYR APR 1.0>2
AA CLT-OAJ FEB 7>8 MAR 6>7 APR 6>7
AA MIA-GIG MAR 0.3>1.0
AA PHX-ELP SEP 1.2>3
AA PHX-FAT SEP 1.2>3
AA PHX-PSP SEP 0>0.7

AC MCO-YYZ NOV 4>3 DEC 5>4
AC MIA-YYZ NOV 4>3
AC RSW-YUL DEC 0.2>1.0
AC RSW-YYZ NOV 1.3>2 DEC 3>4
AC SFO-YUL NOV 1.0>0.6

AG MIA-AUA SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.5 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.5 APR 0>0.6

AM ORD-MLM NOV 0.2>0 DEC 0.1>0 JAN 0.2>0 FEB 0.1>0 MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.1>0

AS PDX-DFW MAR 1.3>2
*AS PDX-MCI MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
*AS PDX-MSP MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
*AS PDX-OMA MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

CA IAH-PEK NOV 0.7>0.6

Well, it's not dropped, but no longer daily. Expect media hand-wringing.
*DL ATL-DXB OCT 0.9>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL ATL-FWA OCT 4>3
DL ATL-GRU NOV 1.5>1.4
DL ATL-NAS JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
That was short-lived
*DL ATL-OAK OCT 0.7>0 JAN 0.8>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 1.0>0
DL ATL-RIC MAR 9>8
DL ATL-SYR OCT 3>2
DL ATL-TRI MAR 7>6
DL CVG-CLT OCT 3>1.5 APR 1.9>3
DL DFW-MSP OCT 7>6
DL HNL-PDX JAN 0.3>0.2
DL HNL-SFO JAN 0.3>0.2
DL JFK-BWI JAN 3>4
DL JFK-DEN APR 1.1>1.9
DL JFK-MSP FEB 4>5 MAR 3>4
DL JFK-PVR APR 0.2>0
DL LAX-ATL OCT 10>11
*DL LGA-AUA MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.2>0
DL LGA-BOS DEC 11>12 FEB 14>15 MAR 14>15 APR 13>14
DL MDW-MSP OCT 7>6
*DL SLC-AMS MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0
I never understood this route
*DL SLC-MDW SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

F9 DEN-IND NOV 1.0>2.0
F9 DEN-MIA NOV 1.0>2.0
F9 DEN-PDX NOV 1.9>3
*F9 IAH-LAS NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 IND-MCO NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 LAS-MIA NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 LAS-MKE NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 LAS-SFO NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 LAX-MCO NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*F9 PHL-RSW NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0

G3 MIA-PUJ FEB 0.4>0.6 MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.6

*Already cutting?
HU BOS-PEK NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.6
*HU BOS-PVG APR 0>0.4
HU ORD-PEK DEC 0.8>0.6
*HU SEA-PEK NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7 MAR 1.0>0.8
HU SEA-PVG APR 0>0.6
HU SJC-PEK NOV 0.7>0.6 DEC 0.7>0.5 JAN 0.7>0.6 FEB 0.6>0.5 APR 0>0.7

MU JFK-PVG DEC 1.0>1.3 JAN 1.0>1.5 FEB 1.0>1.5 MAR 1.0>1.4

MW KOA-MKK SEP 1.2>0.5 OCT 1.6>0.7 NOV 1.6>0.7 DEC 1.6>0.7 JAN 1.5>0.7 FEB 1.6>0.8 MAR 1.6>0.7

SY MSP-LIR MAR 0.7>0.6

UA BOS-CLE DEC 5>4
UA CLE-MCO DEC 1.5>1.0
UA CLE-MKE DEC 3>1.7
UA CLE-STL DEC 1.6>0.8
UA DEN-ATL JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
UA DEN-AUS JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
UA DEN-COS NOV 9>8
UA DEN-OMA NOV 5>6
UA DEN-PSP NOV 2.0>3
*UA EWR-BFS JAN 0.2>0.5 FEB 0>0.4
UA EWR-BOS DEC 10>9
UA EWR-CVG DEC 6>5
UA EWR-LAS DEC 5>4
UA EWR-MBJ MAR 1.1>1.3 APR 1.2>1.3
UA EWR-ORF DEC 5>6
UA EWR-PBI NOV 8>7
Very weird. Error? They add FEB and drop MAR?
*UA EWR-POS JAN 0.1>0.5 FEB 0>0.2 MAR 0.1>0
UA EWR-PUJ MAR 2>3
*UA EWR-SRQ FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0
UA EWR-YQB DEC 1.5>1.0
UA IAD-MBJ MAR 0.3>0.5
UA IAD-PUJ MAR 1.0>1.6 APR 0.9>1.1
UA IAD-PVD NOV 2.0>3
UA IAD-PWM NOV 1.0>2
UA IAD-ROA DEC 1.6>1.1
UA IAH-BJX DEC 5>4
UA IAH-BRO DEC 5>4
UA IAH-BTR DEC 8>6
UA IAH-CAE DEC 1.3>0.9
UA IAH-CLL DEC 3>1.9
UA IAH-JAN DEC 7>6
UA IAH-LFT DEC 8>6
UA IAH-MBJ MAR 0.3>0.5
UA IAH-MEM DEC 7>6
UA IAH-MEX NOV 7>8
UA IAH-MKE JAN 3>1.9
UA IAH-MTY DEC 9>6 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7 MAR 8>7 APR 8>7
UA IAH-OKC DEC 9>8
UA IAH-PUJ MAR 0.3>0.6
UA IAH-RIC DEC 1.9>1.4
UA IAH-TYR DEC 3>1.8
UA IAH-YEG DEC 1.5>1.0
UA LAX-SMF DEC 3>1.9
UA ORD-ALB DEC 4>3
UA ORD-ASE FEB 4>5 MAR 4>5
UA ORD-ATW DEC 5>4
UA ORD-AVP DEC 1.5>1.0
UA ORD-BDL DEC 5>4
UA ORD-BNA DEC 6>5
UA ORD-BOS DEC 8>7
UA ORD-CID DEC 6>5
UA ORD-CLE DEC 10>9
UA ORD-CVG DEC 8>7
UA ORD-EWR DEC 12>11
UA ORD-GRB DEC 5>4
UA ORD-ICT DEC 5>4
UA ORD-JAN DEC 1.4>1.0
UA ORD-LAS DEC 4>3
UA ORD-LIT DEC 3>1.4
UA ORD-MBJ MAR 0.4>0.3
UA ORD-MCI DEC 7>6
UA ORD-MEM DEC 5>4
UA ORD-MLI DEC 5>4
UA ORD-MSP DEC 10>9
UA ORD-PIA DEC 4>3
UA ORD-PUJ MAR 1.0>1.8 APR 0.9>1.1
UA ORD-SDF DEC 5>4
UA ORD-SGF DEC 4>3
UA ORD-STL DEC 10>9
UA ORD-YOW DEC 4>3
UA ORD-YYZ DEC 7>5
UA SFO-IAD NOV 8>9
UA SFO-LAX DEC 14>13
UA SFO-SAN DEC 9>8
UA SFO-SBA DEC 7>6
UA SFO-SEA NOV 10>9

UP FLL-FPO JAN 1.7>1.4 FEB 1.8>1.3 MAR 1.7>1.3 APR 1.7>1.3
UP FLL-NAS JAN 4>3 FEB 5>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3
UP MCO-NAS JAN 1.7>1.1 FEB 1.8>1.0 MAR 1.7>1.0 APR 1.7>1.0
UP MIA-NAS JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3
UP PBI-MHH JAN 0.9>0.7 FEB 0.9>0.8 MAR 0.8>0.7 APR 0.9>0.7
UP PBI-NAS JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3 MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3

Neither ATL-OAK nor SLC-MDW made any sense to me other than some sort of pissing match against WN. Legacy airlines should stay focused at SFO / ORD instead of trying to be all things to all people.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 1):

IMHO, MDW and OAK could be valuable destinations for DL. Both AA and UA have massive based at ORD, and UA has a large base at SFO, so the next door airports don't make sense. However for DL I think MDW and OAK are great opportunities to increase feed from the Chicago and Bay Area regions. Even OAK makes sense for AA, IMHO, although I'm not sure if it is currently served by AA

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL SLC-AMS MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0 I never understood this route

Is this a seasonal change?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Very weird. Error? They add FEB and drop MAR? *UA EWR-POS JAN 0.1>0.5 FEB 0>0.2 MAR 0.1>0

I thought this route was being totally discontinued? They probably reinstated it for JAN and FEB to cater for Carnival in POS.

Cheers,
AA1818

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2):

Look at the wealth distribution of both metros and you'll see why neither is that big a deal, esp MDW. It's not like SNA or SJC where some rich suburbs close to it can justify service.

So OAK is cancelled before it starts?

I wonder if Delta will ever consolidate their Chicago operation at ORD and abandon MDW altogether.

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 3): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL SLC-AMS MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0 Is this a seasonal change?

Seems to be as still bookable from May 2nd

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): UA BOS-CLE DEC 5>4 UA CLE-MCO DEC 1.5>1.0 UA CLE-MKE DEC 3>1.7 UA CLE-STL DEC 1.6>0.8

Just holiday cuts, according to a reliable source.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2): Even OAK makes sense for AA, IMHO, although I'm not sure if it is currently served by AA

pmAA pulled out of OAK some years back. pmUS flies PHX-OAK so by virtue of the merger, AA now serves OAK again.

Quoting ChiSky16 (Reply 6):

Probably not. A lot of people find MDW much more convenient. There is a market there.

I wonder if ATL-OAK and SLC-MDW will remain summer only routes? Yes they are kind of hitting the LCC airports so yields will probably be quite lower. If they wanted to send WN a message its a pretty weak one when you operate for such a short time period.

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 3): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL SLC-AMS MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0 I never understood this route Is this a seasonal change?

SLC-AMS was always suppose to be an extended summer route, CDG will be the year round N/S to Europe. Probably just adjusting it. I bet we see it flying next summer, they seemed to fill both just fine.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL LGA-AUA MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.2>0

Anyone heard anything on this?

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 1): Neither ATL-OAK nor SLC-MDW made any sense to me other than some sort of pissing match against WN.

ATL-OAK was definitely response to WN's move of ATL-SFO to ATL-OAK, although arguably they should have just been happy they moved. SLC-MDW was a WTF from day 1, although many here defended it.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2): IMHO, MDW and OAK could be valuable destinations for DL.

Quoting ChiSky16 (Reply 6): I wonder if Delta will ever consolidate their Chicago operation at ORD and abandon MDW altogether.

Even the ULCCs don't want to be at the secondary airports any more. DL only stays there at all because they don't want their "flank undefended" to use military strategy.

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 3): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL SLC-AMS MAR 0.2>0 APR 1.0>0 Is this a seasonal change?

They shortened the season vs what was selling.

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 3): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Very weird. Error? They add FEB and drop MAR? *UA EWR-POS JAN 0.1>0.5 FEB 0>0.2 MAR 0.1>0 I thought this route was being totally discontinued? They probably reinstated it for JAN and FEB to cater for Carnival in POS.

Isn't MAR a good month?

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 5): So OAK is cancelled before it starts?

I believe so. There is a press release saying Oct1 was the original start. They should have started it over Summer.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12): Even the ULCCs don't want to be at the secondary airports any more. DL only stays there at all because they don't want their "flank undefended" to use military strategy.

DL is operating 21 flights from MDW tomorrow to four hubs different. That's a pretty big 'defensive' operation.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 11): If they wanted to send WN a message its a pretty weak one when you operate for such a short time period.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 13): Quoting enilria (Reply 12): Even the ULCCs don't want to be at the secondary airports any more. DL only stays there at all because they don't want their "flank undefended" to use military strategy. DL is operating 21 flights from MDW tomorrow to four hubs different. That's a pretty big 'defensive' operation.

That's still what it is. It would be cheaper to operate from one airport. Not saying it is losing money.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): PEK NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.6 *HU BOS-PVG APR

BOS isn't daily to PEK in winter.
I'm not even sure PVG will run in winter or not.

Does it look like the HU SJC route is seeing seasonal adjustments, or is it an anomaly of the decimal system of notation?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL ATL-FWA OCT 4>3

October is typically a little slow for FWA-ATL because aside from G4, FWA is mostly a business travel airport after Labor Day until November. The legacies don't get much leisure travel during this timeframe, and ATL has more leisure travelers than other legacy carrier FWA routes. However, ATL is one of FWA's three strongest nonstop business O&D routes (along with DFW and PHL), so keeping the schedule frequent is a no-brainer. DL did this the past two years as well.

DL is planning on doing the inverse in January and February: boosting FWA-ATL from 4x to 5x while cutting FWA-DTW from 4x to 3x and keeping FWA-MSP at 1x.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 13): DL is operating 21 flights from MDW tomorrow to four hubs different. That's a pretty big 'defensive' operation.

Let's not forget that DL just went from 4 to 5 gates at MDW as part of the recent gate shuffles. Not as many as DL's 11 or 12 gates at ORD, of course, but still over 10% of MDW's gates as a whole.

I'd say that DL is very committed to MDW - not in the same way as WN, obviously. But MDW must be making money for DL because they're the last legacy standing, and because DL has very profit-minded management, they would have consolidated at ORD by now if they were losing money at MDW.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 17): Let's not forget that DL just went from 4 to 5 gates at MDW as part of the recent gate shuffles. Not as many as DL's 11 or 12 gates at ORD, of course, but still over 10% of MDW's gates as a whole. I'd say that DL is very committed to MDW - not in the same way as WN, obviously. But MDW must be making money for DL because they're the last legacy standing, and because DL has very profit-minded management, they would have consolidated at ORD by now if they were losing money at MDW.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 13): DL is operating 21 flights from MDW tomorrow to four hubs different. That's a pretty big 'defensive' operation.

DL serves at relatively high frequency - ATL, DTW, MSP. This is to serve O&D from DL fortress-like hubs and to provide onward connection service from the Chicago market. For a portion of the Chicago market, MDW is very much a viable option and can arguably be more favorable than ORD. Midwestern markets and former NW strongholds in DTW and MSP still see a sizable amount of business travel, including day trips.

For example, I am usually in Chicago 3-4 times per year for work, downtown in the loop. I almost always fly into MDW on DL versus ORD.

MDW-SLC doesn't say much about DL at MDW, its a goofy route as said, with minimal high-yield O&D, lack of meaningfu business traffic, and at only 1x per day doesn't do a whole lot that can't be done over MSP.

Quoting jcarv (Reply 15): BOS isn't daily to PEK in winter.

Not now. It was until this week's load.

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 16): Does it look like the HU SJC route is seeing seasonal adjustments, or is it an anomaly of the decimal system of notation?

I don't get what you mean about anomaly. If it shows above as a reduction then there are less flights in that month than were for sale a week ago. Some people make excuses and say the cuts are holidays or don't represent a change from the year before or what have you, but it's still a cut versus what was for sale a week ago as of the moment the data is captured.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL ATL-OAK OCT 0.7>0 JAN 0.8>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 1.0>0

I never understood this route to begin with -- guess it had to do with DL's obsession in pushing everything via ATL. Another dud is ATL/ONT -- the route's flush with cheap tickets, including the Holidays (First for less than Economy to LAX the Sunday after Thanksgiving as well as around Christmas/New Year's).

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 17): DL is planning on doing the inverse in January and February: boosting FWA-ATL from 4x to 5x while cutting FWA-DTW from 4x to 3x and keeping FWA-MSP at 1x.

February's awhile away (DL's still tweaking the early fall schedule) but ATL/FWA is 4x daily (sans Saturday) while DTW/FWA is 4x half the week and 3x the other.

[Edited 2015-08-02 19:41:51]

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *UA EWR-SRQ FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

I believe it is a seasonal route, last year it was twice daily ORD-SRQ, this year they are trying two different cities.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AS PDX-MCI MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

I am somewhat surprised at this route, but AS will need to lease more gate space and more than 2 positions at the ticket counter if they keep adding flights. Right now, all 3 flights will be timed to avoid a traffic jam, but they only have one gate in MCI.

I do think that airports like OAK & ONT need flights to places other than LAX, SLC and DEN. It may just be that WN has won the market. In the case of OAK WN now serves >25 cities.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19): I don't get what you mean about anomaly. If it shows above as a reduction then there are less flights in that month than were for sale a week ago. Some people make excuses and say the cuts are holidays or don't represent a change from the year before or what have you, but it's still a cut versus what was for sale a week ago as of the moment the data is captured.

It was explained to me that what look like reductions aren't necessarily reductions because of the way the decimal system works (0.0, 0.1, etc). Odd numbers of days in a month, less than daily service split by months, something like that.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19): If it shows above as a reduction then there are less flights in that month than were for sale a week ago. Some people make excuses and say the cuts are holidays or don't represent a change from the year before or what have you, but it's still a cut versus what was for sale a week ago as of the moment the data is captured.

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 23): It was explained to me that what look like reductions aren't necessarily reductions because of the way the decimal system works (0.0, 0.1, etc). Odd numbers of days in a month, less than daily service split by months, something like that.

As a general rule, a reduction always is an actual reduction unless there was a filing error. As noted by enilria, the reductions may or may not have specific reasons (or excuses) for being implemented, but they are definitely a result of fewer flights being for sale.

I believe you're thinking of the opposite case; these reports showing an increase in service are sometimes an extension of the schedule available for sale as opposed to an actual increase in frequency (particularly true for LCC-type airlines that don't file the full schedule as far in advance). We usually figure seeing XXX-YYY JUN 1>2 means the airline has increased frequency from one flight daily to double daily in June, but it actually means they have increased from 30 flights to 60 flights for sale in the 30-day month of June.

This can mean the flight was always scheduled as double daily, but the airline in question was only selling June 1-15 initially and it showed up as 30 flights in 30 days (an average of 1 per day). Opening June 16-30 for sale adds 30 more flights for a total of 60 flights in 30 days (an average of 2 per day) without ever having actually increased the daily frequency on the route.

[Edited 2015-08-02 23:51:45]

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 18): its a goofy route as said, with minimal high-yield O&D, lack of meaningfu business traffic, and at only 1x per day doesn't do a whole lot that can't be done over MSP.

Aren't all of those things true of the other low-frequency SLC routes that seem to work all right like MSN and BNA? Plainly, the route was unsuccessful, but I'm not sure why it is or was goofy.

There's a difference between a "seasonal" route and one that is being "cut".

A cut route doesn't come back, a seasonal route comes back during certain months (or any time unit) of the year.

A seasonal route ending until December 20th, or whatever, is not being cut. Cut is if the route is never returning no matter how much time passes.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *3M FLL-JAX NOV 3>0.9 DEC 3>0.6 JAN 3>0.7 FEB 3>0.8 MAR 3>0.7 APR 3>0.7

This is a seasonal adjustment, not a cut. A cut is a route that has been discontinued altogether.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): F9 DEN-MIA NOV 1.0>2.0

This is a seasonal adjustment. When it goes back to 1, that will be a seasonal adjustment as well.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *UA EWR-SRQ FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

This is a seasonal route as well.

-LPDAL

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 25): Aren't all of those things true of the other low-frequency SLC routes that seem to work all right like MSN and BNA? Plainly, the route was unsuccessful, but I'm not sure why it is or was goofy.

3:30 hour flights on 2-class RJs - 1 flight per day at MDW and 4x per day from ORD in a market with 3 large hubs. AA, UA, and WN over a ton of nonstop flights into markets on the West Coast versus DL who is competing for connecting traffic.

MSN and BNA do not have the competition associated with 3 hub airlines offering nonstops in the market.

Quoting COMPENSATEME (Reply 20): I never understood this route to begin with -- guess it had to do with DL's obsession in pushing everything via ATL.

It was loaded right after WN moved their ATL-SFO to ATL-OAK.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 21): Right now, all 3 flights will be timed to avoid a traffic jam, but they only have one gate in MCI.

Traffic jam in MCI? When?

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 23): It was explained to me that what look like reductions aren't necessarily reductions because of the way the decimal system works (0.0, 0.1, etc). Odd numbers of days in a month, less than daily service split by months, something like that.

It's just the number of flights for sale in the month divided over the number of days. It is compared to what it was a week ago for the same period.

Quoting steex (Reply 24): As a general rule, a reduction always is an actual reduction unless there was a filing error. As noted by enilria, the reductions may or may not have specific reasons (or excuses) for being implemented, but they are definitely a result of fewer flights being for sale.

Correct

Quoting steex (Reply 24): I believe you're thinking of the opposite case; these reports showing an increase in service are sometimes an extension of the schedule available for sale as opposed to an actual increase in frequency

It is an increase in frequency versus what was for sale the week before which is what the report measures.

Quoting steex (Reply 24): We usually figure seeing XXX-YYY JUN 1>2 means the airline has increased frequency from one flight daily to double daily in June, but it actually means they have increased from 30 flights to 60 flights for sale in the 30-day month of June.

Correct

Quoting steex (Reply 24): This can mean the flight was always scheduled as double daily, but the airline in question was only selling June 1-15 initially and it showed up as 30 flights in 30 days

It could also mean the airline has 4x daily the first 15 days and nothing the rest of the month, but there is really no perfect system for this that is manageable.

Thanks for the help.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 27): MSN and BNA do not have the competition associated with 3 hub airlines offering nonstops in the market.

You're sort of moving the goalposts, no? The competitive picture is different. The ability to substitute other hubs, low O&D and lack of business connections are true in all three places.

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 26): A cut route doesn't come back

The word "cut" can mean either.

12. To reduce the size; cut a budget; cut the cooking time in half.
13. To remove or delete.

Quoting enilria (Reply 30): The word "cut" can mean either.

It can mean either, but using both simultaneously makes it largely ambiguous. In these OAG reports, your definition of "cut" is a combination of both 12 and 13, which is a bit confusing, as there is no differentiation between a route being cut altogether or cut in frequency (unless you read between the lines), leading me to believe that if a route is seasonal, it is being "cut" when it is not flown during the slow season, which is not the case. When using the adjective cut in this industry, it mostly applies to something being removed altogether, not something being removed for the season which will subsequently return when business is fast in that specific sector.

Vendors control supplied product levels during the various seasons to match demand in order to make the most profit possible. During the fast season, certain products are sold that make sense to sell during that season to match demand. Just because Home Depot isn't selling a wide variety of snow shovels and Christmas decorations in June doesn't mean that they have cut their inventory forever. In the same vein, highly seasonal ski destinations such as WYS, Aspen, and Eagle / Vail have reduced airline service (or none at all) when it isn't the ski season. That doesn't mean that it has been cut, and, surprisingly, service returns to mountain airports during the ski season....

Another example, you listed FLL-DEN on UA going to 0.2/week as interesting, when it really isn't, as that happens every year in accordance for ski season demand. Subsequently, the route will go higher, and, when the ski season stops, the route will go back to 0.2. That's a seasonal adjustment, not a cut. It would be a cut if United never flew from Denver to Fort Lauderdale nonstop no matter what season of the year it is.

-LPDAL

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 25): Aren't all of those things true of the other low-frequency SLC routes that seem to work all right like MSN and BNA? Plainly, the route was unsuccessful, but I'm not sure why it is or was goofy.

I think it was an atypical route because DL was already servicing it from ORD. While DL services MDW with other hubs also serviced from ORD, DL will revert back to only serve the nearest mid-continent hubs in each direction (ATL, DTW, MSP).

MDW is a more convenient to the Loop. It is less traffic by cab and lower cab fare, so DL probably keeps a MDW presence just to get some of the business for pax that will use MDW. But ORD is still DL's primary airport for Chicago.

So, DL is exercising a strategy not to put too much capacity into that alternate airport. It doesn't offer NY (via LGA/JFK) either or SLC.

[Edited 2015-08-03 07:54:18]

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 31):

I use it to mean "reduced" which can either mean reduced to zero or reduced to less that before.

Regardless, the problem with seasonal changes is that very often they are used as a cover for permanent changes. Doing this thread it seems like that with the exception of the ski stuff, an unplanned seasonal reduction more often than not leads to a permanent reduction.

In a broader sense, any time an airline sells a larger schedule and then reduces it, it means they were disappointed with its performance and/or overly optimistic.

If an airline flies a route 5 months per year and does that every year and never contemplates anything else it should not appear in this thread. It only appears as they make changes.

Dang I always was thinking cut was used in the wound sense. I always was curious how a whole city can get wounded the
same month lol.....  

Maybe DL can start something that will really be a success, ATL-IDA? LOL jk.......
Have a good day.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 32): So, DL is exercising a strategy not to put too much capacity into that alternate airport. It doesn't offer NY (via LGA/JFK) either or SLC.

No, but when DL entered CHI-LGA, it was to MDW, and NW tried MDW-MEM at least once. Neither is apples-to-apples, but it's simply not true that trying MDW to another hub is unprecedented.

Quoting enilria (Reply 28): It could also mean the airline has 4x daily the first 15 days and nothing the rest of the month, but there is really no perfect system for this that is manageable.

Indeed. As is often the case, the problem isn't with the data or its provider, it's with the analysts. As long as we recognize what we're getting here (free of charge and effort, no less), this data serves as one of the best and most consistent generators of interesting discussion on the forums.

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 26): There's a difference between a "seasonal" route and one that is being "cut". A cut route doesn't come back, a seasonal route comes back during certain months (or any time unit) of the year. A seasonal route ending until December 20th, or whatever, is not being cut. Cut is if the route is never returning no matter how much time passes.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33): Regardless, the problem with seasonal changes is that very often they are used as a cover for permanent changes. Doing this thread it seems like that with the exception of the ski stuff, an unplanned seasonal reduction more often than not leads to a permanent reduction.

Maybe I'm misreading, but it seems like there is a misconception that routes are loaded as year-round and that reduced to seasonal closer to operation. That does happen, but generally only when there is an intention to operate year-round and poor performance forecasts lead to the airline moving to seasonal. This point is important...

Quoting enilria (Reply 33): If an airline flies a route 5 months per year and does that every year and never contemplates anything else it should not appear in this thread. It only appears as they make changes.

When we see here that DL is chopping the SLC-AMS season back to start in May instead of late March, to me, that is very much a cut for March and April. The route isn't gone and the optimist can say that perhaps it will do well with a shorter season, but it is undeniable that they previously planned and sold a daily flight in April that now will not operate.

Pleasantly surprised to see the Orange Air flights out of CVG/BKG/MSY/CUN/SFB get extended on what appears to be a year-round basis now. For MSY, this will mean the first year-round nonstop service to CUN since the early 2000s.

Quoting enilria (Reply 12): ATL-OAK was definitely response to WN's move of ATL-SFO to ATL-OAK, although arguably they should have just been happy they moved. SLC-MDW was a WTF from day 1, although many here defended it.

The problem with single-daily routes like ATL-OAK and SLC-MDW (and it's true of ATL-ONT as well) is the internal competition with the far more frequent service between the hub and the primary airport in the market. There exists a significant fraction of customers which would prefer the secondary airport, but single-daily service typically won't be acceptable (except when heavily discounted, to highly price-sensitive customers) when there are, for example, eight daily services in a market like ATL-SFO.

ATL-MDW, DTW-MDW, & MSP-MDW work reasonably well for DL because the frequency in those markets is competitive with ORD. Single-daily SLC-MDW on DL doesn't work against WN's superior frequency in the airport pair or the far more frequent service on three carriers between SLC & ORD.

ATL-OAK on WN will carry mostly price-sensitive customers.

Routes like SLC-MSN or SLC-BNA don't have that same internal competition with frequent non-stop service to the primary airport.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Very weird. Error? They add FEB and drop MAR? *UA EWR-POS JAN 0.1>0.5 FEB 0>0.2 MAR 0.1>0

POS is probably driven more by VFR traffic than spring break traffic -- so you'd see a spike in traffic for the midwinter school break in February (as well as Carnival) rather than college spring break which is typically in March.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38): Routes like SLC-MSN or SLC-BNA don't have that same internal competition with frequent non-stop service to the primary airport.

No, but by the same token, SLC-MSN/BNA aren't surviving on SLC O&D.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38): The problem with single-daily routes like ATL-OAK and SLC-MDW (and it's true of ATL-ONT as well) is the internal competition with the far more frequent service between the hub and the primary airport in the market. There exists a significant fraction of customers which would prefer the secondary airport, but single-daily service typically won't be acceptable (except when heavily discounted, to highly price-sensitive customers) when there are, for example, eight daily services in a market like ATL-SFO.

Agreed. Additionally, though, making the one daily OAK-ATL flight a redeye couldn't have been that enticing to people who live near OAK. Whether travel involves business or leisure, I have to imagine a morning departure would have attracted more passengers that would have paid for the added connection opportunities that ATL has to offer. A redeye only would have made some Caribbean and some east coast destinations possible (the latter could already be done via SLC/LAX).

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 40): Whether travel involves business or leisure, I have to imagine a morning departure would have attracted more passengers that would have paid for the added connection opportunities that ATL has to offer. A redeye only would have made some Caribbean and some east coast destinations possible (the latter could already be done via SLC/LAX).

Agreed, and it might also have attracted some schedule-conscious O&D passengers who prefer OAK if the schedules work out but will cross the Bay for better frequency if they have to. From Nashville (not too far from Atlanta), my preferred schedule to and from the west coast is a late afternoon departure going west and an early morning departure coming east. Just based on anecdotal evidence among my friends who do a lot of business travel, I think that's pretty typical.

Quoting steex (Reply 36): Maybe I'm misreading, but it seems like there is a misconception that routes are loaded as year-round and that reduced to seasonal closer to operation. That does happen, but generally only when there is an intention to operate year-round and poor performance forecasts lead to the airline moving to seasonal. This point is important...

You're fine.

My point was that "seasonal routes" aren't identical terms to "Cut altogether" or just "cut" alone. Sure, you could use the word in the context of "FLL-DEN has been cut down to 0.2", but to most people it won't make sense as usually that adjective is used to describe something being removed altogether.

My comment was more in response to the "cutting" of FLL-DEN to 0.2, then in a subsequent report which involves the Ski Season it will be marked with a * as it has been raised to 2.0 (why is that interesting), then finally, in another OAG report which involves the slow season, it will be again marked with a * next to the original 0.2 as if United is cutting the route altogether, which doesn't make much sense.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33): Regardless, the problem with seasonal changes is that very often they are used as a cover for permanent changes.

Whether or not it is cover does not make a seasonal change the same as a permanent change.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33): If an airline flies a route 5 months per year and does that every year and never contemplates anything else it should not appear in this thread. It only appears as they make changes.

That's a bit strange to hear. Permanently closed routes are the exception in these threads, not the rule. Most are just cuts or adds to routes in accordance with demand, some seasonal, some not. Nevertheless a seasonal route is a seasonal route, not a cut route because we are not presently in the season in which it is primarily flown.

-LPDAL

[Edited 2015-08-03 10:55:42]

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 39): by the same token, SLC-MSN/BNA aren't surviving on SLC O&D.

Correct, but the argument is the same for the connecting traffic as well. If you're flying from CHS or GSO or HSV to the S.F. Bay Area, the schedule to SFO (via ATL) will still be vastly superior to the schedule to OAK.

SLC-MSN and SLC-BNA cater to the few or several dozen passengers of O&D in each market and connections help to fill the planes. The traffic could obviously go over MSP but there are a number of markets which are better or only connected to the network via SLC, so that may be enough to justify the non-stop flight. But if you're traveling to Nashville or Madison, you don't exactly have an alternate airport in the metro to choose (although MKE isn't horribly far from Madison).

Quoting ScottB (Reply 43): The traffic could obviously go over MSP but there are a number of markets which are better or only connected to the network via SLC, so that may be enough to justify the non-stop flight.

I'd submit that MSN/BNA-GEG/PSC/SMF traffic isn't really filling the airplanes either. My (somewhat well-informed) guess is that half or more of the traffic is going to the big west coast destinations. It's a nice combination of smaller but likely higher-yielding markets with markets that are plenty big to fill up the rest of the plane.

That's a harder combination to massage in Chicago since ORD and MDW have so much more service to the west coast, but I'm still struggling with the description of SLC-MDW as "goofy" given other routes DL/NW has tried at MDW and other routes DL flies apparently successfully from SLC.

Quoting enilria (Reply 28): Traffic jam in MCI? When?

AS only has one gate at MCI, and two check-in positions in the terminal. With more than 3-4 flights, they will run into a traffic jam with their limited space, and flight times. Currently, there are 2x MCI-SEA service, and now adding MCI-PDX to the mix is filling up their available gate time.

By adding another flight after this one, they may have to lease a second gate or re-time their flights, as the gates in MCI are not common use, and are individually leased by the airlines. One delay, and they could find themselves in a situation where they won't have room for the flight.

OAK and MDW are prime examples (well, exceptions) that the airport closest to city center isn't the one commanding any yield premium.

Of course with any airport there's always a small slice of the population that would favor it, but the numbers don't lie.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44): I'd submit that MSN/BNA-GEG/PSC/SMF traffic isn't really filling the airplanes either. My (somewhat well-informed) guess is that half or more of the traffic is going to the big west coast destinations. It's a nice combination of smaller but likely higher-yielding markets with markets that are plenty big to fill up the rest of the plane.

Oh, I agree completely. You need the big West Coast markets to help fill the flight from SLC -- but that traffic obviously could be served via MSP. Serving the SLC O&D as well as the unique SLC connecting markets would be the reason for the SLC non-stop rather than just adding another MSP-MSN/BNA flight or upgauging the existing flights.

The point still is that there isn't an internal competition with another airport serving the same metro area as there is with MDW or OAK -- just with other hubs in the network.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 47): Oh, I agree completely. You need the big West Coast markets to help fill the flight from SLC -- but that traffic obviously could be served via MSP. Serving the SLC O&D as well as the unique SLC connecting markets would be the reason for the SLC non-stop rather than just adding another MSP-MSN/BNA flight or upgauging the existing flights.

I wish they'd throw a dart at XNA-SLC again. They tried both XNA and LIT-SLC a few years ago but they didn't last long. MSP sort-of serves that role, but a SLC flight would potentially shave 2-3 hours off the trip each way. Hoping they don't axe TUL-SLC as I've made that trip before to save cash and time.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 40):

I think a red eye OAK-ATL is up Spirit's alley. I was surprised DL offered that even if it was send to WN a message, as eventually DL would be competing with NK.

WN''s OAK-ATL and OAK-BWI flights are actually timed well for Bay Area business pax.

I think WN can profit on the route with benefit of O&D but also various across country connections on both ends. WN does sell modest to high fares on across country itineraries.