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IndianicWorld
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:27 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 98):
Now one month of BITRE stats does not tell it all, but VA could use the 789 . In March 2015 their North American in bound LF was only 64.4% or 233 average passengers per flight. Outbound was 81.3% or 293 passengers. They need something like the AC or NZ configured 789 version, tighten up their yield a bit and they would be operating the LAX market in much better shape.

The 77W has always been too big for VA, but due to lease arrangements and limited other options at that stage to operate routes like MEL-LAX (since cancelled) there wasn't likely much it could do. It needed the range, no really the capacity.

It is a very capable aircraft but its size just puts too much pressure on VA's yields to fill the seats.

I agree that the 789 is likely their best bet if they want to continue to have an international presence, and with NZ, EY and the SQ Group (Scoot) operating them, their owners are well aware of the aircraft's ability.

I would love to see the A359 though  
 
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enzo011
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:41 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
JQ, Scoot, Norwegian, Hong Kong Air, Air Asia X, Cebu, etc.

So you named 6 airlines out of more than a hundred LCCs to show that LCCs also operate twin aisle fleets? Where did I state that LCCs only operate single aisle aircraft? But the majority (90%?) tend to be only operators of single aisle aircraft.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
I already posted a quote from Airbus saying that they have sat in a mock up that had 10-abreast in the a350 at 16.9".

So you believe Airbus when they state they can have 10-abreast 16.9" seat widths but not that they will have 18" seats at 9-abreast. Interesting....did the plan change for Airbus on the A350 to offer more flexibility on the seats offered? Or is it the same as the 787 where airlines have a choice (limited) of seats as provided by Airbus to be installed?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
JQ, Scoot, Hong Kong Air, Air Asia X, Cebu, etc.

All these airlines have challenges making profits with their long-haul operations. This is no secret on here. Most of the airline groups you mention do make a profit but this is due to a strong domestic/short-haul performance. As per my quote we are yet to see if long-haul operations can work for LCC and if it will be sustainable in the long run, especially if oil prices rise again.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ging-2014-part-1-the-m-east-220395

http://centreforaviation.com/news/ai...27-in-2013-reports-net-loss-311426

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...actor-91-leasing-draws-near-235747

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...coot--tigerair-improvements-237749

http://www.smh.com.au/business/jetst...c-performance-20150225-13ojpg.html

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
Its not really an opinion. Air Asia X has said they will and Airbus as confirmed that 'customers' have chosen this configuration. Again, I posted it above.

We have one LCC that has ordered the A350. This airline has also ordered 55 A330neo's and operates the A330 at 9-abreast. Their order is due to more than just one factor, but you have to believe pilot commonality played its part in choosing the A350 over the 787 (all Airbus fleet for the group) and the weight advantage of the A330neo over the A350. Otherwise I would think we should have seen a further 30+ orders for Air Asia X for the A350 instead of a reduction of 5.

If more LCCs order the A350 at 10-abreast I would see it as significant but one all Airbus operator isn't a trend of all airlines thinking about moving to 10-abreast in the A350.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:54 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 89):
Quoting enzo011 (Reply 72):And low cost airlines tend to be operators of single aisle aircraft.

JQ, Scoot, Norwegian, Hong Kong Air, Air Asia X, Cebu, etc.

  

And Scoot only operate twin aisle aircraft  
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:24 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 96):
The 789 and A359 are roughly comparable in terms of seating capacity -- my understanding is that the 78J sits just below the A35J (which itself sits just below the 773) in terms of size

As the 78X is less than 1.5m longer than the A359 and they both seat 9-abreast I have them as closer in size than the A351 which is 5.5m+ longer than the 78X. I believe in most configurations the 78X will have only 4-18 seats more than the A359 but if you believe the speculative data it should have a lower trip cost so those seats would come for free if you don't need the range.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 101):
So you believe Airbus when they state they can have 10-abreast 16.9" seat widths but not that they will have 18" seats at 9-abreast.

I believe both. I am skeptical how they will get to the 16.9" 10-abreast seat but I trust Mr. Rao isn't lying. I am super confident that Airbus can fit 9-abreast 18" seat in its A350 as I believe its possible in every current Airbus product.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 101):
did the plan change for Airbus on the A350 to offer more flexibility on the seats offered? Or is it the same as the 787 where airlines have a choice (limited) of seats as provided by Airbus to be installed?

I think Airbus moved after the 787 and wanted to position themselves as a more comfortable 9-abreast option against the 787 while competing against the 777 from below. Ideal positioning if you ask me.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 101):
All these airlines have challenges making profits with their long-haul operations. This is no secret on here. Most of the airline groups you mention do make a profit but this is due to a strong domestic/short-haul performance.

They all make money that is why I chose them (except Scott; my mistake). I took out Norwegian because they don't (yet). Even Scoot just lost a modest amount in the last quarter and they are ~3 years old. I think we see where this is headed. LCC have made significant inroads in short haul and the next step is this medium/long haul and personally, I think the writing is on the wall that it is going to work. I think these airlines have a future.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 101):
If more LCCs order the A350 at 10-abreast I would see it as significant but one all Airbus operator isn't a trend of all airlines thinking about moving to 10-abreast in the A350.

Ok, that is fine but you said:

Quoting enso011 (Reply 89):
airline won't go for 10-abreast

And Airbus says they have 'customers' who have requested it.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 102):
And Scoot only operate twin aisle aircraft  

So does Air Asia X and Norwegian (long haul) but the sister companies make that a little fuzzy don't it? As I said above I think it will catch on. I think trans-Atlantic USA-Europe travel is a good example. It is not that long ago that those flights were $2000 in current dollars and Norwegian has them for close to a quarter of that. Asia is an excellent example of where it can work.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 92):
From the link below AC say that as at June 2016 they will have 12 at 36J/307Y; 5 at 36J/422Y and 7 at 36J/ 24Y+/ 398Y

Three it is! Ahead of their time.  
Quoting qf002 (Reply 96):
Diversification will happen with time -- it makes sense for airlines to keep their fleets simple while they are still relatively small.

Yes, I similarly see it as inevitable. The single brand with identical product is really not the way of the future. Its a customized product for a particular route. Airlines will have to be more efficient and nimble. Hard to picture  

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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:14 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 100):
The 77W has always been too big for VA, but due to lease arrangements and limited other options at that stage to operate routes like MEL-LAX (since cancelled) there wasn't likely much it could do. It needed the range, no really the capacity.

It is a very capable aircraft but its size just puts too much pressure on VA's yields to fill the seats.

Slightly off topic, but would the A340 600 or 777 200ER worked better for VA on reflection?

Quoting qf002 (Reply 96):
I don't expect to see a high density QF configuration until next decade. The A333s already fill that role perfectly.


I always thought the first 20 787's would be used to replace the 747 and 333s internationally, so the 333s can head to domestic start retiring the 332...

QF has always been pretty conservative with adding new destinations, so I wonder if we will actually see any new services before 2020.
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:35 am

In reflection the 77L would have been perfect for VA. At the time though they were blinded by the 77Ws CASM advantage and didn't really consider whether or not they would be able to fill the extra seats.
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qfvhoqa
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:13 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 100):
The 77W has always been too big for VA, but due to lease arrangements and limited other options at that stage to operate routes like MEL-LAX (since cancelled) there wasn't likely much it could do. It needed the range, no really the capacity.

I don't think it was the range that made VA order the 77W, rather the CASM. 77Ls would have suited MEL-LAX better.

Quoting AirNiugini (Reply 104):
Slightly off topic, but would the A340 600 or 777 200ER worked better for VA on reflection?

Definitely not an A346 - it is still too big. 77Es would be the right size for VA, but by 2007 when VA ordered their 77Ws orders for 77Es had already started to wane.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 105):
In reflection the 77L would have been perfect for VA. At the time though they were blinded by the 77Ws CASM advantage and didn't really consider whether or not they would be able to fill the extra seats.

Absolutely. Which is even more puzzling when DJ at the time was owned by freight operator Toll. No doubt Toll could have benefited from the heavy lifting a 77L would offer to LAX. I believe VA also ordered their 77W with smaller cargo doors, limiting their appeal for cargo carrying!
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aryonoco
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:37 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 105):
In reflection the 77L would have been perfect for VA.

In hindsight, VA just shouldn't have gotten the 777, period!  

How much lower is the operating cost of 77L compared to 77W? I mean, doesn't EK operate the 77W DXB-LAX with 50-seats blocked even though they also have 77L in their fleet as well?
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:38 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 87):

I sort of think yes but no too. Its going to be a smallish fleet of 787s and having two might add complexity that isn't needed.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 93):
I'd suggest the 9's for long haul and the 10's for medium haul, with the 9's configured for long haul from day one!

IMV this is what i think too. The 789s can take over JNB, SCL, SFO, start YVR perhaps, maybe do a LAX rotation too. The 330 fleet can run up into Asia and later be replaced with the 7810 (is that what we call it?)

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 94):
Regarding 787-8s, I wouldn't expect any more to be ordered by Qantas but longer term I could see new 797-9s for JQ and the 8s then going to mainline for domestic flights.

Same. Id be keen to know how the 330s are going on domestic. It was quite a jump from the 763s to the 332s in capacity.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:03 pm

The 787-10 is abbreviated to 78J (J being the 10th letter of the alphabet). The same applies to the A350-1000 (35J).

This is not without percent. The 737-700 was abbreviated to 73G as opposed to the potentially confusing 737 as G is the 7th letter, and the 737-800W is 73H.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 109):
The 787-10 is abbreviated to 78J (J being the 10th letter of the alphabet). The same applies to the A350-1000 (35J).

The official IATA code for the 787-10 is 78X and A35K for the A350-1000.
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:07 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 109):
The 787-10 is abbreviated to 78J (J being the 10th letter of the alphabet). The same applies to the A350-1000 (35J).

  

The correct abbreviations are 78X for 787-10 and 35K for the A350-1000.
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qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:32 pm

I reckon we will see a B787-9 order for QF. Initially to replace the B744 fleet and for some minor expansion to YVR, SFO, SCL and a return to BOM which has been hinted by Alan Joyce for some time. It would also fly the major Asian routes from SYD.

The -10 is way to big for QF. Period. Plus QF will want to limit subvariants of the B787 in the fleet to contain costs.
As for the -8s going from JQ to QF this won't happen and QF has announced this previously.

There will be most likely two configurations for the future QF B787-9 - A 3 Class International and later a 2 Class Domestic/International layout. The first order/tranche of B787-9s will be delivered as 3 class for ITNL missions.

The two class layout would most likely be very similar or near identical to the new A333 layout.
 
qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:48 pm

With an initial 20x B787-9 QF could do the following. Without retiring any A330s, which would be redeployed elsewhere.

SYD-HKG (2.0) -- Double Daily, Replaces Daily B744
SYD-SIN (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-BKK (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-HND (2.0) - Daily, Downtime in SYD used for Base MX, swapped with other B789s at SYD as RQD.
SYD-BOM (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SFO
SYD-SFO (1.5) - aircraft goes on to BOM
SYD-JNB (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SCL
SYD-SCL (1.5) - aircraft goes onto JNB
MEL-SYD-YVR (2.0) ---MEL tag allows for smooth single terminal transfers at SYD to SCL/YVR/SFO. Allow for a competitive (against NZ) and much improved experience for MEL based PAX.
SYD-HNL (1.0) - service moves to Daily as part of a better offering. JQ downgraded.

Last 3 frames are operational/engineering spares in line with industry best practice which is for 85-90% of aircraft in service at all times, while having enough operational slack to cover any unforeseen issues.

Average utilisation would be at least 14.0hrs which is excellent by industry standards.

On a seperate note I do reckon QF will acquire 3 more A380s for BNE-LAX and make LAX an all A380 port. It would also allow for SYD-DFW to be operated with the more efficient 575t A388s. The 2nd Daily SYD-LAX flight would be axed as a result of capacity reallignment with Daily B787-9 services to SFO and YVR from SYD.

Also when one of the engineering spares is not in Heavy Maintenance it could be used for extra seasonal services to JNB, SFO or LAX as those ports would see increased demand during peak periods. The A380 may also make seasonal appearances to JNB and SFO, in line with the needs of the QF ITNL business.

[Edited 2015-08-06 06:56:32]
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:13 pm

Quoting qf71 (Reply 112):
A 3 Class International

Do you have a view what the seat layout might be? Something close to VA at 31J/35Y+/198Y ?
 
a320fan
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
MEL tag allows for smooth single terminal transfers at SYD to SCL/YVR/SFO. Allow for a competitive (against NZ) and much improved experience for MEL based PAX.

This is an excellent idea actually. Would it also work for connections to DFW and maybe JNB(yes slight backtrack)

3 spares in a fleet of 20 brand new high value assets seems excessive however.

Also expect to see 789 into LAX from an Australian port (probably BNE) and onto JFK.


Domestically I think the 789 would be too big. But I would think A330 will be flying domestic for a long time, probably on reduced utilisation as they age. I expect they will be treated much like the 767 fleet. Will probably still be on triangle and transcons in 10 years.
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:31 pm

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 108):
Same. Id be keen to know how the 330s are going on domestic. It was quite a jump from the 763s to the 332s in capacity.

The pending reduction of domestic trans-con service in favour of increased East Coast A332 utilisation suggests they've useful in some way or another, though I didn't catch whether they want the additional capacity for passengers or freight...
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:36 pm

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
With an initial 20x B787-9 QF could do the following. Without retiring any A330s, which would be redeployed elsewhere.

Out of curiosity, how would QF configure the 789 under your scenario? I have trouble with the idea that the same aircraft/configuration is suitable for a single daily HND service as a double daily BKK service or a BOM/HNL service. Are these initial 20 aircraft all to be in the same 3 class configuration?

I'd also suggest that routes like BNE-LAX-JFK and a third daily SYD-LAX would take priority over a wholesale rollout of 787 service to Asia.

Quoting a320fan (Reply 115):
This is an excellent idea actually. Would it also work for connections to DFW and maybe JNB(yes slight backtrack)

Not sure how any of these connections are supposed to work given the YVR flight doesn't leave SYD till 5pm, well after JNB and SCL depart in the morning and DFW at lunchtime. QF has done these tag flights in the past and they just don't work -- even JQ has largely stopped doing them.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:50 pm

Regarding the seat discussion, Airbus proposed a 10-abreast A350 layout back in 2008:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...precedented-operating-cost-223853/

This was a 16.4" seat while the latest 10-abreast proposal is 16.8 or 16.9 inch, about the same as current 9-abreast A330s.

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 54):
People complaining about seat width in the 9 abreast 787 will be in for a shock when they roll out 9 abreast in the A330NEO as standard, or up the A350 to 10-abreast to keep the economics good.

The A330 is ~ 20 years old with some 120 A330 customers and only ~ 10 of them have ordered an 9-abreast economy class configuration.

I cannot see 9-abreast becoming a standard, ever. It would have happened much earlier, IMO.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 103):
And Airbus says they have 'customers' who have requested it.

Though nobody has selected 10-abreast from the catalog. Yet.

http://www.runwaygirlnetwork.com/201...10-abreast-layout-for-a350-airbus/

“So far no customer has actually selected 10-abreast,” Bausor said definitively.

Make no mistake, some charter of low cost carriers will order it. But just like 9-abreast A330's I expect the majority of the customers to stay away from this configuration.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 59):
16.9" is not too much different than EK's 17.0" 77W.

Furthermore 16.9" is the same width as Qatar's 787 fleet.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 103):
I am super confident that Airbus can fit 9-abreast 18" seat in its A350 as I believe its possible in every current Airbus product.

Otherwise 18" would not be the catalog standard.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 57):
and don't forget the 11-abreast A380.

Yes, but those are still 18".

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 59):
Over a 20+ year life cycle its hard to imagine that just 1 customer will try it.

Looking at the A330 during its 20 year life cycle, perhaps 10% of the customer base will end up with 10-abreast.
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 117):
I'd also suggest that routes like BNE-LAX-JFK and a third daily SYD-LAX would take priority over a wholesale rollout of 787 service to Asia.

Agreed. I would also add in the 2nd MEL-LAX flight and additional services to DFW

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):

On a seperate note I do reckon QF will acquire 3 more A380s for BNE-LAX and make LAX an all A380 port. It would also allow for SYD-DFW to be operated with the more efficient 575t A388s. The 2nd Daily SYD-LAX flight would be axed as a result of capacity reallignment with Daily B787-9 services to SFO and YVR from SYD

Adding the A380 to BNE-LAX would add nearly 120 extra seats a day which would be a big jump in capacity plus it would add first class to the route. The JFK tag would be better off serviced by the 789. Not sure why you think the 2nd SYD-LAX flight will be cut as North America is seen by QF as their biggest growth market so flights would be added not cut. In regards to SYD-SFO going from a 6 weekly 744 to daily 789 would be a reduction in capacity of around 350 seats per week.
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 111):

Huh, so someone on ANet made up J? The more you learn. I'm only repeating the standard shorthand used in other threads.


Regarding MEL-SYD tags, not going to happen. You can already see those tags to DFW, SCL and JNB to facilitate smooth transfers can't you? No? That should say something about the economics of operating such routes.
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Stitch
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 120):
Huh, so someone on ANet made up J?

We used it because it seemed the logical choice at the time, but now that IATA has come out with a formal code for both frames we should probably start trying to use them to burn them into our brains.  
 
a320fan
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 120):
Regarding MEL-SYD tags, not going to happen. You can already see those tags to DFW, SCL and JNB to facilitate smooth transfers can't you? No? That should say something about the economics of operating such routes.

I'd expect if SYD was a banked hub with all those long hauls leaving at a similar time there would be a case for a tag to MEL at least. Would solve the issue with having to change terminals in SYD. However I presume there is the ability to check bags through and receive your international boarding pass in the domestic terminals, and with A330 wide body flights throughout the day offering a good product for the domestic leg the only hitch to such a connection is the terminal change which having never been to SYD I wouldn't know how quick and easy that is or could be.
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qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:48 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 114):
Do you have a view what the seat layout might be? Something close to VA at 31J/35Y+/198Y ?

I am of the impression it would be 216Y/21W/36J or thereabouts. 273 Seats. 25% less than a 3 Class B744.

Quoting a320fan (Reply 115):
3 spares in a fleet of 20 brand new high value assets seems excessive however.

Not really and they wouldn't be just spares.
1 (1) would usually be allocated for Heavy Maintenance. B787-9s require a C Check every 2 years. (That for a fleet which is on average doing 14.0hrs per day per frame). When not in Heavy MX the A/C could be ued to operate extra seasonal services elsewhere, like perhaps SYD-LAX, SYD-JNB, MEL-SFO etc.

1 (2) aircraft would allow for any additional Base/Line Maintenance carried out, which cannot be carried out in the downtime available to the aircraft which would operate the next SYD-HND. This aircraft

1 (3) aircraft is an actual operational spare. To cover for any aircraft which goes U/S or any other operationally unforseen situation such as a recovery mission. Such a scenario could be another B787 which is operating SCL-SYD has an engine failure and has to divert to say PPT. This operational spare would be sent to rescue stranded at PPT. Meanwhile the other aircraft (2) which is allocated for Base MX at SYD could then fill in the schedule gap created as a result of the SCL-SYD aircraft not making it to SYD.

This would ensure that the integrity of schedules is maintained. All major airlines EK/CX/BA/LH usually run 85-90% of their fleet with 10-15% in reserve.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 117):
Out of curiosity, how would QF configure the 789 under your scenario? I have trouble with the idea that the same aircraft/configuration is suitable for a single daily HND service as a double daily BKK service or a BOM/HNL service. Are these initial 20 aircraft all to be in the same 3 class configuration?

I'd also suggest that routes like BNE-LAX-JFK and a third daily SYD-LAX would take priority over a wholesale rollout of 787 service to Asia.

They would all have the same 3 Class layout. 216Y/21W/36J. QF is scaling down it's SYD-LAX services at the moment and this is a sign of things to come. Customers want more point to point. The B787-9 will allow for QF to do this.
QF is reducing LAX to 10x Weekly very soon. Daily B787-9 services from SYD to SFO and YVR would more than replace any lost capacity from reducing SYD-LAX to a Daily A380. Also factor in SYD-DFW with a HGW A380 and voila!

The future isn't about LAX it is about opening new Destinations across the Pacific in the longterm. QF's additional B747 services to LAX in the short term are just a stop gap. Also the reason for my suggested MEL-SYD tag was to negate the need for new flights direct from MEL. And no I'm not a SYD Centric Person.

Quoting qf789 (Reply 119):
Adding the A380 to BNE-LAX would add nearly 120 extra seats a day which would be a big jump in capacity plus it would add first class to the route. The JFK tag would be better off serviced by the 789. Not sure why you think the 2nd SYD-LAX flight will be cut as North America is seen by QF as their biggest growth market so flights would be added not cut. In regards to SYD-SFO going from a 6 weekly 744 to daily 789 would be a reduction in capacity of around 350 seats per week.

SYD-SFO is only 6x Weekly during peak periods If I recall correctly. Which is a litlle over 4300 seats per week. A Daily B787-9 service would provide over 3,800 seats per week. As for a second daily SYD-LAX this will probably be replaced with AA's Daily B777 service. Any additional SFO capacity would be in the way of extra seasonal B787 or A380 flights. There is more to North America than LAX.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 120):
Regarding MEL-SYD tags, not going to happen. You can already see those tags to DFW, SCL and JNB to facilitate smooth transfers can't you? No? That should say something about the economics of operating such routes.

This is due to scheduling, lack of fleet and operational requirements. Not Economics.
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:56 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
This is due to scheduling, lack of fleet and operational requirements. Not Economics.

There's also the fact that there're soooooooo many departures on those routes that chucking a B744 or A388 into that mix isn't necessary. But economics would also play a part, in that no way is the A380 going to give you good economics on a 1:30 sector.
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:03 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
This is due to scheduling, lack of fleet and operational requirements. Not Economics

It's absolutely about economics. If QF thought they could profit from a flight between MEL T2 & SYD T1 they would find a way to fit it in the schedule.

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 124):
in that no way is the A380 going to give you good economics on a 1:30 sector.

True - the boarding time would be excessive for a short sector and the additional cycles would not be good for the A380.

A big problem is that these sectors are too hard to sell. What domestic pax wants to endure immigration & customs, not to mention the LAG restrictions, and the considerably earlier check in required. Without domestic pax to fill the plane, there aren't enough connecting pax to make the flight worthwhile.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:05 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 107):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 105):In reflection the 77L would have been perfect for VA.

In hindsight, VA just shouldn't have gotten the 777, period! How much lower is the operating cost of 77L compared to 77W? I mean, doesn't EK operate the 77W DXB-LAX with 50-seats blocked even though they also have 77L in their fleet as well?

Anybody have operating cost numbers for the following carriers on the following route:

SYD-LAX / LAX-SYD

UA: 777-200ER
DL: 777-200LR
VA: 777-300ER

That should be a somewhat fair comparison (including any penalties) of the 3 most capable 777 types on a 14-15 hr sector.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:17 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 105):
In reflection the 77L would have been perfect for VA. At the time though they were blinded by the 77Ws CASM advantage and didn't really consider whether or not they would be able to fill the extra seats.

If I remember correctly Brett Godfrey said the 777-200ER was the ideal aircraft, but with the 300ER only having slightly higher trip costs they decided to go for the bigger aircraft.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
On a seperate note I do reckon QF will acquire 3 more A380s for BNE-LAX and make LAX an all A380 port. It would also allow for SYD-DFW to be operated with the more efficient 575t A388s. The 2nd Daily SYD-LAX flight would be axed as a result of capacity reallignment with Daily B787-9 services to SFO and YVR from SYD.

Maybe QANTAS could take over all of MAS's A380 flying whist at the same time redeploying some of their aircraft on its own routes.

I think MAS will have to be fairly creative in trying to find a solution for their A380 woes!
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:30 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
SYD-SFO is only 6x Weekly during peak periods If I recall correctly. Which is a litlle over 4300 seats per week. A Daily B787-9 service would provide over 3,800 seats per week. As for a second daily SYD-LAX this will probably be replaced with AA's Daily B777 service. Any additional SFO capacity would be in the way of extra seasonal B787 or A380 flights. There is more to North America than LAX.

No SFO will be 6 weekly. Refer to link.

http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airl...francisco-to-australia-deals/us/en
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qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:33 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 125):
It's absolutely about economics. If QF thought they could profit from a flight between MEL T2 & SYD T1 they would find a way to fit it in the schedule.

The idea of a SYD-MEL tag is not about serving the Domestic Market what so ever. It is about providing competitive, efficient and smooth single terminal transfers at Sydney for Melbourne based International passengers wanting to go to San Francisco, Vancouver and Santiago on QF. It's about also enabling QF to provide a competitive one stop B787 offering for MEL pax compared to NZ too.


It could also be used as a tag for pax connecting to HND and HNL but there would be poor connections for outbound and inbound connecting pax respectively using the tag. Connections with DFW could also work, but SYD-DFW would have to be retimed for a later departure which may not be worthwhile.

MEL is Australia's second biggest International port and accounts for about 25% of total International Passengers.
Using that as a guide and assuming that each connecting B787 route from Sydney has 546 seats daily, a single B787 tag to MEL could be easily filled with connecting passengers, while not affecting the MEL-LAX flight.

SYD-SFO+YVR+SCL = 1638/4 = 409 PAX
SYD-DFW = 968/4 = 242 PAX
= 651 PAX which means there should be more than enough demand in theory.

As for HND with the future downgauge to a B787, we might see QF reintroduce SYD-KIX with an A330 3x Weekly with a late night departure ex SYD and a morning departure from KIX and the re-introduction of a 4x Weekly SIN red eye??.

[Edited 2015-08-06 21:39:33]

[Edited 2015-08-06 21:45:01]
 
qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:42 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 128):
No SFO will be 6 weekly. Refer to link.

http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airl...francisco-to-australia-deals/us/en

Thanks for that. Still the B747 is just a stop gap and not the right aircraft for that route in long run.

So we will probably see a daily SYD-SFO and a seasonal MEL-SFO both with B787-9's

Also with a future daily SYD-YVR service could QF also consider doing a SFO-YVR shuttle? Just as a way of making a few more dollars, instead of having the aircraft sit on the ground as they do have the traffic rights to run such a route.
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:53 am

I didn't see this article shared unless I missed it...

Qantas recently considered Airbus A350, staying with Boeing 787

Qantas has taken a second look at the Airbus A350 as part of its future fleet, CEO Alan Joyce says, but the airline decided to stick with the Boeing 787-9.

Speaking at this week's CAPA 2015 Australia Pacific Aviation Summit in Sydney, Joyce confirmed that the A350 was recently weighed up against the Boeing 787, with Qantas running the numbers on both of the next-gen jetliners.

"We looked at both types of aircraft, on what the relative positions of the A350 and Boeing 787 were, and we found on all accounts the 787-9 was the better aircraft for us, for the market that we're talking about and the network that we're talking about" Joyce said.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-recen...irbus-a350-staying-with-boeing-787

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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:35 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
216Y/21W/36J or thereabouts

So you see SYD-BKK is going to go from 30J/267Y a day to 72J/42W/432Y a day? And SYD-HND dropping from 58J/36W/270Y to 36J/21W/216Y? Seems like utter madness to me, but each to their own I guess.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
QF is reducing LAX to 10x Weekly very soon.

No they're not, they are increasing it to 17wk with capacity rising from 858 seats per day to an average of 954 per day.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 129):
It is about providing competitive, efficient and smooth single terminal transfers at Sydney for Melbourne based International passengers wanting to go to San Francisco, Vancouver and Santiago on QF.

How will these transfers be competitive, efficient or smooth when QF's flight to SFO departs SYD at 1500, YVR at 1700, SCL at 1130, HND at 2030, HNL at 2225 and DFW at 1350?

Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
And no I'm not a SYD Centric Person.

You say that, yet every single one of the routes you list is from SYD (with a token SYD-MEL tag thrown in). Where is the BNE-DFW, MEL-HND, PER-DXB etc?

I personally see QF focusing on SYD initially, but beyond the first dozen frames would be hoping for a bit of love outside their main international port (ie BNE-DFW or BNE-DXB would be far more valuable than a double daily SYD-BKK service).
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:43 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 129):
The idea of a SYD-MEL tag is not about serving the Domestic Market what so ever

I realise that. But if QF felt there were sufficient pax wanting this option they would have done so by now. It's cheaper for QF to place these pax connecting from MEL onto regular domestic services, as these flights are running anyway. QF's average domestic seat factor is ~75%. So there's more than enough room for these MEL pax on existing services.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 129):
MEL is Australia's second biggest International port and accounts for about 25% of total International Passengers.

You can't then link that to 25% of SYD pax originating in MEL. If that were the case then 15% of pax originate in BNE, 12.5% originate in PER and so on. Leaving SYD O&D pax at ~40%. I doubt any airline at SYD carries 60% connecting traffic.
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:58 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):

With an initial 20x B787-9 QF could do the following. Without retiring any A330s, which would be redeployed elsewhere.

SYD-HKG (2.0) -- Double Daily, Replaces Daily B744
SYD-SIN (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-BKK (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-HND (2.0) - Daily, Downtime in SYD used for Base MX, swapped with other B789s at SYD as RQD.
SYD-BOM (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SFO
SYD-SFO (1.5) - aircraft goes on to BOM
SYD-JNB (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SCL
SYD-SCL (1.5) - aircraft goes onto JNB
MEL-SYD-YVR (2.0) ---MEL tag allows for smooth single terminal transfers at SYD to SCL/YVR/SFO. Allow for a competitive (against NZ) and much improved experience for MEL based PAX.
SYD-HNL (1.0) - service moves to Daily as part of a better offering. JQ downgraded.

If the first 20 are in a 3 class configuration, BKK, SIN and BOM (if and when), will most likely be served by the A330 until the higher density 787 configuration is online. Premium Economy doesn't make sense in those markets from Australia... Even in BOM is served direct.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
On a seperate note I do reckon QF will acquire 3 more A380s for BNE-LAX and make LAX an all A380 port.

I still don't think we will ever see a regular QF A380 service out of Brisbane... I happy to be wrong though.
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:10 am

Quoting AirNiugini (Reply 134):
I still don't think we will ever see a regular QF A380 service out of Brisbane... I happy to be wrong though.

If you look at Brisbane Airport traffic stats they have enough demand for two A380 LAX flights per day (one incoming, one outgoing).

At some stage the market is going to come for A380 flights.
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:23 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 135):

If VA pulled out of the BNE-LAX market then sure... But when VA, NZ and soon AC are also chipping into this space, I think the A380 will be over-kill unless something drastic happens in the market over the next 5-10 years.   
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qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:30 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 132):
So you see SYD-BKK is going to go from 30J/267Y a day to 72J/42W/432Y a day? And SYD-HND dropping from 58J/36W/270Y to 36J/21W/216Y? Seems like utter madness to me, but each to their own I guess

You would probably say I was mad if I would suggest the A380 for HND. Don't forget ANA is entering the market shortly too and this may mean QF and JL lose a few pax. Yes I do realise SYD-BKK is a daily A333, it was just an idea. Still recon QF should replace EK on the route like I said in a previous thread and use the A333 from that route to operate 2x Daily SYD-CHC as it would overall lead to an increase of EK/QF capacity on the SYD-CHC route.

And what's to say QF might launch additional services to other Japanese port from SYD, it would give QF a point of difference between other carriers flying between Sydney and Japan and maybe even win back pax they lost to the likes of CX when they axed Sydney - Osaka and Nagoya a number of years ago.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 132):
Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
QF is reducing LAX to 10x Weekly very soon.

No they're not, they are increasing it to 17wk with capacity rising from 858 seats per day to an average of 954 per day.

QF are not increasing SYD-LAX with their own metal. They have actually cut 4x Weekly flights with the capacity to being reallocated to SYD-SFO inline with their future pacific strategy. American Airlines is adding a new daily flight to LAX and between QF and AA they will operate 17 flights per week between Sydney and Los Angeles. But this will probably change in the future to 14x with further fragmentation of the QF Pacific network once YVR and SFO become Daily B787-9 services in the future.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 132):
How will these transfers be competitive, efficient or smooth when QF's flight to SFO departs SYD at 1500, YVR at 1700, SCL at 1130, HND at 2030, HNL at 2225 and DFW at 1350?

Well the idea is the tag flight would Depart SYD at say 0830 Arr MEL 1000 Dep MEL 1130 and ARR SYD 1300.
I did say DFW could be retimed, along with flights any other flight for that matter. For example the SCL flight departs at 1130 because it is operated by the B747 that usually operates HND-SYD. It only operates 3-4x weekly because the other 3 days gives time for QF to conduct schedules Base Maintenance on the B747 fleet at SYD.

HNL still departs at 1945 some days. The tag is more to cater for SFO,YVR and SCL and about remaining competitive with NZ.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 132):
You say that, yet every single one of the routes you list is from SYD (with a token SYD-MEL tag thrown in). Where is the BNE-DFW, MEL-HND, PER-DXB etc?

I am realistic and look at it from a business and operational perspective. BTW none of the routes you mentioned would work. There is not enough demand for PER-DXB, the market infact is saturated.

Traffic rights and slots are not available for MEL-HND and the QF Group already has JQ operating MEL-NRT.

There is no market for a daily BNE-DFW and it would be operationally nonviable to ferry aircraft between BNE and SYD on a regular basis. Slots and gate space at BNE are also an issue. QF would be better upgauging BNE-LAX to an A380, while destroying VA on the route. Also from both and operational and business sense it is more appropriate for the A380 to replace the B747 on the route, especially now that LAX is where the majority of QF A380 Base Maintenance work is carried out and it would enable QF to shuffle the aircraft at LAX with out having to ferry them empty in Australia. It would also mean lower engineering costs - think spares, training etc.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 133):
I realise that. But if QF felt there were sufficient pax wanting this option they would have done so by now. It's cheaper for QF to place these pax connecting from MEL onto regular domestic services, as these flights are running anyway. QF's average domestic seat factor is ~75%. So there's more than enough room for these MEL pax on existing services.

'

Of course, but I am talking about the future not the present. Especially if patronage continues to increase of the SYD-MEL services it would makes sense to alleviate some of the pressure by running a seperate tag flight.
 
qf71
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:46 am

Quoting AirNiugini (Reply 134):
If the first 20 are in a 3 class configuration, BKK, SIN and BOM (if and when), will most likely be served by the A330 until the higher density 787 configuration is online. Premium Economy doesn't make sense in those markets from Australia... Even in BOM is served direct.

Well when QF ran a daily A333 and B744 (QF5/6) on SYD-SIN prior to the retirement of more B747s they had about 176 J Class Seats and 72 W Class seats on the route daily. There are quite a few Oneworld FF who connect onto BA flights at SIN and of course those who like to fly W.

If they ran with a twice daily B787 service they would have 144 J Seats and 84 W Seats. This would mean a total of 228 Premium Seats (J/W) on the SYD-SIN route everyday which is still 20 seats less than what QF offered when they operated a B744 and A333 on the route daily. In saying that Y Capacity would be reduced, but whats to say a third QF frequency with an A330 might be added or could JQ be thrown into the mix to accomodate the lower end of the market?

When QF operated SYD-BOM previously with an A332 they were configured with 36 J Seats, so it can work. Mumbai is a premium market and QF operating a daily service there would hurt SQ a bit. The reason why QF axed the route apart from industrial issues was that the A332 was not good for flights over 11hrs. This was the same reason QF axed AKL-LAX and of course the A332s were deployed where they could make profitable revenue.
 
tayser
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
With an initial 20x B787-9 QF could do the following. Without retiring any A330s, which would be redeployed elsewhere.

SYD-HKG (2.0) -- Double Daily, Replaces Daily B744
SYD-SIN (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-BKK (2.0) - Double Daily
SYD-HND (2.0) - Daily, Downtime in SYD used for Base MX, swapped with other B789s at SYD as RQD.
SYD-BOM (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SFO
SYD-SFO (1.5) - aircraft goes on to BOM
SYD-JNB (1.5) - aircraft goes onto SCL
SYD-SCL (1.5) - aircraft goes onto JNB
MEL-SYD-YVR (2.0) ---MEL tag allows for smooth single terminal transfers at SYD to SCL/YVR/SFO. Allow for a competitive (against NZ) and much improved experience for MEL based PAX.
Quoting qf71 (Reply 129):

The idea of a SYD-MEL tag is not about serving the Domestic Market what so ever. It is about providing competitive, efficient and smooth single terminal transfers at Sydney for Melbourne based International passengers wanting to go to San Francisco, Vancouver and Santiago on QF. It's about also enabling QF to provide a competitive one stop B787 offering for MEL pax compared to NZ too.

That's all very nice and good from an operational point of view but you're forgetting something.

Melbourne - the city itself - will have closed the population and therefore economic gap on Sydney by the time they have a decent sized 789 fleet - creating more demand on direct flights out of Melbourne.

Tullamarine now equates for 25% of all international traffic to/from Australia and matches Victoria's population share of AU (25%) - all the investment in new/expanded terminals and an extra runway is being done for one reason: they're expecting the same levels of growth.

The advent of these planes like 787s and 350s was supposed to making longer and thinner direct/point-to-point routes more viable and given the population / city growth steamroller in Melbourne is showing zero signs of abating any time soon (as Vic state governments of both political colours continually pursue the same growth policy) if Qantas doesn't actually start many of those city pairs you mentioned from Melbourne within 10-15 years they'll bleed market share from Melbourne (jnt) even more.

It's going to be an ongoing conundrum for Qantas for the rest of this decade and the entirety of the next, Sydney's relevancy as a gateway for the country has been slowly declining as Melbourne & Brisbane increase their international market share and as QF's international operations appear to have turned a corner and an order is pending for more efficient aircraft, why would you continually focus on Sydney?
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:53 pm

You are well out with your timeframe for Melbourne catching up with Sydney. In 2008-9 there was talk of by 2030, but since 2010 Melbourne has grown slower than Sydney and the last estimate I saw had blown the date back out to 2050. And you are definitely incorrect to say that if Melbourne matches Sydney demographically it will politically. Sydney will always be this countries largest banking and finance centre, and that won't change any time soon.

I am not a Sydneysider before anyone accuses me of getting in an ego measuring competition.


With regards to you other points:

(1) QF cannot fly from MEL to everywhere you want them to. It isn't possible. This comes from Qantas' position as an end of the line carrier. Air India can fly to DEL and fill the plane with connections, outside India even, if they can't fill the plane with MEL-DEL connections. QF can't. UA could fly MEL-SFO and fill the plane with connections over one of their largest hubs. QF can't. Qantas will never be a large global airline, their home market is too small and they lack the scope and connectivity to compete on longer, thinner routes into other carriers hubs. Where they stand the best chance is hubbing their own traffic, drawing on their own connections from BNE and MEL.

(2) Qantas won't become any more or less relevant for those that matter: corporate clients and top tier frequent flyers. Whether they are locked in to Qantas or Virgin's even worse international presence, the premium passengers aren't so fickle as to bolt because QF don't provide a direct flight to CAN or BOM.


Someone mentioned up thread that the reason that there isn't a flight from MEL to SYD was because of availability not economics. They could have run a connection yesterday with an A330 yesterday if they wanted to. It doesn't need to be the same aircraft. Hell it could be a 737, who needs a lie flat on a 60 minute flight. The premium came from the alleged convenience rather than the product.

The problem is that the revenue of the route will be so terrible it actually makes my head hurt thinking about it. Unless QF could massively increase the YIELD (not passenger numbers) of MEL originating aircraft then there is no way the numbers stack up. On a longhaul ticket the vast majority (generally 90%+) of the revenue is booked against the international flight. Domestic connections earn cents on the dollar. This isn't just Qantas, this is industry standard. So you have an aircraft full if $10 fares. You cannot cross subsidize using the O&D traffic that has paid 200% more as nobody other than some av geeks wants to fly from the international terminal. What you end up with is a flight which is so horribly loss making it is amusing. Hence why I said it would need to increase yield. If Qantas could squeeze an average of $200 more for their convenient same terminal connection then the numbers might start stacking up, with the increased revenue on a system wide basis justifying the loss leader.
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AirNiugini
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sat Aug 08, 2015 8:47 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 138):
Well when QF ran a daily A333 and B744 (QF5/6) on SYD-SIN prior to the retirement of more B747s they had about 176 J Class Seats and 72 W Class seats on the route daily. There are quite a few Oneworld FF who connect onto BA flights at SIN and of course those who like to fly W

Yeah I guess so. Still have doubts on Premium Y for QF anywhere in South East Asia and feel that a 3 class Dreamliner will be wasted on such routes. Two class will work amazingly. And those BA customers can still fly Premium Y out of SYD, or out of other Aussie ports with CX. The market dynamic has changed, and will not all of a sudden change back to suit QF.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 138):
When QF operated SYD-BOM previously with an A332 they were configured with 36 J Seats, so it can work. Mumbai is a premium market and QF operating a daily service there would hurt SQ a bit. The reason why QF axed the route apart from industrial issues was that the A332 was not good for flights over 11hrs. This was the same reason QF axed AKL-LAX and of course the A332s were deployed where they could make profitable revenue.

Who knows what will happen, but Premium Economy and India...       Not for the QF model anyway. The market has changed a lot since QF last operated into BOM, and even then it was not profitable.
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Ruscoe
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:56 am

Qantas has had a credit rating upgrade so another hurdle to 787 order is coming down.

Ruscoe
 
Ditzyboy
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:28 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 84):
You're pretty much describing AA Main Cabin Extra without the extra legroom. While it will pain every Platinum Frequent Flyer to hear this, as Qantas offers a real Premium Economy product such a product will not be offered.

You are assuming that Premium Economy would be offered on the 789. Also, the whole point of my suggestion was in response to the debate over 8 or 9 abreast standard economy seating. I was suggesting a section of 8 abreast standard economy seating to improve the experience for the airline's most valuable customers who travel in regular economy and do not want to pay 50% more for Premium Economy.

The precedent is there in both the historical Lauda and Finnair configurations, and currently in the way Qantas' own systems allocate preferred seats (and block centre seats where possible) to high value customers.

I agree that the prevalent 9 abreast is required for reasons of economics (and it is very likely what Qantas will choose), but I do think that 8 abreast is what customers expect/prefer and certainly what loyal high value customers deserve. Note that what I am talking about is merely the same seat model, just wider, and no separate cabin or increased amenity. I am not saying that this will happen - just what I think should happen.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 12:04 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 57):
I don't think the A330neo and the A350 will standardize around their larger configurations, at least not in the medium term

Agreed. The 10 abreast only makes sense for a regional 350 because of range restrictions, not comfort restrictions.

Ruscoe
 
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RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 138):
Well when QF ran a daily A333 and B744 (QF5/6) on SYD-SIN prior to the retirement of more B747s they

I think this market is going to further fragment. Scott could start taking over some of sia flying, with some of that flying to destination locations (i.e. Gold Coast).

I think we are only just starting to see what P2P actually means. I'd suggest in 2-3 years time airports and some airlines will need to make fundamental structural change to their businesses to remain relevant.

.....and this is where QF has an advantage. Its restructuring, even though painful has plenty if upside once the market starts to move.
 
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RayChuang
Posts: 8139
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:19 am

I think QF will order a mix of 787-9 and 787-10--the 787-10 will fly from SYD/MEL to most destinations in eastern Asia.
 
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qf2220
Posts: 2041
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:24 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 113):
Last 3 frames are operational/engineering spares
Quoting qf71 (Reply 123):
1 (3) aircraft is an actual operational spare. To cover for any aircraft which goes U/S or any other operationally unforseen situation such as a recovery mission.

QF isn't every airline and i think 3 spares will be too many for them. Id suspect some of them may do some domestic flying instead of sit around waiting for another frame to go u/s. They will still earn revenue, and can be taken off domestic and put onto an int sector as needed (esp if they are kept close by on the SYD-MEL-BNE routes. Any domestic pax can be rescheduled onto the many flights running in the triangle and if this happens, any slack in the 738 fleet can taken to support the 789 fleet. Perhaps the MEL tag could operate but with this ac?
 
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EK413
Posts: 5645
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:56 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 142):
Credit rating upgrade for Qantas

Qantas Airways' credit rating has been boosted due to its improved financial performance.

Moody's upgraded the senior unsecured ratings of Qantas Airways from Ba2 from Ba1, which reflects improved financial expectations.

'The upgrade ... reflects the considerable progress Qantas has made in improving its financial and operating profile, which has allowed the company to reduce debt levels including secured debt in its capital structure,' the ratings agency said.
- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/business/b...r-qantas.html#sthash.C0SnBnsy.dpuf

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
qantas747
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 12:51 pm

RE: Qantas 787-9 Order Soon?

Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:58 am

I for one, just cannot wait to see how this all unfolds! Wuth the next credit boost, this order must happen at the results!

I think QF will continue to fragment the US market, but also use the 789 to open up some other routes
(ie ADL,CNS services to LAX; SYD-LIM)

I also think that the 789's will free up some of the 330's to open other routes as well as taking over some current 744 routes
(This also assume an order for 3-4 HGW 388's)

I can see in 3-5 years time once the first 20 have been delivered
Americas:

SYD-LAX 388 AM, 789PM(5pw)
SYD-DFW 388HGW Daily
SYD-YVR 789 Daily
SYD-SFO 789 Daily
SYD-SCL 789 Daily
SYD-HNL 332 Daily
MEL-LAX 388 Daily, 789PM (3pw)
BNE-LAX 789 Daily (on to ny) possible PM service 2-3pw
BNE-DFW 789 High Season 3pw possible
ADL-LAX 789 4pw
CNS-LAX 789 2-3pw (helps to counter the drop in capacity ex BNE and gives a great inbound option to US pax)

SYD-LIM 789 3pw

Asia:
SYD-SIN 333 Twice Daily
SYD-BKK 333 Daily
SYD-HND 744 Daily
SYD-HKG 388 Daily
SYD-PEK 789 3pw to Daily
SYD-PVG 333 Daily
SYD-BOM 789 Daily
SYD-JKT 332 Daily
SYD-MNL 332 Daily

MEL-SIN 333 Daily
MEL-HKG 333 Daily
MEL-PVG 332 Daily

BNE-SIN 333 Daily
BNE-NRT 332 Daily
BNE-HKG 333 Daily

PER-SIN (I'm a bit torn here) 738 Twice Daily, or 332 Daily
PER-HKG/NRT 332 3-4/wk

Africas/Middle East/Europe
SYD-DXB-LHR 388 Daily
MEL-DXB-LHR 388 Daily
BNE-DXB 789 Daily (despite the additional capacity added there recently, I think there is a market for a 3-4PM service ex BNE... however this would be against the QF/EK JV where QF need to be operating 388s


SYD-JNB 789 Daily (744 until ETOPS approval)
PER-JNB 332 4pw (takes into account lower capacity ex SYD to pick up MEL/ADL/BNE connections)
Seasonal MEL-JNB perhaps?


This plan only uses up 16 or 17 789's so who knows, maybe a AKL-LAX flight gets dropped in there (although I think that might be more of an AA flight)

Aaagh I have to spot speculating and just wait for that announcement!

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