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wnflyguy
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Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:58 pm

Next WN schedule extension is coming soon.
Rumors are a buzz that a new international Mexican destination will be announced.

Speculation are between ZIH ,CZM and GDL.

I'm predicting GDL.

But both ZIH and CZM were former FL charter destination.

Enjoy Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:01 pm

I have doubts about GDL. CZM on the other hand may have some potential. Still hoping for PTY soon.
 
SWADawg
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:36 pm

My guess would be CZM also. I think the near term International strategy for WN is to knock off all near International beach destinations in Mexico that B6 isn't currently flying to. Read into that whatever you want.  
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):

They will get demolished in GDL with their limited ability to sell in foreign currency.

It's either CZM or some other destination where there are a lot of Americans. ZIH is tiny. FL went there???
 
usflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:11 pm

New/Returning:
DCA-OMA
ATL-IAD
DAY-TPA
CLE-MCO
FNT-RSW
CLE-RSW
BUF-RSW
ALB-RSW
MCI-RSW
MSP-RSW
MSP-TPA
MSP-MCO
MDW-PBI

SAN-STL is back... again.

Ending:
IAD-MDW
IAD-SAN


There are quite a few holes and lots of aircraft time not scheduled, so I'm guessing there is an announcement or two coming.

RSW gets 17 additional flights with this schedule.

ATL loses 2 DCA flights and MDW loses 1, while OMA picks up 1 flight and MCO picks up 2 additional DCA flights.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
AWACSooner
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:23 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
DCA-OMA

Complete crap that OKC has yet to get a DCA flight, but they keep adding them to other cities...

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
IAD-MDW
IAD-SAN

So what's left of their IAD operation?
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
SAN-STL is back... again

Yep, the strange, peculiar seasonal route that really isn't...

SAN also took a hit on freq on several routes, inc the fairly new SEA service that started less than a year ago with 3 daily r/t, and now seems to be at 2. DL and WN both started SAN-SEA about the same time, up against AS of course, and looks like we have the first blink. (These all in addition to the axing of SAN-IAD of course.)

So far looking like WN's 2016 in SAN will look a lot like 2015, and that's not very exciting...

Nice to see a new route at OMA, to the east coast (DCA.)

bb

[Edited 2015-08-11 08:29:28]
 
sdoyon
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 5):
Complete crap that OKC has yet to get a DCA flight, but they keep adding them to other cities...

I also find this interesting--maybe OMA is more viable because F9 is no longer there? On 3/21 it looks like there is only 1 other n/s, which is DL on an E70 for $354. Same day to OKC can be had for as little as $172 with a stop in MSP.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:49 pm

Bill Owen got up early this morning and has already written his blog about this schedule extension (including a .pdf summary in chart form:
Here's the link to the blog:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/attenti...rs-schedules-are-open-for-booking/
And here's the link to the summary chart:
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/here.pdf

(He does mention the IAD situation btw.) (Including the fact that IAD-SAN now becomes another of those strange seasonal routes...)

bb
 
flyiguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 5):
So what's left of their IAD operation?

New Schedule will be

DEN 3X
LAS 1 X
ATL 2 X

Old Schedule was

DEN 3X
LAS 1 X
MDW 2 X
SAN 1X

FLY
The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 8):
(Including the fact that IAD-SAN now becomes another of those strange seasonal routes...)

And, as with all of WN's seasonal SAN-routes, I'll be interested to see exactly what, in WN's opinion, 'The Season' for SAN-IAD will be...

BTW, is SAN-MKE another? (I see that isn't back next March either... And I don't really expect to see it return ever.)

bb
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
ATL-IAD

LOL. They are lost in IAD. They pulled ATL-DCA capacity to help this succeed? Good luck...

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
CLE-MCO

How many airlines now?

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
IAD-MDW
IAD-SAN

ROTFL. They can't make IAD-MDW work? That's just sad.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
MCO picks up 2 additional DCA flights.

The 3 adds tell me that DCA is disappointing. OMA does nothing for their network, it's an oddball. MCO is where you put slots when you run out of ideas.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 5):
So what's left of their IAD operation?
Quoting SANFan (Reply 8):
IAD-SAN now becomes another of those strange seasonal routes
Quoting flyiguy (Reply 9):
New Schedule will be

DEN 3X
LAS 1 X
ATL 2 X

Old Schedule was

DEN 3X
LAS 1 X
MDW 2 X
SAN 1X

Nobody can make IAD work. They should just leave. They only stay to dissuade others from trying something there.

SAN was crazy from Day 1 and if that comes back I'll be shocked. No idea why they thought that would be a good route. They are super-weak at IAD if they can't even make MDW work. Far too weak for SAN.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 10):
'The Season' for SAN-IAD will be...

July 13-15
 
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knope2001
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:21 pm

MKE is net +1 from last year at 47/day, showing the standard increases from the January/February period. Year-over-year DEN and DAL are each +1, however MKE-MSY which returned mid-March last year isn't back on this schedule. It's done for the 2015 season now but is still on the route map, so perhaps it's still coming back in April. The number of 737-800's looks to be by up a bit, but this year the extra capacity of the 738 is mostly focused west to PHX, LAS and DEN, where last year Florida still had some. The big Saturday push to Florida is back, with Southwest running 20 nonstops from MKE to MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW every Saturday.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 10):
BTW, is SAN-MKE another? (I see that isn't back next March either... And I don't really expect to see it return ever.)

The Saturday-only SAN-MKE was introduced with the 2015 late spring schedule and continued in the summer schedule. So it's actually the next schedule release where it would show up if it's coming back in 2016 similar to 2015.

Quoting flyiguy (Reply 9):
New Schedule will be

DEN 3X
LAS 1 X
ATL 2 X

An curious addition IAD-ATL. Dulles-Atlanta struggled on AirTran with the ATL hub, and DCA-ATL is generally lackluster when it comes to loads. Atlanta additions to Hartford, Norfolk and Louisville didn't stick around too long, and I wouldn't have expected Dulles to be tried again.

[Edited 2015-08-11 09:25:58]
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 8):
Bill Owen got up early this morning and has already written his blog about this schedule extension (including a .pdf summary in chart form:

I really wish he'd do year over year, March to January is a completely useless comparison.
 
ATAIndy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:25 pm

+1 frequency on IND-BWI, RSW, HOU, LAS, and TPA for 5 more flights daily. WN is pulling away as the largest carrier at IND now since surpassing DL last winter.
Boiler up!
 
usairways85
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:34 pm

PHL-FLL is down 1 to 1 flt/day
....also have B6 &AA along with F9 on MIA-PHL
PHL-MCO is up 1 to 4 flts/day
...also have ~13 combined flights on F9 & AA
PHL-TPA is up 1 to 3 flts/day

...of course these adds are all during the busy spring break season
 
jetblue1965
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:39 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 15):
PHL-FLL is down 1 to 1 flt/day
....also have B6 &AA along with F9 on MIA-PHL
PHL-MCO is up 1 to 4 flts/day
...also have ~13 combined flights on F9 & AA
PHL-TPA is up 1 to 3 flts/day

...of course these adds are all during the busy spring break season

Thanks. Can you give a quick summary for the frequencies of each of the carriers on the 3 routes so we can see how WN stacks up to the 800 lb gorilla ?
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 12):
An curious addition IAD-ATL. Dulles-Atlanta struggled on AirTran with the ATL hub, and DCA-ATL is generally lackluster when it comes to loads. Atlanta additions to Hartford, Norfolk and Louisville didn't stick around too long, and I wouldn't have expected Dulles to be tried again.

They don't want to close IAD and are grabbing at straws. It will be awful.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:41 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 13):
I really wish he'd do year over year, March to January is a completely useless comparison.

Maybe it wouldn't look as impressive for the carrier? Doing it as they do, especially at this time of year -- March over January -- there are going to be a lot of +s. (In the fall, such as comparing October with, say, August, it might not work out so well as there would generally be lots more reductions on routes.)

But I agree with you, y-o-y is much more meaningful; it eliminates the whole 'seasonal adjustments' thing. I always do y-o-y when I do my own schedule comparisons.

bb
 
lakeeffect
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
CLE-MCO

How many airlines now?


5 carriers on peak days: UA, F9, NK, DL, and now WN all to MCO from CLE. I don't know why WN even bothered to add this seasonal route back with that kind of competition.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:20 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
SAN was crazy from Day 1 and if that comes back I'll be shocked. No idea why they thought that would be a good route. They are super-weak at IAD if they can't even make MDW work. Far too weak for SAN.

There's a subtle factor here which I've addressed before. I think WN is very interested in DCA-SAN but of course they can't get it (until there's another Congressional hearing) so they are trying to serve the WAS-SAN market as thoroughly as possible thru BWI (double daily) as well as IAD. Without a n/s between Reagan and SAN, the many people flying to SAN from DC have to fly n/s either from BWI, or Dulles, or spend an extra hour or 2 (and usually a change of plane) to fly from DCA. (WN even has DCA-SAN covered as well as possible with a permanent, direct, no-change r/t via AUS which they've flown since the last Congressional hearing in 2012.)

And, WN is big and popular enough in SAN to try to get some of UA's O&D business (as the only other carrier with any n/s service between SAN and WAS.)

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 12):
The Saturday-only SAN-MKE was introduced with the 2015 late spring schedule and continued in the summer schedule. So it's actually the next schedule release where it would show up if it's coming back in 2016 similar to 2015

I do realize that. But I think if WN were really serious about the route, why not offer it least during Spring Break? Heck, it's one day a week! (And if they were testing the market, I don't get why they wouldn't do so all year anyway, especially as a Sat-only experiment.)

bb
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:24 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 19):
5 carriers on peak days: UA, F9, NK, DL, and now WN all to MCO from CLE. I don't know why WN even bothered to add this seasonal route back with that kind of competition.

UA shouldn't be in it and neither should WN.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 20):
I think WN is very interested in DCA-SAN but of course they can't get it (until there's another Congressional hearing)

I think you are correct, but they rushed into this route right after F9 added a bunch of IAD flights. Now they are adding ATL-IAD which is another F9 route. They are just chasing F9 I think. F9 only has two routes from IAD this Winter. MCO and ATL. This is no coincidence.
 
jetmatt777
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 5):

Complete crap that OKC has yet to get a DCA flight, but they keep adding them to other cities...


Especially when a few years ago, WN put together a huge presentation to the federal government that OKC-DCA is a top priority in receiving nonstop service. They gathered signatures from major political figures in both states, as well as signatures and letters of recommendations from many large businesses in Oklahoma speaking to the benefit of that service.

Then when they get a slot available, they park it to OMA. Figures.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:39 pm

Fortunately Enilria is kind enough to pull YOY comparisons for airlines like Southwest which roll out (mostly) unchanging schedules in chunks.

Quoting ATAIndy (Reply 14):
+1 frequency on IND-BWI, RSW, HOU, LAS, and TPA for 5 more flights daily. WN is pulling away as the largest carrier at IND now since surpassing DL last winter.

This is a good example. IND-BWI is going +1 from 2 to 3, but last year it was 4x so year-over-year it's -1. The other four are ramping back up to the same level as 2015. True year-over-year increases at Indy such as LGA and BOS don't show in Southwest's comparison.

What I find particular interesting in the grid of updates Southwest gives us (which I still appreciate very much even through they are not YOY) are changes contrary to the tide. Some schedules like end-of-summer and post-New Years are classic reduction schedules, so markets which show increases on those schedule changes are probably representing meaty, non-seasonal adjustments. This spring peak schedule is a classic increase schedule, so reductions in this schedule are against the tide. I'd be hard pressed to come up with a single market which is naturally stronger in Jan/Feb than March, so cuts which show up in this Southwest comparison grid are things they elected to still fly in Jan/Feb but pulled for March/April. Here are some trims of note where they are flying less in March than Jan/Feb:

RDU-TPA 3 to 2
BOS-MCI 2 to 1
MSP-DEN 5 to 4
FLL-PHL 2 to 1
FLL-TPA 5 to 4
BWI-BNA 6 to 5
HOU-AUS 5 to 4
SEA-SMF 3 to 2
SEA-SAN 3 to 2
SEA-SAN 3 to 2

Those aren't the only trims (though there aren't a ton more) but these especially seem like markets which would be strong during this spring break schedule and/or are markets where the frequencies might be thin for business travel. Undoubtedly there's more of interest in the details of the increases/decreases through the new schedule including more YOY comparison. But these reductions in a classic growth schedule are noteworthy to me.
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:02 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
Fortunately Enilria is kind enough to pull YOY comparisons for airlines like Southwest which roll out (mostly) unchanging schedules in chunks.

 
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
This spring peak schedule is a classic increase schedule, so reductions in this schedule are against the tide.

Good point

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
RDU-TPA 3 to 2
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
MSP-DEN 5 to 4
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
FLL-TPA 5 to 4
BWI-BNA 6 to 5

Looking at the "pre" level of capacity, I'm not surprised those were cut. It seems like too much in each case.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
HOU-AUS 5 to 4

Conversely, didn't they used to fly this a lot more?

BTW, I was listening to a podcast out of AUS and the host took VX to DAL and was talking about how "it must not be doing very well". Pretty funny to the people on this board to have a non-airline geek commenting because the route is so obviously poorly performing.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
SEA-SMF 3 to 2
SEA-SAN 3 to 2

DL/AS war retreat?

I never understood the WN SAN build-up of a year or two ago.
 
ROCDLFAN
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:08 pm

ROC-MCO 1 to 2
ROC-TPA 1 to 2

Placing ROC with a total of 7 daily flights. Very impressed to see this type of increase, in what once seemed to be a "dying market."
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:11 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
RDU-TPA 3 to 2
BOS-MCI 2 to 1
MSP-DEN 5 to 4
FLL-PHL 2 to 1
FLL-TPA 5 to 4
BWI-BNA 6 to 5
HOU-AUS 5 to 4
SEA-SMF 3 to 2
SEA-SAN 3 to 2
SEA-SAN 3 to 2

I will again mention that the SEA-SAN market is relatively new -- started 6/8/14 -- and this reduction might be a downward capacity adjustment due to competitive pressure, BUT the timing does seem odd. If WN wanted/needed to reduce their capacity on the route, why not at least wait until after Spring Break?...

Just some more of that "New Southwest" reasoning that is hard for the rest of us to figure out!

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
I think you are correct, but they rushed into this route right after F9 added a bunch of IAD flights. Now they are adding ATL-IAD which is another F9 route. They are just chasing F9 I think. F9 only has two routes from IAD this Winter. MCO and ATL. This is no coincidence.

Yes, it was discussed at the time of WN adding IAD-SAN (and IAD-LAS as well) that it might have had something to do with F9's jump into the Dulles market and WN was trying to grab some of that as well. F9 did not go for either of these 2 destinations from IAD at that time of course, and who knows if they are still interested in Dulles or not.

But I still think that WN could make IAD-SAN work simply based on the peculiarities of the market (already mentioned by me in my earlier post) and WN's standing in SAN. Of course if the carrier is going to stay with only such a small presence at Dulles, is it really worth it?

And of course the bottom line is, with all the monkeying around that WN has done with IAD-SAN this year and early next, it seems like they are probably not getting much of any kind of traffic on the flights anyway... And the whole seasonal-shmeasonal thing (re WN in SAN) is just way beyond me...

bb
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:16 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 12):
Year-over-year DEN and DAL are each +1, however MKE-MSY which returned mid-March last year isn't back on this schedule. It's done for the 2015 season now but is still on the route map, so perhaps it's still coming back in April

This seems like a reasonable assumption since it's still on the route map as a non-stop option. The route has been pretty marginal in terms of loads and revenue, but does well in the Spring when demand into MSY peaks. MSY also loses a HOU flight going from 10 to 9 daily, but this is not a surprise given the new service to AUS, SAT, SAN, and OAK in the last year or so. Also, lots of belt tightening with the oil industry, so business traffic between the oil service industry here, and the big oil hq's in HOU has likely dropped. I'm sure that is why AUS also saw a loss of one daily flight. HOU is down 1.8% in total traffic through June of this year. http://system.gocampaign.com/netisd_...ry/620/74/9227/541472-0615Fin3.pdf

Overall, with additional daily flights to BWI and TPA the schedule is basically status quo at MSY.
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:17 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
SAN was crazy from Day 1 and if that comes back I'll be shocked. No idea why they thought that would be a good route.

It's because of the Navy. SAN-IAD connects the Navy based in SD with the Government in DC. Makes total sense.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
rtalk25
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:29 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 19):
I don't know why WN even bothered to add this seasonal route back with that kind of competition.

I think WN's CLE-MCO is Saturday only, atleast on the first week of April.

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
LOL. They are lost in IAD. They pulled ATL-DCA capacity to help this succeed? Good luck...

I was thinking a week ago, that Frontier should increase IAD-ATL to 2x daily since it's doing well on the route, instead of it running 1x IAD-MCO and 1x IAD-ATL with the remnants of it's IAD operation. I don't know how Frontier will compete on IAD-Florida with just one MCO flight and fares are pretty fare matched across DCA and IAD, from JetBlue and AA.

ATL is a different story with fewer competitors (i.e. no B6) and non-existant fare matching from DL. However, Southwest has now added IAD-ATL back (from AirTran), and at 2x daily, and Southwest is selling $69 fares out in April. 2x daily from Southwest will make Delta lower it's fares as well.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
They are just chasing F9 I think.

 checkmark 

Southwest must be figuring that Frontier's success is siphoning off some of it's customers. Maybe Southwest wants to pressure Frontier to leave IAD first with it's latest move.

[Edited 2015-08-11 12:53:57]
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:30 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 28):
It's because of the Navy. SAN-IAD connects the Navy based in SD with the Government in DC. Makes total sense.

I get that, but it didn't make enough sense. WN is not the carrier who is going to get loyalty out of IAD. Yes, maybe out of SAN, but they are very weak in transcons.
 
usflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:02 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 30):
I get that, but it didn't make enough sense. WN is not the carrier who is going to get loyalty out of IAD. Yes, maybe out of SAN, but they are very weak in transcons.

WN is the #1 carrier between SAN and the DC Metro area, according to DOT statistics.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
joeljack
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:30 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 31):

Quoting enilria (Reply 30):
I get that, but it didn't make enough sense. WN is not the carrier who is going to get loyalty out of IAD. Yes, maybe out of SAN, but they are very weak in transcons.

WN is the #1 carrier between SAN and the DC Metro area, according to DOT statistics.

UA is 3x daily on SAN-IAD. Surprised the heck out of me! That tells me WN is having a tough time competing in this particular market vs UA.
 
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modernArt
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:36 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 20):
I think WN is very interested in DCA-SAN but of course they can't get it (until there's another Congressional hearing)

Maybe. But I think the next out-of-perimeter route SWA will seek to fly n/s is SAT-DCA.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:46 pm

Quoting modernart (Reply 33):
But I think the next out-of-perimeter route SWA will seek to fly n/s is SAT-DCA.

They may apply for DCA-SAT but I can almost guarantee that a nonstop to SAN will be on the top of their list. I have no idea if there will be competition for the route but I'd bet a roll of quarters that WN will be at the front of the line!

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 31):
WN is the #1 carrier between SAN and the DC Metro area, according to DOT statistics.

This doesn't surprise me a bit. WN has made a point of providing the most complete coverage possible between SAN and the 3 WAS-area airports and I believe one reason for that is to be sitting pretty for the next Congressional hearing on Beyond Perimeter routes from Reagan. No other carrier will be able to point to their history of service in the DC-SAN market and ask why they shouldn't deserve to fly DCA-SAN nonstop.

bb
 
MSPNWA
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:23 am

Nice to see an add to WN at ATL. Interesting that they're moving IAD-MDW to ATL for more of a connecting flow. Makes sense though to follow the traffic. They previously had nothing from IAD to the south. Now they do. DEN can capture much of MDW's western connecting flows.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
UA shouldn't be in it and neither should WN.

So UA with a former hub in CLE and WN with its large incumbent status at MCO shouldn't be there, but DL without anything at either end should?
 
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RWA380
Posts: 5698
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:34 am

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 22):
Especially when a few years ago, WN put together a huge presentation to the federal government that OKC-DCA is a top priority in receiving nonstop service. They gathered signatures from major political figures in both states, as well as signatures and letters of recommendations from many large businesses in Oklahoma speaking to the benefit of that service.

Sounds like another way businesses use us (the public) as pawns for their corporate games.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
Fortunately Enilria is kind enough to pull YOY comparisons for airlines like Southwest which roll out (mostly) unchanging schedules in chunks.

Amen & Hallelujah
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
gr8slvrflt
Posts: 1482
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 10:53 pm

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:56 am

Yet another extension without the long-predicted gutting of ATL ~
I work for Southwest, but the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Southwest.
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:56 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 35):
Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
UA shouldn't be in it and neither should WN.

So UA with a former hub in CLE and WN with its large incumbent status at MCO shouldn't be there, but DL without anything at either end should?

I only see WN's CLE-MCO as Saturday only. Correct me if I'm wrong. As such, I don't know why it's a big deal.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 35):
Interesting that they're moving IAD-MDW to ATL for more of a connecting flow. Makes sense though to follow the traffic. They previously had nothing from IAD to the south.

For a market like PHL, where Southwest keeps a cap of only about 30 departures and doesn't fly n/s to HOU or AUS, ATL service for southbound connectivity is significant. But for IAD which is a small submarket of WAS, where WN also has plenty of service from DCA and BWI, to Texas and Florida, it's likely less important.

More people would do PHL-ATL-RDU than IAD-ATL-RDU, where No. VA to Raleigh is driveable within 5 hours. Also, there is so much nonstop low fares to Florida, from DCA and BWI.

I thought IAD-MDW was extraneous once WN started flying DCA-MDW at 9x daily. There was too many seats, and Southwest was selling heavy backtrack connections like DCA/IAD-MDW-BOS/MHT/PVD.

It will be interesting what WN's approach is for IAD-ATL. I think it will sell more discounted O&D fares than it was doing on DCA-ATL, putting pressure on F9.
 
ATAIndy
Posts: 653
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:05 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:20 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
This is a good example. IND-BWI is going +1 from 2 to 3, but last year it was 4x so year-over-year it's -1. The other four are ramping back up to the same level as 2015.

Thanks for putting it in perspective, they certainly duped me.
Boiler up!
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:59 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 38):
For a market like PHL, where Southwest keeps a cap of only about 30 departures and doesn't fly n/s to HOU or AUS, ATL service for southbound connectivity is significant. But for IAD which is a small submarket of WAS, where WN also has plenty of service from DCA and BWI, to Texas and Florida, it's likely less important.

That's dependent on treating DCA/IAD as one market. I believe that's largely not the case. Hence IAD remaining even after the DCA expansion, and the service is now shifting to a better connecting airport for the demand.
 
avi8
Posts: 1160
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:21 pm

Wow, 16 more flights to TPA. That's impressive
avi8
 
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knope2001
Posts: 3020
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:29 pm

Quoting ATAIndy (Reply 39):
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):This is a good example. IND-BWI is going +1 from 2 to 3, but last year it was 4x so year-over-year it's -1. The other four are ramping back up to the same level as 2015.
Thanks for putting it in perspective, they certainly duped me.

Yeah, it's one of those things where they are telling us "A" but it's really easy to misinterpret it to be "B".

Quoting avi8 (Reply 41):
Wow, 16 more flights to TPA. That's impressive

True, but the majority of these are seasonal restorations of flights which were cut (seasonally) sometime in 2015.

Definitely looking forward to a YOY comparison, assuming Enilria creates one for us as has been done before.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6922
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:00 pm

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 22):
a few years ago, WN put together a huge presentation to the federal government that OKC-DCA is a top priority in receiving nonstop service. They gathered signatures from major political figures in both states, as well as signatures and letters of recommendations from many large businesses in Oklahoma speaking to the benefit of that service.

Then when they get a slot available, they park it to OMA. Figures.

WN, at that time, was trying to pick up a slot exemption specifically restricted to small- or non-hub airports, and OKC is considered to be a small-hub airport under the definition of the law. IIRC that exemption had been used by DL Connection for DCA-JAN and US proposed to continue that service. That doesn't mean that OKC was the best choice for non-stop service -- it just means it was the best market which satisfied the requirements of the exemption -- and the fact that it was unserved would have been the justification for taking away the exemption used for non-stop service to JAN.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 34):
Quoting modernart (Reply 33):
But I think the next out-of-perimeter route SWA will seek to fly n/s is SAT-DCA.

They may apply for DCA-SAT but I can almost guarantee that a nonstop to SAN will be on the top of their list. I have no idea if there will be competition for the route but I'd bet a roll of quarters that WN will be at the front of the line!

Yeah, I'm inclined to think that WN would have applied for DCA-SAN instead of DCA-AUS back in that round except for the fact that US had proposed DCA-SAN with its slot (since flipped over to DCA-LAX).

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
MCO picks up 2 additional DCA flights.

The 3 adds tell me that DCA is disappointing. OMA does nothing for their network, it's an oddball. MCO is where you put slots when you run out of ideas.

I'm not sure it says anything more than DCA-ATL is doing poorly (and probably taking a lot of connections to/from MCO). Outside of Florida, there aren't any really obvious within-perimeter markets in their network to add to DCA.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 4):
RSW gets 17 additional flights with this schedule.

RSW is crazy seasonal and will likely lose all of those by summer. I wonder how they staff it. TDY?

Quoting enilria (Reply 24):
Quoting knope2001 (Reply 23):
HOU-AUS 5 to 4

Conversely, didn't they used to fly this a lot more?

Yep, but the speed limit in Texas also used to be 55 mph. Now that the speed limit is 75 (and apparently you can go 94 without getting a ticket if you're a state representative) Houston-Austin is a two-and-a-half hour drive.
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:04 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 40):
That's dependent on treating DCA/IAD as one market. I believe that's largely not the case. Hence IAD remaining even after the DCA expansion, and the service is now shifting to a better connecting airport for the demand.

I think the main driver keeping WN at IAD is the IAD-DEN flights that can't be offered as DCA-DEN, and potential other west flights.

As far as ATL additions, DCA-ATL loses two flights but IAD-ATL gains two flights, so it's no additions or losses. However, it might benefit some ATL connecting flows, e.g. DCA-ATL-CUN, and IAD-ATL-CUN both being salable itineries together helps ATL-CUN, where MDW-CUN might already have enough connecting flow from other WN cities.

IAD-ATL does make connecting flows to RSW, TPA and JAX, MSY and some Texas cities have less total trip times (than through MDW). Since there are so many low fare flights to the main Florida destinations, that are nonstop from DCA, I'd be surprised if WN started discounting IAD-ATL-FLL to be less in fare than a nonstop from DCA.

However the loss of IAD-MDW means CLE, BNA and CLT connections become unavailable, and DTW and MSP become more back track.

I guess we will have to see how WN prices DCA-ATL against IAD-ATL when they are closer (and not as advance purchase as now), if connections are priced lower than comparable DCA nonstops, and if lower last minute fares are present on just IAD-ATL if it's trying to fare match F9.

Lately WN has been offering lower fares on ATL bound flights over ATL connecting itineries. e.g. CAK-ATL and ATL-PHL sold separately are now cheaper than CAK-ATL-PHL. It's cheaper buying two separate tickets and self-connecting. WN has been not trying to encourage connecting on the latter but encourage lower fares to ATL (likely to be competitive with the ULCCs).

[Edited 2015-08-12 14:12:37]
 
usairways85
Posts: 4146
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: Next SWA Schedule Extension 11 Aug

Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:24 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 16):
Thanks. Can you give a quick summary for the frequencies of each of the carriers on the 3 routes so we can see how WN stacks up to the 800 lb gorilla ?

I am not sure how accurate the AA schedule is this far out but this is how it stands now. Also F9's schedule only goes out to January so these are just forecasted based on their Dec. schedule.


PHL-MCO
Sat 4/2/16
AA: 8 flts (5x 321, 2x 320, 1x 752)
F9: 3 flts (3x 321)
WN: 4 flts (4x 73G)

PHL-TPA
4/2
AA: 4 flts (1x 321, 2x 320, 1x 319)
F9: 1 flt (1x 319)
WN: 3 flts (3x 73G)


PHL-FLL
4/2
AA: 4 flts (1x 321, 2x 320, 1x 320)
WN: 1 flt (1x 73G)
B6: 2 flts (2x 320)

PHL-MIA
4/2
AA: 7 flts (1x 763, 2x 321, 3x 738, 1x 320)
F9: 1 flt (1x 320)

[Edited 2015-08-12 14:29:29]

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