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lightsaber
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Status ARJ-21

Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:10 am

What is the latest news on this RJ? Are any in commercial service? Last I heard in March there was a six month 'route proving' reported on flight global. This was shortly before certification.

It is unprecedented to have a newly certified aircraft have so little press. What are the deliveries (quantity).

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...arj21-route-proving-trials-410273/

With all due respect, this feels like a masked additional delay to add to the 7 years...

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IMissPiedmont
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:04 am

I believe we have a situation much like the Tu-144 in the Soviet Union, an aircraft that will fly one route for a few months and then disappear. The Chinese aerospace industry is not yet up to producing a competitive aircraft. Give them 5 years though and Boeing and Airbus will have some competion on the sideline.
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lightsaber
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:15 am

I just found this:
Comac yet to firm ARJ21 delivery date for Chengdu Airlines
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-date-for-chengdu-airlines-407662/

WHAT?!?

Also
It is also reviewing Comac’s operational support system and will have to grant it a production licence.

I've never heard of a production license following certification by 7 months?!?

It never occurred to me that the two wouldn't be done in parallel.

Let's not forget the program stared in 2003:
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...on/china-certifies-comac-arj21-700




This is a program where original EIS was scheduled for 1H2007!?!   
The ARJ-21 is now 8 years late!
The problem is particularly evident in propulsion. The aircraft was launched with what was then a quite new engine, the General Electric CF34-10, used by the similarly sized Embraer E Jet, which had entered development three years earlier. But by 2008 Mitsubishi Aircraft had chosen the more fuel-efficient Pratt & Whitney PW1217G geared turbofan for its MRJ, also close to the ARJ21 in size. A year ago Embraer decided to drop the CF34-10 and switch to the Pratt & Whitney engine for an extensively revamped E Jet design.
From http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...ue-enter-service-april-may-2015>

To put it into perspective, the E2-175 is planned for 1H2018. That leaves at most 3 more years of delays before the next generation aircraft enter service.

Quoting IMissPiedmont (Reply 1):

I believe we have a situation much like the Tu-144 in the Soviet Union, an aircraft that will fly one route for a few months and then disappear.

That could indeed be the case. But I haven't even heard of any commercial operations. Just more route planning. Finding out *none* have even been delivered to an airline is shocking to me.

Quoting IMissPiedmont (Reply 1):
The Chinese aerospace industry is not yet up to producing a competitive aircraft. Give them 5 years though and Boeing and Airbus will have some competion on the sideline.

5 years is a blink of the eye in aerospace. What you are proposing is that they do very well with the C919. I am personally more optimistic with the MC-21 which has hired more of the right outsourcing companies.


Heck, the C919 might not deliver until 5 years from now!   
The sources had also said the maiden flight had been postponed to the first half of 2016, with deliveries scheduled for 2018 slipping to as late as 2020.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...na-comac-jet-idUSL3N0ZP21320150709

Ok, I'm being serious: If the politically motivated Chinese aerospace industry doesn't have the ARJ-21 flying commercial duty now, the only way to ensure the C919 will be a success is to publicly expose why it didn't work so that the C919 doesn't repeat the same mistakes. Yes, I realize this runs counter to Chinese culture of 'saving face,' but the reality is that unless the problems are exposed, the same bureaucrats that hid their mistakes until *late* in the ARJ-21 flight test program will hide other mistakes with the C919. Aerospace engineering works best by 'exposing problems to the light.'

I have more confidence in the MRJ as Mitsubishi is broadcasting the issues. I have much more confidence when issues are identified early and corrected.
http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-sh...ishi-evaluates-further-mrj-stretch

Part of what is making me suspicious is the Wikipedia page hasn't changed "orders and options" to "orders and deliveries."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_ARJ21

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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 7:08 am

i was lucky enaugh to get onto one of their test frames when they flew all over the world for flight testing. let me put it this way: i will be VERY afraid flying on this one once it is delivered....

never the less i am well aware of it being a test frame and the later ones "off the rack" will not show a test frame type manufacturing culture... hopefully.

and there is a great difference in a dc-9-82 and this one (i can compare them best), it's in the details...

never the less it is such a highlight for aviation enthusiasts!!!!!!
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KarelXWB
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 7:29 am

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 3):
i will be VERY afraid flying on this one once it is delivered

You've made me curious: why would you be afraid, what's wrong with the aircraft?

Quoting IMissPiedmont (Reply 1):
Give them 5 years though and Boeing and Airbus will have some competion on the sideline.

Make that 20 years.

[Edited 2015-08-07 00:30:42]
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lightsaber
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:20 am

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 3):
was lucky enaugh to get onto one of their test frames when they flew all over the world for flight testing. let me put it this way: i will be VERY afraid flying on this one once it is delivered....

That is curious as the flight test engineers I know usually come out impressed with the airframes. What made you afraid?

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Make that 20 years.

At this point I do not see the mind set changes that matter to meet any timeframe...

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Aesma
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:07 pm

I agree with you lightsaber, the correct way would be to finish the ARJ-21. Instead Comac is saying they won't even try to certify the C919 in the West !
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:31 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 6):
Instead Comac is saying they won't even try to certify the C919 in the West !

This is a big mistake. That communicates 'we make a poor mans plane that we can only force thru the throats of our own CAAC airlines but noone else.' Even if it won't actually sell well it would still be a huge PR boost to gain some western orders here and there. Just like Mexico's Interjet being happy with their SSJ's it gets much more street credibility then if just Aeroflot and Gazprom were flying it.
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 3):
i was lucky enaugh to get onto one of their test frames when they flew all over the world for flight testing. let me put it this way: i will be VERY afraid flying on this one once it is delivered....

Buddy, you can't just throw something like that out and not explain it properly. That's ridiculous. Vague references to how utterly frightful it is are of no value. Details please.
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lightsaber
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:42 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 6):

Not gain western cert?!? That ensures a poor reputation. When Russia and the FAA agreed to share recognition, both sides toughened their criteria to be roughly comparable. The FAA improved anti-icing, but NOT to the over the top Russian requirements. Russia improved fatigue analysis and maintenance plan certification. Most stayed as is as while they had different approaches and standards, they both ensured safe flight.

E.G., the landing gear testing by Russia to me seems stricter, the FAA has other areas stricter. Taking the strictest of both would ensure we flew in lead pigs.  

The same happens with the JAA and other regulatory agencies.

What is China trying to pull? The engines are *not* certified by Chinese standards. By aligning systems it allows 'borrowing' from other cert agencies.

I am getting confused as to Chiba's end game with the C919.

On topic, I've stopped believing ARJ-21 entry into service dates.

8 years late and no reliability statistics have been released...

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r2rho
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:47 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 2):
I've never heard of a production license following certification by 7 months?!?
It never occurred to me that the two wouldn't be done in parallel.

Indeed. I guess we are so accustomed to to seeing them done in parallel that we cannot imagine otherwise. This is an indication that the ARJ program is still not fixed...

Quoting Aesma (Reply 6):
Instead Comac is saying they won't even try to certify the C919 in the West !


The problem is that the ARJ-21 was to be the enabler for Western C919 certification, as the FAA was conducting a shadow certification of that airplane and monitoring the CAAC throughout the process. If only for that reason, certifying the ARJ-21 was strategically crucial even if commercially unsuccesful. Giving up Western certif on the C919 is implicitly acknowledging that this shadow certifcation has failed.
And I agree with you that even if the a/c were never to sell in the West, an FAA / EASA "stamp" on it would give it - and the Chinese aviation industry - valuable credibility for other markets.
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:29 pm

At one time I believe the ARJ-21 had orders from airlines in LAos. I believe they were canceled. Does the ARJ-21 have export orders, and to which airlines? If they pass Chinese certification would they be allowed to fly in developing countries?If so would that not be a good option for countries in need for air transportation regionally?
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:35 am

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 11):

How good an option depends on competitiveness versus the MRJ and E-175 as well as E2-175, including used E-175.

The lack of Western certification implies they had trouble meeting FAA certification goals. That is unlikely to be a good thing. I personally do not see the business case for the ARJ-21. You can find old posts of mine noting it had a 5 year sales window. That window ended 3 years ago thanks to the plane being at least 8 years late to EIS.

Without a production certificate, this is idle discussion. We're so used to them being issued within 2 months of the flight certificate that the ARJ-21's lack of a production certificate is... unique.

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r2rho
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:15 pm

Seems there is now a target for 1st delivery: november to Chengdu Airlines. And second a/c before year end.
Though strangely, it will not enter service until Feb 2016...

The two first a/c for Chendgu will not be produced under the production certificate and will need individual certification...
Production certification is targeted for the end of 2016!    Assuming this is not a typo?

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...rd-november-arj21-delivery-416103/
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:19 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 13):
Seems there is now a target for 1st delivery: november to Chengdu Airlines. And second a/c before year end.
Though strangely, it will not enter service until Feb 2016...
Quoting r2rho (Reply 13):
The two first a/c for Chendgu will not be produced under the production certificate and will need individual certification...

WHAT?!? That is a very expensive way to deliver an aircraft. It also implies they will require a custom maintenance plan. The resale value... will be poor.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 13):
Production certification is targeted for the end of 2016!

  

I'm stunned. I hope that is end-2015. I repeat that we've become so used to aircraft and production certification being done in parallel that the concept that they would be this far apart is... weird. It implies COMAC is still working on being able to prove they have the processes in place to produce as they promise.

Individual certification is for prototypes, not delivered aircraft...

Thank you for the update.

To think the ARJ-21 first flew in 2008... No Western certification...

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r2rho
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:52 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
Production certification is targeted for the end of 2016!

I'm stunned. I hope that is end-2015.

I also hope that is a typo in the article. I haven't found other sources with the sames news. But even with all the problems around the ARJ I cannot imagine such a long time for a production certificate, which would mean one year of deliveries of one-off, expensively and individually certified frames...
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:04 am

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lightsaber
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:31 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 15):
But even with all the problems around the ARJ I cannot imagine such a long time for a production certificate, which would mean one year of deliveries of one-off, expensively and individually certified frames...

Agreed. I too think it is a typo. However... everything else on the program is way behind scheudle.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 16):
Comac abandons FAA certification for ARJ21:

Yep.

I know of three components on each engine that would never meet FAA (or the JAA's, or Russia's) certification standards. Now, they'll be safe, just not durable and due to the way the CF-34 is maintained... they are components that are meant to last the life of the overhaul due to how buried they are withing the engine. Normally they last the life of the overhaul. But:
1. New Chinese vendors.
2. Reduced cooling air. A quick and easy way to reduce fuel burn... at the expense of component life.

I'm not predicting disaster, more dispatch reliability. Also, really poor overhaul intervals as if the engine is > 80% of the way to the overhaul anyway, it is best to just overhaul the engine to get to some of these parts than to disassemble so much of the engine and put it back together without overhauling the parts. Just my   

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alberchico
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:01 am

http://www.airlineberg.com/tag/chinas-first-homegrown-airliner/

This link has some interesting pictures of the production line. Not very sophisticated is it ?
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:23 am

Perhaps Delta could buy a few for spare parts for its 717s..   
 
Wayfarer515
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:04 am

It seems that the ARJ21 will enter service until Feb, 2016.

http://atwonline.com/airframes/comac-arj21-enter-service-february-2016
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:40 am

I will say it again as I have been for years, China is not this wonder the media makes it out to be that is on the verge of overtaking the U.S. Economy and leaving it in the dust. The fact they cannot even build a regional jet and the disaster and incompetence shown recently when their stock market started falling proves this point. The main operator of the plane is an airline owned by the manufacturer itself, it is a complete joke and disaster.
 
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:50 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 21):
I will say it again as I have been for years, China is not this wonder the media makes it out to be that is on the verge of overtaking the U.S. Economy and leaving it in the dust. The fact they cannot even build a regional jet and the disaster and incompetence shown recently when their stock market started falling proves this point. The main operator of the plane is an airline owned by the manufacturer itself, it is a complete joke and disaster.

If stock markets failure were a measure of incompetence, then the USA or Western Europe would have lost their top spots a long time ago, and on several occasions.Does anybody remember Fannie May or Freddie Mac? How about the .COM bubble? Give me a break.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Status ARJ-21

Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:42 am

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 20):

Huh... 4 or 5 months off. I'm speculating there could be another slip. This program has never been one to come clean.


Now it makes me wonder what the fuel burn is like. After schedule, performance misses are the next hidden. Then durability...

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RE: Status ARJ-21

Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:06 pm

I wonder why they didn't buy out the Tu-334 program from Tupolev. They are both very similar aircraft with practically the same market segment in mind. Guess it would have been a better learning experience and with a much lower risk. Even in Russia many wonder why the program was discontinued, as they are now left without an indigenous airframe with indigenous engines, making them vulnerable to sanctions from the West in case of the SSJ100's engines.

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