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chiad
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:09 am

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 48):
Exclude the initial order rush for the NEO in comparisons is very unfair and nonsense.

Ofcourse! But this clearly shows that the NEO program seems to be the preferred product.
And there has been claims that the MAX has outsold the NEO since the launch of the MAX.

Now I wonder how the MAX8 compares to the A320NEO since the launch of the MAX program.
That should be quite balanced I would think.

Anyways .. I assume the most important thing now for these amazingly successfull programs is the ramp-up towards 60 units per month production.
 
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speedbored
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:51 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 46):
The challenge will be engines.

That will certainly be a challenge. I think Airbus are a little more fortunate in that they have two suppliers so they have a little extra leverage to push them to deliver.

I can't help wondering whether they just might be looking into the possibility of continuing with a small amount of ceo production, for a while, to help alleviate engine availability issues.

But I also think another challenge will be seats. The manufacturers are still struggling with current demand and I'm aware of at least 2 airlines that are actively looking into the possibility of taking delivery of at least some of their new frames fitted with old (refurbished) seats as an interim contingency measure if their orders get significantly delayed.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 46):
Note: Note yet announced, but Airbus is determining if the supply chain can do it:

I'm hearing that they are also quietly studying even higher rates than the currently announced study for rate 63.

I wonder which manufacturer will hit 1000 a year first  
 
astuteman
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:09 am

Quoting chiad (Reply 50):
Now I wonder how the MAX8 compares to the A320NEO since the launch of the MAX program.
That should be quite balanced I would think.

Including this announcement, 52% A320NEO, 48% 737-8 MAX (2 684 NEO vs 2 488 MAX since the launch of the MAX).

As you can see, before this announcement it was 2434 vs 2488 (assuming all 250 are 320's), or a gnats nadger's advantage to the 737-8 MAX.

I would not be surprised to see the A320NEO vs 737-8MAX pendulum to swing back to parity over time.

250 orders in one go definintely counts as a "blip"  

Rgds
 
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EPA001
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:58 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 52):
250 orders in one go definintely counts as a "blip"

250 orders Indigo definitely counts as a "blip".   
 
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lightsaber
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:19 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 47):

Airbus has a surplus of CEO sales, so it is possible. I think what we'll see is a slower reduction in CEO engines. Pratt production will be limited by machine tools for NEO engines. For example friction welding. CFM is switching materials and process, so tooling and the learning curve for the LEAP. So I think some must be on CEO engines.

But one of my above links implies CFM-56 demand is not strong enough to grow on that engine. The V2500 has slightly better fuel burn and better economics at high thrust (A321). So I am thinking it only has a two year greater window for deliveries (at most, it could be less).

Quoting speedbored (Reply 51):

I've heard probes beyond 63, but nothing serious yet. To go to 63 per month for Airbus is looking highly likely. I doubt a thousand per year, but I could see 75 per month.

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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 15):
Seeing as this is an order for a stupid number of A320neos from an airline in a country where the average wage is low, I'm expecting a statement explaining that this is a bogus order that Airbus have logged just to put the numbers up...

I'm waiting for the one that says it is great news for Boeing because it blocks Airbus production slots and makes A320s unavailable when other customers need them!
 
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PW100
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:43 pm

Quoting EC99 (Reply 31):
An order representing 2/3 of your total fleet is far different from one representing 5/2.
Quoting billreid (Reply 40):
Interesting, but not relevent to the IndiGo contract

No argument from me, don't disagree. But that was not the point of course.

Never claimed any relevancy . . . just pointing out that the initial argument was quite a joke to start with:



Quoting racercoup (Reply 20):
These orders have no real meaning because we don't know the terms.

There you have it. We don't know the terms of many other orders, including the one that I referenced. The terms argument did not come up in any of those other orders. It seems somewhat unbalanced to bring that very argument tot the table here. Feel free to disagree, but I'd prefer constancy in arguments.

Rgds,
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astuteman
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:01 pm

Quoting racercoup (Reply 44):
But delivery's hide nothing.............

If you think this year's deliveries tell you anything better about what's going to happen in the future than the order backlogs do, then I suspect you're in for a bit of a disappointment.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 56):
I'd prefer constancy in arguments

Wrong place to come for that, my friend. sadly

Rgds
 
SVJ77W
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:18 pm

I have flown Indigo only twice but I can tell they are really really good. A very modern cool atmosphere onboard and the only profitable airline in India. They do replace their planes every 6 years so it makes a lot of sense. I would see them with about 200 or 250 orders once all the orders are completed but who knows by then they would probably have more new orders on the books.

I read somewhere that QR was in talks to partner with Indigo and Indigo boss was considering it while it was a big shot in the arm for SpiceJet that really needed QRs partnership.

I have one question though thats been elusive, I read somewhere Indigo was planning to order some A321s. I dont seem to find anything on it now. I found a link which is below but this is dated 2013.

http://wap.business-standard.com/art...-airbus-planes-113092500760_1.html

Anyone has any info on Indigo's orders for A321s?

[Edited 2015-08-18 15:23:45]
 
chiad
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:02 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 52):
Including this announcement, 52% A320NEO, 48% 737-8 MAX (2 684 NEO vs 2 488 MAX since the launch of the MAX).

As you can see, before this announcement it was 2434 vs 2488 (assuming all 250 are 320's), or a gnats nadger's advantage to the 737-8 MAX.

Thanks for the numbers!

Quoting astuteman (Reply 52):
250 orders in one go definintely counts as a "blip"

LOL
  
 
olle
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:18 pm

Quoting chiad (Reply 59):
ncluding this announcement, 52% A320NEO, 48% 737-8 MAX (2 684 NEO vs 2 488 MAX since the launch of the MAX).

As you can see, before this announcement it was 2434 vs 2488 (assuming all 250 are 320's), or a gnats nadger's advantage to the 737-8 MAX.

While the big difference is for A321 vs B739 how does this balance value of the backlog?

Bigger plane more $$
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:54 am

Indigo have taken delivery 115 aircrafts till date and returned 16 to lessors. The delivery of 180 a/cs ordered has commenced in last Q of 2014. The first bunch of 100CEOs will be progressively replaced by the NEOs and the current order of 250 replace the initial deliveries of NEO.
With longer TBO for the NEOs, 6E are likely to operate these AF for 8yrs compared to the 6yrs for the Classics. Additionally, NEOs will have 9 extra seats creating a growth of 5% in ASK, the sum of extra seats and longer lease will allow 6E to maintain higher capacity whilst keeping a moderate fleet size.

Quoting EC99 (Reply 31):
This is an apples to oranges comparison. 150 77X is about 2/3 of EK's current fleet (219 total airplanes). IndiGo has 97 airplanes. 250 A320neos is a 2.5 times their current fleet.

An order representing 2/3 of your total fleet is far different from one representing 5/2.

You missed the 50xA380 and 111xB737 ordered by Dubai during this same airshow. The cumulative list price for all of these orders amounted to $110.4B. The GDP of Dubai in the year 2014 was $107B. As per F&E, the organisers of the Dubai airshow, Aviation accounts for 37% of Dubai's economy. Going by all of these figures I believe there are far greater risks in the regions outside of India rather than India when it comes to Aviation. Since 2001, the ME3 have ordered and taken delivery of phenomenal numbers of aircrafts on the back of $100/bl petro-dollar economy. It will be very challenging for EK to sell its Sharia bonds to Saudi investors in a $40-$50/bl economy. Not to mention the benign capital markets with near 0% Int rates and massive QE. Its all unravelling rapidly if one is following the Chinese economy, a good example of supply side growth. The 6E order confirmation can be viewed in the background of these events, Airbus have placed their faith in the Indian economy/aviation seeing the dust storms in the horizon by closing this deal.

With more fuel efficient and longer range A320NEOs, 6E will erode much of the feed traffic of the ME3 from India by creating viable city pairs by-passing the hubs of the ME3.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
chiad
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:37 am

Quoting EC99 (Reply 31):
IndiGo has 97 airplanes. 250 A320neos is a 2.5 times their current fleet.

Actually IndiGo has 430 NEO's ordered.
So it would be close to 4.5 times their current fleet.
 
Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 61):
You missed the 50xA380 and 111xB737 ordered by Dubai during this same airshow.

And I expect another 200 A380NEO's and 50+ A350XWB/B787-10 later this year, giving EK an orderbook in excess of 520 planes while their current fleet is some 220 frames.

Common for both of these company is extreme growth and planes on order that will be replaced by other planes currently already ordered.
Their strategy seems to be working and IMHO both will still be highly successfull in 10 years.
Time will tell.
 
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scbriml
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:43 am

Leeham's take on the Indigo order:

http://leehamnews.com/2015/08/21/bjorns-corner-saleleasebacks/

I'm sure this won't satisfy the naysayers, but there you go.
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tommy1808
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:58 am

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 61):
With more fuel efficient and longer range A320NEOs, 6E will erode much of the feed traffic of the ME3 from India by creating viable city pairs by-passing the hubs of the ME3.

they'd probably very happy that the A320neo just doesn't have enough range to Europe.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:45 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 63):
Leeham's take on the Indigo order:

Rakesh Gangwal apart from being the ex-President of US Airways is the founder of Worldspan, a $10b co. More than half of all airline tickets sold globally is processed by his firm. Indigo's ex-CFO who is now solely responsible for its leasing function is Riaz PeerMohammed. He was instrumental in securing EK's first multi-billion dollar order in 2001, 6 weeks after 9/11, that order was worth $15.4b, he was the EK treasurer then. So I think desk top analyst should research on the management background of an airline, Airbus will never agree to accept a 100 aircraft order from a rookie airline unless they know for sure there is a Gangwal or Neeleman behind the venture. Another snippet. Interglobe the Indian majority shareholders are sole agents for Amadeus within India, hence they process all the other tiks sales that worldspan don't within India. I call that a team of untouchables.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 64):
they'd probably very happy that the A320neo just doesn't have enough range to Europe.

GOI is looking at going for an Open Skies policy with EU and ANZ. This will affect the connecting traffic of ME3 if introduced. A more agreesive 6E will further eat into the breakeven loads to the ME3 Hub.

Quoting chiad (Reply 62):
Their strategy seems to be working and IMHO both will still be highly successfull in 10 years.
Time will tell.

Time has already come in the case of Dxb, In the year 2007 they were rescued by AUH the owners of EY, its alleged AUH now own 30% of EK. Additionally EY has halted all expansion plans, the next dubai airshow will be proof. Personally I don't wish any major shake-up, as ultimately the ripples are felt by all (too many planes and crew in the market is
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:22 am

Post:85 contd; (too many planes and crew in the market is bad for jobs/wages) but surely there is some realignments due after this long period of global economic boom.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
chiad
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:32 am

Airbus still have some 300 MoU's, incl. 100 from Wizz Air, for the A320NEO program.
These MoU's, with a number of rumoured narrowbody campaigns, make it possible that the NEO backlog could pass 4500 firm orders before EIS.
 
Vimanav
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:41 am

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 65):
Another snippet. Interglobe the Indian majority shareholders are sole agents for Amadeus within India, hence they process all the other tiks sales that worldspan don't within India.

Hi Tayaramcanici

Great observations in your above post, i could not agree more. However one small correction:

Interglobe are the sole representatives of Travelport and not Amadeus. Amadeus is with the Bird Group.

brgds//Vimanav
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racercoup
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:12 pm

Quoting india1 (Reply 49):
Unnecessary, uniformed comment, dear Sir! Indigo have been consistently profitable and have an excellent track record of service & safety.

"Accidents and incidents[edit]
On 11 January 2011, Flight 333, piloted by Captain Parminder Kaur Gulati, landed nose-first at Goa International Airport, damaging the landing gear and putting the aircraft at risk of disintegration. Prior to the landing, the captain had caused the aircraft to descend too steeply, against the recommendations of aircraft manufacturer Airbus.[40] It was later discovered that the captain used forged papers to obtain an air transport pilot license (ATPL), after failing the test as many as seven times. She had also flown the return flight back to New Delhi when the aircraft's systems showed problems with the landing gear.[41]"

Well maybe not excellent.........
 
BestWestern
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:26 pm

Quoting Vimanav (Reply 68):

And the chairman of Indigo used to be the CEO of worldspan.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
Vimanav
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:40 pm

Quoting racercoup (Reply 69):
Well maybe not excellent.........

Yet a lot better than some first world airlines whose pilots lock the other out of cockpits before intentional CFIT !!

I'd rather have a cheat fly me down safely than a nutcase !!!
Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
 
BestWestern
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:58 pm

Quoting Vimanav (Reply 71):

Ignore the fanboy troll
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:26 am

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 61):

I 100% agree the ME3 are vulnerable to hub bypass. 6E has quite a market ahead.

I however wonder if 6E will keep aircraft 8 instead of 6 years. I suspect that is their 'relief valve.'. If demand justifies a third more aircraft, they will keep for 8. If not, they will still grow keeping airframes for 6. I expect we'll something in between.

This makes me wonder why FR has an odd 738 configuration? Sale leaseback is an ideal strategy for growth airlines willing to place large orders.

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TheRedBaron
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:16 am

There are some ripples associated with this huge order and basically the ENORMOUS expansion in India/China/and the far east countries, with orders in excess of 1500 aircraft, I guess the lack of Air Mech, Crews, Pilots, will make a nightmare or it will make flying VERY UNSAFE. I am really worried about getting thousands of pilots as fast as hot cakes, with minimal training, flight hours or god forbid forget papers and such....

I guess the consequences of this rapid expansion is still in the future but ME3 is feeling the pressure of finding human resources to keep the operation smoothly.... time will tell.


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tommy1808
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:12 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 74):
I am really worried about getting thousands of pilots as fast as hot cakes, with minimal training, flight hours or god forbid forget papers and such....

isn't China among the countries with the strictest training requirements for pilots world wide?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
billreid
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:32 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 42):
Every firm order booked by Airbus is real. The customer may not take delivery of them, but they've put money down and Airbus will deliver the plane unless deferred or cancelled, at which point they reassign the slots.

I think we are talking accounting principles and terminology. Sure the order is real, but is the real intent to take all those planes or to sell some slots later. None of us are to good at mind reading are we?

Quoting PW100 (Reply 56):
No argument from me, don't disagree. But that was not the point of course.

Never claimed any relevancy . . . just pointing out that the initial argument was quite a joke to start with:

So true. I also can't believe this thread is still up.
Slow news day.
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tommy1808
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:40 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 76):
or to sell some slots later.

Given how supply limited the NEO is, I would bet they can't sell slots for profit. That be like Airbus saying "Oh, please... have some of our profit!".

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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scbriml
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:25 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 76):
Sure the order is real, but is the real intent to take all those planes or to sell some slots later.

Certainly not the latter.   

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 77):
Given how supply limited the NEO is, I would bet they can't sell slots for profit. That be like Airbus saying "Oh, please... have some of our profit!".

Both OEMs stopped this a good time ago via contract clauses. Can't be done without the OEM's approval. As you say, it would be giving cash away.
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Andy33
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:45 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 73):
This makes me wonder why FR has an odd 738 configuration? Sale leaseback is an ideal strategy for growth airlines willing to place large orders.

The odd configuration FR has is to have factory-fitted integral airstairs at the front door.
This means they don't have to wait for ground handling to bring up front stairs or take them away again, or pay for it. They will use rear stairs from ground handling though. They fight tooth and nail to avoid using airbridge gates.
Doing things their way means they can consistently turn a 189 seat 738 in 25 minutes, with assigned seat numbers these days too. I imagine that makes up for worse sale/leaseback rates, a strategy they do use for a proportion of their fleet.
 
diverted
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:54 pm

I'd imagine we see something similar to FR here?

Based on the volume, I'd imagine they got a good deal (note: I'm not saying Airbus gave them away) and if they plan on turning over the fleet quickly, it may make more sense this way. Based on the big backlog, it may make a lot of sense to sell relatively young NEO's to airlines who haven't yet ordered. Alternatively a few 6 year old frames may make a lot of sense for some smaller carriers who wouldn't have gotten the same pricing on a 5-10 frame order of new frames. If there aren't many in the market, it may help inflate their residual value.

Not to mention Indigo will have a steady supply that they can offer for sale to airlines that are seeking the capacity.(see AC rouge hunting for 767s and A321s currently)
 
tommy1808
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:11 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 78):
Both OEMs stopped this a good time ago via contract clauses. Can't be done without the OEM's approval. As you say, it would be giving cash away.

I didn´t *know*, but i was sure enough to bet. Thanks for clearing that up.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
diverted
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:13 pm

Quoting andy33 (Reply 79):
I imagine that makes up for worse sale/leaseback rates, a strategy they do use for a proportion of their fleet.

On top of that, aren't FR's 738's among the lowest MTOW birds around? I could be mistaken, but had heard that the low weights combined with the integrated airstair means a lot of these birds end up with charter carriers.
 
ytz
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:17 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
That's insane, and it will never work.

You must not have been to India lately. The country is growing by leaps and bounds. Business travel is really ramping up. And the growing middle class is starting to take to the skies and passing up on trains. 250 aircraft over a decade or more isn't that much given the trajectory of their market.

This is a country with 3x the population of the USA and where the entire civil aviation sector probably has less seats than a single large US carrier (like WN). Yes, their economics aren't quite there yet, but they are growing and IndiGo is smart to get its growth plan in place, ahead of several emerging competitors.
 
b747400erf
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 83):

This is a country with 3x the population of the USA and where the entire civil aviation sector probably has less seats than a single large US carrier (like WN). Yes, their economics aren't quite there yet, but they are growing and IndiGo is smart to get its growth plan in place, ahead of several emerging competitors.

who is going to fly all these new aircraft?
 
ytz
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 84):
who is going to fly all these new aircraft?

I would presume that IndiGo will eventually have to launch it's own training programs or partner with someone to get the personnel they need. Or lobby the government to let in more foreigners.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 64):
they'd probably very happy that the A320neo just doesn't have enough range to Europe.

From North India:

ATH-SXR/IXC/DEL/JAI/IDR/AMD/BOM&DU=nm&SG=0.78&SU=mach" target="_blank">http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ATH-SXR.../IDR/AMD/BOM&DU=nm&SG=0.78&SU=mach

Maybe A3 should strike up a partnership with an Indian carrier to hub at ATH.....
 
b747400erf
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:27 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 85):
From North India:

I hope an airline forum would learn that great circle routes are never flown especially through heavily trafficked and volatile corridors like the Middle East.
 
ytz
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:44 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 86):
I hope an airline forum would learn that great circle routes are never flown especially through heavily trafficked and volatile corridors like the Middle East.

I hope most would know not to miss the forest for the trees while nitpicking on an observation.

Add whatever correction factor you like to the GC numbers and a good part of northern India is still accessible from the eastern Mediterranean by even a 321NEO (non-LR). That was my point.

TK must be salivating at the potential of the 321NEO and the Indian market, if the Indian government should ever be willing to open up more to them. And should someone have the foresight and correct partnerships, it's quite possible to have a European hub for northern India at ATH. Imagine the havoc such a partnership would wreak....
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting YTZ (Reply 87):
TK must be salivating at the potential of the 321NEO and the Indian market

Spot on, in the discussion on Iran aviation on this forum, I have mentioned this very fact as a game changer for IKA should the sanctions get lifted. In support of 6E and other airlines in India, the country is perfectly located for hubbing NB LR aircrafts covering almost the whole of Asia, connecting from IST-NRT (As per advt A321Neo range)

Quoting Vimanav (Reply 68):
Interglobe are the sole representatives of Travelport and not Amadeus. Amadeus is with the Bird Group.

Thanks for the correction and kind words.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 73):
I however wonder if 6E will keep aircraft 8 instead of 6 years. I suspect that is their 'relief valve.'. If demand justifies a third more aircraft, they will keep for 8. If not, they will still grow keeping airframes for 6. I expect we'll something in between.

The lease period is driven by maintenance events, consequently Maintenance reserves the airlines have to pay over the rentals. Every new tech will show an improvement on the TBO for the engines or escalation of the airframe checks.

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 84):
who is going to fly all these new aircraft?

What does it take to fly these airplanes ? A pilots career is the only job that can be bourght i.e Most pilots in FR and U2 have paid their way into that job and can't hope to get a similar paying job in any other industry because they will have to earn an academic qualification. Aviation industry in India is attracting serious interest from industry asso, resulting in the govt prioratising quality skills development. As a UK Lic engineer, I regularly meet crew on the likes of U2 and FR who have clocked hrs in Indian airlines to qualify for capt positions. There will be plenty of migration of these pilots to India from slower moving SE-Asian economies initially to start with, subsequently the UK-USA based flying schools will open shop there.
Plenty of clever/capable blokes in India who will risk an investment in Pilots career once the path is clear.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:24 am

Quoting YTZ (Reply 87):
TK must be salivating at the potential of the 321NEO and the Indian market, if the Indian government should ever be willing to open up more to them.

TK and 6E would be a formidable pairing. The further 6E flies the people, the more money for there share in a passenger transfer.

There is an opportunity there... Not just for connecting passengers. I'm sure there will be secondary cities to connect too. However, that would require better hubbing in India which is its own topic.

Quoting tayaramecanici (Reply 88):
The lease period is driven by maintenance events, consequently Maintenance reserves the airlines have to pay over the rentals. Every new tech will show an improvement on the TBO for the engines or escalation of the airframe checks.

There are other events earlier that could drive the lease period. I'm thinking 6E will make the lease length a bit optional to reduce risk. Oh, some leases will be 8 years, but 2 years early for a maintenance event is fine with many airlines. It will just have to be around a C-check to economize the transfer.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 87):
Add whatever correction factor you like to the GC numbers and a good part of northern India is still accessible from the eastern Mediterranean by even a 321NEO (non-LR). That was my point.

   I usually discount range 20% as a 'first pass.' Using that, ATH could add quite a few cities of India (assuming the bilateral rights).

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:30 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 89):
TK and 6E would be a formidable pairing. The further 6E flies the people, the more money for there share in a passenger transfer.

I think there is an over-estimation of Turkey's political clout in India as opposed to the ME3. Geopolitically, Turkey has been mostly antagonistic to India's interests since India became an independent nation and has been firmly on Pakistan's side with regard to regional conflicts. This has affected their ability to expand business in India, including aviation.
 
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RE: IndiGo Firms Order For 250 A320neos

Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:32 pm

Quoting snehnath (Reply 90):

I agree there is political contention. Yet business interests tend to trump old school politics. Put another way, as long as India keeps Turkey out, Turkey has no reason not to politically oppose India.

From a business case, 6E and TK makes sense. Everything else is emotions....

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.

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