Quoting nighthawk (Reply 95): I told you the sources you could check that verify my claims.

You did not bring any sources.

The point is GLA and EDI are quite different regarding the Airlines.
Your example is Etihad from EDI, but they do not fly from GLA. If you want a direct flight to DXB you fly out of GLA if you want a direct flight to AUH or DOH, you fly out of EDI. If you want to go direct to YYC or YVR you fly out of GLA and so on.

If you want to tell that Scottish People fly by principle either out of EDI or GLA to perhaps spend an hour less on the road but instead spending several extra hours waiting on an airport somewhere for a conection you have to show me something better than just your opinion. The friends I have in Scotland use both EDI and GLA according what fits better that time.

As you got the fewer transatlantic flights for GLA wrong you should perhaps check your opinions and look for corroborations. Regarding Europe, some direct flights you will only find at EDI and some only at GLA. The guy with the preconceived notions is you.

[Edited 2015-08-20 08:51:44]

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 100): You did not bring any sources.

I told you the sources - CAA passenger statistics. Look it up. My comments are based on facts which can easily be verified, yours are based on your friends behaviour. Not exactly scientific.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 100): The point is GLA and EDI are quite different regarding the Airlines.

And why do you think that is. Could it be that they serve different markets? If they both served "nearly the same market" then you wouldn't see the variation between the two that you do.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 100): Your example is Etihad from EDI, but they do not fly from GLA. If you want a direct flight to DXB you fly out of GLA if you want a direct flight to AUH or you fly out of EDI. If you want to go direct to YYC or YVR you fly out of GLA and so on.

Great selective quoting there. How about quoting my example of Continental. How about also quoting my example where numerous times I saw colleagues in Aberdeen flying via a hub to get to Dubai, rather than travelling down to Glasgow to fly direct.

Are you aware that most of the passengers onboard an Emirates/Etihad flight are actually connecting on to another flight? Emirates and Etihad compete with each other, as does Qatar. Most passengers are flying to Asia/Australia etc. Not to Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Doha, so this is indeed a valid example.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 100): As you got the fewer transatlantic flights for GLA wrong you should perhaps check your opinions and look for corroborations. Regarding Europe, some direct flights you will only find at EDI and some only at GLA. The guy with the preconceived notions is you.

I'm not sure what preconceived notions you think I have. You seem to be making assumptions again.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 100): You did not bring any sources.

You're fighting his anecdotes with your anecdotes, which are significantly less persuasive than his in my view. You have a few random people, and he has pointed to actual behavior of suppliers at the airports that tends to show they're two markets.

There's a whole branch of economics that considers problems like this, called industrial organizational economics. One thing they do is apply a bunch of tests, such as Elzinga-Hogarty and many others, to determine separateness of geographic markets. One place these analyses get applied is in antitrust and competition analyses by authorities like the EC and U.S DOJ. If you can show me an example of either the EC or an airline (probably the two most available sources relevant to this debate) analyzing GLA and EDI as a single market for airline service, then I'll side with you. Absent that, I'm inclined to believe that for the market-relevant of travelers (both inbound and outbound), these are separate markets.

[Edited 2015-08-20 08:59:09]

Bah - this EDI-GLA spat is just so SCOTTISH. (Don't forget they're first cousins of the northern Irish). My partner from Edinburgh was 24 before he went to Glasow for the first time (all of 40 minutes on the train), and it was an utterly alien experience apparently.

Despite all that Scots Enlightenment Heriitage (TM), reason is surprisingly absent north of the border on occasion. I dare say both N and M are right in many ways, but I'm guessing M has found himself in a tiff more passionate than he expected.   

oooh and I should say I'm basically Irish myself.

[Edited 2015-08-20 09:31:28]

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 101): I told you the sources - CAA passenger statistics. Look it up. My comments are based on facts which can easily be verified, yours are based on your friends behaviour. Not exactly scientific.

And what can this statistics tell us when quite a big part of the airlines fly either only to EDI or GLA and quite a few destinations are only offered on one airport.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 102): You're fighting anecdotes with anecdotes. There's a whole branch of economics that considers problems like this, called industrial organizational economics. One thing they do is apply a bunch of tests, such as Elzinga-Hogarty and many others, to determine separateness of geographic markets. One place these analyses get applied is in antitrust and competition analyses by authorities like the EC and U.S DOJ. If you can show me an example of either the EC or an airline (probably the two most available sources relevant to this debate) analyzing GLA and EDI as a single market for airline service, then I'll side with you. Absent that, I'm inclined to believe that for the market-relevant of travelers (both inbound and outbound), these are separate markets.

Than bring the analysis.
One airline analysing it as a single market is exactly Icelandair, with no plans to serve both.
Wizz Air, West jet, Virgin Atlantic for TATL, Thomas Cook, Onur Air, Niki, Icelandair, Emirates, Air Malta and AirTransat fly only from or into GLA.
Turkish Airlines, Vueling, United, SAS, Qatar, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Iberia express, Freebird, Finnair, Ethiad, Edelweiss, Brussels Airlines, AUA, Atlantic Airways, Air France and Air Canada Rouge are only at EDI.

Airlines serving both airports to and from different destinations.
Lufthansa in GLA does Munich in EDI Frankfurt.
AA does Phyladelphia from GLA and JFK from EDI.
If you wan to go with Air Lingus to Donegal you have to go to GLA
BA does Alicante, Barcelona, Faro, Ibiza, Malaga, Menorca, Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Reus, Salzburg, Venice-Marco Polo, Verona from GLA but not from EDI.
Easyjet does not fly a big part of their destinations from both. Same for Jet2 and Ryanair.

So apart from the LHR/LGW run you have pretty much to check each time where the direct flights are from, EDI or GLA.

Airports only 80 km or one hour driving apart will let people move to the airport with the airline or connection they prefer in each case. Airports further apart still influence each other.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 104): BA does Alicante, Barcelona, Faro, Ibiza, Malaga, Menorca, Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Reus, Salzburg, Venice-Marco Polo, Verona from GLA but not from EDI.

They also serve the majority of those from EDI as well.

There really is large parts of Glasgow folk who wont use EDI, and large numbers of EDI folk who would rather drive/take the train down to Manchester than fly from GLA.

GLA vs EDI is a very real thing, unfortunately, and it should be classed as two seperate markets.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 104): One airline analysing it as a single market is exactly Icelandair, with no plans to serve both.

No, all you've proven is that there are airlines that serve one and not the other. That could be because they see it as a single market, or it could be because they see it as two markets, one of which they can make money in and one not, or one of which they want to serve for some other reason and the other not.

For example - and to be intentionally ridiculous - EMA and LTN are about 85 miles apart by road (I realize that's a little beyond your perimeter, but it's illustrative). Thomson and Ryanair are the only carriers that fly to both. Several relatively significant carriers (U2, IB, BE, EI, W6, MT) serve one and not the other. FR serves several markets from each that it doesn't serve from the other. By your analysis, that would suggest those two airports serve the same market. For the vast majority of passengers for both airports (people from the London area at LTN and people from Nottingham, Derby, and Leicester on the other), that's simply not the case. I'd doubt that these two airports' actions and services have much impact on one another at all.

To really get at the crux of this, the basic test of geographic market definition is customer substitution: whether a significant number of people in one of the two allegedly separate markets will substitute to the other one in response to a small (roughly 5%) increase in the prices of flights, or alternatively whether there's a place you draw a line between the two for which a set threshold (usually 85%) of the customers for each fall on their respective side of the lines. A basic way to do this - although hardly foolproof and can only be used to confirm separate markets, not confirm a single market - is to check the relative prices to common destinations: if one airport can consistently hold a price premium over the other, that's a suggestion that they are in separate markets (absent barriers to entry like slot limitations that raise costs at one or the other).

[Edited 2015-08-20 11:51:00]

Quoting IADCA (Reply 106): For example - and to be intentionally ridiculous - EMA and LTN are about 85 miles apart by road (I realize that's a little beyond your perimeter, but it's illustrative). Thomson and Ryanair are the only carriers that fly to both. Several relatively significant carriers (U2, IB, BE, EI, W6, MT) serve one and not the other. FR serves several markets from each that it doesn't serve from the other. By your analysis, that would suggest those two airports serve the same market. For the vast majority of passengers for both airports (people from the London area at LTN and people from Nottingham, Derby, and Leicester on the other), that's simply not the case. I'd doubt that these two airports' actions and services have much impact on one another at all.

That is a bad example because you are comparing apples to oranges (London to a "rural" airport serving a number of small cities - Nottingham, Leicester and Derby -). No one from London using STN would even contemplate EMA.

GLA and EDI are quite unique because they are close and they relatively similar-sized cities. GLA might have a larger local base and business but on the other hand EDI has (far) more international tourism and cultural events and it is the political capital. Size of STN and EMA is completely different, and consequently the offered flights.

In the case of Scotland, I tend to agree with mjoelnir. For me the key is not the ME3 but the European carriers. The fact that major carriers like Lufthansa or Air France choose to serve only one of the two airports is crystal clear. The GLA-MUC and EDI-FRA is even funny, they maximise connectivity and local traffic with only two flights (i.e. if your trip is Edinburgh to Munich, they are basically telling you to drive to Glasgow and fly direct). If Air France would consider Glasgow a completely different market from Edinburgh no doubt they would fly there (they even fly to smaller cities in the UK such as Newcastle with Cityjet).

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 107): That is a bad example because you are comparing apples to oranges (London to a "rural" airport serving a number of small cities - Nottingham, Leicester and Derby -). No one from London using STN would even contemplate EMA.

That's exactly the point I was making: distance isn't the determiner, nor is taking a cursory look at which airlines serve which destinations. Actual market conditions are. Unless someone can show me actual figures that show a substantial leakage of Edinburgh passengers to Glasgow and vice versa, I'm going to follow my personal experience and the assertions of the Scots on here that they're two separate markets. (Further, you just cited some of the specific factors economists point to in showing why markets are separate: different types of demand, different levels of service despite similar size.)

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 107): If Air France would consider Glasgow a completely different market from Edinburgh no doubt they would fly there (they even fly to smaller cities in the UK such as Newcastle with Cityjet).

So why does KL, the other airline in the same group, fly AMS to both cities? Why does EI fly to both?

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 107): In the case of Scotland, I tend to agree with mjoelnir. For me the key is not the ME3 but the European carriers. The fact that major carriers like Lufthansa or Air France choose to serve only one of the two airports is crystal clear. The GLA-MUC and EDI-FRA is even funny, they maximise connectivity and local traffic with only two flights (i.e. if your trip is Edinburgh to Munich, they are basically telling you to drive to Glasgow and fly direct).

Or they're telling you that the business links between Scotland and Frankfurt are in Edinburgh and those between Scotland and Munich are in Glasgow.

Again, there is a way that economists actually do these analyses. In other words, there's a right way to do it. The methods used in this thread aren't it.

[Edited 2015-08-20 14:40:41]

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 41): To put things in perspective, BE operate INV-JER with the Q400 which is 581 miles and blocked at 2h 10m. This is 'only' 250 miles further, and still isn't longer than some of the flights operated by airBaltic - the likes of RIX-SIP.

Not sure if this was mentioned on here before but the wednesday SOU-PMI flight by Flybe is on a Q400, that can't be much further.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 108): So why does KL, the other airline in the same group, fly AMS to both cities? Why does EI fly to both?

Well I knew you were to say that. You just took the two exceptions which are very easy to refute.

KLM has the biggest network of any European carrier in the UK, serving pretty much every airport in the islands. KLM serves Humberside (only legacy there), Norwich (same), Durham (same)... they even were the only carrier in Manston. So KLM pretty much serves every airstrip in the UK. Aer Lingus is a relatively similar case with the addition of the strong links between Ireland and Scotland and the short flight.

But for other carriers, there is a complete split between EDI and GLA. The point is, AF, LH, AY, SN, I2, EK, EY, QR, TK serve similarly sized markets (and even smaller) in the UK, yet in Scotland they choose to serve only one of them... and they are pretty much equally split between the two airports.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 110): But for other carriers, there is a complete split between EDI and GLA. The point is, AF, LH, AY, SN, I2, EK, EY, QR, TK serve similarly sized markets (and even smaller) in the UK, yet in Scotland they choose to serve only one of them... and they are pretty much equally split between the two airports.

And my point is that that's not an answer. All you're doing is presenting a theory with no proof, or facts without the underlying reasons. Indeed, EK, QR, and EY (and to a certain extent, TK) splitting makes a lot of sense because they and QR all serving a city of the size of one of those two could easily threaten yields in their market, which is largely connecting passengers over their ME hubs into beyond destinations. That is, they're basically dividing separate markets because the two aren't each big enough on their own to support profitable service from all of them. SN likely serves EDI and not GLA because EDI and BRU are government-driven towns and GLA isn't. AF, again the business links (mostly financial sector) are with EDI, which is possibly they fly there and not GLA.

Similarly, one can look at the other end of the routes, not at carrier names: sure, FI only serves GLA, but KEF also has EDI service (on U2). Perhaps FI would have added the route to EDI if U2 didn't do it first but don't now because they couldn't make any money. Or maybe each carrier thinks that they really are one market in Scotland. You can't tell from this fact. Easyjet serves MUC from EDI, which is LH to GLA. Similarly, VIE will be served from each on different carriers. BCN is served by 2 carriers at each airport, neither of which overlap the two. To be clear, I don't think any of this - your points or mine - prove much of anything in either direction. You simply can't tell from something as high level as who flies where what the reasons for it are.

With respect, you just don't have the data at hand to actually make the argument stick. Customer behavior is what matters in defining markets, not producer behavior.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 108): Again, there is a way that economists actually do these analyses. In other words, there's a right way to do it. The methods used in this thread aren't it.

The only people wrong more often than economists are weathermen.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 105): They also serve the majority of those from EDI as well.

They do not. That are the ones they only serve from GLA.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 105): They also serve the majority of those from EDI as well.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 111): And my point is that that's not an answer. All you're doing is presenting a theory with no proof, or facts without the underlying reasons. Indeed, EK, QR, and EY (and to a certain extent, TK) splitting makes a lot of sense because they and QR all serving a city of the size of one of those two could easily threaten yields in their market, which is largely connecting passengers over their ME hubs into beyond destinations. That is, they're basically dividing separate markets because the two aren't each big enough on their own to support profitable service from all of them.

Different destinations is not the same market. And destinations served from one airport do not see reciprocal flights even by a different airline.
And strange is always to demand evidence without putting anything up themselves.
Were is the evidence that EDI and GLA serve different markets.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 113): Were is the evidence that EDI and GLA serve different markets.

Guess this is a typo, and you mean 'Where'.

I will give you my lifetime statistics. Brought up near Motherwelll, GLA is 8.5 km closer than EDI. Culturally I am hardcore Weegie.

Including ME3: EDI 93 flights, GLA 33 flights.
Excluding ME3: EDI 92 flights, GLA 27 flights.

As someone further up the thread correctly stated, people are reluctant to cross Glasgow if they don't need to. Such is the rivalry between the two cities, I was truly brought up to 'Hate people from Edinburgh more than the English'.    However, in the very real (and adult) world, EDI works much better for myself as a passenger.

BTW, I only used Qatar once, to EDI, mainly to test their product, first flights with them, and also the fact that the B788 flies there. Next time, I reverted to the EK 3-4-3 B77W, but that's taking this thread even more off topic.....  

Regards

B-2319

[edited as I originally mixed my 'including' and 'excluding' up.....numpty.....!]

[Edited 2015-08-20 16:26:54]

I even can get the Glasgow residents Edinburgh residents, but a lot of people in that area using those airports neither live in Glasgow nor Edinburgh, but in the other towns and villages in that area.
And as somebody said further up, quite a good part of the passengers for both airports fly into Scotland and are not aware that they should choose one and keep to it.

Quoting Reply 112): The only people wrong more often than economists are weathermen.

The two have one other thing in common: they're good at analyzing evidence from the past but crap at predicting it for the future. Here, we are talking past and present.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 113): And strange is always to demand evidence without putting anything up themselves. Were is the evidence that EDI and GLA serve different markets.

The best evidence would be data on the origins and destinations within Scotland of the passengers at each airport. I'll freely admit I don't have access to that data. The next best would be statements of carriers as to why they do or do not serve one or the other and the impact of service in one on service in the other. Only one person has alleged that such evidence exists, and he didn't actually quote it. My point is that the evidence I was responding to isn't just insufficient, it's not even the right kind of evidence. I'd also point out that it's strange people are like you are making assertions counter to those of the people who actually live in these places without some pretty darn good evidence that you're right.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 115): I even can get the Glasgow residents Edinburgh residents, but a lot of people in that area using those airports neither live in Glasgow nor Edinburgh, but in the other towns and villages in that area.

Which are a relatively small number of people relative to the people in Edinburgh and Glasgow themselves.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 113): And strange is always to demand evidence without putting anything up themselves.

It is YOU that has been demanding evidence, yet you've not provided any yourself. In fact you haven't even mentioned any, other than the opinion of you and a friend. I have told you numerous times what my sources are, all you need to do is go and look. But since you can't be bothered to do that, i'll do the legwork for you:


Central Belt air passengers prove reluctant to cross Harthill divide

AIR travellers from Edinburgh and Glasgow would rather connect through London or Europe than go to their rival city to use direct flights, according to airline managers.

Passengers living in east and central Scotland are reluctant to drive to Glasgow airport to use direct services and would rather make longer journeys to the United States through hubs such as Heathrow or Schiphol in Amsterdam, according to market research.
...
Continental has operated daily flights from Glasgow to Newark since 1998, but found it needed to serve Edinburgh as well - despite the cities being only 45 miles apart.

Mike Carter, senior director in Britain for Continental, said: "When we conducted research before starting the Edinburgh service we found a lot of passengers in that part of Scotland were not enthused about driving or catching the train to use the Glasgow service. Many, particularly high-spending customers travelling on business, preferred to use Edinburgh airport and get a connecting flight.

"That really demonstrated to us a distinct split in the market, and the need to serve both Edinburgh and Glasgow."

He added: "Since we began taking booking for our Edinburgh service we have noticed there has been no drop off in numbers on our Glasgow service, which would suggest that is also being supported by people relatively close to the airport."

Ken McNab, who owns the Travel Company agency, agreed. He said: "There is an east-west split in travel patterns and there seems to be an invisible divide at Harthill.

"A lot of businesspeople seem to prefer getting on a plane early on and being on their way, even if their journey ends up taking longer overall. For a lot of people that means saving on driving and parking at either end," he said. "This goes to underline just how important it is for Scotland to have direct air links into key cities. Now that we have these links, it is imperative to use them."

Source: http://www.scotsman.com/news/central...-to-cross-harthill-divide-1-534813

Likewise, Emirates have seen no drop in traffic after Qatar and Etihad launched services from Edinburgh, and American has seen no drop off in traffic on their Glasgow route since launching flights from Edinburgh.

Quoting b2319 (Reply 114): I will give you my lifetime statistics. Brought up near Motherwelll, GLA is 8.5 km closer than EDI. Culturally I am hardcore Weegie. Including ME3: EDI 93 flights, GLA 33 flights. Excluding ME3: EDI 92 flights, GLA 27 flights.

That's a good way of looking at it. Here's my lifetime statistics. Based in SW Fife roughly 20 mins to EDI, roughly 1h30m to GLA:

Departures from:
EDI 490 flights, GLA 8 flights (2 of these were departures to EDI after diversions), DND 2 flights

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 118): That's a good way of looking at it. Here's my lifetime statistics. Based in SW Fife roughly 20 mins to EDI, roughly 1h30m to GLA: Departures from: EDI 490 flights, GLA 8 flights (2 of these were departures to EDI after diversions), DND 2 flights

Out of interest - how many of those EDI flights were connecting flights to destinations you could have flown to non-stop from Glasgow?

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 119): how many of those EDI flights were connecting flights to destinations you could have flown to non-stop from Glasgow?

Probably none, or close to none. That's not the type of flying I do ex-Scotland (e.g. yes, I have flown to/from MUC, but I take EZY non-stop from/to EDI rather than trek across to GLA to pay a lot more on LH).

Quoting AndyEastMids (Reply 31): 4. Air Iceland primarily operate out of RKV, not KEF. Are they going to hop the Q400 between the two four times a week to cover the ABZ sectors? If not, what is the KEF based Q400 going to do for the rest of the time - there is little do and for domestic flights out of KEF as its too far from the city and the airport isn't really set up for domestic flights

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 35): Quoting AndyEastMids (Reply 31): 3. What happens with the Q400 on the other three days There are some other destinations like FAE.

How about W-patterning it with year-round Akureyri flights? Not sure what demand is there for connections to/from Akureyri off-season, though. Maybe Air Iceland will also shift Greenland flights to KEF - or are these almost exclusively booked with local traffic rather than folks connecting from Europe or the US?

[Edited 2015-08-21 05:35:20]

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 121): How about W-patterning it with year-round Akureyri flights? Not sure what demand is there for connections to/from Akureyri off-season, though. Maybe Air Iceland will also shift Greenland flights to KEF - or are these almost exclusively booked with local traffic rather than folks connecting from Europe or the US?

They are shifting Nuuk to KEF sometime this autumn, I do not know if it will be only for the winter season. FAE is done from RKV as also the competition, Atlantic Airways, is doing FAE -RKV with an A319. Domestic flying will stay at RKV, apart from one flight doing AEY - KEF - AEY.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 117):

A bit slim. One airline, now United, one destination EWR. Talking about this when opening the connection from EDI.
One travel agency and the guy responsible for opening new direct routes giving speeches for that occasion.
I thought you relied on hard statistical data.
To bad that the second destination United serves from Scotland is only done out of one airport.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 123): A bit slim. One airline, now United, one destination EWR. Talking about this when opening the connection from EDI. One travel agency and the guy responsible for opening new direct routes giving speeches for that occasion. I thought you relied on hard statistical data. To bad that the second destination United serves from Scotland is only done out of one airport.

ENOUGH. I can't believe I had to do this for you, but I dug up the 2013 passenger stats from the CAA (hope that's current enough for you, but I suspect you'll probably try to pick that bone rather than admitting that you're just wrong). Here: http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/81/2013CAAPaxSurveyReport.pdf

Look at table 5.6 for O&D stats on GLA and 5.4 for EDI.

You'll note that less than 4% of EDI passengers came from Glasgow in 2013. Over 51% were from Edinburgh city itself, and additional 10.4% from Fife, almost 5% from West Lothian, and almost exactly the same number from Perth as Glasgow.

From Glasgow, 36.7% were from Glasgow itself, 7.9% from Renfrewshire, 8.4% from S. Lanarkshire, 5.7% from N. Lanarkshire, and slightly over 4% from E. Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute.

Note that there is not a single place in Scotland that provided more than 4% of the passengers to each airport. In other words, the major sources of passengers for each are nearly completely independent from each other.

But don't stop there: you can combine those two tables by typing them into Excel. I did. You can too. Here's what they'll tell you, in a few notable snippets:

Almost exactly 2/3 of the combined traffic to and from the 2 airports in 2013 came from six of the 31 jurisdictions on the list: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Fife, Renfrewshire, S. Lanarkshire, and W. Lothian. No other jurisdiction provided over 3% of the total traffic of the two airports.

Of those, only ONE had less than an 80/20 split of its passengers: S. Lanarkshire, which was 79.6% GLA. By comparison, W. Lothian was 87% EDI, Glasgow itself was 85.6% GLA, Renfrewshire was 93.6% GLA. Edinburgh was 97.5% EDI, and Fife wasn't far behind at 93.2% EDI.

You asked for data. There are the data. This evidence correlates with what the Scots on this thread have been saying. It correlates with the statement from Continental. Please just admit now that you were wrong.



[Edited 2015-08-21 14:52:28]