Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

bakestar · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:12 pm

So after much speculation, Qantas has finally announced on the back of a pre-tax profit of just under AUD$1 Billlion, the purchase of an initial eight 787-9 Dreamliners, to be delivered from 2017, and gradually replace five older Boeing 747s.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/av...-cheaper-fuel-20150819-gj2evv.html

Someone said it a little while ago. Qantas are getting their mojo back.

Hooray!

absolutelyAN · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:14 pm

Eight to replace Five!... So maybe some new destinations?

DeltaB717 · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:21 pm

And what a stunning mojo the 789 will make!!! Very excited by this news

A35J · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:24 pm

Has QF converted all the options they had available for FY17/18? I seem to remember reading somewhere they had five options for the 789 in 2017 but I might be wrong there (and I can't find the source - sorry

)

In any case a big congratulations to QF and Boeing! This has been a long time coming at it is great that QF is once again in a financial position to start taking aircraft.

zkokq · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:28 pm

How great is this! Well done to the whole team at Qantas!

Sydscott · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:31 pm

I posted all of this in the australian aviation thread but for clarity sake:

A large number of announcements today from Qantas:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150820/pdf/430myx7kw5b690.pdf

A $505 million return of capital proposed as a 23 cent per share cash distribution.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150820/pdf/430mz48490snx1.pdf

As stated by QF2220, an order for 8 787-9's to replace 5 Boeing 747-400's and grow the fleet.

Note that of the 8 789's ordered 5 are from the exercise of options and the other 3 are a conversion of the JQ 788 order into 789's. So no further 787's are going to Jetstar for now.

Four to arrive in 2018 and 4 in 2019.

This will leave QF with the 6 744ER's only.

QF retaining 15 options and 30 more purchase rights.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150820/pdf/430mz7qwnwyp30.pdf

QF Investor Update with financial highlights.

- Underlying PBT - $975 million
- Overall CASK down 5.1%
- Overall Yield up 1.1%
- Underlying EBIT of $480 million for QF domestic; (2014 $30 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $267 million for QF International (2014 $-497 million excluding the fleet writedown)
- Underlying EBIT of $230 million for Jetstar; (2014 -$116 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $315 million for Loyalty; (2014 $286 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $114 million for Freight: (2014 $24 million)

From Jetstar:
- Jetstar New Zealand op profitable for the first time:
- Jetstar Asia returned to profit:
- Jetstar Pacific profitable;
- Jetstar Japan huge improvement - (ie still unprofitable. LOL)

If anyone is interested in the finer details, the supplementary slides are also here.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150820/pdf/430mz9hzsbddlq.pdf

jfk777 · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:33 pm

Finally Qantas buys the 787 for "Qantas" and not Jetstar. What took so long? It seems Qantas is the last major airline in the Asia-Pacific to fly the 787 but was among the first to order it.

LandSweetLand · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:35 pm

Yeah, it'll look nice.
But I still like the beauty of the 747 in QF livery.

zkojq · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:45 pm

Finally! Can't wait to fly on one.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
From Jetstar:
- Jetstar New Zealand op profitable for the first time

They started NZ operations in 2009. Took them long enough!

Quoting absolutelyAN (Reply 1):
Eight to replace Five!... So maybe some new destinations?

Fingers crossed for a return to AKL-LAX-AKL!

[Edited 2015-08-19 16:48:01]

dubaiamman243 · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:47 pm

Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago. Posted on fb by Australian Business Traveler.

Stitch · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:47 pm

Quoting A35J (Reply 3):
Has QF converted all the options they had available for FY17/18?

The first five options had a conversion date of FY2016, but QF pushed them back to FY2017.

They also have six options due in FY2018, seven in FY2019 and two in FY2020. The purchase rights cover delivery positions between FY2020 and FY2025.

[Edited 2015-08-19 16:47:42]

bakestar · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:49 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 6):
Finally Qantas buys the 787 for "Qantas" and not Jetstar. What took so long? It seems Qantas is the last major airline in the Asia-Pacific to fly the 787 but was among the first to order it.

Some time ago Qantas were 'apparently' struggling. What with fuel prices, the Australian dollar and unions. Jetstar i would think was maybe something of a cash-cow until things improved. Correct me if wrong.

Now things have improved, they can open the Qantas wallet to spend on a few things.

RyanairGuru · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:51 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 6):

What took so long? Qantas posted a $2 billion loss last year and the International network has made a profit this year for the first time in over a decade. Alan Joyce has been very clear all along, QF will order the 787 when it's cost of capital is in the right place and the international operation is making a profit. That time has finally come.

A massive congratulations must go out to Qantas on their profit this year. While a lot of last years loss was an accounting exercise and fuel has certainly helped (although the decline of the AUD against the USD means that the overall impact wasn't as substantial as for the US carriers), the massive cost reduction exercise over the past couple of years coupled with rebounding revenue (especially in the Domestic network) has been instrumental in delivering this result. It is also great to see Jetstar Asia and Jetstar Pacific in the black.

Out of interest when is the last time that all devisions posted a profit? Has it ever happened in this millennium?

[Edited 2015-08-19 16:53:30]

DeltaB717 · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:56 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 6):
What took so long?

Discipline!

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):

That picture was taken from QF's presentation and specifically says destinations shown for range illustration purposes only. I don't believe QF intends anything else to be interpreted from this picture other than "oh wow, look how far that thing can fly".

qf002 · Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:59 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
Four to arrive in 2018 and 4 in 2019.

Financial years, not calendar years. So the first aircraft will be delivered in the second half of 2017 and the last in the first half of 2019. Unfortunately they have relinquished the ten other options they held for during this period, which all but rules out a top-up order any time in the next couple of years.

It's also not good news for the A380s. I imagine they will be pushed back again or QF will figure something out with Airbus to get them off the books altogether.

L0VE2FLY · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:00 am

This is only the first batch, we'll certainly see more than 8 787s in QF's fleet in the not so distant future. There will be quite a big gap between the 789 & the A380 when the 747s are retired, so my question is not if but when the 777X or A350 will join the QF fleet?

Quoting absolutelyAN (Reply 1):
Eight to replace Five!... So maybe some new destinations?

BNE-DXB-LHR, the resumption of SYD-SFO, maybe even AKL-LAX if AA doesn't start it.

qf002 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:02 am

Here she is!

qf789 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:03 am

Congrats to QF on a big profit and finally a 787-9 order. Looking forward to flying them in the future.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
The first five options had a conversion date of FY2016, but QF pushed them back to FY2017.

They also have six options due in FY2018, seven in FY2019 and two in FY2020. The purchase rights cover delivery positions between FY2020 and FY2025.

Out of the 8 4 will arrive in FY 2017/2018 and 4 in FY 2018/2019 so it seems that they may have pushed some of their options back.

phxa340 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:03 am

But aren't these options more expensive now since the AUD has devalued so much ? Or do purchase rights cover currency fluctuation ?

Gasman · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:03 am

Quoting bakestar (Thread starter):
Someone said it a little while ago. Qantas are getting their mojo back.

As I discovered nearly a year ago when I gave QF a try on a AKL-JFK-AKL trip. And fantastic news about the healthy profit. They have just shown it's possible to have a generous in-flight product and be financially viable at the same time.

I wish Air New Zealand had woken up to this concept, but it's too late for me now. Well and truly switched allegiance.

A35J · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:03 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
The first five options had a conversion date of FY2016, but QF pushed them back to FY2017.

Thanks for that! It will be really interesting to see how many of the remaining 15 options and if any of the purchase rights are also converted. Exciting times for the QF.

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago

That is a rather bizarre graphic, I certainly can't see Moscow and even less likely Addis Ababa ever being flown to by Qantas.

My guess would be the extra frames above replacement of the RR 744s being used to make BNE/MEL-LAX double daily.

uberflieger · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:06 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):
A massive congratulations must go out to Qantas

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
Jetstar New Zealand op profitable for the first time

LAX-AKL

777Jet · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:11 am

Great news and hardly a surprise.

This announcement came exactly one week earlier than I predicted.

IMHO the 789 will look stunning in QF livery.

Way to go QF!

briguychau · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:12 am

I can see YVR being served by a 787-9.

RyanairGuru · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 18):

Technically yes, the orders will be in USD. Anything that QF purchases now, though, will be more expensive than 2 years ago. It still made sense to wait until they could finance them on reasonable terms as it is quite possible that the 'cost of acquisition' (for want of a better phrase) is actually lower now than 12-24 months ago even if the purchase price is higher when expressed in AUD.

There is probably also an element of 'speak now or forever hold your peace'. Qantas got a screaming deal on the 787s (rumors were in the $50 million range). That is a minuscule amount compared to what they would be on the hook for if they ordered the 787 or A350 today. Their costs on the long term would therefore be significantly higher if they let these options slip.

There was an article in AusBT a month or so ago suggesting that Qantas seriously evaluated the A350 but simply could not justify purchasing it when the acquisition costs of the 787 was so cheap. The numbers simply could not be made to stack up when financing costs were included in the equation. Now I'd take the suggestion that Qantas were serious about the A350 with a grain of salt as the article was unsourced and AusBT definitely has a pro-Airbus outlook on life, but I don't disagree with the fundamental premise of the article. I'm sure that Qantas did run the numbers on the A350 to confirm that whichever way they diced it the 787 was the best airplane for them overall.

On ANet we are prone to look at single routes or airplanes in isolation and say that the A330 beats the 777 in terms of costs on X and that the size of the A35J is a better replacement size-wise for the 747, but the airlines don't look at it that way. They are only concerned about costs and profits.

aerokiwi · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:24 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):
While a lot of last years loss was an accounting exercise and fuel has certainly helped (although the decline of the AUD against the USD means that the overall impact wasn't as substantial as for the US carriers)

Ha! So the magical mystery turnaround in a year was really an exercise in "creative thinking". I'm sure retail invesotrs are thrilled.

And Fairfax was reporting yesterday that the fuel savings from last year, even after the AUD depreciation, were about $550 million, so fairly substantial.

But good to see QF not repeating past errors with fleet choices. The 787 will work well for them. Interesting that JQ has called a halt to 788s.

Zkpilot · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:33 am

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago. Posted on fb by Australian Business Traveler.

Well you can forget Moscow, Adis Ababa... not happening.

They'll put them onto the SYD-YVR route and possibly AKL-LAX if AA doesn't.
Possible BNE-LAX-JFK with additional BNE-LAX 2-3x per week.

Sydscott · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:37 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
Technically yes, the orders will be in USD. Anything that QF purchases now, though, will be more expensive than 2 years ago. It still made sense to wait until they could finance them on reasonable terms as it is quite possible that the 'cost of acquisition' (for want of a better phrase) is actually lower now than 12-24 months ago even if the purchase price is higher when expressed in AUD.

There is probably also an element of 'speak now or forever hold your peace'. Qantas got a screaming deal on the 787s (rumors were in the $50 million range). That is a minuscule amount compared to what they would be on the hook for if they ordered the 787 or A350 today. Their costs on the long term would therefore be significantly higher if they let these options slip.

The other thing to contemplate with the whole Airbus A350 vs Boeing 787 thing is that QF derives a significant amount of its revenue in USD from the US. So even if the Australian Dollar does move and on paper make things more expensive for QF, there is in effect an almost natural hedge in the amount of USD revenue they derive which they can use to pay for Boeings. Whereas the amount QF derives in EURO is now less with EK & QF probably settling up in either USD or AUD and the London services generating GBP. So they're not in the same position to generate EURO's as they are USD for financing new aircraft.

VAM8789 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:45 am

Can the 789 make SYD-DXB non-stop?

dubaiamman243 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:45 am

@AusBT: Alan Joyce namechecks Melbourne-Dallas as a potential route for the Boeing 787-9

RickNRoll · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:45 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
It's also not good news for the A380s. I imagine they will be pushed back again or QF will figure something out with Airbus to get them off the books altogether.

The A380s are a part of the return to profit.

Sydscott · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:47 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 26):
Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago. Posted on fb by Australian Business Traveler.

Well you can forget Moscow, Adis Ababa... not happening.

They'll put them onto the SYD-YVR route and possibly AKL-LAX if AA doesn't.
Possible BNE-LAX-JFK with additional BNE-LAX 2-3x per week.

I believe the chart is there to show range rather than destination suggestions.

With 5 744's leaving the fleet and a net gain of only 3, the destinations for the 789's are relatively easy to pick:

SYD-SCL - needs the 744ER
SYD-JNB - needs the 744ER
SYD-HKG - does it really need the 744? AJ has publicly said he's considering putting more capacity into HKG. So maybe we see a double daily SYD-HKG.
SYD-HND - will probably stay Boeing 744.
SYD-SFO - prime 789 route;
BNE-LAX-JFK - prime 789 route;
2nd Daily SYD-LAX - 789 to replace the 744
SYD-YVR - prime 789 route.

For growth I think the options are also relatively obvious:

BNE-DXB - possible if EK needs more growth and would be good for QF loyalty;
MEL-DFW - an obvious way to grow MEL;
BNE-DFW - to make up for the loss of capacity with BNE-LAX going 789

I don't think you'll see QF back on AKL-LAX, there are too many other opportunities and AA is better equipped to handle it.

The more interesting thing in this profit announcement so far is the lack of excitement about the A320NEO's coming into the Jetstar Group. It'll be really interesting to see which part of JQ gets those first!

A35J · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:47 am

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 28):
Can the 789 make SYD-DXB non-stop?

EY flies their 789 AUH-BNE (albeit with a reasonably low density configuration) so I would image there wouldn't be a probably flying SYD-DXB. I would have to defer to someone with more expertise to say whether it could carry any payload in addition to the passengers.

travelhound · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:51 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 18):
But aren't these options more expensive now since the AUD has devalued so much ? Or do purchase rights cover currency fluctuation ?

Fortunately for QANTAS some of their incomes are derived in US dollars (Oz-US market), so they have a natural hedge for the purchase of aircraft. The savings will ultimately be operational, so the falling Australian dollar will have little impact on their costs.

Quoting A35J (Reply 20):
My guess would be the extra frames above replacement of the RR 744s being used to make BNE/MEL-

I would expect some of the five 747's to remain in the QANTAS fleet sometime after the 787's arrive. QANTAS will have a lot if flexibility on when to retire aircraft.

thekorean · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:52 am

So the red kangaroo can finally return to ICN??? Please?

qf2220 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:57 am

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago. Posted on fb by Australian Business Traveler.

Quoting A35J (Reply 20):

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 26):

If you look at the bottom of the graphic, it says "Destinations shown for range illustration only". They are saying nothing at all about going to those places.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
SYD-SCL - needs the 744ERSYD-JNB - needs the 744ER

Unless the ETOPS/ETDO rules are changed...

Gemuser · Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:57 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 27):
there is in effect an almost natural hedge in the amount of USD revenue they derive which they can use to pay for Boeings. Whereas the amount QF derives in EURO is now less with EK & QF probably settling up in either USD or AUD and the London services generating GBP

Err - no! My understanding (correct if wrong) is that Airbus aircraft are priced in USDs NOT Euros so QFs natural hedge works just as well for Airbus aircraft as it does for Boeings.

Gemuser

RyanairGuru · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:00 am

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 25):
Ha! So the magical mystery turnaround in a year was really an exercise in "creative thinking". I'm sure retail invesotrs are thrilled.

Well it isn't a closely guarded secret that it was "creative thinking" to use your phrase. It was very clear 12 months ago that a big portion of their loss was in write downs. Their fleet was massively overvalued and they decided to take the hit in one go rather than spread it out over four or five years. Alan Joyce directly addressed that point last year.

The cynics say that the reason that the fleet was overvalued is that they didn't write it down in previous years to artificially inflate their profit. I won't comment on that.

Are the retail investors happy? They have taken a serious beating over recent years, no doubt about it, but for the first time in a very long time Qantas is returning capital to investors and the share price is heading upwards.

Personally I'd say it was the right decision to front load all the bad news, but reasonable minds will differ.

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 25):
Interesting that JQ has called a halt to 788s.

Hardly a big surprise, and I never expected them to get more, at least not in the short term. They have 13 787s for 12 A330s, and with weak yields in the DPS market, a massive increase in capacity from QF and NH in Japan depressing prices for the full service carriers (and therefore making JQ less attractive), and slower growth in the HNL market on the back of the rebounding USD, they really are running out of growth markets. China would be an interesting case, and Wuhan shows that it is a market they are evaluating, but with trash yields due to the Chinese carriers, especially CZ, throwing limitless capacity into the market I doubt there is a pot of gold there. Maintaining the status quo at Jetstar was pretty much inevitable.

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 28):
Can the 789 make SYD-DXB non-stop?

Easily, without breaking a sweat. SYD-DXB is shorter than SYD-LAX, and the winds are less of an issue westbound on SYD-DXB compared to the Southern Pacific Ocean.

[Edited 2015-08-19 18:03:35]

travelhound · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:01 am

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 25):
Ha! So the magical mystery turnaround in a year was really an exercise in "creative thinking". I'm sure retail invesotrs are thrilled.

Share price currently its highest since 2008, so yes the retail investors seem to be thrilled!

Bluebird191 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:01 am

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago.

All are current destinations barring Mosccow, Mexico City and Addis Ababa, and the three of them are extremely unlikely to eventuate for QF, even with the dash-9. QF are much mor likely to add new routes from their current destinations like BNE-DFW, BNE/MEL-SFO, BNE/PER-DXB, etc, or converting SYD-YVR from seasonal to year round.

Could we see the possibility of JQ pilots flying the 787-9's but with QF cabin crew? Maybe under a damp or wet lease arrangement as they already have experience flying the 787, just that we would see the aircraft in QF livery and internal branding and service levels, just with a JQ cost base.

qfvhoqa · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:05 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
Note that of the 8 789's ordered 5 are from the exercise of options and the other 3 are a conversion of the JQ 788 order into 789's. So no further 787's are going to Jetstar for now.

It appears that there's limited growth opportunities for JQi. I would say that the expansion of Scoot/NokScoot, Indonesia Air Asia Extra/Thai Air Asia X are a threat to JQi.

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago. Posted on fb by Australian Business Traveler.

AusBT are clutching at straws with that tweet. It's just clickbait, which they are starting to do all too often.

Quoting A35J (Reply 20):
That is a rather bizarre graphic, I certainly can't see Moscow and even less likely Addis Ababa ever being flown to by Qantas.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 26):
Well you can forget Moscow, Adis Ababa... not happening.

Underneath the graphic, QF states "Destinations shown for range illustration only". It's not a wishlist of potential destinations.

DeltaB717 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:07 am

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 35):
Unless the ETOPS/ETDO rules are changed...

They already are changed, I think Sydscott's point is more likely about the capacity than the capability?

Enobar · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:08 am

I think this is quite a sensible and safe order from QF. I would imagine that the 8 x frames replacing the 5 747s would keep capacity at a rather modest increase, while allowing the capacity to be spread over new destinations. I'd put some money on an extra SFO route an YVC year round. Exciting times for them!

While reduced fuel prices have no doubt helped, its still an outstanding turn around and I think once and for all vindicates AJ's strategy and cements the boards choice to put him in the top job over John Borghetti. It was also nice to read in AJ's address his acknowledgement and thanks to the staff for their part in the turn around. It certainly didn't feel like he just took all the glory for himself (though he did have a grin like a cheshire cat!).

Also of interest throughout todays media releases is that customer satisfaction is at record levels even though costs have been slashed. As a regular QF flier, I totally agree - the service standards seem higher now than any time I can remember and the equipment & lounges are better than ever. That is probably the biggest achievement of all IMO.

Yup... the Mojo is back at the red roo... and what great Mojo it is!

qf002 · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:12 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 34):
So the red kangaroo can finally return to ICN??? Please?

Yes please! Though I would expect ICN to be an A330 route rather than a 787 one.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 37):
They have 13 787s for 12 A330s,

It's a one-for-one replacement (11 for 11) but with more than 10% more capacity per frame.

I agree entirely though -- JQ's scope for expansion is actually fairly limited and we are more likely to see them shift capacity around as new opportunities open up rather than being able to sustain current operations PLUS add more on top of that.

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 39):
Could we see the possibility of JQ pilots flying the 787-9's but with QF cabin crew?

No. QF committed to any QF 787s being operated by QF pilots as part of the recent EBA negotiations.

ZuluAlpha · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:16 am

My biggest interest will be what the cabin layout will be for the 789's

I think it is pretty certain hat there will be no F cabin.

I guess the biggest question will there be a PY cabin on board. You would have to suspect that there would be since the press release basically says it is replacing the older 744's.

Any guesses as to the config ?

RyanairGuru · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:28 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
With 5 744's leaving the fleet and a net gain of only 3, the destinations for the 789's are relatively easy to pick:

SYD-SCL - needs the 744ER
SYD-JNB - needs the 744ER
SYD-HKG - does it really need the 744? AJ has publicly said he's considering putting more capacity into HKG. So maybe we see a double daily SYD-HKG.
SYD-HND - will probably stay Boeing 744.
SYD-SFO - prime 789 route;
BNE-LAX-JFK - prime 789 route;
2nd Daily SYD-LAX - 789 to replace the 744
SYD-YVR - prime 789 route.

For growth I think the options are also relatively obvious:

BNE-DXB - possible if EK needs more growth and would be good for QF loyalty;
MEL-DFW - an obvious way to grow MEL;
BNE-DFW - to make up for the loss of capacity with BNE-LAX going 789

I was wondering the same, and this is how I see it:

Increase QF17/18 from 3 weekly to 5 weekly, increase QF95/96 from 2 weekly to 3 weekly, increase QF73/74 to daily, make QF75/76 year-round 3/4 weekly. This would require five frames, and would replace 3 747s.

After that I'm not so sure. BNE-LAX-JFK might be the obvious one, but if CASA permits it I wouldn't be surprised if QF15/16 stays with the 747 and QF27/28 is switched to the 789 operating 5-7 weekly depending on season. Either of those options would realistically require 2 frames, bringing the total to 7. With 1 in maintenance, that is the fleet accounted for. Other than YVR, I don't see much room for growth with just 8 frames.

Unless...

Quoting travelhound (Reply 33):
I would expect some of the five 747's to remain in the QANTAS fleet sometime after the 787's arrive

I agree.

VH-OEB and VH-OJM are clearly not long for this world, but I really wouldn't be surprised if VH-OJS, VH-OJT, and VH-OJU stayed around until the end of the decade. If QF15/16 and QF27/28 continued to be operated by 747s then that would free up 2 787s for expansion. If you are looking at DXB or DFW you are only talking about 7 weekly frequencies with 2 frames, but that could be enough to operate BNE-DXB daily or BNE-DFW 3 weekly, MEL-DFW 4 weekly for example.

travelhound · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:42 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 40):
It appears that there's limited growth opportunities for JQi. I would say that the expansion of Scoot/NokScoot, Indonesia Air Asia Extra/Thai Air Asia X are a threat to JQi.

It's all about timing!

QANTAS invested in JQ when LCC's were growing in the market place. There is now a requirement to replace aircraft in the mainline fleet and QANTAS are investing accordingly!

If we look at product (seats, meals, lounges) and service (IT), QANTAS have already had quite a few years of strong investment!

In addition to this QANTAS have greatly expanded their route network. The customer has never had so many destination and route choices!

With all of these elements coming together, I suspect the best is still to come.

If we take out all if the angst, this is how a quality airline should be run!

[Edited 2015-08-19 18:47:15]

tullamarine · Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 45):
VH-OEB and VH-OJM are clearly not long for this world, but I really wouldn't be surprised if VH-OJS, VH-OJT, and VH-OJU stayed around until the end of the decade.

The remaining life of the 744s is probably very much a function of fuel prices. With fuel prices currently at remarkably low levels (even adjusting for the sliding AUD), QF can make good money operating these fully depreciated planes for a few more years. If the fuel price starts to trend up, then the economics of the 744 turn dire and they will be off to the desert as quickly as QF can replace them.

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 9):
Qantas hints at new destinations to be able blocked by the B789: Auckland, Dubai, Moscow, LAX, Dallas, MEX, Adiss Ababa, HKG, Bangkok, Tokyo, NYC and Santiago.

It is very unlikely that QF would want to operate to any port west of DXB using its own metal other than LHR. EK do these ports with better frequencies and better economics.

allrite · Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:00 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 43):
Yes please! Though I would expect ICN to be an A330 route rather than a 787 one.

Depending on domestic demand the A330 refurbishment should give QF the flexibility to utilise their A330 aircraft on international routes should the right opportunities arise.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 40):
It appears that there's limited growth opportunities for JQi. I would say that the expansion of Scoot/NokScoot, Indonesia Air Asia Extra/Thai Air Asia X are a threat to JQi.

I'd agree, though I also think the current level of discounting on the other medium-haul LCC carriers is unsustainable. Jetstar's 788s are probably best used for:

* Connecting the Asian Jetstar franchises with Australia (Japan/Singapore)
* Flights to leisure destinations where absolute demand warrants (Bali, Thailand), though this is at most risk of competition.
* Pathfinder flights to new destinations that can be cancelled without so much risk to the reputation to Qantas mainline (China?)

qfvhoqa · Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:10 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
It's also not good news for the A380s.

In some ways, yes. But I think it also depends on what happens with the AU-UAE bliateral, given EK has run out of frequencies to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER. Should the status quo remain for some time, EK will probably need to use QF to expand its DXB flying. If QR gets the AU-Qatar bilateral expanded then I don't know that the AU-UAE one will get any more capacity.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
With 5 744's leaving the fleet and a net gain of only 3, the destinations for the 789's are relatively easy to pick:

That's a pretty good assessment of the potential 789 routes.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
The more interesting thing in this profit announcement so far is the lack of excitement about the A320NEO's coming into the Jetstar Group. It'll be really interesting to see which part of JQ gets those first!

I would think JQd would get them first, being the most profitable member of the JQ group. It would be useful for JQ's longer domestic flights like those to PER/DRW/CNS. I can see the A320s flying to DPS replaced by A320neo too.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 43):
Yes please! Though I would expect ICN to be an A330 route rather than a 787 one.

It could come about as a seasonal summer flight to start with - KE is even sending an A380 this year so there's obviously strong demand.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 45):
QF27/28 is switched to the 789 operating 5-7 weekly depending on season

That would help them get an edge over the LA flights - though LA stop at AKL, they are more than daily. I think business pax would choose a flight on their preferred day rather than change days to avoid a non-stop.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 45):
I really wouldn't be surprised if VH-OJS, VH-OJT, and VH-OJU stayed around until the end of the decade.

If fuel remains affordable then this will be quite likely. As other airlines have delayed retiring older aircraft (e.g. NZ's 763s) we should see QF do the same.

Quoting allrite (Reply 48):
Connecting the Asian Jetstar franchises with Australia (Japan/Singapore)

JQ really missed an opportunity by allowing TZ onto OOL-SIN first. OOL is strong for JQ and could have kept TZ out of the market for a while (like MEL-SIN).

Quoting allrite (Reply 48):
Pathfinder flights to new destinations that can be cancelled without so much risk to the reputation to Qantas mainline (China?)

If JQ can get more routes run as a scheduled charter flight then we might see more of the OOL-WUH type. If the Chinese casino gets built at CNS I can see JQ picking up a route there.

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