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CXfirst
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:16 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
MEL-DFW - an obvious way to grow MEL;

Might be a stretch. A very long flight, probably too far.

-CXfirst
 
qf71
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:45 am

Exciting times today. I was so excited for this news to be announced by QF Publically.

As per the 8 B787s on order, these will just replace B747s on existing routes. My guess is with 8x B787s and 6x B747s QF might do the following.

B787-9 Fleet (8 Aircraft)
Sydney - San Francisco /3x Weekly, whilst operates by a B747-400 4x Weekly
Sydney - Vancouver 4x Weekly - SYD-SFO/YVR ops take 2.0 Frames)
Sydney - Tokyo Haneda /Daily (2.0 Frames)
Sydney - Hong Kong /Twice Daily (2.0 Frames)
Sydney - Santiago /Daily (2.0 Frames) - retimed with afternoon departure ex SYD

B747-400ER Fleet (6 Aircraft)
Brisbane - Los Angeles - New York Daily
Sydney - Los Angeles/ 3x Weekly
Sydney - San Francisco/ 4x Weekly
Sydney - Johannesburg/ Daily

The above would be highly efficient and cost effective, however the problem of no operational slack is evident.
Still there is a chance of more A380s joining the fleet, especially should QF and EK decide to jointly grow some opportunities in Europe.

Think QF operating a Daily SYD-DXB-FRA to allow EK to operate Daily B777 to BER as a potential scenario.

But well done to QF. The Spirit of Australia is finally getting onto a B787-9 and QF is finally entering the world of ultra long haul twins some 20years late. Better late then never!
 
bakestar
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:48 am

This graphic may give a little idea;

[img]
[img]
fly'nhi
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:49 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 38):
Share price currently its highest since 2008, so yes the retail investors seem to be thrilled!

For those still there, that bought at the "right" time.

It's all this creative accounting that confuses the market - you know, the "underlying" profit nonsense that both QF and VA spout out every year, the occasional fleet writedown. Those not in on the tricks and games make different decisions, bail out , while those in the know hold off and are happy because they can scoop up artificially low-priced shares and sell off when they rise. Smaller retail investors without the same knowledge get shafted and market price bounces around.

Yeah, that old adage - never invest in airlines. I'm still amazed ASIC hasn't dumped on them (and frankly, VA) for this type of behaviour.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 37):
Personally I'd say it was the right decision to front load all the bad news, but reasonable minds will differ.

And the public guarantee of their debt? Inflate your losses to spook politicians (and the market) to consider risking public money to back you. Then lap it up when you're lauded for your remarkable turnaround a year later by the same big investors who were in on the game the whole time. Thanks Qantas. But fits in with their cyncial strategies like capacity wars where they respond to Vigin's increase in capacity to Perth by increasing capacity on the eastern seabord, then moan about your inflated losses. Uhuh, makes sense  

So forgive me if I'm not particularly enamoured with QF management.
 
qf002
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:02 am

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 44):
Any guesses as to the config ?

Something along the lines of 40J/21W/200Y would roughly mirror the ratios of the 744 configuration.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 45):
ncrease QF17/18 from 3 weekly to 5 weekly, increase QF95/96 from 2 weekly to 3 weekly, increase QF73/74 to daily, make QF75/76 year-round 3/4 weekly. This would require five frames, and would replace 3 747s.

After that I'm not so sure. BNE-LAX-JFK might be the obvious one, but if CASA permits it I wouldn't be surprised if QF15/16 stays with the 747 and QF27/28 is switched to the 789 operating 5-7 weekly depending on season. Either of those options would realistically require 2 frames, bringing the total to 7. With 1 in maintenance, that is the fleet accounted for. Other than YVR, I don't see much room for growth with just 8 frames.

The opportunity for growth will come from retaining S/T/U (if they decided to do that). With all your changes, you end up with 744s flying BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-JNB and SYD-HND which leaves 3-4 spare frames.

If S/T/U are retained then I would expect either SYD-SFO or SYD-LAX to remain a 744 which frees up 2 789s for expansion.

I would also have AA take over the extra weekly MEL-LAX rotations which frees up another 789 for expansion. Either that or turn those few weekly MEL-LAX services into a new MEL-DFW or MEL-SFO service.

I agree with your views on SCL, still a bit unsure about BNE-LAX.

In summary, assuming they keep S/T/U, I'd have the 744s operating SYD-SFO (6-7wk), SYD-JNB (7wk), SYD-HND (7wk) and either SYD-LAX or BNE-LAX-JFK (7wk). That then leaves one frame to act as an operational spare across the entire long haul network (and plenty of slack in the JNB and HND schedules as well).

Then the 789s would operate either SYD-LAX or BNE-LAX-JFK (7wk), SYD-SCL (6-7wk) and SYD-YVR (3-4wk) with 3 frames left over to operate one or two new routes.

I could see SYD-HKG being a possibility given the extra premium capacity I expect the 789s to have compared to the A330s.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 49):
But I think it also depends on what happens with the AU-UAE bliateral, given EK has run out of frequencies to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.

What would QF do with those aircraft if the EK partnership was to collapse though?

If you read through the slides and releases, the put a very heavy emphasis on maximising operational flexibility -- there's no reason why they couldn't buy more 789s to operate DXB feeder services, then if that partnership were to collapse then they could reallocate that capacity into other parts of the network (or to retire A330s) rather than being stuck with a bunch of huge A380s.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 49):
It could come about as a seasonal summer flight to start with - KE is even sending an A380 this year so there's obviously strong demand.

Possibly, though there are very significant economic ties which I see being critical to the success of an ICN service rather than just VFR or touristy traffic (as with YVR and potential seasonal NGO/KIX services).
 
Thomaas
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:09 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 31):
MEL-DFW - an obvious way to grow MEL;
BNE-DFW - to make up for the loss of capacity with BNE-LAX going 789

I doubt DFW makes sense from MEL or BNE. I would venture as far as saying that the 787 is a better fit for DFW.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 51):
B747-400ER Fleet (6 Aircraft)
Brisbane - Los Angeles - New York Daily
Sydney - Los Angeles/ 3x Weekly
Sydney - San Francisco/ 4x Weekly
Sydney - Johannesburg/ Daily

BNE-LAX-JFK needs the 787 because they can't sell seats on LAX-JFK, it all have to come from AU traffic. BNE-LAX is currently overcrowded with VA sending the 77W and the new AC service to YVR. The entire route just makes more sense on a 787

Quoting qf71 (Reply 51):
Think QF operating a Daily SYD-DXB-FRA to allow EK to operate Daily B777 to BER as a potential scenario.

EK is not limited by frequency but by the number of destinations in Germany it can serve (4). So unless QF would take over all the FRA flying, EK isn't adding BER. I for one think that QF could do MEL or BNE-DXB-TXL with a 787.
 
CXfirst
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:20 am

Quoting qf71 (Reply 51):
Think QF operating a Daily SYD-DXB-FRA to allow EK to operate Daily B777 to BER as a potential scenario.

Doubt EK would give up FRA completely (limited to 4 destinations). So more likely to see QF fly themselves to BER, possibly link up with Air Berlin there, with EK codeshare (if that is allowed?) to BER.

-CXfirst
 
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qf789
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:29 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 49):
In some ways, yes. But I think it also depends on what happens with the AU-UAE bliateral, given EK has run out of frequencies to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER. Should the status quo remain for some time, EK will probably need to use QF to expand its DXB flying. If QR gets the AU-Qatar bilateral expanded then I don't know that the AU-UAE one will get any more capacity.

That's not true. The UAE-Aus bilateral was increased to 137 weekly services from 1st March 2015. Since then EK has not added any more services and EY hasn't used them either, from what I can recall. They also cut a daily service from PER only 6 weeks ago which has not been reassigned to SYD/MEL or BNE
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:36 am

QF has posted this on their facebook page

http://www.facebook.com/Qantas/app_212104595551052
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:43 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
I agree with your views on SCL, still a bit unsure about BNE-LAX

IMHO one of the following will stay on the 747: BNE-LAX, SYD-SCL, SYD/MEL-LAX. The question is which one. I was betting BNE-LAX, but realistically it could be any of them and the overall calculation remains the same. My reason for going with BNE-LAX is that the other routes are less-than-daily and the smaller gauge will be a good opportunity to increase frequencies.

Let's not forget that QF15/16 was 6 weekly for years and years, and only went daily relatively recently. I know that the conventional wisdom is that there is overcapacity on BNE-LAX, and I agree that VA are flying a plane there for no other reason that they have nothing else to do with it, but with the end of the capacity war and the renewed focus on costs and capacity discipline at Qantas, if that route wasn't making money at present capacity it would be right back down to less-than-daily.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
I would also have AA take over the extra weekly MEL-LAX rotations

I highly doubt that will happen. AA only have a handful of 77Ws and the 788 lacks sufficient range (and they won't have all that many of them either come to think of it, at least not any time soon)

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
The opportunity for growth will come from retaining S/T/U (if they decided to do that). With all your changes, you end up with 744s flying BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-JNB and SYD-HND which leaves 3-4 spare frames.

If they did what I suggested it would require 5 747s (2 for BNE-LAX-JFK or SYD-SCL and 3 for SYD-HND-SYD-JNB-SYD). They could therefore retire S/T/U and operate the remaining 6 as above with one spare, or add in SYD-HKG with no spares. As I said, though, I expect that S/T/U will hang around leaving 9 747s in the fleet.

Let's ignore the exact aircraft designations for a moment, and work on a combined 747/787 fleet of 17 frames. Take out 2 for maintenance, and you have 15 frames.

5 are used for some combination of LAX/SFO/YVR
2 are used for BNE-LAX
2 are used for SYD-SCL
3 are used for HND/JNB

= 12 aircraft

That is 10 weekly new flights given a 14 hour flying time, and actually amounts to 14 weekly new flights given that the calculation of 12 frames includes YVR.

Quoting qf71 (Reply 51):
Sydney - Tokyo Haneda /Daily (2.0 Frames)
Quoting qf71 (Reply 51):
Sydney - Santiago /Daily (2.0 Frames) - retimed with afternoon departure ex SYD

These could be flown with 3 frames:

SYD-HND 21:00-06:00
HND-SYD 21:00-06:00
SYD-SCL 13:00-11:00
SCL-SYD 13:00-17:00

This would have the aircraft that flies SYD-HND on Monday back in SYD to fly to HND again on Thursday. Thus, Monday-Thursday-Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Friday(-Monday) = 3 frames

(all times are very rough)

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 55):
I for one think that QF could do MEL or BNE-DXB-TXL with a 787.

Queue the old debate about the Australia-Germany bilateral 

The bilateral limits Australian carriers to just Frankfurt, but this has been supplemented by a new Memorandum. The problem is that nobody on ANet seems to have any idea what it says.
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tortugamon
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:49 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
Qantas got a screaming deal on the 787s (rumors were in the $50 million range).

What a load a horse s#!t. Honestly. Air India ordered before QF and took delivery of very early aircraft (5 aircraft in the first 30) and their early 787s cost $113+ million. We are talking about 2017 deliveries for QF not 2011 deliveries for AI of odd one-off-frames.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/india...-boeing-787-including-engines.html

By 2017/2018 the costs to produce a 787 are expected to reach their all time low. After price escalations for inflation I would be shocked if profits were not significant for QF deliveries. I also do believe QF got a great deal but your number is ridiculous.

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 28):

Can the 789 make SYD-DXB non-stop?

MEL-LAX (operated by UA 789) is 440nm further than SYD-DXB.

tortugamon
 
ZuluAlpha
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:20 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 55):
I for one think that QF could do MEL or BNE-DXB-TXL with a 787.

And Alan Joyce in the past has been quoted to say he would like to fly into TXL and I'm sure EK would love it if he did !
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qfvhoqa
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:23 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
Something along the lines of 40J/21W/200Y would roughly mirror the ratios of the 744 configuration.

According to Ben Sandilands, Joyce stated that the 789 seat count would be 250 seats. It's going to be a rather premium heavy configuration.
119-136 seats fit between doors 3 & 4 on other carriers' 789s and NH has 26 staggered J seats between doors 1 & 2. So a QF config of 40J/21W/200Y would be about right.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
What would QF do with those aircraft if the EK partnership was to collapse though?

It seems to be a moot point:

Quoting qf789 (Reply 57):
The UAE-Aus bilateral was increased to 137 weekly services from 1st March 2015.
Quoting qf002 (Reply 54):
Possibly, though there are very significant economic ties which I see being critical to the success of an ICN service rather than just VFR or touristy traffic (as with YVR and potential seasonal NGO/KIX services).

For regular service QF would need more than just VFR & leisure traffic. But as we saw with SYD-YVR, what may have begun as a seasonal leisure flight has the potential to grow from there.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 60):
Air India ordered before QF and took delivery of very early aircraft

While I think $50m is far too low, QF's agreement was far larger than AI's given there were 45 orders, 20 options & 50 purchase rights.
 
karadion
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:32 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 60):

I agree. There's absolutely no way that Boeing would do a $90 million deferred production cost on each delivery with the 787-9. That amounts to $720 million which would need 36 787's from other customers w/ a cash positive of $20 million or more to "break even". Maybe a $5 million deferred production cost for the first two or three but not anymore than that. Especially we're now at around $15 million deferred production cost with the 787-9 which will be well into cash positive territory comes 2017.

ANA pays a significantly lower amount to Air India as well which they have far more orders on the book still so the biggest cost for ANA in terms of the 787 will be from the 787-10 family which they ordered recently.
 
ZKCIF
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:49 am

Could we get any insight into the fate of the 8 options for A380 in this sunnier context?
Is there any specific data available concerning the profitability/loss of the current A380 routes?
Thanks.
 
JayJ
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:36 am

I know I am dreaming, but it would be good to see the QF 787 bring back the retro colours! It was also be awesome to see one of the 747-400ERs in a Retro Roo livery.
 
Sydscott
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:38 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 49):
I would think JQd would get them first, being the most profitable member of the JQ group. It would be useful for JQ's longer domestic flights like those to PER/DRW/CNS. I can see the A320s flying to DPS replaced by A320neo too.

I actually think there are competing priorities:

- JQ could definitely use them to DPS. The issue is what then to do with the 787's. And I actually have a suggestion for that;
- 3K could definitely use them to start SIN - Australia and more SIN - North Asia routes.
- GK could use them to start some more Southerly Asian routes.

If JQ did decide to deploy NEO's to replace say the 788 on some of their leisure routes then a really interesting thing they could do, subject to JAL, would be to transfer some up to GK and use them to fly to Japan - Hawaii.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 49):
JQ really missed an opportunity by allowing TZ onto OOL-SIN first. OOL is strong for JQ and could have kept TZ out of the market for a while (like MEL-SIN).

I totally agree with this! In fact, I'd be really interested to see JQ take TZ on on the SIN route and use the position they have at OOL.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 55):
I doubt DFW makes sense from MEL or BNE. I would venture as far as saying that the 787 is a better fit for DFW.

QF have indicated MEL-DFW makes sense. I think it's inevitable as DFW is a hub, the traffic growth on SYD-DFW is strong and it would allow QF to grow MEL - US services in a unique way. It wouldn't start out as a daily route and, as I've said before, you could even route it via AKL if it helped, but it is inevitable.
 
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qfvhoqa
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:51 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
JQ could definitely use them to DPS.

PER/ADL/CNS-DPS I agree with you. MEL/SYD/BNE-DPS I'm not so sure. While the lower capacity plane will be easier to fill, it won't really restrict capacity in the market to raise fares. XT will just keep bringing additional capacity into the market, especially if JQ retreats from 788s to DPS. If TT gets some 737MAX flying at TT crew rates, their costs will be lower than JQ with A320neo.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
3K could definitely use them to start SIN - Australia and more SIN - North Asia routes.

3K didn't do very well with A330s, though I'm not sure why. I doubt the 787 will magically bring 3K riches. Plus with TZ sitting on more 787s they are already ahead of 3K in these markets. In any case, 3K could already be flying SIN-MEL but it's run by JQ instead.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
GK could use them to start some more Southerly Asian routes.

If you'r talking about Japan-SE Asia, the various long haul Air Asia franchises all have Japan in their sights. By the time Jetstar Group gets A320neo it could be too late.
 
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allrite
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:53 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
3K could definitely use them to start SIN - Australia and more SIN - North Asia routes.

They tried that before with the A330s and weren't successful. There may be some operational differences now and Jetstar Japan now exists for feed but they would be going up against a more entrenched Scoot and AirAsiaX. I don't think Jetstar can compete on price alone. And competition from full service carriers in the region makes it difficult to compete in the "we're better than Tiger but not as expensive as Qantas" market.

Flights out of Japan however have greater potential, especially as they already have a 787 parent there.
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qf002
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:18 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 59):
if that route wasn't making money at present capacity it would be right back down to less-than-daily.

I have no doubt that BNE-LAX is profitable -- the question is whether is would be more profitable for QF to sacrifice some capacity in order to significantly reduce their operating costs (also bearing in mind that the LAX-JFK sector represents almost a third of the total journey that the aircraft makes out of BNE).

As I said, I'm not convinced either way just yet. I do think we are in agreement though that QF 744s will remain a regular feature at LAX beyond these initial 8 new deliveries, and of course things aren't set in stone once the 789s finally arrive. They'll have far more flexibility to move capacity around in future than they do today.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 59):
I highly doubt that will happen. AA only have a handful of 77Ws and the 788 lacks sufficient range (and they won't have all that many of them either come to think of it, at least not any time soon)

I'm thinking in the same timeframe as QF's 789s will start arriving, ie 2017-19, by which time AA will be flying 789s and A350s.

My underlying point was that there are other options to explore rather than just doing a one-for-one swap on existing routes and adding a frequency or two here or there. My preference would be to see a new route out of MEL, but AA could also play a role if they have success with LAX-SYD (and LAX-AKL next year, hopefully).

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 62):
According to Ben Sandilands, Joyce stated that the 789 seat count would be 250 seats. It's going to be a rather premium heavy configuration.

A ~250 seat configuration would basically confirm the inclusion of W as well.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 62):
For regular service QF would need more than just VFR & leisure traffic. But as we saw with SYD-YVR, what may have begun as a seasonal leisure flight has the potential to grow from there.

I would be happy either way! ICN is such a glaring hole in their regional network.

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 64):
Could we get any insight into the fate of the 8 options for A380 in this sunnier context?

The A380s don't even appear to be on their radar anymore. AJ's remarks this morning strongly implied that they see further 787s replacing the 744ERs when the time comes, as well as the A330 fleet.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
- 3K could definitely use them to start SIN - Australia and more SIN - North Asia routes.

Tried and failed (using A330s).

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 66):
would be to transfer some up to GK and use them to fly to Japan - Hawaii.

But this does seem like a logical progression for GK if JL is happy for it to happen.
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:29 am

Some divergent opinion from Fairfax:

Positive to the point of gushing (minus the numbers analysis): http://www.theage.com.au/business/co...yces-head-now-20150820-gj3j9d.html

Sceptical downer on the day (with some pretty solid number crunching): http://www.theage.com.au/business/av...it-turnaround-20150820-gj3h7u.html
 
Sydscott
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:51 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 67):
3K didn't do very well with A330s, though I'm not sure why. I doubt the 787 will magically bring 3K riches. Plus with TZ sitting on more 787s they are already ahead of 3K in these markets. In any case, 3K could already be flying SIN-MEL but it's run by JQ instead.
Quoting allrite (Reply 68):
They tried that before with the A330s and weren't successful. There may be some operational differences now and Jetstar Japan now exists for feed but they would be going up against a more entrenched Scoot and AirAsiaX. I don't think Jetstar can compete on price alone. And competition from full service carriers in the region makes it difficult to compete in the "we're better than Tiger but not as expensive as Qantas" market.
Quoting qf002 (Reply 69):
Tried and failed (using A330s).

I was meaning they use the A320NEO not the 787 and I'm aware the A330 was used in a limited way out of SIN and failed miserably. I'm also aware the A330 out of SIN was used to PEK and AKL, both routes where there was nothing really at the other end to connect to at the time and both where there were strong incumbents with low costs already in the market. So of course it failed. But I'm not advocating for those routes, or that operation, to be tried again.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 67):
If you'r talking about Japan-SE Asia, the various long haul Air Asia franchises all have Japan in their sights. By the time Jetstar Group gets A320neo it could be too late.

I'm not necessarily talking about Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia or Thailand where AirAsia is strong. There is opportunity in Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Burma, Laos etc where a NEO's costs for GK would be useful, where JAL isn't necessarily strong and where AirAsia and other LCC's aren't present in the market. There is also the potential for 3K to do SIN-OKA, SIN-ADL and SIN-CNS with the A320NEO where, again, there are good connections on both end and opportunity to connect in with the QF group and allies along with other Jetstar franchises and services.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 69):
As I said, I'm not convinced either way just yet. I do think we are in agreement though that QF 744s will remain a regular feature at LAX beyond these initial 8 new deliveries, and of course things aren't set in stone once the 789s finally arrive.

I don't necessarily agree with that. It depends on what expansion QF chooses to do really because if you want to get 744's out of the system and increase city pairs, taking the 744 off of BNE-LAX-JFK, removing the 744 from the 2nd daily SYD-LAX and dropping the additional MEL-LAX services while starting 789 service on the first 2 along with MEL-DFW to me seems a sensible way to expand frequency on Australia - US, increase city pairs and further hub up DFW. That means the US operation at LAX, DFW and SFO is all A380 and 789. But as you say things aren't set in stone.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 69):
Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 62):
For regular service QF would need more than just VFR & leisure traffic. But as we saw with SYD-YVR, what may have begun as a seasonal leisure flight has the potential to grow from there.

I would be happy either way! ICN is such a glaring hole in their regional network.

I agree but I can't see them returning yet. QF has the codeshare with Asiana to cover it in any case so would have a good idea of what sort of traffic is being carried and what sort of yield is available.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:14 am

How many A380s do they have on order? I mean firm+options. Will they take them all?
 
Gemuser
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:31 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 72):
How many A380s do they have on order? I mean firm+options

8 + 4 options

Quoting United Airline (Reply 72):
Will they take them all?

Who the H**L knows!
My GUESS is that at least 4 will be taken, possibly the whole eight. It depends on traffic growth on the main trunk routes and overall and how many routes the B789 stimulates traffic enough to be replaced by A380s. Of course they could be A380NEO's   

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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:58 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 73):
My GUESS is that at least 4 will be taken, possibly the whole eight. It depends on traffic growth on the main trunk routes and overall and how many routes the B789 stimulates traffic enough to be replaced by A380s. Of course they could be A380NEO's

My two cents is zero will be taken. I think QF will be more interested in the new 777 variants or derivates of the A350 if they need heavier lift than the 787-9's. If anything an A380NEO might be interesting to replace the current A380's with to allow for greater range and better fuel burn.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:14 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 60):
What a load a horse s#!t. Honestly. Air India ordered before QF and took delivery of very early aircraft (5 aircraft in the first 30) and their early 787s cost $113+ million. We are talking about 2017 deliveries for QF not 2011 deliveries for AI of odd one-off-frames. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/india...oeing-787-including-engines.htmlBy 2017/2018 the costs to produce a 787 are expected to reach their all time low. After price escalations for inflation I would be shocked if profits were not significant for QF deliveries. I also do believe QF got a great deal but your number is ridiculous.

QF did get around ~$300m from Boeing for the initial delays, so I guess this effectively reduces the $/per frame. Although $50m (even factoring in compensation) seems a tad low.
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Flyingsottsman
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:20 am

Great news for QF, and now most certain to see the 787 in QF colours now. I just hope now that there will be more flights opened up from MEL/BNE/PER/ and even Adelaide instead of running everything into and out of SYD.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:29 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 73):
My GUESS is that at least 4 will be taken, possibly the whole eight. It depends on traffic growth on the main trunk routes and overall and how many routes the B789 stimulates traffic enough to be replaced by A380s. Of course they could be A380NEO's
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 74):
My two cents is zero will be taken. I think QF will be more interested in the new 777 variants or derivates of the A350 if they need heavier lift than the 787-9's. If anything an

IMO I don't see QF taking anymore A380 in its current form however when the A380NEO comes to life it could be a replacement for the current A380's
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:50 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Here she is!

Great pic, the B789 looks very well proportioned.

It will be very interesting to see the seat map for this bird. The QF B744 has 350-370 seats and United, which also flies Oz-USA, have "only" 252 seats in their brand new B789. If QF wants to use the B789 on TransPacific flights they will lose 100 seats per flight compared to the B744 if 250-ish seats is all you can have to make it nonstop.

Is it likely that QF will have two seat configs for their B789 - one TPAC with 250-270 seats and one Asia with 300-350 seats?
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:56 am

This could have been such a nice aircraft had the airlines selected 8 abreast seating as opposed to stuffing them with 3-3-3.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:59 am

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 78):
Is it likely that QF will have two seat configs for their B789 - one TPAC with 250-270 seats and one Asia with 300-350 seats?

Unlikely, there will probably only be 1 config with the same product. A fleet of 8 doesn't give you a great deal of operational flexibility, so you can't really afford to have 2 different configs for different routes.
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Gemuser
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:00 am

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 78):
If QF wants to use the B789 on TransPacific flights they will lose 100 seats per flight compared to the B744 if 250-ish seats is all you can have to make it nonstop.

Generally the B789 will not be used on EXISTING Trans Pac routes currently operated by A380/B744, so the lesser capacity is irrelevant. Hopefully they will be used to open NEW and reopen dropped routes.

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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:05 am

Thought I mention this though I wouldn't make too much of it. AJ had an interview with Ross Greenwood this afternoon.

Here's the podcast

http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/123656

Around the 10min30sec mark RG asked AJ about non-stop East coast-JFK flights. Though the 789 doesn't have the range he did mention the 777-8X could potentially do it and QF engineers are working with Boeing.

Also at the 7min mark he had a whack at VA,EY,SQ & NZ - just letting them know that QF made more profit than the 4 combined.
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:14 am

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qf002
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:15 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 71):
was meaning they use the A320NEO not the 787 and I'm aware the A330 was used in a limited way out of SIN and failed miserably.

Ah, that makes far more sense! Is the NEO really going to be capable of reaching SIN-SYD/MEL/BNE though?

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 71):
I don't necessarily agree with that.

To be clear, I meant that I think RyanairGuru and myself are on the same basic page re LAX -- I'm sure there are many other opinions out there!  
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 71):
It depends on what expansion QF chooses to do really because if you want to get 744's out of the system and increase city pairs, taking the 744 off of BNE-LAX-JFK, removing the 744 from the 2nd daily SYD-LAX and dropping the additional MEL-LAX services while starting 789 service on the first 2 along with MEL-DFW to me seems a sensible way to expand frequency on Australia - US, increase city pairs and further hub up DFW.

I'm not quite sure I understand what the link between BNE-LAX and MEL-DFW is? You can still operate BNE-LAX with a 744 while also adding MEL-DFW with a 789 with the same end result as far as frequencies/city pairs go.

They are only getting 8 frames initially -- add SYD-SFO to SYD-LAX, BNE-LAX and MEL-DFW and that's the whole fleet gone without even looking at SCL or YVR which are routes that would actually benefit from the capacity and capability of these new aircraft.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 74):
My two cents is zero will be taken.

Agree 100% -- it would go against everything that QF is saying.

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 78):
Is it likely that QF will have two seat configs for their B789 - one TPAC with 250-270 seats and one Asia with 300-350 seats?

Eventually, but not for at least another 7-8 years (ie when they come to replace the A330s).

Quoting gemuser (Reply 81):
Generally the B789 will not be used on EXISTING Trans Pac routes currently operated by A380/B744, so the lesser capacity is irrelevant. Hopefully they will be used to open NEW and reopen dropped routes.

These aircraft are replacements for 744s, so they will predominantly operate on existing 744 routes with only very minor expansion (one or two routes) planned in the initial phase.
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:54 am

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 41):

Are they?

If capacity is the issue, then frequency becomes your friend. Such as:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 45):
Increase QF17/18 from 3 weekly to 5 weekly, increase QF95/96 from 2 weekly to 3 weekly, increase QF73/74 to daily, make QF75/76 year-round 3/4 weekly. This would require five frames, and would replace 3 747s.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 59):
Queue the old debate about the Australia-Germany bilateral 

The bilateral limits Australian carriers to just Frankfurt, but this has been supplemented by a new Memorandum. The problem is that nobody on ANet seems to have any idea what it says.

An Australian carrier can serve Düsseldorf or Cologne, Frankfurt/M., Hamburg and Munich and to an additional point in lieu of one of the named points. This is from 1996 so unless you're referencing another document, this is it:

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/1996/23.html
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:05 am

When are the A380s delayed till? I believe they will take them all if you ask me

Any chance of resuming SIN-LHR, HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR?
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:09 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 17):
Congrats to QF on a big profit and finally a 787-9 order.

Congrats to all involved parties are due for sure. Nice to see QF back on track financially.  
 
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qf789
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:18 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 86):
Any chance of resuming SIN-LHR, HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR?

Not likely, under the QF/EK agreement all flights to Europe are to go through DXB
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smi0006
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:39 am

I'd say more will be ordered same time next year and the following if the results continue. Sustainability is key. The fleet is stretched these 8 are sufficient to remove the current fleet stress, and have a worthwhile fleet size. 12-24months is a long time in aviation.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:59 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 89):
I'd say more will be ordered same time next year and the following if the results continue. Sustainability is key. The fleet is stretched these 8 are sufficient to remove the current fleet stress, and have a worthwhile fleet size. 12-24months is a long time in aviation.

I would say that is what they will probably do. The 15 options are now between 2020 and 2025 and the 30 purchase rights between 2017 and 2025

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81819
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 86):
When are the A380s delayed till? I believe they will take them all if you ask me. Any chance of resuming SIN-LHR, HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR?

I think QANTAS will eventually commit to the 777 making the A380 the odd child in the fleet. Where the 787 & 777 give QANTAS operational flexibility, the A380 does not!

Strategically the 777 may be the better option going forward!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:04 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
There is probably also an element of 'speak now or forever hold your peace'. Qantas got a screaming deal on the 787s (rumors were in the $50 million range). That is a minuscule amount compared to what they would be on the hook for if they ordered the 787 or A350 today. Their costs on the long term would therefore be significantly higher if they let these options slip.

If Qantas was seriously getting 787-9s for the same price as a 737-900 there would have been no reason for them to not take their planes on the original delivery schedule regardless of how poor their financials and credit rating were.


Boeing initially priced the 787 so low in order to try and break the cycle of heavy discounting and sources I consider reliable gave the original discount schedule to be around 25% (compared to the industry norm of 35-40%) for early 787 orders.

ANA is said to have received a 50% discount to launch the 787 program and I personally find that skeptical because of the above, but even if they did get half-off, that would have been $75 million on average.

And we think QF received a deal a third better than that in 2015? Nope.

We'll get a better idea of what they actually paid when they announce their CAPEX and I'm confident it's not going to be a couple hundred million.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 75):
QF did get around ~$300m from Boeing for the initial delays, so I guess this effectively reduces the $/per frame. Although $50m (even factoring in compensation) seems a tad low.

And QF cancelled their order in favor of options and purchase rights. So while I am sure QF received a good deal, it was based on at best 2011 market rates, when the average sales price of a 787-9 was north of $110 million.

[Edited 2015-08-20 05:59:34]
 
Gemuser
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:27 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 86):
Any chance of resuming SIN-LHR, HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR?

In aviation, never say never but it is most unlikely in the near/medium future. There is no need to do so. Just ask yourself "Why did QF operate SIN-LHR, HKG-LHR & BKK-LHR?" answer: to get from Australia to Europe (UK). Those route only existed to enable Australia-Europe, no other reason (for QF). Now that enabling is done by DXB so those routes are redundant. Unless "something" happens to make DXB less attractive than it is any other routing seems very unlikely.

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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:50 pm

As a side note QANTAS's international operations had a $195 million gain from the write down of aircraft assets in the 2014 financial year.

Without this gain international operations would have recorded a profit in the region of $80 million. This part of the airline still has a away to go before it is out of the woods!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...nto-the-black-20150819-gj2osd.html

I think we have to remember, not only has the capacity war between QANTAS and Virgin ended, the capacity war between QANTAS and the rest of the Asian carriers has currently stalled. Things could well change once Scoot has more 787′s, AirAsia X starts targeting the Australian market again (which they recently stated they will) and the likes of Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific start taking A350′s into their fleet.

The current lull probably has more to do with the battle lines being re-drawn!

In the short term QANTAS International should do okay. Over the longer term, it still has some fierce competition to deal with!

[Edited 2015-08-20 05:51:41]
 
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qf2220
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:08 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 94):

I think you might have misunderstood that number. This is the depreciation that they no longer charge on aircraft as they wrote the value down last year. If they didn't have the impairment last year, they would have had a net 195 of it this year. I wouldn't see it reducing the international profit to just 80, its not in any way a gain of anything. Its an expense that was pulled forward to last year.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:20 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
Technically yes, the orders will be in USD. Anything that QF purchases now, though, will be more expensive than 2 years ago

I would expect that QF would have had a FX contract in place to protect them against unfavourable changes in the AUSD-USD currency conversion rate.
 
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:20 pm

Good that Qantas finally confirmed the order for the 8 x 787-900. I am a little surprised at how small the order is, I would have expected 20 with a longer lead time between deliveries.

I would think that less than daily routes would swap from the 747 to the 787 to increase the service.

As the 787 was replacing some 747s I would have expected some premium economy to be available, which has now been confirmed, so 9 across in economy and 7 across in premium economy.

A 787 flying either BNE-DXB or PER-DXB would be good but unless the route is making a lot of money then I don't see the extension to Germany really being viable.

The order for 8 is small but I guess Qantas are taking it slowly and depending on how well the economy and the fuel cost Qantas can then decide when to retire the 747s.
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:26 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 82):
Quoting qf789 (Reply 82):
VA,EY,SQ & NZ - just letting them know that QF made more profit than the 4 combined.

This is truly an amazing effort and turnaround by all at QF. I too have heard that in 10 years time, QF management envisage the QF international fleet comprising of B777-9/8 & B789's. The A380's will still be flying into slot constrained airports from Sydney & Melbourne.

Fun time ahead and a great result!

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allrite
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RE: Qantas Confirm 787-9 + $900 Million Profit

Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 94):
Things could well change once Scoot has more 787′s, AirAsia X starts targeting the Australian market again (which they recently stated they will) and the likes of Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific start taking A350′s into their fleet.

Actually, assuming that AirAsia and Scoot don't expand franchised medium/long haul bases outside of SE Asia I think other airlines in the region stand to lose more than Qantas. Qantas' services to SE Asia are already fairly limited, mostly out of Sydney, and already competing against the LCCs. So you would expect that they are attracting enough passengers who don't want to fly an LCC and prefer them against the local full service carriers (eg SQ, TG, MH, etc).

Unlike Qantas it's often the regional carriers that serve non-Eastern seaboard cities and these would have to be more under threat by the expanding LCCs. Even then, AirAsiaX has already struggled.

And if the LCCs start flying to Europe as they say they will, there are plenty of carriers already cheaper than Qantas on the Kangaroo Route.

Qantas' deals with the Chinese airlines should also provide a buffer.

My assumptions may be wrong and Qantas International will still face non negligible threats from competitor airlines, but I think Qantas has already moved many of its eggs out of the SE Asian basket.
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