Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
chiki
Topic Author
Posts: 367
Joined: Sat Apr 13, 2013 4:32 pm

Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:14 pm

An interesting article from Arabian Aerospace, Emirates 777 have done 859,000 flights to date. Analyst Saj Ahmad predicts another order of 150.

Ahmad added: “Critically, the 777X was born directly out of Emirates' desire for a new fuel efficient update and evolution of a jet that has been the backbone of its operations.
“In turn, the $75bn-plus order for 150 Boeing 777X jets will work to replace the existing 777 fleet starting from next decade - it's not out of the realm that Emirates will require at least another 150 more 777-8 and 777-9 jets for expansion - especially as these will also likely replace the A380 fleet which at present, looks unlikely to benefit from any major engine or wing changes to remain competitive against the 777X family.”
- See more at: http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/emi...-flights.html#sthash.DV1aedCi.dpuf
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19115
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:21 pm

Ah, Saj Ahmad. I wouldn't take anything he says seriously.   

He's the biggest Boeing fan boy and A380-hater on the Internet. There's no way EK will replace A380s with 777s.   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
IslandRob
Posts: 623
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:04 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:24 pm

Quoting chiki (Thread starter):
"- it's not out of the realm that Emirates will require at least another 150 more 777-8 and 777-9 jets for expansion - especially as these will also likely replace the A380 fleet which at present, looks unlikely to benefit from any major engine or wing changes to remain competitive against the 777X family.”

Wow! Is this source credible? Is EK now seriously considering phasing out the A380, or is this just a move to put more pressure on Airbus? -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19115
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:32 pm

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 2):
Wow! Is this source credible?

No.   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
al2637
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:11 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:49 pm

I just got off an EK 777. Most uncomfortable aircraft I've ever flow. 10 abreast is a killer. (and I know they're not the only ones doing it, but first time I've been subjected to it)
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting chiki (Thread starter):
In turn, the $75bn-plus order for 150 Boeing 777X jets will work to replace the existing 777 fleet starting from next decade - it's not out of the realm that Emirates will require at least another 150 more 777-8 and 777-9 jets for expansion

I think we can safely assume that the 777-8 and -9 will get many more orders from EK as the years progress, but an additional 150?!
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6987
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting al2637 (Reply 4):
I just got off an EK 777. Most uncomfortable aircraft I've ever flow.

Obviously you haven't flown on many different aircraft then  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:29 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 5):
I think we can safely assume that the 777-8 and -9 will get many more orders from EK as the years progress, but an additional 150?!

The 150 they have on order is really just for 777 replacement and not really for growth. Meanwhile they are set to double in size in less than 7 years. I don't think another 150 is outrageous. STC mentioned a fleet of over 200 A380s.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2646
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:42 pm

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 2):
Wow! Is this source credible? Is EK now seriously considering phasing out the A380, or is this just a move to put more pressure on Airbus? -ir

EK and Sir Tim Clark's language and actions in public (When's the A380neo coming out? Are you working on that A380neo yet? We'll buy them if you make them!) suggest they're not going to replace the A380 with the 779. The 779 does exactly what EK wants, but it doesn't do the A380's job. There's a reason they have such big orders for the two is because they need them: they both suit EK's business model. The A380 doesn't carry as much cargo and is in some cases too big, the 777X does have cargo but not the capacity that EK makes use of.
 
2175301
Posts: 1866
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:44 pm

Hmmm... I can see the possibility of an additional 150 777Xs if there is no A380neo and the A380 line is shut down. We don't yet really know what will happen with the A380 as all I can tell is that the business case is not super obvious for an A380neo, and has been tougher to develop than Airbus initially estimated.

So, While I am not sure how credible the source is; I think the speculation is reasonable if there is no A380neo as was stated as part of the assumptions quoted above.

Have a great day,
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5631
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:23 pm

If Airbus does not do the A380NEO then I think it likely that EK will replace the A380's with 779's, as that will then be the largest and most efficient per seat airliner available. I do not see the business case for Airbus to do the A380NEO; and they have said that they will not do it for just one customer. Even then, from what I have read, the A380NEO will have a hard time beating the 779's economics. We will see.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
AngMoh
Posts: 1051
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:03 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:56 pm

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 9):

Hmmm... I can see the possibility of an additional 150 777Xs if there is no A380neo and the A380 line is shut down. We don't yet really know what will happen with the A380 as all I can tell is that the business case is not super obvious for an A380neo, and has been tougher to develop than Airbus initially estimated.

It's all a matter of time. You release an A380NEO today and the efficiency jump will not justify the investment. You do it in 2030 and it is easy to justify as long as EK has not walked away to another option. So it is just a matter of timing which will be somewhere in between.

It will happen - just a matter of when an engine is available that justifies the investment. And we know RR has stuff coming up which is a generation beyond Trent XWB and GE9X which is still a bit away but not completely out of the question.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 9):
I can see the possibility of an additional 150 777Xs if there is no A380neo and the A380 line is shut down.
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
If Airbus does not do the A380NEO then I think it likely that EK will replace the A380's with 779's
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
Even then, from what I have read, the A380NEO will have a hard time beating the 779's economics. We will see.

Kind of a slippery slope topic, but I'll weigh in.

Without EK, the A380/A380neo has no business case, period. EK will account for 65% of all A380ceos, and that alone is assuming Amedeo, Transaero and Virgin accept theirs, which is growing increasingly unlikely.

The only other carrier that could probably order the A380neo in bulk is SQ, but spending billions on development of a VLA that's only going to sell to a single digit amount of airlines isn't really worth the trouble, nor is it fiscally smart.

True, there are some routes that only an A380 can do, and EK knows this. It's a great vehicle for premium products and services, honestly has good economics, and is comfortable, but the 777-9 is quickly becoming the next big thing (literally and figuratively) and if Airbus doesn't make a move quickly, the integrity of the A380 will be at stake. I'm not going to say that A380 is out of time, or irrelevant, but I have to agree. If no A380neo is launched, A380s at EK will be replaced with the 777-9, and perhaps 150 may be a conservative number for what they'll need.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 7):
The 150 they have on order is really just for 777 replacement and not really for growth. Meanwhile they are set to double in size in less than 7 years. I don't think another 150 is outrageous. STC mentioned a fleet of over 200 A380s.

205, to be exact. But I agree, now that it's put that way.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
Lentini2001
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2006 4:53 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:52 am

For a thick person like me...

How does the Emirates order book work?

They say they have ordered 150 planes however they are not buying them outright? A third party buys some (all?) and then Emirates leases them for 10 / 15 years or have I got that wrong?

So this middle company stumps up all the billions or like I say have I got this wrong?
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:32 am

Quoting chiki (Thread starter):
Analyst Saj Ahmad

"Analyst".   

Anyone who has laughed their way through the misinformation and fantasies on Fleetbuzz will enjoy that one!
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3893
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:14 am

Quoting PM (Reply 14):
"Analyst".   

Anyone who has laughed their way through the misinformation and fantasies on Fleetbuzz will enjoy that one!

I guess so. A funny piece to read though.  
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:18 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 7):
The 150 they have on order is really just for 777 replacement and not really for growth. Meanwhile they are set to double in size in less than 7 years. I don't think another 150 is outrageous. STC mentioned a fleet of over 200 A380s.

On a-net we seem to take CEOs word as gospel, so when Tim Clark says he will order another 200 A380s if they provide a new engine, seems that you have your growth right there. Taking into account the 777X orders for EK are into the 2030s it seems they are looking at growth with the A380 and not the 777X.   

In all seriousness for some of their routes they cannot replace the A380. They will need the A380 (8 flights per day to London soon) and with the airport restrictions on both sides unless they downgrade the capacity it will need the A380. We like to think EK has Airbus over the fire A380, yet with their growth and future plans there isn't a lot of choices for EK to take. They can grow with the A380 or just consolidate with the 777.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 12):
Kind of a slippery slope topic, but I'll weigh in.

Without EK, the A380/A380neo has no business case, period. EK will account for 65% of all A380ceos, and that alone is assuming Amedeo, Transaero and Virgin accept theirs, which is growing increasingly unlikely.

The only other carrier that could probably order the A380neo in bulk is SQ, but spending billions on development of a VLA that's only going to sell to a single digit amount of airlines isn't really worth the trouble, nor is it fiscally smart.

True, there are some routes that only an A380 can do, and EK knows this. It's a great vehicle for premium products and services, honestly has good economics, and is comfortable, but the 777-9 is quickly becoming the next big thing (literally and figuratively) and if Airbus doesn't make a move quickly, the integrity of the A380 will be at stake. I'm not going to say that A380 is out of time, or irrelevant, but I have to agree. If no A380neo is launched, A380s at EK will be replaced with the 777-9, and perhaps 150 may be a conservative number for what they'll need.

If the A380 is in a precarious situation without EK the 777X is in a similar situation. You can just add the ME3 to the 777X instead of EK for the A380. Which is neither here or there as I don't believe the airlines in question will fold unexpectedly so both programs will continue on their own way.

As above, how do you suggest EK replace the 720 premium seats (soon to be) on their A380s per day to London? Add another 6 77W flights? Which slots? I am not thinking of LHR but DXB slots.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:46 am

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
On a-net we seem to take CEOs word as gospel, so when Tim Clark says he will order another 200 A380s if they provide a new engine, seems that you have your growth right there. Taking into account the 777X orders for EK are into the 2030s it seems they are looking at growth with the A380 and not the 777X.

Well, the 200 A380s wíll be spread over about a decade too, 20 A380s per year sounds possible. Isn't that the amount of A380s EK will be taking per year from 2018 on or so? Most orders for other airlines will be fulfilled then.

I think, EK ideally will want to grow with both A380s and 777X's, and don't forget the 78X/A359s order we eagerly anticipate at the Dubai airshow  
Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
In all seriousness for some of their routes they cannot replace the A380. They will need the A380 (8 flights per day to London soon) and with the airport restrictions on both sides unless they downgrade the capacity it will need the A380.

Absolutely. Even without the neo, EK will continue to order the A380. But I believe without the neo, EK will not expand their A380 fleet much further, continue the A380 on slot restricted airports but expand frequencies with 777X where the slot restrictions aren't too much of a problem.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
Which slots? I am not thinking of LHR but DXB slots

Well, there's also JXB, it should be able to cope with even EK's growth plans  
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
User avatar
HALtheAI
Posts: 296
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:30 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:36 am

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
In all seriousness for some of their routes they cannot replace the A380. They will need the A380 (8 flights per day to London soon) and with the airport restrictions on both sides unless they downgrade the capacity it will need the A380. We like to think EK has Airbus over the fire A380, yet with their growth and future plans there isn't a lot of choices for EK to take. They can grow with the A380 or just consolidate with the 777.

Their current A380s won't just go poof if EK doesn't order more. Half their existing order have yet to be delivered. Assuming they extend the leases to 15 years like Clark has talked about, EK would still have 82 A380s in their fleet on January 1st 2030.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
As above, how do you suggest EK replace the 720 premium seats (soon to be) on their A380s per day to London? Add another 6 77W flights? Which slots? I am not thinking of LHR but DXB slots.

That's why EK is having a whole new airport being built for them. And by the time EK's A380s start to be retired en masse, even LHR might have another runway.
 
User avatar
AA777223
Posts: 1083
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2006 6:12 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:21 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Well, there's also JXB, it should be able to cope with even EK's growth plans  

Are you referring to DWC?
A318/19/20/21, A300, A332/3, A343/6, A388, L1011, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80, B722, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9, B743/4/4M, B752/3, B762/3/4, B772/E/W, B788/9, F-100, CRJ-200/700/900, ERJ-135/145/175/190, DH-8, ATR-72, DO-328, BAE-146
 
VC10er
Posts: 4265
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 6:25 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:56 pm

I am shocked nobody has mentioned a 747-8 order!!!

Note: I am not making that proposal. It's just that it always seems to come up.
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3328
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:13 pm

Wow, now we know why Boeing listened to the ME3 instead of everyone else when it came to designing the 777X. If they stepped up to the plate like the ME3 stated they would in orders, then Boeing would have given them more consideration in the design specs.

Here I was thinking who is going to buy the 777-9 in mass, now I know.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting AA777223 (Reply 19):

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Well, there's also JXB, it should be able to cope with even EK's growth plans  

Are you referring to DWC?

err, yes, sorry total mix up in my brain. Thanks for the correction!   
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13240
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:05 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 18):
That's why EK is having a whole new airport being built for them. And by the time EK's A380s start to be retired en masse, even LHR might have another runway.

LHR having another runway by 2030? I am not so sure.....

And DWC won't help against crowding airspace, it is already pretty busy around there.

Quoting al2637 (Reply 4):
Most uncomfortable aircraft I've ever flow. 10 abreast is a killer.

Try a 9-abreast A330 for comparison, compared to that a 10 abreast 777 is quite roomy. I don't like it either, but it is not that terrible. And the 777x will offer a little more room.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
liftsifter
Posts: 495
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:25 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:56 pm

Yes, EK, the one who just introduced a 2-class, high capacity (almost double that of a 777), wants to phase out their extremely popular fleet of A380s.......... No. As the second poster states, this is not a reliable statement at all.
A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B736 B737 B738 B744 B763 B77L B77E B77W B788 E190
 
Egerton
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:50 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:33 pm

I have set out on A.net my many concerns on the 777-9 and -8 family seeing the light of day, so count me a doubter.
Perhaps its promoters are becoming as concerned as I am?
Hence this puff by Arabian Aerospace, for the consumption of Wall Street analysts and other fan boys?

In my humble opinion it is more likely that the 777-9 will be cancelled and their work will be done by the A380-800s already in fleets or on order, whilst the yet to be announced Super A380 will make hay with its step change in economics.

[Edited 2015-09-18 09:34:35]

[Edited 2015-09-18 09:35:08]
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 23):
Quoting al2637 (Reply 4):
Most uncomfortable aircraft I've ever flow. 10 abreast is a killer.

Try a 9-abreast A330 for comparison, compared to that a 10 abreast 777 is quite roomy.

Indeed. Or try an 8 abreast 767, even worse!

Quoting Egerton (Reply 25):

I have set out on A.net my many concerns on the 777-9 and -8 family seeing the light of day, so count me a doubter.

  You must be one of the very few. Why should the 777X be cancelled? It's a low risk program based on an aircraft flying for 20 years, the autoclave for the wings is almost ready, the wing is just an upscaled 787 wing, and the engines are not that revolutionary either (I think the GTF was a bigger step). And Boeing has learned from their experience with the 787, the 787-9 has shown that.

Quoting Egerton (Reply 25):
the yet to be announced Super A380 will make hay with its step change in economics.

You believe an aircraft program well on its way will be cancelled, while a yet unannounced program will see the light? Even Airbus has yet to be convinced of the business case of the A380 neo. I'm not saying the A380neo won't be launched (I certainly hope it will be), but it's chances are less than the probability of a 777X cancellation.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
Egerton
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:50 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:15 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 26):
Quoting Egerton (Reply 25):
the yet to be announced Super A380 will make hay with its step change in economics.

You believe an aircraft program well on its way will be cancelled, while a yet unannounced program will see the light? Even Airbus has yet to be convinced of the business case of the A380 neo. I'm not saying the A380neo won't be launched (I certainly hope it will be), but it's chances are less than the probability of a 777X cancellation.


Thanks. Possibly you missed the conditionality in my Reply 25 ?
I suggested that compared with the Arabian Aerospace opinion, my opinion was the more likely.
Neither are likely in absolute terms, but it is for the reader to judge which of these two opinions is the more likely.

Hope this helps.

[Edited 2015-09-18 10:17:52]
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:47 pm

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
Taking into account the 777X orders for EK are into the 2030s it seems they are looking at growth with the A380 and not the 777X.

EK has 196 777s on order. Their A380 demands will continue to be extremely high but yet at no point in the next 10 years do we expect EK to have more A380s then 777s. Its clearly still going to be the backbone.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 16):
As above, how do you suggest EK replace the 720 premium seats (soon to be) on their A380s per day to London?

Lets try not to use LHR has an example when its situation is an outlier. Limited capacity at LHR is a result of idiot bureaucrats and NIMBYs and thankfully the rest of the world is quite different. Going one step further its the incompetance at LHR (and elsewhere) that has lead to DXB and EK's growth.

Quoting Egerton (Reply 25):
I have set out on A.net my many concerns on the 777-9 and -8 family seeing the light of day

Its the most successful wide body launch in history and its one of the cheapest in recent memory. Your concerns are ridiculous.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11124
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
EK has 196 777s on order. Their A380 demands will continue to be extremely high but yet at no point in the next 10 years do we expect EK to have more A380s then 777s. Its clearly still going to be the backbone.

They also have 134 777s in services along with 66 A380's with 74 more on order
Forum Moderator
 
DTWPurserBoy
Posts: 2374
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:33 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:58 pm

IMHO for EK to order an A380neo not only would it required a new engine but other updates to make it more efficient. A small stretch would be good to increase capacity without reducing range.

It is hard to justify the development of such a plane for just one customer, however. The commonality with other carriers ordering the 777X makes it desirable.
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1611
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:06 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 7):
The 150 they have on order is really just for 777 replacement and not really for growth. Meanwhile they are set to double in size in less than 7 years. I don't think another 150 is outrageous. STC mentioned a fleet of over 200 A380s.

tortugamon

Yes, I agree. IMO, it's to replace, not add. 10 wide is here to stay. EK is becoming so large you really have no choice .
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
User avatar
Matt6461
Posts: 2972
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:36 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 15):
As above, how do you suggest EK replace the 720 premium seats (soon to be) on their A380s per day to London? Add another 6 77W flights? Which slots? I am not thinking of LHR but DXB slots.

DWC will have plenty of space for additional frequencies by the time significant numbers of 777X's are flying.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 20):
I am shocked nobody has mentioned a 747-8 order!!!

Never going to happen. GE pitched a massive order for 748's to EK in the last year or so, with no interest. The 748 has worse seat-mile costs than the 77W, let alone 777X, and less cargo capacity to boot. It's a shitty plane and its orders bear this out.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 8):
EK and Sir Tim Clark's language and actions in public (When's the A380neo coming out? Are you working on that A380neo yet? We'll buy them if you make them!) suggest they're not going to replace the A380 with the 779. The 779 does exactly what EK wants, but it doesn't do the A380's job.

In the absence of the NEO, EK will use far far fewer A380's. IMO they would stop taking A380CEO's altogether next decade once the 777X has sufficient availability and DWC sufficient space.

Consider this:
-If you believe EK would order as many CEO's and NEO's, why build the NEO at all?

-Even Amedeo sees unit cost parity between 777-9 and A380CEO, pre-cargo. http://www.amedeo.aero/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Amedeo_Graphs_LC1.jpg

Given equal passenger unit costs, and worse cargo ability, why would anyone - even EK - keep ordering CEO's?

Finally, I just don't see the NEO happening, so I expect EK to eventually order ~300 77X's.

Quote:
“So far we are not working actively on it because I don’t think it’s today’s priority, but we got the message of Emirates and one day we will come up with a re-engine version,” said Fabrice Bregier
http://www.thenational.ae/business/a...efficient-despite-emirates-request

Anybody who thinks this project will launch at Dubai in a couple months is delusional...
 
User avatar
HALtheAI
Posts: 296
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:30 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:31 pm

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 24):
Yes, EK, the one who just introduced a 2-class, high capacity (almost double that of a 777), wants to phase out their extremely popular fleet of A380s.......... No. As the second poster states, this is not a reliable statement at all.

It's not about whether Emirates wants to replace their A380s with 777Xs, because Clark has clearly stated their preference. However, if Airbus are hellbent on ending the programme, which is the certain result if they refuse to re-engine the plane, then what more can EK do? Eventually, EK will be forced to order 777X to replace the A380ceo as its economics become increasingly less tenable in the mid to late 2020s, particularly vis-à-vis the other low labor cost airlines in the region who'll be flying large numbers of 779Xs and A350-10s.

Regardless of what Enders has said, though, I'm actually 90% confident Airbus will do the A380neo, and for all intents and purposes, one customer. What's the business case for having EK buy more of a competitor's product? Not to mention the primary reason, the one they definitely won't be mentioning to their shareholders: to avoid the humiliation of cancelling a plane barely a decade after it first began rolling off the assembly lines.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
EK has 196 777s on order. Their A380 demands will continue to be extremely high but yet at no point in the next 10 years do we expect EK to have more A380s then 777s. Its clearly still going to be the backbone.

True, in terms of number of aircraft, it won't happen. But if you take into account that an A380 carries quite a bit more passengers, then there's a good chance in a few years (around when they've taken delivery of their first 115) EK will be transporting a majority of their pax on the A380. It depends on how soon their 773s and 77Es are retired, and how quickly they receive the remaining 77Ws on order.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
Anybody who thinks this project will launch at Dubai in a couple months is delusional...

It hinges on how you parse the meaning of "not working actively". Just because they hadn't began in June, doesn't mean they won't have by January.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:58 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 33):
True, in terms of number of aircraft, it won't happen. But if you take into account that an A380 carries quite a bit more passengers, then there's a good chance in a few years (around when they've taken delivery of their first 115) EK will be transporting a majority of their pax on the A380.

Well we will see but I think if you take 1.5X the number of A380s on-hand that will be smaller than the number of 777s on hand for a while. Not to mention the A380s fly a lot of the longer routes so in terms of passengers, as you say, the 777 frequencies could make up for some of that as well. The point is that neither aircraft is going to take the lion's share of EK's work in the near or even mid term.

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 33):
It hinges on how you parse the meaning of "not working actively". Just because they hadn't began in June, doesn't mean they won't have by January.

It takes more than 6-months to go from not working on it to working on it enough to feel comfortable asking the board to launch it and finding the right occasion to actual launch it. I think its highly unlikely we see it at DXB airshow.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2646
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:01 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
DWC will have plenty of space for additional frequencies by the time significant numbers of 777X's are flying.

Serious question, will there be a limit on capacity or frequency at any of EK's destinations, we know LHR will, but will bilaterals play a role here?

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
In the absence of the NEO, EK will use far far fewer A380's. IMO they would stop taking A380CEO's altogether next decade once the 777X has sufficient availability and DWC sufficient space.

Possibly, we'll have to see.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
Consider this:
-If you believe EK would order as many CEO's and NEO's, why build the NEO at all?

-Even Amedeo sees unit cost parity between 777-9 and A380CEO, pre-cargo.

They wouldn't, though they could address this slightly by doing the unthinkable and doing an 11 abreast A380. Not shown any appetite though.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
Given equal passenger unit costs, and worse cargo ability, why would anyone - even EK - keep ordering CEO's?

Finally, I just don't see the NEO happening, so I expect EK to eventually order ~300 77X's.

No, airlines wouldn't, but I don't see why you don't see a NEO happening, there's every chance it could happen. If Airbus can keep the development costs low, but deliver an enough of an improvement, EK will order it in large numbers and they may snare a few CEO replacement orders. Maybe even some new orders. Who knows?
 
User avatar
Matt6461
Posts: 2972
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:36 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:12 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 35):
Serious question, will there be a limit on capacity or frequency at any of EK's destinations, we know LHR will, but will bilaterals play a role here?

I think they're mostly limited by destination numbers. In Germany, for example, they're limited by destinations but not by frequency/capacity.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 35):
but I don't see why you don't see a NEO happening,

This is a looooong topic about which we've posted many threads. Basically the argument is this:

-A380CEO did poorly against 77W
-Even then, CEO's orders - EK aside - were skewed to the early years of the program, before everyone knew how good the 77W was
-A380NEO is unlikely to improve as much over CEO as 777-9 will over 77W
-Therefore NEO's competitive position against 777 will be *worse* than was the CEO's
-The CEO barely avoids production loss right now, so how will a less competitive NEO recover even $3bn development cost?

That's my broad argument for why it's a bad idea. More specifically, I would point to the "amazing reticence" of airlines about the NEO. For how many other projects has there been so little (airline) buzz. CX says it has no interest. SQ's chief said nothing positive about it during a Flightglobal interview this year. It just seems like nobody but EK wants it now, and the above points address why I believe it will never sell very well.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13240
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 36):
It just seems like nobody but EK wants it now, and the above points address why I believe it will never sell very well.

If TC's dream of 900 daily A380 flights become true, I would guess Airbus could live with just 40 neo/year.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
Ncfc99
Posts: 781
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 2:42 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 36):
$3bn development

How is a re-engine program, with most costs paid by the engine manufacturer, going to cost $3bn? What else do you think they are going to do? Are you thinking a stretch? New wing?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19115
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:18 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 32):
Given equal passenger unit costs, and worse cargo ability, why would anyone - even EK - keep ordering CEO's?

Because, as was clearly stated up-thread, swapping A380s for 779s loses hundreds of seats a day on routes like London. Not going to happen.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
HALtheAI
Posts: 296
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:30 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:25 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 34):
It takes more than 6-months to go from not working on it to working on it enough to feel comfortable asking the board to launch it and finding the right occasion to actual launch it. I think its highly unlikely we see it at DXB airshow.

Well back at the Paris Air Show, Leahy said Airbus was talking to a few customers about a "small stretch" to accompany a re-engine, so clearly at least a bit of work had been done. Plus Airbus likely wants a couple other customers committed, say QR and SQ, before they formally unveil the program.

The longer Airbus spends twiddling their thumbs, the more serious the production gap is going to become. Their CFO back in December noted that they might have to discontinue the A380 in 2018, because once you remove the 50 or so 'firm' orders that will never be delivered, there's nothing left to build in 2018 except a few leftover A380s from EK's first 115. For 2019-2021, Airbus only has the last tranche of 25 for Emirates and 5 for SQ. So ideally, they need the A380neo ready for production in early 2021, if not sooner.

[Edited 2015-09-18 14:27:47]
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:29 pm

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 38):
How is a re-engine program, with most costs paid by the engine manufacturer, going to cost $3bn? What else do you think they are going to do? Are you thinking a stretch? New wing?

The A320neo still cost Airbus $1.32 Billion and that is a pretty straight forward re-engine. I don't envision an A380neo being similar or less complicated. The Max is said to cost $2-3 Billion.

tortugamon
 
TKA380
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:05 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:44 pm

Quoting al2637 (Reply 4):

9 abreast is much better, TK for example was very comfortable on their 77W's.
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:12 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Well, the 200 A380s wíll be spread over about a decade too, 20 A380s per year sounds possible. Isn't that the amount of A380s EK will be taking per year from 2018 on or so? Most orders for other airlines will be fulfilled then.

I think, EK ideally will want to grow with both A380s and 777X's, and don't forget the 78X/A359s order we eagerly anticipate at the Dubai airshow

I am amazed by the growth and projected growth of EK. Not only do they have the biggest A380 and 77W fleet, they will have the largest 777X fleet and will have another 50-70 787X (most likely) to add to those aircraft. My guess is something will have to give, either EY or QR will be eaten up by EK (too much growth for 3 airlines IMO) or EK will consolidate and some of their current orders will be cancelled to promote profitability over growth. That will be both A380s and 777Xs, but this will mean either EY or QR will keep growing so there will still be orders for both types.

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 18):
That's why EK is having a whole new airport being built for them. And by the time EK's A380s start to be retired en masse, even LHR might have another runway.

The new airport was also designed to handle 100 A380s at a time, not allow 100 in their fleet but 100 at the airport.  Wow!
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
EK has 196 777s on order. Their A380 demands will continue to be extremely high but yet at no point in the next 10 years do we expect EK to have more A380s then 777s. Its clearly still going to be the backbone.

If we take Sir Tim Clark's word as gospel and he orders another 200 A380s (neo's) then they will have 196 777/777X on order and 274 A380s. Seems to me that will be the backbone of the EK fleet and the 777 will just be a complimentary piece. 

Yes, I am just pulling your leg as I don't think EK will order another 200 A380s along with their current 70 odd outstanding. Just because it is a bigger aircraft would lend it to not be the backbone of their fleet. This is EK though so who knows what they will do.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
Lets try not to use LHR has an example when its situation is an outlier. Limited capacity at LHR is a result of idiot bureaucrats and NIMBYs and thankfully the rest of the world is quite different. Going one step further its the incompetance at LHR (and elsewhere) that has lead to DXB and EK's growth.

Well we can't just ignore LHR as I doubt its importance in the world will decrease in future. I also don't think that the LHR-DXB route is the be all of EK where their profit is made or lost.

Most likely if EK didn't have the 10 A380 flights to London per day (2 Qantas flights as well) they would actually have had more flights to the other cities in the UK.
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:20 pm

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 43):
The new airport was also designed to handle 100 A380s at a time, not allow 100 in their fleet but 100 at the airport

100 at the airport at a time, probably translates to between 300 and 500 in a fleet (assuming they are all EK).
Don't see that happening though. But on the other hand, there is nothing wrong with having room in hand to expand.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
jacobchoi
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:32 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:27 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 12):
A380neo in bulk

I thought CX said they would order the A389, but I think they will consider the A380neo despite them not ordering the current A380s
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:37 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 23):
Quoting al2637 (Reply 4):
Most uncomfortable aircraft I've ever flow. 10 abreast is a killer.

Try a 9-abreast A330 for comparison, compared to that a 10 abreast 777 is quite roomy.

But what full service carriers operate 9-abreast A330s? None that I can think of. They're all charter and low-cost carriers. Same thing with the few 767s that have been operated with even worse 8-abreast seating.

The problem with 10-abreast 777s is that they're not as roomy as 10-abreast 747s, 9-abreast 777s, 8-abreast A330s/340s, and especially 7-abreast 767s, which are fortunately often options to 10-abreast 777s. Luckily for the airlines, few Y class passengers fly longhaul often enough have any awareness of those differences.
 
User avatar
HALtheAI
Posts: 296
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:30 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:00 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 45):
I thought CX said they would order the A389, but I think they will consider the A380neo despite them not ordering the current A380s

Aviation Week, April:
Quote:
At the other end of the scale, Cathay is also watching to see what sort of offering Airbus will come up with for an updated A380. If a new engine option yields greater efficiency, “we’d be interested in looking at it,” says Chu. However, he stresses that Cathay is a big fan of the widebody twin-engine aircraft types, and the carrier would only consider a larger type if it offered better operating economics.

CAPA, August:
Quote:
Cathay's interest in this type is unclear, but CEO Ivan Chu told a 19-Aug-2015 Bloomberg TV interview that the carrier is not interested in the A380neo.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6606
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:07 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 46):
The problem with 10-abreast 777s is that they're not as roomy as 10-abreast 747s

The 777X will be vanishingly close to the 10Y 747. I don't think it will be a type people go out of their way to avoid.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2646
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

RE: Emirates 777 Rakes 859,000 Flights, More 777x

Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 36):
-A380CEO did poorly against 77W
-Even then, CEO's orders - EK aside - were skewed to the early years of the program, before everyone knew how good the 77W was
-A380NEO is unlikely to improve as much over CEO as 777-9 will over 77W
-Therefore NEO's competitive position against 777 will be *worse* than was the CEO's
-The CEO barely avoids production loss right now, so how will a less competitive NEO recover even $3bn development cost?

Fair enough. I'd answer the final part by saying that if Airbus can get 200+ NEO orders, then the $3bn figure should be covered easily enough, and if it does make that back then it can start to eat back into the original outlay, it is unlikely to get all the way but every little helps. That said, anyone who uses an A380 now is a candidate, because they have found a use for it alongside the 77W. That's a key thing to remember, airlines can use both, as 4 out of 6 777X users demonstrate.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos