Rumor: MIA To Get Another ULH Route

Miami · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:19 pm

I've been told that MIA is expecting some exciting news this November. It will be a new carrier and it will be an ultra long-haul route (if nonstop).

This is NOT a rumor. Chris Mangos (Marketing Division Director) 'pretty much' confirmed it to staff members.. Now, if something gets in the way then something got in the way. But sometime in November we should expect great news.

Although, the airline cannot be named just yet. It'll be interesting to have a speculation.

Any guesses?

-Miami

tortugamon · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:26 pm

NRT or DXB are my guesses! Great news.

tortugamon

dfwjim1 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:27 pm

I agree...I am going with JL or EK to NRT or DXB.

aa1818 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:29 pm

I agree with the previous guesses of NRT and DXB.
What about HKG or AUH? CX is oneworld and AA and EY are quite close?

Cheers,
AA1818

A388 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:29 pm

It can also be SA, right? That airline was also in the rumor mill some time ago, right?

A388

aa1818 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:33 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 4):
It can also be SA, right? That airline was also in the rumor mill some time ago, right?

Very true, perhaps AA to JNB?

AA1818

Rookinla · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:36 pm

Based on the verbiage in the original post, I'm going with SA. NRT and DXB could certainly be it but those routes would definitely be nonstop. However SA does route lengthy US services via ACC and/or DKR. And SA has been rumored for quite some time and their US HQ is in Ft. Lauderdale. That's just my two cents.

A388 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 3):
I agree with the previous guesses of NRT and DXB.
What about HKG or AUH? CX is oneworld and SA)">AA and EY are quite close?

Cheers,
AA1818

Can the 77W fly HKG-MIA nonstop? I don't think CX has an aircraft with that type of range yet.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
Quoting A388 (Reply 4):It can also be SA, right? That airline was also in the rumor mill some time ago, right?
Very true, perhaps SA)">AA to JNB?

AA1818

That indeed was also a rumor but I'm also going for SA on this route as the new ULH route.

A388

usairways85 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:49 pm

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):

Very true, perhaps AA to JNB?

Apparently it's a new carrier

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 2):
I agree...I am going with JL or EK to NRT or DXB.

JL has a restriction (with a grey area) on new routes until 2017, has JL ever served MIA?

adamh8297 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:56 pm

I like the odds of EY AUH-MIA. Just seems like a good fit with a 789.

Dark Horse: CA PEK-MIA

MAH4546 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:58 pm

I would not be shocked to see Air China run Miami-Beijing 4w. The Miami-China local market is exploding, especially on the premium end.

747megatop · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting Miami (Thread starter):
Any guesses?

NRT i guess.

Ytraveller · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:04 pm

I don't expect EK, considering they just started MCO 30 minutes flight away.

jfk777 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:06 pm

Tokyo by AA or JAL is the biggest missing hole in MIA's route map. Emirates would also make sense since Miami is the last major city they do not fly to.

Thenoflyzone · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:19 pm

My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

FSDan · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:36 pm

Quoting Rookinla (Reply 6):
Based on the verbiage in the original post, I'm going with SA. NRT and DXB could certainly be it but those routes would definitely be nonstop. However SA does route lengthy US services via ACC and/or DKR. And SA has been rumored for quite some time and their US HQ is in Ft. Lauderdale. That's just my two cents.

I agree based on the wording. "If nonstop" would make me think of SA to JNB (maybe via ACC), or CX to HKG (maybe via NRT).

readytotaxi · Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

That does have a ring of sense about it. And the equipment to make it work.

tortugamon · Tue Sep 22, 2015 6:18 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

That is two birds (rumors) with one stone. I like it.

tortugamon

a380787 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 6:58 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

That is two birds (rumors) with one stone. I like it.

any type of international transit involving MIA F.I.S. ? urgh ....

UAEflyer · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:04 pm

Most probably it would be Chinese carrier, and maybe not from PEK, I would say from CAN or PVG.

airbazar · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
I would not be shocked to see Air China run Miami-Beijing 4w. The Miami-China local market is exploding, especially on the premium end.

I think it will be Hainan. They are on a North America expansion binge and the reason is because of the Chinese "one route, one carrier" rule they are trying to beat Air China to routes from PEK that CA can't yet operate due to lack of appropriate aircraft.

Quoting Ytraveller (Reply 12):
I don't expect EK, considering they just started MCO 30 minutes flight away.

Since when has that stopped EK? BOS-JFK are even closer not to mention other city pairs in Europe such as LHR/MAN.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

I don't think they have 5th freedom from Mexico.

dbo861 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 14):
My money is on EK with DXB-MIA-MEX-MIA-DXB.

Forgive my ignorance on this subject, but if they flew this route, would they be able to sell seats on the MIA-MEX portion? Or would they only be able to carry through passengers on that segment?

a380787 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:10 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 19):
Most probably it would be Chinese carrier, and maybe not from PEK, I would say from CAN or PVG.

CAN-MIA is 8900mi .... won't happen for at least 5-10 years (esp given how weak CZ is transpacific)

ARN · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:52 pm

What about ET to ADD?

OB1504 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 7:57 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 18):
any type of international transit involving MIA F.I.S. ?

Plus the visa requirement just to transit. I highly doubt it's going to be EK DXB-MIA-MEX.

I also doubt it's going to be EK at all because they already serve Florida through MCO and B6, and Latin America through PTY and CM.

RyanairGuru · Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 21):

Not only would they not be able to sell seats, the MEX passengers will have to go through US CBP in both directions, including having to comply with US visa requirements.

While a cute idea, IMHO DXB-MEX will go through a 'friendlier' port.

Thenoflyzone · Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:02 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
That is two birds (rumors) with one stone. I like it.

it's a long shot, but hey..you know what they say....."go big or go home" !

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
I think it will be Hainan.

May be Hainan, but it will be hard to get decent slot times at PEK. They just announced PEK-TLV, with abysmal hours to/from PEK.

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 19):

Most probably it would be Chinese carrier, and maybe not from PEK,

Only CA has the proper slots to launch PEK-MIA. Doubt MU or CA will launch PVG-MIA. CAN-MIA is too far, as was said. Maybe Hainan might attempt PVG-MIA. They already codeshare with AA and it will be easier for them to get proper slots compared to PEK.

[Edited 2015-09-22 13:23:06]

yellowtail · Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:13 pm

With only wild guess is will put my money on MIA-JNB on SA.
I will put a secondary bet on EY AUH-MIA.

I think EK are out due to aforementioned reasons. and NRT and PEK overfly too many hubs for too little benefit.

LAXdude1023 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:30 pm

SA is losing money hand over fist. MIA won't do anything but accelerate the bleeding.

A more realistic guess would be EK. They are in growth mode and MIA would be a good add for them.

ec99 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:31 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
With only wild guess is will put my money on MIA-JNB on SA.I will put a secondary bet on EY AUH-MIA.I think EK are out due to aforementioned reasons. and NRT and PEK overfly too many hubs for too little benefit.

MIA-JNB (at 8061 miles) would be the 2nd longest flight in the world after the EK service to Panama starts - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stop_flight#Longest_flights

I question whether MIA and JNB can support the fares needed to justify a 8000+ mile route. MIA-NRT would be the third longest flight in the world. Same logic as above applies and as noted above, several hubs with service to Japan make very logical stopping points.

SA with a connection however makes sense, especially if they have fifth freedom rights and can connect another African capital with Miami. Of course, it could be much less exciting like a daily Condor flight to Frankfurt.

dbo861 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting EC99 (Reply 29):
MIA-JNB (at 8061 miles) would be the 2nd longest flight in the world after the EK service to Panama starts - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stop_flight#Longest_flights

What about DL ATL-JNB? Or Qantas DFW-SYD? Wouldn't both of those be longer?

a380787 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting EC99 (Reply 29):

I question whether MIA and JNB can support the fares needed to justify a 8000+ mile route. MIA-NRT would be the third longest flight in the world. Same logic as above applies and as noted above, several hubs with service to Japan make very logical stopping points.

NRT-MIA is just 7436mi (statute miles, not nm). Tons of routes longer than that.

Noise · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:07 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Emirates would also make sense since Miami is the last major city they do not fly to.

What are you saying? Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver yet. I would hardly call Miami the last major city they do not fly to.

atct · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:12 pm

Quoting Miami (Thread starter):
Any guesses?

Silver Saab 340 to Pensacola....id classify that as ultra long haul (on a Saab!)

a380787 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:13 pm

Quoting Noise (Reply 32):

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Emirates would also make sense since Miami is the last major city they do not fly to.

What are you saying? Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver yet. I would hardly call Miami the last major city they do not fly to.

They have no spare rights to fly to YVR/YUL now. I think what he's saying is MIA being one of the largest remaining cities that EK can launch tomorrow with no downside implications.

Launching either YVR/YUL would mean trimming their already thin 3x weekly schedule to YYZ, which makes nearly zero sense.

MAH4546 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:14 pm

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 24):
I also doubt it's going to be EK at all because they already serve Florida through MCO and B6, and Latin America through PTY and CM.

Neither of those two things are going to stop Emirates from flying from Miami. You realize many airlines fly to all three?

Now I will give that since MCO and PTY are in their infancy, it would be better to focus on developing those before throwing more capacity into the market and adding MIA, but Emirates doesn't really operate like that, and with QR and soon TK in Miami, and Etihad a very real possibility, EK needs to do what it can to get a foothold in the Miami market, which is larger than PTY and MCO combined.

[Edited 2015-09-22 14:15:24]

chrisp390 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:19 pm

I recall reading many years ago that AA served JNB from somewhere and it was the longest route in the world at that time. Does anybody recall what this route was?

flymia · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:21 pm

While one of the two Middle Eastern three or JAL to NRT make the most logical sense at the moment. And there have been rumors for a couple years about JNB and SA, I have a feeling it will be a Chinese Carrier. There have been many articles in the real estate blogs regarding real estate investment in Miami and trying to attract the Chinese. For my work this is a good thing, for me looking to buy a home in 2 years or so, its not so good of a thing.

Anyway, one of the first major steps in trying to get the Chinese to take Miami more seriously. Non-stop flights, or at the very least a direct same plane routing. Chinese investors are already starting to look at major projects and proposing major projects in Miami. And of course, Swire is building a one billion dollar + project right now in the heart of Miami's financial district which its first stage is nearly completion.

Miami-China makes a lot of sense right now if a China carrier thinks the demand will be there, and I do think a flight like this will pop up demand a lot once announced and flown.

Or, if could just be El Al coming back.

eal · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:26 pm

I would put my money on an ME3 (most likely Etihad) or Hainan from either PEK or PVG, I also wouldn't cut out Royal Jordanian or EL AL. Hainan has been in the business of opening up those traditional non-Asia markets. I would like to see JAL to NRT but I think that's unlikely considering JAL's current expansion policies, but who knows, perhaps they're getting inventive.

Would Royal Air Maroc be too far fetched? I think MIA would be a good fit for the airline given the connections on both ends in addition to tourism to Morocco it self.

DolphinAir747 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:28 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 7):
Can the 77W fly HKG-MIA nonstop? I don't think CX has an aircraft with that type of range yet.

HKG YYC MIA? HKG SEA MIA?

TC957 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:29 pm

How about OZ or KE to ICN ?

tortugamon · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:49 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 19):
Most probably it would be Chinese carrier, and maybe not from PEK, I would say from CAN

A new longest non-stop flight! I am suspect though.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 18):
any type of international transit involving MIA F.I.S. ? urgh ....

Help me...even after a google search....FIS - I get there would be approval issues to get this tag to work but just don't know the acronym.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 26):
it's a long shot, but hey..you know what they say....."go big or go home" !

Absolutely. I think most of that MEX traffic is planning on going through PTY right now but it really isn't convenient for this top 11 country by population to get to the middle east or south Asia.

Quoting Noise (Reply 32):
What are you saying? Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver yet. I would hardly call Miami the last major city they do not fly to.

CLT, DEN, BWI, STL, TPA, SAN, MSP, DTW, ONT, PHX, ATL, MIA, IAD, PHL are all bigger than the YVR Statistical area and don't have EK service so there are a lot of cities in-line for being upset for not being called a major city before Vancouver

Half that list is bigger than YUL as well.

tortugamon

a380787 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:55 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 41):
Quoting a380787 (Reply 18):
any type of international transit involving MIA F.I.S. ? urgh ....

Help me...even after a google search....FIS - I get there would be approval issues to get this tag to work but just don't know the acronym.

referring to the hassle of clearing US immigration and customs at MIA on a hypothetical DXB-MIA-MEX when the customer may not have interest or the necessary visas to even transit US ... and it's not like the immigration officers are the nicest bunch out there.

jfk777 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:59 pm

Quoting Noise (Reply 32):
Emirates would also make sense since Miami is the last major city they do not fly to.
What are you saying? Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver yet. I would hardly call Miami the last major city they do not fly to.

The last major city in North America.

The reason Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver is the Canadian Government. Ottawa will only allow 3 Emirates flights to Canada weekly since that is what they have determined is enough for the market between Canada and Dubai.

I would love to see the Canadian use that logic with the UK and have the British Government cut back Air Canada's flights to London, AC has lots of those including Vancouver and Montreal plus Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa.

LAX772LR · Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:08 pm

Quoting EC99 (Reply 29):
MIA-JNB (at 8061 miles) would be the 2nd longest flight in the world after the EK service to Panama starts

Nowhere close to that. MIA-JNB is shorter than SA)">DL's extant ATL-JNB.

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 36):
I recall reading many years ago that SA)">AA served JNB from somewhere and it was the longest route in the world at that time. Does anybody recall what this route was?

Nope. SA was the one who flew to MIA and later JNB-CPT-FLL-ATL-JNB

During a brief time, SA's ATL-JNB segment was the longest scheduled flight in the world, but not the longest roundtrip, as CO's westbound EWR-HKG was longer than anything SA flew westbound. They killed it after 9/11.

tortugamon · Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:10 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 42):
referring to the hassle of clearing US immigration and customs at MIA on a hypothetical DXB-MIA-MEX when the customer may not have interest or the necessary visas to even transit US ... and it's not like the immigration officers are the nicest bunch out there.

Hear you absolutely. I feel like I know the F in FIS help a brother out with I.S.?

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 43):
Ottawa will only allow 3 Emirates flights to Canada weekly

Is that true? I thought YYZ was daily. What a joke.

tortugamon

KirkSeattle · Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 44):
Quoting EC99 (Reply 29):
MIA-JNB (at 8061 miles) would be the 2nd longest flight in the world after the EK service to Panama starts

Nowhere close to that. MIA-JNB is shorter than SA)">DL's extant ATL-JNB.

Great Circle Mapper:

MIA-JNB 7,005
ATL-JNB 7,333

And for reference
PEK-MIA is 6,753

I have no bets on who it is as I'm not familiar with business sector in MIA.

Cheers,
KirkSeattle

[Edited 2015-09-22 15:18:14]

Thenoflyzone · Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:38 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 41):
CLT, DEN, BWI, STL, TPA, SAN, MSP, DTW, PHX, ATL, MIA, IAD, PHL are all bigger than the YVR Statistical area and don't have EK service

IAD has EK service. Therefore you can scratch IAD and also BWI off that list. Also, SAN can't happen non stop due to runway length. PHX most likely as well due to a combination of heat, altitude and runway length.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 45):

Is that true? I thought YYZ was daily. What a joke.

Canada-UAE bilateral allows for 6 passenger flights/week for each country's designated carriers. 3 are flown by EK and 3 by EY, all to YYZ. AC will soon start 3 weekly YYZ-DXB as well. If they want to add frequency they can do so up to 6 weekly only as well.

[Edited 2015-09-22 15:59:09]

Viscount724 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:31 pm

Quoting Noise (Reply 32):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Emirates would also make sense since Miami is the last major city they do not fly to.

What are you saying? Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver yet. I would hardly call Miami the last major city they do not fly to.

MIA metro population is almost 3 times as big as YVR and about 40% bigger than YUL.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 43):
The reason Emirates doesn't fly to Montreal or Vancouver is the Canadian Government. Ottawa will only allow 3 Emirates flights to Canada weekly since that is what they have determined is enough for the market between Canada and Dubai.

I would love to see the Canadian use that logic with the UK and have the British Government cut back Air Canada's flights to London, AC has lots of those including Vancouver and Montreal plus Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa.

They can't do that. Canada-UK. has been Open Skies since several years before the Canada-EU Open Skies agreement was signed covering most of Europe. All Canadian and U.K. carriers are free to fly as often as they want between anywhere in Canada and anywhere in the UK.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 8):
has JL ever served MIA?

In the 1980s JL stopped at MIA for a while en route to Brazil but MIA was a fuel stop only, no traffic rights. See Replies 2 and 12 in this 2004 thread:
http://9www.airliners.net/aviation-f...general_aviation/read.main/1648666

There's also a footnote in the Wikipedia article on JL reading as follows:

Initial route was NRT-ANC-JFK-SJU-VCP-GIG; in 1981 it became NRT-ANC-MIA-VCP and in 1982 NRT-LAX-MIA-VCP. JL dropped Brazil for a few years around 1990.

Longhaul flights had to use VCP airport to serve Sao Paulo before GRU opened.

slcdeltarumd11 · Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:38 pm

JNB would make the most sense. MIA is the perfect launching pad for that route.

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