Future Of UA At IAD?

staralliance85 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:28 pm

Over the past couple of years, UA has made many cost cutting efforts to be profitable. Two years ago, UA dehubbed CLE. There has been a lot of talk that IAD will be eventually dehubbed. There are several factors into play.

1. IAD was a main sub-UA hub to compete against with sub Co-EWR and US-PHL. Now post merger, EWR has taken away all the attention from IAD being within 200 miles from each other. All the focus seems to be on EWR to make it their East Coast powerhouse. They just shut down JFK to focus more attention on EWR. In the future it can be at the expense of IAD.

2. More of the DC local traffic prefer DCA. DCA is an AA hub and it is much closer to downtown Washington DC. IAD trails behind DCA and BWI.

3. Weak Connecting traffic. Besides transcend service, domestic flights are very limited to IAD. They cut the capacities from CLT and ATL and there is no more service to anywhere in South Florida.

4. The only main international flights that IAD has that EWR doesn't are DXB and KWI. Most of the time the loads on the 777 are very light and with tough competition from the ME3 they must be losing a ton of money on those routes. I can see using a 787-800 from EWR. Most of the time the PEK loads are very light as well and they can use their partner CA or 1 stop to other hubs.

5. UA's "Temporary" C and D concourse is very old, narrow and outdated. It was built back in the 80's as a temporary terminal and is a complete eye soar. While the other airlines concourse A and B are 'state of the art". If UA was interested in a long term presence at IAD they would of updated their concourse.

jfk777 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:41 pm

United still has substantial international flights to Asia, Europe and Brazil in South America. Whatever happens or not at Newark Dulles has more then enough mass to justify its existence to United. They fly to Peking and Tokyo, all over Europe and Sao Paulo plus all the west coast flights. What is there to close here ?

holzmann · Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:11 pm

Please don't advocate UA reductions at IAD. For a DC resident, IAD is my only direct gateway to many destinations like FRA, MUC, CDG, LHR, FCO and dozens more. Remove UA from IAD and I certainly will leave MileagePlus and establish loyalty elsewhere.

815Oceanic · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:03 pm

IAD and EWR together make a lot of sense. However, with expanded service at DCA and expensive fees, I do not see UA expanding in the near future. I do, however, see UA using this as a power play:

Think about it. If UA cuts capacity so that it hurts, they can go to the airport system and demand lower, fairer fees. If the fees are lowered, UA would use IAD as the connecting hub with plenty of space for expansion while EWR would focus more on O+D.

DolphinAir747 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:06 pm

I can't see GRU sticking around for long.

iadbudd · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:18 pm

IAD-GRU has been around for years, and this winter is returning back to a 777 after operating as a 767

Freshside3 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:18 pm

Quoting 815Oceanic (Reply 3):
I do, however, see UA using this as a power play:

But also a "power play" of a different sort....basically to put the squeeze on the Flight Attendants, until the contract thing is settled. Keep in mind that IAD is a sub-UA base, while EWR is a sub-CO base. And also one of the reasons(if not the main reason)that they closed the SEA crew base, is to put the squeeze on them. There have been obviously some schedule reductions in IAD. Getting the contracts settled will lessen the chance of any further reductions.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 4):
I can't see GRU sticking around for long.

I think the only reason GRU is at IAD, is because, PanAm's gateway airports were JFK and MIA....and not that much hub feed. It made sense to move them elsewhere, to better fit the UA route structure. But IAD-GRU always struck me as odd.....never believed there was that much local traffic. IAD is not a "natural fit" for the Brazil market, in comparison to NYC airports, MIA, and even LAX.

IndianicWorld · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:23 pm

IAD still has a role for UA, even if it continues to be right sized to some extent in the future.

EWR can not handle significant UA expansion and that will leave their East Coast network with very little in the way of growth potential if IAD is not in the mix.

B737900ER · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:35 pm

Has it been a month already? Another UA at IAD thread

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 6):
But also a "power play" of a different sort....basically to put the squeeze on the Flight Attendants, until the contract thing is settled. Keep in mind that IAD is a sub-UA base, while EWR is a sub-CO base. And also one of the reasons(if not the main reason)that they closed the SEA crew base, is to put the squeeze on them. There have been obviously some schedule reductions in IAD. Getting the contracts settled will lessen the chance of any further reductions.

Really? They reduce entire stations as a negotiating tool for flight attendants? Really? I'd hate to see what they'd do to put the squeeze on pilots and mechanics!

PDPsol · Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:53 pm

The real value UA has developed at IAD is associated with its non-stop international network. UA serves western Europe from IAD, with LH connections at MUC and FRA, as well as GRU, the most important market in South America, as well as NRT and PEK, key Asian markets.

UA is very important for Washington, DC and its global connectivity will be greatly restricted if the local market were to depend solely on ME3 + TK, European carriers, and NH and KE for Asia, for its international access. There are NO non-stop alternatives to GRU from Washington without UA. If Washington, DC truly requires vast global, non-stop connectivity, then UA must retain its network from IAD.

Washington, DC is home to the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Finance Corporation, the Department of State, the Department of the Treasury, all the foreign missions with representation in the United States, the Department of Defense, and many, many non-governmental organizations and agencies with international operations. All these institutions require non-stop global access, and their connectivity will suffer should UA fold its vast international network from IAD.

UALFAson · Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:49 pm

Quoting B737900ER (Reply 8):
Has it been a month already? Another UA at IAD thread

IKR?! I can't believe I'm about to waste my time replying.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Most of the time the loads on the 777 are very light and with tough competition from the ME3 they must be losing a ton of money on those routes. I can see using a 787-800 from EWR. Most of the time the PEK loads are very light as well

Where are you getting this information from? Anecdotally, my experiences have been very different. I also assure you UA would not continue to fly routes that are unprofitable simply for prestige reasons. Keep in mind that because of the length of these flights, many people are allowed to fly premium classes under corporate travel policies. If the premium cabins are full, the flight can make money even if economy is light.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 4):
I can't see GRU sticking around for long.

Brazil has long supported air service to Washington, DC. Transbrasil and VARIG both served IAD years before UA started service.

UA will continue to right-size at IAD. The most likely scenario is that it will turn into an AA-style operation at JFK, with a single large bank of international flights in the evening fed by a certain amount of regional and mainline domestic flights, with a fair number of transcon flights spread throughout the day as well. As noted above, EWR is constrained in its growth and DC is too premium of a market to abandon completely as a hub, IMHO. DCA also does not have enough capacity to handle West Coast-nonstop demand.

bmacleod · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:11 pm

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
They just shut down JFK to focus more attention on EWR

Running both JFK and EWR must have burned big

for UA.

Washington DC is quite far from NYC and shutting down IAD would leave quite a gap in the region so surely UA isn't planning to pull out of IAD.

dc10lover · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:16 pm

IAD will go the way of SEA where they will only serve their hubs. IAD will eventually shrink like in SEA and be dehubed. WN will have more flights out of IAD.

N1120A · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:20 pm

IAD serves a substantial amount of O&D to/from Europe. Under "Fly American" rules, government employees and contractors spend substantial money on the flights out of IAD. Further, IAD is far less subject to delays than EWR. Not going anywhere.

jayunited · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:46 pm

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):

God here we go again another speculation thread about UA and IAD. I thought we would make it to October without somebody starting another ridiculous thread about UA's IAD hub.

If you had bother to do a quick search of the archives you will find that people such as yourself have been making these types of statements about IAD for years and yet the last 2 major international long haul nonstop flights UA permanently cut from IAD's schedule if I remember correctly were DME and EZE.
Just because you checked the seat map on united.com or some other cite for the same flights for a few consecutive days and saw a light load does not mean UA is sending lightly loaded 777's daily. And now that I'm in load planning I get to see the bigger picture (load factors) more clearly and while there are days during the slow season where UA has light loads it not most of the time as you claim. And one thing I have learned over the years working for UA is load factors do not determine profit. UA has cut routes over the years that have had extremely high load factors but low yields while keeping routes with high yield but marginal load factors.

mattnrsa · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:49 pm

UA has shown that routes and hubs will be closed if they are not profitable. If a route is flying, it is most likely adding to the bottom line. There are too many routes served from IAD that cannot be covered from DCA.

flyingclrs727 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:57 pm

So why after all these years is IAD not connected to Washington DC's metro system? If it were as easy to get to DCA as BWI, perhaps there might be more O&D passengers. It's a great airport for connections.

CALTECH · Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:14 pm

IAD is here to stay. It is not going to be shut down.

Quoting flyingclrs727 (Reply 16):
So why after all these years is IAD not connected to Washington DC's metro system?

Ask the folks in charge, your government at work.....

DC Metro extension to Dulles airport delayed until 2019

http://thehill.com/policy/transporta...-dulles-airport-delayed-until-2019

hiflyer · Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:24 pm

First off...yup the metro is within a few miles now with convenient bus service for the last little leg...it is doubtful PATH will ever get to EWR now. Secondly IAD has a lot of long runways pointing in multiple directions while EWR is strangled with limited runway space as well as airspace congestion causing extensive delays,,,not a good place to operate even a mini hub or a large line station. STAR is well represented at IAD and has it's own Customs for connecting pax that avoids going to the main terminal and then coming back out. Online UA-UA thru Customs is only 70 mins....lot of FIS facilities for other carriers can run 120.

Besides...anyone wanna bet that the aftermath of Smisek will force UA to divest of some EWR assets to appease the investigations now ongoing?

Smisek already donated JFK to the issue...grin

bigb · Sat Sep 26, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting hiflyer (Reply 18):
Besides...anyone wanna bet that the aftermath of Smisek will force UA to divest of some EWR assets to appease the investigations now ongoing? Smisek already donated JFK to the issue...grin

I doubt it

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 12):

IAD will go the way of SEA where they will only serve their hubs. IAD will eventually shrink like in SEA and be dehubed. WN will have more flights out of IAD.

I doubt it

flyingclrs727 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 7:15 pm

Quoting hiflyer (Reply 18):

First off...yup the metro is within a few miles now with convenient bus service for the last little leg..

Oh that's so convenient when one has a 49.5 pound checked bag plus a roll aboard carry on bag.

DolphinAir747 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:54 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 6):
Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 4):
I can't see GRU sticking around for long.

I think the only reason GRU is at IAD, is because, PanAm's gateway airports were JFK and MIA....and not that much hub feed. It made sense to move them elsewhere, to better fit the UA route structure. But IAD-GRU always struck me as odd.....never believed there was that much local traffic. IAD is not a "natural fit" for the Brazil market, in comparison to NYC airports, MIA, and even LAX.

IAD-GRU and ORD-GRU load factors are in the low 60s unlike IAH-GRU and EWR-GRU which are in the high 80s, IIRC.

N1120A · Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:08 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 21):
IAD-GRU and ORD-GRU load factors are in the low 60s unlike IAH-GRU and EWR-GRU which are in the high 80s, IIRC.

Load factors aren't necessarily indicators of yield.

AADC10 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:16 pm

I think UA will hang on to IAD as a hub, although it might see some reductions. As was alluded to in some posts, in the old CO system, CLE was a reliever hub to the slot restricted EWR. Right now ORD takes most of what EWR cannot handle but ORD has its limits too as we saw in the 1990s. IAD is established and has the available capacity that EWR does not have now but more importantly for when ORD reaches capacity again, then the transatlantic and east coast north-south flights will go to IAD.

The other role IAD serves is to partially address the big hole in UA's network, the southeast. UA now has two hubs on the edges of the southeast, IAH and IAD but none in the middle like DL's ATL or AA's CLT. Eliminating IAD would make the hole much larger.

There were stronger calls during UA's bankruptcy to eliminate a hub with IAD, DEN, and LAX on the lists, and analysts demanding their elimination but in the end, UA held onto all of them. CLE was always burnt toast in the merger but IAD has enough going for it so that it is likely to limp along. DEN might be on the bubble more than IAD because IAH and longer range narrowbodies make it a little more redundant.

DolphinAir747 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:20 pm

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 23):
I think UA will hang on to IAD as a hub, although it might see some reductions. As was alluded to in some posts, in the old CO system, CLE was a reliever hub to the slot restricted EWR. Right now ORD takes most of what EWR cannot handle but ORD has its limits too as we saw in the 1990s. IAD is established and has the available capacity that EWR does not have now but more importantly for when ORD reaches capacity again, then the transatlantic and east coast north-south flights will go to IAD.

The other role IAD serves is to partially address the big hole in UA's network, the southeast. UA now has two hubs on the edges of the southeast, IAH and IAD but none in the middle like DL's ATL or AA's CLT. Eliminating IAD would make the hole much larger.

Honestly, IAD does not have a huge connecting role in UA's network but serves the O&D traffic primarily.

fxramper · Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:33 pm

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 12):
IAD will go the way of SEA where they will only serve their hubs. IAD will eventually shrink like in SEA and be dehubed. WN will have more flights out of IAD.

Only 12 replies to get a realistic reply.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 13):
government employees and contractors spend substantial money on the flights out of IAD.

Feds don't pay for tickets. It's a non rev write off.

Quoting mattnrsa (Reply 15):

UA has shown that routes and hubs will be closed if they are not profitable.

It only takes a decade to dump non profitable hubs a la JFK.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 17):
IAD is here to stay. It is not going to be shut down.

No one said it's going away.

Eventually, it will lose hub status and flights. New CEO should make that a priority.

UA444 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:36 pm

Why do people think IAD and CLE are similar? CLE is a 2nd tier city with little o&d, no international ties, and no major attractions aside from the Rock n' roll hall of fame.

Washington DC is the nation's Capitol for crying out loud. If UA pulls out, DL and AA will swoop in an instant.

bigb · Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:11 pm

Quoting fxramper (Reply 25):
Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 12):
IAD will go the way of SEA where they will only serve their hubs. IAD will eventually shrink like in SEA and be dehubed. WN will have more flights out of IAD.

Only 12 replies to get a realistic reply.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 13):
government employees and contractors spend substantial money on the flights out of IAD.

Feds don't pay for tickets. It's a non rev write off.

Quoting mattnrsa (Reply 15):

UA has shown that routes and hubs will be closed if they are not profitable.

It only takes a decade to dump non profitable hubs a la JFK.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 17):
IAD is here to stay. It is not going to be shut down.

No one said it's going away.

Eventually, it will lose hub status and flights. New CEO should make that a priority.

IAD is not going to lose its hub status. UA has found a niche for IAD.
-IAD serves as UA gateway to the northwest. UA has focused on funneling traffic through IAD instead of EWR.
-IAD still commands strong O&D for international flights and domestic flights beyond the DCA limits
-IAD serves as a reliever for EWR
-It wouldn't surprise me if UA even funneled passengers through IAD for big market internation flights like LHR or FRA instead of EWR.

Number two, feds do pay for air fare. They get them on a discounted rate and they are usually have flexibility with the air fares.

pu · Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:13 pm

Quoting 815Oceanic (Reply 3):
IAD and EWR together make a lot of sense

To a p2p airline like WN or B6, sure.
For a network carrier like UA having two hubs is inherently problematic.

...in effect the hubs compete against each other almost as effectively as a competitor competes. You can't strengthen one without weakening the other.

Pu.

N1120A · Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:35 pm

Quoting fxramper (Reply 25):
Feds don't pay for tickets. It's a non rev write off.

That isn't true.

Freshside3 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 24):
Honestly, IAD does not have a huge connecting role in UA's network but serves the O&D traffic primarily.

People in the west and Midwest use it for connections....(1) to the small/medium markets throughout the east (2) to some international destinations that don't exist at ORD/IAH/SFO.
Plus, the UA network is the primary feed-in for ET's flight to ADD.

rtalk25 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 23):
The other role IAD serves is to partially address the big hole in UA's network, the southeast. UA now has two hubs on the edges of the southeast, IAH and IAD but none in the middle like DL's ATL or AA's CLT. Eliminating IAD would make the hole much larger.

I'm not really sure UA at IAD addresses this well. UA isn't running routes like TLH-IAD or AGS-IAD.

It is said that IAD's costs make UA more disadvantaged selling a domestic itinery like TYS-IAD-BOS over competitors that use lower cost hubs (e.g. CLT). DCA steals some nonstop O&D traffic away from IAD as well, making UA missing in action from routes like MEM-IAD.

On another note, I'm surprised that UA runs MDT-IAD and a few other short routes without any O&D. It doesn't run MDT-EWR or PHL-EWR likely because most will just take the Turnpike or Amtrak; UA might not want to dedicate EWR slot pairs understandably so.

PHL is a large market that might justify PHL-IAD connections but MDT is much smaller. I'd assume many from MDT/Central PA would likely drive 2 hours to Dulles if flying to Europe, or UA can send them via the ORD flight even though there is a backtrack, but east to ORD connections for Europe aren't that significant relative to the entire length of the trip. If one really wants less flights/connections, that pax would likely just drive to stay at a hotel the night before, and originate from the major airport within 2-3 hours away.

But I know some MDT fans are going to come out and have a number of reasons why this flight is needed.

[Edited 2015-09-26 15:48:09]

Cush · Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:20 pm

I agree with a lot of the above posters. I fly on UA quite a bit to Europe and dread when my connections are through EWR. I love IAD as it isn't bad for weather related delays, and far fewer congestion issues than EWR. i know the terminals are old and outdated, but it works!

DolphinAir747 · Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 26):
Washington DC is the nation's Capitol for crying out loud.

It's also a Top 10 metro area and the #! or #2 by wealth and education level.

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 30):
Plus, the UA network is the primary feed-in for ET's flight to ADD.

I doubt that counts for much. With all the Ethiopians in the DMV, ET can fill most of its flights with O+D traffic.

nyc2theworld · Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:02 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 6):
But also a "power play" of a different sort....basically to put the squeeze on the Flight Attendants, until the contract thing is settled. Keep in mind that IAD is a sub-UA base, while EWR is a sub-CO base. And also one of the reasons(if not the main reason)that they closed the SEA crew base, is to put the squeeze on them. There have been obviously some schedule reductions in IAD. Getting the contracts settled will lessen the chance of any further reductions.

IAD is a base (at least for FAs) for both groups. Has been for at least the past 3 years.

klwright69 · Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:24 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 6):
I think the only reason GRU is at IAD, is because, PanAm's gateway airports were JFK and MIA....and not that much hub feed. It made sense to move them elsewhere, to better fit the UA route structure. But IAD-GRU always struck me as odd.....never believed there was that much local traffic. IAD is not a "natural fit" for the Brazil market, in comparison to NYC airports, MIA, and even LAX.

I think GRU is a special case. I have heard that access to GRU is very limited. UA competes well with IAH, EWR, IAD, and ORD. UA confronts the competition with multiple gateways. I have also heard it is a more business destination. Again, if these routes were not important, I think they would already have been axed. UA served ACC, LOS, EZE, and DME from IAD. They are now long gone.

UA does serve southeastern destinations from IAD that are not served from EWR. Destinations like Morgantown, Charlottesville, and Columbia, South Carolina. So no it's not ATL or CLT, but it serves niche markets.

UA is clearly keeping IAD around for a reason. DCA is not the international gateway, and Washington DC is a key market.

I took LH to IAD and then on to DEN via UA. The terminal is not the newest but it's not that bad. I too get tired of this topic. I know an analyst has recommended UA close IAD as a hub. I think it's off base.

MWAAdude · Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:51 am

Based on conversations that MWAA have recently had with UA, they've indicated to us that they see the status quo remaining at IAD with some right-sizing on smaller RJ routes. They emphasized that EWR is wearing a leather belt and IAD is wearing gym-shorts with an elastic belt. However, this was all before Smisek left. UA expressed concern regarding he high costs that MWAA's debt burden incurs on IAD traffic, but MWAA is trying to work on that the best they can within the constraints of the current capital program. Read this as pushing C/D replacement out past 2030 barring a major event occurring.

DCA is a competitor to IAD, but it only has so much room to grow. Yeah, it's getting new facilities, but even with those, it's not going to add much capacity. Additionally, building those new DCA facilities will cost MWAA. This debt will likely show up on DCA tickets, although the new "debt sharing" measures being pushed might change some of this.

At this time we do not believe that DCMP will be a game changer for IAD. A slight increase in traffic might result, but it's not going to alter the domestic fortune of IAD, which is hurt due to the loss of price sensitive fliers in the area.

Also, I wouldn't be too surprised if the feds bonk UA at EWR for a couple of slots. It's definitely within the realm of possibility, although not likely.

B737900ER · Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 36):
pushing C/D replacement out past 2030

What's the point? China can build 10 new airports during that time. MWAA can't even replace the double wide trailers that pass as C/D, that should have been replaced 15 years ago. Now you're saying wait another 15 years? I would say UA is facility constrained at IAD more than anything else. 30 years operating out of a concourse that looks like it belongs in Honduras. And people wonder why UA doesn't grow there.

CALTECH · Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:14 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 25):
No one said it's going away.

Quoting fxramper (Reply 25):
Eventually, it will lose hub status and flights. New CEO should make that a priority.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
There has been a lot of talk that IAD will be eventually dehubbed.

That is exactly what this topic is about. A lot of folks and this topic keep saying IAD as a United hub will be shut down. Not going to happen. EWR and IAD are two different markets and United is doing well in both.

hoya · Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:57 pm

IAD is a major international connecting hub for UA. During the summer season, compare the capacity and frequency between IAD-FRA/MUC and EWR-FRA/MUC just to see how important IAD is to the LH/UA partnership.

IAD is also a major international O&D destination (BA and AF have sent the A380, LH flies the 748), and UA would be stupid to abandon the market, particularly with all the available diplomatic and U.S. government traffic (why KWI, BAH, and DXB exist, to support the U.S. government and U.S. contractors in the Middle East and Afghanistan).

Finally, the area around IAD keeps growing. Tysons Corner is one of the largest business centers on the east coast. Many companies have their HQs (like Volkswagen USA) or large offices along the Dulles Toll Road. While the Silver Line will make DCA more accessible for the area, it'll still be easier to get to IAD from Tysons (no transfer) once the line is completed. The area around IAD is also one of the wealthiest in the US.

avek00 · Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:26 am

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Over the past couple of years, UA has made many cost cutting efforts to be profitable. Two years ago, UA dehubbed CLE. There has been a lot of talk that IAD will be eventually dehubbed. There are several factors into play.

1. IAD was a main sub-UA hub to compete against with sub Co-EWR and US-PHL. Now post merger, EWR has taken away all the attention from IAD being within 200 miles from each other. All the focus seems to be on EWR to make it their East Coast powerhouse. They just shut down JFK to focus more attention on EWR. In the future it can be at the expense of IAD.

2. More of the DC local traffic prefer DCA. DCA is an AA hub and it is much closer to downtown Washington DC. IAD trails behind DCA and BWI.

3. Weak Connecting traffic. Besides transcend service, domestic flights are very limited to IAD. They cut the capacities from CLT and ATL and there is no more service to anywhere in South Florida.

4. The only main international flights that IAD has that EWR doesn't are DXB and KWI. Most of the time the loads on the 777 are very light and with tough competition from the ME3 they must be losing a ton of money on those routes. I can see using a 787-800 from EWR. Most of the time the PEK loads are very light as well and they can use their partner CA or 1 stop to other hubs.

5. UA's "Temporary" C and D concourse is very old, narrow and outdated. It was built back in the 80's as a temporary terminal and is a complete eye soar. While the other airlines concourse A and B are 'state of the art". If UA was interested in a long term presence at IAD they would of updated their concourse.

I think less of people who assert Dulles will be de-hubbed, and so should you:

1. Newark cannot replicate Dulles' hub mission as United's primary East coast connecting hub. In fact, even if it Newark had the spare capacity, the Newark hub's profitability would be negatively impacted by displacing O&D traffic for connections.

2. DCA is close to maxed out on its near-term growth potential. US and AA have done a great job leveraging DCA's "hub" ability, but going forward MWAA and American are focused more on improving the convenience of using DCA over, say, enabling another 100 daily departures. This means that Dulles will remain essential in offering service to/from our nation's capital.

3. The drawdown of various UA domestic flights at IAD has to do with: 1) Rise of LoCos and ULCCs in the DC market; and 2) the addition of key US destinations by various foreign air carriers such that offering longhaul connections via IAD became uncompetitive.

IAD - South Florida? The nonstop crowd flies American, or pays next to nothing to fly Frontier. The increase of longhaul operators at MIA is well documented on a.net, such that there's no need for anyone to interline with United over Dulles onto a IAD-MIA flight.

rtalk25 · Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:48 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 40):
IAD - South Florida? The nonstop crowd flies American, or pays next to nothing to fly Frontier. The increase of longhaul operators at MIA is well documented on a.net, such that there's no need for anyone to interline with United over Dulles onto a IAD-MIA flight.

I don't believe IAD will be de-hubbed, but that UA might cut more routes. As UA can't compete to So. Florida given the LCC competition at DCA and AA nonstop service, I've wondered how UA has been able to keep IAD-DFW given that AA, WN and VX fly DFW/DAL-DCA and DCA is preferred over IAD for O&D.

The DFW pax flying abroad on UA can transit via ORD, IAH or EWR in most scenarios. Is there some traffic flow that is sustaining UA on DFW-IAD that maybe works for DFW but doesn't work for MIA/FLL?

ATL is another market where DL would seem to have much more the advantage and UA the disadvantage, and there is LCC pressure from WN and F9, but ATL's distance's a bit more regional to IAD than those other routes.

klwright69 · Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:18 am

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 31):
I'm not really sure UA at IAD addresses this well. UA isn't running routes like TLH-IAD or AGS-IAD.

My aunt lives in Augusta, GA. She says AGS is not exactly a strong market. UA isn't missing out on much. She said AGS has had trouble keeping airlines other than US to CLT and DL to ATL. CO once served AGS. Didn't last.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 31):

I'm not really sure UA at IAD addresses this well. UA isn't running routes like TLH-IAD or AGS-IAD.

They are not trying to be in every market.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 41):
I don't believe IAD will be de-hubbed, but that UA might cut more routes. As UA can't compete to So. Florida given the LCC competition at DCA and AA nonstop service, I've wondered how UA has been able to keep IAD-DFW given that AA, WN and VX fly DFW/DAL-DCA and DCA is preferred over IAD for O&D.

Well IAD is still a hub for UA. That means they have frequent flyers, business travelers, and connecting traffic. Just because they aren't the leader in the market doesn't mean it doesn't work for them. There is also IAD-ATL. IAD is still an important hub. They still have to compete to major markets. That's what a hub does. UA still has LAX to MSP and DFW, and they still view these markets are important even though they are minor players.

N1120A · Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:18 am

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 35):

UA does serve southeastern destinations from IAD that are not served from EWR. Destinations like Morgantown, Charlottesville, and Columbia, South Carolina.

Well, EWR did have CAE

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 42):
My aunt lives in Augusta, GA. She says AGS is not exactly a strong market. UA isn't missing out on much. She said AGS has had trouble keeping airlines other than US to CLT and DL to ATL. CO once served AGS. Didn't last.

How would she know the relative strength? There certainly is a decent market there, between the military, locals and golf tourists.

dc10lover · Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:49 am

"My aunt lives in Augusta, GA. She says AGS is not exactly a strong market. UA isn't missing out on much. She said AGS has had trouble keeping airlines other than US to CLT and DL to ATL. CO once served AGS. Didn't last"

http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KAGS

Freshside3 · Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:25 am

Quoting B737900ER (Reply 8):
Really? They reduce entire stations as a negotiating tool for flight attendants? Really? I'd hate to see what they'd do to put the squeeze on pilots and mechanics!

There is also some "monkey business" going on with the SFO/LAX international schedules, too. Generally speaking, sub-UA Flight Attendants have not been trained for the 787, for the most part. As most of us know, some of the Pacific trips have been switched from 747/777 to 787, and been some shuffling around with the crews, as a result.

Sydscott · Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:34 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 45):
There is also some "monkey business" going on with the SFO/LAX international schedules, too. Generally speaking, sub-UA Flight Attendants have not been trained for the 787, for the most part. As most of us know, some of the Pacific trips have been switched from 747/777 to 787, and been some shuffling around with the crews, as a result.

Yup because those 787's, and some of 777's, are now crewed by PMCO crews who cost less than then PMUA crews. I have a couple of PMUA friends who used to be able to hold SYD out of LAX thanks to their Seniority, alas no more.

Freshside3 · Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:00 am

Quoting B737900ER (Reply 8):
Really? They reduce entire stations as a negotiating tool for flight attendants? Really? I'd hate to see what they'd do to put the squeeze on pilots and mechanics!

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 46):
Yup because those 787's, and some of 777's, are now crewed by PMCO crews who cost less than then PMUA crews. I have a couple of PMUA friends who used to be able to hold SYD out of LAX thanks to their Seniority, alas no more.

Exactly. And with this in mind, this shows the "big picture" of what's going on. Some people had thought the notion of equating the closing of the SEA flight base, being connected with the contracts, was ludicrous....but I think the SFO/LAX Dreamliner thing exposes this, at a different angle.

Getting back to the main subject, IAD.......no obvious danger to close/de-hub anytime soon......but the squeeze has been put on their inflight crews, too.... as in not as good of a schedule, compared to the past.

washingtonflyer · Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:40 am

I don't see how UA could or ever would give up IAD. Its their closest point to a southeast gateway, and handles cities that airports like IAH and EWR simply cannot.

On top of that, you simply cannot move or stuff enough capacity into EWR or ORD to replace what you would be giving up at IAD.

Finally, lets not forget that there are some big $$$ spenders at IAD who pick IAD for the non-stop options. The senior partner in my practice takes UA for all his long haul flying and much of that is in J class or purchased-in-advance F class (domestic).

commavia · Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:13 pm

As has been discussed at length in numerous past threads, I agree that IAD is at an extreme competitive disadvantage for just about anything inside the DCA perimeter because, as history has continued to show, what distinct market exists in NoVa and DC's western suburbs (and a market certainly exists) is simply no match for the core regional demand - particularly for premium traffic - that appears to consistently prefer DCA. IAD is, however, the dominant airport in the region when it comes to transcon and longhaul traffic, which is substantial owing to DC's market size and global economic, political and cultural connections.

As much, I continue to expect that United will do all it possible can to hang onto IAD, and that the carrier's operation there is likely going to settle at an operation similar to (although likely somewhat larger than) AA's JFK operation - with probably two very well defined longhaul departure/arrival banks (~1730 and 2130 outbound and ~0600 and 1500 inbound) and connections to probably 30-40 domestic/Canada cities timed specifically for those banks, with then a smattering of flights to select destinations (outside-DCA-perimeter transcon and hubs, mostly) outside those banks.

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