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clickhappy
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What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:54 pm

The article mentions "6-8 hour regional routes." Any chance Singapore will pass them to Scoot?

http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...bo-worth-airbus-is-set-to-find-out
 
tortugamon
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:23 pm

Quoting clickhappy (Thread starter):
The article mentions "6-8 hour regional routes." Any chance Singapore will pass them to Scoot?

If Scoot fits 375 in its 789s, how many seats would that be in a similarly equipped A380? Should be close to 800 I would suspect.

tortugamon
 
PEK777
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:10 am

162,000,000,000 of aluminum (assuming 60% of dry weight) would yield approximately 10,800,000,000 empty beer cans at 15g each. Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?


  
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:24 am

MH is hving difficulties shedding 2012-2013 model A380s - I would reckon a 2007 vintage model's value to be next to nothing in relative terms
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smokeybandit
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:03 am

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 2):
162,000,000,000 of aluminum (assuming 60% of dry weight) would yield approximately 10,800,000,000 empty beer cans at 15g each. Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?

Based on the scrap prices in the US, about 1.3 - 1.5 cents apiece.

Start drinking!
 
Viscount724
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:06 am

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 2):
162,000,000,000 of aluminum (assuming 60% of dry weight) would yield approximately 10,800,000,000 empty beer cans at 15g each. Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?

As far as I know, aircraft grade aluminum alloys can't be recycled for food or beverage purposes due to the mix of other metals involved.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:22 am

It is certainly going to be a watershed for the A380 when the first one comes off lease and needs a new operator (if the original operator renews the lease, no matter the terms, it will not be such a critical moment.) If a new operator does not step up, it will undoubtedly have a ripple effect throughout the industry, making new sales much more difficult. No matter how they structure it, the people who finance the planes will have to get their original investment back plus any profit they expect in the first lease, and those airlines that buy them will have to figure that they will have only scrap value when they stop flying them, no matter when that is. A lot of people are talking about how the A380 will be perfect for this route or that market, but nobody flying those routes or markets has stepped up and bought one. If, however, when the first 10 year old A380 hits the used market and someone snatches it up and goes on to make money with it, it will be a real boost for the program, as it will firmly establish that there is a second life for the birds. But I do not expect this to happen.
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nomadd22
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:26 am

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 2):
162,000,000,000 of aluminum (assuming 60% of dry weight) would yield approximately 10,800,000,000 empty beer cans at 15g each. Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?

162 billion what? milligrams?
Anon
 
PEK777
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:29 am

Quoting nomadd22 (Reply 7):

162 billion what? milligrams?

g .
 
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par13del
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:36 am

So the a/c comes off lease in 2017 and they want to talk about it now????, what is the lead time for financial houses getting their money printed / lined up for processing a new lease by a new airline to take an A380 coming off lease?
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:46 am

I was getting worried. Here it is almost becoming Tuesday now, and this week's A380 bashing thread hadn't started yet.

I think we made it, just in time.

But it seems like we a.nutters are getting slow.

Wish this thread a long and healthy career. Until Monday.
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DDR
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:49 am

I would imagine that if the aircraft were not profitable for the airline, we would have heard about it. My guess is that the airlines will simply renew the leases.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:55 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 11):
I would imagine that if the aircraft were not profitable for the airline, we would have heard about it. My guess is that the airlines will simply renew the leases.

If they do it will be at a much reduced rate, probably with a short notice return to the leaser clause.   
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phxa340
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:10 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 10):

And here I was getting worried that anytime you post a thread about the A380 it's automatically bashing it ... Not to mention the actual constructive conversation around actual news of an early adopter lease coming up.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 6):

I think your right, no matter how cheap they lessors can make the plane - I think secondary operators might still be wary of filling it on a regular basis profitably.
 
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rotating14
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:33 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 6):
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 14):
I think your right, no matter how cheap they lessors can make the plane - I think secondary operators might still be wary of filling it on a regular basis profitably.

Speaking of lessors, where does Amedeo fit into the post lease era? I am not convinced that they are going to take those birds. It'll be almost impossible to market a new A380 when you have used versions waiting around to be picked up.
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:48 am

I believe that indications are that the used market is soft for the A380 based on the fact that at least MH has been trying to lease or sell some of their fleet for a while; and it does not seem at this point there are any takers.

I don't see a freight conversion either.

On occasion NASA or other government/research organizations use a used large aircraft for a specific research application. There are a few 747's flying around with specialty payloads from astronomical observatories to weapons testing (where the space is needed for the equipment, or needed to provide the next level of development on a weapon system where components are larger than their final envisioned form). I would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 used A380s picked up for such purposes.

I wonder if any Museums would be interested?


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nomadd22
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:51 am

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 8):
Quoting nomadd22 (Reply 7):

162 billion what? milligrams?

g .

That would come to 167,000 tonnes. The 380 is a little less than that.
Anon
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:34 am

I have no idea what it will be valued at, and don't really care. I do hope to see some get taken up by an ULCC international carrier somewhere just to see what they can do with it. Perhaps also an intercontinental eco-tourist operation with staterooms on one floor and dining/lounge/theater rooms on the other. Fly into a central airport and do day tours, then return to the aircraft for a late dinner and bed before arriving at the new destination the next day.

Who knows? I'm just a little excited for some creativity.

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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:53 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 11):
I would imagine that if the aircraft were not profitable for the airline, we would have heard about it. My guess is that the airlines will simply renew the leases.

I don't have the link, but SQ have already stated they have been having issues filling the A380. The article stated they will take the new A380's already on order, but they didn't know if the leased aircraft (also totaling 5 aircraft) will be kept or returned to leasers.

I suspect the economics for scrapping some of the early birds could outweigh re-furbishing them and leasing them to an new operator.

Time will tell!
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:59 am

Quoting planesNTrains (Reply 19):
I'm just a little excited for some creativity

That's a lot to ask, in an industry whose basic mentality is Monkey see, monkey do cheaper.  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:07 am

Quoting bgm (Reply 15):
Mirror mirror, on the wall...

I see what you did there! LOL

Another A380 thread. hoy smokes I guess the Whale is officially the most popular Aircraft on Anet by the volume of threads and post it generates.

What will be the Used value of a A380? it depends on demand, and I think some operator will see how low it will get and will jump to get them in high density for the cheap, how cheap, my bet is less than 100 million, probably south of 80 million.

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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:52 am

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 12):
Quoting DDR (Reply 11):I would imagine that if the aircraft were not profitable for the airline, we would have heard about it. My guess is that the airlines will simply renew the leases.
If they do it will be at a much reduced rate, probably with a short notice return to the leaser clause.

A very likely outcome.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 20):
I don't have the link, but SQ have already stated they have been having issues filling the A380. The article stated they will take the new A380's already on order, but they didn't know if the leased aircraft (also totaling 5 aircraft) will be kept or returned to leasers.

I do remember the article, where SQ said they were still considering whether to renew the leases on the 5 oldest A380, or return them to the lessor. Much depended on the possibility of retrofitting improvements in efficiency to be applied on older aircraft.

I don't recall them saying they have trouble filling the A380. The fact that SQ were seriously considering renewing the leases on the older aircraft on top of adding 5 extra A380s rather sounds the opposite to me.
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:57 am

Re-Configuring the interior of early A380 will be very costly and their performance is not the best either, so any airline interested in A380s would be better off by going to Amadeo, than taking a used early model and changing the interior.

In the end the lease rate will adjust and the airline will keep flying it for 5-8 more years.
 
RickNRoll
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:55 am

I could be wrong but didn't we already have this thread about ten times?
 
tcyvr
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:12 am

Just curious will the A380 work as a freighter if converted?
 
RickNRoll
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:20 am

Quoting tcyvr (Reply 26):
Just curious will the A380 work as a freighter if converted?

According to the other ten threads, no.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:11 am

A free A380 is an insanely good value proposition, so I think they will be placed eventually. The only question is at what lease/purchase rate?

That rate will tell us a lot about market appetite for A380's, and will certainly impact the NEO calculus. Money for gas and money for planes are fungible, so the lease rate will tell us what level of efficiency delta would make an a380 attractive. The bad news for Airbus is that this number will probably be higher than what can be achieved with a NEO.

But still, there's no way used A380's get parked in the desert as TC once said - that was pure leverage propaganda for his lessors. Somebody will be use these birds just as many used 747's long after their cash operating costs were uncompetitive.
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:25 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 11):
My guess is that the airlines will simply renew the leases.

Singapore has already seen it's market share bing nibbled to death by a thousand cuts, no wonder they're ehading more towards the large twins. They acknowledge the A380 is a little too big for their current operation I think?
Singapore are still atking brand new A333s off the Toulouse line as they retire almost new A333s in Changi. They have no issues about fleet rollover whatsoever. Unless the lease terms are favourable to SQ, I suspectt he temptation will be to hand the early build heavier A380s back and backfill wirth smaller twins and new build lighter A388s.

Only major airlines with engineering cover to match have ordered the A380, many taxpayer funded. Taking on such a huge aircraft might put a second tier airline out of business very quickly. I cannot think of a likely candidate.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:41 am

Quoting tcyvr (Reply 24):
Just curious will the A380 work as a freighter if converted?

The cost of the conversion program is the issue, more than any operating economics. 748F has a rough time selling frames and its "paid for". A380CF would need a billion or more spent for conversion and certification just to enter a tough market.
 
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Revelation
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:46 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 22):
Re-Configuring the interior of early A380 will be very costly and their performance is not the best either, so any airline interested in A380s would be better off by going to Amadeo, than taking a used early model and changing the interior.

That's the main advantage of leasing: you pay extra for the flexibility of being able to walk away at the end of the lease period. These days a 10 year old interior is already a candidate for replacement, and being able to walk away from increasing maintenance costs and starting over with a fresh frame must be very tempting.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 22):
In the end the lease rate will adjust and the airline will keep flying it for 5-8 more years.

That could happen but the interesting point the article raises is how low will that adjustment take the rate, and what impact does that have on the future of the A380 program?

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 27):
Singapore are still atking brand new A333s off the Toulouse line as they retire almost new A333s in Changi. They have no issues about fleet rollover whatsoever. Unless the lease terms are favourable to SQ, I suspectt he temptation will be to hand the early build heavier A380s back and backfill wirth smaller twins and new build lighter A388s.

Only major airlines with engineering cover to match have ordered the A380, many taxpayer funded. Taking on such a huge aircraft might put a second tier airline out of business very quickly. I cannot think of a likely candidate.

I agree on both points. SQ hinted they might be interested in a 2 year extension at the right price, but beyond that it seems they're quite happy to cycle out the old frames. It's hard to see how the usual 2nd tier users can take on an A380. Even after our threads I can't think of any plausible candidate.
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jsfr
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 2):
Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?

An empty beer can is not worth anything  
 
georgiaame
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:14 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 2):
Any of the experts know how much is an empty beer can worth?

Please don't quote me on this, but I believe you can get 5 cents (possibly as much as 10 cents) for bottle/can return in Vermont, Michigan, California. (I don't drink soft drinks, so I only vaguely remember the return value and the States.) Assuming 5 cents for the return, that's either $540million per aircraft (if I did the exponents correctly) or $54million in returns if I didn't. Plus it save the planet in global heating to manufacture the aluminum, reduces the carbon footprint, and is green and sustainable. If I lived in Vermont, I would certainly consider taking one. Oh, I flew in a Korean 380 recently. Absolutely no big deal. It wasn't as quiet as I was expecting, it was comfortable, but I'll take a new 748 any day over the 380. Coke anyone?
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tb727
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:20 pm

Quoting georgiaame (Reply 31):
Please don't quote me on this, but I believe you can get 5 cents (possibly as much as 10 cents) for bottle/can return in Vermont, Michigan, California.

10 cents here in Michigan, bring it here!
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fanofjets
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:13 pm

As a collector's item (e.g., on eBay), it all depends on how popular the Whale is at a given moment and how much one is willing to pay....
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frmrCapCadet
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:40 pm

Quoting tb727 (Reply 32):
10 cents here in Michigan, bring it here!

No arbitrage allowed. Cans are generally printed with the refund info on them.
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PlaneAdmirer
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:49 pm

Does anyone actually know that the lessors will get their money back plus a return based on the 10 year lease terms? Normally some of the value to the lessor is in the residual value.

If the lease payments fully paid off the plane in 10 years, one would think the airline would just as well as buy it and keep whatever the remaining value is.
 
cschleic
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:06 pm

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 34):
Quoting tb727 (Reply 32):
10 cents here in Michigan, bring it here!

No arbitrage allowed. Cans are generally printed with the refund info on them.

In a post office truck? Don't tell Newman and Kramer.
 
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:26 pm

the first one retired should be bought by the UN. They could use as a disaster relief ship. Upper deck emergency shelter, lower deck hospital and kitchens. Just a small hope.
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tb727
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting cschleic (Reply 36):
In a post office truck? Don't tell Newman and Kramer.

You'll have to wait until Mother's Day!
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Stitch
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:44 pm

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 35):
Does anyone actually know that the lessors will get their money back plus a return based on the 10 year lease terms? Normally some of the value to the lessor is in the residual value.

The Doric leases sold via Nimrod Capital LLC do recover the entire costs from the lease rates. So if they re-lease, re-sell or scrap the frame at the end of the term, that is all "bonus" that is distributed to the investors.
 
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speedbird707
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:16 pm

Ok, I will admit up front that I am not an financial analyst...but having said that, here is my question...

An A380 is operating with 375 - 400 pax...plus how many Flight Attendants, 10 or 15?, plus fuel to power four big engines...

how can that be economical compared to an A350 or B777 (note no bias in the question   )...that can operate with similar pax loads, on two engines, and potentially fewer Flight Attendants per flight...?
 
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Stitch
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting speedbird707 (Reply 40):
here is my question...

An A380 operating at a similar passenger load to an A350-1000 or 777-300ER would be configured with large premium cabins so it would be generating a fair bit more revenue per flight to cover those higher costs. The A35K / 77W, on the other hand, would be mostly Economy seats to fit that many people inside so while it would be cheaper to operate, the revenues would be lower, as well.
 
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Clipper101
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:58 pm

Quoting speedbird707 (Reply 40):
An A380 is operating with 375 - 400 pax...plus how many Flight Attendants, 10 or 15?, plus fuel to power four big engines...

how can that be economical compared to an A350 or B777 (note no bias in the question   )...that can operate with similar pax loads, on two engines, and potentially fewer Flight Attendants per flight...?

As with any airliner, A380 economical theory comes from the notion of how many pax an airline will be able to fill it with: currently A380's are operating with a range from 410 up to 615 pax, so you can get an idea.

Taking EK as a model, its A380 can need up to 24 cabin crew to seve it
 
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kanban
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:33 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
An A380 operating at a similar passenger load to an A350-1000 or 777-300ER would be configured with large premium cabins so it would be generating a fair bit more revenue per flight to cover those higher costs

The question would be: Are they filling the premium seats enough to make a difference, or are they mainly filling economy seats?
 
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rotating14
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:36 pm

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N12540K20151005

This came across the news wire yesterday.
 
chiki
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:45 pm

How about the VIP market, will it not make any sense with a second hand aircraft, though fitting will still be costly.
 
apfpilot
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:47 pm

I would imagine that if the airframe as a whole isn't worth much the parts that have multiple applications would add up to quite a bit. All of the actuators, servos, pumps, switches etc...
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JetBuddy
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:48 pm

If we end up with a situation of a couple of dozen used A380s that nobody wants in full pax config, I do believe a conversion program will be started. Both to combi and full freighter models. And yes I know about the issues with this, but it's not impossible.

Either way I don't think they'll have a problem selling the frames. They'll go on the market relatively cheap anyway. The intitial lease period of 8-12 years usually has more than paid for the aircraft. Any money left over from a sale is usually profit.
 
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par13del
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:49 pm

Quoting chiki (Reply 45):
How about the VIP market, will it not make any sense with a second hand aircraft, though fitting will still be costly.

We had another thread on a Kuwait 744 in Dallas being refitted, I was shocked that the two year time span was the norm, that's a 744 imagine an A380, I'm not even thinking about the cost.
 
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Polot
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RE: What's A Used A380 Superjumbo Worth?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:16 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 47):
If we end up with a situation of a couple of dozen used A380s that nobody wants in full pax config, I do believe a conversion program will be started. Both to combi and full freighter models. And yes I know about the issues with this, but it's not impossible.

I imagine if there is a couple of dozen used A380s that nobody wants they will see the scrapper, not a freighter conversion.

Expensive to design and certify a conversion for the A380 even with a couple of dozen, and the large freighter market is not as robust as it use to be (note the disappointment of the 744 converted freighter, and the fact that Boeing is struggling to sell white tail 748Fs) as airlines shut down/downsize their dedicated freighter divisions because modern passenger wide bodies are such great cargo carriers to begin with.

Not to mention that a A380F is going to need dedicated ground equipment, which limits its appeal for ACMI operators.

Quoting par13del (Reply 48):
We had another thread on a Kuwait 744 in Dallas being refitted, I was shocked that the two year time span was the norm, that's a 744 imagine an A380, I'm not even thinking about the cost.

I think a big problem for potential VIP conversion is finding a place able to outfit the A380. IIRC most of the major companies are already pretty booked to begin with, and the A380 size limits who can handle it (can't really take it to a small company with only a small hangar).

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