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flyaa757
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DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:35 am

In browsing the DL schedules for next summer, yes, I know they are not final, but, some interesting observations...

- 767-300ERs seem to have every single frame scheduled. Not practical/possible.
- The summer schedule would require 35 A333s....more than in the fleet/on order
- A332s very under scheduled.
- B764s also somewhat under scheduled...about 15 frames.

Thinking longer term...

- I'm still surprised Delta chose the A359. It is too big. Expect a similar confit - The A333 seats 293 - 34/259 vs 36/172 or 26/200.
- Does it really make sense to replace the 763ERs 1 for 1?
- Is it possible to NOT replace the 767s 1 for 1? The vast majority of 767ER routes are 1x daily...
- I'm still unconvinced of the 767A replacement plans...seating 261...think we will see something formal about ER airplane returning to domestic.
- SQ 772s to replace the remaining 744s? Hmmm...
- Why 4 more Intl 757s when the existing airplanes aren't fully utilized? Must be more than RDU-CDG!
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:08 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):

Just the other day, I heard an employee say they were told that the 747s would now be flying until 2024. Not sure how much credit you can give to it, but it would change some of your theory, somewhat.
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flyDTW1992
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:32 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
I'm still surprised Delta chose the A359. It is too big.

It's a 747 replacement, so I don't think I agree with you there. 25 A359s to replace 18 744s primarily on Asia routes. Plenty of people saw 77Ws as a highly possible 747 replacement, and were surprised at them choosing the smaller A359. The 330neos are supposed to take over some 763 flying on Atlantic routes, which makes sense on some growing routes, whereas on a 1 to 1 basis I think you're right, it'll be interesting to see what smaller widebody turns out to be the definitive 763 replacement.
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adamblang
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:34 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
Thinking longer term...

Is this your speculation or are you reading this somewhere? (I'm not an avid widget head so I don't have a sense of speculation vs. fact.)

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
some interesting observations...

It wouldn't be surprised if 333s and 763s are placeholders for 332s and 764s that the scheduling folks will swap in at a later date.
 
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:36 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
Why 4 more Intl 757s when the existing airplanes aren't fully utilized?

Ships 6901-6904 are the ETOPS 757's that typically fly west coast - Hawaii. They are retiring very soon. Some of the movement in the 757 fleet is to replace these with younger ETOPS aircraft. I also have heard the 5 ex-Shanghai 757's that DL recently acquired are slated to be the Japan inter-port aircraft, based in Japan. This move will free up the 5600 series aircraft and move them back stateside.
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michman
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:54 am

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 2):
25 A359s to replace 18 744s primarily on Asia routes

There were only ever 16 NW/DL 744's.
 
flyDTW1992
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting michman (Reply 5):
There were only ever 16 NW/DL 744's.

Oops, off by 2. I must've been thinking of the 777 fleet with the 18.
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northwestEWR
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:22 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- 767-300ERs seem to have every single frame scheduled. Not practical/possible.
- The summer schedule would require 35 A333s....more than in the fleet/on order
- A332s very under scheduled.
- B764s also somewhat under scheduled...about 15 frames.

That will balance out. We're still over 6 months from the summer schedule.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- I'm still surprised Delta chose the A359. It is too big. Expect a similar confit - The A333 seats 293 - 34/259 vs 36/172 or 26/200.

It will be more than the A330-300 at 293 and less than the 747-400 at 376. There is certainly a place for something that size in the Delta fleet. I'd almost argue they could use something 747-400 sized in a limited (similar to now) quantity.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- Does it really make sense to replace the 763ERs 1 for 1?

Yes. The 763s do a lot of flying that can't really be replaced by anything less capable and they won't want to cut smaller longhaul routes so in that sense, yes it will make sense to replace them close to 1/1. However I'm sure, like with all things, there will be some shuffling and upgauging/downgauging. I expect us to actually take on more aircraft of the 767 size rather than less.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- Is it possible to NOT replace the 767s 1 for 1? The vast majority of 767ER routes are 1x daily...

And if we didn't replace them near 1-1, we'd have to cut routes. That's generally a bad thing. Expect to see more 767 sized routes in the future and more airplanes in this size category.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- I'm still unconvinced of the 767A replacement plans...seating 261...think we will see something formal about ER airplane returning to domestic.

This will happen eventually.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- SQ 772s to replace the remaining 744s? Hmmm...

It's possible and there are certainly rumors going around about that happening. We shall see.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- Why 4 more Intl 757s when the existing airplanes aren't fully utilized? Must be more than RDU-CDG!

As someone else has pointed out, they're replacing airplanes that are retiring. The Ex-ATA 757s currently fly ETOPS missions and are retiring (thankfully) this fall.

Quoting mayor (Reply 1):
Just the other day, I heard an employee say they were told that the 747s would now be flying until 2024. Not sure how much credit you can give to it, but it would change some of your theory, somewhat.

At this point, I'd be surprised--the fleet winddown has already started and crews are being moved to other aircraft. As much as I'd love to see the Queen stick around, I think her days are numbered.

Quoting B757Forever (Reply 4):
Ships 6901-6904 are the ETOPS 757's that typically fly west coast - Hawaii. They are retiring very soon. Some of the movement in the 757 fleet is to replace these with younger ETOPS aircraft. I also have heard the 5 ex-Shanghai 757's that DL recently acquired are slated to be the Japan inter-port aircraft, based in Japan. This move will free up the 5600 series aircraft and move them back stateside.

  
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goboeing
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:41 am

There is a rumor on another forum of 12 757s coming out of the desert, and not the NBA ones.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:53 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 7):
That will balance out. We're still over 6 months from the summer schedule.

   Equipment is always unclear this far in advance.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- I'm still surprised Delta chose the A359. It is too big. Expect a similar confit - The A333 seats 293 - 34/259 vs 36/172 or 26/200.

I think it will be a less dense config than the 333 (or 339) -- these aircraft will be flying long Pacific routes where DL will need a bit more premium seating (and the associated revenue). I'd expect a configuration closer to the density of the 332.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- Does it really make sense to replace the 763ERs 1 for 1?
- Is it possible to NOT replace the 767s 1 for 1? The vast majority of 767ER routes are 1x daily...

Don't forget that DL has 787-8s currently scheduled for delivery in 2020. Lots of people think these will never happen. I'm not sure why. They'd provide a lower-trip-cost alternative to the 339 for thinner TATL routes currently served by 767s.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- I'm still unconvinced of the 767A replacement plans...seating 261...think we will see something formal about ER airplane returning to domestic.

Delta still has lots and lots of 737-900ERs and A321s yet to arrive. There's nothing in the 763's current schedule that can't be replaced with more frequency.

I think it's more likely that 767-300ERs in the current high-density international config will fly a domestic route, particularly a transcon, here and there to give a lie-flat option.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- SQ 772s to replace the remaining 744s? Hmmm...

That would be a very short-term investment, which is why I don't necessarily believe the rumor. Those SQ 772s are not low-usage birds -- their remaining life is limited. Maybe if they need a short-term bridge to the 787-10 or an additional A350 order, the used 772s could be an option.
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:12 am

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- Why 4 more Intl 757s when the existing airplanes aren't fully utilized? Must be more than RDU-CDG!

Well, there is also JFK-KEF
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FoxBravo
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:38 pm

Delta frequently (more often than not, in my experience) uses placeholders and then changes to the actual equipment about 90 days out. Sometimes they even change more than once. So there are likely a lot of placeholders in the summer schedule--I wouldn't read too much into it.
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flyaa757
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:47 pm

Some very interesting topics here:

- Agree they are using 763 and 333 as place holders. Not sure why though...

- Interesting point on the Shanghai 757s. Makes a lot of sense for them to go to interport and convert the 75As to 75Hs to replace 75Vs.

- There are 57 767ER's that will eventually need to be replaced. I just don't see these being replaced, even by displaced A333s/B764s. The A339s are too big, as are the A359s.

- It seems the role for the A332 isn't really needed by DL now. The HGW A333s have the range and lower CASM. I'd guess these will be used to directly-ish replace the first 10 767ERs to go. Probably longest 767 routes - ATL-LOS/LAX-CDG etc.

- The one route I don't see frequency replacing the 763A's is ATL-LAX. Peak day is already 12x, including 4 763As+ 1 767ER. Additional frequencies don't really do much.

All in all, I'd argue DL is currently really short of widebody capacity, at least until the A359s show up.
 
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:53 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
That would be a very short-term investment, which is why I don't necessarily believe the rumor. Those SQ 772s are not low-usage birds -- their remaining life is limited. Maybe if they need a short-term bridge to the 787-10 or an additional A350 order, the used 772s could be an option.

How about EK, surely with so many aircraft on order they have a few extra 777s...
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:09 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 12):
- Agree they are using 763 and 333 as place holders. Not sure why though...

If they revenue manage to a smaller aircraft then there will not be as much traffic as would be necessary to upgrade back to a larger plane. Better to fool the RevMan system into opening more seats and then see if there is enough traffic for the larger aircraft at decision time.
 
dare100em
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:13 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 12):
There are 57 767ER's that will eventually need to be replaced. I just don't see these being replaced, even by displaced A333s/B764s. The A339s are too big, as are the A359s.

They very probably will be one of the first or even launch customer of the Boeing MOM.
 
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:23 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
- SQ 772s to replace the remaining 744s? Hmmm...

I would not see that happening as even though SQ turns frames over in less than 10 years they are generally not in great condition--particularly with corrosion control. As an example, when NW purchased two 747-200's they spent months in the hangar in HKG being rebuilt. Both ships had major structural issues that required millions of dollars worth of work.

I could see DL kicking the tires on some EK 772ER's or some A330's.

As far as replacing the 767 on a one-for-one basis, I would remind my fellow a.netters that the airplane is still being built new. Maybe Boeing would consider a 767neo--new engines, composite airframe, upgraded avionics. I would think it would be a very popular airplane.
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
B764s also somewhat under scheduled...about 15 frames

I count 17:

MSP-LHR
DTW-LHR
DTW-FRA
DTW-MUC
ATL-LIM
ATL-LHR x2
ATL-MAD
ATL-CDG x2
JFK-GRU (two frames)
JFK-MAD
JFK-NCE
JFK-FRA
JFK-VCE
BOS-AMS

Interestingly, I think that if ATL-GRU and ATL-GIG were moved from 333 back to 764 for the summer season, both the 764 fleet and the 333 fleet would be capable of handling the schedule. I agree that quite a bit may change before the summer arrives, though.

How many 333s will DL have by June?
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:58 pm

Quoting dare100em (Reply 15):
They very probably will be one of the first or even launch customer of the Boeing MOM.

That would be interesting. I wonder about timing though. I'm sure RA and the Delta fleet planners have more insight than I do, but when would a MOM plane become available?
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a380787
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:07 pm

the only minor issue i see in the long term fleet strategy is that SEA-Asia is already thin as it is, and any further expansion would be into even thinner territory. Since 339 are mostly Atlantic and 359 are mostly Pacific, that would be a bit too big of a plane for many potential SEA-Asia opportunities.

Right now the thin routes are done by the 763 but we can't expect those to stick around forever, and there doesn't seem to have a proper successor in their order book for thin SEA-Asia.

With a small enough plane, routes like MSP/JFK-PVG can possible come online.
 
bobnwa
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:13 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
Does it really make sense to replace the 763ERs 1 for 1?

I don't believe Delta ever said that !!
 
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OA412
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:14 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 12):
Agree they are using 763 and 333 as place holders. Not sure why though...

They've done similar things in the past. They're still working out the summer schedule, so they're using these as "dummy" equipment until the schedules are finalized. In fact, most airlines do something similar. If you look at UA domestic schedules around 6 months or more out, they're almost always scheduled as A319/A320, then change to other equipment closer in.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 12):
There are 57 767ER's that will eventually need to be replaced. I just don't see these being replaced, even by displaced A333s/B764s. The A339s are too big, as are the A359s.

Not necessarily. Many airlines are moving toward higher capacity, hence the 77W at AA and the move toward the A321/B739 at many airlines over the A320/B738. I also think DL isn't yet finished with their widebody ordering. We could definitely see a 788/789 order as well.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 16):
I would not see that happening as even though SQ turns frames over in less than 10 years they are generally not in great condition--particularly with corrosion control.

Indeed. In the early 2000's, there were reports on here that DL looked at some secondhand SQ 772's and passed because they were really young, but not in great condition. How true that is, I don't know, but it did make the rounds on here from fairly credible people.
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flyDTW1992
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:18 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 19):
With a small enough plane, routes like MSP/JFK-PVG can possible come online.

That's WAY outside the MOM/NMA's projected range, though. Those routes are 788 territory. And those would be cargo-heavy routes too which would benefit from having more belly room.
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a380787
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:23 pm

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 22):

That's WAY outside the MOM/NMA's projected range, though. Those routes are 788 territory. And those would be cargo-heavy routes too which would benefit from having more belly room.

That's what I was referring to - 788/789. With the MU partnership, filling a 788 shouldn't be too hard, but both routes will be a bit challenging even for 338.
 
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compensateme
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:24 pm

Keep in mind that while these types of threads are "fun" for a.net enthusiasts, airlines' fleet strategies change annually, adjusted to the carriers' competitive position and the economic climate. For example, with intercontinental travel forecasted by many to be soft next year (the Dollar's expected to overtake the Euro in value for the first time in 14 years), DL could choose to send a handful of older 763/ER into early retirement. If the domestic market remained hot, DL could instead choose to re-position a handful of newer 763/ER into the domestic market.

But trying to determine a finite fleet plan or strategy is fruitless.
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flyaa757
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:57 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 17):
Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):B764s also somewhat under scheduled...about 15 frames
I count 17:
Quoting FSDan (Reply 17):
Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):B764s also somewhat under scheduled...about 15 frames
I count 17:

You're right - my point was about the whole fleet, not just the 764s. Looking closely, peak summer day(eg 7/1), it looks to me with the 2 new route additions, the following are required for the schedule:

58 76ER
17 B764
33 A333
19 75ER
06 A332
07 B744
Full B777

I don't know how many A333 are scheduled for delivery before the summer, but there are only 24 currently in house with 7 on order. In total, fleet seems over-scheduled.
 
B757Forever
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:10 pm

Quoting goboeing (Reply 8):

There is a rumor on another forum of 12 757s coming out of the desert, and not the NBA ones.

This is true. The "keeper" fleet is being expanded. Some aircraft previously slated to retire will be getting new interiors and staying in the fleet.
The Rolls Royce Dart. Noise = Shaft Horsepower.
 
tinpusher007
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:39 pm

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 22):
That's WAY outside the MOM/NMA's projected range, though. Those routes are 788 territory. And those would be cargo-heavy routes too which would benefit from having more belly room.

im kind of baffled by the fact that DL hasn't launched JFK-PVG already. MSP-PVG could be 788 territory sure. But NYC is home to largest Chinese population outside of China, in addition to being the largest city in the US and Shanghai being the largest city in the world. It seems to me that it could easily take a 744 for now and then something of similar size from DL once those are parked.
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delimit
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:17 pm

They codeshare with MU on the route currently.
 
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northwestEWR
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:31 pm

Quoting goboeing (Reply 8):
There is a rumor on another forum of 12 757s coming out of the desert, and not the NBA ones.

Are these different than the 757s they recently announced wouldn't be retired? I'm not sure there are aircraft in the desert that are worth bringing back out. I'll have to look.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
I think it will be a less dense config than the 333 (or 339) -- these aircraft will be flying long Pacific routes where DL will need a bit more premium seating (and the associated revenue). I'd expect a configuration closer to the density of the 332.

It will definitely be the most premium heavy aircraft in the fleet. Delta is designing a completely new product for the A350 and from what I've seen/heard, it's going to be outstanding and people will be surprised by the changes. Looking forward to that going public.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
Don't forget that DL has 787-8s currently scheduled for delivery in 2020. Lots of people think these will never happen. I'm not sure why. They'd provide a lower-trip-cost alternative to the 339 for thinner TATL routes currently served by 767s.

787s are happening. There's no way around them.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
I think it's more likely that 767-300ERs in the current high-density international config will fly a domestic route, particularly a transcon, here and there to give a lie-flat option.

It will also fill that role but eventually some 763s will head to domestic duty.

Quoting mayor (Reply 10):
Well, there is also JFK-KEF

I believe this is going back to the 753 for the summer schedule so that may help.

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 12):
- It seems the role for the A332 isn't really needed by DL now. The HGW A333s have the range and lower CASM. I'd guess these will be used to directly-ish replace the first 10 767ERs to go. Probably longest 767 routes - ATL-LOS/LAX-CDG etc.

They could certainly use the extra lift on heavy routes like ATL-LOS. That is already payload restricted on heavy days.

Quoting enilria (Reply 14):
If they revenue manage to a smaller aircraft then there will not be as much traffic as would be necessary to upgrade back to a larger plane. Better to fool the RevMan system into opening more seats and then see if there is enough traffic for the larger aircraft at decision time.

  

Quoting dare100em (Reply 15):
They very probably will be one of the first or even launch customer of the Boeing MOM.

I'm not sure they can wait that long. I believe we'll need 787s either way and those are available a lot sooner.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 16):
I could see DL kicking the tires on some EK 772ER's or some A330's.

It would make sense but I don't think the bad blood between Delta and EK would ever allow it.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 16):
As far as replacing the 767 on a one-for-one basis, I would remind my fellow a.netters that the airplane is still being built new. Maybe Boeing would consider a 767neo--new engines, composite airframe, upgraded avionics. I would think it would be a very popular airplane.

That's either the 787 or MOM and there will be a place for both at Delta.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 21):
I also think DL isn't yet finished with their widebody ordering.

They haven't finished their widebody order. I can tell you that.

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 22):
That's WAY outside the MOM/NMA's projected range, though. Those routes are 788 territory. And those would be cargo-heavy routes too which would benefit from having more belly room.

   Perfect 788 routes.

Quoting B757Forever (Reply 26):
This is true. The "keeper" fleet is being expanded. Some aircraft previously slated to retire will be getting new interiors and staying in the fleet.

  
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DTWPurserBoy
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 29):
They haven't finished their widebody order. I can tell you that.

Are they waiting for a downturn in the industry or a good deal on pricing? Or is it simply that they only need them as a follow-on order.

DL is always price sensitive.
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northwestEWR
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:21 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 30):
Are they waiting for a downturn in the industry or a good deal on pricing? Or is it simply that they only need them as a follow-on order.

Good question. I'm not entirely sure what they're waiting for but I suspect that they're going to hold off as long as possible to preserve capital. There's not a lot of point in ordering something soon if you don't need it right away.

I expect they will order a substantial number of 787s to replace the 763ER but they don't need to do it yet. They can continue to fly the 763ER for a few more years.
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flyabr
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:38 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 31):
I expect they will order a substantial number of 787s to replace the 763ER

Based on DL management comments in the past few years, I'll be shocked if the 788 ever shows up in the fleet. When the time comes I suspect there'll be more A330NEOs ordered to replace some of the 763ERs (not on a one for one basis). But stranger things have happened so we'll see I guess!
 
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:42 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 10):
Well, there is also JFK-KEF

They have been using the B757-300's on this route.
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xdlx
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:19 am

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 13):

Allways thought DL would go for the 773 that EK is retiring
 
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:50 am

With respect to DL's 744s, I would agree with permanently withdrawing the oldest ones (661-670) but I think the newest ones (671-676) could be useful into the 2020s. I wonder if DL plans to make those particular airframes available to other airlines if they stick to their original plan of withdrawing them all within the next couple of years...
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jetjack74
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:56 am

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 13):
How about EK, surely with so many aircraft on order they have a few extra 777s...
Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 29):
It would make sense but I don't think the bad blood between Delta and EK would ever allow it.
Quoting xdlx (Reply 34):
Allways thought DL would go for the 773 that EK is retiring

I don't think EK will allow any of their aircraft they're retiring to fall into someone else's hands. Whn they retire them, that's it, they're going to the scrapper, not to another airline
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Okcflyer
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:02 am

767A will ultimately be replaced with A321s / 739s
 
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northwestEWR
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:26 am

Quoting flyabr (Reply 32):
Based on DL management comments in the past few years, I'll be shocked if the 788 ever shows up in the fleet. When the time comes I suspect there'll be more A330NEOs ordered to replace some of the 763ERs (not on a one for one basis). But stranger things have happened so we'll see I guess!

The problem with that theory is that the A330NEO is too large to replace the 767-300ER. They'll end up being right around 290 seats just like the current A330-300s. That's a LOT more airplane, both in seats and in weight than the 767s.

They need something smaller and the only option is the 787. United and American have both already figured that out and pulled the trigger. Delta will do the same but they're going to bide their time and squeeze all the life out of the 763 they can.
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flyabr
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:46 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 38):
They need something smaller and the only option is the 787. United and American have both already figured that out and pulled the trigger.

With the A339 already ordered, I think the A338 has a better chance of entering the DL fleet vs the 788. If DL had chosen the 789 over the A359 in the last campaign I'd probably be more willing to place a bet on the 788. As it stands now I'm highly skeptical that the 787 will ever see the light of day at DL.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:40 am

Quoting flyabr (Reply 39):
With the A339 already ordered, I think the A338 has a better chance of entering the DL fleet vs the 788. If DL had chosen the 789 over the A359 in the last campaign I'd probably be more willing to place a bet on the 788

Don't forget that pricing was a big part of why the 339/359 were more attractive for this order than the 789. DL's price on the existing 788 order has nothing to do with the price it was offered on 789s, and has been a matter of some speculation and disagreement. But if (as I suspect) the 788 price is quite low, then it would be silly of DL not to take the aircraft.

[Edited 2015-10-06 22:41:01]
 
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77west
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:10 am

Quoting jetjack74 (Reply 36):
I don't think EK will allow any of their aircraft they're retiring to fall into someone else's hands. Whn they retire them, that's it, they're going to the scrapper, not to another airline

If they are leased, I am not sure EK has much say in where they go on lease expiry and return to lessor.
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flyDTW1992
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:11 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 40):
But if (as I suspect) the 788 price is quite low, then it would be silly of DL not to take the aircraft.

I agree. Especially looking forward, once the 747s and 767s, and eventually 777s, are gone, a 3-type widebody fleet of A330s, A350s, and 787s--all with Trent engines--could be a very sleek fleet makeup.
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goboeing
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:29 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 29):
Are these different than the 757s they recently announced wouldn't be retired? I'm not sure there are aircraft in the desert that are worth bringing back out. I'll have to look.

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bobnwa
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:25 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 29):
They haven't finished their widebody order. I can tell you that.

Are you saying that you have insider info about future Delta orders? Where is your info coming from?
 
delimit
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:54 pm

Quoting jetjack74 (Reply 36):
I don't think EK will allow any of their aircraft they're retiring to fall into someone else's hands. Whn they retire them, that's it, they're going to the scrapper, not to another airline

You think EK is going to trash hundreds of millions of dollars of airframes rather than sell them? Seriously?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 40):
But if (as I suspect) the 788 price is quite low, then it would be silly of DL not to take the aircraft.

Is there any reason for the price to be low though? It's the least popular of the variants, but its all the same line. The price of the 789 and 78J are going to keep the 788 price higher than current sales would justify.
 
FSDan
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:01 pm

Quoting delimit (Reply 45):
Is there any reason for the price to be low though? It's the least popular of the variants, but its all the same line. The price of the 789 and 78J are going to keep the 788 price higher than current sales would justify.

At some point DL deferred their order by a few years, no? If I'm remembering that correctly, they may have received a great deal from Boeing for freeing up some earlier delivery slots so Boeing could catch up on some of the backlog created by the initial 787 delays.
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VictorKilo
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:41 pm

Quoting FlyAA757 (Reply 25):
You're right - my point was about the whole fleet, not just the 764s. Looking closely, peak summer day(eg 7/1), it looks to me with the 2 new route additions, the following are required for the schedule:

58 76ER
17 B764
33 A333
19 75ER
06 A332
07 B744
Full B777

The 6 332 aircraft are allocated to three long, thin routes. DTW-PEK/NGO and SEA-HKG are all between 6500 and 6700 miles in length - longer than a 76ER can operate. Last summer the remaining 332's were sent on SEA-PEK/PVG to bridge aircraft between SEA and DTW. DL will have to add 332 flights to bridge between DTW and SEA, and is probably hedging their bets on where to add that capacity.

If/When DL receives 787's, I would expect that DL would start by replacing 332's on these existing long/thin routes, and then use the 332's to replace 76ER's on routes that may not need a A333/A339.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:55 pm

Quoting delimit (Reply 45):
Is there any reason for the price to be low though?

Yes; Delta's 788 order is a deferral of NW's 787 order, which was very early and received launch pricing.
 
delimit
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RE: DL Widebody Strategy

Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:59 pm

Ah I misread you. I didn't realize you were talking about the price they paid for the initial order and read that as new orders. My bad.  

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