ridgid727
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:05 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
Why would an airline introduce another type that is more expensive and that would mess up operations and route planning flexibility?

Obviously armchair CEO you have the answer...Why do you ask? May I see your MENSA trophy. Im envious

[Edited 2015-10-12 16:06:47]
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:16 pm

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 50):
Obviously armchair CEO you have the answer.
Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 50):
May I see your MENSA trophy.

Amazing how thin skinned people can be over a simple question.

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 50):
Why do you ask?

Because you posted: "Alaska would be a great candidate."  
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nry
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:24 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 39):

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 37):
Boeing sold the 787 well below initial production cost, Bombardier did not(based on preliminary estimate).

Indeed - which is another reason why it has so few firm orders - they aren't willing to offer deep discounts for sales.

I imagine the goal of selling at deeper discounts up-front is to get moving down the production cost curve faster. You don't learn how to optimize anything while the line is idle.

In general, you should consider pricing at what people will buy and cost it out assuming a particular volume -- and pricing should not be cost-plus as a rule, unless you service the government. Initial cost of production is not something you should be basing your pricing on (I'm assuming they aren't doing that - but if they are....)
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aryonoco
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 1:47 am

Wow, this thread degenerated real fast!
 
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scbriml
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 37):
Initial ramp up may be expensive, but i think BBD has already spend the money (building & equipment) for that.

You're being way too optimistic. Read the Leeham article - the production costs of early customer frames are massive. BBD has not spent that money yet. Why do you think they went to Airbus with their begging bowl?

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 37):
With R&D, equipment, certification and Capital cost behind them, CSeries could be cash positive soon after delivery.

Again, way too optimistic.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 38):
If BBD is to offer LCC and the like credible fleet options, it needs to have a family that covers further up the market than 150 seats IMO.

It just isn't going to happen now and maybe never.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
It isn't an opinion. BBD is no financial nor market position to develop another model.

This.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:15 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
According to BBD, CSeries don't have a slot until 2018

How convenient. Up until now, you've trumpeted the poor quality of the CSeries order book and cast down on much of the order book. Fine. So to then turn around and say "...don't have a slot until 2018" is somewhat convenient for you.

I get that it was BBD that you were quoting and not yourself, but I think it's pretty clear that if someone serious were to desire slots before 2018, BBD would be happy to talk to Republic (for example) and offer to move their orders further out.

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planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:21 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 55):
How convenient. Up until now, you've trumpeted the poor quality of the CSeries order book and cast down on much of the order book. Fine. So to then turn around and say "...don't have a slot until 2018" is somewhat convenient for you.

It isn't being convenient at all. It is a fact that the CSeries has a poor order book. Despite the posturing, they've know that Republic is not going to take the 40 CS300s... and the same with several other "customers". First delivery to Swiss is not till mid-2016 (hard to believe that it will be almost 7 years since LH signed on) so that's only 18 months till 2018. In fact, depending upon ramp up and the initial production rate they conceivably might not even have slots available till later.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:12 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 56):
It isn't being convenient at all. It is a fact that the CSeries has a poor order book. Despite the posturing, they've know that Republic is not going to take the 40 CS300s... and the same with several other "customers". First delivery to Swiss is not till mid-2016 (hard to believe that it will be almost 7 years since LH signed on) so that's only 18 months till 2018. In fact, depending upon ramp up and the initial production rate they conceivably might not even have slots available till later.

Well, I worked a very long day today so my mind isn't particularly fluid right now, but I guess I'm not clear on what you are saying? If they know that Republic and others are not going to take their orders, are you saying that whether they take them or not there are not any slots before 2018? How does that work?

I have felt Republic is just sitting on the order for a while now, based as much as anything on Bedford's own comments. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just trying to figure out how you have your cake and eat it too, but despite you trying to explain it to me it just isn't making sense. Again, it's probably just my fried brain today.

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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:05 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
You can't even quote me correctly. I did not say the "end is nigh" I said: "Billy Bishop will not be soon allowed to operate jets."

My my, we are defensive now aren't we?

Google "figure of speech". You've been chanting out that BBD are dead and CSeries is dead for months.

City council will approve under pressure from state and local electorate.

Construction time is irrelevant to the security of the orders based on the jet decision.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

According to BBD, CSeries don't have a slot until 2018

According to you, most of the slots aren't secure deliveries, so which is it?

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

It is no plus... the family GOT BBD into this mess... there isn't stability with the family running BBD.

There can be with the govt holding a gun to their head.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

It isn't an opinion. BBD is no financial nor market position to develop another model.

They are in no financial position to, but I would argue to secure their market position they absolutely have to - which is the catch22.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

They are in a lose-lose situation. If they offer deep discounts they don't recover the cost of capital and if they don't they lose sales.

Indeed, at least, until airlines get visibility of the maintenance savings is supposed to offer c.f. A320/B737 (and obviously are comfortable with dispatch rates).

Thats a more wooly saving that isn't so easily guaranteed in brochure.

Quoting nry (Reply 52):
I imagine the goal of selling at deeper discounts up-front is to get moving down the production cost curve faster. You don't learn how to optimize anything while the line is idle.

Ideal ramp up is a slow one, so anything learned on one frame can be pushed back upstream as far as possible. [i.e. rather than having 3 frames at station X with the same problem that needs rework, you've 1 plane at station X and 1 at station Y where the problem can be nipped in the bud.]
 
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thekorean
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:41 am

Canadian government should threaten AC that they will allow ME3 in if they don't buy CSeries.
 
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Paolo92
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 10:08 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 41):

Just out of curiosity, how much is the (expected) lease rate for a 2016 C1S00 or CS300?
Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):

A CS300 is very high $200k or low $300k. In comparison, a 10-year-old A319 now leases for ~$150k. The CS300 can't compete with used aircraft, which will only get cheaper as NEOs enter service and displace CEOs

according to http://www.myairlease.com/resources/fleetstatus the following lease rates apply (monthly min-max):
- CS100 = $260k
- CS300 = $320k
- A319 = $75k - $280k
- 737-700 = $125k - $250k
- E195 = $165k - $270k.
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Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:34 pm

Is that wet or dry lease?

[Insurance being a difference of note.]

So, comparing new frame to new frame, A319: $280k, CS300: $320k

Or 87.5% of the lease cost. Note, that is still for an A319ceo.

Comparing:

http://i1.wp.com/airinsight.com/wp-c...ent/uploads/2010/12/casm-chart.jpg

The CASM difference is "only" ~15% and CAM ~20%.


Which means the lease prices are good value for the CASM/CAM differences.



Of course, the leasee has the choice of older A319 frames at much cheaper rates - but to take a median would be comparing apples with oranges. [There may be cheaper new frame rates for an A319 than $280k, but we have no way of knowing.]
 
drgmobile
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:46 pm

I am having a hard time seeing where the "news" is in all this. It's like letting everybody know you're still single when you live in a town of 500; everybody knows already and it's a bit awkward.
 
sebring
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:09 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 34):

I think there are a number of things we can conclude:

- Billy Bishop will soon be allowed to operate jets (under political pressure).
- Air Canada will soon order some CSeries (under political pressure).
- The local govt will support Montreal.
- The local govt will support Shorts (Belfast).



I think any AC order will be based on political opportunity, not political pressure. Political opportunity is where AC can get a special deal based on a reasonable discount but additional back-door, unreported benefits. Like I wrote, they will be adding CRJ-705 and Q-400 capacity to the regionals, so discounts can be buried, and there are a lot of back-door benefits the federal government can provide. It can even offer the same benefit to all airlines, it's just that AC is the largest and therefore would benefit disproportionately AC. For example, the feds could cut back the rental haul from YYZ, and that cold be passed on to all airlines through lower fees. Of course, that is AC's global hub, so it would enjoy the lion's share of the benefit.

As for Toronto Island, any runway expansion and jet flying there is no unlikely to occur prior to 2019. The federal government cannot impose itself on the Tripartite Agreement. It may be able to bribe/persuade everyone to go along, but there is no environmental assessment yet, and no runway construction is likely to begin until 2017 if it is to happen at all. Frankly, Bombardier can't afford to lose that order right now, but it is not the order it needs to keep the program going.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:26 pm

Quoting sebring (Reply 63):
As for Toronto Island, any runway expansion and jet flying there is no unlikely to occur prior to 2019. The federal government cannot impose itself on the Tripartite Agreement. It may be able to bribe/persuade everyone to go along, but there is no environmental assessment yet, and no runway construction is likely to begin until 2017 if it is to happen at all. Frankly, Bombardier can't afford to lose that order right now, but it is not the order it needs to keep the program going.

Exactly, its not like opening Billy Bishop up to jets is going to result in a flood of hundreds of new C series orders and everything will be just fine at BBD, especially since WS is fighting to allow the 73GMAX in as well. The situation at YTZ is basically insignificant in the long, and frankly short, term.

BBD needs large orders from large, established, blue chip customers using for planes for traditional operations, not small orders for niche operations at locations like YTZ/LCY (even though the C Series performance makes it ideal for places like those). With the exception of Lufthansa's 30, which was BBD's very first order for the jet, they basically have none.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:17 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
It is no plus... the family GOT BBD into this mess... there isn't stability with the family running BBD.

Canadair/BBD has been taking High risk projects since the launch of the original Ch-600 project. If bombardier was controlled by institutional investors, they would be milking the Ch604 and CRJ-200 as long as they can, and most likely folded following the 2007 financial disaster like Cessna and Hawker. Bombardier family has been taking massive risks with Canadair since they purchased it from the Government, and that is how they became #3 jetmaker in the world.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
A CS300 is very high $200k or low $300k. In comparison, a 10-year-old A319 now leases for ~$150k. The CS300 can't compete with used aircraft, which will only get cheaper as NEOs enter service and displace CEOs

I wonder how used A319CEOs are competing with MD-80s or F100 which are practically free to lease.
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:27 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Ch604 and CRJ-200 as long as they can, and most likely folded following the 2007 financial disaster like Cessna and Hawker

Is that not exactly what they did? Milk the CRJ-200? Even when Embraer was coming out with the E-jets, Bombardier's solution was to add more fuselage plugs. Notice how the prototype CRJ-700 was also the prototype for the -900 and the -1000?

I mean sure, they could have avoided putting any investment into the CRJ program, but then it probably would have been shut down in 2007. As it is it's barely alive.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Bombardier family has been taking massive risks with Canadair since they purchased it from the Government, and that is how they became #3 jetmaker in the world.

And that's fine...but don't come crying for government money when you screw up and expect to still control the company
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Canadair/BBD has been taking High risk projects since the launch of the original Ch-600 project. If bombardier was controlled by institutional investors, they would be milking the Ch604 and CRJ-200 as long as they can, and most likely folded following the 2007 financial disaster like Cessna and Hawker.

Uhh...they were milking the Challenger/CRJ200. Stretching it to form the CRJ700/900/1000 were not high risk projects. That is part of the reason why BBD is in so much trouble today, while Embraer is doing just fine with the E-jets (which were much higher risk than the CRJ700/900/1000).

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the C-series is the first all, 100% new, plane that BBD has ever built. Basically every jet they have today is a stretch/shrinked/modernized derivative of something developed before BBD acquired Canadair, Learjet, and de Havilland.
 
a380787
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:42 pm

I've noticed an over dependence on the E-jet family, which was supposed to be for thin routes or act as 50-seater upgauge

this past weekend I flew EWR-ORD-DCA-LGA, and all 3 flights ended up on E-jets : E70 EWR-ORD, E75 ORD-DCA, then E90 DCA-LGA

All 3 were supposed to be a form of hub-to-hub, and all 3 on E-jets. SMH.....
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:50 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 67):
Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the C-series is the first all, 100% new, plane that BBD has ever built. Basically every jet they have today is a stretch/shrinked/modernized derivative of something developed before BBD acquired Canadair, Learjet, and de Havilland.

AFAIK that is the case. The Q400 might as well have been an all new program as there isn't much Dash left, and they struggled their way through that as well from what I've been told. The CRJ1000 was nearly a year delayed, and that was essentially just a stretched 900, which itself was just a stretched 700. The same prototype got 3 different MSN's IIRC as they changed it from a 700 to a 900 to the 1000. As one can see, they've had less and less success with each stretch, and the orders go to the E jet family.

Mind you, Embraer isn't perfect either. They struggled with the FBW system, as well as a less than smooth EIS. However, they've really gotten the ball rolling and have set themselves up as the dominant player in that market.

Heads should roll at the top. Unfortunately they'll probably just be shuffling the chairs in the board room and say life is swell.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:59 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 69):
AFAIK that is the case. The Q400 might as well have been an all new program as there isn't much Dash left, and they struggled their way through that as well from what I've been told. The CRJ1000 was nearly a year delayed, and that was essentially just a stretched 900, which itself was just a stretched 700. The same prototype got 3 different MSN's IIRC as they changed it from a 700 to a 900 to the 1000. As one can see, they've had less and less success with each stretch, and the orders go to the E jet family.

Well there is also the Leajet 85, which I believe was also 100% new. But that program doesn't really help AirbusCanada's position so much...
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:06 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 70):
Well there is also the Leajet 85, which I believe was also 100% new. But that program doesn't really help AirbusCanada's position so much...

It doesn't count until they uncancel it.  
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:35 pm

Quoting sebring (Reply 63):
I think any AC order will be based on political opportunity, not political pressure.

Same thing essentially.

Substituting political maneuvering for political pressure in my original post is probably a more accurate reflection of what I mean.

Furthermore, if the island opens to quiet jets (read: CSeries and pretty much nothing else), won't that force AC's hand if they want to compete directly with Porter?

Quoting sebring (Reply 63):

As for Toronto Island, any runway expansion and jet flying there is no unlikely to occur prior to 2019.

Does the CS100 need the extension to operate?

Quoting sebring (Reply 63):
The federal government cannot impose itself on the Tripartite Agreement. It may be able to bribe/persuade everyone to go along, but there is no environmental assessment yet,

The Feds are the PortAuthority aren't they?

Transport Canada are a department of govt as well? [If you think they can't be swayed, let me assure you the FAA are swayed from "above"!]

So that leaves the local council. Which I would not expect to be a problem.


Yes, env assessment is needed, and will have to be done right to overcome any NIMBY legal blockages - but if the CSeries is quieter than the Q400 - much of the env assessment can be done by comparison.

Quoting sebring (Reply 63):
Frankly, Bombardier can't afford to lose that order right now, but it is not the order it needs to keep the program going.

Agreed, but every little helps right now.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:31 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 67):
Uhh...they were milking the Challenger/CRJ200. Stretching it to form the CRJ700/900/1000 were not high risk projects. That is part of the reason why BBD is in so much trouble today, while Embraer is doing just fine with the E-jets (which were much higher risk than the CRJ700/900/1000).

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the C-series is the first all, 100% new, plane that BBD has ever built. Basically every jet they have today is a stretch/shrinked/modernized derivative of something developed before BBD acquired Canadair, Learjet, and de Havilland.

Yes they have milked the CRJ as much as they can, but it has been very very small part of their revenue during the last decade. Most of Bombardier Aerospace growth and revenue in the last decade came from their business jet product portfolio which consists of different family of products.

As for new products,
Challenger 300 was the first brand new design for Bombardier.
Global Express was a very substantial upgrade of of the Ch-604 design, I would compare this to A300-600 vs A330 upgrade for airbus.
 
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:54 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 73):
As for new products,
Challenger 300 was the first brand new design for Bombardier.
Global Express was a very substantial upgrade of of the Ch-604 design, I would compare this to A300-600 vs A330 upgrade for airbus.

Canadair was acquired in 1986...nearly 30 years ago.
DHC was acquired in 1992.

So, in the past roughly 30 years, one clean sheet bizjet, a bunch of derivatives, and the Cseries. To put it in perspective, in 1986 Airbus had exactly 2 aircraft types flying. the A300 and A310. Since then, they've put out the A318/19/20/21 CEO and (in flight test)NEO, the 330ceo and (forthcoming)neo, A340, A380, and A350. You could also throw the ATR programs in there too probably.
I'd hazard a guess that Airbus has done significantly more high risk projects, including the world's biggest pax plane. Makes Bombardier look like child's play in comparison if you ask me.

Granted, it's sort of an apples to oranges comparison, but it should highlight how Airbus went from a bit player to being one of two large aircraft manufacturers. Bombardier rode the RJ wave till it crashed, and are now trying to figure out how to swim.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Canadair/BBD has been taking High risk projects since the launch of the original Ch-600 project. If bombardier was controlled by institutional investors, they would be milking the Ch604 and CRJ-200 as long as they can, and most likely folded following the 2007 financial disaster like Cessna and Hawker. Bombardier family has been taking massive risks with Canadair since they purchased it from the Government, and that is how they became #3 jetmaker in the world.

Again, seems to me the only 'high risk' they're getting done is a high risk of burning through their cash reserves.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:36 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 74):
To put it in perspective, in 1986 Airbus had exactly 2 aircraft types flying. the A300 and A310. Since then, they've put out the A318/19/20/21 CEO and (in flight test)NEO, the 330ceo and (forthcoming)neo, A340, A380, and A350. You could also throw the ATR programs in there too probably.
I'd hazard a guess that Airbus has done significantly more high risk projects, including the world's biggest pax plane. Makes Bombardier look like child's play in comparison if you ask me.

Bombardier is mostly a business Jet manufacturer where Airbus is a Commercial Jet Manufactures. So yes, Bombardier is much smaller compared to Airbus and Airbus can afford to invest more in their product just because of their size.

If we are only counting clean sheet designs, Both Manufacturer launched four clean sheet products product since their inception:

Airbus: A300, A320, A380 and A350, rest are all derivatives or substantial upgrade to existing designs. .
Bombardier: CH-600, CH-300, Lear 85 and Cseries.

In addition, Bombardier successfully incorporated two failed products from Others OEMs (Learjet & DHC) into their product portfolio. Even large manufacture like Boeing failed to successfully incorporate products from other OEMs. This is very substantial risk for a manufacture who started with a single business jet and no military contract to subsidize their development cost.

My point is,the reason for bombardier's problems is not because lack of investments in their products or milking the CRJ-200 for too long. They have invested a lot of money over the last two decades to keep their products update.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:05 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 75):
Bombardier: CH-600, CH-300, Lear 85 and Cseries.

The CH-600 predates Bombardier, in fact it was the losses incurred developing the CH-600 and getting it into full production that led to the Canadian Government selling Canadair to Bombardier.

You also forgot the A400M for Airbus (I'll just let you have the A330/A340 families as derivatives), and I'm not sure you want to go around touting the Learjet 85 right now...

So since inception BBD has launched 3 all new designs. One successful, one cancelled (excuse me, "suspended") between first flight and certification, and one that is currently bankrupting the entire company, not just the aerospace division, requiring them to seek outside help. Not really the best track record.

[Edited 2015-10-13 12:08:03]
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:17 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 76):
So since inception BBD has launched 3 all new designs. One successful, one cancelled (excuse me, "suspended") between first flight and certification, and one that is currently bankrupting the entire company, not just the aerospace division, requiring them to seek outside help. Not really the best track record.

I think i agree with your analysis. It was't the lack of investment that isn't the problem,but more on the execution and marketing side.
 
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:35 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 75):
Bombardier is mostly a business Jet manufacturer where Airbus is a Commercial Jet Manufactures. So yes, Bombardier is much smaller compared to Airbus and Airbus can afford to invest more in their product just because of their size.

Well during the CRJ glory days, say 2004, I count a total of 324 Bombardier deliveries, of which 214 were CRJs, and 19 were Q400s. The remainder were biz jets or amphibs. Hardly insignificant. Furthermore, in the time we used in the Airbus/BBD comparison, Airbus had two aircraft types and very few customers. Remember what they had to do to get the A300 flying in North America with EA? So if anything, that further proves my point about Airbus taking more risks and reaping more rewards. Did they have government backing? Yep. But every time Bombardier has found themselves up a creek the government (either federal or provincial) sends them a paddle in the form of incentives or loans.

In other words, if Bombardier was "mostly a business jet manufacturer" then the dying off of the CRJ's and Q400's shouldn't really be that big of a deal, and they probably wouldn't be turning to anyone who will listen trying to get help. If they were delivering RJ's at the rate they were 10 years ago, you wouldn't hear a peep about the financial drain the Cseries is.

If you look at Bombardier's deliveries since the turn of the century, about half, if not a little more are CRJs or Q400s. I wouldn't write off the commercial sides importance so quickly.

If it weren't for the RJ boom Bombardier probably wouldn't have been able to fund their newer bizjets.
 
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PW100
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 49):
A CS300 is very high $200k or low $300k. In comparison, a 10-year-old A319 now leases for ~$150k. The CS300 can't compete with used aircraft, which will only get cheaper as NEOs enter service and displace CEOs

I'm still struggling to understand this argument. If a new CS300 can't compete with a 10-year-old A319, then surely a new A319(neo) can't be competing either. Never the mind the (much) more expensive A320(neo). Yet they are so popular that Airbus is basically solidly booked for the next 5 - 8 years.

Apparently, new airframes offer something that 10-year old planes can't. And for good reason of course, otherwise new planes would not sell. But yet, I don't understand why the C-series would be exempted from this reality?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:11 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 79):

Well apparently Airbus has been offering great pricing at some customers to make the A320neo cheaper than the C series (and they, unlike BBD, can afford to be very aggressive with pricing) in order to choke and kill the C series before it can become a legitimate threat and so far it is working. Also easier to get better financing and leasing terms with the A320neo as the Ceo has a proven track record of success and the C series of course has no history.
 
a380787
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:24 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 79):

Apparently, new airframes offer something that 10-year old planes can't. And for good reason of course, otherwise new planes would not sell.

A lot lot less maintenance work, and that if fuel price spikes again, those old frames don't look so good anymore, even at a discounted acquisition cost.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:29 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 78):
Well during the CRJ glory days, say 2004, I count a total of 324 Bombardier deliveries, of which 214 were CRJs, and 19 were Q400s. The remainder were biz jets or amphibs. Hardly insignificant. Furthermore, in the time we used in the Airbus/BBD comparison, Airbus had two aircraft types and very few customers. Remember what they had to do to get the A300 flying in North America with EA? So if anything, that further proves my point about Airbus taking more risks and reaping more rewards. Did they have government backing? Yep. But every time Bombardier has found themselves up a creek the government (either federal or provincial) sends them a paddle in the form of incentives or loans.

Both A300 and Challenger 600 was not a commercial venture, but more of a national pride project, much like the Russian Subperjet today. Europe can afford put lot more resources into those projects than Canada can.

Despite massive government support, Airbus only developed two brand new designs during the first 30 years of existance, A300 and A320. The did not try to take on exotic investment projects like buying out failed aircraft manufacturers. It wasn't till the late 90's when Airbus started to invent substantial money into new designs like the A380 and A350, thanks to the success of A320.


Quoting diverted (Reply 78):
In other words, if Bombardier was "mostly a business jet manufacturer" then the dying off of the CRJ's and Q400's shouldn't really be that big of a deal, and they probably wouldn't be turning to anyone who will listen trying to get help. If they were delivering RJ's at the rate they were 10 years ago, you wouldn't hear a peep about the financial drain the Cseries is.

If you look at Bombardier's deliveries since the turn of the century, about half, if not a little more are CRJs or Q400s. I wouldn't write off the commercial sides importance so quickly.

Wake up and smell the coffee, turn of the century was 15 years ago. CRJ and Q400 died off over a decade ago at least in terms of profitability and it wan't that big of a deal. In the last decade (2005-2015) Bombardier delivered about 2000 business jets (vs about 550 CRJ and 450 QSeries) and unlike the CRJs business aircraft are high margin products. These business jets paid most of the bills at Bombardier Aerospace, including the bill for the CSeries.

[Edited 2015-10-13 13:33:39]

[Edited 2015-10-13 13:45:00]
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:37 pm

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 33):
I wonder if there would be political pressure from a federal level to allow jets at YTZ inorder to ensure that the sale to Porter goes through?

Shouldn't be hard as 2/3 participants of the tripartite agreement represent the federal government

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 44):
As to other N American carriers, I think it would be a fine machine for AA, both they and US had a sizeable F100 fleet and they have inherited an aging 319 fleet. All the 738's coming in are for S80 replacement plus there are the same inherited aging 320's. Their relationship with BBD is also good via Eagle.

Both AA & DL have good standing relationships with BBD.

Quoting Polot (Reply 64):
especially since WS is fighting to allow the 73GMAX in as well

I dont get WS, there are no more slots for them to get. So they can fight all they want it wouldn't really benefit them.
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 82):
Wake up and smell the coffee, turn of the century was 15 years ago. CRJ and Q400 died off over a decade ago at least in terms of profitability and it wan't that big of a deal. In the last decade (2005-2015) Bombardier delivered about 2000 business jets, and unlike the CRJs these are high margin products. These business jets paid most of the bills at Bombardier Aerospace, including the bill for the CSeries.

Great. Notice how I said SINCE the turn of the century, as in the last 15 years.

Secondly, the Q400's best year for delivery? 2007/8 with 66 frames. The next best? 2009/10 with 61.

Anyways, I don't know what point you're trying to make. First you claim that Bombardier has been risky by not milking the CRJ's, which is exactly what they've done. Then you claim that it doesn't matter because they're not really a commercial airframer.

You claim that they've been taking massive risks with the Canadair portfolio, which isn't the case. They've made a bunch of derivatives of the CL605 and came out with the Challenger 300. I don't really see the huge risk there.

Anyways, I'd give you a more in depth argument but I've got some AOGs and other IROPS to deal with at work right now
Cheers
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:50 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 84):
Anyways, I don't know what point you're trying to make. First you claim that Bombardier has been risky by not milking the CRJ's, which is exactly what they've done. Then you claim that it doesn't matter because they're not really a commercial airframer.

You claim that they've been taking massive risks with the Canadair portfolio, which isn't the case. They've made a bunch of derivatives of the CL605 and came out with the Challenger 300. I don't really see the huge risk there.

My point is very simple, contrary to popular believe,

1. Bombardier product portfolio is much wider than CRJ and all it's derivatives.
2. Bombardier did make substantial investment in their portfolio.
3. Today's problems for bombardier are not due to lake investment, but rather lack of excitation and sales success.
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 75):
My point is,the reason for bombardier's problems is not because lack of investments in their products or milking the CRJ-200 for too long. They have invested a lot of money over the last two decades to keep their products update.

True. They invested heck of a lot of money on their regional aircraft platforms (CRJ and QSeries). Why? Because at one point they were the leader of the regional aircraft market, so they wanted to stay that way, but made the wrong investment decisions. First they should have never launched the CRJ900 let alone the CRJ1000. Embraer launched the E-Jets and it was clear that BBD were headed for serious competition. They took the easiest route and stretched the CRJ700 two more times. The result? They turned over their market position to Embraer. Bombardier created the market for the regional jets, and they sadly don't even have a competitive product for the replacement market against Embraer.

Turboprops. All Bombardier had to do was talk to their rail divisions in Europe and they would hold up maps of high speed rail projects in work. Those high speed rail projects eat away short haul turboprop routes. BBD did not listen and launched the Q400. Sure it sold, but all that CRJ 900/1000/Q400 money would have been better spent on an all new regional jet platform (like Embraer did, and by the way they walked away from the turboprop market) to retain their market position in RJs while meeting their customers future needs.

[Edited 2015-10-13 17:17:52]

[Edited 2015-10-13 17:21:27]
Only the paranoid survive
 
OB1504
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:21 am

Quoting N628AU (Reply 16):
Both AA and UA need a 100 seat mainline jet to compete with the 717 DL has locked up, especially planning for fuel prices and system growth 5-10 years down the road.
Quoting bluefltspecial (Reply 19):
That being said, AA – IMO – shot itself in the foot – twice – so perhaps “feet” is the correct term. The first time in ridding itself with a 100+ seat jet: the F100, and then repeating that with the B717s it got from TWA (which sadly only one got a Hybrid AA/TWA livery). While they have the A319, it’s a heavy bird with a similar seating, so it’s not competitive anymore, with as mentioned earlier – special routes for hot/high conditions.
Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 44):
to other N American carriers, I think it would be a fine machine for AA, both they and US had a sizeable F100 fleet and they have inherited an aging 319 fleet. All the 738's coming in are for S80 replacement plus there are the same inherited aging 320's. Their relationship with BBD is also good via Eagle.

AA will be inheriting a fleet of 20 E190s from US. If they needed more aircraft in this size category, it would make more sense to order more E190s or E195s which are already in the fleet and come from a financially solvent manufacturer.

Quoting SPREE34 (Reply 40):
Assuming the pilots don't object? The Republic pilots don't have any leverage.

Republic doesn't even have any pilots. Between their inability to attract/retain pilots and the DL lawsuit (which hopefully AA will follow with one of their own), they will most likely be the next regional to fail.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 7:40 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Canadair/BBD has been taking High risk projects since the launch of the original Ch-600 project.

I would disagree with that.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):

If bombardier was controlled by institutional investors, they would be milking the Ch604 and CRJ-200 as long as they can, and most likely folded following the 2007 financial disaster like Cessna and Hawker.

Probably institutional investors would have decreed even less risks being taken and would have resulted in the death of the company prior to now.


[quote=AirbusCanada,reply=65]
Bombardier family has been taking massive risks with Canadair since they purchased it from the Government, and that is how they became #3 jetmaker in the world.

They made the right calls stretching the CRJ up to the 900.

At that point, they became too conservative.


They also made an awful call with the Lear85.
 
yvrtoyyz
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 3:42 pm

Sylvain Faust is reporting that he is hearing a new order of 63+ CSeries from a top North American airline.
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 89):
Sylvain Faust is reporting that he is hearing a new order of 63+ CSeries from a top North American airline.

I certainly take that tweet with a certain pinch of salt but it is interesting. Who would buy in bulk like that; UA? AA? AC to replace E series and A319's perhaps?
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 88):
Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 65):
Canadair/BBD has been taking High risk projects since the launch of the original Ch-600 project.

I would disagree with that.

List of high risk projects:

Global express.
Learjet Acquisition.
DHC Acquisition.
Short Acquisition.
Challenger 300
Q400
CRJ
Cseries.
Lear 85
Global 7000/8000 upgrade.

That's within the spam of about 25 years. Not all the projects were good idea.
However, I would argue this was a substantial amount of risk given the time frame, non existent domestic market or military contract and bombardier's experience in the industry.
 
golfradio
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:28 pm

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 89):
Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 90):

He has been right in the past. For instance with the Macquarie CS300 order.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 89):
Sylvain Faust is reporting that he is hearing a new order of 63+ CSeries from a top North American airline.

Quiet!
That will absolutely RUIN planemaker's lunch digestion proces!!!

[sarcasm:off]
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 91):
List of high risk projects:

You've just listed everything they've ever done.

Is there a program they've done you've not categorised as "high risk"?


I don't know all the programs, so cannot go into detail on them all, but:

In the beginning, there was the CL-600...

This was then stretched to form the CRJ100 and re-winged with CF34s to form the CRJ100. Medium risk.
The CRJ200 was a 100 with PIP engines. Very low risk.
The CRJ700 is a stretched 200 with new engines. Medium risk
The CRJ900/1000 are further stretches of the 700. Low risk.

The Global Express/5000/6000 are rewinged and re-engined CRJ fuselages. At best medium risk.

Thats two entire product lines essentially iterating on one original, the CL-600!
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 5:06 pm

Quoting golfradio (Reply 92):
He has been right in the past. For instance with the Macquarie CS300 order.

True, but he's also been tweeting like mad since the BBD crisis began so I'm not betting the farm on it just yet! Don't get me wrong though...would be absolutely brilliant if it does come off.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 93):

Quiet!
That will absolutely RUIN planemaker's lunch digestion proces!!!

Be nice to our Tuvaluan plane manufacturing friend; he's obviously the smartest person on this forum.....
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 14, 2015 7:01 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 94):
Is there a program they've done you've not categorized as "high risk"?

List of "low risk" projects:

Learjrt 40/45
Lear 70/75
Learjet 60/65
Challenger 350
Challenger 604
Challenger 605
Challenger 650
Challenger 850/900
Global 5000
CL-415
CRJ700/900/1000
DHC Q200/Q300
 
aryonoco
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 12:07 am

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 89):

Sylvain Faust is reporting that he is hearing a new order of 63+ CSeries from a top North American airline.

This woud be amazing news. It would basically save the program at this point.

I hope it's true and we hear about it soon.
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:18 am

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 58):
My my, we are defensive now aren't we?

Asking for accuracy is not being defensive... it is being factual.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 58):
Construction time is irrelevant to the security of the orders based on the jet decision.

Construction time would be completely relevant.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 58):
According to you, most of the slots aren't secure deliveries, so which is it?

Again, you lack for accuracy in quoting me. I never said that.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 58):
There can be with the govt holding a gun to their head.

Canada is not a third world country.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 58):
They are in no financial position to, but I would argue to secure their market position they absolutely have to - which is the catch22.

Without financial footing It is an absolute fantasy. But even if there was ever to be a CS500, they wouldn't have any better fortune up against A & B because they can't match the deals A & B make.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 72):
So that leaves the local council. Which I would not expect to be a problem.

If they couldn't get it through with a mayor who is buddies with Deluce, they are not going to approve it now.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 72):
Agreed, but every little helps right now.

It doesn't help "right now"... revenue would be realized of 3 to 4 years - that isn't "right now".
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 5:07 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 93):
Quiet!
That will absolutely RUIN planemaker's lunch digestion proces!!!

A single order, pretty much regardless of the quantity, would not affect him at all because the program NEEDS a stronger, broader customer base to build on. A 63-frame order barely replaces the 40-frame Republic order that is likely DOA.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 95):
Be nice to our Tuvaluan plane manufacturing friend; he's obviously the smartest person on this forum.....

I don't always like his approach, but when BBD is having to put out press releases saying that they still fully support the program, you can't argue that that's the kind of action he has predicted (or feared, if he's actually an ol' softy).

One on-topic question: "63" frames. Not "60" or "60-70", but "63". It's an odd number in more ways than one. Might that give us a clue into who might be ordering? Probably a stretch.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.

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