Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 7:57 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 98):
Construction time would be completely relevant.

No its not. In any way shape or form.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 98):

Without financial footing It is an absolute fantasy. But even if there was ever to be a CS500, they wouldn't have any better fortune up against A & B because they can't match the deals A & B make.

They cannot match the deals A & B can make, but if the CS500 were a 10% more efficient aircraft than the A320 (and maybe even better considering maintenance) they wouldn't have to, and indeed, shouldn't match the deals.

You continually fail to grasp this.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 98):

If they couldn't get it through with a mayor who is buddies with Deluce, they are not going to approve it now.

They didn't have the ability to noise test the prospective aircraft before, they do now.

It will go through.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 98):

It doesn't help "right now"... revenue would be realized of 3 to 4 years - that isn't "right now".

Yes it does help right now.

Right now BBD are seeking loans. The lenders would feel more secure if they knew there were several dozen more firm orders sitting on the books.

The inability to grasp even this simple logic suggests your judgement is heavily clouded by your negativity.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
They cannot match the deals A & B can make, but if the CS500 were a 10% more efficient aircraft than the A320 (and maybe even better considering maintenance) they wouldn't have to, and indeed, shouldn't match the deals.

They do if Airbus/Boeing are offering deals that completely wipe out the 10% efficiency advantage of the CS500... (I also struggle to see how the C series will have a maintenance advantage when it has similar engines to the A320neo while lacking any commonality with thousands of aircraft already in airline's fleets today.)

Being the most efficient plane doesn't give you free reign to price however you want, there comes a point where a cheaper plane (in up front costs, maintenance package deals, and fleet integration) makes more financial sense even if it is less efficient; that is basically the whole strategy of the A330neo vs 787. Boeing and Airbus's planes have commonality with planes already in the airline's fleets, they will be pumping out their planes faster (~50 a month each!) than BBD will, and have widebody programs to couple with the narrowbodies, so they can easily be aggressive with their deals.

Only a monopoly gives you free pricing reign, and BBD doesn't have that.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:19 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 101):
Being the most efficient plane doesn't give you free reign to price however you want, there comes a point where a cheaper plane (in up front costs, maintenance package deals, and fleet integration) makes more financial sense even if it is less efficient; that is basically the whole strategy of the A330neo vs 787. Boeing and Airbus's planes have commonality with planes already in the airline's fleets, they will be pumping out their planes faster (~50 a month each!) than BBD will, and have wide-body programs to couple with the narrowbodies, so they can easily be aggressive with their deals.

Few things you didn't consider:

1. Majority of the Narroowbody market (100-200 seat) is dominated by LCC with a single (Ryanair) or duel fleet(WS,SW,JB) type without any exposure to wide-bodies.
2. Maintenance is contracted out for most LCC operators, especially in emerging markets where majority of the order will come from.
3. Operational saving from single fleet type diminishes significantly once that fleet reaches a certain threshold.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:48 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 102):
Majority of the Narroowbody market (100-200 seat) is dominated by LCC with a single (Ryanair) or duel fleet(WS,SW,JB) type without any exposure to wide-bodies.

You are completely discounting the size of the Euro and especially US legacy's narrowbody fleet. DL has ~630 narrowbodies, AA has about ~770, UA has about ~550. Southwest, the largest LCC in the world, has ~690 737s, while Ryanair only has ~320, Jetblue is a relatively tiny ~210 (including the E190s) planes and WS a minuscule ~140 (including the Q400s). Most of the Euro legacies are in the 150-200 fleet size range, which makes the group's size (AF/KLM, IAG, LH Group) approach that of the US3. AirAsia, the largest Asian LCC, has 188 narrowbodies planes across all their airlines.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 102):
2. Maintenance is contracted out for most LCC operators, especially in emerging markets where majority of the order will come from.

The cost still dependent on the aircraft. A plane that is more reliable and cheaper to maintain has cheaper maintenance costs. Full stop. No matter who is actually fixing the plane. Contractors will charge more to fix things that cost more to fix. If a plane breaks down more often you are giving more money to your contractors to fix the plane.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 102):
3. Operational saving from single fleet type diminishes significantly once that fleet reaches a certain threshold.

Yes, once it reaches the threshold. But Airbus can go to Easyjet, for example, and say "hey, with the A320neo you don't have to retrain any of your pilots or cabin crew, it will be identical to the A320s you currently have."

Bombardier can't do that. U2's pilots will have to get type certificates to fly the C-series. Cabin crew will have to learn the new galleys/cabin systems. Someone has to pay for that. Either U2 does or BBD does. But either way it makes it harder for BBD to make a competitive deal and still make money (which, in the end, is BBD's goal).

[Edited 2015-10-15 07:50:48]
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:07 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 101):
They do if Airbus/Boeing are offering deals that completely wipe out the 10% efficiency advantage of the CS500... (I also struggle to see how the C series will have a maintenance advantage when it has similar engines to the A320neo while lacking any commonality with thousands of aircraft already in airline's fleets today.)

Airbus are currently discounting the A320 to around $30m USD, from a list of ~$97m!

A CS500 list price is likely to be ~80m, which means BBD would probably offer it around $65m - or twice the price of an A320.

That's a long way short of the $40-45m they'd need to be willing to let it go for to entice airlines. Can they meet that price point is the question. They don't have to match A320 airframe cost - just get close enough for the improvements to make the difference.


There is more to maintenance than engines. That sort of commonality is over-rated if the a/c achieves critical mass and you are using a maintenance depot that has a good throughput for the a/c type. Both of these are problems that will go away in time and the airlines know it.

Quoting Polot (Reply 101):

Being the most efficient plane doesn't give you free reign to price however you want, there comes a point where a cheaper plane (in up front costs, maintenance package deals, and fleet integration) makes more financial sense even if it is less efficient; that is basically the whole strategy of the A330neo vs 787. Boeing and Airbus's planes have commonality with planes already in the airline's fleets, they will be pumping out their planes faster (~50 a month each!) than BBD will, and have widebody programs to couple with the narrowbodies, so they can easily be aggressive with their deals.

No? Really?

There is more to operating costs than upfront price and fuel burn?

Wow, who'd have thunk it.
 
heavymetal
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 104):

Do you have a source for the $30M A320 sales price? This is far from anything I've seen in both literature and in practice.

I suspect you are not discounting the CS500 enough, if it ever came to fruition. I would expect the discounts to be in the neighborhood of 50%, similar to Boeing and Airbus discounts. This puts it in the $40-$45M range. And I still think the airlines need a larger haircut off that figure to pull the trigger.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:09 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 99):
One on-topic question: "63" frames. Not "60" or "60-70", but "63". It's an odd number in more ways than one. Might that give us a clue into who might be ordering? Probably a stretch.

Probably rules out UA. They would need 88 frames to maximize their regional scope clause.
 
yvrtoyyz
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:22 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 99):
One on-topic question: "63" frames. Not "60" or "60-70", but "63". It's an odd number in more ways than one. Might that give us a clue into who might be ordering? Probably a stretch.
Quoting RDH3E (Reply 106):
Probably rules out UA. They would need 88 frames to maximize their regional scope clause.

Note: He states "63+" indicating a minimum of 63 airframes.

http://twitter.com/sylvainfaust/status/654271688486592513
 
bmacleod
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting sebring (Reply 31):
It also wouldn't surprise me if the party that wins next week's Canadian election will find a quiet way to express its gratitude if AC buys, say, 20 CS300s, rather than have the political headache of subsidizing the aircraft maker.

Considering both Bombardier and AC are in Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's backyard; its VERY LIKELY!!!!
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Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting heavymetal (Reply 105):
Do you have a source for the $30M A320 sales price? This is far from anything I've seen in both literature and in practice.

There are such numbers floating around the interwebz - I've definitely seen them on airinsight.com

Probably worth a google to see where else turns up.


Its possible BBD would discount up to 50%. But I'd be somewhat skeptical.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 5:04 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 109):
There are such numbers floating around the interwebz

Then it must be true!   
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AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 5:08 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 103):
You are completely discounting the size of the Euro and especially US legacy's narrowbody fleet. DL has ~630 narrowbodies, AA has about ~770, UA has about ~550. Southwest, the largest LCC in the world, has ~690 737s, while Ryanair only has ~320, Jetblue is a relatively tiny ~210 (including the E190s) planes and WS a minuscule ~140 (including the Q400s). Most of the Euro legacies are in the 150-200 fleet size range, which makes the group's size (AF/KLM, IAG, LH Group) approach that of the US3. AirAsia, the largest Asian LCC, has 188 narrowbodies planes across all their airlines.

You are completely overlooking who are ordering the latest generation of Narrowbody aircrafts (100-200 seats). U.S legacies might be huge in terms of active fleet size, but they aren't growing much and as a result, they aren't ordering a lot of planes.

Indigo has the largest backlog of A320 NEOs (430 A/C) followed by AirAsia(304 A/C). Largest U.S. order for A320NEO came from Frontier(62 A/C). No single US legacy airline ordered A320 NEOs yet they maned to sell over 3200 aircraft.

Largest order for 737Max came from Lion air (201 A/C), followed by SW (200). About 200 out 2900 737MAX order came from US legacies(7% of total backlog) Turkish is the only European legacy airline with an active MAX order book(50AC).

As i Said, Narrobody maket is now diminated by LCC's who mostly operate single or duel fleet type.

Quoting Polot (Reply 103):
The cost still dependent on the aircraft. A plane that is more reliable and cheaper to maintain has cheaper maintenance costs. Full stop. No matter who is actually fixing the plane. Contractors will charge more to fix things that cost more to fix. If a plane breaks down more often you are giving more money to your contractors to fix the plane.

Thank you for ageing with me on the fact that Maintenance is mostly contracted out. Therefore you should also agree with me that there are is little or no upfront maintenance investment required by the operator if they choose to order a new aircraft type. Long term maintenance is a whole new ball game.





Quoting Polot (Reply 103):
Yes, once it reaches the threshold. But Airbus can go to Easyjet, for example, and say "hey, with the A320neo you don't have to retrain any of your pilots or cabin crew, it will be identical to the A320s you currently have."

Bombardier can't do that. U2's pilots will have to get type certificates to fly the C-series. Cabin crew will have to learn the new galleys/cabin systems. Someone has to pay for that. Either U2 does or BBD does. But either way it makes it harder for BBD to make a competitive deal and still make money (which, in the end, is BBD's goal).

You need to know the actual facts before you speculate about cost of Crew trainign cost.

1. A320CEO pilots have to get a new type rating if the want to fly the NEO. (Notice how you can't find a single press release from airbus on common type rating between A320CEO and A320NEO).
2. Easy Jet pilot training is contracted out to CAE. CAE is deploying dedicated A320NEO simulator to get the EAsyJet 320CEO pilots qualified for the A320NEO. CAE is also deploying dedicated CSeries simulator to get the SWISS BAE-146 pilots for the CSeries. Not much of a difference between the two scenarios in terms of cost.
3. Cabin crew trainign cost so minimal that it d

[Edited 2015-10-15 10:11:17]
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 5:51 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 111):
A320CEO pilots have to get a new type rating if the want to fly the NEO. (Notice how you can't find a single press release from airbus on common type rating between A320CEO and A320NEO).

I think you are mistaken. Airbus' goal was to keep changes minimal to avoid exactly this.
 
AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 6:03 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 112):
I think you are mistaken. Airbus' goal was to keep changes minimal to avoid exactly this.

That was the goal, but Airbus wasn't able to convince the regulars. As per latest information , Airbus did not achieve common type rating for the NEO. Please feel free to correct me with any publication from Regulatory authorities or Airbus themselves. From what i am hearing MAX will require separate type rating as well.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 111):
U.S legacies might be huge in terms of active fleet size, but they aren't growing much and as a result, they aren't ordering a lot of planes.

Hmmm, you're presupposing that you need to be growing to need planes, simply not true. There is natural fleet replacement that has to happen. As airplanes age they must be retired and replaced, as such US carriers still have quite large order books for narrowbody aircraft.


American Airlines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......405......145
32X......293......52

Delta Air Lines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......286......54
32X......200......45

United Airlines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......705......104
32X......153......0


Total
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737.....1396......303
32X......646......97
EqpTotal..2042....400

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 111):
Indigo has the largest backlog of A320 NEOs (430 A/C) followed by AirAsia(304 A/C).

There is a huge built in assumption there that these carriers will be successful in expanding so quickly without failing financially. It's certainly something I'd be worried about as an aircraft supplier.

[Edited 2015-10-15 11:24:23]
 
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PW100
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 7:45 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 104):
Airbus are currently discounting the A320 to around $30m USD, from a list of ~$97m!
Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 109):
There are such numbers floating around the interwebz - I've definitely seen them on airinsight.com

I've seen similar numbers for A320, but those were *without engines*, where the customers were hammering out their own deals with the engine OEM - usually PBTH - Power-By-The-Hour type program, where they do not purchase the engine, but pay a small initialization fee, plus an hourly and/or per flight fee. In those cases, Airbuses can sell the plane ex-engines. And then you would end up with around 30 - 35 Million.

Rgds,
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[email protected]
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:05 pm

According to http://www.planespotters.net/airline/JetBlue-Airways

JetBlue has 60 E190s with 3 historic that was sent to Azul. Making the number 63, could JetBlue be the mystery shopper for the C-series?

[Edited 2015-10-15 13:05:23]
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AirbusCanada
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:42 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 114):
There is a huge built in assumption there that these carriers will be successful in expanding so quickly without failing financially. It's certainly something I'd be worried about as an aircraft supplier.

That's exactly what was said about Ryanair, EasyJet, Emirates, AirAsia, Azul, Jetblue, VirginAmerica,LionAir,GOL,, . i could go on and on and on. Maybe one or two of the airlines will fail, but NEO and MAX order book is very large and very well diversified.

I would be more worried about US legacies filing for Chapter 11 than Indigo going out of business. India is a much tougher market than USA and Indigo is the clear front runner in that market.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 114):
American Airlines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......405......145
32X......293......52

Delta Air Lines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......286......54
32X......200......45

United Airlines
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737......705......104
32X......153......0


Total
Model..Ordered..Unfilled
737.....1396......303
32X......646......97
EqpTotal..2042....400

Thank you for providing the facts. As you can see in the numbers above, US legacies accounts for about 4% of Narrowbody backlog of about 9600 aircraft. A very negligible number in terms of the overall picture.
 
marktci
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:38 am

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 116):
JetBlue has 60 E190s with 3 historic that was sent to Azul. Making the number 63, could JetBlue be the mystery shopper for the C-series?

Good guess!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...alks-on-cseries-order-from-jetblue
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:03 am

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
They cannot match the deals A & B can make, but if the CS500 were a 10% more efficient aircraft than the A320 (and maybe even better considering maintenance) they wouldn't have to, and indeed, shouldn't match the deals.

You continually fail to grasp this.

If I have 150 A320's in my fleet and I am looking at the 150 seat market, I can go all-new with the CS500 or I can just top-up with the A320. Not only will Airbus try to match or get close to the CS500 deal, but there will be less crew retraining and more overall familiarity with the Airbus over the CSeries. And - the Airbus is a mostly known commodity with huge worldwide reach of their product.

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 107):
Note: He states "63+" indicating a minimum of 63 airframes.

So, 63 firm + 25 options.  

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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:15 am

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 72):
Quoting sebring (Reply 63):
The federal government cannot impose itself on the Tripartite Agreement. It may be able to bribe/persuade everyone to go along, but there is no environmental assessment yet,

The Feds are the PortAuthority aren't they?

The Toronto Port Authority changed its name to Ports Toronto a year or two ago. It remains a federal government agency. It owns and operates YTZ airport.
http://www.portstoronto.com/about-tpa.aspx
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:17 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 120):
The Toronto Port Authority changed its name to Ports Toronto a year or two ago. It remains a federal government agency. It owns and operates YTZ airport.

Was name change really necessary? LOL. Seems like they should be focused on other things
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:41 am

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
No its not. In any way shape or form.

Yes it is. Until construction is finished (if it is approved) there can be no jets.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
They cannot match the deals A & B can make, but if the CS500 were a 10% more efficient aircraft than the A320 (and maybe even better considering maintenance) they wouldn't have to, and indeed, shouldn't match the deals.

Of course... that is why the CS300 is selling like gangbusters.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
They didn't have the ability to noise test the prospective aircraft before, they do now.

It will go through.

The residents who elect council don't want jets. It is that simple. It isn't about the noise. Moreover, if the Conservatives do not win a majority government next Monday, the expansion is literally dead.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
Yes it does help right now.

Right now BBD are seeking loans. The lenders would feel more secure if they knew there were several dozen more firm orders sitting on the books.

No it doesn't help. There is no "several dozen" and there is no "firm". Porter has only a single dozen on conditional order pending approval of the extension. No extension, no jets... can't get an simpler than that.

Quoting Polot (Reply 101):
They do if Airbus/Boeing are offering deals that completely wipe out the 10% efficiency advantage of the CS500... (I also struggle to see how the C series will have a maintenance advantage when it has similar engines to the A320neo while lacking any commonality with thousands of aircraft already in airline's fleets today.)

The deals more than wipe out any 10% efficiency.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 102):
3. Operational saving from single fleet type diminishes significantly once that fleet reaches a certain threshold.

Yup, tell that to Southwest is listening.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 104):
There is more to operating costs than upfront price and fuel burn?

Wow, who'd have thunk it.

Yes, like an A320 has far greater revenue potential than the CSeries yet is priced cheaper and has global maintenance and support.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 113):
As per latest information , Airbus did not achieve common type rating for the NEO.

As per whose "latest information"? From what source? If it wasn't going to have a common type rating it would be splashed everywhere. Just stop for a second and think... the 737 Jurassic thru NG are common. Why on earth that with over 95% commonality and FBW the NEO and CEO will not be?
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:22 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 122):
The residents who elect council don't want jets. It is that simple. It isn't about the noise.

I hate to agree again because I love the idea of the CSeries, but you are right. There are plenty of examples of noise ordinances banning jets (or all commercial flights) even though current generation jets are often quieter than the privately owned business jet that they seem to gladly accept or tolerate.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 122):
Yes, like an A320 has far greater revenue potential than the CSeries yet is priced cheaper and has global maintenance and support.

And that's apparently the kicker, and one I have struggled to understand but seem to slowly be begrudgingly accepting of. The CS100 is just too big to fit into many airline's regional fleets, but if at mainline they (and their big brother) are quickly under-cut and out-revenue'd by the A32Xneo (and MAX). That leaves it to niche carriers or carriers that can make that dynamic work. With a gazillion A320/737 frames in service or on order, it's going to be tough to break into the market without giving them away are fire-sale prices.

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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
astuteman
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:26 am

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 111):
Indigo has the largest backlog of A320 NEOs (430 A/C) followed by AirAsia(304 A/C). Largest U.S. order for A320NEO came from Frontier(62 A/C). No single US legacy airline ordered A320 NEOs yet they maned to sell over 3200 aircraft. Largest order for 737Max came from Lion air (201 A/C), followed by SW (200). About 200 out 2900 737MAX order came from US legacies(7% of total backlog) Turkish is the only European legacy airline with an active MAX order book(50AC). As i Said, Narrobody maket is now diminated by LCC's who mostly operate single or duel fleet type.

I don't normally weigh in on these discussions. But..
This comment for me completely hammers home the point behind Airbus launching the NEO.
You mention a whole slew of LCC's who have already ordered the A320NEO
And in huge quantities.
(And with an ever-increasing emphasis on the A321 NEO for what it's worth)

Despite being launched 2 years later than the C-Series, Airbus will be bringing the A320NEO to the airline's earlier than the C-Series, and in quantities that the C-Series can only dream about.
Those huge quantities drive economies of manufacturing and procurement scale.
They build on a huge fleet of A32X family already in place with 95% parts commonality.
They build on a HUGE operational and maintenance infrastructure that is already in existence, which provides economies of scale the C-Series can't hope to match.

Most significantly for BBD and the C-Series though are the programme economics.
The entire NEO programme cost a fraction of the C-series (c. $2Bn vs c. 5.4Bn?) - a fraction that is already amortised across 4000 frames, and most of which was paid for by P+W anyway.

The development cost recovery for each NEO must now be less than $500 000 per frame.
For the c-Series, with 250 firm orders, that number currently looks close to $22M per frame.
That's a huge delta at these market prices IMO.

And with the massive delays (up to 3 years?), what penalties are now associated with those 250 frames?
Those numbers just look like a huge hill for BBD to climb even if the C-Series does command a price premium

I'm a big fan of the C-Series. I like the concept, and it definitely shook the narrowbody market up.
But predictably the response from Airbus was always going to be a very heavy punch (heavy enough to demand a similarly heavy counterpunch from Boeing)
No matter how efficient the C-Series is, Airbus can bring a whole slew of scale economies to the table which the C-Series just can't offer until such time as there are several thousand in service, and production is 40 per month plus.
And it is the delivery of those very economies that is going to make it SO difficult for the C-Series to make that volume growth.

Quoting AirbusCanada (Reply 111):
1. A320CEO pilots have to get a new type rating if the want to fly the NEO. (Notice how you can't find a single press release from airbus on common type rating between A320CEO and A320NEO).

A link demonstrating this would be good.
My first thought was that the type commonality is so obvious that it isn't even mentioned.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 119):
Not only will Airbus try to match or get close to the CS500 deal, but there will be less crew retraining and more overall familiarity with the Airbus over the CSeries. And - the Airbus is a mostly known commodity with huge worldwide reach of their product.


  
Airbus can pitch competitively to an enormous existing customer base with a product whose introduction will be almost unnoticeable.
Provided BBD can get over the financial difficulties the programme currently faces, I think the C-series can go on to be a success.
But IMO that is going to be a very long haul.

Rgds
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 8:50 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 119):
If I have 150 A320's in my fleet and I am looking at the 150 seat market, I can go all-new with the CS500 or I can just top-up with the A320.

If you have 150 A320 in your fleet, then they will be ceo - and you'll likely be considering a switch to neo anyway.
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:45 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 123):
Quoting planemaker (Reply 122):The residents who elect council don't want jets. It is that simple. It isn't about the noise. I hate to agree again because I love the idea of the CSeries, but you are right. There are plenty of examples of noise ordinances banning jets (or all commercial flights) even though current generation jets are often quieter than the privately owned business jet that they seem to gladly accept or tolerate.

It's probably closer to 50/50. There's definitely the very vocal anti jet crowd who wants to be able to go out on Lake Ontario and pretend they're in the Muskokas. There's also a large, and growing, group of people who live in the downtown core who appreciate the ease of access and efficiency of leaving your office or condo at noon, being at the airport for 1230, jump on a 1300 departure, and be in YOW or YUL for example, by 1400. I've flown through YTZ over 100 times. The demand is there for growth, and a good portion of residents understand the economic benefits to the downtown core. There's also those people who fly from say YOW to YTZ, walk out of the airport and walk up Bay street to their meeting, and then back in the afternoon. It's a bit of a walk, but there's also the shuttle or a cab. Then there's the VFR pax who like the idea of stepping off their aircraft, going through the tunnel, and then walk to go see the Jays play.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 125):
If you have 150 A320 in your fleet, then they will be ceo - and you'll likely be considering a switch to neo anyway.

And you'll probably also have a large amount of spares. Sure, engine parts will be different, but avionics, structures, even things like windshield glass, are all the same. Significant savings by going with the NEO. Probably enough so to mitigate the fuel burn difference between the Cseries and NEO, while also having more revenue generating potential.

I want the Cseries to succeed, but Bombardier is caught in a tough spot here.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:30 am

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 125):
If you have 150 A320 in your fleet, then they will be ceo - and you'll likely be considering a switch to neo anyway.

I assumed NEO in the comparison as clearly that's where the market is going. Anyhow, the point remains that the A320 would likely get the sell.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:50 am

Quoting diverted (Reply 126):
There's definitely the very vocal anti jet crowd

Actually, they are anti-airport. They want to turn it into a park. In a couple of days we'll all know if the extension is on life support or is dead. Two of the three main parties have stated that they will not amend the tripartite agreement.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Amiga500
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:35 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 126):

I want the Cseries to succeed, but Bombardier is caught in a tough spot here.

No doubt; they are between a rock and a hard place.
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:05 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 128):
Actually, they are anti-airport. They want to turn it into a park. In a couple of days we'll all know if the extension is on life support or is dead. Two of the three main parties have stated that they will not amend the tripartite agreement.

You're right...they use the anti jet line to try and ruther their cause.

Which are these two parties you speak of? Ports Toronto is very much for it, city council is waiting for the results of the inital study before making a decision (they're probably 50/50) and the current federal government is in favour of it, though it's probably that a Liberal government would oppose it. However, I think if Toronto City Council decides to proceed, the feds will capitulate. Interesting times ahead for Toronto and the raccoon.

In other news: The TTC is considering legal action against Bombardier over the delayed delivery of streetcars
http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ttc-consid...-over-delayed-streetcars-1.2613766

[Edited 2015-10-17 07:10:59]
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:36 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
Which are these two parties you speak of?

Both the Liberal Party and New Democrat Party have officially stated that they will not amend the tripartite agreement.

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
Ports Toronto is very much for it,

Yes, they have been for a very long time.

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
city council is waiting for the results of the inital study before making a decision (they're probably 50/50)

The study, in reality, was a way to say no without saying no... a common political tactic. Obama used it the whole time in office over the Keystone XL (until now when he is trying to build his presidential legacy).

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
the current federal government is in favour of it

Yes, they are.

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
However, I think if Toronto City Council decides to proceed, the feds will capitulate.

Not if the Conservatives are unable to form the government. Even if Toronto were to approve the extension (which at roughly 50-50 council support is not a "mandate"), among the first things that new incoming governments do is shuffle the appointees at federal agencies with their supporters. Both Ports Toronto and Transport Canada would not alter the tripartite agreement if the Liberals or NDP form a majority or coalition government.

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
Interesting times ahead for Toronto and the raccoon.

Certainly if the Conservative party fails to form the government it will be "interesting"... otherwise it will be status quo. However, the "strange" endorsement the Globe and Mail gave is perhaps indicative of a potential upheaval in the political landscape.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
airnorth
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:39 pm

"50% of something is better than 100% of nothing"
Another interesting opinion piece.

http://leehamnews.com/2015/10/19/50-...mething-to-consider-at-bombardier/
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:29 am

Quoting xdlx (Reply 24):
I am coming from left field.......... Cubana orders the CS300! To replace russian junk.
Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 89):
Sylvain Faust is reporting that he is hearing a new order of 63+ CSeries from a top North American airline.

Could that be AM ? One can dream!!!

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 100):
They cannot match the deals A & B can make, but if the CS500 were a 10% more efficient aircraft than the A320 (and maybe even better considering maintenance) they wouldn't have to, and indeed, shouldn't match the deals.

Well to make this thread even more confusing, how about the SSJ it cost half of what the C series, and does 90% of its missions.... why buy one aircraft if for the same money you can get 2 !!!

I really hope BBD survives, but its pretty gloomy out there, specially if A and B can price their metal so low...

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:25 am

Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
though it's probably that a Liberal government would oppose it.

What a surprise result... it looks like no one really expected it. The Liberal candidate, Adam Vaughan, for the riding where the Island Airport is located, got elected and he is probably the most vociferous opponent.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
ckfred
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:41 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 7):
Since when is an OEM offering a jet to an airline news? I think BBD is trying to control the message in the media away from the talk last week of them being in trouble and looking for a savior to something more positive.

Airlines do not like risk - US based legacy carriers despise risk. The CSeries is a serious threat to be canceled. Following this logic I don't see Legacy US airlines taking the CSeries seriously until they are more confident in its longevity.

Your right about risk. AA avoided ordering the 787 for some time. Then-CEO Gerard Arpey said that AA didn't want to be a launch customer, despite the fact that a number of other airlines had placed orders, including UA and NW.

But, about the time that Arpey was saying that AA would wait on ordering the 787, he made an interesting comment at a quarterly earnings call. Some asked about a 100-seat airplane, and Arpey said that the C-Series looked very interesting.

That had to be 5, 6, or 7 years ago. Clearly, AA was looking at the C-Series, and I suspect that AA continues to look at it. I can't remember if that comment was before or after AA ordered more of the CRJ700s.

We know that AA isn't ordering more A319s, in part, because PMUS has a substantial number. Yet, there are routes that need a plane larger than the Embrear 175. So, AA can order more Embrear 190s or the C-Series. Ordering more 190s would be simpler, but a lot of people thought AA wouldn't have ordered A319s and A321s, because it had a large number of 738s on the property.
 
goosebayguy
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:15 pm

The way this is going BBD will soon have to cancel the entire project. They simply do not have the cash to continue.
 
goosebayguy
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:20 pm

The way this is going BBD will soon have to cancel the entire project. They simply do not have the cash to continue.
 
ckfred
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:57 pm

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 137):
The way this is going BBD will soon have to cancel the entire project. They simply do not have the cash to continue.

But let's look at the market. Boeing and Airbus have given up on the 100-seat market. The A318 and the 736 did poorly in the market, and neither will be available as a respective NEO or MAX variant. Even the A319 and 737-700 are selling slowly currently, when compared to larger variants in the Airbus and Boeing line-ups.

Assuming that the 100-to-125-seat segment has potential buyers, is Embrear capable of serving that market alone with the 190/195?

AA wound buying narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing, because neither could deliver the small, medium, and large variants that AA wanted.

Although the C-Series is an all-new plane, most regional carriers and some of the U.S. legacies have relationships with BBD. It's not like BBD is trying to get its foot in the door with first time buyers.
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:40 am

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 137):
The way this is going BBD will soon have to cancel the entire project. They simply do not have the cash to continue.

They are nearly done with the Type Approval. By December they should have it certified. They have enough orders to start production albeit at a much slower rate than originally planned, deliver to Swiss and others to set the stage to attract more buyers. They still have cash for over a year to stick to their development plans on the CSeries and Globals.
Only the paranoid survive
 
Viscount724
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:30 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 134):
Quoting diverted (Reply 130):
though it's probably that a Liberal government would oppose it.

What a surprise result... it looks like no one really expected it. The Liberal candidate, Adam Vaughan, for the riding where the Island Airport is located, got elected and he is probably the most vociferous opponent.

More recent item:
http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hal...ets-is-dead-says-adam-vaughan.html

Sounds like no Porter CSeries or other jets at YTZ under the Liberals.
 
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ADent
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:51 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 139):
They are nearly done with the Type Approval. By December they should have it certified. They have enough orders to start production albeit at a much slower rate than originally planned, deliver to Swiss and others to set the stage to attract more buyers.

I largely agree with you. However they won't actually make money of the first planes built (or they will have to charge so much no one will buy). There is a learning curve and typically you price based on some unit down the road.

So they will need to borrow money until they get to unit 25 (or 350 in Boeing's case on 787) and start making cash positive on the program.
 
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Devilfish
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:55 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 139):
They are nearly done with the Type Approval. By December they should have it certified. They have enough orders to start production albeit at a much slower rate than originally planned

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Royal S King

 
I hope so too.   The CSeries is too far along and a very nice plane at that, for it to just fall by the wayside.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:21 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 140):
Sounds like no Porter CSeries or other jets at YTZ under the Liberals.

It's interesting, I just don't see this going away just because of a government change. If a new government is anti-business it's not a great start to their image of change. Certainly not to say they care now that they've got a majority government to sit back on but PR in the first 100 days in charge is a pretty big deal so I suspect this will get dragged out for much longer.

The good news for the C-Series is also because of the Liberal government and the gains they made in Quebec will be critical to their future success so keeping BBD going is going to be something that they'll be keeping an eye on.
 
diverted
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:27 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 131):
Quoting diverted (Reply 130):Which are these two parties you speak of?
Both the Liberal Party and New Democrat Party have officially stated that they will not amend the tripartite agreement.

Gotcha; I thought you were referring to Ports Toronto (formerly the TPA) and City council.

I'm wondering as to what the Bombardier folks will have to say about this....Trudeau will piss off a lot of people in Montreal if he shoots this down. Adam Vaughan is full of his own ego and thinks that he, and soley he, should decide what the Toronto Islands are used for. It's a shame he's at the federal level now.
 
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Cyow
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 144):
'm wondering as to what the Bombardier folks will have to say about this....Trudeau will piss off a lot of people in Montreal if he shoots this down. Adam Vaughan is full of his own ego and thinks that he, and soley he, should decide what the Toronto Islands are used for. It's a shame he's at the federal level now.

Agreed. I really wonder if any of the Toronto councilors have actually heard the CSeries flyby? I know it was in town a couple of months ago, but are they aware of how quiet this plane really is? Its high time that Toronto have two jet hubs. It would certainly shore up traffic at YYZ. Its a win win for everything... except maybe AC and the condo owners on the lake front. But again, future jet aircraft are only going to get quieter. Get to it Toronto!!
"Broadsword calling Danny Boy"
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:43 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 143):
The good news for the C-Series is also because of the Liberal government and the gains they made in Quebec will be critical to their future success so keeping BBD going is going to be something that they'll be keeping an eye on.
Quoting diverted (Reply 144):
I'm wondering as to what the Bombardier folks will have to say about this....Trudeau will piss off a lot of people in Montreal if he shoots this down.

There are far more impactful ways to save BBD then opening up YTZ. As I said before, YTZ is basically insignificant when it comes to the C-series/BBD, especially when the alternative is Porter can buy more Q400s (a BBD product!). Moving Porter's 12 frame order from provisional to firm is not suddenly going to reverse the C-series fortunes and save BBD.

BBD would much rather have cash and other government support to target the bigger fish in the sea. That is what will make or break the program/company.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:43 pm

This article claims Air Canada is in the market for up to 45 CSeries aircraft:

http://www.andreallardaviation.com/archives/1421
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Polot
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:51 pm

Quoting cyow (Reply 145):
Agreed. I really wonder if any of the Toronto councilors have actually heard the CSeries flyby? I know it was in town a couple of months ago, but are they aware of how quiet this plane really is? Its high time that Toronto have two jet hubs. It would certainly shore up traffic at YYZ. Its a win win for everything... except maybe AC and the condo owners on the lake front. But again, future jet aircraft are only going to get quieter. Get to it Toronto!!

You are thinking too much like an aviation enthusiast. It is not just about the noise, there are many people who don't want an airport there period. Planes still make noise, they don't care how quiet they are. Airports generate traffic. They don't want more flights out of there, they don't want to see the airport expanded. They would rather the airport be a park/green area. They are just using the "jets are loud" mantra as an excuse, no matter how false that mantra is.
 
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Cyow
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RE: Bombardier Offers CSeries To N. American Carriers

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:54 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 147):

This article claims Air Canada is in the market for up to 45 CSeries aircraft:

http://www.andreallardaviation.com/archives/1421

Good find KarelXWB. Perhaps AC will stick their necks out and save BBD yet. A 45 order could be the momentum BBD needs to shore up more interest in the program.
"Broadsword calling Danny Boy"

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