|Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 34):|
I think there are a number of things we can conclude:
- Billy Bishop will soon be allowed to operate jets (under political pressure).
- Air Canada will soon order some CSeries (under political pressure).
- The local govt will support Montreal.
- The local govt will support Shorts (Belfast).
I think any AC
order will be based on political opportunity, not political pressure. Political opportunity is where AC
can get a special deal based on a reasonable discount but additional back-door, unreported benefits. Like I wrote, they will be adding CRJ-705 and Q-400 capacity to the regionals, so discounts can be buried, and there are a lot of back-door benefits the federal government can provide. It can even offer the same benefit to all airlines, it's just that AC
is the largest and therefore would benefit disproportionately AC
. For example, the feds could cut back the rental haul from YYZ
, and that cold be passed on to all airlines through lower fees. Of course, that is AC
's global hub, so it would enjoy the lion's share of the benefit.
As for Toronto Island, any runway expansion and jet flying there is no unlikely to occur prior to 2019. The federal government cannot impose itself on the Tripartite Agreement. It may be able to bribe/persuade everyone to go along, but there is no environmental assessment yet, and no runway construction is likely to begin until 2017 if it is to happen at all. Frankly, Bombardier can't afford to lose that order right now, but it is not the order it needs to keep the program going.