BTVB6Flyer
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UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:16 am

It's been discussed previously of how big of a hole TPA-SFO is and how long TPA has been fighting for this route.

Well on TPA's destinations map, which is updated regularly and is very accurate, it now has TPA-SFO non-stop on UA. Keep in mind, this same map, has been the source of a early (before PR announcement) of new destinations in the past.

Could it be the long awaited TPA-SFO nonstop, that Tampa has been clamoring for?

Map Link:

http://tpa.fltmaps.com/en
 
727LOVER
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:21 am

I thought WN did TPA-MKE?

Quoting BTVB6Flyer (Thread starter):
it now has TPA-SFO non-stop on UA

Where does it say UA?

[Edited 2015-10-21 20:26:01]
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:24 am

^^

If you search routes on the map page, then TPA-SFO. It lists all the available connections, but at the very top it has the non stop route, and when you click details it says flown by UA.
 
avi8
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:26 am

I would not be surprised if they announced it. However, I would not hold my breath. UA has a lot on their hands right now.
avi8

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727LOVER
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:27 am

If true, someone let the cat out of the bag. I'll have to check with my spy. 
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:02 am

Since when do UA executives fly AA?

^This in reference to today's One Mile at a Time post.

[Edited 2015-10-21 21:16:37]
 
UA444
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:45 am

They need to start MIA.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:08 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 6):
They need to start MIA.

AA already has a stranglehold on SFO MIA, plus UA and VX fly SFO FLL.
 
afcjets
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:36 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 7):
AA already has a stranglehold on SFO MIA, plus UA and VX fly SFO FLL.

Bizarre United can't compete in their hub, especially between two high profile international cities, more especially where one is their Asian gateway, and also where no nonstops MIA-Asia exist on any airline.
 
USAirALB
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:40 am

I wouldn't be surprised to see UA start SFO-TPA/CLT very soon. I think they are the two largest cities on the East coast left without UA service to SFO.

I could see UA try SFO-MIA, although I am hesitant to believe they will simply because they already fly SFO-FLL and because of their current weakness in the MIA market.
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Rdh3e
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:24 pm

UA has a through flight number on SFO-TPA. TPA's software is probably confused.

[Edited 2015-10-22 07:25:05]
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:36 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 9):
I wouldn't be surprised to see UA start SFO-TPA/CLT very soon. I think they are the two largest cities on the East coast left without UA service to SFO.

I could see UA try SFO-MIA, although I am hesitant to believe they will simply because they already fly SFO-FLL and because of their current weakness in the MIA market.

Both TPA and CLT makes sense, esp TPA.

Quoting afcjets (Reply 8):

Bizarre United can't compete in their hub, especially between two high profile international cities, more especially where one is their Asian gateway, and also where no nonstops MIA-Asia exist on any airline.

Regarding MIA, UA is simply following the domestic money, which is FLL not MIA. Same thing with DL, which is far larger on ATL-FLL than ATL-MIA.
 
badgervor
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:46 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 1):

I thought WN did TPA-MKE?

They do one a day except Saturdays.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:24 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
Regarding MIA, UA is simply following the domestic money, which is FLL not MIA. Same thing with DL, which is far larger on ATL-FLL than ATL-MIA.

Although DL does have a nonstop on LAX-MIA over LAX-FLL. It might not want to compete against B6 and VX out of FLL when it can court presumably higher yielding traffic into and out of MIA, even if it competes against AA.

[Edited 2015-10-22 08:29:09]
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 9):
I think they are the two largest cities on the East coast left without UA service to SFO.

UA also doesn't cover SFO-DTW.
 
afcjets
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
Quoting afcjets (Reply 8):
Bizarre United can't compete in their hub, especially between two high profile international cities, more especially where one is their Asian gateway, and also where no nonstops MIA-Asia exist on any airline.
Regarding MIA, UA is simply following the domestic money, which is FLL not MIA. Same thing with DL, which is far larger on ATL-FLL than ATL-MIA.

I think it has more to do with not wanting to compete with AA. Plenty of domestic demand to Miami and Miami Beach too, perhaps more than PBI and FLL combined. FLL is also one of the lowest yield airports in the country and hometown of Spirit Airlines and a lot of the demand is fare driven (meaning includes diversion from MIA). Asia-Miami would be a much smarter focus IMO and while someone travelling to Miami from Long Island may have heard of Ft Lauderdale and knows it's closeby, Asian nationals may not have and will only search for MIA. And most business travelers are not searching for nearby alternate airports.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting BTVB6Flyer (Thread starter):
how long TPA has been fighting for this route.

If the UA flight doesn't materialize, I wonder if the TPA market could take the same approach that CMH did (w/ some guarantees offered), and get a deal with WN for OAK service.

Presumably, WN could offer some connections to PDX and SEA from OAK. WN is quite large in both of the markets (OAK and TPA), but within California it's known more for short-haul service, and TPA is probably the destination end more for eastern and midwest markets. However, WN has marketing know-how to attract leisure pax, and already established frequent flier bases on both sides.

[Edited 2015-10-22 09:09:44]
 
dfwjim1
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:09 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 13):

Actually DL is running two daily nonstop each way between MIA and LAX.

Quoting afcjets (Reply 15):

I ran into somebody the other day that lives in the Miami area but was taking UA from FLL to SFO and then on to Sydney. FLL
is centrally located to much of South Florida so it is really not too bad of drive from Miami to that airport.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 17):
Actually DL is running two daily nonstop each way between MIA and LAX.

I don't think it's daily year-round. I see it offered in the Spring but not during the Winter.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:28 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 15):

I think it has more to do with not wanting to compete with AA. Plenty of domestic demand to Miami and Miami Beach too, perhaps more than PBI and FLL combined. FLL is also one of the lowest yield airports in the country and hometown of Spirit Airlines and a lot of the demand is fare driven (meaning includes diversion from MIA). Asia-Miami would be a much smarter focus IMO and while someone travelling to Miami from Long Island may have heard of Ft Lauderdale and knows it's closeby, Asian nationals may not have and will only search for MIA. And most business travelers are not searching for nearby alternate airports.

No that's not the case. Previous posted data shows O&D volume higher to FLL than MIA from many major cities in the country. If it were about avoiding a hubbing incumbent, airlines would be flocking to OAK MDW HOU at every opportunity.

DL has no qualms about competing with AA, yet ATL-FLL has far more capacity than ATL-MIA. You think DL is doing it for fun ? MIA has higher domestic traffic volume, but that's completely different from O&D demand. A very large chunk of that is using MIA as a through point to Caribbean and LatAm.

Same thing with NYC-SoFl, arguably one of the largest markets in the nation. There's quite a bit more capacity to FLL than MIA. Even DL is split roughly 50/50 between NYC-FLL and NYC-MIA. Add in PBI and there's even more skew *away* from MIA.

ps : same story on DL's DTW-SoFL - 6x to FLL but only 3x to MIA.

[Edited 2015-10-22 09:32:56]
 
afcjets
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:49 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 19):
No that's not the case. Previous posted data shows O&D volume higher to FLL than MIA from many major cities in the country. If it were about avoiding a hubbing incumbent, airlines would be flocking to OAK MDW HOU at every opportunity.

There is no doubt FLL has grown tremendously over the years and DL has always had more capacity into FLL than MIA but MIA has always been a hub whether for EA and PA, or AA and yes all three with significant soutbound connections. Virtually all of the growth at FLL in the past 20 years has been for LCC too. FLL had and has more room to grow than MIA. You have to look at the diversion data to know where the true demand exists and that is extremely difficult to measure here because that type of analysis can be more easily been done on the origin side, not the destination side and MIA/FLL are more destination heavy. The point I am trying to make is if DL or AA had SFO as their hub and TPAC gateway, I am pretty sure they would have SFO-MIA and even if MIA was not a hub for AA.
 
MAH4546
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:55 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
Regarding MIA, UA is simply following the domestic money,

Please don't confuse money with volume. MIA's average fares are quite a bit higher - premium passengers (the "money") prefer MIA.
a.
 
727LOVER
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:08 pm

Quoting badgervor (Reply 12):
They do one a day except Saturdays.

The map doesn't show MKE, so that's why I asked.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
sxf24
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:23 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):
Please don't confuse money with volume. MIA's average fares are quite a bit higher - premium passengers (the "money") prefer MIA.

Please don't confuse higher fares with premium passengers. MIA's average fares are quite a bit higher because AA is the dominant carrier and can drive the market. FLL is more competitive and attracts plenty of wealthy, premium passengers despite having lower average fares.

MIA is a cool airport - and sexy to A.net - because of the diversity in carriers and destinations. For passengers, FLL offers a far superior experience. I intentionally choose FLL even when I have meetings in downtown MIA or at the MIA airport.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:28 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):

Please don't confuse money with volume. MIA's average fares are quite a bit higher - premium passengers (the "money") prefer MIA.

No, you're confusing *distribution* with true premium yield. FLL only appears lower because of ULCC skew. When viewing from the same airline (e.g. DL), the difference isn't all that pronounced at all ---

Average fare data, 12mos ending Dec'14

DTW-SoFL
FLL : DL $227, NK $107
MIA : DL $207 (-9%), AA $187

LGA-SoFL
FLL : DL $218, B6 $207, NK $133
MIA : DL $216 (-1%), AA $236

ATL-SoFL
FLL : DL $199, WN $135-145, NK $102
MIA : DL $207 (+4%), AA $160-165

I picked 3 random markets where DL operates to both airports, and it's clear that within the same airline, MIA prices DO NOT command a premium over FLL. All of FLL's perceived lower fare is due to ULCCs, which compete in a different market segment all together.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:50 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
I picked 3 random markets where DL operates to both airports, and it's clear that within the same airline, MIA prices DO NOT command a premium over FLL

What about if one considers longer distance O&D markets especially those not driven by domestic connections (not DTW and ATL)? There has to be a strategic reason DL is flying LAX-MIA over LAX-FLL.

It's in DL's interest to steer connecting traffic to use FLL, since FLL has lower CPE. It's also more centrally located. Point of sale from the other side is going to be content using FLL with those two factors.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
UA is simply following the domestic money
Quoting afcjets (Reply 15):

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
Quoting afcjets (Reply 8):
Bizarre United can't compete in their hub, especially between two high profile international cities, more especially where one is their Asian gateway, and also where no nonstops MIA-Asia exist on any airline.
Regarding MIA, UA is simply following the domestic money, which is FLL not MIA. Same thing with DL, which is far larger on ATL-FLL than ATL-MIA.

I think it has more to do with not wanting to compete with AA. Plenty of domestic demand to Miami and Miami Beach too, perhaps more than PBI and FLL combined. FLL is also one of the lowest yield airports in the country and hometown of Spirit Airlines and a lot of the demand is fare driven (meaning includes diversion from MIA). Asia-Miami would be a much smarter focus IMO and while someone travelling to Miami from Long Island may have heard of Ft Lauderdale and knows it's closeby, Asian nationals may not have and will only search for MIA. And most business travelers are not searching for nearby alternate airports.

Exactly. AA at MIA is a behemoth. UA and more recently DL tried to break into the MIA market and failed very soon. AA is sending the 77W on LAX MIA and has long operated three-class 77Es on the route, in addition to 767s on SFO MIA, so there is lots of coast-to-coast demand from MIA. AA just has it all. I mean, even look at how UA does on NYC-MIA compared to AA. They even send RJs on some EWR MIA flights compared to AA which probably has something like 50 combined frequencies (I may be exaggerating slightly) from MIA to all 3 NYC airports combined. No one messes with Aerolineas Miami.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:02 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 25):

What about if one considers longer distance O&D markets especially those not driven by domestic connections (not DTW and ATL)? There has to be a strategic reason DL is flying LAX-MIA over LAX-FLL.

It's in DL's interest to steer connecting traffic to use FLL, since FLL has lower CPE. It's also more centrally located. Point of sale from the other side is going to be content using FLL with those two factors.

Location is a good factor for customers to pick an airport, but CPE only moves the needle a bit. Airport fees is a very small chunk of the bill compared to fuel labor and equipment.

For your theory to be true, DL has to be flocking to OAK MDW HOU (all less delay, closer to city center, and possibly lower CPE) over SFO ORD IAH, but that's clearly not the case.
 
dfwjim1
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:17 pm

Maybe the cruise ship industry has something to do with it too. Perhaps the cruise ships at FLL handle more customers from
Canada and the United States while the ships in MIA have more customers that come from overseas to go on their cruises.
 
MAH4546
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:24 pm

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 28):
Maybe the cruise ship industry has something to do with it too. Perhaps the cruise ships at FLL handle more customers from
Canada and the United States while the ships in MIA have more customers that come from overseas to go on their cruises.

All the cruises are largely U.S.-centric still; I doubt there is a disparity in the demographics from each port. FLL is simply more affordable and appeals to vacationers.
a.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:25 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 27):
For your theory to be true, DL has to be flocking to OAK MDW HOU (all less delay, closer to city center, and possibly lower CPE) over SFO ORD IAH, but that's clearly not the case.

You seem to speak in absolutes, and you presented a strawman argument.

The CPE difference of about $15 between MIA and FLL can be pretty significant for domestic itineries, especially when fares are below $200 and a carrier is relying on connections.

I haven't heard such is the case atleast between MDW and ORD, and IAH and HOU, and these are more or less same city airports with less submarket distinctions.

I've seen that OAK has lower CPE, but SFO is the preferred airport in that region for both domestic and international.

B6 did choose HOU over IAH, and maybe it's to differentiate itself over UA.

The idea that a carrier would choose something to cover a niche (courting a specific group but within a large market), probably doesn't fit your idea of what airlines should be doing.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:17 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):

B6 did choose HOU over IAH, and maybe it's to differentiate itself over UA.

And have you noticed B6's Houston presence got nowhere and is stagnant ?

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):
I've seen that OAK has lower CPE, but SFO is the preferred airport in that region for both domestic and international.

So you've essentially conceded that MIA's preference as the primary domestic airport of the region is much lower than SFO/OAK dynamic, which essentially proves my point.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):

The CPE difference of about $15 between MIA and FLL can be pretty significant for domestic itineries, especially when fares are below $200 and a carrier is relying on connections.

I presented DL fare data showing there's no pricing premium on MIA. If MIA were so high yielding, the pricing premium would more than cover the CPE difference.

And if FLL is this low yielding LCC trash land people like to portray it to be, how come DL is commanding essentially the same pricing ?

Your entire argument surrounds a single DL LAX-MIA route over LAX-FLL, while I've presented multiple data points. If you want to continue a discussion, bring some actual data to the table.
 
nottarockstar
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:42 pm

Please United, announce SFO-TPA (and start before the holidays!). Connecting anywhere makes this trip too long.
 
rtalk25
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:58 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 31):
And have you noticed B6's Houston presence got nowhere and is stagnant ?

It's a spoke in B6's network, much like MIA in UA or DL's network. Neither have hub advantages there, so the choice to be there is differentiation.

AS is similarly operating in both BWI and IAD, and isn't putting all it's flights to IAD just because IAD is major transcon airport in WAS, where the "money" would indicate otherwise.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 31):
So you've essentially conceded that MIA's preference as the primary domestic airport of the region is much lower than SFO/OAK dynamic, which essentially proves my point.

Nope, I didn't conclude that.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 31):
Your entire argument surrounds a single DL LAX-MIA route over LAX-FLL,

And, which you haven't explained it's existence. All it takes is this example to prove that there is opportunity at MIA for other carriers than AA. Your point hinges on that the "money" is exclusively at FLL for carriers that are not AA.
 
davescj
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:41 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 13):
Although DL does have a nonstop on LAX-MIA over LAX-FLL. It might not want to compete against B6 and VX out of FLL when it can court presumably higher yielding traffic into and out of MIA, even if it competes against AA.

I suspect this is DL trying to build up the LAX hub more than anything else. FLL (as others have pointed out) is more leisure. MIA has more biz traffic. Therefore, not a total surprise.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 14):
UA also doesn't cover SFO-DTW.

This actually does surprise me. I'd think UA could manage at least one a day. PMUA had a daily SFO-IAH.

TPA - SFO -- what would be the attraction for UA customers or *A?

Dave
Can I have a mojito on this flight?
 
boilerla
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:51 pm

Quoting davescj (Reply 34):

TPA - SFO -- what would be the attraction for UA customers or *A?

Connecting the TPA region to the largest TPAC hub in North America? A connection in IAH or ORD makes a 2nd connection in SFO to Asia a lot more tight.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:43 am

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 33):

When did I ever say exclusively ??? If you want to smear someone, try harder.
 
BayAreaFlyer
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:25 am

Wouldn't be surprised to see WN start OAK-TPA and compete against UA fares once SFO-TPA begins. LUV has successfully been building up TPA. Recently LUV SFO-ATL route was moved to OAK, one of the following reasons flights are shifting to OAK is due to the BART people-mover connector. I see LUV expansion from TPA to OAK, PDX, SEA & SAN.
 
afcjets
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:38 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
I picked 3 random markets where DL operates to both airports, and it's clear that within the same airline, MIA prices DO NOT command a premium over FLL. All of FLL's perceived lower fare is due to ULCCs, which compete in a different market segment all together.
Quoting a380787 (Reply 31):
I presented DL fare data showing there's no pricing premium on MIA. If MIA were so high yielding, the pricing premium would more than cover the CPE difference.

How are three Delta hubs to FLL random?
 
hiflyer
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:39 am

Just as a point...FLL does draw from SW Florida using I75 (aka Alligator Alley)....for those both looking for LCC and Networked carriers the prices can make it worth the 90 min straight shot easy drive across compared to what they would pay out of RSW.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:50 am

I expect Virgin America to announce this soon.
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:47 am

Quoting afcjets (Reply 38):

That's to showcase where SA)">DL flies to both airports. If u think that'd inadequate, then show data from the SAME airline that MIA passengers command significantly higher pricing then.
 
afcjets
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:20 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 41):

That's to showcase where DL flies to both airports

If you are implying to where they fly nonstop to both MIA and FLL, that is certainly not random, as most of their service into both of these nonhub airports is connecting and you have to look at the entire picture if you are going to say one airport has higher average fares than another. And the key word is average, not just lowest fare comparison. FLL is one of the largest LCC and ULCC airports in the country and that affects all airlines fares including Delta into FLL.
 
a380787
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RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 42):

If you are implying to where they fly nonstop to both MIA and FLL, that is certainly not random, as most of their service into both of these nonhub airports is connecting and you have to look at the entire picture if you are going to say one airport has higher average fares than another. And the key word is average, not just lowest fare comparison. FLL is one of the largest LCC and ULCC airports in the country and that affects all airlines fares including Delta into FLL.

No, your assertion is that MIA commands higher yield even within the same airline, so the only correct measure is one that hubs at neither FLL nor MIA but flies to both, which is mostly UA and DL. I personally ignore ULCCs when searching, so their dirt cheap fares are completely irrelevant to me on whether I should pick FLL or MIA based on pricing.

I've even shown AA data showcasing that MIA doesn't necessarily command higher than FLL in the legacy space. ULCC operates in a completely different market segment and is not meaningful to your assertion. What you're confusing is distribution of fares, not averages of fares. Similar to those armchair experts on FT claiming AA commands highest average fare on the transcon without splitting out the fares PER CABIN, which is the apples to apples metric.

Please show ACTUAL data that MIA is higher priced than FLL within either DL or UA.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting afcjets (Reply 42):
And the key word is average, not just lowest fare comparison. FLL is one of the largest LCC and ULCC airports in the country and that affects all airlines fares including Delta into FLL.

I've already showed data that DL commands significantly higher than NK on comparable routes, so your assertion is already proven false before you stated it.
 
afcjets
Posts: 2853
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 43):
No, your assertion is that MIA commands higher yield even within the same airline, so the only correct measure is one that hubs at neither FLL nor MIA but flies to both, which is mostly UA and DL.

My assertion was UA is more likely to capture TPAC traffic with MIA than FLL. Comparing the yields from Delta east coast hubs to South Florida is irrelevant.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 43):
I personally ignore ULCCs when searching, so their dirt cheap fares are completely irrelevant to me on whether I should pick FLL or MIA based on pricing.

If you want to compare FLL vs MIA as a whole, I did not realize you were going to "personally ignore" a large segment of FLL traffic. I get it now, let's throw out the significant amount of low yield at FLL to prove it has higher yield than MIA.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 43):
Please show ACTUAL data that MIA is higher priced than FLL within either DL or UA.

You mean cherry pick a few markets like you did?

[Edited 2015-10-23 09:03:50]
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3529
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:40 pm

You guys are all fighting over this like children.

The original question was "Why do legacies (DL/UA) gravitate towards FLL instead of MIA?"

The answer is likely to be that as a non-hub carrier it's harder to poach high-value customers from the OA hub, and there are no legacy hubs at FLL.

That said here is a list of the top markets where UA/DL carry a decent amount of passengers, and a listing for ONLY UA/DL what their fares were for FLL vs MIA expressed as FLL % higher or lower than MIA. In this sample there are 39 markets where their fares to MIA where higher than FLL and 17 where FLL was higher.

This is belied by the fact that they carried 49% more passengers to/from FLL. It's likely that if they were taking the same numbers from each, the fares would probably (relatively) swing to where FLL would be higher than is shown here. There are also many other considerations that need to be considered, such as markets that AA has a nonstop from MIA will be impacted.

Basically what I'm saying is, here is the data, don't read too much into it because it would take a week at least to do a proper analysis.

ATL….-9%
AUS….-26%
BDL….-16%
BHM….18%
BNA….0%
BOS….-18%
BUF….-18%
BWI….-10%
CHS….15%
CLE….3%
CLT….4%
CMH….0%
CVG….12%
DCA….-14%
DEN….-3%
DFW….5%
DTW….-4%
EWR….-13%
GRR….-10%
GSO….5%
IAD….-12%
IAH….-4%
IND….-2%
JFK….-9%
LAS….2%
LAX….-11%
LGA….-3%
MCI….-17%
MDW….-2%
MEM….-6%
MKE….-20%
MSN….4%
MSP….-6%
MSY….5%
OKC….2%
OMA….2%
ORD….-2%
ORF….19%
PDX….-22%
PHL….-5%
PHX….-3%
PIT….-4%
RDU….-20%
RIC….-17%
ROC….-20%
SAN….8%
SAT….-1%
SDF….18%
SEA….-10%
SFO….0%
SLC….-8%
SMF….-22%
SNA….-11%
STL….2%
SYR….-20%
TUL….25%
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:25 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 46):
The answer is likely to be that as a non-hub carrier it's harder to poach high-value customers from the OA hub, and there are no legacy hubs at FLL.

Yet, there is a lot of competition at FLL because of B6, and to some extent VX on transcon routes. WN also can compete though via connections/one-stops. That is going to make certain routes more lower yielding ex FLL just by nature of competition.

I don't think UA would go on SFO-MIA given that it's weak in South Florida (and it has just one daily SFO-FLL), but it's challenges are inherent to UA, not the AA dominance in MIA. Probably UA won't cover SFO-TPA either.

pmUS used to be in MIA. AirTran used to cover BWI-MIA. There are fewer examples now because f of the several mergers, but these smaller carriers did once court traffic into/out of Miami Dade county despite AA dominating the airport.

DL is able to offer flights including LAX-MIA, but it's also adding MCO-MIA. It's timed for the MCO-GRU flight. DL is relying on some MIA based point of sale, and thus didn't choose FLL in either of those scenarios.

On another note, some are ignoring ULCCs from the discussion, but AA isn't. AA is fare matching and defending it's turf against F9 in MIA which might lead to lower fares. The pmUS management is taking this approach in many markets, even discounting routes like LGA-DTW against NK which the old AA (pmAA) never did.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8377
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 46):
You guys are all fighting over this like children.

The original question was "Why do legacies (DL/UA) gravitate towards FLL instead of MIA?"

No....THIS was the original question:

Quoting BTVB6Flyer (Thread starter):
Could it be the long awaited TPA-SFO nonstop, that Tampa has been clamoring for?

Why S Florida always gets dragged in, IDK
 
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: UA To Begin TPA-SFO?

Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 47):

On another note, some are ignoring ULCCs from the discussion, but AA isn't. AA is fare matching and defending it's turf against F9 in MIA which might lead to lower fares. The pmUS management is taking this approach in many markets, even discounting routes like LGA-DTW against NK which the old AA (pmAA) never did.

And this is exactly how AA reporting a -9% collapse in domestic yield this quarter when both DL and UA are only -2.5% or so.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 46):
DFW….5%
CLT….4%
ORD….-2%
PHL….-5%

These are very telling numbers. Despite DFW-MIA being a major hub-to-hub of AA, DFW-FLL actually commands 5% higher fares than DFW-MIA, while from the other 3 large hubs, AA isn't commanding much of a meaningful premium at all.

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 46):
SFO….0%

This data point proves that UA didn't make the wrong choice picking SFO-FLL over SFO-MIA, despite rtalk25 constantly conjecturing UA made the wrong choice and SoFL weakness filler filler.

Thanks RDH3E for providing excellent data to disprove the fantasy notion that MIA is a gold pot and FLL is a podunkville.

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